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Vegas Has The Seahawks As the Best Team in 2014

Last year, I derived implied SRS Ratings for each NFL team based on the initial Vegas point spreads. Well, lines have been set for the first 240 games of the year — i.e., every week but week 17 — which means we can re-run the exercise for 2014.

So how do we use point spread data to derive SRS ratings? The point spread in each game provides an implied strength margin (“ISM”) between the two teams: When the Raiders are 10-point home underdogs to Denver, that implies that Denver is 13 points better than Oakland. If we treat each ISM like we would margin of victory, then we can use the SRS to come up with team ratings. For those who need a primer on what the SRS is, you can read about it here; the rest of you can skip to the ratings:

Rk
Team
MOV
SOS
SRS
1Seattle Seahawks5.10.926.02
2Denver Broncos5.530.155.68
3San Francisco 49ers4.30.815.11
4Green Bay Packers3.50.33.8
5New England Patriots3.6-0.393.21
6New Orleans Saints2.070.782.85
7Carolina Panthers1.330.822.15
8Chicago Bears0.570.781.35
9Philadelphia Eagles1.20.071.27
10Cincinnati Bengals1.3-0.171.13
11Indianapolis Colts1.97-0.891.08
12Detroit Lions0.93-0.030.9
13Kansas City Chiefs0.730.120.85
14Atlanta Falcons0.30.390.69
15Pittsburgh Steelers1.47-0.850.61
16Dallas Cowboys0.370.140.5
17Baltimore Ravens0.93-0.580.36
18Arizona Cardinals-1.271-0.27
19New York Giants-0.23-0.11-0.35
20San Diego Chargers-0.3-0.13-0.43
21Houston Texans0.4-1.46-1.06
22Miami Dolphins-1.1-0.44-1.54
23Washington Redskins-1.27-0.34-1.6
24Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2.370.48-1.88
25St. Louis Rams-2.70.72-1.98
26New York Jets-2.6-0.03-2.63
27Cleveland Browns-1.87-0.82-2.69
28Buffalo Bills-2.6-0.37-2.97
29Minnesota Vikings-3.60.47-3.13
30Tennessee Titans-1.97-1.31-3.27
31Oakland Raiders-6.270.52-5.75
32Jacksonville Jaguars-7.47-0.55-8.01

This time last year, the top five teams were…. well, the exact same five teams, albeit in a slightly different order. And the bottom three teams were… Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tennessee, in that exact order. The Broncos have the largest average margin of victory1, but because the Seahawks face a tougher schedule, the Seahawks are implied by Vegas to be the strongest team in the NFL at six points better than average.

One interesting way to use the SRS is to see which teams have the hardest schedules. Pre-season strength of schedule is essentially meaningless when based on last year’s record, but the SOS ratings here are based on the implied strengths of each team. In my opinion, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better set of strength of schedule ratings in May than what we see here (other than the fact that they exclude week 17).

The toughest schedule this year belongs to Arizona: add in the oldest roster in the league in 2013, and it’s easy to see why Vegas is so bearish on the Cardinals in 2014. The Seahawks (+0.92) and 49ers (+0.81) have two of the next three toughest schedules (with the Panthers sandwiched between them). The Rams are a few spots down, but remember: this is only the strength of schedule for the first sixteen weeks of the season. St. Louis travels to Seattle in week 17, so the Rams schedule would be just as brutal if we included that game. The Bears having one of the five hardest schedules is a surprise after having such an easy slate in 2013.  It’s true that this analysis ignores that Chicago gets to play Minnesota in week 17, which would ease their schedule strength, but the Bears face the 49ers, Patriots, Saints, and Panthers this year, along with two games against Green Bay. That’s six games against top-7 teams.

Three AFC South teams have the easiest schedules; the Jaguars would probably join the rest of the division if they had two games against Jacksonville. The Texans are set up nicely for a rebound season under Jadeveon Clowney, Bill O’Brien, and, uh, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Case Keenum/Tom Savage. What’s really incredible about Houston’s schedule: not only do the Texans have the easiest schedule through 16 weeks, the Texans host the Jaguars in week 17! Including that game would bring Houston’s schedule down to 1.9 points easier than average.

If you include that game, 8 of the Texans’ 16 games are against teams that are 1.5 points weaker than average. Playing six games against the AFC South, the NFC East and the AFC North, and the Bills and Raiders makes for about as easy a schedule as one could create. Assuming the Texans would be favored in week 17, that means Houston — which went 2-14 last year — is favored in 8 of 16 games and a pick’em in three others (Philadelphia and Cincinnati at home, Tennessee on the road). That’s pretty incredible, and explains why Vegas was so bullish on Houston.

The table below shows each game in the first sixteen weeks of the 2014 season.  Here’s how to read the Seahawks/Raiders line: In week 9, Seattle hosts Oakland. The line is -14.5, which means the Seahawks are 14.5-point favorites. Seattle’s SRS is 6.0 while Oakland has an SRS of -5.8. Therefore, the line predicted by the SRS would be Seattle -14.8 (since the Raiders are 11.8 points worse than the Seahawks and on the road). The difference between the actual line and the SRS line is -0.3 points. By definition, the sum of all the differences between the actual lines and SRS lines must be 0, since the SRS lines were generated from the actual lines. The table below contains 480 rows, showing each game from the perspective of both teams (although the only searchable column is the first team column):

