Predictions: Is it Too Early to Get Excited (Or Worried) About Rookie QBs?

August 18, 2014 History

The preseason is meaningless, right? Well, as it turns out, it might give us a window into quarterback development, despite what you might think. The threshold for whether the preseason is useful is whether including that information tells us anything about a quarterback’s potential that we don’t already know from his draft position (or perhaps […]

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The New CBA and the Youthification of NFL Rosters

August 7, 2014 History

Some teams, like the Rams have done a good job of fielding a very young roster; others, like the Raiders, have made a conscious effort to head in the other direction. Overall, the Rams are more representative of the current trend. NFL teams have made a shift towards younger players in the last three years, although […]

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Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft, Part 2

June 3, 2014 Draft

Last week, I wrote about whether having great college teammates might cause quarterbacks and wide receivers to be overvalued in the NFL draft. The results were inconclusive on the impact of teammates on quarterbacks, but they indicated that wide receivers who played with first-round QBs in college tended to underperform in the NFL relative to […]

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Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft

May 28, 2014 Draft

Do players get too much credit when teammates make them look good? Take Johnny Manziel. In the last thirty years, no quarterback has had teammates around him drafted so highly. Last year, his left tackle (Luke Joeckel) was the second pick in the draft. This year, his new left tackle (Jake Matthews) was the sixth […]

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Finding Comparables For Mike Glennon

September 25, 2013 Data Dump

It’s official in Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman is out and Mike Glennon is in at starting quarterback. But what are the odds that Glennon actually plays well this year? I’m not very optimistic for a couple of reasons. Vincent Jackson is a star, but he’s dealing with injuries to his ribs. On 30 passes aimed […]

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The 2012 Colts were very rookie-heavy, with one big exception

July 22, 2013 Random Perspective On

Last week, I wrote about how the 2012 Redskins were powered by a pair of rookies in Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris. The only team whose rookies had more passing/rushing/receiving yards in NFL history was the 2012 Colts, while the only non-expansion team with a higher percentage of yards from rookies was the ’55 […]

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Robert Griffin III, Alfred Morris, and relying on rookies

July 12, 2013 Rookies

The Washington Redskins were powered by a pair of rookie stars in 2012. We all know about Robert Griffin III, but sixth round pick Alfred Morris finished second in the league in rushing. Griffin’s efficiency numbers were unmatched — he led the NFL in both yards per pass and yards per run — en route […]

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Why Trent Richardson’s 3.6 YPC average does not matter

July 10, 2013 Rookies

Just about every article about Trent Richardson references his unimpressive 3.6 yards per carry average from last season. That stat is pretty meaningless, in my opinion. I suppose if you took a random running back from NFL history, and his YPC average in one random season was 3.6, and I knew nothing else about the […]

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Rookie Passing, Rushing, and Receiving

June 22, 2013 Data Dump

In the graph below, the blue line shows the number of passing yards by rookies in each year since 1970, while the red line shows the number of passing yards by non-rookies in the same season. Both are measured against the left Y-Axis; the green line shows the percentage of rookie passing yards to veteran […]

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Projecting Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris, a year later

February 25, 2013 Rookies

In the pre-season, I wrote three pieces on Cleveland Browns rookie Trent Richardson.  As part of a thought experiment, I wondered who would lead the NFL in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021? I narrowed my finalists to LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells (was I drunk?), DeMarco Murray (ouch), Richardson and the rest of the rookies, […]

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Comparing rookie quarterbacks to their team’s prior year’s stats

February 21, 2013 Passing

Since 1990, there have been 48 rookie quarterbacks that threw at least 224 pass attempts, the necessary amount to qualify for the league’s efficiency ratings. There are many conventional ways to measure rookie quarterbacks, but the off-season lets us play around with more obscure measures. For example, have you ever considered how rookie quarterbacks performed […]

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Russell Wilson continues the NFL’s rookie movement at quarterback

August 27, 2012 Passing

Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were drafted as franchise saviors, and have been expected to start on opening day for months; more recently Brandon Weeden in Cleveland and Ryan Tannehill in Miami won starting jobs. Then, last night, Pete Carroll announced that Russell Wilson had beaten Matt Flynn in the Seahawks quarterback battle. Barring […]

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Expect more MJD-style holdouts in the future

August 10, 2012 Rookies

The Maurice Jones-Drew holdout is slightly different than the typical holdouts we see every summer. As a 27-year-old running back, Jones-Drew is seeking his last big contract. But with a new owner and regime in Jacksonville, management is understandably hesitant to give a large contract to a player who already has two years remaining on […]

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How often does the best rookie running back end up having the best career?

August 7, 2012 History

Yesterday, I looked at how frequently the highest drafted rookie running back ended leading his draft class in rushing yards. Today, we’ll examine how often the best rookie running back ends up being having the most career rushing yards among the members from his class. I performed this same exercise at wide receiver, and concluded […]

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Random Perspective On: The 2012 Cincinnati Bengals

July 24, 2012 Random Perspective On

In the first post at Football Perspective, I noted that A.J. Green became the first player in over 25 years to be the first wide receiver drafted and then lead all rookies in receiving yards during his rookie season. It’s a good thing that Green has a knack for bucking trends, because he’s going to […]

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How have previous Justin Blackmons fared?

June 15, 2012 Receiving

Justin Blackmon was the first receiver selected in April’s draft. What are the odds that the former Oklahoma State Cowboy will be the best rookie receiver in 2012? And how likely is it that Blackmon will ultimately be the best receiver out of his class? In some ways, it’s an unfair question. There were 33 […]

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