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A quick data dump today. Since 1960, players who record 20+ carries in a game were on the winning side of things 72.7% of the time. Steven Jackson, however, is just 30-31-1 in his 62 games where he has had at least 20 carries. Given that we would “expect” a player to win 45.1 games given 62 games with 20 carries, Jackson’s 30.5 wins falls 14.6 wins shy of expectation. That, perhaps not surprisingly to regular readers, is the worst record relative to expectation among all running backs since 1960.

The table below shows all running backs who had at least 20 games with 20+ carries over the last 55 years, including the postseason. Thurman Thomas is on top of the table because he had 71 games with 20+ carries, and his teams went 63-8 in those games for an incredible 0.887 winning percentage. That gave Thomas 11.4 wins over expectation, the most ever. If you want to sort by a different category (say, win%), you can: the table is fully sortable and searchable. [click to continue…]

{ 5 comments }

I previously looked at points per game by each quarterback in his starts and points per game allowed by each quarterback in his starts. Please check there for the fine print.

Today, we put it all together, for a list of points differential per game in games started by each quarterback.

RkQuarterbackGPFPAPDWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Otto Graham8326.7814.4212.36661610.801501955
2Russell Wilson5625.8415.7310.11421400.75282014
3Tom Brady23627.8618.8691815500.7671262014
4Daryle Lamonica9726.6217.898.73702160.753491973
5Roger Staubach13123.8215.318.52963500.733611979
6Aaron Rodgers11428.520.987.52763800.667382014
7Joe Montana18724.6317.357.271335400.711791994
8Terry Bradshaw17722.8515.687.171215600.684651983
9Steve Young15725.7618.846.921025500.65471999
10Bart Starr16722.9916.686.311035860.635451971
10Bob Waterfield2527.9221.846.08151000.651952
11Johnny Unitas19424.3618.535.831246640.649581973
12Len Dawson16723.5117.85.72996080.617391975
13Don Meredith8926.6121.045.56493640.573131968
13Don Strock2324.52195.5216700.69691988
14Danny White10225.2319.735.5673500.657321987
15Peyton Manning28026.9221.535.391909000.6791002014
16Joe Flacco12723.6818.345.34824500.646372014
17Ben Roethlisberger17323.6118.45.211165700.671592014
18Jim McMahon10320.7515.595.16703300.68371994
19Mark Rypien8523.3818.484.89523300.612191995
20Philip Rivers15325.6320.764.86926100.601312014
21Frank Ryan9024.8420.184.67582930.661291968
22Donovan McNabb17722.9218.284.641076910.607382011
23Rich Gannon13824.219.574.63795900.572202004
24Charlie Conerly9221.7817.324.47583310.636251961
25Norm Van Brocklin10526.7422.294.46633840.619251960
26Bob Griese16221.1516.774.38986130.614371980
27Brett Favre32224.0719.754.3219912300.618762010
28Pat Haden6020.2716.054.22372210.625151981
29Kurt Warner12826.6622.464.2755300.586222009
30Ken Stabler15822.5118.424.091035410.655491983
31Jack Kemp11123.319.214.09674130.617261969
32Jim Kelly17723.219.184.031106700.621431996
32Don Heinrich3720.7316.74.03221320.62291962
33Troy Aikman18021.9418.013.941057500.583302000
34Earl Morrall10720.9717.043.93673730.64301975
35Drew Brees21226.6622.763.91238900.58342014
35James Harris4419.0715.23.86261800.59181978
36John Elway25223.2719.433.841628910.645731998
36Rudy Bukich382319.213.79211430.59271966
36Dieter Brock1720.0616.293.7612500.70671985
37David Woodley5821.6717.933.74372010.647171985
37Colin Kaepernick4523.62203.62291600.644132014
37Steve Bono4320.8117.213.6281500.651131998
38Joe Theismann13221.9618.373.59834900.629341985
39Elvis Grbac7322.4118.883.53413200.56292001
40Randall Cunningham14423.0619.563.5855810.594272001
41Bobby Layne13923.7320.243.48835240.612311962
42Jay Fiedler6320.7317.323.41382500.603132004
42Nick Foles252723.683.32151000.652014
43Milt Plum10421.718.523.18564260.567141967
44Tony Romo12925.2822.13.18775200.597252014
45Roman Gabriel15921.318.382.91866670.563201976
46Brad Johnson12521.3818.52.88725300.576192008
46Pat Ryan2123.8120.952.8612900.57131989
46Johnny Lujack2022.5519.72.8513700.6561951
47Andy Dalton6823.1320.512.62402710.596132014
47Tarvaris Jackson3522.2919.692.6171800.486-12011
48Phil Simms16920.317.732.571016800.598331993
49Steve Grogan13822.3819.862.52756300.543121990
49Bobby Thomason4220.3618.052.31192210.464-31957
50Dan Marino25823.0420.752.2915510300.601521999
51Doug Flutie6820.7418.52.24383000.55982004
52Brian Griese8322.0419.862.18453800.54272008
53Y.A. Tittle13924.3922.212.18785650.579221964
54Matt Ryan11524.322.132.17674800.583192014
55George Blanda10725.2323.12.13555110.51941968
56Kordell Stewart8620.1718.052.13503600.581142003
56Bob Lee3217.9715.842.13201200.62581977
57Mike Tomczak7820.7218.672.05453300.577121999
58Steve McNair16321.7219.692.03966700.589292007
59Ken Anderson17821.3119.292.03938500.52281985
59Shaun King2719.5217.522151200.55632004
59Virgil Carter3120.3518.352161500.51611975
60Jake Delhomme10421.7319.781.95614300.587182010
61Craig Morton15419.1417.251.89866710.562191982
61Tommy O'Connell212018.191.8111820.57131961
61Jeff Kemp3020.919.11.8161310.5531991
62Jeff Hostetler8821.0619.311.75553300.625221997
63Ron Jaworski15119.0617.321.74777310.51341989
64Dave Krieg18421.3419.731.61018300.549181996
65Bobby Hebert10321.2619.681.58564700.54491996
66Rex Grossman5121.920.331.57272400.52932011
66Shaun Hill3422.0620.51.56161800.471-22014
67Joe Kapp5219.1517.61.56262330.52931970
68Mark Brunell16121.6120.081.53837800.51652009
69Trent Green11525.0723.581.49565900.487-32008
70John Hadl16921.9620.531.43827890.51241977
71Mark Sanchez7622.2620.921.34413500.53962014
72Jay Schroeder10420.1618.871.3644000.615241994
73Alex Smith10821.2119.941.28584910.54292014
74Andrew Luck5424.823.541.26361800.667182014
75Stan Humphries8721.6220.41.22533400.609191997
76Drew Bledsoe19920.7419.541.21019800.50832006
76Brian Hoyer172220.821.1810700.58832014
76Matt Cavanaugh1920.7919.631.1681100.421-31986
77Eli Manning17823.6222.481.15997900.556202014
77Jim Miller2820.14191.14151300.53622002
78Chad Pennington8720.6419.531.11464100.52952010
79Vince Young5121.5920.491.1312000.608112011
79Gary Cuozzo4118.8517.761.1212000.51211972
79Matt Moore2318.6517.740.91111200.478-12011
79Jim Ninowski3120.0319.190.84151510.501968
80Ed Brown9921.9721.190.78553950.581161964
81Neil O'Donnell10719.8719.120.75584900.54292003
82Dan Fouts17823.7723.030.74898810.50311987
83Gary Danielson6120.4819.750.72283210.467-41988
84Billy Kilmer12120.1719.480.69635710.52561978
85Kyle Orton8220.7320.060.67424000.51222014
86Cam Newton6522.8222.250.57313310.485-22014
87David Garrard7821.6521.090.56403800.51322010
88Bill Nelsen7922.8122.270.54423430.55181972
89Wade Wilson7421.5521.010.54383600.51421998
89John Roach1922.0521.530.5371110.395-41964
90Michael Vick11522.2321.760.47615310.53582014
91Fran Tarkenton25021.420.940.4613011460.532161978
92Warren Moon21321.921.450.4610510800.493-32000
93Billy Wade8622.4722.050.42414320.488-21965
94Bernie Kosar11520.8420.430.42565810.491-21995
95Eric Hipple5820.0519.640.41283000.483-21989
96Matt Schaub9223.6523.240.41474500.51122013
97Jeff Garcia12222.5522.160.39606200.492-22008
98Trent Dilfer11917.8217.520.3635600.52972007
99Bill Kenney7721.7521.490.26344300.442-91988
99Scott Hunter4316.8116.650.16211930.52321977
100Steve Beuerlein10420.2520.10.15485600.462-82003
101Vince Ferragamo5921.5821.460.12302900.50811985
102Charley Johnson12422.2322.190.04595780.50821975
103Jim Plunkett15420.4120.410807400.51961986
103Cody Carlson2019.719.7011900.5521994
104Mark Malone5520.1120.13-0.02243100.436-71988
105Charlie Batch5520.6920.71-0.02253000.455-52012
106Matt Hasselbeck16322.1722.2-0.02857800.52172012
106Steve Ramsey3119.3919.52-0.13141700.452-31976
107Greg Landry9918.9119.18-0.27445230.46-81984
108Bubby Brister7719.3519.66-0.31383900.494-11998
109Bill Munson6618.6819.05-0.36273450.447-71975
110Boomer Esiason17821.8722.25-0.38839500.466-121997
111Babe Parilli10422.1922.59-0.39504770.51431967
111Matt Robinson2022.422.8-0.4101000.501980
112Gus Frerotte9521.3721.8-0.43454910.479-42008
113Steve Bartkowski13120.3820.82-0.44607100.458-111986
114Jim Hart18221.0421.49-0.45879050.492-31983
115Scott Mitchell7322.4122.89-0.48324100.438-92000
115Anthony Wright2017.6518.15-0.581200.4-42005
