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Implied SRS NFL Ratings For 2015

In each of the last two years, I’ve derived implied SRS ratings for NFL teams based on the Vegas point spreads (I also do the same for college football teams). Well, in late April, CG Technology released lines for 238 NFL games. Things have changed since late April, of course, but for now, let’s work with that data.

For the third straight year, Seattle, Denver, New England, and Green Bay are ranked among the top five teams in the NFL. And before you ask, yes, we will get to the Tom Brady issue in a few moments. The Seahawks are underdogs in just one game this year, and even in that game, Seattle is a just 1-point underdog in Green Bay. The Packers are underdogs in just one game, too: Green Bay is a 1.5-point underdog during a week 8 trip to Denver. On the other side, the Raiders aren’t favored in a game all year: the closest is a pick’em when the Jets come to Oakland.

As a reminder, we can use the Simple Rating System to take all 238 point spreads and derive ratings. But as a sign of how good Vegas viewed Seattle, consider these four Seahawks road lines:

  • The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points in St. Louis; the Rams are favored in every other home game.
  • The Seahawks are favored by 1.5 points in Dallas. The Cowboys were (this game occurs during Brady’s suspension now) a pick’em when the Patriots visit in week 5, and are 2.5-point favorites in every other home game.
  • The Seahawks are favored by 1.5 points in San Francisco. The 49ers are a pick’em when the Packers come to town, but otherwise, are favored by at least 2 points in every other home game.
  • The Seahawks are favored by 4.5 points when they travel to Minnesota. Other than being 3-point dogs against the Packers, the Vikings are not home underdogs in any other game.

Here’s how to read the table below. According to the Vegas lines from April 25th, Seattle is the best team in the NFL. Vegas provided lines for 15 games, and on average, Seattle is 4.4 points better than its opponent in those games (after awarding 3 points to the home team in each game). On average, Seattle’s opponent is 1.0 point above average, which means Seattle is 5.4 points better than the average team. Seattle’s schedule is the 5th toughest in the NFL.

Tm RkTeamGMOVSOSSRSDivSOS Rk
1Seattle Seahawks154.415.4NFC West5
2Green Bay Packers143.40.84.1NFC North8
3Denver Broncos153.40.23.6AFC West15
4New England Patriots154.2-0.63.6AFC East25
5Indianapolis Colts153.7-1.22.5AFC South29
6Baltimore Ravens151.80.32AFC North14
7Arizona Cardinals150.81.12NFC West3
8Pittsburgh Steelers150.71.31.9AFC North1
9Dallas Cowboys151.70.21.9NFC East16
10San Francisco 49ers150.61.21.9NFC West2
11Philadelphia Eagles151.9-0.41.5NFC East20
12Detroit Lions150.311.3NFC North4
13San Diego Chargers151.1-0.40.8AFC West19
14St. Louis Rams15-0.20.90.7NFC West6
15Cincinnati Bengals1500.70.7AFC North9
16Kansas City Chiefs150.10.60.7AFC West12
17Miami Dolphins151-0.60.4AFC East23
18Buffalo Bills150.3-0.20.1AFC East18
19Carolina Panthers130.8-0.9-0.1NFC South27
20Houston Texans150.7-1.1-0.4AFC South28
21New Orleans Saints140.8-1.2-0.4NFC South30
22New York Giants15-0.1-0.4-0.5NFC East21
23Minnesota Vikings15-20.8-1.2NFC North7
24Chicago Bears15-1.90.6-1.3NFC North10
25Atlanta Falcons15-0.4-1.2-1.6NFC South31
26Cleveland Browns15-30.6-2.4AFC North11
27Washington Redskins15-2.8-0.2-3NFC East17
28New York Jets15-2.6-0.6-3.2AFC East22
29Tampa Bay Buccaneers15-3.9-0.9-4.8NFC South26
30Oakland Raiders15-5.50.4-5.1AFC West13
31Tennessee Titans15-3.5-1.6-5.1AFC South32
32Jacksonville Jaguars15-5.4-0.6-6AFC South24
  • Note that the SOS is based on only the games for which Vegas provided points spreads. That means all week 17 games were excluded, along with (for whatever reason) the Carolina @ New Orleans game in week 3 and the Green Bay @ Carolina game in week 9. If we include those games, what happens?
  • Well, the Cardinals face Seattle in week 17, so their schedule gets more difficult. The Dolphins (Patriots), Titans (Colts), Chargers (Broncos), and Vikings (Packers) also see their schedules get a little harder. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (Raiders), Texans (Jaguars), and Colts see their schedules improve.
  • What if Brady misses 4 games? Well, Bill Barnwell noted that the Patriots/Steelers line moved by 5 points, from New England -6.5 to New England -1.5 with the news that Jimmy Garoppolo would be starting. Let’s re-run the SOS numbers with all 256 games and the Brady adjustments (i.e., the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, and Cowboys now face a team with an SRS rating of -1.4, rather than 3.6). Note that no team’s SRS rating should change as a result of these changes: missing games don’t impact the SRS (that’s why this implied method works for college teams), and the Brady Patriots are a different team than the non-Brady Patriots.

