The first round quarterback with the closest comparable surrounding college talent — a left-handed former Florida QB drafted in 2010 — doesn’t appear to be a very promising comparison. Tim Tebow’s top wide receiver was drafted 22nd overall (Percy Harvin) in 2009, and successive linemen Pouncey brothers were drafted in the top 20 the next two years (Maurkice went #18 in 2010 and Mike #15 in 2011).1 Tebow is obviously very different from Manziel, most notably in lacking the important skill for a quarterback of being able to throw a football well. But Tebow may have looked better as a college player in part because of the great talent around him, a situation which may be similar to Manziel.
In general, does having better college teammates cause QBs like Manziel to be overvalued in the draft? Or, do better QBs cause their college teammates to be overdrafted? To check these ideas out, I compared how draft picks performed in their first five years (according to PFR’s Approximate Value) relative to their expected value given their draft position.2 I then compared performance relative to expectation for players who had the benefit of teammates who were drafted in the first round to those who weren’t so lucky. The results are certainly not what I expected: by the end of this post, it might be Bucs fans who worry the most that they overvalued a high pick in the 2014 draft.
I first considered the value above expectation (VAE) for quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds since 1984. It looks like having a lineman drafted in the first round either in the same or subsequent draft has no clear impact on the QB’s VAE. Those QBs who played with first-round linemen do about 1.8 points worse in VAE than QBs (relative to a baseline of 22.2), but this difference isn’t close to being distinguishable from zero.3
Here’s the list of QBs from the first three rounds who had at least one lineman drafted in the first round of the same or subsequent draft.4 The VAE for the last few entries is missing because those players have not finished their first five seasons. Keep in mind that the VAEs cannot be too low for third-round picks like Bobby Hoying, since little was expected of them given their draft position.
|Boomer Esiason||1984||41.3||Maryland||Ron Solt|
|Chuck Long||1986||-18.7||Iowa||Mike Haight|
|Todd Marinovich||1991||-21.2||USC||Pat Harlow|
|Matt Blundin||1992||-19.2||Virginia||Ray Roberts|
|Billy Joe Hobert||1993||-8.4||Washington||Lincoln Kennedy|
|Rick Mirer||1993||-5.8||Notre Dame||Aaron Taylor|
|Kerry Collins||1995||-6.8||Penn St.||Jeff Hartings; Andre Johnson|
|Todd Collins||1995||-10||Michigan||Trezelle Jenkins|
|Bobby Hoying||1996||-9.6||Ohio St.||Orlando Pace|
|Charlie Batch||1998||14.9||East. Michigan||L.J. Shelton|
|Eli Manning||2004||9.5||Mississippi||Chris Spencer|
|Brian Brohm||2008||-15.7||Louisville||Eric Wood|
|Chad Henne||2008||6.4||Michigan||Jake Long|
|Matt Ryan||2008||37.9||Boston Col.||Gosder Cherilus|
|Sam Bradford||2010||0||Oklahoma||Trent Williams|
|Tim Tebow||2010||0||Florida||Maurkice Pouncey; Mike Pouncey|
|Andrew Luck||2012||0||Stanford||David DeCastro|
|Ryan Tannehill||2012||0||Texas A&M||Luke Joeckel|
|Russell Wilson||2012||0||Wisconsin||Kevin Zeitler; Travis Frederick|
There are definitely some classic failures on this list, notably Todd Marinovich, but there are some big successes, too. And, for the more recent QBs, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson will more than balance out Tebow. Overall, there’s little reason to think getting to play with a first-round lineman causes QBs to be overdrafted in general. As a result, Manziel critics may not have much support if they want to point to Matthews and Joeckel as the reason for Manziel’s college success.
But what about the presence of Mike Evans? Does having an elite wide receiver or tight end mean that a QB might be overvalued in the draft? I ran a separate regression looking at whether having a first-round WR/TE predicts a QB to succeed or flop relative to his expectation. Here, there’s more reason to think there might be something going on, but there is still not clear evidence that teammates make the QB. Part of this is just the relatively small number of QBs with first-round WR/TEs in the sample. On average, QBs with first-round WR/TE teammates in college do 6.5 points worse relative to expectation than other QBs. That gap is still indistinguishable from zero, however.5
Below are the QBs since 1984 who had at least one WR/TE teammate in the same or following year drafted in the first round.
