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The Ryan Index, Part 3

On December 12, 1965, the Eagles traveled to Pittsburgh and won, 47-13. That game was not necessarily all that notable: entering the game, the Steelers were 2-10 and the Eagles were 4-8. But that day, Philadelphia produced one of the greatest defensive efforts in NFL history. The Eagles defense had three pick sixes, recorded five sacks, forced five fumbles (recovering three), and — most remarkably — had nine interceptions. If a 12-turnover, 3-touchdown day sounds really good to you, that’s because it is.

The past two days, we have looked at the Ryan Index, my measure of defensive aggressiveness/effectiveness. The best game last year came by the Cardinals defense in week 16 against the Packers. Arizona allowed just 8 points (+8), recorded an interception (+4), forced five fumbles (+15), recovered three (+3), had 9 sacks (+18), and scored two defensive touchdowns (+12). That’s a total of 60 points, the most by any defense since those same Cardinals were blanked by the Seahawks, 58-0, back in 2012. [click to continue…]

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2015 Team AV and Draft Value

Did you know Wilson was a 3rd round pick?

Did you know Wilson was a 3rd round pick?

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks both had very good seasons in 2015, with each team ultimately losing in the division round of the playoffs. But they got there with very different rosters when it comes to the NFL Draft.

The Chiefs have Alex Smith at quarterback, and while he wasn’t drafted by Kansas City, he was the first overall pick in 2005. Eight years later, offensive tackle Eric Fisher went first overall, while safety Eric Berry gives the team a third top-five pick, tied with five other teams for most in the league. Dontari Poe, Derrick Johnson, Marcus Peters, Jeremy Maclin, and Tamba Hali were all top-20 picks, too. Thought of another way, all of the top 5 Chiefs in Approximate Value were drafted in the top 20; the team’s next three leaders in AV are Hali and two high third round picks (Travis Kelce and Justin Houston).

Smith had 16 points of AV last year, or 7% of the Chiefs total AV. Since he was the first pick, and the first pick is worth 34.6 points, that means 7% of the Chiefs weighted “average draft value” is 34.6 points. Kelce had 8 points of AV, or 4% of KC’s AV; as a result, 4% of the Chiefs weighted “average draft value” is equal to 8.2, the value of the 63rd pick in the draft. Do this for every player on the team, and Kansas City’s average draft value is equal to 11.5 points, or in between the 37th and 38th picks in the draft.  That maybe doesn’t mean much in the abstract, but it’s the most average draft value of any team in the NFL.

Now, let’s look at Seattle. Eight Seahawks had at least 10 points of AV last year: those players were Russell Wilson (3rd round), Bobby Wagner (2nd), Richard Sherman (5th), Michael Bennett (undrafted), Doug Baldwin (undrafted), Garry Gilliam (undrafted), K.J. Wright (4th round), and Earl Thomas (14th overall). It’s easy to forget, given how talented Seattle is, but only Russell Okung, Bruce Irvin, Marshawn Lynch, and Thomas were first round picks (and only Thomas returns for 2016). And only two of the team’s regular contributors — Wagner and Justin Britt — were second round picks. In fact, Seattle’s averaged draft value using the weighting formula described above was 5.15 points, equivalent to the 101st pick in the Draft. That’s two full rounds lower than Kansas City’s average. [click to continue…]

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A quick data dump today following up on yesterday’s post. The table below shows the percentage of receiving yards gained by 1st-year, 2nd-year, 3rd-year…. and 11th-year and more senior NFL players, in each year since 1950 (excluding 1987). [click to continue…]

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For a variety of reasons, I was curious to know what percentage of receiving yards was gained by each class of players. As it turns out, second-year players gain the most receiving yards of any class. Year two players have the advantage of added experience over rookies, and also are less likely to be out of the league even if they aren’t very good, relative to older players. Even bad players usually make it to the field in year two.

One reason to study this data is to analyze receiver production versus draft class. Because of passing inflation, you can’t simply compare the receiving yards gained by the 1973 class to the receiving yards gained by the 2003 class. But what you *could* do is measure the percentage of yards gained by each class, which should control for era. For example, the famed 2014 rookie class (with Odell Beckham, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, et al.) was responsible for 13% of NFL receiving yards in 2014 and then 19% of receiving yards last year. Those numbers are both really, really good. [click to continue…]

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The best player in the AFC South is in this photo.

The best player in the AFC South is in this photo.

Good article from Peter King this morning on J.J. Watt and the injury struggles he dealt with last year.  King also noted that Watt has 69 sacks over the last four seasons, the most in the NFL.  In fact, that’s the second most by any player in any four-year stretch over at least the last 31 years. FRom 1985 to 1988, Reggie White had 70 sacks, and he did it in seven fewer games (he missed the first three games of ’85 due to being a member of USFL,1 and then four games in ’87 due to the players’ strike.)  Of course, White did play in a friendlier era for sacks (2.63 sacks per game vs. 2.37 over the last four years), so cross-era comparisons always have their limitations.

But I thought it would be interesting, especially in light of Jared Allen retiring, to look at the leaders in sacks on a trailing four year basis: [click to continue…]

  1. The Eagles, after starting 0-2, paid a million dollars to Memphis to essentially buy White from the league. []
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Jim Brown, Bobby Boyd, and Retiring Early

The GOAT.

The GOAT.

Jim Brown is the standard bearer for athletes who retired too young, and for very good reason. Brown led the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns in his final season in 1965, all while averaging 5.3 yards per run and 9.6 yards per reception. With D’Brickashaw Ferguson choosing to retire “early” yesterday, on the heels of Calvin Johnson doing the same thing, I decided to run a quick query on the players who were best in the final season of their career.

The table below shows all players who had at least 10 points of Approximate Value in the final season of their career (Megatron had 10 points of AV in 2015; Ferguson had 9) and whose last season came in 2014 or earlier.1  As it turns out, Brown ranks tied for first on this list, next to Colts defensive back Bobby Boyd.

Here’s how to read the table below. Boyd’s last season came in 1968 with Baltimore.  Playing left cornerback, he accumulated 21 points of AV that year at the age of 31. He received a number of awards that season: he was 1st-team All-Conference (that’s what the + sign means) according to the Sporting News, and a 1st-team All-Pro choice by the AP, Pro Football Writers, NY Daily News, Pro Football Weekly, and the UPI. [click to continue…]

  1. Note that Patrick Willis had just 3 points of AV in his final year in the NFL. []
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Carson Wentz and Non-Division 1/FBS Top Ten Picks

North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz may be a top-five pick in the NFL Draft this year, although a number of mocks also have him falling outside of the top ten, too. It’s early in draft season, but I thought it would be fun to look at just how weird it would be to have someone from NDSU be selected in the top ten.

The table below shows all players drafted in the top ten since 1967 (the first year of the common draft) from non-Division 1 or FBS schools. The last? Steve McNair, who played at Alcorn State, back in 1995. [click to continue…]

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Data Dump: Defensive Points Allowed SRS

Today’s guest post/contest comes from Thomas McDermott, a licensed land surveyor in the State of California, a music theory instructor at Loyola Marymount University, and an NFL history enthusiast. As always, we thank him for his hard work.


In a previous post, I provided SRS-style ratings for all offenses since 1970, using only points scored by the actual offense (including field goals). Today, I’ll do the same thing for defenses – meaning, of course, our “metric” will be points allowed only by the actual defense.1

Here’s how to read the table below: in 1970, the Vikings allowed 10.2 points per game, 8.2 of which came from touchdowns and field goals allowed by the defense. This leaves 2.0 PPG scored by their opponent’s defense or special teams (i.e., due to Minnesota’s offense or special teams).2 Their 8.2 Def PA/G was 9.5 points better than league average; after adjusting for strength of opponent, their rating remains at 9.5. Their overall points allowed SRS rating (DSRS) is 9.2, meaning PFR’s defensive SRS rating undersells them by 0.3 points. [click to continue…]

  1. To quickly recap: SRS ratings for offense (OSRS) and defense (DSRS) on PFR’s website include points scored by the defense and special teams. To get a more accurate points-based evaluation of offenses and defenses, I weeded these scores out and reran the iterations. I didn’t note this last time, but for those interested: the numbers used do not include any home field advantage adjustment or a cap on blowout point differentials. []
  2. In this case, it was the result of three touchdowns off of offensive turnovers and one on special teams, as highlighted by Chase in this post on estimated points allowed per drive. []
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Today’s guest post/contest comes from Thomas McDermott, a licensed land surveyor in the State of California, a music theory instructor at Loyola Marymount University, and an NFL history enthusiast. As always, we thank him for his hard work.


When looking at teams’ offensive SRS ratings (OSRS) on PFR, we know that those number also include points scored by the defense and special teams – punt and kick return touchdowns, interception and fumble return touchdowns, return scores on blocked punts and field goals, and safeties. This makes OSRS not as accurate a point-based rating of the offense “proper” as it could be. But, considering those “non-offense” types of scores make up a small fraction of a team’s overall points scored in a season (the average is around 8% since 1970), we can generally ignore this “hiccup” in the system.

Well, most of us can ignore it; for some reason, I cannot! My curiosity has gotten the better of me, so I decided to run offensive and defensive SRS ratings for each team since the merger, using only points that we would normally credit the offense for scoring (or the defense for allowing) – passing and rushing touchdowns, and field goals.1

As the title states, this is a data dump; I’m hoping that readers of this site will find the info useful for their own research or general interest. Today, we’ll just look at the offense, I’ll post the numbers for defense in a follow-up post. [click to continue…]

  1. I have to assume that at some point Chase or one of the guys at PFR has run the numbers for “SRS without special teams/defense scores”, but I have yet to find it. []
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The 2014 Cowboys had a lot of continuity on offense. Each of the team’s 11 main starters on offense started at least 11 games. Quarterback Tony Romo started 15 games, while running back DeMarco Murray, wide receivers Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, and tight end Jason Witten each started 16 games. The sixth non-lineman starter was usually James Hanna who started 12 games, but even that sells the team short. Hanna played in all 16 games, but started only 12; in four other games, Dallas instead started off with either slot receiver Cole Beasley, third-string tight end Gavin Escobar, or fullback Tyler Clutts on the field over a healthy Hanna.

On the offensive line, Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin each started 16 games and made the Pro Bowl; left guard Ronald Leary started 15 games, with the most major injury hitting right tackle Doug Free, who missed three games in the middle of the year with a foot injury, and the final two games (and both playoff games) with an ankle injury.

Things were only slightly hairier on defense. In the secondary, safeties Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox started every game, while cornerback Brandon Carr also played the full slate. Orlando Scandrick started the final 14 games of the year at corner after being suspended for the first two games of the year.

On the defensive line, Jeremy Mincey and Nick Hayden started 16 games, Tyrone Crawford started 15, and George Selvie started 13 games (but played in all 16). The most serious injuries came at linebacker: Rolando McClain started 12 games, Anthony Hitchens started 11, and Bruce Carter started 8 games. Of course, Sean Lee also missed the entire season after tearing his ACL in May.

If you sort the Cowboys roster by number of starts, the top 22 players started 318 games, or 14.5 games per play. That, as you might have guessed, was the most of any team last season:

RkTmAvg of Top 22
1DAL14.5
2GNB14.4
3MIA14.3
4CIN14
5DEN13.9
6BAL13.8
8PHI13.7
8HOU13.7
8DET13.7
10KAN13.6
11IND13.6
12ATL13.5
13SEA13.5
14.5NYJ13.4
14.5BUF13.4
17SFO13.3
17STL13.3
17PIT13.3
19SDG13.3
20OAK13.2
21WAS13.1
22CHI13
23.5MIN12.9
23.5ARI12.9
25NOR12.8
26NYG12.7
27.5NWE12.6
27.5CAR12.6
29CLE12.6
30TAM12.5
31JAX12.4
32TEN12.3

While Dallas looks pretty good in this analysis, it’s far from exceptional historically.1 Since 1978, 185 teams have had their top 22 starters average at least 14.5 starts.

The table below lists the top 56 teams (a 9-way tie at 48 enlarged a top-50 list) by this metric since 1978. I’ve also displayed each team’s winning percentage in Year N and in Year N+1, with Year N being the initial year in question.