Wk
Team 1
Team 2
H/R
Line
Tm SRS
Opp SRS
Proj SRS Line
Diff
9Seattle SeahawksOakland RaidersHome-14.56-5.8-14.8-0.3
3New England PatriotsOakland RaidersHome-133.2-5.8-121
12Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsHome-121.1-8-12.1-0.1
14Denver BroncosBuffalo BillsHome-11.55.7-3-11.7-0.2
1Philadelphia EaglesJacksonville JaguarsHome-111.3-8-12.3-1.3
9Cincinnati BengalsJacksonville JaguarsHome-111.1-8-12.1-1.1
9San Francisco 49ersSt. Louis RamsHome-115.1-2-10.10.9
15Baltimore RavensJacksonville JaguarsHome-10.50.4-8-11.4-0.9
12Seattle SeahawksArizona CardinalsHome-10.56-0.3-9.31.2
4San Diego ChargersJacksonville JaguarsHome-10-0.4-8-10.6-0.6
12Denver BroncosMiami DolphinsHome-105.7-1.5-10.2-0.2
5Green Bay PackersMinnesota VikingsHome-103.8-3.1-9.90.1
10Seattle SeahawksNew York GiantsHome-106-0.3-9.30.7
3New Orleans SaintsMinnesota VikingsHome-102.8-3.1-8.91.1
10Dallas CowboysJacksonville JaguarsLond-100.5-8-8.51.5
10Denver BroncosOakland RaidersRoad-105.7-5.8-8.51.5
2Washington RedskinsJacksonville JaguarsHome-9-1.6-8-9.4-0.4
5Denver BroncosArizona CardinalsHome-95.7-0.3-90
12San Francisco 49ersWashington RedskinsHome-8.55.1-1.6-9.7-1.2
15Kansas City ChiefsOakland RaidersHome-8.50.8-5.8-9.6-1.1
2Green Bay PackersNew York JetsHome-8.53.8-2.6-9.4-0.9
8Denver BroncosSan Diego ChargersHome-8.55.7-0.4-9.1-0.6
11San Diego ChargersOakland RaidersHome-8-0.4-5.8-8.4-0.4
7New England PatriotsNew York JetsHome-7.53.2-2.6-8.8-1.3
6Seattle SeahawksDallas CowboysHome-7.560.5-8.5-1
16Carolina PanthersCleveland BrownsHome-7.52.1-2.7-7.8-0.3
5New Orleans SaintsTampa Bay BuccaneersHome-7.52.8-1.9-7.7-0.2
4Indianapolis ColtsTennessee TitansHome-7.51.1-3.3-7.40.1
5Detroit LionsBuffalo BillsHome-7.50.9-3-6.90.6
16San Francisco 49ersSan Diego ChargersHome-75.1-0.4-8.5-1.5
14San Francisco 49ersOakland RaidersRoad-75.1-5.8-7.9-0.9
2Denver BroncosKansas City ChiefsHome-75.70.8-7.9-0.9
6Tennessee TitansJacksonville JaguarsHome-7-3.3-8-7.7-0.7
1Denver BroncosIndianapolis ColtsHome-75.71.1-7.6-0.6
12Philadelphia EaglesTennessee TitansHome-71.3-3.3-7.6-0.6
11Chicago BearsMinnesota VikingsHome-71.4-3.1-7.5-0.5
3Cincinnati BengalsTennessee TitansHome-71.1-3.3-7.4-0.4
5San Francisco 49ersKansas City ChiefsHome-75.10.8-7.3-0.3
15Detroit LionsMinnesota VikingsHome-70.9-3.1-70
2San Francisco 49ersChicago BearsHome-75.11.4-6.70.3
12Atlanta FalconsCleveland BrownsHome-70.7-2.7-6.40.6
15New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsHome-6.53.2-1.5-7.7-1.2
1Chicago BearsBuffalo BillsHome-6.51.4-3-7.4-0.9
15Carolina PanthersTampa Bay BuccaneersHome-6.52.1-1.9-7-0.5
10Cincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsHome-6.51.1-2.7-6.8-0.3
14Green Bay PackersAtlanta FalconsHome-6.53.80.7-6.10.4
8Kansas City ChiefsSt. Louis RamsHome-6.50.8-2-5.80.7
5Pittsburgh SteelersJacksonville JaguarsRoad-6.50.6-8-5.60.9
12New Orleans SaintsBaltimore RavensHome-6.52.80.4-5.41.1
16New Orleans SaintsAtlanta FalconsHome-6.52.80.7-5.11.4
4San Francisco 49ersPhiladelphia EaglesHome-65.11.3-6.8-0.8
10Baltimore RavensTennessee TitansHome-60.4-3.3-6.7-0.7
9Kansas City ChiefsNew York JetsHome-60.8-2.6-6.4-0.4
12Chicago BearsTampa Bay BuccaneersHome-61.4-1.9-6.3-0.3
5Philadelphia EaglesSt. Louis RamsHome-61.3-2-6.3-0.3
3Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsRoad-61.1-8-6.1-0.1
7Chicago BearsMiami DolphinsHome-61.4-1.5-5.90.1
14Detroit LionsTampa Bay BuccaneersHome-60.9-1.9-5.80.2
13Indianapolis ColtsWashington RedskinsHome-61.1-1.6-5.70.3
10Green Bay PackersChicago BearsHome-63.81.4-5.40.6
6Denver BroncosNew York JetsRoad-65.7-2.6-5.30.7
12New England PatriotsDetroit LionsHome-63.20.9-5.30.7
7Seattle SeahawksSt. Louis RamsRoad-66-2-51
13St. Louis RamsOakland RaidersHome-5.5-2-5.8-6.8-1.3
3Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay BuccaneersHome-5.50.7-1.9-5.6-0.1
13New York GiantsJacksonville JaguarsRoad-5.5-0.3-8-4.70.8
1Kansas City ChiefsTennessee TitansHome-50.8-3.3-7.1-2.1
1Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland BrownsHome-50.6-2.7-6.3-1.3
10Detroit LionsMiami DolphinsHome-50.9-1.5-5.4-0.4
1Seattle SeahawksGreen Bay PackersHome-563.8-5.2-0.2
13Houston TexansTennessee TitansHome-5-1.1-3.3-5.2-0.2
4Houston TexansBuffalo BillsHome-5-1.1-3-4.90.1
4Miami DolphinsOakland RaidersLond-5-1.5-5.8-4.30.7
1New York JetsOakland RaidersHome-4.5-2.6-5.8-6.2-1.7
8Cleveland BrownsOakland RaidersHome-4.5-2.7-5.8-6.1-1.6
3Philadelphia EaglesWashington RedskinsHome-4.51.3-1.6-5.9-1.4
11Green Bay PackersPhiladelphia EaglesHome-4.53.81.3-5.5-1
15Indianapolis ColtsHouston TexansHome-4.51.1-1.1-5.2-0.7
8Dallas CowboysWashington RedskinsHome-4.50.5-1.6-5.1-0.6
8New England PatriotsChicago BearsHome-4.53.21.4-4.8-0.3
11Denver BroncosSt. Louis RamsRoad-4.55.7-2-4.7-0.2
6Philadelphia EaglesNew York GiantsHome-4.51.3-0.3-4.6-0.1
5Seattle SeahawksWashington RedskinsRoad-4.56-1.6-4.6-0.1
5Dallas CowboysHouston TexansHome-4.50.5-1.1-4.6-0.1
1St. Louis RamsMinnesota VikingsHome-4.5-2-3.1-4.10.4
6San Francisco 49ersSt. Louis RamsRoad-4.55.1-2-4.10.4
12Green Bay PackersMinnesota VikingsRoad-4.53.8-3.1-3.90.6
14Chicago BearsDallas CowboysHome-4.51.40.5-3.90.6
15Green Bay PackersBuffalo BillsRoad-4.53.8-3-3.80.7
5San Diego ChargersNew York JetsHome-4-0.4-2.6-5.2-1.2
5New England PatriotsCincinnati BengalsHome-43.21.1-5.1-1.1
10Arizona CardinalsSt. Louis RamsHome-4-0.3-2-4.7-0.7
11New Orleans SaintsCincinnati BengalsHome-42.81.1-4.7-0.7
7Green Bay PackersCarolina PanthersHome-43.82.1-4.7-0.7