The Cardinals now have the toughest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers — by losing a Brady game and gaining a Browns game — drop from having the toughest to the 8th toughest schedule. NFC West teams have four of the five toughest schedules, while the non-Jaguars AFC South teams have the three easiest ones.

SOS RkTeamSOS
1Arizona Cardinals1.4
2San Francisco 49ers1.2
3Seattle Seahawks1
4Minnesota Vikings1
5St. Louis Rams1
6Detroit Lions0.9
7Cincinnati Bengals0.8
8Pittsburgh Steelers0.7
9Cleveland Browns0.7
10Chicago Bears0.7
11Green Bay Packers0.6
12Oakland Raiders0.4
13Baltimore Ravens0.3
14Denver Broncos0.3
15Kansas City Chiefs0.2
16Washington Redskins-0.1
17San Diego Chargers-0.1
18New York Giants-0.3
19Miami Dolphins-0.3
20Dallas Cowboys-0.3
21Philadelphia Eagles-0.4
22New York Jets-0.5
23New England Patriots-0.5
24Buffalo Bills-0.7
25Carolina Panthers-0.8
26Tampa Bay Buccaneers-0.9
27Jacksonville Jaguars-0.9
28New Orleans Saints-1.2
29Atlanta Falcons-1.2
30Tennessee Titans-1.3
31Houston Texans-1.4
32Indianapolis Colts-1.5

Finally, here are the results for the 238 games that CG Technology released a spread. Here’s how to read it: In week 1, the Seahawks are on the road to play the Rams, and the line is -3.5. That means the Seahawks have a location-adjusted MOV of +6.5, or are 6.5 points better than the Rams. St. Louis has an SOS of +0.7, which means the Seahawks receive a single-game SRS of +7.2 for this game.