116Mike Livingston7519.4520.01-0.56314310.42-121979
116Frankie Albert3219.0919.72-0.63141710.453-31952
117Tony Banks7819.1819.83-0.65354300.449-82003
117Tommy Maddox3821.2921.95-0.66162110.434-52005
117Ryan Tannehill4820.6921.35-0.67232500.479-22014
118Joe Namath13222.4223.1-0.67646440.501977
119Matthew Stafford7923.6324.33-0.7354400.443-92014
119Steve Fuller4417.4118.14-0.73202400.455-41986
120Tommy Kramer11420.5521.32-0.77565800.491-21989
121Carson Palmer14522.0122.83-0.82707500.483-52014
122Tony Eason5620.7921.61-0.82312500.55461989
123Marc Wilson6120.3921.25-0.85322900.52531990
124Don Majkowski5719.4420.33-0.89263010.465-41996
124Todd Blackledge3019.8720.77-0.9151500.501989
125John Brodie16421.6322.55-0.91768080.488-41973
126Doug Williams8817.7718.73-0.95424510.483-31989
127Jim Harbaugh14518.6819.68-1687700.469-92000
127Pete Beathard3718.0519.08-1.03181810.501972
128Sonny Jurgensen14921.5422.61-1.07697370.487-41974
129Mike Phipps7317.8219.04-1.22383320.53451980
130Brian Sipe11319.8921.15-1.26575600.50411983
131Ken O'Brien11220.1921.46-1.27506110.451-111993
131Quincy Carter3515.7117-1.29181700.51412004
131George Ratterman2025.2526.55-1.391010.475-11956
131A.J. Feeley1818.8920.22-1.3381000.444-22011
132Bert Jones9921.5622.91-1.35475200.475-51982
133Jay Cutler12122.7424.1-1.36625900.51232014
134Rodney Peete8919.4820.85-1.37464300.51732003
134Kellen Clemens2118.7620.19-1.4381300.381-52013
135Kerry Collins18719.6321.12-1.498410300.449-192011
135Scott Brunner3217.5619.06-1.5131900.406-61983
135Steve Walsh411718.54-1.54212000.51211996
136Joe Ferguson17518.7820.33-1.54809500.457-151989
137Byron Leftwich5117.3118.9-1.59242700.471-32012
138Richard Todd11220.121.69-1.59506110.451-111984
138Damon Huard2717.2218.81-1.59151200.55632008
138Danny Kanell2518.1219.72-1.6101410.42-42003
138Matt Leinart1821.1722.78-1.6181000.444-22011
138Kyle Boller4719.0220.64-1.62202700.426-72011
138Kent Graham3816.9218.61-1.68172100.447-42000
138Kevin Kolb2120.922.71-1.8191200.429-32012
139Jim Everett15820.1922.01-1.82669200.418-261997
139George Shaw2920.5922.41-1.83111620.414-51962
140Chris Chandler15519.7221.68-1.97698600.445-172004
141Bob Avellini511718.98-1.98232800.451-51984
142Tobin Rote11922.8724.87-1.99516440.445-131964
142Vince Evans3918.120.18-2.08142500.359-111995
143Jason Campbell7919.6621.77-2.11324700.405-152013
144Vinny Testaverde21919.521.62-2.119212610.422-342007
145Bob Berry5217.0419.17-2.13202930.413-91974
145Sammy Baugh2219.0521.23-2.18111100.501952
146Jake Plummer14219.7421.94-2.2717100.502006
146Gary Hogeboom3719.3821.59-2.22181900.486-11989
147Tom Flores6722.2824.63-2.34313240.493-11968
147Jack Concannon4516.8219.18-2.36202410.456-41974
147Todd Collins2217.5519.91-2.36111100.502010
148Lynn Dickey11319.722.1-2.4466430.42-181985
148John Friesz3818.7621.18-2.42132500.342-121998
149Neil Lomax10220.6923.12-2.43475320.471-61988
149Johnny Green1922.2124.68-2.4781100.421-31962
150Matt Cassel7220.8223.33-2.51333900.458-62014
150Heath Shuler2217.7320.27-2.5581400.364-61997
151Cotton Davidson5420.3522.94-2.59203310.38-131966
151Adrian Burk4120.122.83-2.73152330.402-81956
151Patrick Ramsey2418.4621.21-2.75101400.417-42005
151Trent Edwards3318.4221.21-2.79141900.424-52010
152Dan Pastorini12218.2721.07-2.8596300.484-41981
153Erik Kramer7019.6922.61-2.93323800.457-61999
153Dave Wilson3116.8419.77-2.94121900.387-71986
154Steve DeBerg14419.622.53-2.94548910.378-351998
154Kelly Holcomb2520.823.76-2.9681700.32-92007
154David Whitehurst3714.8917.95-3.05162010.446-41981
154Cliff Stoudt2120.123.29-3.1991200.429-31988
154Seneca Wallace2217.4120.77-3.3661600.273-102013
154Joe Reed191518.37-3.3791000.474-11979
154Rob Johnson3019.2722.7-3.43121800.4-62002
154Jim Finks4519.5823.04-3.47182700.4-91955
155Jon Kitna12520.8924.46-3.57507500.4-252010
155Mike Boryla1915.5319.11-3.5881100.421-31978
155Christian Ponder3623.527.08-3.58142110.403-72014
156Dave Brown6016.7220.3-3.58263400.433-82000
156Frank Reich2220.1423.73-3.5971500.318-81998
156Dick Wood3420.3223.97-3.65131920.412-61966
156Pete Liske2917.3421-3.66131510.466-21972
157Daunte Culpepper10421.4825.15-3.67436100.413-182009
157Paul McDonald2216.2319.91-3.6881400.364-61984
158Aaron Brooks9220.5324.23-3.7395300.424-142006
158Robert Griffin362326.83-3.83142200.389-82014
158Butch Songin2023.3527.2-3.8581110.425-31962
158Steve Pelluer3017.6321.53-3.992010.317-111989
159Chris Miller9419.4123.34-3.93355900.372-241999
159Josh McCown4918.9822.98-4173200.347-152014
159Zeke Bratkowski4718.5322.6-4.06163010.351-141971
160Ryan Fitzpatrick892024.1-4.1335510.376-222014
161Jim Zorn1062024.12-4.12446200.415-181987
161Charlie Trippi1614.3118.44-4.1351100.313-61952
161Mike Taliaferro3118.122.23-4.13112000.355-91970
161Al Woodall1913.7917.95-4.1651400.263-91973
161Shane Matthews2216.6820.86-4.18111100.502002
161Jake Locker2320.9125.13-4.2291400.391-52014
161Derek Anderson4518.5122.73-4.22202500.444-52014
162Rick Mirer6817.7421.99-4.25244400.353-202003
162Marty Domres3216.4420.72-4.28122000.375-81977
163Josh Freeman6019.7824.08-4.3243600.4-122013
164Norm Snead15819.5923.95-4.35529970.351-471976
165Marc Bulger9821.0825.59-4.51425600.429-142009
166Jack Trudeau5015.4420-4.56193100.38-121994
167Joey Harrington7617.2421.95-4.71265000.342-242007
167Craig Erickson3517.622.34-4.74142100.4-71996
167Billy Joe Tolliver4718.1922.94-4.74153200.319-171999
168Bobby Douglass5317.1921.96-4.77163610.311-201977
169Jeff Blake1002024.82-4.82396100.39-222003
169Don Trull1823.8328.72-4.8941220.278-81969
169Steve Spurrier3816.9221.84-4.92132410.355-111976
169Karl Sweetan1916.8421.79-4.9561030.395-41968
169Sam Bradford4917.5322.55-5.02183010.378-122013
169Ty Detmer2617.7722.81-5.04111500.423-42001
170Tim Couch5916.5921.69-5.1223700.373-152003
170Joe Pisarcik3014.820.17-5.3792100.3-121984
170Steve Dils2717.723.11-5.41101700.37-71988
170Hugh Millen2514.419.92-5.5271800.28-111994
170Chris Simms1714.7620.41-5.6571000.412-32009
170David Archer2317.6523.3-5.6591310.413-41987
170Brandon Weeden2118.2423.95-5.7151600.238-112014
171Lamar McHan7317.8223.73-5.9244720.342-231963
171Tim Tebow1619.8825.81-5.949700.56322011
171Jack Thompson2117.5723.52-5.9541700.19-131984
171Geno Smith2918.6224.59-5.97111800.379-72014
172Jeff George12717.5723.6-6.03478000.37-332001
173Eddie LeBaron8118.1724.31-6.14265230.34-261963
173Dick Shiner2918.7924.93-6.1472110.259-141973
174Mike Pagel5417.0423.24-6.2173610.324-191990
174Al Dorow4421.227.41-6.2192500.432-61962
174Billy Joe Hobert1717.0623.29-6.2441300.235-91999
174Terry Hanratty1815.7222.11-6.3961200.333-61976
174Jacky Lee2316.723.09-6.3971510.326-81969
174John Skelton1717.1223.65-6.538900.471-12012
174Colt McCoy2515.5222.28-6.7671800.28-112014
174Tim Rattay1818.525.28-6.7851300.278-82006
175Chad Henne5318.6225.45-6.83183500.34-172014
175Mike Glennon1819.9426.78-6.8351300.278-82014
175J.P. Losman3315.7922.7-6.91102300.303-132008
175King Hill3020.627.87-7.2772210.25-151968
175Ralph Guglielmi2616.6923.96-7.2771630.327-91963
176David Carr7916.2823.63-7.35235600.291-332007
177Frank Tripucka5020.0627.5-7.44173210.35-151963
177Charlie Frye2314.6122.22-7.6171600.304-92009
177Steve Tensi3419.4727.09-7.62102310.309-131970
177Chuck Long2114.922.67-7.7641700.19-131988
177Kelly Stouffer1612.0620.06-851100.313-61992
178Archie Manning13915.9124.21-8.293510130.263-661984
178Ryan Leaf211523.43-8.4341700.19-132001
178David Klingler2412.6321.42-8.7942000.167-161994
178Bruce Gradkowski2016.0525.05-961400.3-82010
178Jeff Komlo1614.1923.25-9.0621400.125-121981
178Randy Wright3215.0924.34-9.2572500.219-181988
178Blaine Gabbert2715.324.85-9.5652200.185-172013
178John Reaves1713.4123.65-10.2441300.235-91987
178JaMarcus Russell2514.4824.72-10.2471800.28-112009
178Chris Weinke2013.623.95-10.3521800.1-162007
178Dennis Shaw3715.4626.03-10.5782720.243-191972
178Kent Nix1816.527.17-10.6741400.222-101972
178Mickey Slaughter192131.74-10.7421520.158-131966
178Brady Quinn201525.85-10.8541600.2-122012
178Doug Pederson1710.5922.35-11.7631400.176-112000
178Timm Rosenbach2014.626.4-11.851500.25-101992
178Gary Huff289.5721.39-11.8272100.25-141977
178Derek Carr1615.8128.25-12.4431300.188-102014
178Randy Johnson4915.5528.45-12.9103810.214-281976
178Akili Smith1710.7624.76-1431400.176-112002