|Vinny Testaverde||1987||-4.5||Miami (FL)||Michael Irvin|
|Tony Sacca||1992||-17.7||Penn St.||O.J. McDuffie|
|Rick Mirer||1993||-5.8||Notre Dame||Irv Smith|
|Kerry Collins||1995||-6.8||Penn St.||Kyle Brady|
|Kordell Stewart||1995||19.9||Colorado||Michael Westbrook|
|Bobby Hoying||1996||-9.6||Ohio St.||Terry Glenn; Rickey Dudley|
|Peyton Manning||1998||40.5||Tennessee||Marcus Nash|
|Marques Tuiasosopo||2001||-14.2||Washington||Jerramy Stevens|
|Chris Simms||2003||-2.3||Texas||Roy Williams|
|Matt Schaub||2004||10.9||Virginia||Heath Miller|
|JaMarcus Russell||2007||-30.5||LSU||Dwayne Bowe; Craig Davis|
|Sam Bradford||2010||0||Oklahoma||Jermaine Gresham|
|Brandon Weeden||2012||0||Oklahoma St.||Justin Blackmon|
|Robert Griffin||2012||0||Baylor||Kendall Wright|
|Geno Smith||2013||0||West Virginia||Tavon Austin|
The repeats from the earlier list who were blessed with great help both on the line and at WR/TE were Rick Mirer, Kerry Collins and Sam Bradford.6 As you can see, Peyton Manning swings this upwards, but JaMarcus Russell swings it down just as much. Both of those would seem to be anecdotes that fit the story of teammates potentially inflating another player’s perceived value, with the QB inflating the WR (the instantly forgotten Marcus Nash) in Manning’s case and the WR (Dwayne Bowe) perhaps inflating the QB in Russell’s case.
Overall, though, it’s unclear whether WRs in general tend to inflate their QBs, making them overvalued in the draft. The effect size is substantial and just three of the 11 QBs have positive VAE, but it could be driven by random chance given the small sample size.7 Given what I find below for predicting WR success, I suspect that the Manning-Nash example may happen more often than the Russell-Bowe situation.
Do great college quarterbacks cause NFL talent evaluators to reach for their wide receiver and tight end teammates? It seems like the answer to this question might be yes. Receivers selected in rounds 1-3 who come from schools with first-round QBs drafted the same or following year do 6.4 points worse relative to expectation from their draft position. Here, we have more data and the results are statistically significant that having a first-round college QB has led to their wide receivers being overvalued in the draft.8 WRs drafted in the first three rounds without a top QB generated an average value in their first five years of 17.6, so the predicted drop in value is down to about 11.2. Having a first round QB thus predicts a WR gets taken a little more than a round too early.9
In fact, from 1984 to 2009, only 20% of the round 1-3 WR/TEs who played with first-round QBs had a positive VAE.
And at least one of the successes on this list is an exception that fits the broader idea. Percy Harvin played with a QB who just maybe was a slight reach as a first round pick. It’s hard to think that Tim Tebow made Percy Harvin look good.10 At least based on these results, having a great college QB has caused wide receivers to be drafted much too highly over the last thirty years.
So it seems like Bucs fans might have more to worry about than Browns fans. The evidence is unclear on whether QBs such as Manziel generally become overvalued from playing with first-round receiver talent, although there might be something going on there. But the evidence is much clearer that WRs such as Evans become overvalued from playing with premier college QBs. Perhaps it’s not surprising from what we know about the NFL that there’s a pretty good chance that Manziel’s excellence helped inflate Evans’s value.
Of course, the last example of a 6’5 receiver drafted in the top ten who played with a first-round Heisman-winning QB doesn’t bode well for Evans, either.11 And while Evans will likely still be in the NFL after six years unlike Mike Williams, it is likely that he would have gone lower in the draft if he played with a quarterback not quite so good as Johnny Football.
- And he had a talented tight end go in the fourth round in 2010, too. Like Tebow, he is also no longer playing football. Let’s move on. [↩]
- I did this by running a regression of a player’s value in the first five years on a fifth-order polynomial in draft position. This is pretty much the same thing as looking at the value a player generates compared to their expected value according to Chase’s chart, except I also control for whether a player went to a major football school. [↩]
- The p-value is 0.70 [↩]
- All analysis in this post ignores the supplemental draft. [↩]
- p = .20 [↩]
- All of those first-rounders were actually TEs (Irv Smith, Kyle Brady and Jermaine Gresham, respectively), although Collins also threw to a second-round WR in Bobby Engram. [↩]
- Kordell Stewart is one of those three and he did play a little WR in his first few years, too, but almost all of his value was at QB [↩]
- The p-value for this effect is .01 [↩]
- For wide receivers, I estimate 17.6 as being the expected value generated by about the 46th pick, with 11.2 the expected value generated by the 89th pick [↩]
- I’d argue the same for Dwayne Bowe and JaMarcus Russell, but Russell at least was a legitimately excellent passer in 2006 [↩]
- The similarities don’t stop there. Mike Williams is listed at 229 lbs and ran a 4.56 40 at the combine. Evans is at 231 and ran a 4.53. And they’re both named Mike. [↩]