WeekTeamH/ROppLineMOVSOSSRS
1SeahawksRoadRams-3.56.50.77.2
1PackersRoadBears-47-1.35.7
1PatriotsHomeSteelers-6.53.51.95.4
1ColtsRoadBills-1.54.50.14.6
1BroncosHomeRavens-4123
1RavensRoadBroncos4-13.62.6
1EaglesRoadFalcons-14-1.62.4
1LionsRoadChargers1.51.50.82.3
1DolphinsRoadRedskins-25-32
1SaintsRoadCardinals3022
1CowboysHomeGiants-5.52.5-0.52
1ChiefsRoadTexans12-0.41.6
1BengalsRoadRaiders-3.56.5-5.11.4
1PanthersRoadJaguars-47-61
1VikingsRoad49ers4.5-1.51.90.4
149ersHomeVikings-4.51.5-1.20.3
1SteelersRoadPatriots6.5-3.53.60.1
1ChargersHomeLions-1.5-1.51.3-0.2
1CardinalsHomeSaints-30-0.4-0.4
1GiantsRoadCowboys5.5-2.51.9-0.6
1RamsHomeSeahawks3.5-6.55.4-1.1
1TexansHomeChiefs-1-20.7-1.3
1BillsHomeColts1.5-4.52.5-2
1BrownsRoadJets21-3.2-2.2
1FalconsHomeEagles1-41.5-2.5
1BearsHomePackers4-74.1-2.9
1JetsHomeBrowns-2-1-2.4-3.4
1RedskinsHomeDolphins2-50.4-4.6
1TitansRoadBuccaneers30-4.8-4.8
1BuccaneersHomeTitans-30-5.1-5.1
1RaidersHomeBengals3.5-6.50.7-5.8
1JaguarsHomePanthers4-7-0.1-7.1
2SeahawksRoadPackers124.16.1
2BroncosRoadChiefs-140.74.7
2PatriotsRoadBills-140.14.1
2PackersHomeSeahawks-1-25.43.4
2RavensRoadRaiders-58-5.12.9
2CardinalsRoadBears-14-1.32.7
2CowboysRoadEagles211.52.5
249ersRoadSteelers2.50.51.92.4
2RamsRoadRedskins-25-32
2LionsRoadVikings03-1.21.8
2SteelersHome49ers-2.5-0.51.91.4
2ColtsHomeJets-7.54.5-3.21.3
2DolphinsRoadJaguars-47-61
2EaglesHomeCowboys-2-11.90.9
2BengalsHomeChargers-300.80.8
2ChargersRoadBengals300.70.7
2TexansRoadPanthers2.50.5-0.10.4
2ChiefsHomeBroncos1-43.6-0.4
2BillsHomePatriots1-43.6-0.4
2PanthersHomeTexans-2.5-0.5-0.4-0.9
2FalconsRoadGiants3.5-0.5-0.5-1
2GiantsHomeFalcons-3.50.5-1.6-1.1
2SaintsHomeBuccaneers-6.53.5-4.8-1.3
2VikingsHomeLions0-31.3-1.7
2JetsRoadColts7.5-4.52.5-2
2BearsHomeCardinals1-42-2
2BrownsHomeTitans-4.51.5-5.1-3.6
2TitansRoadBrowns4.5-1.5-2.4-3.9
2BuccaneersRoadSaints6.5-3.5-0.4-3.9
2RedskinsHomeRams2-50.7-4.3
2RaidersHomeRavens5-82-6
2JaguarsHomeDolphins4-70.4-6.6
3SeahawksHomeBears-96-1.34.7
3BroncosRoadLions031.34.3
3PackersHomeChiefs-5.52.50.73.2
3ColtsRoadTitans-58-5.12.9
3SteelersRoadRams120.72.7
3PatriotsHomeJaguars-11.58.5-62.5
349ersRoadCardinals2.50.522.5
3EaglesRoadJets-2.55.5-3.22.3
3BengalsRoadRavens3022
3ChargersRoadVikings03-1.21.8
3ChiefsRoadPackers5.5-2.54.11.6
3BillsRoadDolphins210.41.4
3CardinalsHome49ers-2.5-0.51.91.4
3CowboysHomeFalcons-5.52.5-1.60.9
3RavensHomeBengals-300.70.7
3LionsHomeBroncos0-33.60.6
3RedskinsRoadGiants21-0.50.5
3RamsHomeSteelers-1-21.9-0.1
3FalconsRoadCowboys5.5-2.51.9-0.6
3BearsRoadSeahawks9-65.4-0.6
3DolphinsHomeBills-2-10.1-0.9
3TexansHomeBuccaneers-6.53.5-4.8-1.3
3VikingsHomeChargers0-30.8-2.2
3BrownsHomeRaiders-4.51.5-5.1-3.6
3BuccaneersRoadTexans6.5-3.5-0.4-3.9
3RaidersRoadBrowns4.5-1.5-2.4-3.9
3JetsHomeEagles2.5-5.51.5-4
3GiantsHomeRedskins-2-1-3-4
3JaguarsRoadPatriots11.5-8.53.6-4.9
3TitansHomeColts5-82.5-5.5
4PackersRoad49ers031.94.9
4SeahawksHomeLions-631.34.3
4BroncosHomeVikings-74-1.22.8
4CowboysRoadSaints03-0.42.6
4EaglesRoadRedskins-2.55.5-32.5
4RavensRoadSteelers2.50.51.92.4
4LionsRoadSeahawks6-35.42.4
4SteelersHomeRavens-2.5-0.521.5
4ColtsHomeJaguars-10.57.5-61.5
4RamsRoadCardinals3.5-0.521.5
4CardinalsHomeRams-3.50.50.71.2
449ersHomePackers0-34.11.1
4ChiefsRoadBengals300.70.7
4BengalsHomeChiefs-300.70.7
4PanthersRoadBuccaneers-2.55.5-4.80.7
4ChargersHomeBrowns-63-2.40.6
4TexansRoadFalcons12-1.60.4
4DolphinsNeutJets-3.53.5-3.20.3
4GiantsRoadBills300.10.1
4VikingsRoadBroncos7-43.6-0.4
4BillsHomeGiants-30-0.5-0.5
4SaintsHomeCowboys0-31.9-1.1
4BearsHomeRaiders-63-5.1-2.1
4BrownsRoadChargers6-30.8-2.2
4FalconsHomeTexans-1-2-0.4-2.4
4JetsNeutDolphins3.5-3.50.4-3.1
4RedskinsHomeEagles2.5-5.51.5-4
