Jackson squished the fish on Sunday
After every week, I post the weekly passing numbers to look at which passers produced the best stats of the week. The formula is pretty simple.
It begins with Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which is (Passing Yards + 20*Passing TDs – 45*INTs – Sack Yards Lost) divided by (Pass Attempts + Sacks). Let’s begin with the best passing performance of week one, which belongs to Ravens second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s young quarterback went 17/20 for 324 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs, while taking 1 sack and losing one yard. That means Jackson had 423 Adjusted Net Yards on 21 dropbacks, or 20.14 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.
The NFL as a whole in week 1 averaged 7.08 ANY/A, which sets our baseline for average play. This means Jackson was 13.06 ANY/A above average over 21 dropbacks, which means he produced 274 Adjusted Net Yards of value over average. That, of course, was the most in the NFL.
It also harkens back to one of the greatest performances in NFL history by another Baltimore quarterback: Johnny Unitas. Historians have long regarded Unitas’s game against the 1967 Falcons as one of the best ever, and the stats confirm that. In a ‘glitch in the matrix’ moment, the old Baltimore QB went 17/20 against the Falcons that day, for 370 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. Both Unitas and now Jackson are part of the extremely rare 20/20 club: averaging 20 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt on 20+ pass attempts. In fact, Baltimore has been involved in all three games: Unitas against the Falcons in ’67, Jackson against the Dolphins in week 1 of 2019, and what is the greatest statistical game in NFL history: Joe Namath (in a shootout with Unitas) against Baltimore in 1972.
The full week 1 passing stats below:
| Rk | Quarterback | Tm | Opp | Result | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | ANY/A | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | MIA | W 59-10 | 20 | 324 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20.14 | 274 |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | W 35-17 | 32 | 405 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.16 | 258 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | JAX | W 40-26 | 33 | 378 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.27 | 204 |
| 4 | Tom Brady | NWE | PIT | W 33-3 | 36 | 341 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10.65 | 132 |
| 5 | Case Keenum | WAS | PHI | L 27-32 | 44 | 380 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9.56 | 111 |
| 6 | Derek Carr | OAK | DEN | W 24-16 | 26 | 259 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.73 | 95 |
| 7 | Carson Wentz | PHI | WAS | W 32-27 | 39 | 313 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.33 | 90 |
| 8 | Gardner Minshew II | JAX | KAN | L 26-40 | 25 | 275 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10.27 | 83 |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford | DET | ARI | T 27-27 | 45 | 385 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 8.77 | 81 |
| 10 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | CLE | W 43-13 | 24 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 9.86 | 78 |
| 11 | Philip Rivers | LAC | IND | W 30-24 | 34 | 333 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 8.55 | 56 |
| 12 | Drew Brees | NOR | HOU | W 30-28 | 43 | 370 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8.11 | 45 |
| 13 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | ATL | W 28-12 | 10 | 98 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10.64 | 39 |
| 14 | Nick Foles | JAX | KAN | L 26-40 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.88 | 38 |
| 15 | Andy Dalton | CIN | SEA | L 20-21 | 51 | 418 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 7.77 | 38 |
| 16 | Robert Griffin | BAL | MIA | W 59-10 | 6 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.5 | 32 |
| 17 | Russell Wilson | SEA | CIN | W 21-20 | 20 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 8.38 | 31 |
| 18 | Joe Flacco | DEN | OAK | L 16-24 | 31 | 268 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 7.91 | 28 |
| 19 | Julian Edelman | NWE | PIT | W 33-3 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 25 |
| 20 | Jacoby Brissett | IND | LAC | L 24-30 | 27 | 190 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7.34 | 8 |
| 21 | Eli Manning | NYG | DAL | L 17-35 | 44 | 306 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7.16 | 3 |
| 22 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | NOR | L 28-30 | 30 | 268 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 6.92 | -6 |
| 23 | Matt Moore | KAN | JAX | W 40-26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 |
| 24 | Daniel Jones | NYG | DAL | L 17-35 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.25 | -11 |
| 25 | Aaron Rodgers | GNB | CHI | W 10-3 | 30 | 203 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 5.31 | -62 |
| 26 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | BAL | L 10-59 | 29 | 185 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -65 |
| 27 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SFO | TAM | W 31-17 | 27 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4.75 | -65 |
| 28 | Josh Rosen | MIA | BAL | L 10-59 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11.5 | -74 |
| 29 | Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | W 17-16 | 37 | 254 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4.53 | -97 |
| 30 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | NWE | L 3-33 | 47 | 276 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.81 | -109 |
| 31 | Cam Newton | CAR | LAR | L 27-30 | 38 | 239 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 4.17 | -119 |
| 32 | Jared Goff | LAR | CAR | W 30-27 | 39 | 186 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.95 | -125 |
| 33 | Matt Ryan | ATL | MIN | L 12-28 | 46 | 304 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 4.44 | -132 |
| 34 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | BUF | L 16-17 | 41 | 175 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 3.89 | -144 |
| 35 | Kyler Murray | ARI | DET | T 27-27 | 54 | 308 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 4.58 | -148 |
| 36 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | LAR | L 13-43 | 38 | 285 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 3 | -176 |
| 37 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | GNB | L 3-10 | 45 | 228 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 3.26 | -191 |
| 38 | Jameis Winston | TAM | SFO | L 17-31 | 36 | 194 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1.51 | -217 |
| Total | 1144 | 8942 | 61 | 22 | 80 | 501 | 7.08 | 0 |
Some notes:
- The NFL as a whole in week 1 had a passer rating of 100.2. The majority of starting quarterbacks had a passer rating of over 105. So much for offenses being behind defenses to start the year because of limited play in preseason: that seems to be limited to what goes on in Soldier Field.
- Case Keenum, Gardner Minshew II, and Matthew Stafford were the three quarterbacks with really good stats who failed to win. The problem for them? Keenum went against Carson Wentz and Minshew faced Patrick Mahomes, and both of those quarterbacks had great games, too. As for Stafford, it was another case of the Lions blowing a game (this time ending in a tie) that the team probably should have won.
- Number one overall pick Kyler Murray had an uneven debut. The Cardinals first 9 drives ended in 7 punts, 1 interception, and 1 field goal on a drive that began on the Lions 8-yard line; it was an awful performance. Arizona gained just 53 yards combined on these 9 drives! But over the team’s next five drives, Murray led the Cardinals to 300 yards and five scores: two touchdowns and three field goals. The final drive, in overtime, stalled after 29 yards, and the game ended in a tie.
- Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers were the only quarterbacks who played poorly in the win: the other 11 quarterbacks (remember the tie) threw 30 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions, while posting a combined passer rating of 135.4! But these four all struggled and were lucky to be opposite four quarterbacks who played even worse: Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, and Mitchell Trubisky.
The main lesson of week 1 is that the NFL remains a passing league. In three of the games — Washington/Philadelphia, Cincinnati/Seattle, and Rams/Panthers — the two teams had very similar passing performances, and all three games were close games throughout. In the other 13 games, one team was significantly better at passing than its opponent, and those teams went 12-0-1. Here are the 16 teams that won the passing battle, and their passing ANY/A Value margin. Winners in blue, losers in red, ties in green.