RkTmAvg of Top 22YearWin %N+1 Win %
1GNB15.819780.5310.313
2CIN15.519880.750.5
3TAM15.520000.6250.563
4PHI15.519800.750.625
5.5KAN15.420030.8130.438
5.5MIN15.419940.6250.5
7NYJ15.420020.5630.375
8DEN15.319960.8130.75
10DAL15.319940.750.75
10RAI15.319830.750.688
10BUF15.319800.6880.625
13SFO15.220010.750.625
13RAI15.219900.750.563
13HOU15.219900.5630.688
15.5SDG15.219940.6880.563
15.5RAI15.219930.6250.563
19NYJ15.120010.6250.563
19HOU15.119910.6880.625
19HOU15.119880.6250.563
19CLE15.119860.750.667
19HOU15.119790.6880.688
24.5PHO15.119900.3130.25
24.5HOU15.119850.3130.313
24.5DAL15.119830.750.563
24.5DAL15.119800.750.75
24.5CLE15.119800.6880.313
24.5ATL15.119780.5630.375
28.5DEN1519980.8750.375
28.5PHO1519880.4380.313
33TAM1520010.5630.75
33WAS1519990.6250.5
33STL1519990.8130.625
33ATL1519810.4380.556
33BUF1519790.4380.688
33ATL1519790.3750.75
33DAL1519780.750.688
41.5ATL1519980.8750.313
41.5TEN1519970.50.5
41.5DET1519950.6250.313
41.5RAI1519910.5630.438
41.5MIA1519900.750.5
41.5CIN1519850.4380.625
41.5WAS1519830.8750.688
41.5SFO1519810.8130.333
41.5CHI1519800.4380.375
41.5NWE1519780.6880.563
51CAR14.920050.6880.5
51IND14.920000.6250.375
51GNB14.919890.6250.375
51NYG14.919860.8750.4
51PHI14.919850.4380.344
51NOR14.919830.50.438
51DET14.919810.50.444
51RAM14.919780.750.563
51MIN14.919780.5310.438

As you might suspect, these teams tended to fare better in Year N than they did the following year. While some regression to the mean is expected, these 56 teams had an average winning percentage of 0.640 in Year N, and then 0.519 in Year N+1. This is too general a study from which to conclude much, if anything, about the 2015 Cowboys. It should go without saying that “starts” are not a perfect proxy for “team health” and even if it were, “team health” is not a good proxy for “amount by which a team was helped/harmed by injuries.” But I did find today’s results interesting enough to share.

  1. This, at least in part, is due to more specialization in today’s games, and teams being more likely to change the starting lineup (going with three receivers or a fullback instead of two tight ends, starting in nickel rather than a traditional base defense, etc. []
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A quick data dump today. Since 1960, players who record 20+ carries in a game were on the winning side of things 72.7% of the time. Steven Jackson, however, is just 30-31-1 in his 62 games where he has had at least 20 carries. Given that we would “expect” a player to win 45.1 games given 62 games with 20 carries, Jackson’s 30.5 wins falls 14.6 wins shy of expectation. That, perhaps not surprisingly to regular readers, is the worst record relative to expectation among all running backs since 1960.

The table below shows all running backs who had at least 20 games with 20+ carries over the last 55 years, including the postseason. Thurman Thomas is on top of the table because he had 71 games with 20+ carries, and his teams went 63-8 in those games for an incredible 0.887 winning percentage. That gave Thomas 11.4 wins over expectation, the most ever. If you want to sort by a different category (say, win%), you can: the table is fully sortable and searchable. [click to continue…]

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I previously looked at points per game by each quarterback in his starts and points per game allowed by each quarterback in his starts. Please check there for the fine print.

Today, we put it all together, for a list of points differential per game in games started by each quarterback.

RkQuarterbackGPFPAPDWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Otto Graham8326.7814.4212.36661610.801501955
2Russell Wilson5625.8415.7310.11421400.75282014
3Tom Brady23627.8618.8691815500.7671262014
4Daryle Lamonica9726.6217.898.73702160.753491973
5Roger Staubach13123.8215.318.52963500.733611979
6Aaron Rodgers11428.520.987.52763800.667382014
7Joe Montana18724.6317.357.271335400.711791994
8Terry Bradshaw17722.8515.687.171215600.684651983
9Steve Young15725.7618.846.921025500.65471999
10Bart Starr16722.9916.686.311035860.635451971
10Bob Waterfield2527.9221.846.08151000.651952
11Johnny Unitas19424.3618.535.831246640.649581973
12Len Dawson16723.5117.85.72996080.617391975
13Don Meredith8926.6121.045.56493640.573131968
13Don Strock2324.52195.5216700.69691988
14Danny White10225.2319.735.5673500.657321987
15Peyton Manning28026.9221.535.391909000.6791002014
16Joe Flacco12723.6818.345.34824500.646372014
17Ben Roethlisberger17323.6118.45.211165700.671592014
18Jim McMahon10320.7515.595.16703300.68371994
19Mark Rypien8523.3818.484.89523300.612191995
20Philip Rivers15325.6320.764.86926100.601312014
21Frank Ryan9024.8420.184.67582930.661291968
22Donovan McNabb17722.9218.284.641076910.607382011
23Rich Gannon13824.219.574.63795900.572202004
24Charlie Conerly9221.7817.324.47583310.636251961
25Norm Van Brocklin10526.7422.294.46633840.619251960
26Bob Griese16221.1516.774.38986130.614371980
27Brett Favre32224.0719.754.3219912300.618762010
28Pat Haden6020.2716.054.22372210.625151981
29Kurt Warner12826.6622.464.2755300.586222009
30Ken Stabler15822.5118.424.091035410.655491983
31Jack Kemp11123.319.214.09674130.617261969
32Jim Kelly17723.219.184.031106700.621431996
32Don Heinrich3720.7316.74.03221320.62291962
33Troy Aikman18021.9418.013.941057500.583302000
34Earl Morrall10720.9717.043.93673730.64301975
35Drew Brees21226.6622.763.91238900.58342014
35James Harris4419.0715.23.86261800.59181978
36John Elway25223.2719.433.841628910.645731998
36Rudy Bukich382319.213.79211430.59271966
36Dieter Brock1720.0616.293.7612500.70671985
37David Woodley5821.6717.933.74372010.647171985
37Colin Kaepernick4523.62203.62291600.644132014
37Steve Bono4320.8117.213.6281500.651131998
38Joe Theismann13221.9618.373.59834900.629341985
39Elvis Grbac7322.4118.883.53413200.56292001
40Randall Cunningham14423.0619.563.5855810.594272001
41Bobby Layne13923.7320.243.48835240.612311962
42Jay Fiedler6320.7317.323.41382500.603132004
42Nick Foles252723.683.32151000.652014
43Milt Plum10421.718.523.18564260.567141967
44Tony Romo12925.2822.13.18775200.597252014
45Roman Gabriel15921.318.382.91866670.563201976
46Brad Johnson12521.3818.52.88725300.576192008
46Pat Ryan2123.8120.952.8612900.57131989
46Johnny Lujack2022.5519.72.8513700.6561951
47Andy Dalton6823.1320.512.62402710.596132014
47Tarvaris Jackson3522.2919.692.6171800.486-12011
48Phil Simms16920.317.732.571016800.598331993
49Steve Grogan13822.3819.862.52756300.543121990
49Bobby Thomason4220.3618.052.31192210.464-31957
50Dan Marino25823.0420.752.2915510300.601521999
51Doug Flutie6820.7418.52.24383000.55982004
52Brian Griese8322.0419.862.18453800.54272008
53Y.A. Tittle13924.3922.212.18785650.579221964
54Matt Ryan11524.322.132.17674800.583192014
55George Blanda10725.2323.12.13555110.51941968
56Kordell Stewart8620.1718.052.13503600.581142003
56Bob Lee3217.9715.842.13201200.62581977
57Mike Tomczak7820.7218.672.05453300.577121999
58Steve McNair16321.7219.692.03966700.589292007
59Ken Anderson17821.3119.292.03938500.52281985
59Shaun King2719.5217.522151200.55632004
59Virgil Carter3120.3518.352161500.51611975
60Jake Delhomme10421.7319.781.95614300.587182010
61Craig Morton15419.1417.251.89866710.562191982
61Tommy O'Connell212018.191.8111820.57131961
61Jeff Kemp3020.919.11.8161310.5531991
62Jeff Hostetler8821.0619.311.75553300.625221997
63Ron Jaworski15119.0617.321.74777310.51341989
64Dave Krieg18421.3419.731.61018300.549181996
65Bobby Hebert10321.2619.681.58564700.54491996
66Rex Grossman5121.920.331.57272400.52932011
66Shaun Hill3422.0620.51.56161800.471-22014
67Joe Kapp5219.1517.61.56262330.52931970
68Mark Brunell16121.6120.081.53837800.51652009
69Trent Green11525.0723.581.49565900.487-32008
70John Hadl16921.9620.531.43827890.51241977
71Mark Sanchez7622.2620.921.34413500.53962014
72Jay Schroeder10420.1618.871.3644000.615241994
73Alex Smith10821.2119.941.28584910.54292014
74Andrew Luck5424.823.541.26361800.667182014
75Stan Humphries8721.6220.41.22533400.609191997
76Drew Bledsoe19920.7419.541.21019800.50832006
76Brian Hoyer172220.821.1810700.58832014
76Matt Cavanaugh1920.7919.631.1681100.421-31986
77Eli Manning17823.6222.481.15997900.556202014
77Jim Miller2820.14191.14151300.53622002
78Chad Pennington8720.6419.531.11464100.52952010
79Vince Young5121.5920.491.1312000.608112011
79Gary Cuozzo4118.8517.761.1212000.51211972
79Matt Moore2318.6517.740.91111200.478-12011
79Jim Ninowski3120.0319.190.84151510.501968
80Ed Brown9921.9721.190.78553950.581161964
81Neil O'Donnell10719.8719.120.75584900.54292003
82Dan Fouts17823.7723.030.74898810.50311987
83Gary Danielson6120.4819.750.72283210.467-41988
84Billy Kilmer12120.1719.480.69635710.52561978
85Kyle Orton8220.7320.060.67424000.51222014
86Cam Newton6522.8222.250.57313310.485-22014
87David Garrard7821.6521.090.56403800.51322010
88Bill Nelsen7922.8122.270.54423430.55181972
89Wade Wilson7421.5521.010.54383600.51421998
89John Roach1922.0521.530.5371110.395-41964
90Michael Vick11522.2321.760.47615310.53582014
91Fran Tarkenton25021.420.940.4613011460.532161978
92Warren Moon21321.921.450.4610510800.493-32000
93Billy Wade8622.4722.050.42414320.488-21965
94Bernie Kosar11520.8420.430.42565810.491-21995
95Eric Hipple5820.0519.640.41283000.483-21989
96Matt Schaub9223.6523.240.41474500.51122013
97Jeff Garcia12222.5522.160.39606200.492-22008