4RaidersRoadBears6-3-1.3-4.3
4JaguarsRoadColts10.5-7.52.5-5
4BuccaneersHomePanthers2.5-5.5-0.1-5.6
5SeahawksRoadBengals-250.75.7
5PatriotsRoadCowboys031.94.9
5BroncosRoadRaiders-6.59.5-5.14.4
5PackersHomeRams-5.52.50.73.2
5CardinalsRoadLions1.51.51.32.8
5SteelersRoadChargers120.82.8
5ColtsRoadTexans03-0.42.6
549ersRoadGiants03-0.52.5
5RamsRoadPackers5.5-2.54.11.6
5RavensHomeBrowns-74-2.41.6
5BillsRoadTitans-36-5.10.9
5EaglesHomeSaints-41-0.40.6
5CowboysHomePatriots0-33.60.6
5SaintsRoadEagles4-11.50.5
5LionsHomeCardinals-1.5-1.520.5
5BengalsHomeSeahawks2-55.40.4
5ChargersHomeSteelers-1-21.9-0.1
5ChiefsHomeBears-41-1.3-0.3
5BearsRoadChiefs4-10.7-0.3
5TexansHomeColts0-32.5-0.5
5GiantsHome49ers0-31.9-1.1
5BrownsRoadRavens7-42-2
5RedskinsRoadFalcons3.5-0.5-1.6-2.1
5FalconsHomeRedskins-3.50.5-3-2.5
5JaguarsRoadBuccaneers3.5-0.5-4.8-5.3
5BuccaneersHomeJaguars-3.50.5-6-5.5
5TitansHomeBills3-60.1-5.9
5RaidersHomeBroncos6.5-9.53.6-5.9
6BroncosRoadBrowns-4.57.5-2.45.1
6SeahawksHomePanthers-85-0.14.9
6PatriotsRoadColts122.54.5
6PackersHomeChargers-5.52.50.83.3
6RavensRoad49ers211.92.9
6CardinalsRoadSteelers2.50.51.92.4
6BengalsRoadBills120.12.1
6ChargersRoadPackers5.5-2.54.11.6
6ColtsHomePatriots-1-23.61.6
6SteelersHomeCardinals-2.5-0.521.5
649ersHomeRavens-2-121
6DolphinsRoadTitans-36-5.10.9
6ChiefsRoadVikings12-1.20.8
6LionsHomeBears-52-1.30.7
6TexansRoadJaguars-3.56.5-60.5
6GiantsRoadEagles4-11.50.5
6EaglesHomeGiants-41-0.50.5
6PanthersRoadSeahawks8-55.40.4
6BearsRoadLions5-21.3-0.7
6FalconsRoadSaints3.5-0.5-0.4-0.9
6SaintsHomeFalcons-3.50.5-1.6-1.1
6BillsHomeBengals-1-20.7-1.3
6VikingsHomeChiefs-1-20.7-1.3
6RedskinsRoadJets21-3.2-2.2
6BrownsHomeBroncos4.5-7.53.6-3.9
6JetsHomeRedskins-2-1-3-4
6TitansHomeDolphins3-60.4-5.6
6JaguarsHomeTexans3.5-6.5-0.4-6.9
7SeahawksRoad49ers-1.54.51.96.4
7RavensRoadCardinals2123
7EaglesRoadPanthers03-0.12.9
7SteelersRoadChiefs120.72.7
7CowboysRoadGiants03-0.52.5
7PatriotsHomeJets-8.55.5-3.22.3
7ColtsHomeSaints-52-0.41.6
7CardinalsHomeRavens-2-121
749ersHomeSeahawks1.5-4.55.40.9
7LionsHomeVikings-52-1.20.8
7RamsHomeBrowns-63-2.40.6
7SaintsRoadColts5-22.50.5
7TexansRoadDolphins300.40.4
7BillsNeutJaguars-66-60
7ChiefsHomeSteelers-1-21.9-0.1
7ChargersHomeRaiders-85-5.1-0.1
7DolphinsHomeTexans-30-0.4-0.4
7VikingsRoadLions5-21.3-0.7
7FalconsRoadTitans-14-5.1-1.1
7GiantsHomeCowboys0-31.9-1.1
7PanthersHomeEagles0-31.5-1.5
7JetsRoadPatriots8.5-5.53.6-1.9
7BrownsRoadRams6-30.7-2.3
7RedskinsHomeBuccaneers-41-4.8-3.8
7BuccaneersRoadRedskins4-1-3-4
7RaidersRoadChargers8-50.8-4.2
7TitansHomeFalcons1-4-1.6-5.6
7JaguarsNeutBills6-60.1-5.9
8SeahawksRoadCowboys-1.54.51.96.4
8PackersRoadBroncos1.51.53.65.1
8ColtsRoadPanthers-14-0.13.9
8CardinalsRoadBrowns-36-2.43.6
8PatriotsHomeDolphins-5.52.50.42.9
849ersRoadRams120.72.7
8BroncosHomePackers-1.5-1.54.12.6
8BengalsRoadSteelers301.91.9
8LionsNeutChiefs-110.71.7
8ChargersRoadRavens3.5-0.521.5
8RavensHomeChargers-3.50.50.81.3
8DolphinsRoadPatriots5.5-2.53.61.1
8CowboysHomeSeahawks1.5-4.55.40.9
8SteelersHomeBengals-300.70.7
8GiantsRoadSaints21-0.40.6
8ChiefsNeutLions1-11.30.3
8RamsHome49ers-1-21.9-0.1
8VikingsRoadBears21-1.3-0.3
8TexansHomeTitans-74-5.1-1.1
8PanthersHomeColts1-42.5-1.5
8SaintsHomeGiants-2-1-0.5-1.5
8JetsRoadRaiders03-5.1-2.1
8BearsHomeVikings-2-1-1.2-2.2
8FalconsHomeBuccaneers-5.52.5-4.8-2.3
8BrownsHomeCardinals3-62-4
8BuccaneersRoadFalcons5.5-2.5-1.6-4.1
8TitansRoadTexans7-4-0.4-4.4
8RaidersHomeJets0-3-3.2-6.2
9BrownsRoadBengals-2.55.50.76.2
9BroncosRoadColts122.54.5
9PatriotsHomeRedskins-8.55.5-32.5
9EaglesRoadCowboys2.50.51.92.4
9RamsRoadVikings03-1.21.8
9ColtsHomeBroncos-1-23.61.6
9SteelersHomeRaiders-9.56.5-5.11.4
