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Implied SRS Ratings for NFL in 2017

Back in May, CG Technology released point spreads for all NFL games during the first 16 weeks of the 2016 season. We can use these lines to generate implied NFL ratings — as of May 10, 2017 — for this upcoming season.

Basically, we take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field, and then determine how by many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B.  When the Seahawks are favored by 13.5 points in a home game against the Rams, we can take this to mean that Vegas thinks the Seahawks are 10.5 points better than Los Angeles.  When Seattle is a 6-point road favorite in Los Angeles against the Rams, that tells us that Vegas thinks the Seahawks are 9 points better than the Rams.  That’s just two games, of course: Using the iterative SRS process, we can generate season ratings based on the 240 point spreads involved. Here are those ratings, again as of May 10, 2017.

Here’s how to read the table below. After adjusting for home field, the Patriots are expected to beat their average opponent by 6.6 points. On average, New England’s opponents (after adjusting for *their* strength of schedule) are 0.3 points better than average, which means the Patriots are expected to be 6.8 points better than average (difference due to rounding). That’s the best in the league, far ahead of the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Packers (the only other teams that are 4 points better than average).

RkTeamAvg. Exp MOVSOSExp SRS
1Patriots6.60.36.8
2Cowboys4.30.44.6
3Seahawks5.1-0.84.4
4Packers4.20.14.3
5Steelers3.9-0.13.8
6Falcons3.10.63.8
7Raiders1.80.62.4
8Chiefs1.10.71.8
9Broncos0.70.51.2
10Giants0.90.31.2
11Vikings0.4-0.10.3
12Buccaneers-0.40.60.3
13Panthers0.4-0.20.3
14Dolphins-0.40.60.2
15Colts1.2-1.10.1
16Texans0.6-0.50.1
17Ravens0.5-0.40.1
18Cardinals1.1-1.00.1
19Titans0.6-0.6-0.1
20Lions-0.1-0.1-0.3
21Bengals0.2-0.6-0.4
22Eagles-0.4-0.1-0.5
23Redskins-1.00.4-0.6
24Saints-0.80.2-0.6
25Bills-2.00.7-1.3
26Chargers-2.40.3-2.1
27Jaguars-1.7-1.1-2.8
28Bears-4.30.1-4.2
29Rams-5.10.3-4.8
30Jets-5.10.1-4.9
3149ers-6.20.1-6.1
32Browns-6.5-0.4-7.0

We can also generate the implied rating for each game. That’s done in the table below, which is fully sortable and searchable.  For example, type in Patriots:

WeekTeamOppH/RSpreadSOSImpl Rtng
1PatriotsChiefsHome-71.85.8
1SteelersBrownsRoad-9-7.05.0
1FalconsBearsRoad-6-4.24.8
1PackersSeahawksHome-34.44.4
1SeahawksPackersRoad34.34.3
1RaidersTitansRoad-1-0.13.9
1CowboysGiantsHome-51.23.2
1ChiefsPatriotsRoad76.82.8
1GiantsCowboysRoad54.62.6
1BuccaneersDolphinsRoad1.50.21.7
1RavensBengalsRoad1-0.41.6
1Panthers49ersRoad-4.5-6.11.4
1ColtsRamsRoad-3-4.81.2
1SaintsVikingsRoad30.30.3
1ChargersBroncosRoad41.20.2
1LionsCardinalsHome-30.10.1
1CardinalsLionsRoad3-0.3-0.3
1RedskinsEaglesHome-3-0.5-0.5
1EaglesRedskinsRoad3-0.6-0.6
1VikingsSaintsHome-3-0.6-0.6
1BroncosChargersHome-4-2.1-1.1
1DolphinsBuccaneersHome-1.50.3-1.2
1TexansJaguarsHome-4.5-2.8-1.3
1JaguarsTexansRoad4.50.1-1.4
1TitansRaidersHome12.4-1.6
1BengalsRavensHome-10.1-1.9
1BillsJetsHome-6-4.9-1.9
1JetsBillsRoad6-1.3-4.3
1BearsFalconsHome63.8-5.2
1RamsColtsHome30.1-5.9
149ersPanthersHome4.50.3-7.2
1BrownsSteelersHome93.8-8.2
2PatriotsSaintsRoad-4.5-0.66.9
2PackersFalconsRoad2.53.84.3
2CowboysBroncosRoad01.24.2
2Seahawks49ersHome-13-6.13.9
2FalconsPackersHome-2.54.33.8
2SteelersVikingsHome-60.33.3
2BroncosCowboysHome04.61.6
2TitansJaguarsRoad-1-2.81.2
2LionsGiantsRoad31.21.2
2EaglesChiefsRoad41.80.8
2VikingsSteelersRoad63.80.8
2TexansBengalsRoad2-0.40.6
2RaidersJetsHome-8.5-4.90.6
2ChiefsEaglesHome-4-0.50.5
2RedskinsRamsRoad-2-4.80.2
2CardinalsColtsRoad30.10.1
2ColtsCardinalsHome-30.10.1
2DolphinsChargersRoad1-2.1-0.1
2BuccaneersBearsHome-7-4.2-0.2
2BillsPanthersRoad3.50.3-0.2
2GiantsLionsHome-3-0.3-0.3
2RavensBrownsHome-9.5-7.0-0.5
2SaintsPatriotsHome4.56.8-0.7
2PanthersBillsHome-3.5-1.3-0.8
2BengalsTexansHome-20.1-0.9
2ChargersDolphinsHome-10.2-1.8
2JetsRaidersRoad8.52.4-3.1
2BearsBuccaneersRoad70.3-3.7
2JaguarsTitansHome1-0.1-4.1
2RamsRedskinsHome2-0.6-5.6
249ersSeahawksRoad134.4-5.6
2BrownsRavensRoad9.50.1-6.4
3PatriotsTexansHome-90.16.1
3CowboysCardinalsRoad-20.15.1
3SeahawksTitansRoad-2-0.14.9
3SteelersBearsRoad-5.5-4.24.3
3FalconsLionsRoad-1.5-0.34.2
3PackersBengalsHome-7-0.43.6
3RaidersRedskinsRoad-1-0.63.4
3ChiefsChargersRoad-1.5-2.12.4
3GiantsEaglesRoad1-0.51.5
3TexansPatriotsRoad96.80.8
3BroncosBillsRoad1-1.30.7
3BuccaneersVikingsRoad30.30.3
3BengalsPackersRoad74.30.3
3VikingsBuccaneersHome-30.30.3
3SaintsPanthersRoad30.30.3
3DolphinsJetsRoad-2-4.90.1
3CardinalsCowboysHome24.6-0.4
3ColtsBrownsHome-9.5-7.0-0.5
3PanthersSaintsHome-3-0.6-0.6
3TitansSeahawksHome24.4-0.6
3LionsFalconsHome1.53.8-0.7
3BillsBroncosHome-11.2-0.8
3EaglesGiantsHome-11.2-0.8
3RavensJaguarsLond-1.5-2.8-1.3
3JaguarsRavensLond1.50.1-1.4
3RedskinsRaidersHome12.4-1.6
3ChargersChiefsHome1.51.8-2.7
3Rams49ersRoad1.5-6.1-4.6
3BearsSteelersHome5.53.8-4.7
3JetsDolphinsHome20.2-4.8
349ersRamsHome-1.5-4.8-6.3
3BrownsColtsRoad9.50.1-6.4
4PatriotsPanthersHome-90.36.3