16Miami DolphinsMinnesota VikingsHome-4-1.5-3.1-4.6-0.6
12San Diego ChargersSt. Louis RamsHome-4-0.4-2-4.6-0.6
11Carolina PanthersAtlanta FalconsHome-42.10.7-4.4-0.4
6Arizona CardinalsWashington RedskinsHome-4-0.3-1.6-4.3-0.3
1Detroit LionsNew York GiantsHome-40.9-0.3-4.2-0.2
13Atlanta FalconsArizona CardinalsHome-40.7-0.3-40
14Houston TexansJacksonville JaguarsRoad-4-1.1-8-3.90.1
3New York GiantsHouston TexansHome-4-0.3-1.1-3.80.2
12Kansas City ChiefsOakland RaidersRoad-40.8-5.8-3.60.4
8Miami DolphinsJacksonville JaguarsRoad-4-1.5-8-3.50.5
16Chicago BearsDetroit LionsHome-41.40.9-3.50.5
4Pittsburgh SteelersTampa Bay BuccaneersHome-3.50.6-1.9-5.5-2
7Washington RedskinsTennessee TitansHome-3.5-1.6-3.3-4.7-1.2
7Pittsburgh SteelersHouston TexansHome-3.50.6-1.1-4.7-1.2
3Carolina PanthersPittsburgh SteelersHome-3.52.10.6-4.5-1
11Miami DolphinsBuffalo BillsHome-3.5-1.5-3-4.5-1
15New York GiantsWashington RedskinsHome-3.5-0.3-1.6-4.3-0.8
2Carolina PanthersDetroit LionsHome-3.52.10.9-4.2-0.7
15Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ersHome-3.565.1-3.9-0.4
7Dallas CowboysNew York GiantsHome-3.50.5-0.3-3.8-0.3
9Dallas CowboysArizona CardinalsHome-3.50.5-0.3-3.8-0.3
5Carolina PanthersChicago BearsHome-3.52.11.4-3.7-0.2
14New Orleans SaintsCarolina PanthersHome-3.52.82.1-3.7-0.2
13Green Bay PackersNew England PatriotsHome-3.53.83.2-3.6-0.1
3Seattle SeahawksDenver BroncosHome-3.565.7-3.30.2
16Seattle SeahawksArizona CardinalsRoad-3.56-0.3-3.30.2
6New England PatriotsBuffalo BillsRoad-3.53.2-3-3.20.3
15Denver BroncosSan Diego ChargersRoad-3.55.7-0.4-3.10.4
15Atlanta FalconsPittsburgh SteelersHome-3.50.70.6-3.10.4
7Arizona CardinalsOakland RaidersRoad-3.5-0.3-5.8-2.51
1New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsRoad-3.53.2-1.5-1.71.8
1San Francisco 49ersDallas CowboysRoad-3.55.10.5-1.61.9
8Tampa Bay BuccaneersMinnesota VikingsHome-3-1.9-3.1-4.2-1.2
13Baltimore RavensSan Diego ChargersHome-30.4-0.4-3.8-0.8
15Philadelphia EaglesDallas CowboysHome-31.30.5-3.8-0.8
8Cincinnati BengalsBaltimore RavensHome-31.10.4-3.7-0.7
5Indianapolis ColtsBaltimore RavensHome-31.10.4-3.7-0.7
7Denver BroncosSan Francisco 49ersHome-35.75.1-3.6-0.6
14Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh SteelersHome-31.10.6-3.5-0.5
2Cincinnati BengalsAtlanta FalconsHome-31.10.7-3.4-0.4
2New England PatriotsMinnesota VikingsRoad-33.2-3.1-3.3-0.3
1Arizona CardinalsSan Diego ChargersHome-3-0.3-0.4-3.1-0.1
2New York GiantsArizona CardinalsHome-3-0.3-0.3-30
16New England PatriotsNew York JetsRoad-33.2-2.6-2.80.2
7Baltimore RavensAtlanta FalconsHome-30.40.7-2.70.3
16Green Bay PackersTampa Bay BuccaneersRoad-33.8-1.9-2.70.3
13Detroit LionsChicago BearsHome-30.91.4-2.50.5
11San Francisco 49ersNew York GiantsRoad-35.1-0.3-2.40.6
6Atlanta FalconsChicago BearsHome-30.71.4-2.30.7
13Carolina PanthersMinnesota VikingsRoad-32.1-3.1-2.20.8
13Denver BroncosKansas City ChiefsRoad-35.70.8-1.91.1
16Tennessee TitansJacksonville JaguarsRoad-3-3.3-8-1.71.3
15Chicago BearsNew Orleans SaintsHome-31.42.8-1.61.4
16St. Louis RamsNew York GiantsHome-3-2-0.3-1.31.7
1Houston TexansWashington RedskinsHome-2.5-1.1-1.6-3.5-1
2Seattle SeahawksSan Diego ChargersRoad-2.56-0.4-3.4-0.9
14Washington RedskinsSt. Louis RamsHome-2.5-1.6-2-3.4-0.9
8New York JetsBuffalo BillsHome-2.5-2.6-3-3.4-0.9
11Washington RedskinsTampa Bay BuccaneersHome-2.5-1.6-1.9-3.3-0.8
9Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore RavensHome-2.50.60.4-3.2-0.7
7Buffalo BillsMinnesota VikingsHome-2.5-3-3.1-3.1-0.6
2Tampa Bay BuccaneersSt. Louis RamsHome-2.5-1.9-2-3.1-0.6
7Indianapolis ColtsCincinnati BengalsHome-2.51.11.1-3-0.5
2Indianapolis ColtsPhiladelphia EaglesHome-2.51.11.3-2.8-0.3
13Buffalo BillsCleveland BrownsHome-2.5-3-2.7-2.7-0.2
12Buffalo BillsNew York JetsHome-2.5-3-2.6-2.6-0.1
2New Orleans SaintsCleveland BrownsRoad-2.52.8-2.7-2.50
16Dallas CowboysIndianapolis ColtsHome-2.50.51.1-2.40.1
5Tennessee TitansCleveland BrownsHome-2.5-3.3-2.7-2.40.1
3San Francisco 49ersArizona CardinalsRoad-2.55.1-0.3-2.40.1
6San Diego ChargersOakland RaidersRoad-2.5-0.4-5.8-2.40.1
6Green Bay PackersMiami DolphinsRoad-2.53.8-1.5-2.30.2
7Cleveland BrownsJacksonville JaguarsRoad-2.5-2.7-8-2.30.2
1Baltimore RavensCincinnati BengalsHome-2.50.41.1-2.30.2
9Carolina PanthersNew Orleans SaintsHome-2.52.12.8-2.30.2
12New York GiantsDallas CowboysHome-2.5-0.30.5-2.20.3
9Cleveland BrownsTampa Bay BuccaneersHome-2.5-2.7-1.9-2.20.3
11Seattle SeahawksKansas City ChiefsRoad-2.560.8-2.20.3
13San Francisco 49ersSeattle SeahawksHome-2.55.16-2.10.4
5New York GiantsAtlanta FalconsHome-2.5-0.30.7-20.5
8New Orleans SaintsGreen Bay PackersHome-2.52.83.8-20.5
9Miami DolphinsSan Diego ChargersHome-2.5-1.5-0.4-1.90.6
11Arizona CardinalsDetroit LionsHome-2.5-0.30.9-1.80.7
2Houston TexansOakland RaidersRoad-2.5-1.1-5.8-1.70.8
2Dallas CowboysTennessee TitansRoad-2.50.5-3.3-0.81.7
13Pittsburgh SteelersNew Orleans SaintsHome-2.50.62.8-0.81.7
2Baltimore RavensPittsburgh SteelersHome-20.40.6-2.8-0.8
14Minnesota VikingsNew York JetsHome-2-3.1-2.6-2.5-0.5
8Pittsburgh SteelersIndianapolis ColtsHome-20.61.1-2.5-0.5
6Cincinnati BengalsCarolina PanthersHome-21.12.1-20
14Arizona CardinalsKansas City ChiefsHome-2-0.30.8-1.90.1
7San Diego ChargersKansas City ChiefsHome-2-0.40.8-1.80.2
8Arizona CardinalsPhiladelphia EaglesHome-2-0.31.3-1.40.6
1Carolina PanthersTampa Bay BuccaneersRoad-22.1-1.9-11
11Pittsburgh SteelersTennessee TitansRoad-20.6-3.3-0.91.1