949ersHomeFalcons-63-1.61.4
9DolphinsRoadBills210.11.1
9CowboysHomeEagles-2.5-0.51.51
9GiantsRoadBuccaneers-25-4.80.2
9BearsRoadChargers4-10.8-0.2
9ChargersHomeBears-41-1.3-0.3
9BillsHomeDolphins-2-10.4-0.6
9SaintsHomeTitans-74-5.1-1.1
9FalconsRoad49ers6-31.9-1.1
9RedskinsRoadPatriots8.5-5.53.6-1.9
9VikingsHomeRams0-30.7-2.3
9JetsHomeJaguars-52-6-4
9TitansRoadSaints7-4-0.4-4.4
9RaidersRoadSteelers9.5-6.51.9-4.6
9JaguarsRoadJets5-2-3.2-5.2
9BuccaneersHomeGiants2-5-0.5-5.5
9BengalsHomeBrowns2.5-5.5-2.4-7.9
10SeahawksHomeCardinals-5.52.524.5
10PatriotsRoadGiants-1.54.5-0.54
10PackersHomeLions-521.33.3
10CardinalsRoadSeahawks5.5-2.55.42.9
10BroncosHomeChiefs-520.72.7
10CowboysRoadBuccaneers-4.57.5-4.82.7
10LionsRoadPackers5-24.12.1
10SteelersHomeBrowns-7.54.5-2.42.1
10ChiefsRoadBroncos5-23.61.6
10RavensHomeJaguars-10.57.5-61.5
10DolphinsRoadEagles3.5-0.51.51
10EaglesHomeDolphins-3.50.50.40.9
10BillsRoadJets-14-3.20.8
10BengalsHomeTexans-41-0.40.6
10PanthersRoadTitans-2.55.5-5.10.4
10RamsHomeBears-4.51.5-1.30.2
10SaintsRoadRedskins03-30
10TexansRoadBengals4-10.7-0.3
10VikingsRoadRaiders-1.54.5-5.1-0.6
10BearsRoadRams4.5-1.50.7-0.8
10GiantsHomePatriots1.5-4.53.6-0.9
10BrownsRoadSteelers7.5-4.51.9-2.6
10RedskinsHomeSaints0-3-0.4-3.4
10JetsHomeBills1-40.1-3.9
10JaguarsRoadRavens10.5-7.52-5.5
10BuccaneersHomeCowboys4.5-7.51.9-5.6
10TitansHomePanthers2.5-5.5-0.1-5.6
10RaidersHomeVikings1.5-4.5-1.2-5.7
11PackersRoadVikings-36-1.24.8
11SeahawksHome49ers-5.52.51.94.4
11BroncosRoadBears-2.55.5-1.34.2
11ColtsRoadFalcons-25-1.63.4
1149ersRoadSeahawks5.5-2.55.42.9
11PatriotsHomeBills-5.52.50.12.6
11CowboysRoadDolphins120.42.4
11BengalsRoadCardinals3022
11RamsRoadRavens3.5-0.521.5
11ChiefsRoadChargers2.50.50.81.3
11RavensHomeRams-3.50.50.71.2
11BillsRoadPatriots5.5-2.53.61.1
11CardinalsHomeBengals-300.70.7
11EaglesHomeBuccaneers-8.55.5-4.80.7
11LionsHomeRaiders-8.55.5-5.10.4
11ChargersHomeChiefs-2.5-0.50.70.2
11DolphinsHomeCowboys-1-21.9-0.1
11PanthersHomeRedskins-52-3-1
11TexansHomeJets-52-3.2-1.2
11VikingsHomePackers3-64.1-1.9
11BearsHomeBroncos2.5-5.53.6-1.9
11RedskinsRoadPanthers5-2-0.1-2.1
11JetsRoadTexans5-2-0.4-2.4
11FalconsHomeColts2-52.5-2.5
11BuccaneersRoadEagles8.5-5.51.5-4
11RaidersRoadLions8.5-5.51.3-4.2
11TitansRoadJaguars1.51.5-6-4.5
11JaguarsHomeTitans-1.5-1.5-5.1-6.6
12SeahawksHomeSteelers-5.52.51.94.4
12PatriotsRoadBroncos2.50.53.64.1
12RavensRoadBrowns-36-2.43.6
12PackersHomeBears-7.54.5-1.33.2
12BroncosHomePatriots-2.5-0.53.63.1
12SteelersRoadSeahawks5.5-2.55.42.9
12CardinalsRoad49ers211.92.9
12EaglesRoadLions211.32.3
12ColtsHomeBuccaneers-9.56.5-4.81.7
12ChargersRoadJaguars-4.57.5-61.5
12CowboysHomePanthers-4.51.5-0.11.4
12DolphinsRoadJets-1.54.5-3.21.3
12RamsRoadBengals2.50.50.71.2
12BillsRoadChiefs2.50.50.71.2
12GiantsRoadRedskins-14-31
1249ersHomeCardinals-2-121
12SaintsRoadTexans21-0.40.6
12LionsHomeEagles-2-11.50.5
12PanthersRoadCowboys4.5-1.51.90.4
12BengalsHomeRams-2.5-0.50.70.2
12VikingsRoadFalcons1.51.5-1.6-0.1
12ChiefsHomeBills-2.5-0.50.1-0.4
12BearsRoadPackers7.5-4.54.1-0.4
12TexansHomeSaints-2-1-0.4-1.4
12FalconsHomeVikings-1.5-1.5-1.2-2.7
12BrownsHomeRavens3-62-4
12BuccaneersRoadColts9.5-6.52.5-4
12RaidersRoadTitans21-5.1-4.1
12JetsHomeDolphins1.5-4.50.4-4.1
12RedskinsHomeGiants1-4-0.5-4.5
12TitansHomeRaiders-2-1-5.1-6.1
12JaguarsHomeChargers4.5-7.50.8-6.7
13SeahawksRoadVikings-4.57.5-1.26.3
13PackersRoadLions031.34.3
13BroncosRoadChargers030.83.8
13RavensRoadDolphins030.43.4
13CowboysRoadRedskins-36-33
13CardinalsRoadRams120.72.7
1349ersRoadBears-14-1.32.7
13BengalsRoadBrowns-25-2.42.6
13EaglesRoadPatriots4-13.62.6
13PatriotsHomeEagles-411.52.5
13ColtsRoadSteelers2.50.51.92.4
13SteelersHomeColts-2.5-0.52.52