4CowboysRamsHome-12.5-4.84.7
4SteelersRavensRoad-1.50.14.6
4SeahawksColtsHome-70.14.1
4FalconsBillsHome-7.5-1.33.2
4DolphinsSaintsLond-3-0.62.4
4PackersBearsHome-9.5-4.22.3
4RaidersBroncosRoad21.22.2
4BroncosRaidersHome-22.41.4
4ChiefsRedskinsHome-5-0.61.4
4PanthersPatriotsRoad96.80.8
4GiantsBuccaneersRoad2.50.30.8
4BuccaneersGiantsHome-2.51.20.7
4ColtsSeahawksRoad74.40.4
4LionsVikingsRoad30.30.3
4TitansTexansRoad30.10.1
4TexansTitansHome-3-0.1-0.1
4Cardinals49ersHome-9-6.1-0.1
4RedskinsChiefsRoad51.8-0.2
4VikingsLionsHome-3-0.3-0.3
4BengalsBrownsRoad-3.5-7.0-0.5
4EaglesChargersRoad1.5-2.1-0.6
4RavensSteelersHome1.53.8-0.7
4BillsFalconsRoad7.53.8-0.7
4ChargersEaglesHome-1.5-0.5-2.0
4BearsPackersRoad9.54.3-2.2
4SaintsDolphinsLond30.2-2.8
4JaguarsJetsRoad1-4.9-2.9
4JetsJaguarsHome-1-2.8-4.8
4RamsCowboysRoad12.54.6-4.9
449ersCardinalsRoad90.1-5.9
4BrownsBengalsHome3.5-0.4-6.9
5PatriotsBuccaneersRoad-30.36.3
5PackersCowboysRoad34.64.6
5CowboysPackersHome-34.34.3
5SeahawksRamsRoad-6-4.84.2
5SteelersJaguarsHome-9-2.83.2
5ChiefsTexansRoad10.12.1
5GiantsChargersHome-7-2.11.9
5RaidersRavensHome-4.50.11.6
5RavensRaidersRoad4.52.40.9
5BuccaneersPatriotsHome36.80.8
5VikingsBearsRoad-2-4.20.8
5PanthersLionsRoad2-0.30.7
5CardinalsEaglesRoad2-0.50.5
5TitansDolphinsRoad30.20.2
5DolphinsTitansHome-3-0.1-0.1
5Colts49ersHome-9-6.1-0.1
5TexansChiefsHome-11.8-0.2
5LionsPanthersHome-20.3-0.7
5BengalsBillsHome-3.5-1.3-0.8
5BillsBengalsRoad3.5-0.4-0.9
5EaglesCardinalsHome-20.1-0.9
5JaguarsSteelersRoad93.8-2.2
5ChargersGiantsRoad71.2-2.8
5JetsBrownsRoad0-7.0-4.0
5RamsSeahawksHome64.4-4.6
5BearsVikingsHome20.3-4.7
549ersColtsRoad90.1-5.9
5BrownsJetsHome0-4.9-7.9
6PatriotsJetsRoad-9.5-4.97.6
6PackersVikingsRoad-1.50.34.8
6FalconsDolphinsHome-6.50.23.7
6SteelersChiefsRoad1.51.83.3
6RaidersChargersHome-8-2.12.9
6ChiefsSteelersHome-1.53.82.3
6GiantsBroncosRoad31.21.2
6BroncosGiantsHome-31.21.2
6PanthersEaglesHome-4-0.50.5
6CardinalsBuccaneersHome-30.30.3
6DolphinsFalconsRoad6.53.80.3
6TitansColtsHome-30.10.1
6BuccaneersCardinalsRoad30.10.1
6ColtsTitansRoad3-0.1-0.1
6LionsSaintsRoad2.5-0.6-0.1
6RavensBearsHome-7-4.2-0.2
6VikingsPackersHome1.54.3-0.2
6TexansBrownsHome-9.5-7.0-0.5
6EaglesPanthersRoad40.3-0.7
6SaintsLionsHome-2.5-0.3-0.8
6Redskins49ersHome-8-6.1-1.1
6ChargersRaidersRoad82.4-2.6
6RamsJaguarsRoad3.5-2.8-3.3
6BearsRavensRoad70.1-3.9
6JaguarsRamsHome-3.5-4.8-4.3
649ersRedskinsRoad8-0.6-5.6
6JetsPatriotsHome9.56.8-5.7
6BrownsTexansRoad9.50.1-6.4
7PatriotsFalconsHome-6.53.87.3
7Cowboys49ersRoad-8.5-6.15.4
7SeahawksGiantsRoad01.24.2
7PackersSaintsHome-7.5-0.63.9
7SteelersBengalsHome-7-0.43.6
7FalconsPatriotsRoad6.56.83.3
7ChiefsRaidersRoad32.42.4
7RaidersChiefsHome-31.81.8
7GiantsSeahawksHome04.41.4
7TitansBrownsRoad-5-7.01.0
7BroncosChargersRoad0-2.10.9
