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Finding Comparables For Mike Glennon

by Chase Stuart on September 25, 2013

in Data Dump, Quarterbacks, Rookies

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy.

It’s official in Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman is out and Mike Glennon is in at starting quarterback. But what are the odds that Glennon actually plays well this year? I’m not very optimistic for a couple of reasons.

Vincent Jackson is a star, but he’s dealing with injuries to his ribs. On 30 passes aimed at Jackson this year, Freeman has picked up 265 yards, an average of 8.83 yards per attempt. On 23 targets to Mike Williams, Freeman has averaged 5.5 yards per pass. On his other 38 targets, Freeman’s averaged just 4.7 yards per pass. Right now, there simply aren’t enough weapons in Tampa Bay, as the Bucs desperately could use a receiving tight end and a slot receiver.

But here’s another reason not to expect much from Glennon. Since 1978, there are 30 rookie quarterbacks who are “similar” to Glennon in that they met the following three criteria:

  • Were not first round picks
  • Did not start in week 1 (i.e., they didn’t pull a Russell Wilson and win the job with a great training camp — they generally became the starter because the man in front of them was ineffective); and
  • Started at least four games as a rookie.


As it turns out, only two of the 30 quarterbacks finished above the league average in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. In other words, expectations should be very tempered for Glennon. The average passer was 1.6 Adjusted Net Yards below league average, and the median quarterback was 1.4 ANY below average. Here’s how to read the line of the most successful quarterback of the thirty, Don Majkowski.

In 1987, Majkowski was a 10th round pick, and the 255th overall selection by the Packers. He started 5 games, completed 55 of 127 passes for 875 and 5 touchdowns, and three three interceptions. He also took 10 sacks for 77 yards. The Majik man averaged 5.57 ANY/A while the league average was 5.04 that season, so he has an Relative ANY/A of +0.53.

Quarterback
Year
Rd
Ovr
Team
GS
Cmp
Att
Pyd
TD
INT
Sk
Skyd
ANY/A
LgANY/A
RANY/A
Don Majkowski198710255GNB5551278755310775.575.040.53
Charlie Batch1998260DET121733032178116372225.615.310.3
Shaun King1999250TAM5891468757411784.825.18-0.36
T.J. Yates20115152HOU5821349493315745.375.9-0.53
Chris Chandler1988376IND131292331619812181284.435.02-0.59
Tony Banks1996242STL1319236825441515483064.485.14-0.66
Rodney Peete19896141DET8103195147959271644.555.24-0.69
Jake Plummer1997242ARI915729622031515522914.425.16-0.75
Nick Foles2012388PHI6161265169965201315.135.93-0.8
Trent Edwards2007392BUF9151269163078121054.645.52-0.87
Gus Frerotte19947197WAS446100600553184.445.38-0.94
Colt McCoy2010385CLE8135222157669231324.735.73-1
Boomer Esiason1984238CIN451102530335523.775-1.24
David Woodley19808214MIA1117632718501417171273.64.87-1.27
Billy Joe Tolliver1989251SDG5891851097589753.935.24-1.31
Tom Hodson1990359NWE68515696845201473.845.29-1.45
Charlie Frye2005367CLE598164100245221353.885.34-1.46
Neil Lomax1981233STL71192361575410322863.435-1.57
John Skelton20105155ARI460126662229654.055.73-1.68
Bruce Gradkowski20066194TAM11177328166199251463.655.38-1.72
Jack Trudeau1986247IND112044172225818292133.054.96-1.9
Jeff Komlo19799231DET1418336822381123403612.64.61-2.01
John Beck2007240MIA4601075591310693.215.52-2.31
Jimmy Clausen2010248CAR10157299155839332232.985.73-2.75
Eric Zeier1995384CLE4821618644915912.555.41-2.87
Craig Krenzel20045148CHI55912771836231582.335.63-3.3
Luke McCown200441062TM4489860847121222.285.63-3.35
Ryan Lindley20126185ARI4891717520712911.895.93-4.04
Randall Cunningham1985237PHI4348154818201500.574.86-4.29
Keith Null20096196STL4731195663913821.055.65-4.6

{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }

Shattenjager September 25, 2013 at 12:45 pm

Someone was worse in ANY/A than Randall Cunningham??!!

This is quite an ugly group of quarterbacks. Esiason and Lomax were good; Plummer eventually put together a really good three-year run in Denver; and Cunningham, Chandler and Frerotte were at least legitimate starters. The rest really were not good. And Esiason, Lomax, Plummer, and Cunningham were all in the top half of the second round, not the middle of round three.

Is the fact that he feels safe handing the reins over to a third-round rookie a sign that Schiano has some job security or is it a sign that he’s desperate to figure out some way to win a few games and save his job?

Reply

Chase Stuart September 25, 2013 at 12:47 pm

Ha, we can always count on you for a Marion Campbell reference!

I think the latter. And Schiano isn’t making it to 2014, anyway. Probably not Domenik, either.

Reply

Shattenjager September 25, 2013 at 1:49 pm

I think it will be interesting to see what happens with Freeman once Schiano is gone. I think his problems may be just as much Schiano and Morris problems as they are his, so if he gets a good offensive coach, it will be interesting to see if he suddenly improves.

Reply

Shattenjager September 25, 2013 at 1:50 pm

Sort of like when Aundray Bruce got away from the conservative coach with whom he didn’t get along and became . . . okay so that didn’t work out. ;)

Reply

Richie September 25, 2013 at 1:55 pm

At first I was wondering if it was fair to use ANY/A for all games. If you take a rookie who was probably getting 2nd-string reps all summer, and then suddenly throw him to the wolves during the season, it would seem likely that he would struggle in his first few games. But I took a quick look at some of the QB’s who went on to be somewhat successful, and it doesn’t look like removing their first couple starts helps much.

But I did find something interesting on Boomer Esiason. I wonder if he really started 4 games. PFR says yes. But his pass attempts in the 4 starts: 24, 26, 2, 6. Did they really bench him after just 2 pass attempts? In his “3rd” start, he attempted 2 passes. The Bengals won easily, including jumping out to a 14-0 lead after the 1st quarter. His “4th” start was also 6 pass attempts. The Bengals won, but it was a closer game.

Reply

Shattenjager September 25, 2013 at 3:09 pm

It appears that most expected Turk Schonert to start that Atlanta game beforehand but Wyche did not actually name a starter: http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=orhJAAAAIBAJ&sjid=hRANAAAAIBAJ&dq=boomer%20esiason%20atlanta&pg=5360%2C73719 (There are a few other articles I found that said the same thing.) I didn’t spend a ton of time looking but did not see anything that mentioned whether he or Schonert actually started.

Esiason did apparently start the later game against New Orleans before being benched in favor of Ken Anderson: http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=KJwzAAAAIBAJ&sjid=zDIHAAAAIBAJ&dq=boomer%20esiason%20atlanta&pg=6714%2C5458129

It sounds like Wyche was playing musical chairs at QB all year once Anderson got hurt.

Reply

Shattenjager September 25, 2013 at 3:10 pm

That was supposed to be a reply to Richie. Apparently I forgot to hit the “reply” button.

Reply

Richie September 25, 2013 at 6:26 pm

Hmmm…that article talks about somebody named “Norman”. :)

Reply

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