10Kansas City ChiefsBuffalo BillsRoad-20.8-3-0.81.2
10Pittsburgh SteelersNew York JetsRoad-20.6-2.6-0.21.8
16Pittsburgh SteelersKansas City ChiefsHome-1.50.60.8-2.8-1.3
15Tennessee TitansNew York JetsHome-1.5-3.3-2.6-2.3-0.8
13Dallas CowboysPhiladelphia EaglesHome-1.50.51.3-2.2-0.7
4Washington RedskinsNew York GiantsHome-1.5-1.6-0.3-1.7-0.2
16Denver BroncosCincinnati BengalsRoad-1.55.71.1-1.6-0.1
9Minnesota VikingsWashington RedskinsHome-1.5-3.1-1.6-1.50
11Cleveland BrownsHouston TexansHome-1.5-2.7-1.1-1.40.1
7Detroit LionsNew Orleans SaintsHome-1.50.92.8-1.10.4
8Seattle SeahawksCarolina PanthersRoad-1.562.1-0.90.6
15Cincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsRoad-1.51.1-2.7-0.80.7
10New Orleans SaintsSan Francisco 49ersHome-1.52.85.1-0.70.8
4Chicago BearsGreen Bay PackersHome-1.51.43.8-0.60.9
16Philadelphia EaglesWashington RedskinsRoad-1.51.3-1.60.11.6
10Philadelphia EaglesCarolina PanthersHome-11.32.1-2.2-1.2
13New York JetsMiami DolphinsHome-1-2.6-1.5-1.9-0.9
14Seattle SeahawksPhiladelphia EaglesRoad-161.3-1.7-0.7
9New York GiantsIndianapolis ColtsHome-1-0.31.1-1.6-0.6
16Houston TexansBaltimore RavensHome-1-1.10.4-1.5-0.5
2Buffalo BillsMiami DolphinsHome-1-3-1.5-1.5-0.5
15St. Louis RamsArizona CardinalsHome-1-2-0.3-1.3-0.3
4Baltimore RavensCarolina PanthersHome-10.42.1-1.3-0.3
6Detroit LionsMinnesota VikingsRoad-10.9-3.1-10
11Indianapolis ColtsNew England PatriotsHome-11.13.2-0.90.1
1Atlanta FalconsNew Orleans SaintsHome-10.72.8-0.90.1
4Atlanta FalconsMinnesota VikingsRoad-10.7-3.1-0.80.2
6Houston TexansIndianapolis ColtsHome-1-1.11.1-0.80.2
14Indianapolis ColtsCleveland BrownsRoad-11.1-2.7-0.80.2
6Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaltimore RavensHome-1-1.90.4-0.70.3
14New England PatriotsSan Diego ChargersRoad-13.2-0.4-0.60.4
4Kansas City ChiefsNew England PatriotsHome-10.83.2-0.60.4
4Detroit LionsNew York JetsRoad-10.9-2.6-0.50.5
9New England PatriotsDenver BroncosHome-13.25.7-0.50.5
3Buffalo BillsSan Diego ChargersHome-1-3-0.4-0.40.6
8Detroit LionsAtlanta FalconsLond-10.90.7-0.20.8
14New York GiantsTennessee TitansRoad-1-0.3-3.301
3Green Bay PackersDetroit LionsRoad-13.80.90.11.1
16Buffalo BillsOakland RaidersRoad-1-3-5.80.21.2
14Miami DolphinsBaltimore RavensHome0-1.50.4-1.1-1.1
3Chicago BearsNew York JetsRoad01.4-2.6-1-1
12Houston TexansCincinnati BengalsHome0-1.11.1-0.8-0.8
8Tennessee TitansHouston TexansHome0-3.3-1.1-0.8-0.8
4Dallas CowboysNew Orleans SaintsHome00.52.8-0.7-0.7
3Miami DolphinsKansas City ChiefsHome0-1.50.8-0.7-0.7
9Houston TexansPhiladelphia EaglesHome0-1.11.3-0.6-0.6
3St. Louis RamsDallas CowboysHome0-20.5-0.5-0.5
10Tampa Bay BuccaneersAtlanta FalconsHome0-1.90.7-0.4-0.4
6Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland BrownsRoad00.6-2.7-0.3-0.3
3Baltimore RavensCleveland BrownsRoad00.4-2.7-0.1-0.1
13Cincinnati BengalsTampa Bay BuccaneersRoad01.1-1.900
13Tampa Bay BuccaneersCincinnati BengalsHome0-1.91.100
3Cleveland BrownsBaltimore RavensHome0-2.70.40.10.1
6Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh SteelersHome0-2.70.60.30.3
10Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay BuccaneersRoad00.7-1.90.40.4
3Dallas CowboysSt. Louis RamsRoad00.5-20.50.5
9Philadelphia EaglesHouston TexansRoad01.3-1.10.60.6
3Kansas City ChiefsMiami DolphinsRoad00.8-1.50.70.7
4New Orleans SaintsDallas CowboysRoad02.80.50.70.7
8Houston TexansTennessee TitansRoad0-1.1-3.30.80.8
12Cincinnati BengalsHouston TexansRoad01.1-1.10.80.8
3New York JetsChicago BearsHome0-2.61.411
14Baltimore RavensMiami DolphinsRoad00.4-1.51.11.1
16Oakland RaidersBuffalo BillsHome1-5.8-3-0.2-1.2
3Detroit LionsGreen Bay PackersHome10.93.8-0.1-1.1
14Tennessee TitansNew York GiantsHome1-3.3-0.30-1
8Atlanta FalconsDetroit LionsLond10.70.90.2-0.8
3San Diego ChargersBuffalo BillsRoad1-0.4-30.4-0.6
4New York JetsDetroit LionsHome1-2.60.90.5-0.5
9Denver BroncosNew England PatriotsRoad15.73.20.5-0.5
14San Diego ChargersNew England PatriotsHome1-0.43.20.6-0.4
4New England PatriotsKansas City ChiefsRoad13.20.80.6-0.4
6Baltimore RavensTampa Bay BuccaneersRoad10.4-1.90.7-0.3
14Cleveland BrownsIndianapolis ColtsHome1-2.71.10.8-0.2
4Minnesota VikingsAtlanta FalconsHome1-3.10.70.8-0.2
6Indianapolis ColtsHouston TexansRoad11.1-1.10.8-0.2
11New England PatriotsIndianapolis ColtsRoad13.21.10.9-0.1
1New Orleans SaintsAtlanta FalconsRoad12.80.70.9-0.1
6Minnesota VikingsDetroit LionsHome1-3.10.910
4Carolina PanthersBaltimore RavensRoad12.10.41.30.3
15Arizona CardinalsSt. Louis RamsRoad1-0.3-21.30.3
2Miami DolphinsBuffalo BillsRoad1-1.5-31.50.5
16Baltimore RavensHouston TexansRoad10.4-1.11.50.5
9Indianapolis ColtsNew York GiantsRoad11.1-0.31.60.6
14Philadelphia EaglesSeattle SeahawksHome11.361.70.7
13Miami DolphinsNew York JetsRoad1-1.5-2.61.90.9
10Carolina PanthersPhiladelphia EaglesRoad12.11.32.21.2
16Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia EaglesHome1.5-1.61.3-0.1-1.6
4Green Bay PackersChicago BearsRoad1.53.81.40.6-0.9
10San Francisco 49ersNew Orleans SaintsRoad1.55.12.80.7-0.8
15Cleveland BrownsCincinnati BengalsHome1.5-2.71.10.8-0.7
8Carolina PanthersSeattle SeahawksHome1.52.160.9-0.6
7New Orleans SaintsDetroit LionsRoad1.52.80.91.1-0.4
11Houston TexansCleveland BrownsRoad1.5-1.1-2.71.4-0.1
9Washington RedskinsMinnesota VikingsRoad1.5-1.6-3.11.50
16Cincinnati BengalsDenver BroncosHome1.51.15.71.60.1
4New York GiantsWashington RedskinsRoad1.5-0.3-1.61.70.2
13Philadelphia EaglesDallas CowboysRoad1.51.30.52.20.7
15New York JetsTennessee TitansRoad1.5-2.6-3.32.30.8