Again, I’m short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys.

{ 9 comments }

Please see yesterday’s post for the fine print. The table below shows the average points per game allowed in games started by each quarterback, minimum 15 games (but the ranks only count for quarterbacks with 50 or more starts).

RkQuarterbackGPAWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Otto Graham8314.42661610.801501955
1James Harris4415.2261800.59181978
2Roger Staubach13115.31963500.733611979
3Jim McMahon10315.59703300.68371994
4Terry Bradshaw17715.681215600.684651983
5Russell Wilson5615.73421400.75282014
5Bob Lee3215.84201200.62581977
6Pat Haden6016.05372210.625151981
6Dieter Brock1716.2912500.70671985
6Scott Hunter4316.65211930.52321977
7Bart Starr16716.681035860.635451971
7Don Heinrich3716.7221320.62291962
8Bob Griese16216.77986130.614371980
8Quincy Carter3517181700.51412004
9Earl Morrall10717.04673730.64301975
9Steve Bono4317.21281500.651131998
10Craig Morton15417.25866710.562191982
11Charlie Conerly9217.32583310.636251961
12Jay Fiedler6317.32382500.603132004
13Ron Jaworski15117.32777310.51341989
14Joe Montana18717.351335400.711791994
14Shaun King2717.52151200.55632004
15Trent Dilfer11917.52635600.52972007
16Joe Kapp5217.6262330.52931970
17Phil Simms16917.731016800.598331993
17Matt Moore2317.74111200.478-12011
17Gary Cuozzo4117.76212000.51211972
18Len Dawson16717.8996080.617391975
19Daryle Lamonica9717.89702160.753491973
20David Woodley5817.93372010.647171985
20David Whitehurst3717.95162010.446-41981
20Al Woodall1917.9551400.263-91973
21Troy Aikman18018.011057500.583302000
22Kordell Stewart8618.05503600.581142003
22Bobby Thomason4218.05192210.464-31957
22Steve Fuller4418.14202400.455-41986
22Anthony Wright2018.1581200.4-42005
22Tommy O'Connell2118.1911820.57131961
23Donovan McNabb17718.281076910.607382011
24Joe Flacco12718.34824500.646372014
24Virgil Carter3118.35161500.51611975
24Joe Reed1918.3791000.474-11979
25Joe Theismann13218.37834900.629341985
26Roman Gabriel15918.38866670.563201976
27Ben Roethlisberger17318.41165700.671592014
28Ken Stabler15818.421035410.655491983
28Charlie Trippi1618.4451100.313-61952
29Mark Rypien8518.48523300.612191995
30Doug Flutie6818.5383000.55982004
31Brad Johnson12518.5725300.576192008
32Milt Plum10418.52564260.567141967
33Johnny Unitas19418.531246640.649581973
33Steve Walsh4118.54212000.51211996
33Kent Graham3818.61172100.447-42000
34Mike Tomczak7818.67453300.577121999
35Doug Williams8818.73424510.483-31989
35Damon Huard2718.81151200.55632008
36Steve Young15718.841025500.65471999
37Tom Brady23618.861815500.7671262014
38Jay Schroeder10418.87644000.615241994
39Elvis Grbac7318.88413200.56292001
40Byron Leftwich5118.9242700.471-32012
41Bob Avellini5118.98232800.451-51984
41Don Strock231916700.69691988
41Jim Miller2819151300.53622002
42Mike Phipps7319.04383320.53451980
43Bill Munson6619.05273450.447-71975
43Scott Brunner3219.06131900.406-61983
43Pete Beathard3719.08181810.501972
43Jeff Kemp3019.1161310.5531991
43Mike Boryla1919.1181100.421-31978
44Neil O'Donnell10719.12584900.54292003
45Bob Berry5219.17202930.413-91974
46Jim Kelly17719.181106700.621431996
46Jack Concannon4519.18202410.456-41974
47Greg Landry9919.18445230.46-81984
47Jim Ninowski3119.19151510.501968
48Jack Kemp11119.21674130.617261969
48Rudy Bukich3819.21211430.59271966
49Ken Anderson17819.29938500.52281985
50Jeff Hostetler8819.31553300.625221997
51John Elway25219.431628910.645731998
52Billy Kilmer12119.48635710.52561978
52Steve Ramsey3119.52141700.452-31976
53Chad Pennington8719.53464100.52952010
54Drew Bledsoe19919.541019800.50832006
55Randall Cunningham14419.56855810.594272001
56Rich Gannon13819.57795900.572202004
56Matt Cavanaugh1919.6381100.421-31986
57Eric Hipple5819.64283000.483-21989
58Bubby Brister7719.66383900.494-11998
59Jim Harbaugh14519.68687700.469-92000
60Bobby Hebert10319.68564700.54491996
60Tarvaris Jackson3519.69171800.486-12011
61Steve McNair16319.69966700.589292007
61Johnny Lujack2019.713700.6561951
61Cody Carlson2019.711900.5521994
61Frankie Albert3219.72141710.453-31952
61Danny Kanell2519.72101410.42-42003
62Danny White10219.73673500.657321987
63Dave Krieg18419.731018300.549181996
64Gary Danielson6119.75283210.467-41988
65Brett Favre32219.7519912300.618762010
65Dave Wilson3119.77121900.387-71986
66Jake Delhomme10419.78614300.587182010
67Tony Banks7819.83354300.449-82003
68Brian Griese8319.86453800.54272008
69Steve Grogan13819.86756300.543121990
69Todd Collins2219.91111100.502010
69Paul McDonald2219.9181400.364-61984
69Hugh Millen2519.9271800.28-111994
70Alex Smith10819.94584910.54292014
71Jack Trudeau5020193100.38-121994
71Colin Kaepernick4520291600.644132014
72Mike Livingston7520.01314310.42-121979
73Kyle Orton8220.06424000.51222014
73Kelly Stouffer1620.0651100.313-61992
74Mark Brunell16120.08837800.51652009
75Steve Beuerlein10420.1485600.462-82003
76Mark Malone5520.13243100.436-71988
76Joe Pisarcik3020.1792100.3-121984
77Frank Ryan9020.18582930.661291968
77Vince Evans3920.18142500.359-111995
77Kellen Clemens2120.1981300.381-52013
77A.J. Feeley1820.2281000.444-22011
78Bobby Layne13920.24835240.612311962
78Heath Shuler2220.2781400.364-61997
79Dave Brown6020.3263400.433-82000
80Joe Ferguson17520.33809500.457-151989
81Rex Grossman5120.33272400.52932011
82Don Majkowski5720.33263010.465-41996
83Stan Humphries8720.4533400.609191997
84Jim Plunkett15420.41807400.51961986
84Chris Simms1720.4171000.412-32009
85Bernie Kosar11520.43565810.491-21995
86Vince Young5120.49312000.608112011
86Shaun Hill3420.5161800.471-22014
87Andy Dalton6820.51402710.596132014
88John Hadl16920.53827890.51241977
88Kyle Boller4720.64202700.426-72011
89Charlie Batch5520.71253000.455-52012
89Marty Domres3220.72122000.375-81977
90Dan Marino25820.7515510300.601521999
91Philip Rivers15320.76926100.601312014
91Todd Blackledge3020.77151500.501989
91Seneca Wallace2220.7761600.273-102013
92Steve Bartkowski13120.82607100.458-111986
92Brian Hoyer1720.8210700.58832014
93Rodney Peete8920.85464300.51732003
93Shane Matthews2220.86111100.502002
94Mark Sanchez7620.92413500.53962014
95Fran Tarkenton25020.9413011460.532161978
95Pat Ryan2120.9512900.57131989
96Aaron Rodgers11420.98763800.667382014
96Pete Liske2921131510.466-21972
97Wade Wilson7421.01383600.51421998
98Don Meredith8921.04493640.573131968
99Dan Pastorini12221.07596300.484-41981
100David Garrard7821.09403800.51322010
101Kerry Collins18721.128410300.449-192011
102Brian Sipe11321.15575600.50411983
102John Friesz3821.18132500.342-121998
103Ed Brown9921.19553950.581161964
103Patrick Ramsey2421.21101400.417-42005
103Trent Edwards3321.21141900.424-52010
103Sammy Baugh2221.23111100.501952
104Marc Wilson6121.25322900.52531990
105Tommy Kramer11421.32565800.491-21989
105Ryan Tannehill4821.35232500.479-22014
105Gary Huff2821.3972100.25-141977
105David Klingler2421.4242000.167-161994
106Warren Moon21321.4510510800.493-32000
107Ken O'Brien11221.46506110.451-111993
108Vince Ferragamo5921.46302900.50811985
109Bill Kenney7721.49344300.442-91988
110Jim Hart18221.49879050.492-31983
110John Roach1921.5371110.395-41964
111Peyton Manning28021.531909000.6791002014
111Steve Pelluer3021.5392010.317-111989
111Gary Hogeboom3721.59181900.486-11989
112Tony Eason5621.61312500.55461989
113Vinny Testaverde21921.629212610.422-342007
114Chris Chandler15521.68698600.445-172004
115Richard Todd11221.69506110.451-111984
116Tim Couch5921.69223700.373-152003
117Michael Vick11521.76615310.53582014
118Jason Campbell7921.77324700.405-152013
118Karl Sweetan1921.7961030.395-41968
119Gus Frerotte9521.8454910.479-42008
119Bob Waterfield2521.84151000.651952
119Steve Spurrier3821.84132410.355-111976
120Jake Plummer14221.94717100.502006
121Joey Harrington7621.95265000.342-242007
121Tommy Maddox3821.95162110.434-52005
122Bobby Douglass5321.96163610.311-201977
123Rick Mirer6821.99244400.353-202003
124Jim Everett15822.01669200.418-261997
125Billy Wade8622.05414320.488-21965
126Lynn Dickey11322.1466430.42-181985
127Tony Romo12922.1775200.597252014
127Terry Hanratty1822.1161200.333-61976
128Matt Ryan11522.13674800.583192014
129Jeff Garcia12222.16606200.492-22008
130Charley Johnson12422.19595780.50821975
131Matt Hasselbeck16322.2857800.52172012
132Y.A. Tittle13922.21785650.579221964
132Charlie Frye2322.2271600.304-92009
132Mike Taliaferro3122.23112000.355-91970
133Cam Newton6522.25313310.485-22014
134Boomer Esiason17822.25839500.466-121997
135Bill Nelsen7922.27423430.55181972
135Colt McCoy2522.2871800.28-112014
136Norm Van Brocklin10522.29633840.619251960
136Craig Erickson3522.34142100.4-71996
136Doug Pederson1722.3531400.176-112000
136George Shaw2922.41111620.414-51962
137Kurt Warner12822.46755300.586222009
138Eli Manning17822.48997900.556202014
139Steve DeBerg14422.53548910.378-351998
140John Brodie16422.55768080.488-41973
140Sam Bradford4922.55183010.378-122013
141Babe Parilli10422.59504770.51431967
141Zeke Bratkowski4722.6163010.351-141971
142Sonny Jurgensen14922.61697370.487-41974
143Erik Kramer7022.61323800.457-61999
143Chuck Long2122.6741700.19-131988
143J.P. Losman3322.7102300.303-132008
143Rob Johnson3022.7121800.4-62002
143Kevin Kolb2122.7191200.429-32012
143Derek Anderson4522.73202500.444-52014
144Drew Brees21222.761238900.58342014
144Matt Leinart1822.7881000.444-22011
144Matt Robinson2022.8101000.501980
144Ty Detmer2622.81111500.423-42001
144Adrian Burk4122.83152330.402-81956
145Carson Palmer14522.83707500.483-52014
146Scott Mitchell7322.89324100.438-92000
147Bert Jones9922.91475200.475-51982
147Billy Joe Tolliver4722.94153200.319-171999
148Cotton Davidson5422.94203310.38-131966
148Josh McCown4922.98173200.347-152014
149Dan Fouts17823.03898810.50311987
149Jim Finks4523.04182700.4-91955
149Jacky Lee2323.0971510.326-81969
150Joe Namath13223.1646440.501977
151George Blanda10723.1555110.51941968
151Steve Dils2723.11101700.37-71988
152Neil Lomax10223.12475320.471-61988
153Matt Schaub9223.24474500.51122013
154Mike Pagel5423.24173610.324-191990
154Jeff Komlo1623.2521400.125-121981
154Cliff Stoudt2123.2991200.429-31988
154Billy Joe Hobert1723.2941300.235-91999
154David Archer2323.391310.413-41987
155Matt Cassel7223.33333900.458-62014
156Chris Miller9423.34355900.372-241999
156Ryan Leaf2123.4341700.19-132001
156Jack Thompson2123.5241700.19-131984
157Andrew Luck5423.54361800.667182014
158Trent Green11523.58565900.487-32008
159Jeff George12723.6478000.37-332001
160David Carr7923.63235600.291-332007
160John Skelton1723.658900.471-12012
160John Reaves1723.6541300.235-91987
160Nick Foles2523.68151000.652014
161Lamar McHan7323.73244720.342-231963
161Frank Reich2223.7371500.318-81998
161Kelly Holcomb2523.7681700.32-92007
162Norm Snead15823.95529970.351-471976
162Chris Weinke2023.9521800.1-162007
162Brandon Weeden2123.9551600.238-112014
162Ralph Guglielmi2623.9671630.327-91963
162Dick Wood3423.97131920.412-61966
163Josh Freeman6024.08243600.4-122013
164Jay Cutler12124.1625900.51232014
165Ryan Fitzpatrick8924.1335510.376-222014
166Jim Zorn10624.12446200.415-181987
167Archie Manning13924.213510130.263-661984
168Aaron Brooks9224.23395300.424-142006
169Eddie LeBaron8124.31265230.34-261963
170Matthew Stafford7924.33354400.443-92014
170Randy Wright3224.3472500.219-181988
171Jon Kitna12524.46507500.4-252010
171Geno Smith2924.59111800.379-72014
172Tom Flores6724.63313240.493-11968
172Johnny Green1924.6881100.421-31962
172JaMarcus Russell2524.7271800.28-112009
172Akili Smith1724.7631400.176-112002
173Jeff Blake10024.82396100.39-222003
173Blaine Gabbert2724.8552200.185-172013
174Tobin Rote11924.87516440.445-131964
174Dick Shiner2924.9372110.259-141973
174Bruce Gradkowski2025.0561400.3-82010
174Jake Locker2325.1391400.391-52014
175Daunte Culpepper10425.15436100.413-182009
175Tim Rattay1825.2851300.278-82006
176Chad Henne5325.45183500.34-172014
177Marc Bulger9825.59425600.429-142009
177Tim Tebow1625.819700.56322011
177Brady Quinn2025.8541600.2-122012
177Dennis Shaw3726.0382720.243-191972
177Timm Rosenbach2026.451500.25-101992
177George Ratterman2026.5591010.475-11956
177Mike Glennon1826.7851300.278-82014
177Robert Griffin3626.83142200.389-82014
177Christian Ponder3627.08142110.403-72014
177Steve Tensi3427.09102310.309-131970
177Kent Nix1827.1741400.222-101972
177Butch Songin2027.281110.425-31962
177Al Dorow4427.41192500.432-61962
178Frank Tripucka5027.5173210.35-151963
178King Hill3027.8772210.25-151968
178Derek Carr1628.2531300.188-102014
178Randy Johnson4928.45103810.214-281976
178Don Trull1828.7241220.278-81969
178Mickey Slaughter1931.7421520.158-131966

Again, I will leave the commentary to you guys.

{ 5 comments }

Aaron Rodgers has started 114 games (including playoffs) in his career. In those games, the Packers have averaged 28.5 points per game (including non-offensive scores), the highest average for any quarterback in his team’s starts in NFL history.

The table below shows the PPG average in each quarterback’s starts for all quarterbacks with at least 15 starts. However, since 15 is a pretty low cut-off, I only ranked players with 50 starts; if a player had fewer than 50 starts, I just gave him the same rank as the player above him in the table.

Here’s how to read the table below. Rodgers has started 114 games, his team has scored 28.5 points per game during those games, and he has produced a 76-38-0 record. That translates to a 0.667 winning percentage, and Rodgers is 38 games over 0.500.

RkQuarterbackGPFWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Aaron Rodgers11428.5763800.667382014
1Bob Waterfield2527.92151000.651952
2Tom Brady23627.861815500.7671262014
2Nick Foles2527151000.652014
3Peyton Manning28026.921909000.6791002014
4Otto Graham8326.78661610.801501955
5Norm Van Brocklin10526.74633840.619251960
6Kurt Warner12826.66755300.586222009
7Drew Brees21226.661238900.58342014
8Daryle Lamonica9726.62702160.753491973
9Don Meredith8926.61493640.573131968
10Russell Wilson5625.84421400.75282014
11Steve Young15725.761025500.65471999
12Philip Rivers15325.63926100.601312014
13Tony Romo12925.28775200.597252014
13George Ratterman2025.2591010.475-11956
14George Blanda10725.23555110.51941968
15Danny White10225.23673500.657321987
16Trent Green11525.07565900.487-32008
17Frank Ryan9024.84582930.661291968
18Andrew Luck5424.8361800.667182014
19Joe Montana18724.631335400.711791994
19Don Strock2324.5216700.69691988
20Y.A. Tittle13924.39785650.579221964
21Johnny Unitas19424.361246640.649581973
22Matt Ryan11524.3674800.583192014
23Rich Gannon13824.2795900.572202004
24Brett Favre32224.0719912300.618762010
24Don Trull1823.8341220.278-81969
25Roger Staubach13123.82963500.733611979
25Pat Ryan2123.8112900.57131989
26Dan Fouts17823.77898810.50311987
27Bobby Layne13923.73835240.612311962
28Joe Flacco12723.68824500.646372014
29Matt Schaub9223.65474500.51122013
30Matthew Stafford7923.63354400.443-92014
31Eli Manning17823.62997900.556202014
31Colin Kaepernick4523.62291600.644132014
32Ben Roethlisberger17323.611165700.671592014
33Len Dawson16723.51996080.617391975
33Christian Ponder3623.5142110.403-72014
34Mark Rypien8523.38523300.612191995
34Butch Songin2023.3581110.425-31962
35Jack Kemp11123.3674130.617261969
36John Elway25223.271628910.645731998
37Jim Kelly17723.21106700.621431996
38Andy Dalton6823.13402710.596132014
39Randall Cunningham14423.06855810.594272001
40Dan Marino25823.0415510300.601521999
40Rudy Bukich3823211430.59271966
40Robert Griffin3623142200.389-82014
41Bart Starr16722.991035860.635451971
42Donovan McNabb17722.921076910.607382011
43Tobin Rote11922.87516440.445-131964
44Terry Bradshaw17722.851215600.684651983
45Cam Newton6522.82313310.485-22014
46Bill Nelsen7922.81423430.55181972
47Jay Cutler12122.74625900.51232014
47Johnny Lujack2022.5513700.6561951
48Jeff Garcia12222.55606200.492-22008
49Ken Stabler15822.511035410.655491983
50Billy Wade8622.47414320.488-21965
51Joe Namath13222.42646440.501977
52Elvis Grbac7322.41413200.56292001
53Scott Mitchell7322.41324100.438-92000
53Matt Robinson2022.4101000.501980
54Steve Grogan13822.38756300.543121990
54Tarvaris Jackson3522.29171800.486-12011
55Tom Flores6722.28313240.493-11968
56Mark Sanchez7622.26413500.53962014
57Michael Vick11522.23615310.53582014
58Charley Johnson12422.23595780.50821975
58Johnny Green1922.2181100.421-31962
59Babe Parilli10422.19504770.51431967
60Matt Hasselbeck16322.17857800.52172012
60Shaun Hill3422.06161800.471-22014
60John Roach1922.0571110.395-41964
61Brian Griese8322.04453800.54272008
62Carson Palmer14522.01707500.483-52014
62Brian Hoyer172210700.58832014
63Ed Brown9921.97553950.581161964
64John Hadl16921.96827890.51241977
65Joe Theismann13221.96834900.629341985
66Troy Aikman18021.941057500.583302000
67Rex Grossman5121.9272400.52932011
68Warren Moon21321.910510800.493-32000
69Boomer Esiason17821.87839500.466-121997
70Charlie Conerly9221.78583310.636251961
71Bill Kenney7721.75344300.442-91988
72Jake Delhomme10421.73614300.587182010
73Steve McNair16321.72966700.589292007
74Milt Plum10421.7564260.567141967
75David Woodley5821.67372010.647171985
76David Garrard7821.65403800.51322010
77John Brodie16421.63768080.488-41973
78Stan Humphries8721.62533400.609191997
79Mark Brunell16121.61837800.51652009
80Vince Young5121.59312000.608112011
81Vince Ferragamo5921.58302900.50811985
82Bert Jones9921.56475200.475-51982
83Wade Wilson7421.55383600.51421998
84Sonny Jurgensen14921.54697370.487-41974
85Daunte Culpepper10421.48436100.413-182009
86Fran Tarkenton25021.413011460.532161978
87Brad Johnson12521.38725300.576192008
88Gus Frerotte9521.37454910.479-42008
89Dave Krieg18421.341018300.549181996
90Ken Anderson17821.31938500.52281985
91Roman Gabriel15921.3866670.563201976
91Tommy Maddox3821.29162110.434-52005
92Bobby Hebert10321.26564700.54491996
93Alex Smith10821.21584910.54292014
93Al Dorow4421.2192500.432-61962
93Matt Leinart1821.1781000.444-22011
94Bob Griese16221.15986130.614371980
95Marc Bulger9821.08425600.429-142009
96Jeff Hostetler8821.06553300.625221997
97Jim Hart18221.04879050.492-31983
97Mickey Slaughter192121520.158-131966
98Earl Morrall10720.97673730.64301975
98Jake Locker2320.9191400.391-52014
98Kevin Kolb2120.991200.429-32012
98Jeff Kemp3020.9161310.5531991
99Jon Kitna12520.89507500.4-252010
100Bernie Kosar11520.84565810.491-21995
101Matt Cassel7220.82333900.458-62014
101Steve Bono4320.81281500.651131998
101Kelly Holcomb2520.881700.32-92007
101Matt Cavanaugh1920.7981100.421-31986
102Tony Eason5620.79312500.55461989
103Jim McMahon10320.75703300.68371994
104Drew Bledsoe19920.741019800.50832006
105Doug Flutie6820.74383000.55982004
106Kyle Orton8220.73424000.51222014
107Jay Fiedler6320.73382500.603132004
107Don Heinrich3720.73221320.62291962
108Mike Tomczak7820.72453300.577121999
109Charlie Batch5520.69253000.455-52012
109Ryan Tannehill4820.69232500.479-22014
110Neil Lomax10220.69475320.471-61988
111Chad Pennington8720.64464100.52952010
111King Hill3020.672210.25-151968
111George Shaw2920.59111620.414-51962
112Tommy Kramer11420.55565800.491-21989
113Aaron Brooks9220.53395300.424-142006
114Gary Danielson6120.48283210.467-41988
115Jim Plunkett15420.41807400.51961986
116Marc Wilson6120.39322900.52531990
117Steve Bartkowski13120.38607100.458-111986
117Bobby Thomason4220.36192210.464-31957
117Virgil Carter3120.35161500.51611975
118Cotton Davidson5420.35203310.38-131966
118Dick Wood3420.32131920.412-61966
119Phil Simms16920.31016800.598331993
120Pat Haden6020.27372210.625151981
121Steve Beuerlein10420.25485600.462-82003
122Jim Everett15820.19669200.418-261997
123Ken O'Brien11220.19506110.451-111993
124Kordell Stewart8620.17503600.581142003
125Billy Kilmer12120.17635710.52561978
126Jay Schroeder10420.16644000.615241994
126Jim Miller2820.14151300.53622002
126Frank Reich2220.1471500.318-81998
127Mark Malone5520.11243100.436-71988
128Richard Todd11220.1506110.451-111984
128Adrian Burk4120.1152330.402-81956
128Cliff Stoudt2120.191200.429-31988
129Frank Tripucka5020.06173210.35-151963
129Dieter Brock1720.0612500.70671985
130Eric Hipple5820.05283000.483-21989
130Jim Ninowski3120.03151510.501968
131Jim Zorn10620446200.415-181987
132Jeff Blake10020396100.39-222003
133Ryan Fitzpatrick8920335510.376-222014
133Tommy O'Connell212011820.57131961
133Mike Glennon1819.9451300.278-82014
134Brian Sipe11319.89575600.50411983
134Tim Tebow1619.889700.56322011
135Neil O'Donnell10719.87584900.54292003
135Todd Blackledge3019.87151500.501989
136Josh Freeman6019.78243600.4-122013
137Jake Plummer14219.74717100.502006
138Chris Chandler15519.72698600.445-172004
138Cody Carlson2019.711900.5521994
139Lynn Dickey11319.7466430.42-181985
140Erik Kramer7019.69323800.457-61999
141Jason Campbell7919.66324700.405-152013
142Kerry Collins18719.638410300.449-192011
143Steve DeBerg14419.6548910.378-351998
144Norm Snead15819.59529970.351-471976
144Jim Finks4519.58182700.4-91955
144Shaun King2719.52151200.55632004
145Vinny Testaverde21919.59212610.422-342007
146Rodney Peete8919.48464300.51732003
146Steve Tensi3419.47102310.309-131970
147Mike Livingston7519.45314310.42-121979
148Don Majkowski5719.44263010.465-41996
149Chris Miller9419.41355900.372-241999
149Steve Ramsey3119.39141700.452-31976
149Gary Hogeboom3719.38181900.486-11989
150Bubby Brister7719.35383900.494-11998
150Rob Johnson3019.27121800.4-62002
151Tony Banks7819.18354300.449-82003
152Joe Kapp5219.15262330.52931970
153Craig Morton15419.14866710.562191982
153Frankie Albert3219.09141710.453-31952
153James Harris4419.07261800.59181978
154Ron Jaworski15119.06777310.51341989
154Sammy Baugh2219.05111100.501952
154Kyle Boller4719.02202700.426-72011
154Josh McCown4918.98173200.347-152014
155Greg Landry9918.91445230.46-81984
155A.J. Feeley1818.8981000.444-22011
155Gary Cuozzo4118.85212000.51211972
155Dick Shiner2918.7972110.259-141973
156Joe Ferguson17518.78809500.457-151989
156John Friesz3818.76132500.342-121998
156Kellen Clemens2118.7681300.381-52013
157Bill Munson6618.68273450.447-71975
158Jim Harbaugh14518.68687700.469-92000
158Matt Moore2318.65111200.478-12011
159Chad Henne5318.62183500.34-172014
159Geno Smith2918.62111800.379-72014
159Zeke Bratkowski4718.53163010.351-141971
159Derek Anderson4518.51202500.444-52014
159Tim Rattay1818.551300.278-82006
159Patrick Ramsey2418.46101400.417-42005
159Trent Edwards3318.42141900.424-52010
160Dan Pastorini12218.27596300.484-41981
160Brandon Weeden2118.2451600.238-112014
160Billy Joe Tolliver4718.19153200.319-171999
161Eddie LeBaron8118.17265230.34-261963
161Danny Kanell2518.12101410.42-42003
161Vince Evans3918.1142500.359-111995
161Mike Taliaferro3118.1112000.355-91970
161Pete Beathard3718.05181810.501972
161Bob Lee3217.97201200.62581977
162Trent Dilfer11917.82635600.52972007
163Mike Phipps7317.82383320.53451980
164Lamar McHan7317.82244720.342-231963
165Doug Williams8817.77424510.483-31989
165Ty Detmer2617.77111500.423-42001
166Rick Mirer6817.74244400.353-202003
166Heath Shuler2217.7381400.364-61997
166Steve Dils2717.7101700.37-71988
166David Archer2317.6591310.413-41987
166Anthony Wright2017.6581200.4-42005
166Steve Pelluer3017.6392010.317-111989
166Craig Erickson3517.6142100.4-71996
166Jack Thompson2117.5741700.19-131984
167Jeff George12717.57478000.37-332001
167Scott Brunner3217.56131900.406-61983
167Todd Collins2217.55111100.502010
167Sam Bradford4917.53183010.378-122013
167Steve Fuller4417.41202400.455-41986
167Seneca Wallace2217.4161600.273-102013
167Pete Liske2917.34131510.466-21972
168Byron Leftwich5117.31242700.471-32012
169Joey Harrington7617.24265000.342-242007
169Damon Huard2717.22151200.55632008
170Bobby Douglass5317.19163610.311-201977
170John Skelton1717.128900.471-12012
170Billy Joe Hobert1717.0641300.235-91999
171Bob Berry5217.04202930.413-91974
172Mike Pagel5417.04173610.324-191990
173Bob Avellini5117232800.451-51984
173Steve Walsh4117212000.51211996
173Kent Graham3816.92172100.447-42000
173Steve Spurrier3816.92132410.355-111976
173Karl Sweetan1916.8461030.395-41968
173Dave Wilson3116.84121900.387-71986
173Jack Concannon4516.82202410.456-41974
173Scott Hunter4316.81211930.52321977
174Dave Brown6016.72263400.433-82000
174Jacky Lee2316.771510.326-81969
174Ralph Guglielmi2616.6971630.327-91963
174Shane Matthews2216.68111100.502002
175Tim Couch5916.59223700.373-152003
175Kent Nix1816.541400.222-101972
175Marty Domres3216.44122000.375-81977
176David Carr7916.28235600.291-332007
176Paul McDonald2216.2381400.364-61984
176Bruce Gradkowski2016.0561400.3-82010
177Archie Manning13915.913510130.263-661984
177Derek Carr1615.8131300.188-102014
177J.P. Losman3315.79102300.303-132008
177Terry Hanratty1815.7261200.333-61976
177Quincy Carter3515.71181700.51412004
177Randy Johnson4915.55103810.214-281976
177Mike Boryla1915.5381100.421-31978
177Colt McCoy2515.5271800.28-112014
177Dennis Shaw3715.4682720.243-191972
178Jack Trudeau5015.44193100.38-121994
178Blaine Gabbert2715.352200.185-172013
178Randy Wright3215.0972500.219-181988
178Ryan Leaf211541700.19-132001
178Brady Quinn201541600.2-122012
178Joe Reed191591000.474-11979
178Chuck Long2114.941700.19-131988
178David Whitehurst3714.89162010.446-41981
178Joe Pisarcik3014.892100.3-121984
178Chris Simms1714.7671000.412-32009
178Charlie Frye2314.6171600.304-92009
178Timm Rosenbach2014.651500.25-101992
178JaMarcus Russell2514.4871800.28-112009
178Hugh Millen2514.471800.28-111994
178Charlie Trippi1614.3151100.313-61952
178Jeff Komlo1614.1921400.125-121981
178Al Woodall1913.7951400.263-91973
178Chris Weinke2013.621800.1-162007
178John Reaves1713.4141300.235-91987
178David Klingler2412.6342000.167-161994
178Kelly Stouffer1612.0651100.313-61992
178Akili Smith1710.7631400.176-112002
178Doug Pederson1710.5931400.176-112000
178Gary Huff289.5772100.25-141977

I’m again short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys, and all the Rams fans out there.

{ 6 comments }

On Tuesday, I looked at quarterback records when their team allows 21 or more points.  Today, a look at records when scoring 21+ points.  I’m short on time, so today’s post will just be a quick data dump.  I leave the comments up to you!

Here’s how to read the table below. Tom Brady has played in 169 games (including playoffs) where his team has scored 21+ points, and he’s posted a 155-14-0 record in those games (translating to a 0.917 winning percentage). On average, teams win about 75% of their games when they score 21 or more points; as a result, we would have expected Brady to win 126.75 games, all else being equal. Since he’s won 155, this means he has won 28.25 more games than expected, the most in NFL history. In general, one might translate this to something like “this quarterback had a good defense.” Among active quarterbacks, Colin Kaepernick, Brady, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Jay Cutler have the best five winning percentages when scoring 21+ points. [click to continue…]

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Back in November, Cian Fahey tweeted me a simple question: “What is Alex Smith’s record in games where his D gives up 21 or more points?”

