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The Eagles Are 3-0 But In Unusual Fashion

Why are we surprised that the Eagles are winning ugly?

Why are we surprised that the Eagles are winning ugly?

Last week, Neil Paine wrote that while the Eagles were 2-0, it was not all sunshine and rainbows in Philadelphia. The Eagles posted Game Scripts of -7.1 against Jacksonville and -4.8 against Indianapolis; based on Neil’s research, the Eagles had the worst Game Scripts of any team to start 0-2 since at least 1978.

Against Washington in week 3, the Eagles fell behind 17-7 before coming from behind and again emerging victorious. As a result — and after trailing the Jags 17-0 and the Colts 20-6 — Philadelphia became the first team since at least 1940 to start a season 3-0 despite trailing by at least 10 points in each game.

In fact, only three teams had ever overcome a deficit of a touchdown or greater in each of their first three games: the 2000 Rams, the 2000 Jets, and the 1960 Giants. Those teams finished the season 10-6, 9-7, and 6-4-2 respectively, which means they went just 16-17-2 the rest of the season after starting 9-0.

In general, teams that have started 3-0 despite constantly falling behind have not been as successful over the rest of the season as other 3-0 teams. In fact, if you add up the worst margin for each 3-0 team in each game, 25 teams have trailed by an “aggregate” of 21+ points in those three games. On average, those teams won just 53.5% of the remainder of their games. [click to continue…]

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Unstable Divisions

The AFC East was a very stable division over the past two years. The Patriots won 12 games in 2012 and 12 more in 2013. The Bills, with six wins in 2013, also repeated their 2012 win total. Miami won 7 games in 2012, and then 8 last year. And the Jets followed up a 6-10 season in 2012 with an 8-8 season last year. That’s about as stable as a division can get. The four teams saw their win totals move by an aggregate of just three wins, making the 2012-2013 AFC East the most stable division since realignment.

On the other end of the spectrum: the NFC South. The Falcons dropped from 13 wins in 2012 to just four last year. The Panthers jumped from 7 wins in 2012 to 12 last year, and it didn’t even take Bill Parcells to do it. New Orleans also won seven games in 2012, but jumped to 12 wins in 2013. The team that saw the least movement in the NFC South last year was Tampa Bay, but the Bucs still fell from 7 wins to 4 wins, matching the total movement by all AFC East teams. As a group, NFC South teams had a change of 21 wins from 2012 to 2013, the most of any division since realignment.

That’s hardly new for the NFC South, or for that matter, the AFC East. Since realignment, the NFC South has easily been the league’s most unstable division: the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, and Panthers have seen their win totals fluctuate by an average total of 18.8 wins per year, beginning with the 2002-2003 seasons. The AFC East has been incredibly stable: no team has ever finished with more wins than New England, while the Bills have finished last or tied for last eight times since realignment. As a result, the average movement among AFC East teams — in the aggregate — has been just 6.3 wins.

Rk
Division
Change in Wins/Yr
Change # Wins/Tm Yr
1NFC South15.73.9
2NFC North13.33.3
3AFC West11.93.3
4AFC North11.93.0
5AFC South11.72.9
6NFC East11.32.8
7NFC West10.82.7
8AFC East10.82.7

[click to continue…]

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Great Offenses and Missing the Playoffs

A common sight on any fall Sunday in the early '00s.

A common sight on any fall Sunday in the early '00s.

From 2002 to 2005, Peyton Manning was the best quarterback in the NFL, at least statistically, by a wide margin. But the #2 quarterback in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt was Trent Green, and there was a wide gap between Green and all other quarterbacks not named Manning.  Over that same period, Tony Gonzalez led all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. And the Chiefs rushed for 34 more touchdowns than any other team, in addition to ranking third in rushing yards and fourth in yards per carry.

Kansas City ranked 4th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt in 2002, 1st in 2003, 3rd in 2004, and 2nd in 2005.  In terms of Adjusted Yards per Carry, the Chiefs were 2nd in 2002, 3rd in 2003, 1st in 2004, and 3rd in 2005. That’s an incredible streak of not just dominance, but balanced dominance. And Kansas City missed the playoffs in three of those four years! (pours one out for Jason Lisk).

On Monday, we looked at some great defenses that missed the playoffs. Today, a look at some of the best offenses to stay home for the winter. And in the last 15 years, the 2002 Chiefs, 2004 Chiefs, and 2005 Chiefs are the only teams to rank in the top five in both ANY/A and AYPC and miss the playoffs.

What other teams since the merger met those criteria? [click to continue…]

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Great Defenses and Missing the Playoffs

Lewis finds out his quarterback is Kyle Boller

Lewis finds out his quarterback is Kyle Boller.

Ten years ago, the teams with three of the four best defenses in football missed the playoffs. The Buffalo Bills ranked 1st in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt allowed and 2nd in Adjusted Yards per Carry allowed. That year, Sam Adams, Takeo Spikes, Terrence McGee, and Nate Clements made the Pro Bowl, while Aaron Schobel had 8 sacks and London Fletcher was London Fletcher but younger. The team ranked 1st in DVOA by a good margin, but finished 9-7, narrowly missing the playoffs.

That year, Baltimore ranked 4th in ANY/A allowed, 3rd in AYPC allowed, and 2nd in DVOA. The Ravens weren’t quite as good on defense as the ’00 or ’06 iterations, but still had Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, Adalius Thomas, Chris McAlister, and Ed Reed (not to mention a 37-year-old Deion Sanders). Of course, this was the Ravens team that was one of the most one-sided team in NFL history. Baltimore also finished 9-7 in a year where six AFC teams won double-digit games.

Over in the NFC, Washington’s defense ranked 1st in Adjusted YPC and 3rd in ANY/A in Joe Gibbs’ first season back in D.C. Marcus Washington was the team’s only Pro Bowler, but the defense featured a rookie Sean Taylor, Ryan Clark, Shawn Springs, Antonio Pierce, and Cornelius Griffin. Despite ranking 4th in defensive DVOA, the team won just six games.

So why today are we looking at these three teams, nearly ten years later? It’s not to remind you that Drew Bledsoe, Kyle Boller, and Mark Brunell failed to guide those teams to the playoffs. As it turns out, these are the last three teams to finish in the top five in both ANY/A allowed and AYPC allowed and still miss the playoffs. In fact, since 1970, just nine other teams have managed to pull off that feat.

  • In 2002, Miami ranked 5th in both ANY/A and AYPC allowed, while the Panthers ranked 4th in both categories. Carolina was a year away from a Super Bowl appearance, while the Dolphins were nearing the end of their Jason Taylor-Zach Thomas-Sam Madison run.
  • In 1999, a year before The Year, the Ravens ranked 2nd in both metrics but finished just 8-8.
  • You know all about the 1991 Eagles, so of course they are on this list.
  • The 1987 Giants, a year after winning the Super Bowl, still produced a Super Bowl caliber defense behind Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Pepper Johnson, and Harry Carson, but the team’s offensive line (3rd most sacks allowed, 2nd worst YPC average) torpedoed the offense.
  • In 1978, a year before nearly carrying the team to the Super Bowl, Lee Roy Selmon and Dave Pear helped Tampa Bay rank 1st in AYPC allowed and 3rd in ANY/A allowed. But a miserable offense led to a losing record in the franchise’s third season.
  • The 1974 Packers ranked 5th in both categories. The defense sent Ted Hendricks, Willie Buchanon, and Ken Ellis to the Pro Bowl, but if you think this is just a thinly-veiled reason to bring up John Hadl, you are a regular reader of this blog.

Since 2004, six teams have ranked 1st or 2nd in AYPC allowed but missed the playoffs. Two of those seasons occurred last year, with the Jets and Cardinals, respectively. The 2006 and 2007 Vikings also join that list, along with the 2007 Ravens (a year after a magnificent season) and the 2010 49ers (a year before a magnificent season).

Having a dominant pass defense is even more likely to send a team to the playoffs. Since 2004, only one team — the 2012 Bears — ranked 1st in ANY/A allowed but missed the playoffs. The 2009 Bills are the only team to rank 2nd in ANY/A allowed and miss the playoffs, while the 2013 Bills, 2010 Chargers, and ’05 Jets are the only teams since ’04 to rank 3rd in ANY/A allowed and still fail to make it to January.

Too Long; Didn’t Read

  • The 2004 season was kind of crazy.
  • Since 2002, 24 teams have ranked in the top five in both pass defense and rush defense; five of those teams missed the playoffs, although the last 16 teams pull off this feat have made the postseason.
  • Of the 36 teams to rank in the top 3 in Adjusted Yards per Carry allowed since 2002, only 19 of those teams made the playoffs. Although it’s worth noting that eight of the 17 teams to miss the playoffs out of this group ranked 20th or worse in ANY/A allowed.
  • 28 of the 36 teams to rank in the top 3 in ANY/A allowed made the playoffs.
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Lynch leads the league in Skittles eaten over average

Lynch leads the league in Skittles eaten over average.

Over the last three years, no player has recorded more carries than Marshawn Lynch. But while Lynch’s 901 carries may lead the league, that’s a pretty low number, at least in modern history. The 2011-2013 seasons very nearly became the first three-year period where no running back had 900 carries since 1989 to 1991, which was essentially the post-Eric Dickerson/pre-stud running back era. This jives with what we’ve seen on a broader level, in that the NFL is both veering away from rushing and towards running back committees, two factors which have combined to torpedo running back value.

The table below shows the leader in rush attempts for every three year period beginning with the AFL-NFL merger. Here’s how to lead the Lynch line: From 2011 to 2013, Lynch, who was 27 in 2013, led the NFL in carries. Over that period, he rushed 901 times for 4,051 yards, a 4.50 yards per carry average. [click to continue…]

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The Evolution of Quarterbacks

Get your roll on 'Pepp

Get your roll on 'Pepp.

With the NFL draft approaching, you’ll hear a lot of statements about how the quarterback position is changing. Mobile quarterbacks are now “in”, which is a good thing for Johnny Manziel. A 6’4 frame is no longer required, which is a good thing for… well, Manziel, and negates some of the value of a player like Blake Bortles or Tom Savage. And, heck, do you even need to get a quarterback in the first round? If Teddy Bridgewater falls to the second round, how much of an outlier does that make him? What about say, Aaron Murray, who is both short and expected to be a late round pick?

I can’t tell you how any of the prospects in this year’s draft will turn out, but I can walk you through how the quarterback position has changed over the course of NFL history.

Methodology

For all three variables, I will be using the same methodology to measure “league average” in each season.  Each player in each year gets credit for his percentage of league-wide pass attempts in the season multiplied by his value in each variable.  For example, when calculating the 2013 league average, Peyton Manning’s [rushing numbers, height, draft position] was worth 3.6% of the league average, while in 1958, Johnny Unitas’s [rushing, height, draft position] was worth 6.7% of the league average. This gives us a weighted average for each variable, weighted by the number of pass attempts by that quarterback. [click to continue…]

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Chris Berman has already copyrighted Teddy 'Bridge over troubled' Water.

Chris Berman has already copyrighted Teddy 'Bridge over troubled' Water.

Sometimes, it’s hard to believe that it’s 2014. With draft season now in full gear, I wanted to take a few minutes and look at the stats of the top college quarterbacks from last year. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done. I couldn’t find a site that presented a full list of all college quarterback stats, including sacks, which is, of course, insane.

College football records sacks as rushing plays for the offense; as a result, knowing how many sacks Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater took last year is not that easy to find. So here’s what I did:

1) Using team game log data, I found the number of sacks for each defense in each game.

2) Next, I recorded the percentage of team pass attempts recorded by each quarterback for his offense in each game (usually close to 100%).

3) I synched up these two sets of data, and multiplied each quarterback’s percentage of team pass attempts by the number of sacks by his opponent’s defense in that game.

That provided me with some useful estimated sack data. From there, I calculated each quarterback’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average, which is simply (Gross_passing_yards + 20*PassTDs – 45*INTs – Estimated_sack_yards_lost) / (Pass_attempts + Estimated_sacks). I did this for the 140 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts in the FBS (sorry, Jimmy Garoppolo fans) in 2013.

Since the number of pass attempts vary wildly at the college level, I also calculated a Value Over Average statistic. The 140 quarterbacks had an average ANY/A of 6.44, so the Value metric (which is what the table is sorted by) is simply (ANY/A – 6.44) * (Pass_attempts + Estimated_sacks). Here’s how to read Bridegwater’s line, the Louisville quarterback who many believe will be the first quarterback selected in the draft.