16Kansas City ChiefsPittsburgh SteelersRoad1.50.80.62.81.3
10New York JetsPittsburgh SteelersHome2-2.60.60.2-1.8
10Buffalo BillsKansas City ChiefsHome2-30.80.8-1.2
11Tennessee TitansPittsburgh SteelersHome2-3.30.60.9-1.1
1Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina PanthersHome2-1.92.11-1
8Philadelphia EaglesArizona CardinalsRoad21.3-0.31.4-0.6
7Kansas City ChiefsSan Diego ChargersRoad20.8-0.41.8-0.2
14Kansas City ChiefsArizona CardinalsRoad20.8-0.31.9-0.1
6Carolina PanthersCincinnati BengalsRoad22.11.120
14New York JetsMinnesota VikingsRoad2-2.6-3.12.50.5
8Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh SteelersRoad21.10.62.50.5
2Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore RavensRoad20.60.42.80.8
2Tennessee TitansDallas CowboysHome2.5-3.30.50.8-1.7
13New Orleans SaintsPittsburgh SteelersRoad2.52.80.60.8-1.7
2Oakland RaidersHouston TexansHome2.5-5.8-1.11.7-0.8
11Detroit LionsArizona CardinalsRoad2.50.9-0.31.8-0.7
9San Diego ChargersMiami DolphinsRoad2.5-0.4-1.51.9-0.6
5Atlanta FalconsNew York GiantsRoad2.50.7-0.32-0.5
8Green Bay PackersNew Orleans SaintsRoad2.53.82.82-0.5
13Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ersRoad2.565.12.1-0.4
12Dallas CowboysNew York GiantsRoad2.50.5-0.32.2-0.3
9Tampa Bay BuccaneersCleveland BrownsRoad2.5-1.9-2.72.2-0.3
11Kansas City ChiefsSeattle SeahawksHome2.50.862.2-0.3
1Cincinnati BengalsBaltimore RavensRoad2.51.10.42.3-0.2
6Miami DolphinsGreen Bay PackersHome2.5-1.53.82.3-0.2
7Jacksonville JaguarsCleveland BrownsHome2.5-8-2.72.3-0.2
9New Orleans SaintsCarolina PanthersRoad2.52.82.12.3-0.2
6Oakland RaidersSan Diego ChargersHome2.5-5.8-0.42.4-0.1
16Indianapolis ColtsDallas CowboysRoad2.51.10.52.4-0.1
3Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ersHome2.5-0.35.12.4-0.1
5Cleveland BrownsTennessee TitansRoad2.5-2.7-3.32.4-0.1
2Cleveland BrownsNew Orleans SaintsHome2.5-2.72.82.50
12New York JetsBuffalo BillsRoad2.5-2.6-32.60.1
13Cleveland BrownsBuffalo BillsRoad2.5-2.7-32.70.2
2Philadelphia EaglesIndianapolis ColtsRoad2.51.31.12.80.3
7Cincinnati BengalsIndianapolis ColtsRoad2.51.11.130.5
2St. Louis RamsTampa Bay BuccaneersRoad2.5-2-1.93.10.6
7Minnesota VikingsBuffalo BillsRoad2.5-3.1-33.10.6
9Baltimore RavensPittsburgh SteelersRoad2.50.40.63.20.7
11Tampa Bay BuccaneersWashington RedskinsRoad2.5-1.9-1.63.30.8
8Buffalo BillsNew York JetsRoad2.5-3-2.63.40.9
14St. Louis RamsWashington RedskinsRoad2.5-2-1.63.40.9
2San Diego ChargersSeattle SeahawksHome2.5-0.463.40.9
1Washington RedskinsHouston TexansRoad2.5-1.6-1.13.51
16New York GiantsSt. Louis RamsRoad3-0.3-21.3-1.7
15New Orleans SaintsChicago BearsRoad32.81.41.6-1.4
16Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee TitansHome3-8-3.31.7-1.3
13Kansas City ChiefsDenver BroncosHome30.85.71.9-1.1
13Minnesota VikingsCarolina PanthersHome3-3.12.12.2-0.8
6Chicago BearsAtlanta FalconsRoad31.40.72.3-0.7
11New York GiantsSan Francisco 49ersHome3-0.35.12.4-0.6
13Chicago BearsDetroit LionsRoad31.40.92.5-0.5
7Atlanta FalconsBaltimore RavensRoad30.70.42.7-0.3
16Tampa Bay BuccaneersGreen Bay PackersHome3-1.93.82.7-0.3
16New York JetsNew England PatriotsHome3-2.63.22.8-0.2
2Arizona CardinalsNew York GiantsRoad3-0.3-0.330
1San Diego ChargersArizona CardinalsRoad3-0.4-0.33.10.1
2Minnesota VikingsNew England PatriotsHome3-3.13.23.30.3
2Atlanta FalconsCincinnati BengalsRoad30.71.13.40.4
14Pittsburgh SteelersCincinnati BengalsRoad30.61.13.50.5
7San Francisco 49ersDenver BroncosRoad35.15.73.60.6
5Baltimore RavensIndianapolis ColtsRoad30.41.13.70.7
8Baltimore RavensCincinnati BengalsRoad30.41.13.70.7
13San Diego ChargersBaltimore RavensRoad3-0.40.43.80.8
15Dallas CowboysPhiladelphia EaglesRoad30.51.33.80.8
8Minnesota VikingsTampa Bay BuccaneersRoad3-3.1-1.94.21.2
1Dallas CowboysSan Francisco 49ersHome3.50.55.11.6-1.9
1Miami DolphinsNew England PatriotsHome3.5-1.53.21.7-1.8
7Oakland RaidersArizona CardinalsHome3.5-5.8-0.32.5-1
15San Diego ChargersDenver BroncosHome3.5-0.45.73.1-0.4
15Pittsburgh SteelersAtlanta FalconsRoad3.50.60.73.1-0.4
6Buffalo BillsNew England PatriotsHome3.5-33.23.2-0.3
3Denver BroncosSeattle SeahawksRoad3.55.763.3-0.2
16Arizona CardinalsSeattle SeahawksHome3.5-0.363.3-0.2
13New England PatriotsGreen Bay PackersRoad3.53.23.83.60.1
14Carolina PanthersNew Orleans SaintsRoad3.52.12.83.70.2
5Chicago BearsCarolina PanthersRoad3.51.42.13.70.2
9Arizona CardinalsDallas CowboysRoad3.5-0.30.53.80.3
7New York GiantsDallas CowboysRoad3.5-0.30.53.80.3
15San Francisco 49ersSeattle SeahawksRoad3.55.163.90.4
2Detroit LionsCarolina PanthersRoad3.50.92.14.20.7
15Washington RedskinsNew York GiantsRoad3.5-1.6-0.34.30.8
11Buffalo BillsMiami DolphinsRoad3.5-3-1.54.51
3Pittsburgh SteelersCarolina PanthersRoad3.50.62.14.51
7Tennessee TitansWashington RedskinsRoad3.5-3.3-1.64.71.2
7Houston TexansPittsburgh SteelersRoad3.5-1.10.64.71.2
4Tampa Bay BuccaneersPittsburgh SteelersRoad3.5-1.90.65.52
16Detroit LionsChicago BearsRoad40.91.43.5-0.5
8Jacksonville JaguarsMiami DolphinsHome4-8-1.53.5-0.5
12Oakland RaidersKansas City ChiefsHome4-5.80.83.6-0.4
3Houston TexansNew York GiantsRoad4-1.1-0.33.8-0.2
14Jacksonville JaguarsHouston TexansHome4-8-1.13.9-0.1
13Arizona CardinalsAtlanta FalconsRoad4-0.30.740
1New York GiantsDetroit LionsRoad4-0.30.94.20.2
6Washington RedskinsArizona CardinalsRoad4-1.6-0.34.30.3
11Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersRoad40.72.14.40.4
16Minnesota VikingsMiami DolphinsRoad4-3.1-1.54.60.6