I made a note to run the numbers in the off-season, and guess what? It’s the off-season. Smith now holds a career record of 7-38-1 (including a 1-1 mark in the postseason) when his team1 allows 21 or more points. That’s really bad, as it turns out. In fact, among quarterbacks who started such a game last year, only Ryan Fitzpatrick (5-43-0) has a worse career record. [click to continue…]

  1. Yes, that is not the same thing as his defense. []
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In Between Pete Metzelaars and Scott Chandler

Chandler tries out for the role of Ivan Drago

Chandler tries out for the role of Ivan Drago

The early 1990s were a simpler time. That’s doubly true when it comes to passing statistics, and triply true for tight ends. In week 2, the Bills and 49ers played a famous game in which neither team punted. In week 4 of the 2014 season, the Bears and Packers played just the second game in NFL history with no punts. A streak of 22 years and 2 weeks is pretty long, but that’s not even the longest streak to come out of that Buffalo/San Francisco game.

The Bills defeated the 49ers in no small part thanks to Pete Metzelaars, who caught four passes for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. And until last Sunday, that was the last time a Buffalo Bills tight end gained 100 yards in a game. In 1993, Metzelaars had a 98-yard game; Lonnie Johnson had an 86-yard game two years later, and gained 90 yards in a 1996 game. Jay Riemersma had three 80+ yard games for the Bills, but that was about it. For over 22 years, no Buffalo Bills tight end hit the hundred yard mark until Scott Chandler caught 6 passes for 105 yards against New England.

In between Metzelaars and Chandler, there were 289 games where a tight end gained at least 100 receiving yards in a game. Unsurprisingly, the Patriots lead the way with 29 of those games, with Rob Gronkowski and Ben Coates responsible for 22 such performances. The table below shows — for each franchise — the number of tight ends who gained 100 receiving yards between week 3 of the ’92 season and week 5 of this year.  I have also included (in parentheses) the number of 100-yard games recorded by each tight end for that franchise: [click to continue…]

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The Eagles Are 3-0 But In Unusual Fashion

Why are we surprised that the Eagles are winning ugly?

Why are we surprised that the Eagles are winning ugly?

Last week, Neil Paine wrote that while the Eagles were 2-0, it was not all sunshine and rainbows in Philadelphia. The Eagles posted Game Scripts of -7.1 against Jacksonville and -4.8 against Indianapolis; based on Neil’s research, the Eagles had the worst Game Scripts of any team to start 0-2 since at least 1978.

Against Washington in week 3, the Eagles fell behind 17-7 before coming from behind and again emerging victorious. As a result — and after trailing the Jags 17-0 and the Colts 20-6 — Philadelphia became the first team since at least 1940 to start a season 3-0 despite trailing by at least 10 points in each game.

In fact, only three teams had ever overcome a deficit of a touchdown or greater in each of their first three games: the 2000 Rams, the 2000 Jets, and the 1960 Giants. Those teams finished the season 10-6, 9-7, and 6-4-2 respectively, which means they went just 16-17-2 the rest of the season after starting 9-0.

In general, teams that have started 3-0 despite constantly falling behind have not been as successful over the rest of the season as other 3-0 teams. In fact, if you add up the worst margin for each 3-0 team in each game, 25 teams have trailed by an “aggregate” of 21+ points in those three games. On average, those teams won just 53.5% of the remainder of their games. [click to continue…]

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Unstable Divisions

The AFC East was a very stable division over the past two years. The Patriots won 12 games in 2012 and 12 more in 2013. The Bills, with six wins in 2013, also repeated their 2012 win total. Miami won 7 games in 2012, and then 8 last year. And the Jets followed up a 6-10 season in 2012 with an 8-8 season last year. That’s about as stable as a division can get. The four teams saw their win totals move by an aggregate of just three wins, making the 2012-2013 AFC East the most stable division since realignment.

On the other end of the spectrum: the NFC South. The Falcons dropped from 13 wins in 2012 to just four last year. The Panthers jumped from 7 wins in 2012 to 12 last year, and it didn’t even take Bill Parcells to do it. New Orleans also won seven games in 2012, but jumped to 12 wins in 2013. The team that saw the least movement in the NFC South last year was Tampa Bay, but the Bucs still fell from 7 wins to 4 wins, matching the total movement by all AFC East teams. As a group, NFC South teams had a change of 21 wins from 2012 to 2013, the most of any division since realignment.

That’s hardly new for the NFC South, or for that matter, the AFC East. Since realignment, the NFC South has easily been the league’s most unstable division: the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, and Panthers have seen their win totals fluctuate by an average total of 18.8 wins per year, beginning with the 2002-2003 seasons. The AFC East has been incredibly stable: no team has ever finished with more wins than New England, while the Bills have finished last or tied for last eight times since realignment. As a result, the average movement among AFC East teams — in the aggregate — has been just 6.3 wins.

RkDivisionChange in Wins/YrChange # Wins/Tm Yr
1NFC South15.73.9
2NFC North13.33.3
3AFC West11.93.3
4AFC North11.93.0
5AFC South11.72.9
6NFC East11.32.8
7NFC West10.82.7
8AFC East10.82.7

[click to continue…]

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Great Offenses and Missing the Playoffs

A common sight on any fall Sunday in the early '00s.

A common sight on any fall Sunday in the early '00s.

From 2002 to 2005, Peyton Manning was the best quarterback in the NFL, at least statistically, by a wide margin. But the #2 quarterback in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt was Trent Green, and there was a wide gap between Green and all other quarterbacks not named Manning.  Over that same period, Tony Gonzalez led all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. And the Chiefs rushed for 34 more touchdowns than any other team, in addition to ranking third in rushing yards and fourth in yards per carry.

Kansas City ranked 4th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt in 2002, 1st in 2003, 3rd in 2004, and 2nd in 2005.  In terms of Adjusted Yards per Carry, the Chiefs were 2nd in 2002, 3rd in 2003, 1st in 2004, and 3rd in 2005. That’s an incredible streak of not just dominance, but balanced dominance. And Kansas City missed the playoffs in three of those four years! (pours one out for Jason Lisk).

On Monday, we looked at some great defenses that missed the playoffs. Today, a look at some of the best offenses to stay home for the winter. And in the last 15 years, the 2002 Chiefs, 2004 Chiefs, and 2005 Chiefs are the only teams to rank in the top five in both ANY/A and AYPC and miss the playoffs.

What other teams since the merger met those criteria? [click to continue…]

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Great Defenses and Missing the Playoffs

Lewis finds out his quarterback is Kyle Boller

Lewis finds out his quarterback is Kyle Boller.

Ten years ago, the teams with three of the four best defenses in football missed the playoffs. The Buffalo Bills ranked 1st in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt allowed and 2nd in Adjusted Yards per Carry allowed. That year, Sam Adams, Takeo Spikes, Terrence McGee, and Nate Clements made the Pro Bowl, while Aaron Schobel had 8 sacks and London Fletcher was London Fletcher but younger. The team ranked 1st in DVOA by a good margin, but finished 9-7, narrowly missing the playoffs.

That year, Baltimore ranked 4th in ANY/A allowed, 3rd in AYPC allowed, and 2nd in DVOA. The Ravens weren’t quite as good on defense as the ’00 or ’06 iterations, but still had Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, Adalius Thomas, Chris McAlister, and Ed Reed (not to mention a 37-year-old Deion Sanders). Of course, this was the Ravens team that was one of the most one-sided team in NFL history. Baltimore also finished 9-7 in a year where six AFC teams won double-digit games.

Over in the NFC, Washington’s defense ranked 1st in Adjusted YPC and 3rd in ANY/A in Joe Gibbs’ first season back in D.C. Marcus Washington was the team’s only Pro Bowler, but the defense featured a rookie Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark, Shawn Springs, Antonio Pierce, and Cornelius Griffin. Despite ranking 4th in defensive DVOA, the team won just six games.

So why today are we looking at these three teams, nearly ten years later? It’s not to remind you that Drew Bledsoe, Kyle Boller, and Mark Brunell failed to guide those teams to the playoffs. As it turns out, these are the last three teams to finish in the top five in both ANY/A allowed and AYPC allowed and still miss the playoffs. In fact, since 1970, just nine other teams have managed to pull off that feat.

  • In 2002, Miami ranked 5th in both ANY/A and AYPC allowed, while the Panthers ranked 4th in both categories. Carolina was a year away from a Super Bowl appearance, while the Dolphins were nearing the end of their Jason TaylorZach ThomasSam Madison run.
  • In 1999, a year before The Year, the Ravens ranked 2nd in both metrics but finished just 8-8.
  • You know all about the 1991 Eagles, so of course they are on this list.
  • The 1987 Giants, a year after winning the Super Bowl, still produced a Super Bowl caliber defense behind Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Pepper Johnson, and Harry Carson, but the team’s offensive line (3rd most sacks allowed, 2nd worst YPC average) torpedoed the offense.
  • In 1978, a year before nearly carrying the team to the Super Bowl, Lee Roy Selmon and Dave Pear helped Tampa Bay rank 1st in AYPC allowed and 3rd in ANY/A allowed. But a miserable offense led to a losing record in the franchise’s third season.
  • The 1974 Packers ranked 5th in both categories. The defense sent Ted Hendricks, Willie Buchanon, and Ken Ellis to the Pro Bowl, but if you think this is just a thinly-veiled reason to bring up John Hadl, you are a regular reader of this blog.

Since 2004, six teams have ranked 1st or 2nd in AYPC allowed but missed the playoffs. Two of those seasons occurred last year, with the Jets and Cardinals, respectively. The 2006 and 2007 Vikings also join that list, along with the 2007 Ravens (a year after a magnificent season) and the 2010 49ers (a year before a magnificent season).

Having a dominant pass defense is even more likely to send a team to the playoffs. Since 2004, only one team — the 2012 Bears — ranked 1st in ANY/A allowed but missed the playoffs. The 2009 Bills are the only team to rank 2nd in ANY/A allowed and miss the playoffs, while the 2013 Bills, 2010 Chargers, and ’05 Jets are the only teams since ’04 to rank 3rd in ANY/A allowed and still fail to make it to January.

Too Long; Didn’t Read

  • The 2004 season was kind of crazy.
  • Since 2002, 24 teams have ranked in the top five in both pass defense and rush defense; five of those teams missed the playoffs, although the last 16 teams pull off this feat have made the postseason.
  • Of the 36 teams to rank in the top 3 in Adjusted Yards per Carry allowed since 2002, only 19 of those teams made the playoffs. Although it’s worth noting that eight of the 17 teams to miss the playoffs out of this group ranked 20th or worse in ANY/A allowed.
  • 28 of the 36 teams to rank in the top 3 in ANY/A allowed made the playoffs.
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Lynch leads the league in Skittles eaten over average

Lynch leads the league in Skittles eaten over average.

Over the last three years, no player has recorded more carries than Marshawn Lynch. But while Lynch’s 901 carries may lead the league, that’s a pretty low number, at least in modern history. The 2011-2013 seasons very nearly became the first three-year period where no running back had 900 carries since 1989 to 1991, which was essentially the post-Eric Dickerson/pre-stud running back era. This jives with what we’ve seen on a broader level, in that the NFL is both veering away from rushing and towards running back committees, two factors which have combined to torpedo running back value.

The table below shows the leader in rush attempts for every three year period beginning with the AFL-NFL merger. Here’s how to lead the Lynch line: From 2011 to 2013, Lynch, who was 27 in 2013, led the NFL in carries. Over that period, he rushed 901 times for 4,051 yards, a 4.50 yards per carry average. [click to continue…]

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The Evolution of Quarterbacks

Get your roll on 'Pepp

Get your roll on 'Pepp.

With the NFL draft approaching, you’ll hear a lot of statements about how the quarterback position is changing. Mobile quarterbacks are now “in”, which is a good thing for Johnny Manziel. A 6’4 frame is no longer required, which is a good thing for… well, Manziel, and negates some of the value of a player like Blake Bortles or Tom Savage. And, heck, do you even need to get a quarterback in the first round? If Teddy Bridgewater falls to the second round, how much of an outlier does that make him? What about say, Aaron Murray, who is both short and expected to be a late round pick?

I can’t tell you how any of the prospects in this year’s draft will turn out, but I can walk you through how the quarterback position has changed over the course of NFL history.

Methodology

For all three variables, I will be using the same methodology to measure “league average” in each season.  Each player in each year gets credit for his percentage of league-wide pass attempts in the season multiplied by his value in each variable.  For example, when calculating the 2013 league average, Peyton Manning’s [rushing numbers, height, draft position] was worth 3.6% of the league average, while in 1958, Johnny Unitas’s [rushing, height, draft position] was worth 6.7% of the league average. This gives us a weighted average for each variable, weighted by the number of pass attempts by that quarterback. [click to continue…]

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Chris Berman has already copyrighted Teddy 'Bridge over troubled' Water.

Chris Berman has already copyrighted Teddy 'Bridge over troubled' Water.

Sometimes, it’s hard to believe that it’s 2014. With draft season now in full gear, I wanted to take a few minutes and look at the stats of the top college quarterbacks from last year. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done. I couldn’t find a site that presented a full list of all college quarterback stats, including sacks, which is, of course, insane.

College football records sacks as rushing plays for the offense; as a result, knowing how many sacks Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater took last year is not that easy to find. So here’s what I did:

1) Using team game log data, I found the number of sacks for each defense in each game.