98Trent Dilfer11917.8217.520.3635600.52972007
99Bill Kenney7721.7521.490.26344300.442-91988
99Scott Hunter4316.8116.650.16211930.52321977
100Steve Beuerlein10420.2520.10.15485600.462-82003
101Vince Ferragamo5921.5821.460.12302900.50811985
102Charley Johnson12422.2322.190.04595780.50821975
103Jim Plunkett15420.4120.410807400.51961986
103Cody Carlson2019.719.7011900.5521994
104Mark Malone5520.1120.13-0.02243100.436-71988
105Charlie Batch5520.6920.71-0.02253000.455-52012
106Matt Hasselbeck16322.1722.2-0.02857800.52172012
106Steve Ramsey3119.3919.52-0.13141700.452-31976
107Greg Landry9918.9119.18-0.27445230.46-81984
108Bubby Brister7719.3519.66-0.31383900.494-11998
109Bill Munson6618.6819.05-0.36273450.447-71975
110Boomer Esiason17821.8722.25-0.38839500.466-121997
111Babe Parilli10422.1922.59-0.39504770.51431967
111Matt Robinson2022.422.8-0.4101000.501980
112Gus Frerotte9521.3721.8-0.43454910.479-42008
113Steve Bartkowski13120.3820.82-0.44607100.458-111986
114Jim Hart18221.0421.49-0.45879050.492-31983
115Scott Mitchell7322.4122.89-0.48324100.438-92000
115Anthony Wright2017.6518.15-0.581200.4-42005
116Mike Livingston7519.4520.01-0.56314310.42-121979
116Frankie Albert3219.0919.72-0.63141710.453-31952
117Tony Banks7819.1819.83-0.65354300.449-82003
117Tommy Maddox3821.2921.95-0.66162110.434-52005
117Ryan Tannehill4820.6921.35-0.67232500.479-22014
118Joe Namath13222.4223.1-0.67646440.501977
119Matthew Stafford7923.6324.33-0.7354400.443-92014
119Steve Fuller4417.4118.14-0.73202400.455-41986
120Tommy Kramer11420.5521.32-0.77565800.491-21989
121Carson Palmer14522.0122.83-0.82707500.483-52014
122Tony Eason5620.7921.61-0.82312500.55461989
123Marc Wilson6120.3921.25-0.85322900.52531990
124Don Majkowski5719.4420.33-0.89263010.465-41996
124Todd Blackledge3019.8720.77-0.9151500.501989
125John Brodie16421.6322.55-0.91768080.488-41973
126Doug Williams8817.7718.73-0.95424510.483-31989
127Jim Harbaugh14518.6819.68-1687700.469-92000
127Pete Beathard3718.0519.08-1.03181810.501972
128Sonny Jurgensen14921.5422.61-1.07697370.487-41974
129Mike Phipps7317.8219.04-1.22383320.53451980
130Brian Sipe11319.8921.15-1.26575600.50411983
131Ken O'Brien11220.1921.46-1.27506110.451-111993
131Quincy Carter3515.7117-1.29181700.51412004
131George Ratterman2025.2526.55-1.391010.475-11956
131A.J. Feeley1818.8920.22-1.3381000.444-22011
132Bert Jones9921.5622.91-1.35475200.475-51982
133Jay Cutler12122.7424.1-1.36625900.51232014
134Rodney Peete8919.4820.85-1.37464300.51732003
134Kellen Clemens2118.7620.19-1.4381300.381-52013
135Kerry Collins18719.6321.12-1.498410300.449-192011
135Scott Brunner3217.5619.06-1.5131900.406-61983
135Steve Walsh411718.54-1.54212000.51211996
136Joe Ferguson17518.7820.33-1.54809500.457-151989
137Byron Leftwich5117.3118.9-1.59242700.471-32012
138Richard Todd11220.121.69-1.59506110.451-111984
138Damon Huard2717.2218.81-1.59151200.55632008
138Danny Kanell2518.1219.72-1.6101410.42-42003
138Matt Leinart1821.1722.78-1.6181000.444-22011
138Kyle Boller4719.0220.64-1.62202700.426-72011
138Kent Graham3816.9218.61-1.68172100.447-42000
138Kevin Kolb2120.922.71-1.8191200.429-32012
139Jim Everett15820.1922.01-1.82669200.418-261997
139George Shaw2920.5922.41-1.83111620.414-51962
140Chris Chandler15519.7221.68-1.97698600.445-172004
141Bob Avellini511718.98-1.98232800.451-51984
142Tobin Rote11922.8724.87-1.99516440.445-131964
142Vince Evans3918.120.18-2.08142500.359-111995
143Jason Campbell7919.6621.77-2.11324700.405-152013
144Vinny Testaverde21919.521.62-2.119212610.422-342007
145Bob Berry5217.0419.17-2.13202930.413-91974
145Sammy Baugh2219.0521.23-2.18111100.501952
146Jake Plummer14219.7421.94-2.2717100.502006
146Gary Hogeboom3719.3821.59-2.22181900.486-11989
147Tom Flores6722.2824.63-2.34313240.493-11968
147Jack Concannon4516.8219.18-2.36202410.456-41974
147Todd Collins2217.5519.91-2.36111100.502010
148Lynn Dickey11319.722.1-2.4466430.42-181985
148John Friesz3818.7621.18-2.42132500.342-121998
149Neil Lomax10220.6923.12-2.43475320.471-61988
149Johnny Green1922.2124.68-2.4781100.421-31962
150Matt Cassel7220.8223.33-2.51333900.458-62014
150Heath Shuler2217.7320.27-2.5581400.364-61997
151Cotton Davidson5420.3522.94-2.59203310.38-131966
151Adrian Burk4120.122.83-2.73152330.402-81956
151Patrick Ramsey2418.4621.21-2.75101400.417-42005
151Trent Edwards3318.4221.21-2.79141900.424-52010
152Dan Pastorini12218.2721.07-2.8596300.484-41981
153Erik Kramer7019.6922.61-2.93323800.457-61999
153Dave Wilson3116.8419.77-2.94121900.387-71986
154Steve DeBerg14419.622.53-2.94548910.378-351998
154Kelly Holcomb2520.823.76-2.9681700.32-92007
154David Whitehurst3714.8917.95-3.05162010.446-41981
154Cliff Stoudt2120.123.29-3.1991200.429-31988
154Seneca Wallace2217.4120.77-3.3661600.273-102013
154Joe Reed191518.37-3.3791000.474-11979
154Rob Johnson3019.2722.7-3.43121800.4-62002
154Jim Finks4519.5823.04-3.47182700.4-91955
155Jon Kitna12520.8924.46-3.57507500.4-252010
155Mike Boryla1915.5319.11-3.5881100.421-31978
155Christian Ponder3623.527.08-3.58142110.403-72014
156Dave Brown6016.7220.3-3.58263400.433-82000
156Frank Reich2220.1423.73-3.5971500.318-81998
156Dick Wood3420.3223.97-3.65131920.412-61966
156Pete Liske2917.3421-3.66131510.466-21972
157Daunte Culpepper10421.4825.15-3.67436100.413-182009
157Paul McDonald2216.2319.91-3.6881400.364-61984
158Aaron Brooks9220.5324.23-3.7395300.424-142006
158Robert Griffin362326.83-3.83142200.389-82014
158Butch Songin2023.3527.2-3.8581110.425-31962
158Steve Pelluer3017.6321.53-3.992010.317-111989
159Chris Miller9419.4123.34-3.93355900.372-241999
159Josh McCown4918.9822.98-4173200.347-152014
159Zeke Bratkowski4718.5322.6-4.06163010.351-141971
160Ryan Fitzpatrick892024.1-4.1335510.376-222014
161Jim Zorn1062024.12-4.12446200.415-181987
161Charlie Trippi1614.3118.44-4.1351100.313-61952
161Mike Taliaferro3118.122.23-4.13112000.355-91970
161Al Woodall1913.7917.95-4.1651400.263-91973
161Shane Matthews2216.6820.86-4.18111100.502002
161Jake Locker2320.9125.13-4.2291400.391-52014
161Derek Anderson4518.5122.73-4.22202500.444-52014
162Rick Mirer6817.7421.99-4.25244400.353-202003
162Marty Domres3216.4420.72-4.28122000.375-81977
163Josh Freeman6019.7824.08-4.3243600.4-122013
164Norm Snead15819.5923.95-4.35529970.351-471976
165Marc Bulger9821.0825.59-4.51425600.429-142009
166Jack Trudeau5015.4420-4.56193100.38-121994
167Joey Harrington7617.2421.95-4.71265000.342-242007
167Craig Erickson3517.622.34-4.74142100.4-71996
167Billy Joe Tolliver4718.1922.94-4.74153200.319-171999
168Bobby Douglass5317.1921.96-4.77163610.311-201977
169Jeff Blake1002024.82-4.82396100.39-222003
169Don Trull1823.8328.72-4.8941220.278-81969
169Steve Spurrier3816.9221.84-4.92132410.355-111976
169Karl Sweetan1916.8421.79-4.9561030.395-41968
169Sam Bradford4917.5322.55-5.02183010.378-122013
169Ty Detmer2617.7722.81-5.04111500.423-42001
170Tim Couch5916.5921.69-5.1223700.373-152003
170Joe Pisarcik3014.820.17-5.3792100.3-121984
170Steve Dils2717.723.11-5.41101700.37-71988
170Hugh Millen2514.419.92-5.5271800.28-111994
170Chris Simms1714.7620.41-5.6571000.412-32009
170David Archer2317.6523.3-5.6591310.413-41987
170Brandon Weeden2118.2423.95-5.7151600.238-112014
171Lamar McHan7317.8223.73-5.9244720.342-231963
171Tim Tebow1619.8825.81-5.949700.56322011
171Jack Thompson2117.5723.52-5.9541700.19-131984
171Geno Smith2918.6224.59-5.97111800.379-72014
172Jeff George12717.5723.6-6.03478000.37-332001
173Eddie LeBaron8118.1724.31-6.14265230.34-261963
173Dick Shiner2918.7924.93-6.1472110.259-141973
174Mike Pagel5417.0423.24-6.2173610.324-191990
174Al Dorow4421.227.41-6.2192500.432-61962
174Billy Joe Hobert1717.0623.29-6.2441300.235-91999
174Terry Hanratty1815.7222.11-6.3961200.333-61976
174Jacky Lee2316.723.09-6.3971510.326-81969
174John Skelton1717.1223.65-6.538900.471-12012
174Colt McCoy2515.5222.28-6.7671800.28-112014
174Tim Rattay1818.525.28-6.7851300.278-82006
175Chad Henne5318.6225.45-6.83183500.34-172014
175Mike Glennon1819.9426.78-6.8351300.278-82014
175J.P. Losman3315.7922.7-6.91102300.303-132008
175King Hill3020.627.87-7.2772210.25-151968
175Ralph Guglielmi2616.6923.96-7.2771630.327-91963
176David Carr7916.2823.63-7.35235600.291-332007
177Frank Tripucka5020.0627.5-7.44173210.35-151963
177Charlie Frye2314.6122.22-7.6171600.304-92009
177Steve Tensi3419.4727.09-7.62102310.309-131970
177Chuck Long2114.922.67-7.7641700.19-131988
177Kelly Stouffer1612.0620.06-851100.313-61992
178Archie Manning13915.9124.21-8.293510130.263-661984
178Ryan Leaf211523.43-8.4341700.19-132001
178David Klingler2412.6321.42-8.7942000.167-161994
178Bruce Gradkowski2016.0525.05-961400.3-82010
178Jeff Komlo1614.1923.25-9.0621400.125-121981
178Randy Wright3215.0924.34-9.2572500.219-181988
178Blaine Gabbert2715.324.85-9.5652200.185-172013
178John Reaves1713.4123.65-10.2441300.235-91987
178JaMarcus Russell2514.4824.72-10.2471800.28-112009
178Chris Weinke2013.623.95-10.3521800.1-162007
178Dennis Shaw3715.4626.03-10.5782720.243-191972
178Kent Nix1816.527.17-10.6741400.222-101972
178Mickey Slaughter192131.74-10.7421520.158-131966
178Brady Quinn201525.85-10.8541600.2-122012
178Doug Pederson1710.5922.35-11.7631400.176-112000
178Timm Rosenbach2014.626.4-11.851500.25-101992
178Gary Huff289.5721.39-11.8272100.25-141977
178Derek Carr1615.8128.25-12.4431300.188-102014
178Randy Johnson4915.5528.45-12.9103810.214-281976
178Akili Smith1710.7624.76-1431400.176-112002