7ColtsJaguarsHome-6.5-2.80.7
7VikingsRavensHome-3.50.10.6
7DolphinsJetsHome-8.5-4.90.6
7PanthersBearsRoad-1.5-4.20.3
7BuccaneersBillsRoad1.5-1.30.2
7RedskinsEaglesRoad2.5-0.50.0
7RavensVikingsRoad3.50.3-0.2
7SaintsPackersRoad7.54.3-0.2
7BengalsSteelersRoad73.8-0.2
7EaglesRedskinsHome-2.5-0.6-1.1
7BillsBuccaneersHome-1.50.3-1.2
7ChargersBroncosHome01.2-1.8
7CardinalsRamsLond-3-4.8-1.8
7RamsCardinalsLond30.1-2.9
7JaguarsColtsRoad6.50.1-3.4
7BearsPanthersHome1.50.3-4.2
7JetsDolphinsRoad8.50.2-5.3
749ersCowboysHome8.54.6-6.9
7BrownsTitansHome5-0.1-8.1
8PatriotsChargersHome-12.5-2.17.4
8FalconsJetsRoad-7-4.95.1
8CowboysRedskinsRoad-2.5-0.64.9
8SeahawksTexansHome-7.50.14.6
8SteelersLionsRoad-1.5-0.34.2
8RaidersBillsRoad-1.5-1.33.2
8BroncosChiefsRoad31.81.8
8ChiefsBroncosHome-31.21.2
8PanthersBuccaneersRoad2.50.30.8
8RavensDolphinsHome-30.20.2
8BengalsColtsHome-30.10.1
8DolphinsRavensRoad30.10.1
8VikingsBrownsLond-7-7.00.0
8TexansSeahawksRoad7.54.4-0.1
8BuccaneersPanthersHome-2.50.3-0.2
8ColtsBengalsRoad3-0.4-0.4
8LionsSteelersHome1.53.8-0.7
8RedskinsCowboysHome2.54.6-0.9
8SaintsBearsHome-6-4.2-1.2
8Eagles49ersHome-7.5-6.1-1.6
8BillsRaidersHome1.52.4-2.1
8ChargersPatriotsRoad12.56.8-2.7
8BearsSaintsRoad6-0.6-3.6
849ersEaglesRoad7.5-0.5-5.0
8JetsFalconsHome73.8-6.2
8BrownsVikingsLond70.3-6.7
9CowboysChiefsHome-6.51.85.3
9SeahawksRedskinsHome-8-0.64.4
9FalconsPanthersRoad-10.34.3
9PackersLionsHome-7.5-0.34.2
9RaidersDolphinsRoad10.22.2
9BroncosEaglesRoad1-0.51.5
9ChiefsCowboysRoad6.54.61.1
9BuccaneersSaintsRoad1.5-0.60.9
9GiantsRamsHome-8.5-4.80.7
9DolphinsRaidersHome-12.40.4
9RavensTitansRoad2.5-0.10.4
9Cardinals49ersRoad-3.5-6.10.4
9BengalsJaguarsRoad0-2.80.2
9TexansColtsHome-30.10.1
9ColtsTexansRoad30.10.1
9LionsPackersRoad7.54.3-0.2
9PanthersFalconsHome13.8-0.2
9TitansRavensHome-2.50.1-0.4
9BillsJetsRoad-1.5-4.9-0.4
9RedskinsSeahawksRoad84.4-0.6
9EaglesBroncosHome-11.2-0.8
9SaintsBuccaneersHome-1.50.3-1.2
9JaguarsBengalsHome0-0.4-3.4
9RamsGiantsRoad8.51.2-4.3
9JetsBillsHome1.5-1.3-5.8
949ersCardinalsHome3.50.1-6.4
10PatriotsBroncosRoad-31.27.2
10CowboysFalconsRoad13.85.8
10PackersBearsRoad-6.5-4.25.3
10SeahawksCardinalsRoad-1.50.14.6
10SteelersColtsRoad-10.14.1
10FalconsCowboysHome-14.62.6
10Giants49ersRoad-4.5-6.11.4
10TexansRamsRoad-3-4.81.2
10VikingsRedskinsRoad1.5-0.60.9
10BroncosPatriotsHome36.80.8
10DolphinsPanthersRoad30.30.3
10PanthersDolphinsHome-30.20.2
10BuccaneersJetsHome-8-4.90.1
10BengalsTitansRoad3-0.1-0.1
10CardinalsSeahawksHome1.54.4-0.1
10ColtsSteelersHome13.8-0.2
10SaintsBillsRoad2-1.3-0.3
10TitansBengalsHome-3-0.4-0.4
10RedskinsVikingsHome-1.50.3-1.2
10LionsBrownsHome-8.5-7.0-1.5
10BillsSaintsHome-2-0.6-1.6
10JaguarsChargersHome-3-2.1-2.1
10ChargersJaguarsRoad3-2.8-2.8
10JetsBuccaneersRoad80.3-4.7