2) Next, I recorded the percentage of team pass attempts recorded by each quarterback for his offense in each game (usually close to 100%).

3) I synched up these two sets of data, and multiplied each quarterback’s percentage of team pass attempts by the number of sacks by his opponent’s defense in that game.

That provided me with some useful estimated sack data. From there, I calculated each quarterback’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average, which is simply (Gross_passing_yards + 20*PassTDs – 45*INTs – Estimated_sack_yards_lost) / (Pass_attempts + Estimated_sacks). I did this for the 140 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts in the FBS (sorry, Jimmy Garoppolo fans) in 2013.

Since the number of pass attempts vary wildly at the college level, I also calculated a Value Over Average statistic. The 140 quarterbacks had an average ANY/A of 6.44, so the Value metric (which is what the table is sorted by) is simply (ANY/A – 6.44) * (Pass_attempts + Estimated_sacks). Here’s how to read Bridegwater’s line, the Louisville quarterback who many believe will be the first quarterback selected in the draft.

Bridgewater provided the 5th most passing value by this formula, completing 303 of 427 passes for 3,970 yards with 31 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He took 25.5 sacks and lost 185 yards, and had a sack rate of 6% (if I included the percent sign, the table would not sort correctly). Bridgewater also averaged 13.1 yards per completion and had a 9.34 ANY/A average, which combined with his number of dropbacks, means he added 1,310 adjusted net yards of value over average. By default, the table below only shows the top 25, but you can sort and/or search to find each of the 140 quarterbacks (and you can change the number of quarterbacks displayed via the dropdown box to the left). [click to continue…]

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2013 Team NY/A and ANY/A Differential Data

Just a quick data dump here for those inquiring minds. Here are the leaders in NY/A differential, which is simply Net Yards per Attempt (which incorporates sack data) for each team minus the Net Yards per Attempt allowed by that team. Seattle ranks #1 in NY/A differential, as Russell Wilson‘s offense has averaged 6.97 NY/A (which ranks 6th) and the defense has allowed just 4.85 NY/A (which ranks first), giving them a +2.13 NY/A differential.

RkTmNY/ANY/A RkNY/A ANY/A A RkNY/A Diff
1Seattle Seahawks6.9764.8512.13
2Cincinnati Bengals6.7295.0921.63
3Denver Broncos7.8316.22171.61
4New Orleans Saints7.1545.5871.56
5Arizona Cardinals6.51115.5560.96
6Philadelphia Eagles7.4236.56220.86
7San Francisco 49ers6.53105.6890.86
8Pittsburgh Steelers6.39125.88100.51
9San Diego Chargers7.5427.1310.44
10Carolina Panthers5.9205.550.39
11Detroit Lions6.8286.53200.29
12New York Giants5.91195.6380.28
13Green Bay Packers6.9476.79250.15
14Buffalo Bills5.44295.2930.15
15New England Patriots6.12156110.12
16Chicago Bears7.0356.93270.1
17Cleveland Browns5.53275.4940.05
18Tennessee Titans6.13146.2215-0.08
19Indianapolis Colts6.07166.4219-0.35
20Houston Texans5.65256.0513-0.4
21Kansas City Chiefs5.69246.214-0.51
22Miami Dolphins5.47286.0312-0.56
23Dallas Cowboys6.37136.9829-0.62
24New York Jets5.56266.318-0.73
25Baltimore Ravens5.38306.2216-0.84
26Minnesota Vikings5.81216.6723-0.86
27St. Louis Rams5.77226.7524-0.98
28Oakland Raiders5.93186.9728-1.04
29Atlanta Falcons6.04177.1132-1.08
30Washington Redskins5.74237.0830-1.35
31Jacksonville Jaguars5.36316.8126-1.45
32Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.03326.5421-1.51

[click to continue…]

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Presented below, without comment, is a table of every matchup featuring Tom Brady & Peyton Manning as the starting quarterbacks. Enjoy:

DateHome TeamFavoritePatriots PassingColts/Broncos PassingAdvantageOutcome
2001-09-30NWECLT -11.513-23, 159 yds, 0 TD, 0 Int, 6.63 ANYPA25-43, 240 yds, 1 TD, 3 Int, 2.72 ANYPA+3.91, NWE44-13, NWE
2001-10-21CLTCLT -10.517-21, 262 yds, 4 TD, 0 Int, 16.29 ANYPA22-34, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 8.55 ANYPA+7.73, NWE38-17, NWE
2003-11-30CLTCLT -3.526-35, 226 yds, 2 TD, 2 Int, 4.76 ANYPA29-48, 272 yds, 4 TD, 1 Int, 6.14 ANYPA+1.38, CLT38-34, NWE
2004-01-18 (C)NWENWE -3.522-37, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5.73 ANYPA23-47, 208 yds, 1 TD, 4 Int, 0.94 ANYPA+4.79, NWE24-14, NWE
2004-09-09NWENWE -326-38, 320 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 8.38 ANYPA16-29, 244 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 7.97 ANYPA+0.41, NWE27-24, NWE
2005-01-16 (D)NWENWE -118-27, 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 4.50 ANYPA27-42, 230 yds, 0 TD, 1 Int, 4.30 ANYPA+0.20, NWE20-3, NWE
2005-11-07NWECLT -325-40, 254 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 7.48 ANYPA28-37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 9.08 ANYPA+1.60, CLT40-21, CLT
2006-11-05NWENWE -2.520-35, 201 yds, 0 TD, 4 Int, 0.60 ANYPA20-36, 301 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 7.59 ANYPA+6.99, CLT27-20, CLT
2007-01-21 (C)CLTCLT -321-34, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5.74 ANYPA27-47, 330 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 6.10 ANYPA+0.36, CLT38-34, CLT
2007-11-04CLTNWE -521-32, 237 yds, 3 TD, 2 Int, 6.09 ANYPA16-27, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 6.17 ANYPA+0.08, CLT24-20, NWE
2009-11-15CLTCLT -1.529-42, 364 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 8.61 ANYPA28-44, 316 yds, 4 TD, 2 Int, 6.80 ANYPA+1.81, NWE35-34, CLT
2010-11-21NWENWE -4.519-25, 178 yds, 2 TD, 0 Int, 8.38 ANYPA38-52, 396 yds, 4 TD, 3 Int, 6.56 ANYPA+1.83, NWE31-28, NWE
2012-10-07NWENWE -623-31, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 6.09 ANYPA31-44, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 8.35 ANYPA+2.26, DEN31-21, NWE
2013-11-24NWEDEN -2.534-50, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 7.25 ANYPA19-36, 132 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 3.34 ANYPA+3.90, NWE34-31, NWE
{ 9 comments }

(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.)

Just a quick hit of a post to let you know that tonight’s MNF matchup between the 0-6 Giants and the 1-4 Vikings is, in fact, the worst ever this late in the season by combined winning percentage:

game_idhomeWLTPFPAroadWLTPFPAyear_idweek_numgame_datecomb_wpctcomb_pt_diffwinner
201310210nygnyg060103209min1401251582013710/21/2013.091-12.6NULL
197512150sdgsdg1110148282nyj39022137819751312/15/1975.167-12.1sdg, 24-16
199411210otioti190147218nyg37017122019941211/21/1994.200-6.0nyg, 13-10
197211060nwenwe25092220clt160941451972811/6/1972.214-12.8clt, 24-17
197011020pitpit2407194cin150931561970711/2/1970.250-7.2pit, 21-10
198110190detdet240118126chi150891331981710/19/1981.250-4.3det, 48-17
199710200cltclt06088155buf3301221591997810/20/1997.250-8.7buf, 9-6
201211260phiphi370162252car28018424320121211/26/2012.250-7.5car, 30-22
200001030atlatl4110251351sfo41102664191999171/3/2000.267-8.4atl, 34-29
200512190ravrav490171253gnb310025525520051512/19/2005.269-3.2rav, 48-3
198310240crdcrd250137218nyg2501261561983810/24/1983.286-7.9tie (20-20)
201112120seasea570216246ram210014029620111412/12/2011.292-7.8sea, 30-13
201011290crdcrd370188292sfo37016021920101211/29/2010.300-8.2sfo, 27-6
200911160clecle17078209rav44020615420091011/16/2009.313-4.9rav, 16-0
198011240nornor0110181341ram74029422819801211/24/1980.318-4.3ram, 27-7
201112050jaxjax380138200sdg47024927520111312/5/2011.318-4.0sdg, 38-14
198312120tamtam2120212345gnb77039640719831512/12/1983.321-5.1gnb, 12-9
198711020daldal330135134nyg150991421987711/2/1987.333-3.5dal, 33-24
199910250pitpit33011793atl150741531999710/25/1999.333-4.6pit, 13-9
200211180ramram450194196chi27018223220021111/18/2002.333-2.9ram, 21-16
200511210gnbgnb270201184min45015422820051111/21/2005.333-3.2min, 20-17
200012040nwenwe390192253kan57028327420001412/4/2000.333-2.2nwe, 30-24
200412130otioti480231294kan48034132620041412/13/2004.333-2.0kan, 49-38
200712100atlatl390171272nor57026627920071412/10/2007.333-4.8nor, 34-14
199112090miamia760256275cin211021137419911512/9/1991.346-7.0mia, 37-13
197311260sfosfo370180232gnb35213819819731111/26/1973.350-5.6sfo, 20-6
197811130cincin190110184rai64019316419781111/13/1978.350-2.3rai, 34-21
200711260pitpit730269145mia010018327420071211/26/2007.350+1.7pit, 3-0
199311290cltclt370154233sdg46016419519931311/29/1993.350-5.5sdg, 31-0
198010270nyjnyj160114164mia430991441980810/27/1980.357-6.8nyj, 17-14
199710270miamia520143124chi0701011991997910/27/1997.357-5.6chi, 36-33
199811020phiphi16079162dal4301741151998911/2/1998.357-1.7dal, 34-0
201211050nornor250190216phi3401201552012911/5/2012.357-4.4nor, 28-13
198311070detdet450202188nyg26116621419831011/7/1983.361-1.9det, 15-9
199111250ramram380181256sfo56021815519911311/25/1991.364-0.5sfo, 33-10
199211300seasea110073218den74017520719921311/30/1992.364-8.0sea, 16-13
200812010htxhtx470252293jax47022424020081312/1/2008.364-2.6htx, 30-17
197111150sdgsdg350150179crd3501351491971911/15/1971.375-2.7sdg, 20-17
197910290atlatl350160181sea3501721811979910/29/1979.375-1.9sea, 31-28
200611130carcar440137163tam26010217320061011/13/2006.375-6.1car, 24-10
200711120seasea440167141sfo26010418620071011/12/2007.375-3.5sea, 24-0
201211120pitpit530191164kan17013324020121011/12/2012.375-5.0pit, 16-13
199010290pitpit340109128ram2401641731990810/29/1990.385-2.2pit, 41-10
201212170otioti490271386nyj67024530620121512/17/2012.385-6.8oti, 14-10
197012070otioti371177249cle56023623619701212/7/1970.386-3.3cle, 21-10
197711210waswas540126132gnb2708315219771011/21/1977.389-4.2was, 10-9
200311170sfosfo450202152pit36017621720031111/17/2003.389+0.5sfo, 30-14
201011220sdgsdg450239197den36020325220101111/22/2010.389-0.4sdg, 35-14
199410170denden140108146kan32090801994710/17/1994.400-2.8kan, 31-28
199911290sfosfo370163281gnb55019220919991211/29/1999.400-6.8gnb, 20-3