Again, I’m short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys.

{ 9 comments }

Please see yesterday’s post for the fine print. The table below shows the average points per game allowed in games started by each quarterback, minimum 15 games (but the ranks only count for quarterbacks with 50 or more starts).

RkQuarterbackGPAWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Otto Graham8314.42661610.801501955
1James Harris4415.2261800.59181978
2Roger Staubach13115.31963500.733611979
3Jim McMahon10315.59703300.68371994
4Terry Bradshaw17715.681215600.684651983
5Russell Wilson5615.73421400.75282014
5Bob Lee3215.84201200.62581977
6Pat Haden6016.05372210.625151981
6Dieter Brock1716.2912500.70671985
6Scott Hunter4316.65211930.52321977
7Bart Starr16716.681035860.635451971
7Don Heinrich3716.7221320.62291962
8Bob Griese16216.77986130.614371980
8Quincy Carter3517181700.51412004
9Earl Morrall10717.04673730.64301975
9Steve Bono4317.21281500.651131998
10Craig Morton15417.25866710.562191982
11Charlie Conerly9217.32583310.636251961
12Jay Fiedler6317.32382500.603132004
13Ron Jaworski15117.32777310.51341989
14Joe Montana18717.351335400.711791994
14Shaun King2717.52151200.55632004
15Trent Dilfer11917.52635600.52972007
16Joe Kapp5217.6262330.52931970
17Phil Simms16917.731016800.598331993
17Matt Moore2317.74111200.478-12011
17Gary Cuozzo4117.76212000.51211972
18Len Dawson16717.8996080.617391975
19Daryle Lamonica9717.89702160.753491973
20David Woodley5817.93372010.647171985
20David Whitehurst3717.95162010.446-41981
20Al Woodall1917.9551400.263-91973
21Troy Aikman18018.011057500.583302000
22Kordell Stewart8618.05503600.581142003
22Bobby Thomason4218.05192210.464-31957
22Steve Fuller4418.14202400.455-41986
22Anthony Wright2018.1581200.4-42005
22Tommy O'Connell2118.1911820.57131961
23Donovan McNabb17718.281076910.607382011
24Joe Flacco12718.34824500.646372014
24Virgil Carter3118.35161500.51611975
24Joe Reed1918.3791000.474-11979
25Joe Theismann13218.37834900.629341985
26Roman Gabriel15918.38866670.563201976
27Ben Roethlisberger17318.41165700.671592014
28Ken Stabler15818.421035410.655491983
28Charlie Trippi1618.4451100.313-61952
29Mark Rypien8518.48523300.612191995
30Doug Flutie6818.5383000.55982004
31Brad Johnson12518.5725300.576192008
32Milt Plum10418.52564260.567141967
33Johnny Unitas19418.531246640.649581973
33Steve Walsh4118.54212000.51211996
33Kent Graham3818.61172100.447-42000
34Mike Tomczak7818.67453300.577121999
35Doug Williams8818.73424510.483-31989
35Damon Huard2718.81151200.55632008
36Steve Young15718.841025500.65471999
37Tom Brady23618.861815500.7671262014
38Jay Schroeder10418.87644000.615241994
39Elvis Grbac7318.88413200.56292001
40Byron Leftwich5118.9242700.471-32012
41Bob Avellini5118.98232800.451-51984
41Don Strock231916700.69691988
41Jim Miller2819151300.53622002
42Mike Phipps7319.04383320.53451980
43Bill Munson6619.05273450.447-71975
43Scott Brunner3219.06131900.406-61983
43Pete Beathard3719.08181810.501972
43Jeff Kemp3019.1161310.5531991
43Mike Boryla1919.1181100.421-31978
44Neil O'Donnell10719.12584900.54292003
45Bob Berry5219.17202930.413-91974
46Jim Kelly17719.181106700.621431996
46Jack Concannon4519.18202410.456-41974
47Greg Landry9919.18445230.46-81984
47Jim Ninowski3119.19151510.501968
48Jack Kemp11119.21674130.617261969
48Rudy Bukich3819.21211430.59271966
49Ken Anderson17819.29938500.52281985
50Jeff Hostetler8819.31553300.625221997
51John Elway25219.431628910.645731998
52Billy Kilmer12119.48635710.52561978
52Steve Ramsey3119.52141700.452-31976
53Chad Pennington8719.53464100.52952010
54Drew Bledsoe19919.541019800.50832006
55Randall Cunningham14419.56855810.594272001
56Rich Gannon13819.57795900.572202004
56Matt Cavanaugh1919.6381100.421-31986
57Eric Hipple5819.64283000.483-21989
58Bubby Brister7719.66383900.494-11998
59Jim Harbaugh14519.68687700.469-92000
60Bobby Hebert10319.68564700.54491996
60Tarvaris Jackson3519.69171800.486-12011
61Steve McNair16319.69966700.589292007
61Johnny Lujack2019.713700.6561951
61Cody Carlson2019.711900.5521994
61Frankie Albert3219.72141710.453-31952
61Danny Kanell2519.72101410.42-42003
62Danny White10219.73673500.657321987
63Dave Krieg18419.731018300.549181996
64Gary Danielson6119.75283210.467-41988
65Brett Favre32219.7519912300.618762010
65Dave Wilson3119.77121900.387-71986
66Jake Delhomme10419.78614300.587182010
67Tony Banks7819.83354300.449-82003
68Brian Griese8319.86453800.54272008
69Steve Grogan13819.86756300.543121990
69Todd Collins2219.91111100.502010
69Paul McDonald2219.9181400.364-61984
69Hugh Millen2519.9271800.28-111994
70Alex Smith10819.94584910.54292014
71Jack Trudeau5020193100.38-121994
71Colin Kaepernick4520291600.644132014
72Mike Livingston7520.01314310.42-121979
73Kyle Orton8220.06424000.51222014
73Kelly Stouffer1620.0651100.313-61992
74Mark Brunell16120.08837800.51652009
75Steve Beuerlein10420.1485600.462-82003
76Mark Malone5520.13243100.436-71988
76Joe Pisarcik3020.1792100.3-121984
77Frank Ryan9020.18582930.661291968
77Vince Evans3920.18142500.359-111995
77Kellen Clemens2120.1981300.381-52013
77A.J. Feeley1820.2281000.444-22011
78Bobby Layne13920.24835240.612311962
78Heath Shuler2220.2781400.364-61997
79Dave Brown6020.3263400.433-82000
80Joe Ferguson17520.33809500.457-151989
81Rex Grossman5120.33272400.52932011
82Don Majkowski5720.33263010.465-41996
83Stan Humphries8720.4533400.609191997
84Jim Plunkett15420.41807400.51961986
84Chris Simms1720.4171000.412-32009
85Bernie Kosar11520.43565810.491-21995
86Vince Young5120.49312000.608112011
86Shaun Hill3420.5161800.471-22014
87Andy Dalton6820.51402710.596132014
88John Hadl16920.53827890.51241977
88Kyle Boller4720.64202700.426-72011
89Charlie Batch5520.71253000.455-52012
89Marty Domres3220.72122000.375-81977
90Dan Marino25820.7515510300.601521999
91Philip Rivers15320.76926100.601312014
91Todd Blackledge3020.77151500.501989
91Seneca Wallace2220.7761600.273-102013
92Steve Bartkowski13120.82607100.458-111986
92Brian Hoyer1720.8210700.58832014
93Rodney Peete8920.85464300.51732003
93Shane Matthews2220.86111100.502002
94Mark Sanchez7620.92413500.53962014
95Fran Tarkenton25020.9413011460.532161978
95Pat Ryan2120.9512900.57131989
96Aaron Rodgers11420.98763800.667382014
96Pete Liske2921131510.466-21972
97Wade Wilson7421.01383600.51421998
98Don Meredith8921.04493640.573131968
99Dan Pastorini12221.07596300.484-41981
100David Garrard7821.09403800.51322010
101Kerry Collins18721.128410300.449-192011
102Brian Sipe11321.15575600.50411983
102John Friesz3821.18132500.342-121998
103Ed Brown9921.19553950.581161964
103Patrick Ramsey2421.21101400.417-42005
103Trent Edwards3321.21141900.424-52010
103Sammy Baugh2221.23111100.501952
104Marc Wilson6121.25322900.52531990
105Tommy Kramer11421.32565800.491-21989
105Ryan Tannehill4821.35232500.479-22014
105Gary Huff2821.3972100.25-141977
105David Klingler2421.4242000.167-161994
106Warren Moon21321.4510510800.493-32000
107Ken O'Brien11221.46506110.451-111993
108Vince Ferragamo5921.46302900.50811985
109Bill Kenney7721.49344300.442-91988
110Jim Hart18221.49879050.492-31983
110John Roach1921.5371110.395-41964
111Peyton Manning28021.531909000.6791002014
111Steve Pelluer3021.5392010.317-111989
111Gary Hogeboom3721.59181900.486-11989
112Tony Eason5621.61312500.55461989
113Vinny Testaverde21921.629212610.422-342007
114Chris Chandler15521.68698600.445-172004
115Richard Todd11221.69506110.451-111984
116Tim Couch5921.69223700.373-152003
117Michael Vick11521.76615310.53582014
118Jason Campbell7921.77324700.405-152013
118Karl Sweetan1921.7961030.395-41968
119Gus Frerotte9521.8454910.479-42008
119Bob Waterfield2521.84151000.651952
119Steve Spurrier3821.84132410.355-111976
120Jake Plummer14221.94717100.502006
121Joey Harrington7621.95265000.342-242007
121Tommy Maddox3821.95162110.434-52005
122Bobby Douglass5321.96163610.311-201977
123Rick Mirer6821.99244400.353-202003
124Jim Everett15822.01669200.418-261997
125Billy Wade8622.05414320.488-21965
126Lynn Dickey11322.1466430.42-181985
127Tony Romo12922.1775200.597252014
127Terry Hanratty1822.1161200.333-61976
128Matt Ryan11522.13674800.583192014
129Jeff Garcia12222.16606200.492-22008
130Charley Johnson12422.19595780.50821975
131Matt Hasselbeck16322.2857800.52172012
132Y.A. Tittle13922.21785650.579221964
132Charlie Frye2322.2271600.304-92009
132Mike Taliaferro3122.23112000.355-91970
133Cam Newton6522.25313310.485-22014
134Boomer Esiason17822.25839500.466-121997
135Bill Nelsen7922.27423430.55181972
135Colt McCoy2522.2871800.28-112014
136Norm Van Brocklin10522.29633840.619251960
136Craig Erickson3522.34142100.4-71996
136Doug Pederson1722.3531400.176-112000
136George Shaw2922.41111620.414-51962
137Kurt Warner12822.46755300.586222009
138Eli Manning17822.48997900.556202014
139Steve DeBerg14422.53548910.378-351998
140John Brodie16422.55768080.488-41973
140Sam Bradford4922.55183010.378-122013
141Babe Parilli10422.59504770.51431967
141Zeke Bratkowski4722.6163010.351-141971
142Sonny Jurgensen14922.61697370.487-41974
143Erik Kramer7022.61323800.457-61999
143Chuck Long2122.6741700.19-131988
143J.P. Losman3322.7102300.303-132008
143Rob Johnson3022.7121800.4-62002
143Kevin Kolb2122.7191200.429-32012
143Derek Anderson4522.73202500.444-52014
144Drew Brees21222.761238900.58342014
144Matt Leinart1822.7881000.444-22011
144Matt Robinson2022.8101000.501980
144Ty Detmer2622.81111500.423-42001
144Adrian Burk4122.83152330.402-81956
145Carson Palmer14522.83707500.483-52014
146Scott Mitchell7322.89324100.438-92000
147Bert Jones9922.91475200.475-51982
147Billy Joe Tolliver4722.94153200.319-171999
148Cotton Davidson5422.94203310.38-131966
148Josh McCown4922.98173200.347-152014
149Dan Fouts17823.03898810.50311987
149Jim Finks4523.04182700.4-91955
149Jacky Lee2323.0971510.326-81969
150Joe Namath13223.1646440.501977
151George Blanda10723.1555110.51941968
151Steve Dils2723.11101700.37-71988
152Neil Lomax10223.12475320.471-61988
153Matt Schaub9223.24474500.51122013
154Mike Pagel5423.24173610.324-191990
154Jeff Komlo1623.2521400.125-121981
154Cliff Stoudt2123.2991200.429-31988
154Billy Joe Hobert1723.2941300.235-91999
154David Archer2323.391310.413-41987
155Matt Cassel7223.33333900.458-62014
156Chris Miller9423.34355900.372-241999
156Ryan Leaf2123.4341700.19-132001
156Jack Thompson2123.5241700.19-131984
157Andrew Luck5423.54361800.667182014
158Trent Green11523.58565900.487-32008
159Jeff George12723.6478000.37-332001
160David Carr7923.63235600.291-332007
160John Skelton1723.658900.471-12012
160John Reaves1723.6541300.235-91987
160Nick Foles2523.68151000.652014
161Lamar McHan7323.73244720.342-231963
161Frank Reich2223.7371500.318-81998
161Kelly Holcomb2523.7681700.32-92007
162Norm Snead15823.95529970.351-471976
162Chris Weinke2023.9521800.1-162007
162Brandon Weeden2123.9551600.238-112014
162Ralph Guglielmi2623.9671630.327-91963
162Dick Wood3423.97131920.412-61966
163Josh Freeman6024.08243600.4-122013
164Jay Cutler12124.1625900.51232014
165Ryan Fitzpatrick8924.1335510.376-222014
166Jim Zorn10624.12446200.415-181987
167Archie Manning13924.213510130.263-661984
168Aaron Brooks9224.23395300.424-142006
169Eddie LeBaron8124.31265230.34-261963
170Matthew Stafford7924.33354400.443-92014
170Randy Wright3224.3472500.219-181988
171Jon Kitna12524.46507500.4-252010
171Geno Smith2924.59111800.379-72014
172Tom Flores6724.63313240.493-11968
172Johnny Green1924.6881100.421-31962
172JaMarcus Russell2524.7271800.28-112009
172Akili Smith1724.7631400.176-112002
173Jeff Blake10024.82396100.39-222003
173Blaine Gabbert2724.8552200.185-172013
174Tobin Rote11924.87516440.445-131964
174Dick Shiner2924.9372110.259-141973
174Bruce Gradkowski2025.0561400.3-82010
174Jake Locker2325.1391400.391-52014
175Daunte Culpepper10425.15436100.413-182009
175Tim Rattay1825.2851300.278-82006
176Chad Henne5325.45183500.34-172014
177Marc Bulger9825.59425600.429-142009
177Tim Tebow1625.819700.56322011
177Brady Quinn2025.8541600.2-122012
177Dennis Shaw3726.0382720.243-191972
177Timm Rosenbach2026.451500.25-101992
177George Ratterman2026.5591010.475-11956
177Mike Glennon1826.7851300.278-82014
177Robert Griffin3626.83142200.389-82014
177Christian Ponder3627.08142110.403-72014
177Steve Tensi3427.09102310.309-131970
177Kent Nix1827.1741400.222-101972
177Butch Songin2027.281110.425-31962
177Al Dorow4427.41192500.432-61962
178Frank Tripucka5027.5173210.35-151963
178King Hill3027.8772210.25-151968
178Derek Carr1628.2531300.188-102014
178Randy Johnson4928.45103810.214-281976
178Don Trull1828.7241220.278-81969
178Mickey Slaughter1931.7421520.158-131966

Again, I will leave the commentary to you guys.

{ 5 comments }

Aaron Rodgers has started 114 games (including playoffs) in his career. In those games, the Packers have averaged 28.5 points per game (including non-offensive scores), the highest average for any quarterback in his team’s starts in NFL history.

The table below shows the PPG average in each quarterback’s starts for all quarterbacks with at least 15 starts. However, since 15 is a pretty low cut-off, I only ranked players with 50 starts; if a player had fewer than 50 starts, I just gave him the same rank as the player above him in the table.