10BearsPackersHome6.54.3-5.2
10BrownsLionsRoad8.5-0.3-5.8
10RamsTexansHome30.1-5.9
1049ersGiantsHome4.51.2-6.3
11RaidersPatriotsMex1.56.85.3
11FalconsSeahawksRoad34.44.4
11PackersRavensHome-70.14.1
11PatriotsRaidersMex-1.52.43.9
11SeahawksFalconsHome-33.83.8
11CowboysEaglesHome-7-0.53.5
11SteelersTitansHome-6.5-0.13.4
11ChiefsGiantsRoad21.22.2
11GiantsChiefsHome-21.80.8
11BengalsBroncosRoad3.51.20.7
11EaglesCowboysRoad74.60.6
11CardinalsTexansRoad2.50.10.6
11RavensPackersRoad74.30.3
11TitansSteelersRoad6.53.80.3
11BroncosBengalsHome-3.5-0.40.1
11RedskinsSaintsRoad2.5-0.6-0.1
11LionsBearsRoad-1-4.2-0.2
11VikingsRamsHome-7.5-4.8-0.3
11TexansCardinalsHome-2.50.1-0.4
11JaguarsBrownsRoad-3-7.0-1.0
11SaintsRedskinsHome-2.5-0.6-1.1
11BillsChargersRoad2-2.1-1.1
11ChargersBillsHome-2-1.3-2.3
11RamsVikingsRoad7.50.3-4.2
11BearsLionsHome1-0.3-4.3
11BrownsJaguarsHome3-2.8-8.8
12PatriotsDolphinsHome-90.26.2
12CowboysChargersHome-10-2.14.9
12Seahawks49ersRoad-7.5-6.14.4
12SteelersPackersHome-34.34.3
12FalconsBuccaneersHome-6.50.33.8
12PackersSteelersRoad33.83.8
12BroncosRaidersRoad32.42.4
12ChiefsBillsHome-6-1.31.7
12GiantsRedskinsRoad1-0.61.4
12RaidersBroncosHome-31.21.2
12PanthersJetsRoad-3-4.91.1
12DolphinsPatriotsRoad96.80.8
12CardinalsJaguarsHome-6.5-2.80.7
12BuccaneersFalconsRoad6.53.80.3
12VikingsLionsRoad2.5-0.30.2
12SaintsRamsRoad-2-4.80.2
12TitansColtsRoad30.10.1
12RavensTexansHome-30.10.1
12TexansRavensRoad30.10.1
12ColtsTitansHome-3-0.1-0.1
12LionsVikingsHome-2.50.3-0.2
12RedskinsGiantsHome-11.2-0.8
12BillsChiefsRoad61.8-1.2
12EaglesBearsHome-6-4.2-1.2
12BengalsBrownsHome-8.5-7.0-1.5
12ChargersCowboysRoad104.6-2.4
12JaguarsCardinalsRoad6.50.1-3.4
12BearsEaglesRoad6-0.5-3.5
12RamsSaintsHome2-0.6-5.6
12JetsPanthersHome30.3-5.7
12BrownsBengalsRoad8.5-0.4-5.9
1249ersSeahawksHome7.54.4-6.1
13PatriotsBillsRoad-7-1.38.7
13PackersBuccaneersHome-70.34.3
13SteelersBengalsRoad-1-0.43.6
13SeahawksEaglesHome-7-0.53.5
13CowboysRedskinsHome-7-0.63.4
13FalconsVikingsHome-5.50.32.8
13ChiefsJetsRoad-4.5-4.92.6
13GiantsRaidersRoad32.42.4
13BroncosDolphinsRoad10.22.2
13VikingsFalconsRoad5.53.81.3
13ColtsJaguarsRoad-1-2.81.2
13RaidersGiantsHome-31.21.2
13CardinalsRamsHome-8.5-4.80.7
13RedskinsCowboysRoad74.60.6
13TexansTitansRoad2.5-0.10.4
13EaglesSeahawksRoad74.40.4
13BuccaneersPackersRoad74.30.3
13LionsRavensRoad30.10.1
13PanthersSaintsRoad2.5-0.6-0.1
13BengalsSteelersHome13.8-0.2
13SaintsPanthersHome-2.50.3-0.2
13RavensLionsHome-3-0.3-0.3
13TitansTexansHome-2.50.1-0.4
13DolphinsBroncosHome-11.2-0.8
13ChargersBrownsHome-7-7.0-3.0
13BillsPatriotsHome76.8-3.2
13JaguarsColtsHome10.1-3.9
13Bears49ersHome-4-6.1-5.1
1349ersBearsRoad4-4.2-5.2
13RamsCardinalsRoad8.50.1-5.4
13JetsChiefsHome4.51.8-5.7
13BrownsChargersRoad7-2.1-6.1
14PatriotsDolphinsRoad-40.27.2