12St. Louis RamsSan Diego ChargersRoad4-2-0.44.60.6
7Carolina PanthersGreen Bay PackersRoad42.13.84.70.7
10St. Louis RamsArizona CardinalsRoad4-2-0.34.70.7
11Cincinnati BengalsNew Orleans SaintsRoad41.12.84.70.7
5Cincinnati BengalsNew England PatriotsRoad41.13.25.11.1
5New York JetsSan Diego ChargersRoad4-2.6-0.45.21.2
15Buffalo BillsGreen Bay PackersHome4.5-33.83.8-0.7
14Dallas CowboysChicago BearsRoad4.50.51.43.9-0.6
12Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay PackersHome4.5-3.13.83.9-0.6
6St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ersHome4.5-25.14.1-0.4
1Minnesota VikingsSt. Louis RamsRoad4.5-3.1-24.1-0.4
6New York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesRoad4.5-0.31.34.60.1
5Houston TexansDallas CowboysRoad4.5-1.10.54.60.1
5Washington RedskinsSeattle SeahawksHome4.5-1.664.60.1
11St. Louis RamsDenver BroncosHome4.5-25.74.70.2
8Chicago BearsNew England PatriotsRoad4.51.43.24.80.3
8Washington RedskinsDallas CowboysRoad4.5-1.60.55.10.6
15Houston TexansIndianapolis ColtsRoad4.5-1.11.15.20.7
11Philadelphia EaglesGreen Bay PackersRoad4.51.33.85.51
3Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia EaglesRoad4.5-1.61.35.91.4
8Oakland RaidersCleveland BrownsRoad4.5-5.8-2.76.11.6
1Oakland RaidersNew York JetsRoad4.5-5.8-2.66.21.7
4Oakland RaidersMiami DolphinsLond5-5.8-1.54.3-0.7
4Buffalo BillsHouston TexansRoad5-3-1.14.9-0.1
1Green Bay PackersSeattle SeahawksRoad53.865.20.2
13Tennessee TitansHouston TexansRoad5-3.3-1.15.20.2
10Miami DolphinsDetroit LionsRoad5-1.50.95.40.4
1Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh SteelersRoad5-2.70.66.31.3
1Tennessee TitansKansas City ChiefsRoad5-3.30.87.12.1
13Jacksonville JaguarsNew York GiantsHome5.5-8-0.34.7-0.8
3Tampa Bay BuccaneersAtlanta FalconsRoad5.5-1.90.75.60.1
13Oakland RaidersSt. Louis RamsRoad5.5-5.8-26.81.3
7St. Louis RamsSeattle SeahawksHome6-265-1
6New York JetsDenver BroncosHome6-2.65.75.3-0.7
12Detroit LionsNew England PatriotsRoad60.93.25.3-0.7
10Chicago BearsGreen Bay PackersRoad61.43.85.4-0.6
13Washington RedskinsIndianapolis ColtsRoad6-1.61.15.7-0.3
14Tampa Bay BuccaneersDetroit LionsRoad6-1.90.95.8-0.2
7Miami DolphinsChicago BearsRoad6-1.51.45.9-0.1
3Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis ColtsHome6-81.16.10.1
12Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago BearsRoad6-1.91.46.30.3
5St. Louis RamsPhiladelphia EaglesRoad6-21.36.30.3
9New York JetsKansas City ChiefsRoad6-2.60.86.40.4
10Tennessee TitansBaltimore RavensRoad6-3.30.46.70.7
4Philadelphia EaglesSan Francisco 49ersRoad61.35.16.80.8
16Atlanta FalconsNew Orleans SaintsRoad6.50.72.85.1-1.4
12Baltimore RavensNew Orleans SaintsRoad6.50.42.85.4-1.1
5Jacksonville JaguarsPittsburgh SteelersHome6.5-80.65.6-0.9
8St. Louis RamsKansas City ChiefsRoad6.5-20.85.8-0.7
14Atlanta FalconsGreen Bay PackersRoad6.50.73.86.1-0.4
10Cleveland BrownsCincinnati BengalsRoad6.5-2.71.16.80.3
15Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina PanthersRoad6.5-1.92.170.5
1Buffalo BillsChicago BearsRoad6.5-31.47.40.9
15Miami DolphinsNew England PatriotsRoad6.5-1.53.27.71.2
12Cleveland BrownsAtlanta FalconsRoad7-2.70.76.4-0.6
2Chicago BearsSan Francisco 49ersRoad71.45.16.7-0.3
15Minnesota VikingsDetroit LionsRoad7-3.10.970
5Kansas City ChiefsSan Francisco 49ersRoad70.85.17.30.3
3Tennessee TitansCincinnati BengalsRoad7-3.31.17.40.4
11Minnesota VikingsChicago BearsRoad7-3.11.47.50.5
12Tennessee TitansPhiladelphia EaglesRoad7-3.31.37.60.6
1Indianapolis ColtsDenver BroncosRoad71.15.77.60.6
6Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee TitansRoad7-8-3.37.70.7
2Kansas City ChiefsDenver BroncosRoad70.85.77.90.9
14Oakland RaidersSan Francisco 49ersHome7-5.85.17.90.9
16San Diego ChargersSan Francisco 49ersRoad7-0.45.18.51.5
5Buffalo BillsDetroit LionsRoad7.5-30.96.9-0.6
4Tennessee TitansIndianapolis ColtsRoad7.5-3.31.17.4-0.1
5Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans SaintsRoad7.5-1.92.87.70.2
16Cleveland BrownsCarolina PanthersRoad7.5-2.72.17.80.3
6Dallas CowboysSeattle SeahawksRoad7.50.568.51
7New York JetsNew England PatriotsRoad7.5-2.63.28.81.3
11Oakland RaidersSan Diego ChargersRoad8-5.8-0.48.40.4
8San Diego ChargersDenver BroncosRoad8.5-0.45.79.10.6
2New York JetsGreen Bay PackersRoad8.5-2.63.89.40.9
15Oakland RaidersKansas City ChiefsRoad8.5-5.80.89.61.1
12Washington RedskinsSan Francisco 49ersRoad8.5-1.65.19.71.2
5Arizona CardinalsDenver BroncosRoad9-0.35.790
2Jacksonville JaguarsWashington RedskinsRoad9-8-1.69.40.4
10Oakland RaidersDenver BroncosHome10-5.85.78.5-1.5
10Jacksonville JaguarsDallas CowboysLond10-80.58.5-1.5
3Minnesota VikingsNew Orleans SaintsRoad10-3.12.88.9-1.1
10New York GiantsSeattle SeahawksRoad10-0.369.3-0.7
5Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay PackersRoad10-3.13.89.9-0.1
12Miami DolphinsDenver BroncosRoad10-1.55.710.20.2
4Jacksonville JaguarsSan Diego ChargersRoad10-8-0.410.60.6
12Arizona CardinalsSeattle SeahawksRoad10.5-0.369.3-1.2
15Jacksonville JaguarsBaltimore RavensRoad10.5-80.411.40.9
9St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ersRoad11-25.110.1-0.9
9Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati BengalsRoad11-81.112.11.1
1Jacksonville JaguarsPhiladelphia EaglesRoad11-81.312.31.3
14Buffalo BillsDenver BroncosRoad11.5-35.711.70.2
12Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis ColtsRoad12-81.112.10.1
3Oakland RaidersNew England PatriotsRoad13-5.83.212-1
9Oakland RaidersSeattle SeahawksRoad14.5-5.8614.80.3