Here’s how to read the table below. Rodgers has started 114 games, his team has scored 28.5 points per game during those games, and he has produced a 76-38-0 record. That translates to a 0.667 winning percentage, and Rodgers is 38 games over 0.500.

RkQuarterbackGPFWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Aaron Rodgers11428.5763800.667382014
1Bob Waterfield2527.92151000.651952
2Tom Brady23627.861815500.7671262014
2Nick Foles2527151000.652014
3Peyton Manning28026.921909000.6791002014
4Otto Graham8326.78661610.801501955
5Norm Van Brocklin10526.74633840.619251960
6Kurt Warner12826.66755300.586222009
7Drew Brees21226.661238900.58342014
8Daryle Lamonica9726.62702160.753491973
9Don Meredith8926.61493640.573131968
10Russell Wilson5625.84421400.75282014
11Steve Young15725.761025500.65471999
12Philip Rivers15325.63926100.601312014
13Tony Romo12925.28775200.597252014
13George Ratterman2025.2591010.475-11956
14George Blanda10725.23555110.51941968
15Danny White10225.23673500.657321987
16Trent Green11525.07565900.487-32008
17Frank Ryan9024.84582930.661291968
18Andrew Luck5424.8361800.667182014
19Joe Montana18724.631335400.711791994
19Don Strock2324.5216700.69691988
20Y.A. Tittle13924.39785650.579221964
21Johnny Unitas19424.361246640.649581973
22Matt Ryan11524.3674800.583192014
23Rich Gannon13824.2795900.572202004
24Brett Favre32224.0719912300.618762010
24Don Trull1823.8341220.278-81969
25Roger Staubach13123.82963500.733611979
25Pat Ryan2123.8112900.57131989
26Dan Fouts17823.77898810.50311987
27Bobby Layne13923.73835240.612311962
28Joe Flacco12723.68824500.646372014
29Matt Schaub9223.65474500.51122013
30Matthew Stafford7923.63354400.443-92014
31Eli Manning17823.62997900.556202014
31Colin Kaepernick4523.62291600.644132014
32Ben Roethlisberger17323.611165700.671592014
33Len Dawson16723.51996080.617391975
33Christian Ponder3623.5142110.403-72014
34Mark Rypien8523.38523300.612191995
34Butch Songin2023.3581110.425-31962
35Jack Kemp11123.3674130.617261969
36John Elway25223.271628910.645731998
37Jim Kelly17723.21106700.621431996
38Andy Dalton6823.13402710.596132014
39Randall Cunningham14423.06855810.594272001
40Dan Marino25823.0415510300.601521999
40Rudy Bukich3823211430.59271966
40Robert Griffin3623142200.389-82014
41Bart Starr16722.991035860.635451971
42Donovan McNabb17722.921076910.607382011
43Tobin Rote11922.87516440.445-131964
44Terry Bradshaw17722.851215600.684651983
45Cam Newton6522.82313310.485-22014
46Bill Nelsen7922.81423430.55181972
47Jay Cutler12122.74625900.51232014
47Johnny Lujack2022.5513700.6561951
48Jeff Garcia12222.55606200.492-22008
49Ken Stabler15822.511035410.655491983
50Billy Wade8622.47414320.488-21965
51Joe Namath13222.42646440.501977
52Elvis Grbac7322.41413200.56292001
53Scott Mitchell7322.41324100.438-92000
53Matt Robinson2022.4101000.501980
54Steve Grogan13822.38756300.543121990
54Tarvaris Jackson3522.29171800.486-12011
55Tom Flores6722.28313240.493-11968
56Mark Sanchez7622.26413500.53962014
57Michael Vick11522.23615310.53582014
58Charley Johnson12422.23595780.50821975
58Johnny Green1922.2181100.421-31962
59Babe Parilli10422.19504770.51431967
60Matt Hasselbeck16322.17857800.52172012
60Shaun Hill3422.06161800.471-22014
60John Roach1922.0571110.395-41964
61Brian Griese8322.04453800.54272008
62Carson Palmer14522.01707500.483-52014
62Brian Hoyer172210700.58832014
63Ed Brown9921.97553950.581161964
64John Hadl16921.96827890.51241977
65Joe Theismann13221.96834900.629341985
66Troy Aikman18021.941057500.583302000
67Rex Grossman5121.9272400.52932011
68Warren Moon21321.910510800.493-32000
69Boomer Esiason17821.87839500.466-121997
70Charlie Conerly9221.78583310.636251961
71Bill Kenney7721.75344300.442-91988
72Jake Delhomme10421.73614300.587182010
73Steve McNair16321.72966700.589292007
74Milt Plum10421.7564260.567141967
75David Woodley5821.67372010.647171985
76David Garrard7821.65403800.51322010
77John Brodie16421.63768080.488-41973
78Stan Humphries8721.62533400.609191997
79Mark Brunell16121.61837800.51652009
80Vince Young5121.59312000.608112011
81Vince Ferragamo5921.58302900.50811985
82Bert Jones9921.56475200.475-51982
83Wade Wilson7421.55383600.51421998
84Sonny Jurgensen14921.54697370.487-41974
85Daunte Culpepper10421.48436100.413-182009
86Fran Tarkenton25021.413011460.532161978
87Brad Johnson12521.38725300.576192008
88Gus Frerotte9521.37454910.479-42008
89Dave Krieg18421.341018300.549181996
90Ken Anderson17821.31938500.52281985
91Roman Gabriel15921.3866670.563201976
91Tommy Maddox3821.29162110.434-52005
92Bobby Hebert10321.26564700.54491996
93Alex Smith10821.21584910.54292014
93Al Dorow4421.2192500.432-61962
93Matt Leinart1821.1781000.444-22011
94Bob Griese16221.15986130.614371980
95Marc Bulger9821.08425600.429-142009
96Jeff Hostetler8821.06553300.625221997
97Jim Hart18221.04879050.492-31983
97Mickey Slaughter192121520.158-131966
98Earl Morrall10720.97673730.64301975
98Jake Locker2320.9191400.391-52014
98Kevin Kolb2120.991200.429-32012
98Jeff Kemp3020.9161310.5531991
99Jon Kitna12520.89507500.4-252010
100Bernie Kosar11520.84565810.491-21995
101Matt Cassel7220.82333900.458-62014
101Steve Bono4320.81281500.651131998
101Kelly Holcomb2520.881700.32-92007
101Matt Cavanaugh1920.7981100.421-31986
102Tony Eason5620.79312500.55461989
103Jim McMahon10320.75703300.68371994
104Drew Bledsoe19920.741019800.50832006
105Doug Flutie6820.74383000.55982004
106Kyle Orton8220.73424000.51222014
107Jay Fiedler6320.73382500.603132004
107Don Heinrich3720.73221320.62291962
108Mike Tomczak7820.72453300.577121999
109Charlie Batch5520.69253000.455-52012
109Ryan Tannehill4820.69232500.479-22014
110Neil Lomax10220.69475320.471-61988
111Chad Pennington8720.64464100.52952010
111King Hill3020.672210.25-151968
111George Shaw2920.59111620.414-51962
112Tommy Kramer11420.55565800.491-21989
113Aaron Brooks9220.53395300.424-142006
114Gary Danielson6120.48283210.467-41988
115Jim Plunkett15420.41807400.51961986
116Marc Wilson6120.39322900.52531990
117Steve Bartkowski13120.38607100.458-111986
117Bobby Thomason4220.36192210.464-31957
117Virgil Carter3120.35161500.51611975
118Cotton Davidson5420.35203310.38-131966
118Dick Wood3420.32131920.412-61966
119Phil Simms16920.31016800.598331993
120Pat Haden6020.27372210.625151981
121Steve Beuerlein10420.25485600.462-82003
122Jim Everett15820.19669200.418-261997
123Ken O'Brien11220.19506110.451-111993
124Kordell Stewart8620.17503600.581142003
125Billy Kilmer12120.17635710.52561978
126Jay Schroeder10420.16644000.615241994
126Jim Miller2820.14151300.53622002
126Frank Reich2220.1471500.318-81998
127Mark Malone5520.11243100.436-71988
128Richard Todd11220.1506110.451-111984
128Adrian Burk4120.1152330.402-81956
128Cliff Stoudt2120.191200.429-31988
129Frank Tripucka5020.06173210.35-151963
129Dieter Brock1720.0612500.70671985
130Eric Hipple5820.05283000.483-21989
130Jim Ninowski3120.03151510.501968
131Jim Zorn10620446200.415-181987
132Jeff Blake10020396100.39-222003
133Ryan Fitzpatrick8920335510.376-222014
133Tommy O'Connell212011820.57131961
133Mike Glennon1819.9451300.278-82014
134Brian Sipe11319.89575600.50411983
134Tim Tebow1619.889700.56322011
135Neil O'Donnell10719.87584900.54292003
135Todd Blackledge3019.87151500.501989
136Josh Freeman6019.78243600.4-122013
137Jake Plummer14219.74717100.502006
138Chris Chandler15519.72698600.445-172004
138Cody Carlson2019.711900.5521994
139Lynn Dickey11319.7466430.42-181985
140Erik Kramer7019.69323800.457-61999
141Jason Campbell7919.66324700.405-152013
142Kerry Collins18719.638410300.449-192011
143Steve DeBerg14419.6548910.378-351998
144Norm Snead15819.59529970.351-471976
144Jim Finks4519.58182700.4-91955
144Shaun King2719.52151200.55632004
145Vinny Testaverde21919.59212610.422-342007
146Rodney Peete8919.48464300.51732003
146Steve Tensi3419.47102310.309-131970
147Mike Livingston7519.45314310.42-121979
148Don Majkowski5719.44263010.465-41996
149Chris Miller9419.41355900.372-241999
149Steve Ramsey3119.39141700.452-31976
149Gary Hogeboom3719.38181900.486-11989
150Bubby Brister7719.35383900.494-11998
150Rob Johnson3019.27121800.4-62002
151Tony Banks7819.18354300.449-82003
152Joe Kapp5219.15262330.52931970
153Craig Morton15419.14866710.562191982
153Frankie Albert3219.09141710.453-31952
153James Harris4419.07261800.59181978
154Ron Jaworski15119.06777310.51341989
154Sammy Baugh2219.05111100.501952
154Kyle Boller4719.02202700.426-72011
154Josh McCown4918.98173200.347-152014
155Greg Landry9918.91445230.46-81984
155A.J. Feeley1818.8981000.444-22011
155Gary Cuozzo4118.85212000.51211972
155Dick Shiner2918.7972110.259-141973
156Joe Ferguson17518.78809500.457-151989
156John Friesz3818.76132500.342-121998
156Kellen Clemens2118.7681300.381-52013
157Bill Munson6618.68273450.447-71975
158Jim Harbaugh14518.68687700.469-92000
158Matt Moore2318.65111200.478-12011
159Chad Henne5318.62183500.34-172014
159Geno Smith2918.62111800.379-72014
159Zeke Bratkowski4718.53163010.351-141971
159Derek Anderson4518.51202500.444-52014
159Tim Rattay1818.551300.278-82006
159Patrick Ramsey2418.46101400.417-42005
159Trent Edwards3318.42141900.424-52010
160Dan Pastorini12218.27596300.484-41981
160Brandon Weeden2118.2451600.238-112014
160Billy Joe Tolliver4718.19153200.319-171999
161Eddie LeBaron8118.17265230.34-261963
161Danny Kanell2518.12101410.42-42003
161Vince Evans3918.1142500.359-111995
161Mike Taliaferro3118.1112000.355-91970
161Pete Beathard3718.05181810.501972
161Bob Lee3217.97201200.62581977
162Trent Dilfer11917.82635600.52972007
163Mike Phipps7317.82383320.53451980
164Lamar McHan7317.82244720.342-231963
165Doug Williams8817.77424510.483-31989
165Ty Detmer2617.77111500.423-42001
166Rick Mirer6817.74244400.353-202003
166Heath Shuler2217.7381400.364-61997
166Steve Dils2717.7101700.37-71988
166David Archer2317.6591310.413-41987
166Anthony Wright2017.6581200.4-42005
166Steve Pelluer3017.6392010.317-111989
166Craig Erickson3517.6142100.4-71996
166Jack Thompson2117.5741700.19-131984
167Jeff George12717.57478000.37-332001
167Scott Brunner3217.56131900.406-61983
167Todd Collins2217.55111100.502010
167Sam Bradford4917.53183010.378-122013
167Steve Fuller4417.41202400.455-41986
167Seneca Wallace2217.4161600.273-102013
167Pete Liske2917.34131510.466-21972
168Byron Leftwich5117.31242700.471-32012
169Joey Harrington7617.24265000.342-242007
169Damon Huard2717.22151200.55632008
170Bobby Douglass5317.19163610.311-201977
170John Skelton1717.128900.471-12012
170Billy Joe Hobert1717.0641300.235-91999
171Bob Berry5217.04202930.413-91974
172Mike Pagel5417.04173610.324-191990
173Bob Avellini5117232800.451-51984
173Steve Walsh4117212000.51211996
173Kent Graham3816.92172100.447-42000
173Steve Spurrier3816.92132410.355-111976
173Karl Sweetan1916.8461030.395-41968
173Dave Wilson3116.84121900.387-71986
173Jack Concannon4516.82202410.456-41974
173Scott Hunter4316.81211930.52321977
174Dave Brown6016.72263400.433-82000
174Jacky Lee2316.771510.326-81969
174Ralph Guglielmi2616.6971630.327-91963
174Shane Matthews2216.68111100.502002
175Tim Couch5916.59223700.373-152003
175Kent Nix1816.541400.222-101972
175Marty Domres3216.44122000.375-81977
176David Carr7916.28235600.291-332007
176Paul McDonald2216.2381400.364-61984
176Bruce Gradkowski2016.0561400.3-82010
177Archie Manning13915.913510130.263-661984
177Derek Carr1615.8131300.188-102014
177J.P. Losman3315.79102300.303-132008
177Terry Hanratty1815.7261200.333-61976
177Quincy Carter3515.71181700.51412004
177Randy Johnson4915.55103810.214-281976
177Mike Boryla1915.5381100.421-31978
177Colt McCoy2515.5271800.28-112014
177Dennis Shaw3715.4682720.243-191972
178Jack Trudeau5015.44193100.38-121994
178Blaine Gabbert2715.352200.185-172013
178Randy Wright3215.0972500.219-181988
178Ryan Leaf211541700.19-132001
178Brady Quinn201541600.2-122012
178Joe Reed191591000.474-11979
178Chuck Long2114.941700.19-131988
178David Whitehurst3714.89162010.446-41981
178Joe Pisarcik3014.892100.3-121984
178Chris Simms1714.7671000.412-32009
178Charlie Frye2314.6171600.304-92009
178Timm Rosenbach2014.651500.25-101992
178JaMarcus Russell2514.4871800.28-112009
178Hugh Millen2514.471800.28-111994
178Charlie Trippi1614.3151100.313-61952
178Jeff Komlo1614.1921400.125-121981
178Al Woodall1913.7951400.263-91973
178Chris Weinke2013.621800.1-162007
178John Reaves1713.4141300.235-91987
178David Klingler2412.6342000.167-161994
178Kelly Stouffer1612.0651100.313-61992
178Akili Smith1710.7631400.176-112002
178Doug Pederson1710.5931400.176-112000
178Gary Huff289.5772100.25-141977