13ChiefsRoadRaiders-3.56.5-5.11.4
13LionsHomePackers0-34.11.1
13PanthersRoadSaints21-0.40.6
13ChargersHomeBroncos0-33.60.6
13TexansRoadBills300.10.1
13RamsHomeCardinals-1-220
13BillsHomeTexans-30-0.4-0.4
13FalconsRoadBuccaneers-14-4.8-0.8
13DolphinsHomeRavens0-32-1
13SaintsHomePanthers-2-1-0.1-1.1
13GiantsHomeJets-52-3.2-1.2
13VikingsHomeSeahawks4.5-7.55.4-2.1
13BearsHome49ers1-41.9-2.1
13JetsRoadGiants5-2-0.5-2.5
13RedskinsHomeCowboys3-61.9-4.1
13BrownsHomeBengals2-50.7-4.3
13JaguarsRoadTitans30-5.1-5.1
13BuccaneersHomeFalcons1-4-1.6-5.6
13RaidersHomeChiefs3.5-6.50.7-5.8
13TitansHomeJaguars-30-6-6
14SeahawksRoadRavens-1426
14PatriotsRoadTexans-1.54.5-0.44.1
14PackersHomeCowboys-4.51.51.93.4
1449ersRoadBrowns-2.55.5-2.43.1
14ColtsRoadJaguars-69-63
14SteelersRoadBengals120.72.7
14CowboysRoadPackers4.5-1.54.12.6
14BroncosHomeRaiders-10.57.5-5.12.4
14LionsRoadRams1.51.50.72.2
14ChargersRoadChiefs210.71.7
14RavensHomeSeahawks1-45.41.4
14CardinalsHomeVikings-5.52.5-1.21.3
14BillsRoadEagles3.5-0.51.51
14SaintsRoadBuccaneers-2.55.5-4.80.7
14EaglesHomeBills-3.50.50.10.6
14GiantsRoadDolphins300.40.4
14BengalsHomeSteelers-1-21.9-0.1
14RamsHomeLions-1.5-1.51.3-0.2
14ChiefsHomeChargers-2-10.8-0.2
14VikingsRoadCardinals5.5-2.52-0.5
14DolphinsHomeGiants-30-0.5-0.5
14FalconsRoadPanthers3.5-0.5-0.1-0.6
14TexansHomePatriots1.5-4.53.6-0.9
14PanthersHomeFalcons-3.50.5-1.6-1.1
14BearsHomeRedskins-41-3-2
14RedskinsRoadBears4-1-1.3-2.3
14BrownsHome49ers2.5-5.51.9-3.6
14RaidersRoadBroncos10.5-7.53.6-3.9
14JetsHomeTitans-41-5.1-4.1
14TitansRoadJets4-1-3.2-4.2
14BuccaneersHomeSaints2.5-5.5-0.4-5.9
14JaguarsHomeColts6-92.5-6.5
15SeahawksHomeBrowns-10.57.5-2.45.1
15PackersRoadRaiders-710-5.14.9
15BroncosRoadSteelers121.93.9
15CardinalsRoadEagles1.51.51.53
15LionsRoadSaints03-0.42.6
15PatriotsHomeTitans-10.57.5-5.12.4
15BengalsRoad49ers301.91.9
15ColtsHomeTexans-52-0.41.6
15SteelersHomeBroncos-1-23.61.6
15ChiefsRoadRavens3.5-0.521.5
15CowboysHomeJets-7.54.5-3.21.3
15RavensHomeChiefs-3.50.50.71.2
15BillsRoadRedskins-14-31
15DolphinsRoadChargers300.80.8
1549ersHomeBengals-300.70.7
15TexansRoadColts5-22.50.5
15EaglesHomeCardinals-1.5-1.520.5
15PanthersRoadGiants21-0.50.5
15ChargersHomeDolphins-300.40.4
15RamsHomeBuccaneers-85-4.80.2
15BearsRoadVikings2.50.5-1.2-0.7
15FalconsRoadJaguars-25-6-1
15GiantsHomePanthers-2-1-0.1-1.1
15SaintsHomeLions0-31.3-1.7
15VikingsHomeBears-2.5-0.5-1.3-1.8
15BrownsRoadSeahawks10.5-7.55.4-2.1
15JetsRoadCowboys7.5-4.51.9-2.6
15RedskinsHomeBills1-40.1-3.9
15TitansRoadPatriots10.5-7.53.6-3.9
15BuccaneersRoadRams8-50.7-4.3
15RaidersHomePackers7-104.1-5.9
15JaguarsHomeFalcons2-5-1.6-6.6
16PackersRoadCardinals0325
16PatriotsRoadJets-4.57.5-3.24.3
16SeahawksHomeRams-6.53.50.74.2
16ColtsRoadDolphins030.43.4
16SteelersRoadRavens2123
1649ersRoadLions1.51.51.32.8
16BroncosHomeBengals-4.51.50.72.2
16CowboysRoadBills120.12.1
16BengalsRoadBroncos4.5-1.53.62.1
16RamsRoadSeahawks6.5-3.55.41.9
16ChargersRoadRaiders-3.56.5-5.11.4
16CardinalsHomePackers0-34.11.1
16EaglesHomeRedskins-74-31
16RavensHomeSteelers-2-11.90.9
16TexansRoadTitans-2.55.5-5.10.4
16PanthersRoadFalcons12-1.60.4
16LionsHome49ers-1.5-1.51.90.4
16GiantsRoadVikings1.51.5-1.20.3
16ChiefsHomeBrowns-5.52.5-2.40.1
16BillsHomeCowboys-1-21.9-0.1
16BearsRoadBuccaneers-1.54.5-4.8-0.3
16DolphinsHomeColts0-32.5-0.5
16SaintsHomeJaguars-85-6-1
16BrownsRoadChiefs5.5-2.50.7-1.8
16VikingsHomeGiants-1.5-1.5-0.5-2
16FalconsHomePanthers-1-2-0.1-2.1
16RedskinsRoadEagles7-41.5-2.5
16JetsHomePatriots4.5-7.53.6-3.9
16JaguarsRoadSaints8-5-0.4-5.4
16RaidersHomeChargers3.5-6.50.8-5.7
16BuccaneersHomeBears1.5-4.5-1.3-5.8
16TitansHomeTexans2.5-5.5-0.4-5.9
  • James