Some thoughts:

  • The biggest outlier games are again in week 1; as Jason Lisk noted when he ran a similar study last year, the lines build in some risk of injury (or simply risk of not knowing what’s going to happen in the future): if Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning miss time with an injury, it’s more likely to be later in the season than in week one. Additionally, if Vegas feels more confident in the early games than the late games, that will lead to some games appearing as outliers in week 1.
  • The weirdest line of the season is Tennessee/Kansas City in week 1.  The Chiefs are only 5-point home favorites: that’s 2.1 points lower than we would expect given the location of the game and the ratings of Kansas City (+0.8) and Tennessee (-3.3).
  • As a reminder, here’s a link to the 2014 schedule grid I created; I did not assign 3 points to the home team in the three London games this year.
  • For the second straight year, the Seahawks are underdogs just once: the game in San Francisco. Denver is an underdog when it travels to Seattle and Foxboro, and every other team is a dog in at least three games.
  • Oakland and Jacksonville are underdogs in each of their 15 games. Considering Oakland travels to Denver in week 17, we can safely say the Raiders and Jags are projected underdogs in every game this year.
  1. Just to be clear, this analysis includes 3 points for each home team except in the London games, so these are more accurately thought of as location-adjusted expected margins of victory. []
{ 16 comments }
  • Bryan Frye May 27, 2014, 9:28 am