It is not, however, the worst by combined PPG margin. That honor belongs to this 1972 game between the 2-5 Patriots and the 1-6 Colts (Baltimore ended up winning 24-17):

game_idhomeWLTPFPAroadWLTPFPAyear_idweek_numgame_datecomb_wpctcomb_pt_diffwinner
197211060nwenwe25092220clt160941451972811/6/1972.214-12.8clt, 24-17
201310210nygnyg060103209min1401251582013710/21/2013.091-12.6NULL
197512150sdgsdg1110148282nyj39022137819751312/15/1975.167-12.1sdg, 24-16
199710200cltclt06088155buf3301221591997810/20/1997.250-8.7buf, 9-6
200001030atlatl4110251351sfo41102664191999171/3/2000.267-8.4atl, 34-29
201011290crdcrd370188292sfo37016021920101211/29/2010.300-8.2sfo, 27-6
199211300seasea110073218den74017520719921311/30/1992.364-8.0sea, 16-13
198310240crdcrd250137218nyg2501261561983810/24/1983.286-7.9tie (20-20)
201112120seasea570216246ram210014029620111412/12/2011.292-7.8sea, 30-13
201211260phiphi370162252car28018424320121211/26/2012.250-7.5car, 30-22
197011020pitpit2407194cin150931561970711/2/1970.250-7.2pit, 21-10
199112090miamia760256275cin211021137419911512/9/1991.346-7.0mia, 37-13
198010270nyjnyj160114164mia430991441980810/27/1980.357-6.8nyj, 17-14
201212170otioti490271386nyj67024530620121512/17/2012.385-6.8oti, 14-10
199911290sfosfo370163281gnb55019220919991211/29/1999.400-6.8gnb, 20-3
197910150nyjnyj240128174min3301071421979710/15/1979.417-6.8nyj, 14-7
200611130carcar440137163tam26010217320061011/13/2006.375-6.1car, 24-10
199411210otioti190147218nyg37017122019941211/21/1994.200-6.0nyg, 13-10
200611060seasea430149177rai250921482006911/6/2006.429-6.0sea, 16-0
199710270miamia520143124chi0701011991997910/27/1997.357-5.6chi, 36-33
197311260sfosfo370180232gnb35213819819731111/26/1973.350-5.6sfo, 20-6
199311290cltclt370154233sdg46016419519931311/29/1993.350-5.5sdg, 31-0
198312120tamtam2120212345gnb77039640719831512/12/1983.321-5.1gnb, 12-9
201211120pitpit530191164kan17013324020121011/12/2012.375-5.0pit, 16-13
200911160clecle17078209rav44020615420091011/16/2009.313-4.9rav, 16-0
200712100atlatl390171272nor57026627920071412/10/2007.333-4.8nor, 34-14
199910250pitpit33011793atl150741531999710/25/1999.333-4.6pit, 13-9
201211050nornor250190216phi3401201552012911/5/2012.357-4.4nor, 28-13
198110190detdet240118126chi150891331981710/19/1981.250-4.3det, 48-17
198011240nornor0110181341ram74029422819801211/24/1980.318-4.3ram, 27-7
197711210waswas540126132gnb2708315219771011/21/1977.389-4.2was, 10-9
199510230nwenwe15069160buf510136951995810/23/1995.500-4.2nwe, 27-14
200611270seasea640203219gnb46018525220061211/27/2006.500-4.2sea, 34-24
201112050jaxjax380138200sdg47024927520111312/5/2011.318-4.0sdg, 38-14
200412060seasea650239223dal47019328920041312/6/2004.455-3.6dal, 43-39
198711020daldal330135134nyg150991421987711/2/1987.333-3.5dal, 33-24
200711120seasea440167141sfo26010418620071011/12/2007.375-3.5sea, 24-0
199010220clecle24098139cin4201541531990710/22/1990.500-3.3cin, 34-13
201110310kankan330105150sdg4201411362011810/31/2011.583-3.3kan, 23-20
197811060cltclt360120230was72018613519781011/6/1978.556-3.3clt, 21-17
200711190denden450153238oti63017815220071111/19/2007.556-3.3den, 34-20
197012070otioti371177249cle56023623619701212/7/1970.386-3.3cle, 21-10
200511210gnbgnb270201184min45015422820051111/21/2005.333-3.2min, 20-17
200512190ravrav490171253gnb310025525520051512/19/2005.269-3.2rav, 48-3
200512120atlatl750277237nor39018329520051412/12/2005.417-3.0atl, 36-17
200211180ramram450194196chi27018223220021111/18/2002.333-2.9ram, 21-16
199410170denden140108146kan32090801994710/17/1994.400-2.8kan, 31-28
197211130sdgsdg251152203cle5301411341972911/13/1972.469-2.8cle, 21-17
197710310crdcrd330124122nyg330911261977710/31/1977.500-2.8crd, 28-0
200512260nyjnyj3110189298nwe95032228920051612/26/2005.429-2.7nwe, 31-21
{ 9 comments }

Most Pick Sixes Thrown in NFL History

To pick six, or not to pick six

To pick six, or not to pick six.

Three years ago to the day, I crunched the numbers to see which quarterbacks had thrown the most pick sixes thrown in NFL history. With three more years of data, a robust play-by-play database, and, ya know, Matt Schaub, I figured it was time for an update. In case you haven’t noticed, Schaub became the first player to ever throw pick sixes (picks six?) in four straight games, and then on Sunday, T.J. Yates got the Texans into the record books as Houston had an interception returned for a touchdown in five straight games. But I thought it would be fun to look at the career leaders in pick sixes (and remind you that I discussed the rising rate of interception scores in the offseason).

Nobody has exact pick six data available, but we can do a reasonably job of answering the question of who has had the most passes returned for touchdowns in league history. That’s because we have:

  • Scoring logs for all scores, showing all interceptions returned for a touchdown, dating back to 1940
  • Play-by-play logs for all players dating back to 1999. So we have all the information we need from that point through week six of the 2013 season.
  • Individual game logs for all players, showing all interceptions thrown dating back to 1960.

For all pick sixes thrown since 1999, we have the precise data.  For any game from 1960 to 1998, we can do a very good job approximating who threw the pick-six. Most of the time, only one quarterback will throw an interception in any given team game. Fifty years from now, if you look at this box score from week six, you will be able to know for sure that Peyton Manning threw the interception that Paul Posluszny returned for a touchdown. The Broncos threw just one interception, and it was by Manning, so Manning must have thrown the pick-six. It doesn’t matter if the team has thrown five interceptions, as long as all were thrown by the same guy, such as Keith Null against the Titans in 2009.

The problem games are the ones where multiple players, usually quarterbacks, threw interceptions. For example, the record for defensive interception returns for touchdowns in a game is four, set by the Seattle Seahawks in 1984 against Kansas City. If you look at the boxscore, you’ll see that Todd Blackledge threw three interceptions, Bill Kenney threw two, and Sandy Osiecki added a sixth. So what do we do? Award Blackledge 2 pick sixes, Kenney 1.33, and Osiecky 0.67; obviously this isn’t perfect, but over the course of a player’s career, I think this will work well as an approximation. Because I’m running low on time, I’m going to just ignore pre-1960 data, although you could piece it together at the old link since obviously nothing has changed.

The table below includes all players who threw at least five pick sixes since 1960. It includes all postseason data, and unsurprisingly, Brett Favre is the career leader. He threw 10,960 career passes (including the playoffs), so he only threw a pick six on 0.32% of his passes (the leader in that category is Chris Redman, who threw a pick six once every 100 passes). Favre threw 366 career interceptions (again, including the playoffs), so he threw a pick six on “only” 9.6% of his interceptions. If you’re curious, Aaron Rodgers has thrown just one pick six in his entire career. That gives him a rate 0.032 pick sixes per pass attempt, the lowest among all passes with 1500 attempts since 1960.
[click to continue…]

{ 19 comments }

Bradford looks to check down

Bradford looks to check down.

As a rookie, Sam Bradford ranked last in the league in yards per completion. That year, he averaged 9.92 YPC, 1.61 yards per completion lower than the league average of 11.53. In his second and third years — 2011 and 2012 — Bradford was a little better in that metric, but he still finished 0.65 and 0.34 yards per completion below league average in those seasons. So far in 2013, Bradford has earned his reputation as a checkdown artist: with a 10.21 YPC average, he’s averaged 1.43 fewer yards per completion than the average quarterback.

If you take a weighted average (based on his number of completions in each season), Bradford has been 0.98 yards per completion below league average over the course of his 980 career completed passes. In August, I noted that the Rams have experienced constant turnover at offensive coordinator and wide receiver since Bradford entered the league. This year, with Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and developing talents like Chris Givens, expectations were high for Bradford. So far, we’ve seen more of the same from Bradford, which means lots of checkdowns and few big plays.

For his career, Bradford has averaged just 10.68 yards per completion. The table below shows the 164 quarterbacks since 1950 to complete at least 850 passes. The far right column represents the difference between each quarterback’s career yards per completion average minus the league average (calculated on a weighted-average basis for each quarterback based on his number of completions in each season) rate. As it turns out, Bradford ranks in the “top five” when it comes to the worst era-adjusted yards per completion averages.
[click to continue…]

{ 6 comments }

Finding Comparables For Mike Glennon

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy.

It’s official in Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman is out and Mike Glennon is in at starting quarterback. But what are the odds that Glennon actually plays well this year? I’m not very optimistic for a couple of reasons.

Vincent Jackson is a star, but he’s dealing with injuries to his ribs. On 30 passes aimed at Jackson this year, Freeman has picked up 265 yards, an average of 8.83 yards per attempt. On 23 targets to Mike Williams, Freeman has averaged 5.5 yards per pass. On his other 38 targets, Freeman’s averaged just 4.7 yards per pass. Right now, there simply aren’t enough weapons in Tampa Bay, as the Bucs desperately could use a receiving tight end and a slot receiver.

But here’s another reason not to expect much from Glennon. Since 1978, there are 30 rookie quarterbacks who are “similar” to Glennon in that they met the following three criteria:

  • Were not first round picks
  • Did not start in week 1 (i.e., they didn’t pull a Russell Wilson and win the job with a great training camp — they generally became the starter because the man in front of them was ineffective); and
  • Started at least four games as a rookie.

[click to continue…]

{ 9 comments }

Receiving WOWY Extended Back to 1950

A WOWY Superstar.

A WOWY Superstar.

Last week, we announced that our True Receiving Yards metric has now been calculated back to 1950, so it’s only fitting that we also compute WOWY (With Or Without You) for all of those receivers as well.

Skip the paragraph after this if you don’t care about the gory mathematical details, and just know that WOWY basically answers the question: “Did a receiver’s quarterbacks play better when they threw a lot to him, or not?”

For the brave souls who care about the calculation: WOWY starts by measuring the difference between a QB’s age-adjusted Relative Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt in a given season and his combined age-adjusted RANY/A in every other season of his career. This is computed as an average for each team’s QB corps, using a combination of QB dropbacks during the season in question and the rest of his career as the weights (the exact formula is: weight = 1/(1/drpbk_year + 1/drpbk_other)). Finally, for each receiver we compute a weighted career average of the QB WOWY scores for the teams he played on, weighted by his True Receiving Yards in each season.

At any rate, the only players who don’t get a WOWY are those who either debuted before 1950, played with a QB who debuted before 1950, or played with a QB who ever threw to a receiver who debuted before 1950. Here are the career WOWY marks (when applicable), alongside TRY, for every 3,000-TRY receiver whose career started in 1950 or later:

[click to continue…]

{ 10 comments }

Brady needs to channel another Tom (Flores) this season

Brady needs to channel another Tom (Flores) this season

As Jason Lisk and I wrote about before the season, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger have become something of the poster children so far this year when it comes to veteran QBs working with inexperienced and otherwise less-than-notable receiving groups. And, lo and behold, each has put up career-low RANY/A marks through 2 games. But how do their receiving corps rank relative to those of other teams so far this year, and how do they stack up historically?

To take a stab at answering these questions, I turned to True Receiving Yards. For each player who debuted in 1950 or later, I computed their Weighted Career True Receiving Yards for every year, as of the previous season, to get a sense of how experienced/accomplished they’d been going into the season in question. Then, I calculated a weighted averaged of those numbers for every receiver on a given team, using TRY during the season in question as the weights. For example, here are the 2013 Patriots receivers:

PlayerAgeDebutTRY% of TmAt-the-time WCTRY
Weighted Average560.7
Julian Edelman27200913938%615.7
Danny Amendola2820097220%1541.9
Kenbrell Thompkins2520135615%0.0
Shane Vereen2420114412%110.9
Aaron Dobson2220134312%0.0
Michael Hoomanawanui25201051%278.8
James Develin25201341%0.0

The way to read that is: Julian Edelman has accounted for 38 percent of the Pats’ TRY so far. Going into the season, he had a career Weighted TRY of 615.7, so he contributes to 38% of the 2013 Pats’ weighted average with his 615.7 previous career weighted TRY; Danny Amendola contributes to 20% of the team weighted average with his 1541.9 previous career weighted TRY; etc. Multiply each guy’s previous weighted career TRYs by the percentage of the team’s 2013 TRY he contributed, and you get a cumulative weighted average of 560.7 — meaning the average TRY of a 2013 Pats receiver has been gained by a guy who had a previous career weighted TRY of 560.7.

Is that a low number? Well, here are the numbers for all of the 2013 team receiving corps (not including Thursday night’s Eagles-Chiefs tilt), inversely sorted by weighted average (asterisks indicate rookies):

[click to continue…]

{ 3 comments }

This guy was pretty good.

This guy was pretty good.

About a month ago, Chase & I developed a stat called True Receiving Yards, which seeks to put all modern & historical receiving seasons on equal footing by adjusting for the league’s passing YPG environment & schedule length, plus the amount the player’s team passed (it’s easier to produce raw receiving stats on a team that throws a lot), with bonuses thrown in for touchdowns and receptions. It’s not perfect — what single stat in a sport with so many moving parts is? — but it does a pretty good job of measuring receiving productivity across different seasons and across teams with passing games that operated at vastly different volumes.

Anyway, today’s post is basically a data dump to let everyone know we’ve extended TRY data back to 1950 (before, it was only computed for post-merger seasons). Here are the new all-time career leaders among players who debuted in 1950 or later (see below for a key to the column abbreviations):
[click to continue…]

{ 16 comments }

This guy's 1982 Chargers sure come up a lot when we do lists like these.

This guy's 1982 Chargers sure come up a lot when we do lists like these.

More than a decade ago (on a side note: how is that possible?), Doug wrote a series of player comments highlighting specific topics as they related to the upcoming fantasy football season. I recommend that you read all of them, if for no other reason than the fact you should make it a policy to read everything Doug Drinen ever wrote about football, but today we’re going to focus on the Isaac Bruce comment, which asked/answered the question:

Is this Ram team the biggest fantasy juggernaut of all time?