14PackersBrownsRoad-9.5-7.05.5
14CowboysGiantsRoad-11.25.2
14SeahawksJaguarsRoad-4-2.84.2
14FalconsSaintsHome-7-0.63.4
14SteelersRavensHome-60.13.1
14ChiefsRaidersHome-32.42.4
14RaidersChiefsRoad31.81.8
14BroncosJetsHome-9-4.91.1
14RavensSteelersRoad63.80.8
14GiantsCowboysHome14.60.6
14PanthersVikingsHome-30.30.3
14LionsBuccaneersRoad30.30.3
14VikingsPanthersRoad30.30.3
14ColtsBillsRoad1.5-1.30.2
14TitansCardinalsRoad30.10.1
14CardinalsTitansHome-3-0.1-0.1
14Texans49ersHome-9-6.1-0.1
14DolphinsPatriotsHome46.8-0.2
14SaintsFalconsRoad73.8-0.2
14BuccaneersLionsHome-3-0.3-0.3
14EaglesRamsRoad-1.5-4.8-0.3
14RedskinsChargersRoad1.5-2.1-0.6
14BengalsBearsHome-6.5-4.2-0.7
14BillsColtsHome-1.50.1-1.4
14ChargersRedskinsHome-1.5-0.6-2.1
14JaguarsSeahawksHome44.4-2.6
14BearsBengalsRoad6.5-0.4-3.9
14JetsBroncosRoad91.2-4.8
14RamsEaglesHome1.5-0.5-5.0
1449ersTexansRoad90.1-5.9
14BrownsPackersHome9.54.3-8.2
15PatriotsSteelersRoad-1.53.88.3
15SeahawksRamsHome-13.5-4.85.7
15CowboysRaidersRoad02.45.4
15PackersPanthersRoad-20.35.3
15FalconsBuccaneersRoad-1.50.34.8
15SteelersPatriotsHome1.56.82.3
15BroncosColtsRoad10.12.1
15RaidersCowboysHome04.61.6
15TexansJaguarsRoad-1-2.81.2
15ChiefsChargersHome-6-2.10.9
15EaglesGiantsRoad3.51.20.7
15CardinalsRedskinsRoad2-0.60.4
15BengalsVikingsRoad30.30.3
15DolphinsBillsRoad1.5-1.30.2
15RavensBrownsRoad-4-7.00.0
15GiantsEaglesHome-3.5-0.50.0
15Titans49ersRoad-3-6.1-0.1
15VikingsBengalsHome-3-0.4-0.4
15PanthersPackersHome24.3-0.7
15BuccaneersFalconsHome1.53.8-0.7
15ColtsBroncosHome-11.2-0.8
15RedskinsCardinalsHome-20.1-0.9
15ChargersChiefsRoad61.8-1.2
15LionsBearsHome-6-4.2-1.2
15BillsDolphinsHome-1.50.2-1.3
15SaintsJetsHome-6.5-4.9-1.4
15BearsLionsRoad6-0.3-3.3
15JaguarsTexansHome10.1-3.9
15JetsSaintsRoad6.5-0.6-4.1
1549ersTitansHome3-0.1-6.1
15RamsSeahawksRoad13.54.4-6.1
15BrownsRavensHome40.1-6.9
16PatriotsBillsHome-11.5-1.37.2
16SeahawksCowboysRoad34.64.6
16CowboysSeahawksHome-34.44.4
16SteelersTexansRoad-10.14.1
16PackersVikingsHome-6.50.33.8
16RaidersEaglesRoad-1-0.53.5
16FalconsSaintsRoad0-0.62.4
16ChiefsDolphinsHome-4.50.21.7
16BroncosRedskinsRoad1-0.61.4
16GiantsCardinalsRoad20.11.1
16VikingsPackersRoad6.54.30.8
16SaintsFalconsHome03.80.8
16DolphinsChiefsRoad4.51.80.3
16PanthersBuccaneersHome-30.30.3
16BuccaneersPanthersRoad30.30.3
16CardinalsGiantsHome-21.20.2
16RavensColtsHome-30.10.1
16ColtsRavensRoad30.10.1
16TexansSteelersHome13.8-0.2
16BengalsLionsHome-3-0.3-0.3
16LionsBengalsRoad3-0.4-0.4
16RedskinsBroncosHome-11.2-0.8
16TitansRamsHome-7-4.8-0.8
16EaglesRaidersHome12.4-1.6
16BillsPatriotsRoad11.56.8-1.7
16ChargersJetsRoad0-4.9-1.9
16Jaguars49ersRoad-1-6.1-2.1
16RamsTitansRoad7-0.1-4.1
16JetsChargersHome0-2.1-5.1
16BearsBrownsHome-4.5-7.0-5.5
16BrownsBearsRoad4.5-4.2-5.7
1649ersJaguarsHome1-2.8-6.8