Bridgewater provided the 5th most passing value by this formula, completing 303 of 427 passes for 3,970 yards with 31 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He took 25.5 sacks and lost 185 yards, and had a sack rate of 6% (if I included the percent sign, the table would not sort correctly). Bridgewater also averaged 13.1 yards per completion and had a 9.34 ANY/A average, which combined with his number of dropbacks, means he added 1,310 adjusted net yards of value over average. By default, the table below only shows the top 25, but you can sort and/or search to find each of the 140 quarterbacks (and you can change the number of quarterbacks displayed via the dropdown box to the left). [click to continue…]

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2013 Team NY/A and ANY/A Differential Data

Just a quick data dump here for those inquiring minds. Here are the leaders in NY/A differential, which is simply Net Yards per Attempt (which incorporates sack data) for each team minus the Net Yards per Attempt allowed by that team. Seattle ranks #1 in NY/A differential, as Russell Wilson‘s offense has averaged 6.97 NY/A (which ranks 6th) and the defense has allowed just 4.85 NY/A (which ranks first), giving them a +2.13 NY/A differential.

Rk
Tm
NY/A
NY/A Rk
NY/A A
NY/A A Rk
NY/A Diff
1Seattle Seahawks6.9764.8512.13
2Cincinnati Bengals6.7295.0921.63
3Denver Broncos7.8316.22171.61
4New Orleans Saints7.1545.5871.56
5Arizona Cardinals6.51115.5560.96
6Philadelphia Eagles7.4236.56220.86
7San Francisco 49ers6.53105.6890.86
8Pittsburgh Steelers6.39125.88100.51
9San Diego Chargers7.5427.1310.44
10Carolina Panthers5.9205.550.39
11Detroit Lions6.8286.53200.29
12New York Giants5.91195.6380.28
13Green Bay Packers6.9476.79250.15
14Buffalo Bills5.44295.2930.15
15New England Patriots6.12156110.12
16Chicago Bears7.0356.93270.1
17Cleveland Browns5.53275.4940.05
18Tennessee Titans6.13146.2215-0.08
19Indianapolis Colts6.07166.4219-0.35
20Houston Texans5.65256.0513-0.4
21Kansas City Chiefs5.69246.214-0.51
22Miami Dolphins5.47286.0312-0.56
23Dallas Cowboys6.37136.9829-0.62
24New York Jets5.56266.318-0.73
25Baltimore Ravens5.38306.2216-0.84
26Minnesota Vikings5.81216.6723-0.86
27St. Louis Rams5.77226.7524-0.98
28Oakland Raiders5.93186.9728-1.04
29Atlanta Falcons6.04177.1132-1.08
30Washington Redskins5.74237.0830-1.35
31Jacksonville Jaguars5.36316.8126-1.45
32Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.03326.5421-1.51

[click to continue…]

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Presented below, without comment, is a table of every matchup featuring Tom Brady & Peyton Manning as the starting quarterbacks. Enjoy:

Date
Home Team
Favorite
Patriots Passing
Colts/Broncos Passing
Advantage
Outcome
2001-09-30NWECLT -11.513-23, 159 yds, 0 TD, 0 Int, 6.63 ANYPA25-43, 240 yds, 1 TD, 3 Int, 2.72 ANYPA+3.91, NWE44-13, NWE
2001-10-21CLTCLT -10.517-21, 262 yds, 4 TD, 0 Int, 16.29 ANYPA22-34, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 8.55 ANYPA+7.73, NWE38-17, NWE
2003-11-30CLTCLT -3.526-35, 226 yds, 2 TD, 2 Int, 4.76 ANYPA29-48, 272 yds, 4 TD, 1 Int, 6.14 ANYPA+1.38, CLT38-34, NWE
2004-01-18 (C)NWENWE -3.522-37, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5.73 ANYPA23-47, 208 yds, 1 TD, 4 Int, 0.94 ANYPA+4.79, NWE24-14, NWE
2004-09-09NWENWE -326-38, 320 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 8.38 ANYPA16-29, 244 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 7.97 ANYPA+0.41, NWE27-24, NWE
2005-01-16 (D)NWENWE -118-27, 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 4.50 ANYPA27-42, 230 yds, 0 TD, 1 Int, 4.30 ANYPA+0.20, NWE20-3, NWE
2005-11-07NWECLT -325-40, 254 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 7.48 ANYPA28-37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 9.08 ANYPA+1.60, CLT40-21, CLT
2006-11-05NWENWE -2.520-35, 201 yds, 0 TD, 4 Int, 0.60 ANYPA20-36, 301 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 7.59 ANYPA+6.99, CLT27-20, CLT
2007-01-21 (C)CLTCLT -321-34, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5.74 ANYPA27-47, 330 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 6.10 ANYPA+0.36, CLT38-34, CLT
2007-11-04CLTNWE -521-32, 237 yds, 3 TD, 2 Int, 6.09 ANYPA16-27, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 6.17 ANYPA+0.08, CLT24-20, NWE
2009-11-15CLTCLT -1.529-42, 364 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 8.61 ANYPA28-44, 316 yds, 4 TD, 2 Int, 6.80 ANYPA+1.81, NWE35-34, CLT
2010-11-21NWENWE -4.519-25, 178 yds, 2 TD, 0 Int, 8.38 ANYPA38-52, 396 yds, 4 TD, 3 Int, 6.56 ANYPA+1.83, NWE31-28, NWE
2012-10-07NWENWE -623-31, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 6.09 ANYPA31-44, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 8.35 ANYPA+2.26, DEN31-21, NWE
2013-11-24NWEDEN -2.534-50, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 7.25 ANYPA19-36, 132 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 3.34 ANYPA+3.90, NWE34-31, NWE
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(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.)

Just a quick hit of a post to let you know that tonight’s MNF matchup between the 0-6 Giants and the 1-4 Vikings is, in fact, the worst ever this late in the season by combined winning percentage:

game_id
home
W
L
T
PF
PA
road
W
L
T
PF
PA
year_id
week_num
game_date
comb_wpct
comb_pt_diff
winner
201310210nygnyg060103209min1401251582013710/21/2013.091-12.6NULL
197512150sdgsdg1110148282nyj39022137819751312/15/1975.167-12.1sdg, 24-16
199411210otioti190147218nyg37017122019941211/21/1994.200-6.0nyg, 13-10
197211060nwenwe25092220clt160941451972811/6/1972.214-12.8clt, 24-17
197011020pitpit2407194cin150931561970711/2/1970.250-7.2pit, 21-10
198110190detdet240118126chi150891331981710/19/1981.250-4.3det, 48-17
199710200cltclt06088155buf3301221591997810/20/1997.250-8.7buf, 9-6
201211260phiphi370162252car28018424320121211/26/2012.250-7.5car, 30-22
200001030atlatl4110251351sfo41102664191999171/3/2000.267-8.4atl, 34-29
200512190ravrav490171253gnb310025525520051512/19/2005.269-3.2rav, 48-3
198310240crdcrd250137218nyg2501261561983810/24/1983.286-7.9tie (20-20)
201112120seasea570216246ram210014029620111412/12/2011.292-7.8sea, 30-13
201011290crdcrd370188292sfo37016021920101211/29/2010.300-8.2sfo, 27-6
200911160clecle17078209rav44020615420091011/16/2009.313-4.9rav, 16-0
198011240nornor0110181341ram74029422819801211/24/1980.318-4.3ram, 27-7
201112050jaxjax380138200sdg47024927520111312/5/2011.318-4.0sdg, 38-14
198312120tamtam2120212345gnb77039640719831512/12/1983.321-5.1gnb, 12-9
198711020daldal330135134nyg150991421987711/2/1987.333-3.5dal, 33-24
199910250pitpit33011793atl150741531999710/25/1999.333-4.6pit, 13-9
200211180ramram450194196chi27018223220021111/18/2002.333-2.9ram, 21-16
200511210gnbgnb270201184min45015422820051111/21/2005.333-3.2min, 20-17
200012040nwenwe390192253kan57028327420001412/4/2000.333-2.2nwe, 30-24
200412130otioti480231294kan48034132620041412/13/2004.333-2.0kan, 49-38
200712100atlatl390171272nor57026627920071412/10/2007.333-4.8nor, 34-14
199112090miamia760256275cin211021137419911512/9/1991.346-7.0mia, 37-13
197311260sfosfo370180232gnb35213819819731111/26/1973.350-5.6sfo, 20-6
197811130cincin190110184rai64019316419781111/13/1978.350-2.3rai, 34-21
200711260pitpit730269145mia010018327420071211/26/2007.350+1.7pit, 3-0
199311290cltclt370154233sdg46016419519931311/29/1993.350-5.5sdg, 31-0
198010270nyjnyj160114164mia430991441980810/27/1980.357-6.8nyj, 17-14
199710270miamia520143124chi0701011991997910/27/1997.357-5.6chi, 36-33
199811020phiphi16079162dal4301741151998911/2/1998.357-1.7dal, 34-0
201211050nornor250190216phi3401201552012911/5/2012.357-4.4nor, 28-13
198311070detdet450202188nyg26116621419831011/7/1983.361-1.9det, 15-9
199111250ramram380181256sfo56021815519911311/25/1991.364-0.5sfo, 33-10
199211300seasea110073218den74017520719921311/30/1992.364-8.0sea, 16-13
200812010htxhtx470252293jax47022424020081312/1/2008.364-2.6htx, 30-17
197111150sdgsdg350150179crd3501351491971911/15/1971.375-2.7sdg, 20-17
197910290atlatl350160181sea3501721811979910/29/1979.375-1.9sea, 31-28
200611130carcar440137163tam26010217320061011/13/2006.375-6.1car, 24-10
200711120seasea440167141sfo26010418620071011/12/2007.375-3.5sea, 24-0
201211120pitpit530191164kan17013324020121011/12/2012.375-5.0pit, 16-13
199010290pitpit340109128ram2401641731990810/29/1990.385-2.2pit, 41-10
201212170otioti490271386nyj67024530620121512/17/2012.385-6.8oti, 14-10
197012070otioti371177249cle56023623619701212/7/1970.386-3.3cle, 21-10
197711210waswas540126132gnb2708315219771011/21/1977.389-4.2was, 10-9
200311170sfosfo450202152pit36017621720031111/17/2003.389+0.5sfo, 30-14
201011220sdgsdg450239197den36020325220101111/22/2010.389-0.4sdg, 35-14
199410170denden140108146kan32090801994710/17/1994.400-2.8kan, 31-28
199911290sfosfo370163281gnb55019220919991211/29/1999.400-6.8gnb, 20-3

It is not, however, the worst by combined PPG margin. That honor belongs to this 1972 game between the 2-5 Patriots and the 1-6 Colts (Baltimore ended up winning 24-17):