    I wanted to see what this meant when applied to SRS-adjusted Pythagorean wins. Some of the results were interesting to me.

    By just the SRS method, you get the following results through 15 games

    DEN - 13 wins
    SEA - 14 wins
    NWE - 12 wins
    SFO - 12 wins
    JAX - 0 wins
    OAK - 1 win
    NYJ - 3 wins
    

    But when you apply Pythagorean rules (I had to cheat a little and use last year’s 23.4 PPG league average), the order changes some. I’ll explain what I did so it makes even an ounce of sense. Using the headings from your columns:
    Tm SRS + 23.4 = A
    Opp SRS + 23.4 = B
    A +/- 1.5 for home/road = C
    B +/- 1.5 for home/road = D
    [C^2.37/(C^2.37+D^2.37)]*15 = Pythagorean Wins

    I could have used Pythagenpat, but I got lazy.

    With that math, you get:

    DEN - 9.3 wins
    SEA - 9.1 wins
    NWE - 8.7 wins
    SFO - 8.9 wins
    JAX - 4.2 wins
    OAK - 4.9 win
    NYJ - 6.6 wins
    

    I don’t like how it pushes everything towards 8 wins, but it interesting how it affects the order at the top of the list.

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart May 27, 2014, 11:20 am

      Very cool stuff. It makes sense to see Denver ahead of Seattle here due to SOS.

      Reply
  • Bryan Frye May 27, 2014, 9:51 am

    Looking into it a little more, it seems both methods give some pretty strange looking results. The SRS method (if I am reading it correctly) says Dallas wins the NFC East, and Detroit gets a 6 seed. It also says Pittsburgh wins the AFC North, and Houston and Cincy get the 5th and 6th seeds.

    The Pythagorean method puts 2013’s NFC playoff teams back in, swapping New Orleans and Carolina. It also keeps 2013’s AFC division winners in place, but it puts Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the WC spots. From my experience picking playoff teams in May, I think the odds say both methods will fail terribly.

    Reply
  • George May 27, 2014, 11:30 am

    I’ll take a go at the oddness of the Titans at the Chiefs line. I’ve started “solving” (Winston/Stern method) for things other than just offensive and defensive ratings (trying to build a better model). If you start solving for other things such as Individual Homefield Advantages (HFA) which average out to around 3, and then solve for Home and Away Random Error factors averaged to 0 (along the lines – admittedly this is for other sports – of what Stephen Clarke and the crowd at Swinburne University added to their Australian Football model, which also included individual HFA’s) you will note Kansas City (admittedly this is over a sample of 8 games and there appears to be no correlation year on year) had the worst HFA last year of (give or take) -6.85 (max HFA last year I had Buffalo at 14.17 which is why I now have them rated last). The Chiefs home random error I also had at -3.85 (so total negative effect of playing at home of around 10 points).

    Therefore I am assuming the bookmakers are probably trying to factor in that Kansas aren’t that great at home, and even if their HFA regresses toward the mean, the chances are that it is still likely to be negative along with any random error associated with it. The major caveat with all of this is we are solving these over a small sample size (e.g. 7 or 8 home games) the however is that it reduced the sum of the squared error in my model by 6-7% which I took as being significant (which I don’t know if it’s the case but it’s a start).

    Reply

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