Vegas thinks New England should be favored by 7 points in Buffalo, a team with a -1.3 rating. That implies that the Patriots are 8.7 points better than average! That’s the highest rating for any team in any game this year. But there’s some variance: for whatever reason, New England is only a 1.5 point favorite against the Raiders in Mexico City! That doesn’t make much sense given that it is a neutral site game, so Vegas must think Oakland should get some home field points for that one.

Speaking of home field, note the Chargers don’t seem to be getting much love from Vegas for their new games in Los Angeles. San Diego is a 4-point road dog in Denver, which would imply them being a 2-home favorite against the Broncos; instead, that game is a pick’em. Similarly, San Diego is a 6-point road dog in Kansas City, but a 1.5-point underdog against the Chiefs at home. In other words, be careful before just assuming the Chargers should get 3 points for home games this year.

Much weirder is another team that isn’t getting much home love: Seattle. If you type “Seahawks” into the search box above, and sort by implied rating, you’ll see that Seattle’s lowest four ratings all come at home. The Seahawks are only 7-point favorites at home against the Eagles and Colts, just 3-point home favorites against Atlanta, and “only” 13 point home favorites against the 49ers (hey, Seattle is a 7.5-point road favorite in San Francisco). Meanwhile, in a cross country trip against a potentially good Tennessee team, the Seahawks are 2-point favorites. Maybe Vegas isn’t buying into Seattle’s home field advantage in 2017?