“This Ram team,” of course, being the 1999, 2000, & 2001 Greatest Show on Turf St. Louis Rams. At the time, Doug determined that those Rams were not, in fact, the best real-life fantasy team ever assembled, by adding up the collective VBD for the entire roster. They ranked tenth since 1970; the top 10 were:

1. 1. 1975 Buffalo Bills – 550 Simpson (281) Ferguson (98) Braxton (83) Chandler (44) Hill (42)

2. 1982 San Diego Chargers – 542 Chandler (190) Fouts (126) Winslow (121) Muncie (92) Brooks (10) Joiner (1)

3. 1994 San Francisco 49ers – 514 Young (208) Rice (140) Watters (98) Jones (67)

4. 1995 Detroit Lions – 478 Mitchell (136) Moore (132) Sanders (121) Perriman (87)

5. 1984 Miami Dolphins – 470 Marino (243) Clayton (145) Duper (76) Nathan (6)

6. 1998 San Francisco 49ers – 467 Young (200) Hearst (137) Owens (81) Rice (46) Stokes (1)

7. 1986 Miami Dolphins – 456 Marino (210) Duper (94) Clayton (76) Hampton (61) Hardy (13)

8. 2000 Minnesota Vikings – 452 Culpepper (170) Moss (123) Smith (87) Carter (70)

9. 1991 Buffalo Bills – 449 Thomas (157) Kelly (143) Reed (80) Lofton (51) McKeller (17)

10. 1999 St. Louis Rams – 435 Faulk (184) Warner (179) Bruce (71)

As an extension of Chase’s recent post on the The Best Skill Position Groups Ever, we thought it might be useful to update Doug’s study in a weekend data-dump post. I modified the methodology a bit — instead of adding up VBD for the entire roster, for each team-season I isolated the team’s leading QB and top 5 non-QBs by fantasy points (using the same point system I employed when ranking the Biggest Fluke Fantasy Seasons Ever). I then added up the total VBD of just those players, to better treat each roster like it was a “real” fantasy team.

Anyway, here are the results. Remember as well that VBD is scaled up to a 16-game season, so as not to short-change dominant fantasy groups from strike-shortened seasons (:cough:1982 Chargers:cough:).
[click to continue…]

{ 2 comments }

An interesting tweet from Adam Schefter today: Matt Ryan has 56 regular season wins in his first five seasons, the most in NFL history. Ryan has started 78 games, one of only three quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco) to start at least 75 games in their first five seasons.

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at not just quarterback wins, but quarterback winning percentage (minimum: 15 wins) and wins minus losses (as a compromise between winning percentage and wins). As it turns out, Ryan ranks 1st in wins, 7th in winning percentage, and 1st in wins over losses (or wins over .500) among all quarterbacks to enter the league since 1960.

Quarterback1st YrWinLossTieStartsWin %W-LWin RkWin % RkW-L Rk
Daryle Lamonica19631710180.94416119116
Roger Staubach19692350280.8211871211
Ken Stabler19712051260.7881595319
Tom Brady200148140620.77434441
Jim McMahon198234120460.739222457
Ben Roethlisberger200451200710.71831363
Matt Ryan200856220780.71834171
Kurt Warner199935140490.7142120810
Dan Marino198348210690.69627495
Pat Haden197630131440.69317421013
Tony Romo200627120390.69215561119
Mike Tomczak19862090290.6911951232
Stan Humphries199031140450.68917351313
Philip Rivers200633150480.68818281411
Jay Fiedler199922100320.68812821429
Jack Kemp196029131430.68616481616
John Elway198346211680.684256176
Mark Rypien198842200620.677228187
Joe Flacco200854260800.675282194
Donovan McNabb199943210640.672227207
Doug Flutie19861680240.66781262143
Dave Krieg198119100290.65591032235
Brad Johnson19961580230.65271312350
David Woodley198030161470.64914422422
Jay Schroeder198531170480.64614352522
Elvis Grbac19951690250.6471262650
Vince Ferragamo19791690250.6471262650
Neil O'Donnell199139220610.63917142813
Vince Young200630170470.63813422925
Rex Grossman200319110300.63381033043
Terry Bradshaw197032190510.62713323125
Bernie Kosar198539231630.62716143216
Jim Harbaugh198823140370.6229713335
Michael Vick200131191510.61812353429
Steve Grogan197541260670.61215123519
Joe Namath196537234640.60914173622
Brett Favre199237240610.60713173725
Greg Landry196825162430.6059633835
Marc Bulger200236240600.612193929
Bert Jones197333220550.611283932
Ken Anderson197134230570.59611244132
Jake Delhomme199929200490.5929484235
Steve McNair199529200490.5929484235
Eli Manning200442290710.5921384425
Tony Eason198326180440.5918594543
Chad Pennington200220140340.5886954654
Mark Brunell199531220530.5859354735
Andy Dalton201118130310.58151134857
Eric Hipple198118130310.58151134857
Bobby Hebert198529210500.588485043
Randall Cunningham198530221530.5758425143
Joe Montana197928210490.5717535250
Jim Hart196724183450.5676665354
Boomer Esiason198435270620.5658205443
Jim Kelly198640310710.5639135535
Charley Johnson196226203490.5616595654
Drew Bledsoe199342330750.56985735
Troy Aikman198938300680.5598165843
John Hadl196223184450.5565715957
Virgil Carter196816130290.55231266064
Steve Beuerlein198818150330.54531136164
Gary Danielson197718150330.54531136164
Steve Walsh198919160350.54331036364
Kordell Stewart199723200430.5353716464
Ken O'Brien198431271590.5344356560
Mark Sanchez200933290620.5324286660
Jim Everett198634300640.5314246760
Joe Kapp196724213480.5313666764
Aaron Rodgers200817150320.53121196772
Scott Mitchell199317150320.53121196772
Brian Griese199927240510.5293567164
Quincy Carter200118160340.52921137172
Scott Hunter197117153350.52921197372
Roman Gabriel196219171370.52721037472
Matt Hasselbeck200120180380.5262957572
Mike Phipps197019172380.52621037572
Peyton Manning199842380800.525487760
Kyle Orton200532290610.5253327864
Byron Leftwich200324220460.5222667972
Drew Brees200230280580.5172428072
Bob Griese196729273590.5172488172
Ron Jaworski197517160330.51511198282
Aaron Brooks200035340690.5071208382
Jay Cutler200634340680.50248484
Doug Williams197833331670.50288484
Neil Lomax198130301610.50428484
Jon Kitna199724240480.50668484
Bill Kenney198023230460.50718484
Brian Sipe197422220440.50828484
Jeff Garcia199935360710.493-1209090
Carson Palmer200432330650.492-1329190
Joe Ferguson197331320630.492-1359290
Daunte Culpepper200028290570.491-1539390
Bob Avellini197523240470.489-1719490
Tommy Kramer197722240460.478-2829595
Kyle Boller200320220420.476-2959695
Trent Dilfer199431350660.47-4359799
Don Majkowski198721241460.467-3899897
Bubby Brister198621240450.467-3899997
Kerry Collins199526300560.464-45910099
Phil Simms197923270500.46-47110199
Tom Flores196023282530.453-571102103
Rodney Peete198921260470.447-589103103
David Whitehurst197716201370.446-412610499
Steve Bartkowski197522280500.44-682105106
Trent Green199822290510.431-782106107
Josh Freeman200924320560.429-866107111
Steve Fuller197915200350.429-5131107103
Dave M. Brown199420270470.426-795109107
Gus Frerotte199419261460.424-7103110107
Jason Campbell200627370640.422-1056111113
Derek Anderson200618250430.419-7113112107
Charlie Batch199819270460.413-8103113111
Tony Banks199625360610.41-1163114115
Jeff Blake199421310520.404-1089115113
Jim Zorn197628440720.389-1653116124
Dan Pastorini197121330540.389-1289116118
Warren Moon198426420680.382-1659118124
Alex Smith200519310500.38-12103119118
Jake Plummer199725410660.379-1663120124
Matthew Stafford200917280450.378-11119121115
Jim Plunkett197123380610.377-1571122121
Fran Tarkenton196123393650.377-1671123124
Tim Couch199922370590.373-1582124121
Rick Mirer199320340540.37-1495125120
Sam Bradford201015261420.369-11131126115
Richard Todd197619340530.358-15103127121
Chris Miller198720360560.357-1695128124
Joey Harrington200223430660.348-2071129130
Mike Pagel198215311470.33-16131130124
Vinny Testaverde198719390580.328-20103131130
Jeff George199021440650.323-2389132132
Norm Snead196117413610.303-24119133133
David Carr200222530750.293-3182134135
Archie Manning197115433610.27-28131135134

Of course, having a good (or bad) winning percentage early in a quarterback’s career doesn’t tell us how much of a “winner” that quarterback will be in the future.

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(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.)

Here is a google doc containing every team-season in our database since 1957, including the Head Coach and offensive & defensive coordinators. It also specifies those coaches’ preferred offensive or defensive schemes (depending on which side of the ball they specialize in), and attempts to figure out the general offensive family (i.e. Air Coryell, Erhardt-Perkins, etc) each team-season fell into.

THIS IS BY NO MEANS COMPLETE. In fact, it’s very much incomplete at this stage — and that’s where you come in. In the comments of this post, or in an email, we’d love to hear corrections and/or additions to the data, if you see an entry about which you know more than we do (and it’s a good bet you do). Thanks in advance for your help, and hopefully we can assemble a more complete listing of teams’ systems/schemes, which will let us do things like compute splits vs. a certain type of offense or defense, analyze whether 4-3 or 3-4 defenses were better in a given season, etc.

So let those corrections/additions pour in!

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The guy on the right was a loser until he wasn't.

The guy on the right was a loser until he wasn't.

Longtime readers of this blog know that I’m not a big fan of Matt Stafford. Last year, when most people were praising his breakout 2011 season, I questioned whether he was as good as his backers claimed. And, of course, his 2012 performance only raised more questions.

Stafford has a 17-28 career record, which in light of his recent contract extension, has caused people to criticize the Lions for giving big money to a player who is not a “winner.” There are legitimate reasons to criticize Stafford, so why would people fall back on statements like this? I’m sure Lions fans wish the team had won more games under Stafford, but that’s in the past. The real question — and the one faced by Lions management before giving him the extension — is whether his current career record has any predictive value when it comes to his future record.

Since 1960, there have been 77 quarterbacks1 who started at least 25 games in their first four seasons and then 25 more games in years five through eight. There’s some survivor bias in the sample — if you stick around for 25+ starts in years five through eight, you’re probably a pretty good quarterback — but there’s not much we can do about that. If you run a regression using winning percentage through four years as your input and winning percentage in years five through eight as your output, you get the following best-fit equation:

0.450 + 0.20 * Old Win %

The correlation coefficient is a tiny 0.04, and the p-value on the “Old Win %” variable is 0.09. Putting aside the questions of statistical significance, there is no practical effect. Stafford has a 0.377 winning percentage, which means this formula would predict him to win 52.6% of his games from 2013 to 2016. Joe Flacco won 68.75% of his games in his first four seasons; this would say he should be expected to win 58.7% of his games in years five through eight. In other words, someone with a great winning percentage should be expected to win only one more game per season than someone with a terrible winning percentage. And that’s even assuming the results are statistically significant, which many would say they are not.2
[click to continue…]

  1. Because their first seasons as starters came after age 25, I decided to eliminate Jeff Garcia, Trent Green, Warren Moon, Kurt Warner, Ed Brown, Tony Romo, Mark Rypien, and Jim Kelly from this study. []
  2. And, of course, it doesn’t mean that that one extra win is because of the quarterback. Presumably, like in the case of Flacco, those quarterbacks who win games early are on good teams, and those teams are more likely to stay good than the bad teams. []
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Rookie Passing, Rushing, and Receiving

In the graph below, the blue line shows the number of passing yards by rookies in each year since 1970, while the red line shows the number of passing yards by non-rookies in the same season. Both are measured against the left Y-Axis; the green line shows the percentage of rookie passing yards to veteran passing yards. As you can see, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden were part of an extremely productive rookie class:

rk vet pass yds [click to continue…]

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More division wins than non-division wins

The Rams finished with the best division record in the NFC West last year at 4-1-1, but St. Louis went only 3-7 in games against non-NFC West opponents. The Jaguars were 0-10 in non-division games last season, but beat both the Colts and Titans to finish 2-4 against the AFC South. Since the merger, three teams have won six more games against division rivals than against non-division opponents. Two of those teams did so in 1998, when the Cowboys went 10-6 thanks to a 8-0 record against the NFC East and a 2-6 mark against the rest of the league (in the playoffs that year, Dallas lost to an NFC East team, a choke that was presumably not Tony Romo’s fault). Over in the AFC, the Titans finished 7-1 against the AFC Central and 1-7 against the rest of the NFL. Technically, the ’82 Dolphins went 7-1 against the AFC East and 0-1 against Tampa Bay during the strike-shortened season, so they fit the criteria, too.

In the new eight-division, four-teams-per-division format, each team plays six games against division opponents and 10 games against non-division opponents. The table below shows all teams since 2002 that won more at least 1.5 more games against division rivals than non-division opponents:
[click to continue…]

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Want to see how passing has changed in the NFL over the last 63 years? A picture is worth at least 1,000 words in this case. The graph below shows the number of interceptions per dropback (red), sacks per dropback (purple), non-INT incomplete passes per dropback (yellow) and completions per dropback (green). Of course, a dropback is simply a pass attempt or a sack. The information is stacked on top of each other for ease of viewing.

pdist2
[click to continue…]

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