game_id
home
W
L
T
PF
PA
road
W
L
T
PF
PA
year_id
week_num
game_date
comb_wpct
comb_pt_diff
winner
197211060nwenwe25092220clt160941451972811/6/1972.214-12.8clt, 24-17
201310210nygnyg060103209min1401251582013710/21/2013.091-12.6NULL
197512150sdgsdg1110148282nyj39022137819751312/15/1975.167-12.1sdg, 24-16
199710200cltclt06088155buf3301221591997810/20/1997.250-8.7buf, 9-6
200001030atlatl4110251351sfo41102664191999171/3/2000.267-8.4atl, 34-29
201011290crdcrd370188292sfo37016021920101211/29/2010.300-8.2sfo, 27-6
199211300seasea110073218den74017520719921311/30/1992.364-8.0sea, 16-13
198310240crdcrd250137218nyg2501261561983810/24/1983.286-7.9tie (20-20)
201112120seasea570216246ram210014029620111412/12/2011.292-7.8sea, 30-13
201211260phiphi370162252car28018424320121211/26/2012.250-7.5car, 30-22
197011020pitpit2407194cin150931561970711/2/1970.250-7.2pit, 21-10
199112090miamia760256275cin211021137419911512/9/1991.346-7.0mia, 37-13
198010270nyjnyj160114164mia430991441980810/27/1980.357-6.8nyj, 17-14
201212170otioti490271386nyj67024530620121512/17/2012.385-6.8oti, 14-10
199911290sfosfo370163281gnb55019220919991211/29/1999.400-6.8gnb, 20-3
197910150nyjnyj240128174min3301071421979710/15/1979.417-6.8nyj, 14-7
200611130carcar440137163tam26010217320061011/13/2006.375-6.1car, 24-10
199411210otioti190147218nyg37017122019941211/21/1994.200-6.0nyg, 13-10
200611060seasea430149177rai250921482006911/6/2006.429-6.0sea, 16-0
199710270miamia520143124chi0701011991997910/27/1997.357-5.6chi, 36-33
197311260sfosfo370180232gnb35213819819731111/26/1973.350-5.6sfo, 20-6
199311290cltclt370154233sdg46016419519931311/29/1993.350-5.5sdg, 31-0
198312120tamtam2120212345gnb77039640719831512/12/1983.321-5.1gnb, 12-9
201211120pitpit530191164kan17013324020121011/12/2012.375-5.0pit, 16-13
200911160clecle17078209rav44020615420091011/16/2009.313-4.9rav, 16-0
200712100atlatl390171272nor57026627920071412/10/2007.333-4.8nor, 34-14
199910250pitpit33011793atl150741531999710/25/1999.333-4.6pit, 13-9
201211050nornor250190216phi3401201552012911/5/2012.357-4.4nor, 28-13
198110190detdet240118126chi150891331981710/19/1981.250-4.3det, 48-17
198011240nornor0110181341ram74029422819801211/24/1980.318-4.3ram, 27-7
197711210waswas540126132gnb2708315219771011/21/1977.389-4.2was, 10-9
199510230nwenwe15069160buf510136951995810/23/1995.500-4.2nwe, 27-14
200611270seasea640203219gnb46018525220061211/27/2006.500-4.2sea, 34-24
201112050jaxjax380138200sdg47024927520111312/5/2011.318-4.0sdg, 38-14
200412060seasea650239223dal47019328920041312/6/2004.455-3.6dal, 43-39
198711020daldal330135134nyg150991421987711/2/1987.333-3.5dal, 33-24
200711120seasea440167141sfo26010418620071011/12/2007.375-3.5sea, 24-0
199010220clecle24098139cin4201541531990710/22/1990.500-3.3cin, 34-13
201110310kankan330105150sdg4201411362011810/31/2011.583-3.3kan, 23-20
197811060cltclt360120230was72018613519781011/6/1978.556-3.3clt, 21-17
200711190denden450153238oti63017815220071111/19/2007.556-3.3den, 34-20
197012070otioti371177249cle56023623619701212/7/1970.386-3.3cle, 21-10
200511210gnbgnb270201184min45015422820051111/21/2005.333-3.2min, 20-17
200512190ravrav490171253gnb310025525520051512/19/2005.269-3.2rav, 48-3
200512120atlatl750277237nor39018329520051412/12/2005.417-3.0atl, 36-17
200211180ramram450194196chi27018223220021111/18/2002.333-2.9ram, 21-16
199410170denden140108146kan32090801994710/17/1994.400-2.8kan, 31-28
197211130sdgsdg251152203cle5301411341972911/13/1972.469-2.8cle, 21-17
197710310crdcrd330124122nyg330911261977710/31/1977.500-2.8crd, 28-0
200512260nyjnyj3110189298nwe95032228920051612/26/2005.429-2.7nwe, 31-21
{ 9 comments }

Most Pick Sixes Thrown in NFL History

To pick six, or not to pick six

To pick six, or not to pick six.

Three years ago to the day, I crunched the numbers to see which quarterbacks had thrown the most pick sixes thrown in NFL history. With three more years of data, a robust play-by-play database, and, ya know, Matt Schaub, I figured it was time for an update. In case you haven’t noticed, Schaub became the first player to ever throw pick sixes (picks six?) in four straight games, and then on Sunday, T.J. Yates got the Texans into the record books as Houston had an interception returned for a touchdown in five straight games. But I thought it would be fun to look at the career leaders in pick sixes (and remind you that I discussed the rising rate of interception scores in the offseason).

Nobody has exact pick six data available, but we can do a reasonably job of answering the question of who has had the most passes returned for touchdowns in league history. That’s because we have:

  • Scoring logs for all scores, showing all interceptions returned for a touchdown, dating back to 1940
  • Play-by-play logs for all players dating back to 1999. So we have all the information we need from that point through week six of the 2013 season.
  • Individual game logs for all players, showing all interceptions thrown dating back to 1960.

For all pick sixes thrown since 1999, we have the precise data.  For any game from 1960 to 1998, we can do a very good job approximating who threw the pick-six. Most of the time, only one quarterback will throw an interception in any given team game. Fifty years from now, if you look at this box score from week six, you will be able to know for sure that Peyton Manning threw the interception that Paul Posluszny returned for a touchdown. The Broncos threw just one interception, and it was by Manning, so Manning must have thrown the pick-six. It doesn’t matter if the team has thrown five interceptions, as long as all were thrown by the same guy, such as Keith Null against the Titans in 2009.

The problem games are the ones where multiple players, usually quarterbacks, threw interceptions. For example, the record for defensive interception returns for touchdowns in a game is four, set by the Seattle Seahawks in 1984 against Kansas City. If you look at the boxscore, you’ll see that Todd Blackledge threw three interceptions, Bill Kenney threw two, and Sandy Osiecki added a sixth. So what do we do? Award Blackledge 2 pick sixes, Kenney 1.33, and Osiecky 0.67; obviously this isn’t perfect, but over the course of a player’s career, I think this will work well as an approximation. Because I’m running low on time, I’m going to just ignore pre-1960 data, although you could piece it together at the old link since obviously nothing has changed.

The table below includes all players who threw at least five pick sixes since 1960. It includes all postseason data, and unsurprisingly, Brett Favre is the career leader. He threw 10,960 career passes (including the playoffs), so he only threw a pick six on 0.32% of his passes (the leader in that category is Chris Redman, who threw a pick six once every 100 passes). Favre threw 366 career interceptions (again, including the playoffs), so he threw a pick six on “only” 9.6% of his interceptions. If you’re curious, Aaron Rodgers has thrown just one pick six in his entire career. That gives him a rate 0.032 pick sixes per pass attempt, the lowest among all passes with 1500 attempts since 1960.
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{ 17 comments }

Bradford looks to check down

Bradford looks to check down.

As a rookie, Sam Bradford ranked last in the league in yards per completion. That year, he averaged 9.92 YPC, 1.61 yards per completion lower than the league average of 11.53. In his second and third years — 2011 and 2012 — Bradford was a little better in that metric, but he still finished 0.65 and 0.34 yards per completion below league average in those seasons. So far in 2013, Bradford has earned his reputation as a checkdown artist: with a 10.21 YPC average, he’s averaged 1.43 fewer yards per completion than the average quarterback.

If you take a weighted average (based on his number of completions in each season), Bradford has been 0.98 yards per completion below league average over the course of his 980 career completed passes. In August, I noted that the Rams have experienced constant turnover at offensive coordinator and wide receiver since Bradford entered the league. This year, with Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and developing talents like Chris Givens, expectations were high for Bradford. So far, we’ve seen more of the same from Bradford, which means lots of checkdowns and few big plays.

For his career, Bradford has averaged just 10.68 yards per completion. The table below shows the 164 quarterbacks since 1950 to complete at least 850 passes. The far right column represents the difference between each quarterback’s career yards per completion average minus the league average (calculated on a weighted-average basis for each quarterback based on his number of completions in each season) rate. As it turns out, Bradford ranks in the “top five” when it comes to the worst era-adjusted yards per completion averages.
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{ 6 comments }

Finding Comparables For Mike Glennon

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy.

It’s official in Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman is out and Mike Glennon is in at starting quarterback. But what are the odds that Glennon actually plays well this year? I’m not very optimistic for a couple of reasons.

Vincent Jackson is a star, but he’s dealing with injuries to his ribs. On 30 passes aimed at Jackson this year, Freeman has picked up 265 yards, an average of 8.83 yards per attempt. On 23 targets to Mike Williams, Freeman has averaged 5.5 yards per pass. On his other 38 targets, Freeman’s averaged just 4.7 yards per pass. Right now, there simply aren’t enough weapons in Tampa Bay, as the Bucs desperately could use a receiving tight end and a slot receiver.

But here’s another reason not to expect much from Glennon. Since 1978, there are 30 rookie quarterbacks who are “similar” to Glennon in that they met the following three criteria:

  • Were not first round picks
  • Did not start in week 1 (i.e., they didn’t pull a Russell Wilson and win the job with a great training camp — they generally became the starter because the man in front of them was ineffective); and
  • Started at least four games as a rookie.

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{ 9 comments }

Receiving WOWY Extended Back to 1950

A WOWY Superstar.

A WOWY Superstar.

Last week, we announced that our True Receiving Yards metric has now been calculated back to 1950, so it’s only fitting that we also compute WOWY (With Or Without You) for all of those receivers as well.

Skip the paragraph after this if you don’t care about the gory mathematical details, and just know that WOWY basically answers the question: “Did a receiver’s quarterbacks play better when they threw a lot to him, or not?”

For the brave souls who care about the calculation: WOWY starts by measuring the difference between a QB’s age-adjusted Relative Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt in a given season and his combined age-adjusted RANY/A in every other season of his career. This is computed as an average for each team’s QB corps, using a combination of QB dropbacks during the season in question and the rest of his career as the weights (the exact formula is: weight = 1/(1/drpbk_year + 1/drpbk_other)). Finally, for each receiver we compute a weighted career average of the QB WOWY scores for the teams he played on, weighted by his True Receiving Yards in each season.

At any rate, the only players who don’t get a WOWY are those who either debuted before 1950, played with a QB who debuted before 1950, or played with a QB who ever threw to a receiver who debuted before 1950. Here are the career WOWY marks (when applicable), alongside TRY, for every 3,000-TRY receiver whose career started in 1950 or later:

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{ 9 comments }

Brady needs to channel another Tom (Flores) this season

Brady needs to channel another Tom (Flores) this season

As Jason Lisk and I wrote about before the season, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger have become something of the poster children so far this year when it comes to veteran QBs working with inexperienced and otherwise less-than-notable receiving groups. And, lo and behold, each has put up career-low RANY/A marks through 2 games. But how do their receiving corps rank relative to those of other teams so far this year, and how do they stack up historically?

To take a stab at answering these questions, I turned to True Receiving Yards. For each player who debuted in 1950 or later, I computed their Weighted Career True Receiving Yards for every year, as of the previous season, to get a sense of how experienced/accomplished they’d been going into the season in question. Then, I calculated a weighted averaged of those numbers for every receiver on a given team, using TRY during the season in question as the weights. For example, here are the 2013 Patriots receivers:

Player
Age
Debut
TRY
% of Tm
At-the-time WCTRY
Weighted Average560.7
Julian Edelman27200913938%615.7
Danny Amendola2820097220%1541.9
Kenbrell Thompkins2520135615%0.0
Shane Vereen2420114412%110.9
Aaron Dobson2220134312%0.0
Michael Hoomanawanui25201051%278.8
James Develin25201341%0.0

The way to read that is: Julian Edelman has accounted for 38 percent of the Pats’ TRY so far. Going into the season, he had a career Weighted TRY of 615.7, so he contributes to 38% of the 2013 Pats’ weighted average with his 615.7 previous career weighted TRY; Danny Amendola contributes to 20% of the team weighted average with his 1541.9 previous career weighted TRY; etc. Multiply each guy’s previous weighted career TRYs by the percentage of the team’s 2013 TRY he contributed, and you get a cumulative weighted average of 560.7 — meaning the average TRY of a 2013 Pats receiver has been gained by a guy who had a previous career weighted TRY of 560.7.

Is that a low number? Well, here are the numbers for all of the 2013 team receiving corps (not including Thursday night’s Eagles-Chiefs tilt), inversely sorted by weighted average (asterisks indicate rookies):

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{ 3 comments }

This guy was pretty good.

This guy was pretty good.

About a month ago, Chase & I developed a stat called True Receiving Yards, which seeks to put all modern & historical receiving seasons on equal footing by adjusting for the league’s passing YPG environment & schedule length, plus the amount the player’s team passed (it’s easier to produce raw receiving stats on a team that throws a lot), with bonuses thrown in for touchdowns and receptions. It’s not perfect — what single stat in a sport with so many moving parts is? — but it does a pretty good job of measuring receiving productivity across different seasons and across teams with passing games that operated at vastly different volumes.

Anyway, today’s post is basically a data dump to let everyone know we’ve extended TRY data back to 1950 (before, it was only computed for post-merger seasons). Here are the new all-time career leaders among players who debuted in 1950 or later (see below for a key to the column abbreviations):
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{ 16 comments }

This guy's 1982 Chargers sure come up a lot when we do lists like these.

This guy's 1982 Chargers sure come up a lot when we do lists like these.