I’m again short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys, and all the Rams fans out there.

{ 7 comments }

On Tuesday, I looked at quarterback records when their team allows 21 or more points.  Today, a look at records when scoring 21+ points.  I’m short on time, so today’s post will just be a quick data dump.  I leave the comments up to you!

Here’s how to read the table below. Tom Brady has played in 169 games (including playoffs) where his team has scored 21+ points, and he’s posted a 155-14-0 record in those games (translating to a 0.917 winning percentage). On average, teams win about 75% of their games when they score 21 or more points; as a result, we would have expected Brady to win 126.75 games, all else being equal. Since he’s won 155, this means he has won 28.25 more games than expected, the most in NFL history. In general, one might translate this to something like “this quarterback had a good defense.” Among active quarterbacks, Colin Kaepernick, Brady, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Jay Cutler have the best five winning percentages when scoring 21+ points. [click to continue…]

{ 21 comments }

Back in November, Cian Fahey tweeted me a simple question: “What is Alex Smith’s record in games where his D gives up 21 or more points?”

I made a note to run the numbers in the off-season, and guess what? It’s the off-season. Smith now holds a career record of 7-38-1 (including a 1-1 mark in the postseason) when his team1 allows 21 or more points. That’s really bad, as it turns out. In fact, among quarterbacks who started such a game last year, only Ryan Fitzpatrick (5-43-0) has a worse career record. [click to continue…]

  1. Yes, that is not the same thing as his defense. []
{ 32 comments }

In Between Pete Metzelaars and Scott Chandler

Chandler tries out for the role of Ivan Drago

Chandler tries out for the role of Ivan Drago

The early 1990s were a simpler time. That’s doubly true when it comes to passing statistics, and triply true for tight ends. In week 2, the Bills and 49ers played a famous game in which neither team punted. In week 4 of the 2014 season, the Bears and Packers played just the second game in NFL history with no punts. A streak of 22 years and 2 weeks is pretty long, but that’s not even the longest streak to come out of that Buffalo/San Francisco game.

The Bills defeated the 49ers in no small part thanks to Pete Metzelaars, who caught four passes for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. And until last Sunday, that was the last time a Buffalo Bills tight end gained 100 yards in a game. In 1993, Metzelaars had a 98-yard game; Lonnie Johnson had an 86-yard game two years later, and gained 90 yards in a 1996 game. Jay Riemersma had three 80+ yard games for the Bills, but that was about it. For over 22 years, no Buffalo Bills tight end hit the hundred yard mark until Scott Chandler caught 6 passes for 105 yards against New England.

In between Metzelaars and Chandler, there were 289 games where a tight end gained at least 100 receiving yards in a game. Unsurprisingly, the Patriots lead the way with 29 of those games, with Rob Gronkowski and Ben Coates responsible for 22 such performances. The table below shows — for each franchise — the number of tight ends who gained 100 receiving yards between week 3 of the ’92 season and week 5 of this year.  I have also included (in parentheses) the number of 100-yard games recorded by each tight end for that franchise: [click to continue…]

{ 12 comments }

The Eagles Are 3-0 But In Unusual Fashion

Why are we surprised that the Eagles are winning ugly?

Why are we surprised that the Eagles are winning ugly?

Last week, Neil Paine wrote that while the Eagles were 2-0, it was not all sunshine and rainbows in Philadelphia. The Eagles posted Game Scripts of -7.1 against Jacksonville and -4.8 against Indianapolis; based on Neil’s research, the Eagles had the worst Game Scripts of any team to start 0-2 since at least 1978.

Against Washington in week 3, the Eagles fell behind 17-7 before coming from behind and again emerging victorious. As a result — and after trailing the Jags 17-0 and the Colts 20-6 — Philadelphia became the first team since at least 1940 to start a season 3-0 despite trailing by at least 10 points in each game.

In fact, only three teams had ever overcome a deficit of a touchdown or greater in each of their first three games: the 2000 Rams, the 2000 Jets, and the 1960 Giants. Those teams finished the season 10-6, 9-7, and 6-4-2 respectively, which means they went just 16-17-2 the rest of the season after starting 9-0.

In general, teams that have started 3-0 despite constantly falling behind have not been as successful over the rest of the season as other 3-0 teams. In fact, if you add up the worst margin for each 3-0 team in each game, 25 teams have trailed by an “aggregate” of 21+ points in those three games. On average, those teams won just 53.5% of the remainder of their games. [click to continue…]

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Unstable Divisions

The AFC East was a very stable division over the past two years. The Patriots won 12 games in 2012 and 12 more in 2013. The Bills, with six wins in 2013, also repeated their 2012 win total. Miami won 7 games in 2012, and then 8 last year. And the Jets followed up a 6-10 season in 2012 with an 8-8 season last year. That’s about as stable as a division can get. The four teams saw their win totals move by an aggregate of just three wins, making the 2012-2013 AFC East the most stable division since realignment.

On the other end of the spectrum: the NFC South. The Falcons dropped from 13 wins in 2012 to just four last year. The Panthers jumped from 7 wins in 2012 to 12 last year, and it didn’t even take Bill Parcells to do it. New Orleans also won seven games in 2012, but jumped to 12 wins in 2013. The team that saw the least movement in the NFC South last year was Tampa Bay, but the Bucs still fell from 7 wins to 4 wins, matching the total movement by all AFC East teams. As a group, NFC South teams had a change of 21 wins from 2012 to 2013, the most of any division since realignment.

That’s hardly new for the NFC South, or for that matter, the AFC East. Since realignment, the NFC South has easily been the league’s most unstable division: the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, and Panthers have seen their win totals fluctuate by an average total of 18.8 wins per year, beginning with the 2002-2003 seasons. The AFC East has been incredibly stable: no team has ever finished with more wins than New England, while the Bills have finished last or tied for last eight times since realignment. As a result, the average movement among AFC East teams — in the aggregate — has been just 6.3 wins.

RkDivisionChange in Wins/YrChange # Wins/Tm Yr
1NFC South15.73.9
2NFC North13.33.3
3AFC West11.93.3
4AFC North11.93.0
5AFC South11.72.9
6NFC East11.32.8
7NFC West10.82.7
8AFC East10.82.7

[click to continue…]

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Great Offenses and Missing the Playoffs

A common sight on any fall Sunday in the early '00s.

A common sight on any fall Sunday in the early '00s.

From 2002 to 2005, Peyton Manning was the best quarterback in the NFL, at least statistically, by a wide margin. But the #2 quarterback in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt was Trent Green, and there was a wide gap between Green and all other quarterbacks not named Manning.  Over that same period, Tony Gonzalez led all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. And the Chiefs rushed for 34 more touchdowns than any other team, in addition to ranking third in rushing yards and fourth in yards per carry.

Kansas City ranked 4th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt in 2002, 1st in 2003, 3rd in 2004, and 2nd in 2005.  In terms of Adjusted Yards per Carry, the Chiefs were 2nd in 2002, 3rd in 2003, 1st in 2004, and 3rd in 2005. That’s an incredible streak of not just dominance, but balanced dominance. And Kansas City missed the playoffs in three of those four years! (pours one out for Jason Lisk).

On Monday, we looked at some great defenses that missed the playoffs. Today, a look at some of the best offenses to stay home for the winter. And in the last 15 years, the 2002 Chiefs, 2004 Chiefs, and 2005 Chiefs are the only teams to rank in the top five in both ANY/A and AYPC and miss the playoffs.

What other teams since the merger met those criteria? [click to continue…]

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Great Defenses and Missing the Playoffs

Lewis finds out his quarterback is Kyle Boller

Lewis finds out his quarterback is Kyle Boller.

Ten years ago, the teams with three of the four best defenses in football missed the playoffs. The Buffalo Bills ranked 1st in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt allowed and 2nd in Adjusted Yards per Carry allowed. That year, Sam Adams, Takeo Spikes, Terrence McGee, and Nate Clements made the Pro Bowl, while Aaron Schobel had 8 sacks and London Fletcher was London Fletcher but younger. The team ranked 1st in DVOA by a good margin, but finished 9-7, narrowly missing the playoffs.

That year, Baltimore ranked 4th in ANY/A allowed, 3rd in AYPC allowed, and 2nd in DVOA. The Ravens weren’t quite as good on defense as the ’00 or ’06 iterations, but still had Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, Adalius Thomas, Chris McAlister, and Ed Reed (not to mention a 37-year-old Deion Sanders). Of course, this was the Ravens team that was one of the most one-sided team in NFL history. Baltimore also finished 9-7 in a year where six AFC teams won double-digit games.

Over in the NFC, Washington’s defense ranked 1st in Adjusted YPC and 3rd in ANY/A in Joe Gibbs’ first season back in D.C. Marcus Washington was the team’s only Pro Bowler, but the defense featured a rookie Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark, Shawn Springs, Antonio Pierce, and Cornelius Griffin. Despite ranking 4th in defensive DVOA, the team won just six games.

So why today are we looking at these three teams, nearly ten years later? It’s not to remind you that Drew Bledsoe, Kyle Boller, and Mark Brunell failed to guide those teams to the playoffs. As it turns out, these are the last three teams to finish in the top five in both ANY/A allowed and AYPC allowed and still miss the playoffs. In fact, since 1970, just nine other teams have managed to pull off that feat.

  • In 2002, Miami ranked 5th in both ANY/A and AYPC allowed, while the Panthers ranked 4th in both categories. Carolina was a year away from a Super Bowl appearance, while the Dolphins were nearing the end of their Jason TaylorZach ThomasSam Madison run.
  • In 1999, a year before The Year, the Ravens ranked 2nd in both metrics but finished just 8-8.
  • You know all about the 1991 Eagles, so of course they are on this list.
  • The 1987 Giants, a year after winning the Super Bowl, still produced a Super Bowl caliber defense behind Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Pepper Johnson, and Harry Carson, but the team’s offensive line (3rd most sacks allowed, 2nd worst YPC average) torpedoed the offense.
  • In 1978, a year before nearly carrying the team to the Super Bowl, Lee Roy Selmon and Dave Pear helped Tampa Bay rank 1st in AYPC allowed and 3rd in ANY/A allowed. But a miserable offense led to a losing record in the franchise’s third season.
  • The 1974 Packers ranked 5th in both categories. The defense sent Ted Hendricks, Willie Buchanon, and Ken Ellis to the Pro Bowl, but if you think this is just a thinly-veiled reason to bring up John Hadl, you are a regular reader of this blog.