    I realize this is off topic, but I was interested by the additional data on the value of a starting QB. Barnwell says the line of the Pats games without Brady moved from +6.5 to +1.5, which cost the Pats’ expected winning percentage 16.4 percentage points. Multiply that by 16 and the difference between Brady and a generic/unknown backup is 2.5 wins per season. Which matches up with a lot of other estimates!

    Chase, you looked at it a few years ago with AV and said 2012 Brady was worth about 1.3 wins, which is on the low side of most estimates I’ve seen, which we discussed in the comments: http://www.footballperspective.com/how-to-determine-the-appropriate-salary-cap-values-for-veterans-part-ii/

    Way back in 2008 Doug said adding 1 point per game in SRS is equal to adding 0.45 wins, so 5 points without Brady * .45 wins/marginal point = 2.25 wins. Doug also concluded a typical starting QB was worth 1 win per season, and 2007 MVP Brady was worth 3, guessing before the season started the 2008 Pats would win 10 or 11 games if Brady didn’t play. Then Brady was injured in the first game and Doug was proven correct!: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=579

    When Peyton’s status was unknown after the neck surgery, Jason Lisk looked only at teams that lost HOF QBs, and showed losing the HOF QB cost their teams 2.6 wins per season: http://thebiglead.com/2011/09/06/how-many-wins-is-peyton-manning-worth/