More than a decade ago (on a side note: how is that possible?), Doug wrote a series of player comments highlighting specific topics as they related to the upcoming fantasy football season. I recommend that you read all of them, if for no other reason than the fact you should make it a policy to read everything Doug Drinen ever wrote about football, but today we’re going to focus on the Isaac Bruce comment, which asked/answered the question:

Is this Ram team the biggest fantasy juggernaut of all time?

“This Ram team,” of course, being the 1999, 2000, & 2001 Greatest Show on Turf St. Louis Rams. At the time, Doug determined that those Rams were not, in fact, the best real-life fantasy team ever assembled, by adding up the collective VBD for the entire roster. They ranked tenth since 1970; the top 10 were:

1. 1. 1975 Buffalo Bills – 550 Simpson (281) Ferguson (98) Braxton (83) Chandler (44) Hill (42)

2. 1982 San Diego Chargers – 542 Chandler (190) Fouts (126) Winslow (121) Muncie (92) Brooks (10) Joiner (1)

3. 1994 San Francisco 49ers – 514 Young (208) Rice (140) Watters (98) Jones (67)

4. 1995 Detroit Lions – 478 Mitchell (136) Moore (132) Sanders (121) Perriman (87)

5. 1984 Miami Dolphins – 470 Marino (243) Clayton (145) Duper (76) Nathan (6)

6. 1998 San Francisco 49ers – 467 Young (200) Hearst (137) Owens (81) Rice (46) Stokes (1)

7. 1986 Miami Dolphins – 456 Marino (210) Duper (94) Clayton (76) Hampton (61) Hardy (13)

8. 2000 Minnesota Vikings – 452 Culpepper (170) Moss (123) Smith (87) Carter (70)

9. 1991 Buffalo Bills – 449 Thomas (157) Kelly (143) Reed (80) Lofton (51) McKeller (17)

10. 1999 St. Louis Rams – 435 Faulk (184) Warner (179) Bruce (71)

As an extension of Chase’s recent post on the The Best Skill Position Groups Ever, we thought it might be useful to update Doug’s study in a weekend data-dump post. I modified the methodology a bit — instead of adding up VBD for the entire roster, for each team-season I isolated the team’s leading QB and top 5 non-QBs by fantasy points (using the same point system I employed when ranking the Biggest Fluke Fantasy Seasons Ever). I then added up the total VBD of just those players, to better treat each roster like it was a “real” fantasy team.

Anyway, here are the results. Remember as well that VBD is scaled up to a 16-game season, so as not to short-change dominant fantasy groups from strike-shortened seasons (:cough:1982 Chargers:cough:).
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{ 2 comments }

An interesting tweet from Adam Schefter today: Matt Ryan has 56 regular season wins in his first five seasons, the most in NFL history. Ryan has started 78 games, one of only three quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco) to start at least 75 games in their first five seasons.

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at not just quarterback wins, but quarterback winning percentage (minimum: 15 wins) and wins minus losses (as a compromise between winning percentage and wins). As it turns out, Ryan ranks 1st in wins, 7th in winning percentage, and 1st in wins over losses (or wins over .500) among all quarterbacks to enter the league since 1960.

Quarterback
1st Yr
Win
Loss
Tie
Starts
Win %
W-L
Win Rk
Win % Rk
W-L Rk
Daryle Lamonica19631710180.94416119116
Roger Staubach19692350280.8211871211
Ken Stabler19712051260.7881595319
Tom Brady200148140620.77434441
Jim McMahon198234120460.739222457
Ben Roethlisberger200451200710.71831363
Matt Ryan200856220780.71834171
Kurt Warner199935140490.7142120810
Dan Marino198348210690.69627495
Pat Haden197630131440.69317421013
Tony Romo200627120390.69215561119
Mike Tomczak19862090290.6911951232
Stan Humphries199031140450.68917351313
Philip Rivers200633150480.68818281411
Jay Fiedler199922100320.68812821429
Jack Kemp196029131430.68616481616
John Elway198346211680.684256176
Mark Rypien198842200620.677228187
Joe Flacco200854260800.675282194
Donovan McNabb199943210640.672227207
Doug Flutie19861680240.66781262143
Dave Krieg198119100290.65591032235
Brad Johnson19961580230.65271312350
David Woodley198030161470.64914422422
Jay Schroeder198531170480.64614352522
Elvis Grbac19951690250.6471262650
Vince Ferragamo19791690250.6471262650
Neil O'Donnell199139220610.63917142813
Vince Young200630170470.63813422925
Rex Grossman200319110300.63381033043
Terry Bradshaw197032190510.62713323125
Bernie Kosar198539231630.62716143216
Jim Harbaugh198823140370.6229713335
Michael Vick200131191510.61812353429
Steve Grogan197541260670.61215123519
Joe Namath196537234640.60914173622
Brett Favre199237240610.60713173725
Greg Landry196825162430.6059633835
Marc Bulger200236240600.612193929
Bert Jones197333220550.611283932
Ken Anderson197134230570.59611244132
Jake Delhomme199929200490.5929484235
Steve McNair199529200490.5929484235
Eli Manning200442290710.5921384425
Tony Eason198326180440.5918594543
Chad Pennington200220140340.5886954654
Mark Brunell199531220530.5859354735
Andy Dalton201118130310.58151134857
Eric Hipple198118130310.58151134857
Bobby Hebert198529210500.588485043
Randall Cunningham198530221530.5758425143
Joe Montana197928210490.5717535250
Jim Hart196724183450.5676665354
Boomer Esiason198435270620.5658205443
Jim Kelly198640310710.5639135535
Charley Johnson196226203490.5616595654
Drew Bledsoe199342330750.56985735
Troy Aikman198938300680.5598165843
John Hadl196223184450.5565715957
Virgil Carter196816130290.55231266064
Steve Beuerlein198818150330.54531136164
Gary Danielson197718150330.54531136164
Steve Walsh198919160350.54331036364
Kordell Stewart199723200430.5353716464
Ken O'Brien198431271590.5344356560
Mark Sanchez200933290620.5324286660
Jim Everett198634300640.5314246760
Joe Kapp196724213480.5313666764
Aaron Rodgers200817150320.53121196772
Scott Mitchell199317150320.53121196772
Brian Griese199927240510.5293567164
Quincy Carter200118160340.52921137172
Scott Hunter197117153350.52921197372
Roman Gabriel196219171370.52721037472
Matt Hasselbeck200120180380.5262957572
Mike Phipps197019172380.52621037572
Peyton Manning199842380800.525487760
Kyle Orton200532290610.5253327864
Byron Leftwich200324220460.5222667972
Drew Brees200230280580.5172428072
Bob Griese196729273590.5172488172
Ron Jaworski197517160330.51511198282
Aaron Brooks200035340690.5071208382
Jay Cutler200634340680.50248484
Doug Williams197833331670.50288484
Neil Lomax198130301610.50428484
Jon Kitna199724240480.50668484
Bill Kenney198023230460.50718484
Brian Sipe197422220440.50828484
Jeff Garcia199935360710.493-1209090
Carson Palmer200432330650.492-1329190
Joe Ferguson197331320630.492-1359290
Daunte Culpepper200028290570.491-1539390
Bob Avellini197523240470.489-1719490
Tommy Kramer197722240460.478-2829595
Kyle Boller200320220420.476-2959695
Trent Dilfer199431350660.47-4359799
Don Majkowski198721241460.467-3899897
Bubby Brister198621240450.467-3899997
Kerry Collins199526300560.464-45910099
Phil Simms197923270500.46-47110199
Tom Flores196023282530.453-571102103
Rodney Peete198921260470.447-589103103
David Whitehurst197716201370.446-412610499
Steve Bartkowski197522280500.44-682105106
Trent Green199822290510.431-782106107
Josh Freeman200924320560.429-866107111
Steve Fuller197915200350.429-5131107103
Dave M. Brown199420270470.426-795109107
Gus Frerotte199419261460.424-7103110107
Jason Campbell200627370640.422-1056111113
Derek Anderson200618250430.419-7113112107
Charlie Batch199819270460.413-8103113111
Tony Banks199625360610.41-1163114115
Jeff Blake199421310520.404-1089115113
Jim Zorn197628440720.389-1653116124
Dan Pastorini197121330540.389-1289116118
Warren Moon198426420680.382-1659118124
Alex Smith200519310500.38-12103119118
Jake Plummer199725410660.379-1663120124
Matthew Stafford200917280450.378-11119121115
Jim Plunkett197123380610.377-1571122121
Fran Tarkenton196123393650.377-1671123124
Tim Couch199922370590.373-1582124121
Rick Mirer199320340540.37-1495125120
Sam Bradford201015261420.369-11131126115
Richard Todd197619340530.358-15103127121
Chris Miller198720360560.357-1695128124
Joey Harrington200223430660.348-2071129130
Mike Pagel198215311470.33-16131130124
Vinny Testaverde198719390580.328-20103131130
Jeff George199021440650.323-2389132132
Norm Snead196117413610.303-24119133133
David Carr200222530750.293-3182134135
Archie Manning197115433610.27-28131135134

Of course, having a good (or bad) winning percentage early in a quarterback’s career doesn’t tell us how much of a “winner” that quarterback will be in the future.

{ 1 comment }

(I originally posted this at the S-R Blog, but I thought it would be very appropriate here as well.)

Here is a google doc containing every team-season in our database since 1957, including the Head Coach and offensive & defensive coordinators. It also specifies those coaches’ preferred offensive or defensive schemes (depending on which side of the ball they specialize in), and attempts to figure out the general offensive family (i.e. Air Coryell, Erhardt-Perkins, etc) each team-season fell into.

THIS IS BY NO MEANS COMPLETE. In fact, it’s very much incomplete at this stage — and that’s where you come in. In the comments of this post, or in an email, we’d love to hear corrections and/or additions to the data, if you see an entry about which you know more than we do (and it’s a good bet you do). Thanks in advance for your help, and hopefully we can assemble a more complete listing of teams’ systems/schemes, which will let us do things like compute splits vs. a certain type of offense or defense, analyze whether 4-3 or 3-4 defenses were better in a given season, etc.

So let those corrections/additions pour in!

{ 5 comments }

The guy on the right was a loser until he wasn't.

The guy on the right was a loser until he wasn't.

Longtime readers of this blog know that I’m not a big fan of Matt Stafford. Last year, when most people were praising his breakout 2011 season, I questioned whether he was as good as his backers claimed. And, of course, his 2012 performance only raised more questions.

Stafford has a 17-28 career record, which in light of his recent contract extension, has caused people to criticize the Lions for giving big money to a player who is not a “winner.” There are legitimate reasons to criticize Stafford, so why would people fall back on statements like this? I’m sure Lions fans wish the team had won more games under Stafford, but that’s in the past. The real question — and the one faced by Lions management before giving him the extension — is whether his current career record has any predictive value when it comes to his future record.

Since 1960, there have been 77 quarterbacks1 who started at least 25 games in their first four seasons and then 25 more games in years five through eight. There’s some survivor bias in the sample — if you stick around for 25+ starts in years five through eight, you’re probably a pretty good quarterback — but there’s not much we can do about that. If you run a regression using winning percentage through four years as your input and winning percentage in years five through eight as your output, you get the following best-fit equation:

0.450 + 0.20 * Old Win %

The correlation coefficient is a tiny 0.04, and the p-value on the “Old Win %” variable is 0.09. Putting aside the questions of statistical significance, there is no practical effect. Stafford has a 0.377 winning percentage, which means this formula would predict him to win 52.6% of his games from 2013 to 2016. Joe Flacco won 68.75% of his games in his first four seasons; this would say he should be expected to win 58.7% of his games in years five through eight. In other words, someone with a great winning percentage should be expected to win only one more game per season than someone with a terrible winning percentage. And that’s even assuming the results are statistically significant, which many would say they are not.2
[click to continue…]

  1. Because their first seasons as starters came after age 25, I decided to eliminate Jeff Garcia, Trent Green, Warren Moon, Kurt Warner, Ed Brown, Tony Romo, Mark Rypien, and Jim Kelly from this study. []
  2. And, of course, it doesn’t mean that that one extra win is because of the quarterback. Presumably, like in the case of Flacco, those quarterbacks who win games early are on good teams, and those teams are more likely to stay good than the bad teams. []
{ 12 comments }

Rookie Passing, Rushing, and Receiving

In the graph below, the blue line shows the number of passing yards by rookies in each year since 1970, while the red line shows the number of passing yards by non-rookies in the same season. Both are measured against the left Y-Axis; the green line shows the percentage of rookie passing yards to veteran passing yards. As you can see, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden were part of an extremely productive rookie class:

rk vet pass yds [click to continue…]

{ 3 comments }

More division wins than non-division wins

The Rams finished with the best division record in the NFC West last year at 4-1-1, but St. Louis went only 3-7 in games against non-NFC West opponents. The Jaguars were 0-10 in non-division games last season, but beat both the Colts and Titans to finish 2-4 against the AFC South. Since the merger, three teams have won six more games against division rivals than against non-division opponents. Two of those teams did so in 1998, when the Cowboys went 10-6 thanks to a 8-0 record against the NFC East and a 2-6 mark against the rest of the league (in the playoffs that year, Dallas lost to an NFC East team, a choke that was presumably not Tony Romo’s fault). Over in the AFC, the Titans finished 7-1 against the AFC Central and 1-7 against the rest of the NFL. Technically, the ’82 Dolphins went 7-1 against the AFC East and 0-1 against Tampa Bay during the strike-shortened season, so they fit the criteria, too.