  • Anders

    It will be interesting to see how much the Cowboys lines will move with Zeke’s suspension.

  • Richie

    Chase, did you do this for 2016? I can’t find it. I see the article for college football and I can find 2015.

    I wanted to compare implied 2016 ratings to actual 2016 ratings.

    • I thought I did, but I can’t find it either.

      • Tom

        This is one of my favorite posts, I usually look for it, don’t think you did it for 2016.

  • Last year, the Raiders certainly had the crowd’s support in Mexico City, and it appeared to many fans that they had the refs’ support as well:

    “That was the most one-sided officiating I’ve seen all season. In the first quarter, DeAndre Hopkins was incorrectly called out of bounds on a sure touchdown, and Houston settled for a field goal. On the next drive, Braxton Miller appeared to have a first down, but the officials ruled him short, which set up 4th-and-1, so Houston punted. Early in the third quarter, Brock Osweiler appeared to extend the ball before going out of bounds, but the officials gave him 4th-and-1. The Texans converted on fourth down, but it was still an ugly call. And on back-to-back plays in the fourth quarter, officials called pretty obvious first downs as short, setting up a turnover that led to Oakland’s game-winning touchdown.”

    Perhaps last year’s oddness is related to the Patriots/Raiders line this season.

    • Tom

      You just beat me to it…

      • By, like, a matter of seconds! Obviously I agree with you 🙂

  • Tom

    This article is from last year, shows that perhaps Vegas doesn’t see Mexico City as a “neutral site”

    http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/11/nfl-mexico-city-raiders-texans-photos-black-hole

  • Tom

    Interesting notes about the Chargers…I live in LA, don’t really have a feel for how the Chargers will be received once the season starts (personally, I wish they’d stayed in San Diego, for historical reasons, etc.). Of course, LA loves a winner (to be fair, most cities do), so if the Bolts are in the playoff hunt late in the season (doubtful, yes), they might have a small bump in home field advantage.

    • Richie

      I heard that attendance was bad for the preseason game. I hope that the Chargers fail horrifically in building a fan base here. They never should have left San Diego.

      However, I love the idea of the intimate stadium and could see that becoming a trend, since the NFL is mainly a TV sport anyway.

      • Tom

        Agreed. That team belongs in San Diego…it’s part of the whole vibe down there, not sure how that thing got screwed up. I’m a fan of the history of the league, and for selfish reasons having nothing to do with how profitable teams are, I like the older, more historic teams to stay put.