    Brian Burke’s WPA says Brady has been worth 4 wins a season over the past few years, which is on the high end, but that’s giving the QB 100% of the credit for every play he’s involved in. Once you give some share of the credit to the blockers and receivers, that value falls in line with the others: http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/offensive-player-page/index.php?playerid=12-T.Brady&pos=QB&season=all

    I think it’s very telling that Vegas, SRS, and actual results so closely agree that a HOF QB is worth 2.5 wins per season over a typical backup, with AV and WPA within the same ballpark.

    • Good recap, James. That sounds about right to me.

    • Quick question: What’s the baseline for this? When you say a QB is worth x wins, it’s x wins more than what? Replacement? Average? Other?

      • James

        X wins over a typical backup QB, which is probably not much higher than replacement level.

    • Perfundle

      2.5 wins seems extremely low. I’ll note that the 2008 and 2011 analyses came before Indianapolis collapsed without Manning and Green Bay collapsed without Rodgers. As for the correct prediction of 10-11 wins for the 2008 Patriots, that doesn’t take into account their much easier schedule in 2008, going from a 0.4 SOS to a -2.4 SOS. Given how the game has shifted more and more towards the passing game, I think a more current analysis would push that number higher.

  • Adam

    I find it interesting that Denver ranks 3rd in implied SRS, given that most of the “experts” have already written them off. I wonder if the optics of last year’s playoff loss have made people forget how much talent the Broncos still have. I see them as roughly equal to the 2014 squad, and apparently Vegas agrees.

    • Richie

      I think it partly shows the difference between saying “this team is not going to be as good” and actually looking game-by-game to predict the results.

  • Richie

    Here is the 2014 predicted SRS compared to the actual year-end SRS, sorted by teams that most under-performed their SRS.

    http://i.imgur.com/pdAlbbs.png

  • Colin Sowards

    Meanwhile, the Colts get yet another pillow soft schedule. Wouldn’t surprise me if they win 13 or 14 games and get bounced in the first round. Biggest paper tigers in the NFL.

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  • Anonymous

    What are the odds for each team to go undefeated?

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