In the new eight-division, four-teams-per-division format, each team plays six games against division opponents and 10 games against non-division opponents. The table below shows all teams since 2002 that won more at least 1.5 more games against division rivals than non-division opponents:
[click to continue…]

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Want to see how passing has changed in the NFL over the last 63 years? A picture is worth at least 1,000 words in this case. The graph below shows the number of interceptions per dropback (red), sacks per dropback (purple), non-INT incomplete passes per dropback (yellow) and completions per dropback (green). Of course, a dropback is simply a pass attempt or a sack. The information is stacked on top of each other for ease of viewing.

pdist2
[click to continue…]

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Those are some clutch shirts

Those are some clutch shirts.

Eight years ago — almost to the day — our old PFR colleague Doug Drinen wrote a Sabernomics post about “The Manning Index”, a metric designed to roughly gauge the clutchness (or chokeitude) of a given quarterback by looking at how he did relative to expectations (he revived this concept in version two, six years ago). In a nutshell, Doug used the location of the game and the win differential of the two teams involved to establish an expected winning percentage for each quarterback in a given matchup. He then added those up across all of a quarterback’s playoff starts, and compared to the number of wins he actually had. Therefore, quarterbacks who frequently exceeded expectations in playoff games could be considered “clutch” while those who often fell short (like the Index’s namesake, Peyton Manning) might just be inveterate chokers.

Doug ran that study in the midst of the 2004-05 playoffs, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Tom Brady (who was at the time 8-0 as a playoff starter and would run it to 10-0 before ever suffering a loss) came out on top, winning 3.5 more games than you’d expect from the particulars of the games he started. Fast-forward eight years, though, and you get this list of quarterbacks who debuted after 1977:
[click to continue…]

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This is mostly a huge end-of-regular-season data dump, but I’ll explain a little before the table…

PFR’s Simple Rating System can be broken into offensive and defensive components, which represent the number of points per game the team scored/allowed per game compared to the league average, after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses and defenses faced. If you want to derive an expected winning percentage from that, you have to “back out” to total points scored/allowed again. To do that, you just add OSRS (or subtract DSRS) to the league’s average PPG, then multiply by the number of games the team played. This will give you adjusted points scored/allowed totals for the season.

To get that into a winning percentage-like form, you then need to plug those totals into the Pythagorean Formula. It usually takes the form of

(Pts Scored ^ x) / (Pts Scored ^ x + Pts Allowed ^ x)

where x was determined to be around 2.4 for the NFL in the 1990s, when current Houston Rockets (yep, basketball) GM Daryl Morey researched it for STATS, Inc. Last year, Football Outsiders decided to employ a “floating” exponent that varies with the scoring environment in which a team played, recognizing that a single point is more important to winning in lower-scoring environments. To that end, they used what’s known as the “Pythagenport” method of determining the exponent, which is

1.5 * log10((PF + PA) / G)

I was poking around in the data the other day, though, and found that the so-called “Pythagenpat” variant actually correlates slightly better with teams’ actual won-lost records since the NFL-AFL merger. That formula suggests for each team an exponent of

((PF + PA) / G) ^ 0.2466

This gives you a 1.204 RMSE vs. wins since 1970, a very slight improvement over the 1.205 RMSE you get using FO’s formula.

At any rate, I applied the Pythagenpat exponent to each team’s schedule-adjusted points scored/allowed totals since 1970, and tweaked the pythagorean win/loss totals up/down at the league-season level to match actual league-wide win/loss totals. The result was a definitive set of pythagorean ratings for every team since the merger:

Year
Tm
pfr_id
Division
G
W
L
T
WPct
Pts
PtsO
OSRS
DSRS
adj_PF
adj_PA
adj_Pyth
2012Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1661000.375344435-0.9-5.8349.84456.840.3331
2012Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East167900.438288317-5.52.9276.24317.640.4174
2012New England PatriotsnweAFC East1612400.75055733112.20.5559.44356.040.7747
2012New York JetsnyjAFC East1661000.375281375-5.1-0.9282.64378.440.3267
2012Baltimore RavensravAFC North1610600.6253983441.91.0394.64348.040.5819
2012Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North1610600.6253913201.20.9383.44349.640.5606
2012Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1651100.313302368-4.6-0.7290.64375.240.3467
2012Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North168800.500336314-2.82.1319.44330.440.4806
2012Houston TexanshtxAFC South1612400.7504163311.81.7393.04336.840.5993
2012Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1611500.688357387-1.9-2.8333.84408.840.3740
2012Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South1621400.125255444-8.1-4.9234.64442.440.1700
2012Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1661000.375330471-2.6-7.4322.64482.440.2595
2012Denver BroncosdenAFC West1613300.8134812896.33.8465.04303.240.7539
2012Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1621400.125211425-10.3-3.7199.44423.240.1368
2012Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1641200.250290443-4.6-6.2290.64463.240.2322
2012San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West167900.438350350-2.0-0.4332.24370.440.4329
2012Dallas CowboysdalNFC East168800.5003764001.4-1.2386.64383.240.5074
2012New York GiantsnygNFC East169700.5634293444.02.2428.24328.840.6662
2012Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1641200.250280444-5.3-3.6279.44421.640.2619
2012Washington RedskinswasNFC East1610600.6254363884.6-1.2437.84383.240.5887
2012Chicago BearschiNFC North1610600.6253752771.06.0380.24268.040.7066
2012Detroit LionsdetNFC North1641200.2503724372.1-4.4397.84434.440.4436
2012Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1611500.6884333364.92.4442.64325.640.6911
2012Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1610600.6253793481.61.8389.84335.240.5971
2012Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1613300.8134192992.04.5396.24292.040.6855
2012Carolina PantherscarNFC South167900.438357363-0.51.3356.24343.240.5252
2012New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South167900.4384614546.5-5.1468.24445.640.5351
2012Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South167900.4383893941.3-1.3385.04384.840.5020
2012Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West1651100.313250357-4.81.6287.44338.440.4022
2012San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1611410.7193972733.56.7420.24256.840.7772
2012Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1611500.6884122454.57.7436.24240.840.8186
2012St. Louis RamsramNFC West167810.469299348-2.12.4330.64325.640.5112
2011Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1661000.3753724341.2-4.5374.03426.930.4200
2011Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1661000.375329313-2.23.2319.63303.730.5374
2011New England PatriotsnweAFC East1613300.8135133429.4-0.1505.23356.530.7234
2011New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.5003773631.2-0.3374.03359.730.5310
2011Baltimore RavensravAFC North1612400.7503782662.63.5396.43298.930.6776
2011Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North169700.5633443230.7-0.2366.03358.130.5199
2011Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1641200.250218307-7.21.8239.63326.130.3284
2011Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1612400.750325227-0.86.0342.03258.930.6698
2011Houston TexanshtxAFC South1610600.6253812781.43.2377.23303.730.6393
2011Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1621400.125243430-6.0-5.3258.83439.730.2127
2011Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South1651100.313243329-7.11.4241.23332.530.3212
2011Tennessee TitansotiAFC South169700.563325317-2.21.2319.63335.730.4753
2011Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.500309390-3.6-1.7297.23382.130.3527
2011Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West167900.438212338-10.22.1191.63321.330.2347
2011Oakland RaidersraiAFC West168800.5003594330.2-5.1358.03436.530.3790
2011San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.5004063772.7-1.8398.03383.730.5298
2011Dallas CowboysdalNFC East168800.5003693470.70.9366.03340.530.5518
2011New York GiantsnygNFC East169700.5633944003.1-1.5404.43378.930.5484
2011Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East168800.5003963283.11.7404.43327.730.6377
2011Washington RedskinswasNFC East1651100.313288367-4.30.2286.03351.730.3804
2011Chicago BearschiNFC North168800.500353341-1.53.1330.83305.330.5555
2011Detroit LionsdetNFC North1610600.6254743876.9-0.8465.23367.730.6569
2011Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1615100.93856035911.5-0.1538.83356.530.7589
2011Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1631300.188340449-1.6-4.1329.23420.530.3530
2011Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1610600.6254023501.81.7383.63327.730.6050
2011Carolina PantherscarNFC South1661000.3754064292.6-3.9396.43417.330.4722
2011New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South1613300.81354733910.60.8524.43342.130.7642
2011Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South1641200.250287494-4.0-6.6290.83460.530.2397
2011Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West168800.500312348-1.7-0.5327.63362.930.4416
2011San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1613300.8133802291.76.6382.03249.330.7479
2011Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West167900.438321315-0.51.3346.83334.130.5295
2011St. Louis RamsramNFC West1621400.125193407-8.4-2.1220.43388.530.2053
2010Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1641200.250283425-1.5-3.1328.74402.040.3740
2010Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East167900.438273333-2.83.1307.94302.840.5106
2010New England PatriotsnweAFC East1614200.87551831312.62.8554.34307.640.8287
2010New York JetsnyjAFC East1611500.6883673042.24.2387.94285.240.6846
2010Baltimore RavensravAFC North1612400.7503572700.95.5367.14264.440.6929
2010Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North1641200.2503223950.4-1.9359.14382.840.4593
2010Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1651100.313271332-3.42.0298.34320.440.4565
2010Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1612400.7503752322.57.7392.74229.240.7908
2010Houston TexanshtxAFC South1661000.3753904271.8-3.7381.54411.640.4508
2010Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1610600.6254353883.7-0.9411.94366.840.5753
2010Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South168800.500353419-1.2-3.3333.54405.240.3777
2010Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1661000.375356339-0.91.9338.34322.040.5312
2010Denver BroncosdenAFC West1641200.250344471-1.1-7.8335.14477.240.2831
2010Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1610600.625366326-1.50.8328.74339.640.4799
2010Oakland RaidersraiAFC West168800.5004103712.3-2.2389.54387.640.5035
2010San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West169700.5634413223.21.6403.94326.840.6330
2010Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1661000.3753944362.5-4.7392.74427.640.4444
2010New York GiantsnygNFC East1610600.6253943471.70.4379.94346.040.5599
2010Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1610600.6254393775.4-1.2439.14371.640.6085
2010Washington RedskinswasNFC East1661000.375302377-3.4-0.5298.34360.440.3843
2010Chicago BearschiNFC North1611500.688334286-0.64.7343.14277.240.6288
2010Detroit LionsdetNFC North1661000.3753623692.4-0.5391.14360.440.5530
2010Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1610600.6253882403.17.9402.34226.040.8065
2010Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1661000.375281348-3.31.7299.94325.240.4505
2010Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1613300.8134142883.82.2413.54317.240.6641
2010Carolina PantherscarNFC South1621400.125196408-9.1-4.1207.14418.040.1505
2010New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South1611500.6883843071.50.8376.74339.640.5661
2010Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South1610600.625341318-1.00.4336.74346.040.4832
2010Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West1651100.313289434-5.6-7.1263.14466.040.1879
2010San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1661000.375305346-4.7-1.1277.54370.040.3285
2010Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West167900.438310407-3.9-5.5290.34440.440.2559
2010St. Louis RamsramNFC West167900.438289328-6.3-0.4251.94358.840.2960
2009Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1661000.375258326-4.52.7271.47300.270.4395
2009Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East167900.4383603902.9-1.2389.87362.670.5466
2009New England PatriotsnweAFC East1610600.6254272856.74.5450.67271.470.7853
2009New York JetsnyjAFC East169700.5633482361.17.5361.07223.470.7623
2009Baltimore RavensravAFC North169700.5633912612.64.9385.07265.070.7173
2009Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North1610600.625305291-2.53.2303.47292.270.5230
2009Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1651100.313245375-6.0-2.4247.47381.870.2549
2009Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North169700.5633683241.00.7359.47332.270.5497
2009Houston TexanshtxAFC South169700.5633883332.7-0.7386.67354.670.5554
2009Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1614200.8754163074.41.5413.87319.470.6604
2009Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South167900.438290380-3.8-2.6282.67385.070.3153
2009Tennessee TitansotiAFC South168800.5003544020.9-3.6357.87401.070.4268
2009Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.500326324-1.01.3327.47322.670.5092
2009Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1641200.250294424-2.5-5.9303.47437.870.2801
2009Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1651100.313197379-8.7-1.6204.27369.070.1932
2009San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1613300.8134543206.40.2445.87340.270.6696
2009Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1611500.6883612500.46.7349.87236.270.7220
2009New York GiantsnygNFC East168800.5004024274.6-4.5417.07415.470.5026
2009Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1611500.6884293375.80.2436.27340.270.6564
2009Washington RedskinswasNFC East1641200.250266336-5.51.0255.47327.470.3538
2009Chicago BearschiNFC North167900.438327375-1.9-2.0313.07375.470.3871
2009Detroit LionsdetNFC North1621400.125262494-5.2-9.2260.27490.670.1628
2009Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1611500.6884612976.31.1444.27325.870.6912
2009Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1612400.7504703126.60.6449.07333.870.6844
2009Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South169700.5633633252.72.3386.67306.670.6427
2009Carolina PantherscarNFC South168800.500315308-0.64.5333.87271.470.6241
2009New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South1613300.81351034111.2-0.5522.67351.470.7435
2009Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South1631300.188244400-4.6-1.1269.87361.070.3273
2009Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West1610600.6253753250.1-0.4345.07349.870.4913
2009San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West168800.500330281-2.93.0297.07295.470.5033
2009Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1651100.313280390-5.0-4.4263.47413.870.2429
2009St. Louis RamsramNFC West1611500.063175436-11.7-5.8156.27436.270.0758
2008Buffalo BillsbufAFC East167900.438336342-2.8-0.6307.67362.070.3972
2008Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.688345317-2.41.8314.07323.670.4794
2008New England PatriotsnweAFC East1611500.6884103092.31.6389.27326.870.6078
2008New York JetsnyjAFC East169700.5634053562.2-1.9387.67382.870.5062
2008Baltimore RavensravAFC North1611500.6883852444.25.6419.67262.870.7631
2008Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North1641110.281204364-6.9-0.1242.07354.070.2814
2008Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1641200.250232350-5.20.6269.27342.870.3539
2008Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1612400.7503472231.68.2378.07221.270.7854
2008Houston TexanshtxAFC South168800.5003663942.8-3.2397.27403.670.4876
2008Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1612400.7503772982.63.9394.07290.070.6823
2008Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South1651100.313302367-2.1-0.4318.87358.870.4242
2008Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1613300.8133752341.57.5376.47232.470.7635
2008Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.5003704480.7-6.5363.67456.470.3524
2008Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1621400.125291440-3.9-5.3290.07437.270.2569
2008Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1651100.313263388-6.5-1.0248.47368.470.2730
2008San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.5004393475.00.0432.47352.470.6285
2008Dallas CowboysdalNFC East169700.5633623651.7-1.2379.67371.670.5118
2008New York GiantsnygNFC East1612400.7504272945.52.8440.47307.670.7143
2008Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East169610.5944162894.73.2427.67301.270.7087
2008Washington RedskinswasNFC East168800.500265296-5.84.1259.67286.870.4389
2008Chicago BearschiNFC North169700.5633753501.11.0370.07336.470.5583
2008Detroit LionsdetNFC North1601600.000268517-4.0-9.1288.47498.070.1916
2008Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1661000.3754193804.1-1.2418.07371.670.5744
2008Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1610600.6253793331.12.9370.07306.070.6153
2008Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1611500.6883913251.32.5373.27312.470.6085
2008Carolina PantherscarNFC South1612400.7504143292.82.9397.27306.070.6580
2008New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South168800.5004633936.8-2.8461.27397.270.5965
2008Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South169700.563361323-0.62.9342.87306.070.5683
2008Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West169700.5634274264.1-6.0418.07448.470.4512
2008San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West167900.438339381-2.9-2.4306.07390.870.3478
2008Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1641200.250294392-4.9-2.8274.07397.270.2804
2008St. Louis RamsramNFC West1621400.125232465-8.1-7.0222.87464.470.1332
2007Buffalo BillsbufAFC East167900.438252354-5.61.5257.55322.950.3735
2007Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.063267437-4.1-4.2281.55414.150.2805
2007New England PatriotsnweAFC East1616001.00058927415.94.2601.55279.750.8940
2007New York JetsnyjAFC East1641200.250268355-4.00.3283.15342.150.3926
2007Baltimore RavensravAFC North1651100.313275384-5.0-1.8267.15375.750.3072
2007Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North167900.4383803851.6-4.0372.75410.950.4440
2007Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1610600.6254023822.2-3.3382.35399.750.4783
2007Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1610600.6253932690.94.3361.55278.150.6646
2007Houston TexanshtxAFC South168800.5003793842.5-2.5387.15386.950.5076
2007Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1613300.8134502626.65.4452.75260.550.8110
2007Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South1611500.6884113044.82.0423.95314.950.6897
2007Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1610600.625301297-2.93.6300.75289.350.5308
2007Denver BroncosdenAFC West167900.438320409-0.2-3.8343.95407.750.3991
2007Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1641200.250226335-7.41.9228.75316.550.3226
2007Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1641200.250283398-3.5-2.5291.15386.950.3355
2007San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1611500.6884122844.34.5415.95274.950.7476
2007Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1613300.8134553257.81.7471.95319.750.7421
2007New York GiantsnygNFC East1610600.6253733512.80.4391.95340.550.5966
2007Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East168800.5003363000.15.1348.75265.350.6692
2007Washington RedskinswasNFC East169700.5633343100.24.3350.35278.150.6462
2007Chicago BearschiNFC North167900.438334348-0.21.4343.95324.550.5437
2007Detroit LionsdetNFC North167900.4383464441.4-5.0369.55426.950.4138
2007Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1613300.8134352915.73.3438.35294.150.7431
2007Minnesota VikingsminNFC North168800.5003653111.42.4369.55308.550.6190
2007Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1641200.250259414-5.8-4.8254.35423.750.2239
2007Carolina PantherscarNFC South167900.438267347-5.7-0.1255.95348.550.3268
2007New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South167900.4383793881.9-4.5377.55418.950.4396
2007Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South169700.563334270-2.33.6310.35289.350.5500
2007Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West168800.5004043991.9-5.9377.55441.350.4057
2007San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1651100.313219364-9.9-2.0188.75378.950.1643
2007Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1610600.6253932910.80.9359.95332.550.5573
2007St. Louis RamsramNFC West1631300.188263438-6.5-6.5243.15450.950.1803
2006Buffalo BillsbufAFC East167900.438300311-0.22.4327.33292.080.5747
2006Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1661000.375260283-3.34.0277.73266.480.5296
2006New England PatriotsnweAFC East1612400.7503852374.35.9399.33236.080.7913
2006New York JetsnyjAFC East1610600.6253162950.41.7336.93303.280.5699
2006Baltimore RavensravAFC North1613300.8133532011.57.8354.53205.680.7922
2006Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North168800.5003733314.00.0394.53330.480.6165
2006Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1641200.250238356-4.5-1.3258.53351.280.3253
2006Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North168800.5003533153.00.4378.53324.080.6024
2006Houston TexanshtxAFC South1661000.375267366-3.2-1.3279.33351.280.3669
2006Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1612400.7504273606.9-1.1440.93348.080.6548
2006Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South168800.5003712742.64.9372.13252.080.7284
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2004Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1615100.9383722513.45.6398.20254.200.7576
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2003Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1661000.375300327-2.51.4293.26310.960.4675
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2003Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1612400.7504473368.2-1.2464.46352.560.6775
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2003Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1612400.7504353247.0-0.5445.26341.360.6703
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2003San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1641200.250313441-0.6-6.2323.66432.560.3241
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2003New York GiantsnygNFC East1641200.250243387-4.8-3.7256.46392.560.2605
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2003Detroit LionsdetNFC North1651100.313270379-4.3-1.6264.46358.960.3233
2003Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1610600.6254423076.21.9432.46302.960.7173
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2002Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East169700.5633783011.74.4374.03276.380.6807