Since 2004, six teams have ranked 1st or 2nd in AYPC allowed but missed the playoffs. Two of those seasons occurred last year, with the Jets and Cardinals, respectively. The 2006 and 2007 Vikings also join that list, along with the 2007 Ravens (a year after a magnificent season) and the 2010 49ers (a year before a magnificent season).

Having a dominant pass defense is even more likely to send a team to the playoffs. Since 2004, only one team — the 2012 Bears — ranked 1st in ANY/A allowed but missed the playoffs. The 2009 Bills are the only team to rank 2nd in ANY/A allowed and miss the playoffs, while the 2013 Bills, 2010 Chargers, and ’05 Jets are the only teams since ’04 to rank 3rd in ANY/A allowed and still fail to make it to January.

Too Long; Didn’t Read

  • The 2004 season was kind of crazy.
  • Since 2002, 24 teams have ranked in the top five in both pass defense and rush defense; five of those teams missed the playoffs, although the last 16 teams pull off this feat have made the postseason.
  • Of the 36 teams to rank in the top 3 in Adjusted Yards per Carry allowed since 2002, only 19 of those teams made the playoffs. Although it’s worth noting that eight of the 17 teams to miss the playoffs out of this group ranked 20th or worse in ANY/A allowed.
  • 28 of the 36 teams to rank in the top 3 in ANY/A allowed made the playoffs.
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Lynch leads the league in Skittles eaten over average

Lynch leads the league in Skittles eaten over average.

Over the last three years, no player has recorded more carries than Marshawn Lynch. But while Lynch’s 901 carries may lead the league, that’s a pretty low number, at least in modern history. The 2011-2013 seasons very nearly became the first three-year period where no running back had 900 carries since 1989 to 1991, which was essentially the post-Eric Dickerson/pre-stud running back era. This jives with what we’ve seen on a broader level, in that the NFL is both veering away from rushing and towards running back committees, two factors which have combined to torpedo running back value.

The table below shows the leader in rush attempts for every three year period beginning with the AFL-NFL merger. Here’s how to lead the Lynch line: From 2011 to 2013, Lynch, who was 27 in 2013, led the NFL in carries. Over that period, he rushed 901 times for 4,051 yards, a 4.50 yards per carry average. [click to continue…]

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The Evolution of Quarterbacks

Get your roll on 'Pepp

Get your roll on 'Pepp.

With the NFL draft approaching, you’ll hear a lot of statements about how the quarterback position is changing. Mobile quarterbacks are now “in”, which is a good thing for Johnny Manziel. A 6’4 frame is no longer required, which is a good thing for… well, Manziel, and negates some of the value of a player like Blake Bortles or Tom Savage. And, heck, do you even need to get a quarterback in the first round? If Teddy Bridgewater falls to the second round, how much of an outlier does that make him? What about say, Aaron Murray, who is both short and expected to be a late round pick?

I can’t tell you how any of the prospects in this year’s draft will turn out, but I can walk you through how the quarterback position has changed over the course of NFL history.

Methodology

For all three variables, I will be using the same methodology to measure “league average” in each season.  Each player in each year gets credit for his percentage of league-wide pass attempts in the season multiplied by his value in each variable.  For example, when calculating the 2013 league average, Peyton Manning’s [rushing numbers, height, draft position] was worth 3.6% of the league average, while in 1958, Johnny Unitas’s [rushing, height, draft position] was worth 6.7% of the league average. This gives us a weighted average for each variable, weighted by the number of pass attempts by that quarterback. [click to continue…]

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Chris Berman has already copyrighted Teddy 'Bridge over troubled' Water.

Chris Berman has already copyrighted Teddy 'Bridge over troubled' Water.

Sometimes, it’s hard to believe that it’s 2014. With draft season now in full gear, I wanted to take a few minutes and look at the stats of the top college quarterbacks from last year. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done. I couldn’t find a site that presented a full list of all college quarterback stats, including sacks, which is, of course, insane.

College football records sacks as rushing plays for the offense; as a result, knowing how many sacks Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater took last year is not that easy to find. So here’s what I did:

1) Using team game log data, I found the number of sacks for each defense in each game.

2) Next, I recorded the percentage of team pass attempts recorded by each quarterback for his offense in each game (usually close to 100%).

3) I synched up these two sets of data, and multiplied each quarterback’s percentage of team pass attempts by the number of sacks by his opponent’s defense in that game.

That provided me with some useful estimated sack data. From there, I calculated each quarterback’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average, which is simply (Gross_passing_yards + 20*PassTDs – 45*INTs – Estimated_sack_yards_lost) / (Pass_attempts + Estimated_sacks). I did this for the 140 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts in the FBS (sorry, Jimmy Garoppolo fans) in 2013.

Since the number of pass attempts vary wildly at the college level, I also calculated a Value Over Average statistic. The 140 quarterbacks had an average ANY/A of 6.44, so the Value metric (which is what the table is sorted by) is simply (ANY/A – 6.44) * (Pass_attempts + Estimated_sacks). Here’s how to read Bridegwater’s line, the Louisville quarterback who many believe will be the first quarterback selected in the draft.

Bridgewater provided the 5th most passing value by this formula, completing 303 of 427 passes for 3,970 yards with 31 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He took 25.5 sacks and lost 185 yards, and had a sack rate of 6% (if I included the percent sign, the table would not sort correctly). Bridgewater also averaged 13.1 yards per completion and had a 9.34 ANY/A average, which combined with his number of dropbacks, means he added 1,310 adjusted net yards of value over average. By default, the table below only shows the top 25, but you can sort and/or search to find each of the 140 quarterbacks (and you can change the number of quarterbacks displayed via the dropdown box to the left). [click to continue…]

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2013 Team NY/A and ANY/A Differential Data

Just a quick data dump here for those inquiring minds. Here are the leaders in NY/A differential, which is simply Net Yards per Attempt (which incorporates sack data) for each team minus the Net Yards per Attempt allowed by that team. Seattle ranks #1 in NY/A differential, as Russell Wilson‘s offense has averaged 6.97 NY/A (which ranks 6th) and the defense has allowed just 4.85 NY/A (which ranks first), giving them a +2.13 NY/A differential.

RkTmNY/ANY/A RkNY/A ANY/A A RkNY/A Diff
1Seattle Seahawks6.9764.8512.13
2Cincinnati Bengals6.7295.0921.63
3Denver Broncos7.8316.22171.61
4New Orleans Saints7.1545.5871.56
5Arizona Cardinals6.51115.5560.96
6Philadelphia Eagles7.4236.56220.86
7San Francisco 49ers6.53105.6890.86
8Pittsburgh Steelers6.39125.88100.51
9San Diego Chargers7.5427.1310.44
10Carolina Panthers5.9205.550.39
11Detroit Lions6.8286.53200.29
12New York Giants5.91195.6380.28
13Green Bay Packers6.9476.79250.15
14Buffalo Bills5.44295.2930.15
15New England Patriots6.12156110.12
16Chicago Bears7.0356.93270.1
17Cleveland Browns5.53275.4940.05
18Tennessee Titans6.13146.2215-0.08
19Indianapolis Colts6.07166.4219-0.35
20Houston Texans5.65256.0513-0.4
21Kansas City Chiefs5.69246.214-0.51
22Miami Dolphins5.47286.0312-0.56
23Dallas Cowboys6.37136.9829-0.62
24New York Jets5.56266.318-0.73
25Baltimore Ravens5.38306.2216-0.84
26Minnesota Vikings5.81216.6723-0.86
27St. Louis Rams5.77226.7524-0.98
28Oakland Raiders5.93186.9728-1.04
29Atlanta Falcons6.04177.1132-1.08
30Washington Redskins5.74237.0830-1.35
31Jacksonville Jaguars5.36316.8126-1.45
32Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.03326.5421-1.51

[click to continue…]

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Presented below, without comment, is a table of every matchup featuring Tom Brady & Peyton Manning as the starting quarterbacks. Enjoy:

DateHome TeamFavoritePatriots PassingColts/Broncos PassingAdvantageOutcome
2001-09-30NWECLT -11.513-23, 159 yds, 0 TD, 0 Int, 6.63 ANYPA25-43, 240 yds, 1 TD, 3 Int, 2.72 ANYPA+3.91, NWE44-13, NWE
2001-10-21CLTCLT -10.517-21, 262 yds, 4 TD, 0 Int, 16.29 ANYPA22-34, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 8.55 ANYPA+7.73, NWE38-17, NWE
2003-11-30CLTCLT -3.526-35, 226 yds, 2 TD, 2 Int, 4.76 ANYPA29-48, 272 yds, 4 TD, 1 Int, 6.14 ANYPA+1.38, CLT38-34, NWE
2004-01-18 (C)NWENWE -3.522-37, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5.73 ANYPA23-47, 208 yds, 1 TD, 4 Int, 0.94 ANYPA+4.79, NWE24-14, NWE
2004-09-09NWENWE -326-38, 320 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 8.38 ANYPA16-29, 244 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 7.97 ANYPA+0.41, NWE27-24, NWE
2005-01-16 (D)NWENWE -118-27, 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 4.50 ANYPA27-42, 230 yds, 0 TD, 1 Int, 4.30 ANYPA+0.20, NWE20-3, NWE
2005-11-07NWECLT -325-40, 254 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 7.48 ANYPA28-37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 9.08 ANYPA+1.60, CLT40-21, CLT
2006-11-05NWENWE -2.520-35, 201 yds, 0 TD, 4 Int, 0.60 ANYPA20-36, 301 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 7.59 ANYPA+6.99, CLT27-20, CLT
2007-01-21 (C)CLTCLT -321-34, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5.74 ANYPA27-47, 330 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 6.10 ANYPA+0.36, CLT38-34, CLT
2007-11-04CLTNWE -521-32, 237 yds, 3 TD, 2 Int, 6.09 ANYPA16-27, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 6.17 ANYPA+0.08, CLT24-20, NWE
2009-11-15CLTCLT -1.529-42, 364 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 8.61 ANYPA28-44, 316 yds, 4 TD, 2 Int, 6.80 ANYPA+1.81, NWE35-34, CLT
2010-11-21NWENWE -4.519-25, 178 yds, 2 TD, 0 Int, 8.38 ANYPA38-52, 396 yds, 4 TD, 3 Int, 6.56 ANYPA+1.83, NWE31-28, NWE
2012-10-07NWENWE -623-31, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 6.09 ANYPA31-44, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 8.35 ANYPA+2.26, DEN31-21, NWE
2013-11-24NWEDEN -2.534-50, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 7.25 ANYPA19-36, 132 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 3.34 ANYPA+3.90, NWE34-31, NWE
{ 9 comments }

(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.)

Just a quick hit of a post to let you know that tonight’s MNF matchup between the 0-6 Giants and the 1-4 Vikings is, in fact, the worst ever this late in the season by combined winning percentage:

game_idhomeWLTPFPAroadWLTPFPAyear_idweek_numgame_datecomb_wpctcomb_pt_diffwinner
201310210nygnyg060103209min1401251582013710/21/2013.091-12.6NULL
197512150sdgsdg1110148282nyj39022137819751312/15/1975.167-12.1sdg, 24-16
199411210otioti190147218nyg37017122019941211/21/1994.200-6.0nyg, 13-10
197211060nwenwe25092220clt160941451972811/6/1972.214-12.8clt, 24-17
197011020pitpit2407194cin150931561970711/2/1970.250-7.2pit, 21-10
198110190detdet240118126chi150891331981710/19/1981.250-4.3det, 48-17
199710200cltclt06088155buf3301221591997810/20/1997.250-8.7buf, 9-6
201211260phiphi370162252car28018424320121211/26/2012.250-7.5car, 30-22
200001030atlatl4110251351sfo41102664191999171/3/2000.267-8.4atl, 34-29
200512190ravrav490171253gnb310025525520051512/19/2005.269-3.2rav, 48-3
198310240crdcrd250137218nyg2501261561983810/24/1983.286-7.9tie (20-20)
201112120seasea570216246ram210014029620111412/12/2011.292-7.8sea, 30-13
201011290crdcrd370188292sfo37016021920101211/29/2010.300-8.2sfo, 27-6
200911160clecle17078209rav44020615420091011/16/2009.313-4.9rav, 16-0
198011240nornor0110181341ram74029422819801211/24/1980.318-4.3ram, 27-7
201112050jaxjax380138200sdg47024927520111312/5/2011.318-4.0sdg, 38-14
198312120tamtam2120212345gnb77039640719831512/12/1983.321-5.1gnb, 12-9
198711020daldal330135134nyg150991421987711/2/1987.333-3.5dal, 33-24
199910250pitpit33011793atl150741531999710/25/1999.333-4.6pit, 13-9
200211180ramram450194196chi27018223220021111/18/2002.333-2.9ram, 21-16
200511210gnbgnb270201184min45015422820051111/21/2005.333-3.2min, 20-17
200012040nwenwe390192253kan57028327420001412/4/2000.333-2.2nwe, 30-24
200412130otioti480231294kan48034132620041412/13/2004.333-2.0kan, 49-38
200712100atlatl390171272nor57026627920071412/10/2007.333-4.8nor, 34-14
199112090miamia760256275cin211021137419911512/9/1991.346-7.0mia, 37-13
197311260sfosfo370180232gnb35213819819731111/26/1973.350-5.6sfo, 20-6
197811130cincin190110184rai64019316419781111/13/1978.350-2.3rai, 34-21
200711260pitpit730269145mia010018327420071211/26/2007.350+1.7pit, 3-0
199311290cltclt370154233sdg46016419519931311/29/1993.350-5.5sdg, 31-0
198010270nyjnyj160114164mia430991441980810/27/1980.357-6.8nyj, 17-14
199710270miamia520143124chi0701011991997910/27/1997.357-5.6chi, 36-33
199811020phiphi16079162dal4301741151998911/2/1998.357-1.7dal, 34-0
201211050nornor250190216phi3401201552012911/5/2012.357-4.4nor, 28-13
198311070detdet450202188nyg26116621419831011/7/1983.361-1.9det, 15-9
199111250ramram380181256sfo56021815519911311/25/1991.364-0.5sfo, 33-10
199211300seasea110073218den74017520719921311/30/1992.364-8.0sea, 16-13
200812010htxhtx470252293jax47022424020081312/1/2008.364-2.6htx, 30-17
197111150sdgsdg350150179crd3501351491971911/15/1971.375-2.7sdg, 20-17
197910290atlatl350160181sea3501721811979910/29/1979.375-1.9sea, 31-28
200611130carcar440137163tam26010217320061011/13/2006.375-6.1car, 24-10
200711120seasea440167141sfo26010418620071011/12/2007.375-3.5sea, 24-0
201211120pitpit530191164kan17013324020121011/12/2012.375-5.0pit, 16-13
199010290pitpit340109128ram2401641731990810/29/1990.385-2.2pit, 41-10
201212170otioti490271386nyj67024530620121512/17/2012.385-6.8oti, 14-10
197012070otioti371177249cle56023623619701212/7/1970.386-3.3cle, 21-10
197711210waswas540126132gnb2708315219771011/21/1977.389-4.2was, 10-9
200311170sfosfo450202152pit36017621720031111/17/2003.389+0.5sfo, 30-14
201011220sdgsdg450239197den36020325220101111/22/2010.389-0.4sdg, 35-14
199410170denden140108146kan32090801994710/17/1994.400-2.8kan, 31-28
199911290sfosfo370163281gnb55019220919991211/29/1999.400-6.8gnb, 20-3

It is not, however, the worst by combined PPG margin. That honor belongs to this 1972 game between the 2-5 Patriots and the 1-6 Colts (Baltimore ended up winning 24-17):

game_idhomeWLTPFPAroadWLTPFPAyear_idweek_numgame_datecomb_wpctcomb_pt_diffwinner
197211060nwenwe25092220clt160941451972811/6/1972.214-12.8clt, 24-17
201310210nygnyg060103209min1401251582013710/21/2013.091-12.6NULL
197512150sdgsdg1110148282nyj39022137819751312/15/1975.167-12.1sdg, 24-16
199710200cltclt06088155buf3301221591997810/20/1997.250-8.7buf, 9-6
200001030atlatl4110251351sfo41102664191999171/3/2000.267-8.4atl, 34-29
201011290crdcrd370188292sfo37016021920101211/29/2010.300-8.2sfo, 27-6
199211300seasea110073218den74017520719921311/30/1992.364-8.0sea, 16-13
198310240crdcrd250137218nyg2501261561983810/24/1983.286-7.9tie (20-20)
201112120seasea570216246ram210014029620111412/12/2011.292-7.8sea, 30-13
201211260phiphi370162252car28018424320121211/26/2012.250-7.5car, 30-22
197011020pitpit2407194cin150931561970711/2/1970.250-7.2pit, 21-10
199112090miamia760256275cin211021137419911512/9/1991.346-7.0mia, 37-13
198010270nyjnyj160114164mia430991441980810/27/1980.357-6.8nyj, 17-14
201212170otioti490271386nyj67024530620121512/17/2012.385-6.8oti, 14-10
199911290sfosfo370163281gnb55019220919991211/29/1999.400-6.8gnb, 20-3
197910150nyjnyj240128174min3301071421979710/15/1979.417-6.8nyj, 14-7
200611130carcar440137163tam26010217320061011/13/2006.375-6.1car, 24-10
199411210otioti190147218nyg37017122019941211/21/1994.200-6.0nyg, 13-10
200611060seasea430149177rai250921482006911/6/2006.429-6.0sea, 16-0
199710270miamia520143124chi0701011991997910/27/1997.357-5.6chi, 36-33
197311260sfosfo370180232gnb35213819819731111/26/1973.350-5.6sfo, 20-6
199311290cltclt370154233sdg46016419519931311/29/1993.350-5.5sdg, 31-0
198312120tamtam2120212345gnb77039640719831512/12/1983.321-5.1gnb, 12-9
201211120pitpit530191164kan17013324020121011/12/2012.375-5.0pit, 16-13
200911160clecle17078209rav44020615420091011/16/2009.313-4.9rav, 16-0
200712100atlatl390171272nor57026627920071412/10/2007.333-4.8nor, 34-14
199910250pitpit33011793atl150741531999710/25/1999.333-4.6pit, 13-9
201211050nornor250190216phi3401201552012911/5/2012.357-4.4nor, 28-13
198110190detdet240118126chi150891331981710/19/1981.250-4.3det, 48-17
198011240nornor0110181341ram74029422819801211/24/1980.318-4.3ram, 27-7
197711210waswas540126132gnb2708315219771011/21/1977.389-4.2was, 10-9
199510230nwenwe15069160buf510136951995810/23/1995.500-4.2nwe, 27-14
200611270seasea640203219gnb46018525220061211/27/2006.500-4.2sea, 34-24
201112050jaxjax380138200sdg47024927520111312/5/2011.318-4.0sdg, 38-14
200412060seasea650239223dal47019328920041312/6/2004.455-3.6dal, 43-39
198711020daldal330135134nyg150991421987711/2/1987.333-3.5dal, 33-24
200711120seasea440167141sfo26010418620071011/12/2007.375-3.5sea, 24-0
199010220clecle24098139cin4201541531990710/22/1990.500-3.3cin, 34-13
201110310kankan330105150sdg4201411362011810/31/2011.583-3.3kan, 23-20
197811060cltclt360120230was72018613519781011/6/1978.556-3.3clt, 21-17
200711190denden450153238oti63017815220071111/19/2007.556-3.3den, 34-20
197012070otioti371177249cle56023623619701212/7/1970.386-3.3cle, 21-10
200511210gnbgnb270201184min45015422820051111/21/2005.333-3.2min, 20-17
200512190ravrav490171253gnb310025525520051512/19/2005.269-3.2rav, 48-3
200512120atlatl750277237nor39018329520051412/12/2005.417-3.0atl, 36-17
200211180ramram450194196chi27018223220021111/18/2002.333-2.9ram, 21-16
199410170denden140108146kan32090801994710/17/1994.400-2.8kan, 31-28
197211130sdgsdg251152203cle5301411341972911/13/1972.469-2.8cle, 21-17
197710310crdcrd330124122nyg330911261977710/31/1977.500-2.8crd, 28-0
200512260nyjnyj3110189298nwe95032228920051612/26/2005.429-2.7nwe, 31-21
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Most Pick Sixes Thrown in NFL History

To pick six, or not to pick six

To pick six, or not to pick six.

Three years ago to the day, I crunched the numbers to see which quarterbacks had thrown the most pick sixes thrown in NFL history. With three more years of data, a robust play-by-play database, and, ya know, Matt Schaub, I figured it was time for an update. In case you haven’t noticed, Schaub became the first player to ever throw pick sixes (picks six?) in four straight games, and then on Sunday, T.J. Yates got the Texans into the record books as Houston had an interception returned for a touchdown in five straight games. But I thought it would be fun to look at the career leaders in pick sixes (and remind you that I discussed the rising rate of interception scores in the offseason).

Nobody has exact pick six data available, but we can do a reasonably job of answering the question of who has had the most passes returned for touchdowns in league history. That’s because we have:

  • Scoring logs for all scores, showing all interceptions returned for a touchdown, dating back to 1940
  • Play-by-play logs for all players dating back to 1999. So we have all the information we need from that point through week six of the 2013 season.
  • Individual game logs for all players, showing all interceptions thrown dating back to 1960.

For all pick sixes thrown since 1999, we have the precise data.  For any game from 1960 to 1998, we can do a very good job approximating who threw the pick-six. Most of the time, only one quarterback will throw an interception in any given team game. Fifty years from now, if you look at this box score from week six, you will be able to know for sure that Peyton Manning threw the interception that Paul Posluszny returned for a touchdown. The Broncos threw just one interception, and it was by Manning, so Manning must have thrown the pick-six. It doesn’t matter if the team has thrown five interceptions, as long as all were thrown by the same guy, such as Keith Null against the Titans in 2009.

The problem games are the ones where multiple players, usually quarterbacks, threw interceptions. For example, the record for defensive interception returns for touchdowns in a game is four, set by the Seattle Seahawks in 1984 against Kansas City. If you look at the boxscore, you’ll see that Todd Blackledge threw three interceptions, Bill Kenney threw two, and Sandy Osiecki added a sixth. So what do we do? Award Blackledge 2 pick sixes, Kenney 1.33, and Osiecky 0.67; obviously this isn’t perfect, but over the course of a player’s career, I think this will work well as an approximation. Because I’m running low on time, I’m going to just ignore pre-1960 data, although you could piece it together at the old link since obviously nothing has changed.

The table below includes all players who threw at least five pick sixes since 1960. It includes all postseason data, and unsurprisingly, Brett Favre is the career leader. He threw 10,960 career passes (including the playoffs), so he only threw a pick six on 0.32% of his passes (the leader in that category is Chris Redman, who threw a pick six once every 100 passes). Favre threw 366 career interceptions (again, including the playoffs), so he threw a pick six on “only” 9.6% of his interceptions. If you’re curious, Aaron Rodgers has thrown just one pick six in his entire career. That gives him a rate 0.032 pick sixes per pass attempt, the lowest among all passes with 1500 attempts since 1960.
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Bradford looks to check down

Bradford looks to check down.

As a rookie, Sam Bradford ranked last in the league in yards per completion. That year, he averaged 9.92 YPC, 1.61 yards per completion lower than the league average of 11.53. In his second and third years — 2011 and 2012 — Bradford was a little better in that metric, but he still finished 0.65 and 0.34 yards per completion below league average in those seasons. So far in 2013, Bradford has earned his reputation as a checkdown artist: with a 10.21 YPC average, he’s averaged 1.43 fewer yards per completion than the average quarterback.

If you take a weighted average (based on his number of completions in each season), Bradford has been 0.98 yards per completion below league average over the course of his 980 career completed passes. In August, I noted that the Rams have experienced constant turnover at offensive coordinator and wide receiver since Bradford entered the league. This year, with Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and developing talents like Chris Givens, expectations were high for Bradford. So far, we’ve seen more of the same from Bradford, which means lots of checkdowns and few big plays.

For his career, Bradford has averaged just 10.68 yards per completion. The table below shows the 164 quarterbacks since 1950 to complete at least 850 passes. The far right column represents the difference between each quarterback’s career yards per completion average minus the league average (calculated on a weighted-average basis for each quarterback based on his number of completions in each season) rate. As it turns out, Bradford ranks in the “top five” when it comes to the worst era-adjusted yards per completion averages.
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Finding Comparables For Mike Glennon

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy.

It’s official in Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman is out and Mike Glennon is in at starting quarterback. But what are the odds that Glennon actually plays well this year? I’m not very optimistic for a couple of reasons.

Vincent Jackson is a star, but he’s dealing with injuries to his ribs. On 30 passes aimed at Jackson this year, Freeman has picked up 265 yards, an average of 8.83 yards per attempt. On 23 targets to Mike Williams, Freeman has averaged 5.5 yards per pass. On his other 38 targets, Freeman’s averaged just 4.7 yards per pass. Right now, there simply aren’t enough weapons in Tampa Bay, as the Bucs desperately could use a receiving tight end and a slot receiver.

But here’s another reason not to expect much from Glennon. Since 1978, there are 30 rookie quarterbacks who are “similar” to Glennon in that they met the following three criteria:

  • Were not first round picks
  • Did not start in week 1 (i.e., they didn’t pull a Russell Wilson and win the job with a great training camp — they generally became the starter because the man in front of them was ineffective); and
  • Started at least four games as a rookie.

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