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2002Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1610510.6563903453.1-0.4396.43353.180.5746
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2002Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1611500.6883673241.60.1372.43345.180.5490
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2002New York GiantsnygNFC East1610600.625320279-2.23.0311.63298.780.5264
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2001Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1661000.3754134866.1-9.8421.01480.210.4109
2001Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.688344290-0.33.1318.61273.810.5902
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2001Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1610600.6253993274.0-0.4387.41329.810.6002
2001San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1651100.3133323210.3-0.6328.21333.010.4898
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2001Chicago BearschiNFC Central1613300.8133382030.87.1336.21209.810.7540
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2000Baltimore RavensravAFC Central1612400.7503331650.08.0330.72202.830.7587
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2000Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central169700.5633212550.63.3340.32278.030.6191
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2000Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1610600.6254293267.10.8444.32318.030.7013
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2000Denver BroncosdenAFC West1611500.6884853697.8-2.7455.52374.030.6247
2000Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West167900.4383553540.10.6332.32321.230.5183
2000Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1612400.7504792998.01.8458.72302.030.7442
2000San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1611500.063269440-3.7-4.4271.52401.230.2697
2000Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West1661000.375320405-1.4-2.3308.32367.630.3882
2000Chicago BearschiNFC Central1651100.313216355-6.40.1228.32329.230.2907
2000Detroit LionsdetNFC Central169700.563307307-0.11.5329.12306.830.5405
2000Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central169700.5633533231.80.7359.52319.630.5707
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2000Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1610600.6253882693.43.9385.12268.430.7083
2000Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East1631300.188210443-7.2-8.1215.52460.430.1261
2000Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1651100.313294361-1.5-3.0306.72378.830.3669
2000New York GiantsnygNFC East1612400.750328246-1.33.8309.92270.030.5799
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2000Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1641200.250252413-5.7-2.9239.52377.230.2436
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2000New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1610600.625354305-1.22.1311.52297.230.5259
2000San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1661000.3753884221.7-5.5357.92418.830.3962
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1999Baltimore RavensravAFC Central168800.500324277-1.62.5307.43293.080.5251
1999Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1641200.250283460-3.3-8.2280.23464.280.2099
1999Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1621400.125217437-7.6-6.5211.43437.080.1367
1999Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC Central1614200.8753962171.35.1353.83251.480.6937
1999Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1661000.375317320-2.2-0.2297.83336.280.4213
1999Tennessee TitansotiAFC Central1613300.8133923242.0-1.0365.03349.080.5244
1999Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1611500.688320229-0.27.4329.83214.680.7319
1999Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1613300.8134233336.6-0.5438.63341.080.6543
1999Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East169700.5633263361.20.7352.23321.880.5524
1999New England PatriotsnweAFC East168800.500299284-1.03.2317.03281.880.5672
1999New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.5003083090.22.9336.23286.680.5930
1999Denver BroncosdenAFC West1661000.3753143181.02.4349.03294.680.5997
1999Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West169700.5633903225.51.3421.03312.280.6789
1999Oakland RaidersraiAFC West168800.5003903295.71.0424.23317.080.6751
1999San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.500269316-3.92.9270.63286.680.4614
1999Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West169700.5633382981.92.6363.43291.480.6303
1999Chicago BearschiNFC Central1661000.375272341-3.01.0285.03317.080.4312
1999Detroit LionsdetNFC Central168800.5003223230.11.8334.63304.280.5547
1999Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168800.5003573412.5-0.9373.03347.480.5412
1999Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1610600.6253993355.2-0.8416.23345.880.6137
1999Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1611500.688270235-4.16.7267.43225.880.5930
1999Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East1661000.375245382-5.5-3.2245.03384.280.2433
1999Dallas CowboysdalNFC East168800.500352276-0.33.4328.23278.680.5949
1999New York GiantsnygNFC East167900.438299358-1.8-1.2304.23352.280.4054
1999Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1651100.313272357-3.3-0.9280.23347.480.3661
1999Washington RedskinswasNFC East1610600.6254433776.8-3.9441.83395.480.5689
1999Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1651100.313285380-4.0-3.0269.03381.080.2916
1999Carolina PantherscarNFC West168800.5004213812.9-4.0379.43397.080.4664
1999New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1631300.188260434-5.3-6.9248.23443.480.1831
1999San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1641200.250295453-4.5-6.8261.03441.880.2038
1999St. Louis RamsramNFC West1613300.8135262428.73.2472.23281.880.7875
1998Baltimore RavensravAFC Central1661000.375269335-5.2-0.2257.35343.590.3389
1998Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1631300.188268452-4.5-6.5268.55444.390.2253
1998Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC Central1611500.6883923383.1-0.6390.15349.990.5780
1998Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central167900.438263303-5.11.3258.95319.590.3838
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1998Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1631300.188310444-0.1-5.3338.95425.190.3656
1998Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1610600.625321265-0.76.5329.35236.390.6983
1998New England PatriotsnweAFC East169700.5633373291.12.8358.15295.590.6261
1998New York JetsnyjAFC East1612400.7504162665.45.8426.95247.590.8060
1998Denver BroncosdenAFC West1614200.8755013099.5-0.6492.55349.990.7211
1998Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West167900.438327363-0.7-2.4329.35378.790.4204
1998Oakland RaidersraiAFC West168800.500288356-4.1-1.5274.95364.390.3405
1998San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1651100.313241342-7.7-0.7217.35351.590.2472
1998Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West168800.5003723100.90.6354.95330.790.5529
1998Chicago BearschiNFC Central1641200.250276368-3.4-0.3286.15345.190.3945
1998Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1651100.313306378-1.9-1.5310.15364.390.4085
1998Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1611500.6884083194.30.7409.35329.190.6451
1998Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1615100.93855629613.21.6551.75314.790.8264
1998Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central168800.500314295-2.33.5303.75284.390.5485
1998Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East169700.563325378-1.6-5.8314.95433.190.3137
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1998Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1614200.8754422897.03.0452.55292.390.7637
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1998New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1661000.375305359-1.51.6316.55314.790.5120
1998San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1612400.7504793288.81.8481.35311.590.7660
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1997Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1631300.188313401-0.6-3.8322.41392.650.3771
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1997Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1641200.250324419-0.1-5.0330.41411.850.3621
1997San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1641200.250266425-4.1-4.8266.41408.650.2545
1997Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West168800.5003653621.8-1.7360.81359.050.5034
1997Chicago BearschiNFC Central1641200.250263421-3.1-5.3282.41416.650.2718
1997Detroit LionsdetNFC Central169700.5633793063.00.9380.01317.450.6124
1997Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1613300.8134222825.32.4416.81293.450.7101
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1997Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East1641200.250283379-2.6-3.8290.41392.650.3187
1997Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1661000.375304314-1.71.0304.81315.850.4784
1997New York GiantsnygNFC East1610510.656307265-1.83.3303.21279.050.5505
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1997New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1661000.375237327-6.8-0.6223.21341.450.2646
1997San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1613300.8133752652.42.7370.41288.650.6514
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1996Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East169700.563317334-1.80.2297.98323.630.4486
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1996New York JetsnyjAFC East1611500.063279454-2.5-7.6286.78448.430.2400
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1996San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.5003103760.4-2.1333.18360.430.4497
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1996Chicago BearschiNFC Central167900.438283305-1.41.2304.38307.630.4928
1996Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1651100.313302368-0.4-2.5320.38366.830.4146
1996Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1613300.8134562108.76.6465.98221.230.8673
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1996Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East167900.438300397-1.7-5.8299.58419.630.2964
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1996New York GiantsnygNFC East1661000.375242297-5.71.5235.58302.830.3542
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1996Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1631300.188309461-0.2-8.9323.58469.230.2736
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1996New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1631300.188229339-7.1-1.0213.18342.830.2417
1996San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1612400.7503982573.74.3385.98258.030.7307
1996St. Louis RamsramNFC West1661000.375303409-1.7-4.6299.58400.430.3231
1995Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central167900.4383493740.1-1.9345.35374.040.4529
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1995Houston OilersotiAFC Central167900.438348324-0.10.9342.15329.240.5279
1995Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC Central1641200.250275404-4.4-3.7273.35402.840.2774
1995Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1611500.6884073273.41.2398.15324.440.6318
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1995Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East169700.563331316-1.70.4316.55337.240.4643
1995Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East169700.5633983323.1-0.4393.35350.040.5783
1995New England PatriotsnweAFC East1661000.375294377-2.8-2.6298.95385.240.3489
1995New York JetsnyjAFC East1631300.188233384-7.9-3.3217.35396.440.1896
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1995Chicago BearschiNFC Central169700.5633923603.1-0.8393.35356.440.5670
1995Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1610600.6254363365.91.0438.15327.640.6839
1995Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1611500.6884043143.52.5399.75303.640.6717
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1995Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East1641200.250275422-3.5-4.0287.75407.640.2963
1995Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7504352916.23.5442.95287.640.7554
1995New York GiantsnygNFC East1651100.313290340-2.61.1302.15326.040.4568
1995Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1610600.625318338-1.90.2313.35340.440.4522
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1995Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West169700.5633623490.9-0.9358.15358.040.5039
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1995New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West167900.438319348-1.7-0.4316.55350.040.4410
1995San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1611500.6884572586.55.3447.75258.840.8050
1995St. Louis RamsramNFC West167900.438309418-1.8-4.6314.95417.240.3307
1994Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1631300.188276406-1.6-5.4298.56410.450.3110
1994Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1611500.6883402041.26.1343.36226.450.7352
1994Houston OilersotiAFC Central1621400.125226352-4.7-2.6248.96365.650.2831
1994Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1612400.750316234-0.25.0320.96244.050.6625
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1994Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East168800.500307320-1.3-0.2303.36327.250.4565
1994Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1610600.6253893274.5-0.3396.16328.850.6203
1994New England PatriotsnweAFC East1610600.6253513121.91.3354.56303.250.5997
1994New York JetsnyjAFC East1661000.375264320-3.71.5264.96300.050.4289
1994Denver BroncosdenAFC West167900.4383473961.3-4.6344.96397.650.4127
1994Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West169700.563319298-1.32.1303.36290.450.5297
1994Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West169700.563303327-1.90.3293.76319.250.4523
1994San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1611500.6883813062.90.7370.56312.850.6085
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1994Chicago BearschiNFC Central169700.563271307-3.21.3272.96303.250.4399
1994Detroit LionsdetNFC Central169700.5633573422.8-0.4368.96330.450.5728
1994Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central169700.5633822873.82.2384.96288.850.6764
1994Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1610600.6253563142.40.8362.56311.250.5980
1994Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1661000.375251351-5.4-0.8237.76336.850.3043
1994Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East168800.500235267-5.63.3234.56271.250.4189
1994Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7504142485.64.5413.76252.050.7793
1994New York GiantsnygNFC East169700.563279305-2.71.0280.96308.050.4475
1994Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East167900.438308308-0.41.0317.76308.050.5224
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1994Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West167900.438317385-1.2-3.1304.96373.650.3780
1994Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1641200.250286365-3.2-2.1272.96357.650.3421
1994New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West167900.4383484071.0-4.6340.16397.650.4042
1994San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1613300.8135052969.91.7482.56296.850.7834
1993Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1631300.188187319-7.4-1.0180.78315.180.2164
1993Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central167900.438304307-0.6-0.6289.58308.780.4625
1993Houston OilersotiAFC Central1612400.7503682384.13.1364.78249.580.7193
1993Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central169700.5633082810.11.5300.78275.180.5552
1993Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1612400.7503292421.83.0327.98251.180.6578
1993Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1641200.250189378-6.2-5.1199.98380.780.1750
1993Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East169700.5633493513.9-4.3361.58367.980.4903
1993New England PatriotsnweAFC East1651100.313238286-4.00.3235.18294.380.3716
1993New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.500270247-2.12.9265.58252.780.5307
1993Denver BroncosdenAFC West169700.5633732844.60.4372.78292.780.6485
1993Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1611500.6883282911.91.0329.58283.180.5937
1993Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West1610600.6253063261.1-1.7316.78326.380.4830
1993San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.5003222901.11.1316.78281.580.5730
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1993Chicago BearschiNFC Central167900.438234230-4.64.3225.58230.380.4896
1993Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1610600.625298292-0.30.0294.38299.180.4917
1993Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central169700.5633402822.70.5342.38291.180.6006
1993Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central169700.563277290-1.31.2278.38279.980.4981
1993Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1651100.313237376-3.3-4.3246.38367.980.2732
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1993New York GiantsnygNFC East1611500.688288205-0.85.4286.38212.780.6684
1993Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East168800.5002933150.7-0.3310.38303.980.5144
1993Phoenix CardinalscrdNFC East167900.4383262691.92.1329.58265.580.6303
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1993Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1661000.3753163850.8-5.2311.98382.380.3755
1993Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1651100.313221367-5.0-3.4219.18353.580.2411
1993New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West168800.5003173430.7-2.1310.38332.780.4584
1993San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1610600.6254732959.9-0.3457.58303.980.7443
1992Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1651100.313274364-0.9-5.7285.28390.940.3152
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1992Houston OilersotiAFC Central1610600.6253522583.02.6347.68258.140.6784
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1992Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East169700.563216302-6.0-1.0203.68315.740.2660
1992Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.6883402812.1-0.6333.28309.340.5499
1992New England PatriotsnweAFC East1621400.125205363-6.5-4.5195.68371.740.1792
1992New York JetsnyjAFC East1641200.250220315-6.0-0.9203.68314.140.2685
1992Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.500262329-1.4-1.9277.28330.140.3984
1992Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1610600.6253482823.7-0.2358.88302.940.6082
1992Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West167900.438249281-3.21.5248.48275.740.4425
1992San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1611500.6883352411.81.3328.48278.940.6026
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1992Chicago BearschiNFC Central1651100.313295361-0.2-3.3296.48352.540.3975
1992Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1651100.313273332-0.7-1.1288.48317.340.4456
1992Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central169700.563276296-2.61.0258.08283.740.4475
1992Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1611500.6883742494.43.3370.08246.940.7339
1992Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1651100.313267365-2.0-3.9267.68362.140.3251
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1992New York GiantsnygNFC East1661000.3753063671.6-3.4325.28354.140.4504
1992Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1611500.6883542454.84.1376.48234.140.7661
1992Phoenix CardinalscrdNFC East1641200.250243332-2.9-0.1253.28301.340.4011
1992Washington RedskinswasNFC East169700.5633002550.73.8310.88238.940.6561
1992Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1661000.3753274142.3-6.4336.48402.140.3910
1992Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1661000.3753133831.1-4.0317.28363.740.4184
1992New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1612400.7503302020.77.1310.88186.140.7717
1992San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1614200.8754312367.34.5416.48227.740.8215
1991Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1631300.188263435-1.8-6.9275.04414.190.2645
1991Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1661000.375293298-0.70.4292.64297.390.4927
1991Houston OilersotiAFC Central1611500.6883862514.93.4382.24249.390.7446
1991Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central167900.438292344-0.8-2.2291.04338.990.4092
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1991Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1611500.063143381-11.5-5.7119.84394.990.0594
1991Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East168800.5003433490.7-4.8315.04380.590.3849
1991New England PatriotsnweAFC East1661000.375211305-7.9-0.8177.44316.590.2085
1991New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.500314293-1.2-1.2284.64322.990.4256
1991Denver BroncosdenAFC West1612400.7503042350.33.1308.64254.190.6171
1991Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1610600.6253222521.84.5332.64231.790.7071
1991Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West169700.5632982970.31.1308.64286.190.5484
1991San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1641200.250274342-0.6-1.7294.24330.990.4303
1991Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West167900.438276261-1.52.7279.84260.590.5448
1991Chicago BearschiNFC Central1611500.688299269-1.22.0284.64271.790.5301
1991Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1612400.7503392950.90.0318.24303.790.5311
1991Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1641200.250273313-3.3-1.4251.04326.190.3491
1991Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central168800.500301306-0.2-1.8300.64332.590.4402
1991Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1631300.188199365-7.0-4.2191.84370.990.1723
1991Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1611500.6883423103.70.8363.04290.990.6371
1991New York GiantsnygNFC East168800.500281297-0.61.5294.24279.790.5329
1991Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1610600.625285244-0.35.0299.04223.790.6673
1991Phoenix CardinalscrdNFC East1641200.250196344-4.9-0.5225.44311.790.3187
1991Washington RedskinswasNFC East1614200.87548522411.74.9491.04225.390.8820
1991Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1610600.6253613384.7-1.3379.04324.590.5998
1991Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1631300.188234390-2.6-3.4262.24358.190.3193
1991New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1611500.6883412112.86.3348.64202.990.7874
1991San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1610600.6253932396.64.3409.44234.990.8016
1990Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central169700.5633603521.9-3.0352.42369.910.4632
1990Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1631300.188228462-5.2-7.8238.82446.710.1647
1990Houston OilersotiAFC Central169700.5634053074.90.3400.42317.110.6389
1990Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central169700.563292240-3.45.0267.62241.910.5532
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1983Houston OilersotiAFC Central1621400.125288460-3.7-7.9290.11475.710.2227
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1983Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1612400.7503892502.65.2390.91266.110.7292
1983New England PatriotsnweAFC East168800.500274289-4.73.7274.11290.110.4717
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1983Denver BroncosdenAFC West169700.563302327-4.11.3283.71328.510.4167
1983Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1661000.3753863671.70.3376.51344.510.5624
1983Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West1612400.7504423385.11.7430.91322.110.6855
1983San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1661000.3753584621.1-5.7366.91440.510.3879
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1983Chicago BearschiNFC Central168800.500311301-2.51.5309.31325.310.4746
1983Detroit LionsdetNFC Central169700.563347286-1.23.3330.11296.510.5717
1983Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168800.5004294395.2-7.1432.51462.910.4601
1983Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central168800.500316348-2.9-0.1302.91350.910.4150
1983Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1621400.125241380-7.5-1.6229.31374.910.2366
1983Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7504793608.6-0.1486.91350.910.7104
1983New York GiantsnygNFC East1631210.219267347-5.53.4261.31294.910.4338
1983Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1651100.313233322-6.73.6242.11291.710.3969
1983St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East168710.5313744282.5-3.6389.31406.910.4769
1983Washington RedskinswasNFC East1614200.87554133211.72.2536.51314.110.8121
1983Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West167900.4383703892.9-2.1395.71382.910.5272
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1983San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1610600.6254322935.73.0440.51301.310.7326
1982Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central97200.7782321773.60.3213.86178.760.6166
1982Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central94500.444140182-4.91.6137.36167.060.3903
1982Houston OilersotiAFC Central91800.111136245-4.0-7.2145.46246.260.2132
1982Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central96300.6672041463.51.9212.96164.360.6620
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1982Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East97200.7781981312.75.8205.76129.260.7614
1982New England PatriotsnweAFC East95400.556143157-3.51.4149.96168.860.4338
1982New York JetsnyjAFC East96300.6672451668.91.8261.56165.260.7714
1982Denver BroncosdenAFC West92700.222148226-6.1-3.8126.56215.660.2178
1982Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West93600.333176184-1.81.7165.26166.160.5015
1982Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West98100.8892602006.1-0.8236.36188.660.6466
1982San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West96300.66728822110.7-5.2277.76228.260.6343
1982Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West94500.444127147-7.52.0113.96163.460.3063
1982Chicago BearschiNFC Central93600.333141174-4.1-1.2144.56192.260.3374
1982Detroit LionsdetNFC Central94500.444181176-0.41.6177.86167.060.5432
1982Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central95310.6112261694.71.6223.76167.060.6819
1982Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central95400.5561871982.1-1.0200.36190.460.5369
1982Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central95400.556158178-0.51.2176.96170.660.5271
1982Dallas CowboysdalNFC East96300.6672261455.12.9227.36155.360.7279
1982New York GiantsnygNFC East94500.444164160-2.12.8162.56156.260.5286
1982Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East93600.3331911952.6-2.1204.86200.360.5190
1982St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East95400.556135170-4.11.4144.56168.860.4127
1982Washington RedskinswasNFC East98100.8891901282.25.1201.26135.560.7290
1982Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West95400.556183199-0.6-3.4176.06212.060.3893
1982Los Angeles RamsramNFC West92700.2222002500.8-8.0188.66253.460.3210
1982New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West94500.444129160-5.81.8129.26165.260.3636
1982San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West93600.3332092060.2-2.9183.26207.560.4266
1981Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1612400.7504213044.51.0402.73314.790.6482
1981Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1651100.313276375-4.1-2.4265.13369.190.3016
1981Houston OilersotiAFC Central167900.438281355-3.1-1.6281.13356.390.3529
1981Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central168800.5003562971.21.5349.93306.790.5774
1981Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1621400.125259533-3.8-12.0269.93522.790.1464
1981Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1610600.625311276-2.53.9290.73268.390.5438
1981Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611410.7193452750.12.8332.33285.990.5873
1981New England PatriotsnweAFC East1621400.125322370-0.6-3.1321.13380.390.3900
1981New York JetsnyjAFC East1610510.6563552870.21.7333.93303.590.5547
1981Denver BroncosdenAFC West1610600.625321289-1.62.9305.13284.390.5386
1981Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West169700.5633432900.42.8337.13285.990.5960
1981Oakland RaidersraiAFC West167900.438273343-3.60.0273.13330.790.3808
1981San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1610600.6254783909.2-4.7477.93405.990.6039
1981Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West1661000.375322388-0.1-3.2329.13381.990.4021
1981Chicago BearschiNFC Central1661000.375253324-4.41.5260.33306.790.3982
1981Detroit LionsdetNFC Central168800.5003973224.80.5407.53322.790.6411
1981Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168800.5003243610.7-2.3341.93367.590.4500
1981Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central167900.4383253690.0-2.1330.73364.390.4348
1981Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central169700.563315268-1.44.4308.33260.390.5964
1981Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7503672772.93.2377.13279.590.6746
1981New York GiantsnygNFC East169700.563295257-2.25.5295.53242.790.6108
1981Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1610600.6253682212.06.7362.73223.590.7601
1981St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East167900.4383154080.1-4.8332.33407.590.3675
1981Washington RedskinswasNFC East168800.5003473492.2-1.2365.93349.990.5243
1981Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West167900.4384263556.5-2.6434.73372.390.5963
1981Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1661000.375303351-1.4-1.0308.33346.790.4230
1981New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1641200.250207378-7.2-2.3215.53367.590.2108
1981San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1613300.8133572501.34.9351.53252.390.6883
1980Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1661000.375244312-4.50.8255.61314.810.3766
1980Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1611500.6883573101.70.1354.81326.010.5529
1980Houston OilersotiAFC Central1611500.688295251-2.74.4284.41257.210.5593
1980Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central169700.5633523132.4-0.1366.01329.210.5665
1980Baltimore ColtscltAFC East167900.4383553872.8-4.3372.41396.410.4593
1980Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1611500.688320260-1.65.5302.01239.610.6342
1980Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East168800.500266305-4.63.1254.01278.010.4464
1980New England PatriotsnweAFC East1610600.6254413256.8-0.3436.41332.410.6695
1980New York JetsnyjAFC East1641200.250302395-1.5-3.6303.61385.210.3536
1980Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.500310323-1.11.6310.01302.010.5158
1980Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West168800.500319336-0.80.3314.81322.810.4842
1980Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1611500.6883643062.91.3374.01306.810.6221
1980San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1611500.6884183276.5-0.4431.61334.010.6602
1980Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West1641200.250291408-1.6-3.7302.01386.810.3482
1980Chicago BearschiNFC Central167900.438304264-1.22.6308.41286.010.5456
1980Detroit LionsdetNFC Central169700.563334272-0.82.5314.81287.610.5548
1980Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1651010.344231371-5.8-3.2234.81378.810.2356
1980Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central169700.5633173080.0-0.3327.61332.410.4906
1980Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1651010.344271341-3.5-1.6271.61353.210.3431
1980Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7504543117.80.1452.41326.010.7011
1980New York GiantsnygNFC East1641200.250249425-4.3-5.5258.81415.610.2327
1980Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1612400.7503842222.96.8374.01218.810.7866
1980St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1651100.313299350-1.7-0.7300.41338.810.4256
1980Washington RedskinswasNFC East1661000.375261293-4.43.3257.21274.810.4606
1980Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1612400.7504052724.53.4399.61273.210.7221
1980Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1611500.6884242894.42.1398.01294.010.6826
1980New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1611500.063291487-1.1-9.4310.01478.010.2435
1980San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1661000.375320415-1.2-5.1308.41409.210.3266
1979Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1641200.2503374213.1-4.4370.75391.320.4667
1979Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central169700.5633593522.90.1367.55319.320.5896
1979Houston OilersotiAFC Central1611500.6883623312.91.4367.55298.520.6292
1979Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1612400.7504162626.85.1429.95239.320.8149
1979Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1651100.313271351-2.0-1.5289.15344.920.3941
1979Buffalo BillsbufAFC East167900.438268279-3.33.1268.35271.320.4951
1979Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1610600.6253412570.34.0325.95256.920.6422
1979New England PatriotsnweAFC East169700.5634113266.1-1.1418.75338.520.6359
1979New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.5003373831.1-4.0338.75384.920.4206
1979Denver BroncosdenAFC West1610600.625289262-1.65.7295.55229.720.6464
1979Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West167900.438238262-4.05.4257.15234.520.5550
1979Oakland RaidersraiAFC West169700.5633653373.80.0381.95320.920.6105
1979San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1612400.7504112466.05.7417.15229.720.8170
1979Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West169700.5633783724.9-2.3399.55357.720.5727
1979Chicago BearschiNFC Central1610600.625306249-2.22.1285.95287.320.4988
1979Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1621400.125219365-6.6-4.4215.55391.320.1899
1979Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1651100.313246316-5.3-1.5236.35344.920.2873
1979Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central167900.438259337-4.5-3.1249.15370.520.2750
1979Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1610600.625273237-4.61.8247.55292.120.4044
1979Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1611500.6883713133.00.3369.15316.120.5983
1979New York GiantsnygNFC East1661000.375237323-5.4-0.8234.75333.720.3014
1979Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1611500.6883392820.32.4325.95282.520.5884
1979St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1651100.313307358-0.7-2.0309.95352.920.4211
1979Washington RedskinswasNFC East1610600.6253482950.91.5335.55296.920.5768
1979Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1661000.375300388-1.9-4.7290.75396.120.3157
1979Los Angeles RamsramNFC West169700.563323309-1.20.6301.95311.320.4829
1979New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West168800.5003703602.3-3.5357.95376.920.4685
1979San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1621400.125308416-1.3-6.1300.35418.520.3015
1978Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1641200.250252284-2.71.3250.06272.520.4499
1978Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central168800.5003343562.5-4.5333.26365.320.4425
1978Houston OilersotiAFC Central1610600.625283298-0.60.2283.66290.120.4869
1978Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1614200.8753561952.65.6334.86203.720.7660
1978Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1651100.313239421-2.8-6.0248.46389.320.2476
1978Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1651100.313302354-0.1-3.2291.66344.520.3987
1978Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.6883722544.23.3360.46240.520.7295
1978New England PatriotsnweAFC East1611500.6883582863.61.4350.86270.920.6547
1978New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.5003593644.4-3.3363.66346.120.5320
1978Denver BroncosdenAFC West1610600.625282198-1.96.9262.86182.920.6955
1978Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1641200.250243327-3.0-1.4245.26315.720.3533
1978Oakland RaidersraiAFC West169700.5633112831.61.1318.86275.720.5882
1978San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West169700.5633553094.6-0.9366.86307.720.6093
1978Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West169700.5633453583.4-3.7347.66352.520.4917
1978Chicago BearschiNFC Central167900.438253274-2.70.3250.06288.520.4162
1978Detroit LionsdetNFC Central167900.438290300-0.1-1.7291.66320.520.4429
1978Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168710.531249269-2.21.6258.06267.720.4788
1978Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central168710.5312943061.0-1.1309.26310.920.4972
1978Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1651100.313241259-4.10.8227.66280.520.3805
1978Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7503842085.85.2386.06210.120.8158
1978New York GiantsnygNFC East1661000.375264298-1.1-1.3275.66314.120.4217
1978Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East169700.563270250-1.13.4275.66238.920.5839
1978St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1661000.375248296-2.60.0251.66293.320.4101
1978Washington RedskinswasNFC East168800.500273283-1.10.7275.66282.120.4866
1978Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West169700.563240290-3.7-0.9234.06307.720.3430
1978Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1612400.7503162451.31.9314.06262.920.6065
1978New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West167900.438281298-0.5-1.2285.26312.520.4450
1978San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1621400.125219350-4.6-4.5219.66365.320.2257
1977Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central148600.5712382350.61.6248.86218.060.5811
1977Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central146800.4292692672.40.1274.06239.060.5856
1977Houston OilersotiAFC Central148600.5712992304.42.3302.06208.260.7148
1977Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central149500.6432832433.92.3295.06208.260.7023
1977Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1410400.7142952213.61.5290.86219.460.6679
1977Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1431100.214160313-4.3-3.7180.26292.260.2437
1977Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1410400.7143131974.43.5302.06191.460.7531
1977New England PatriotsnweAFC East149500.6432782172.51.5275.46219.460.6369
1977New York JetsnyjAFC East1431100.214191300-3.8-2.0187.26268.460.3027
1977Denver BroncosdenAFC West1412200.8572741481.99.4267.06108.860.8862
1977Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1421200.1432253490.9-5.8253.06321.660.3578
1977Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1411300.7863512308.81.6363.66218.060.7861
1977San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West147700.500222205-1.45.2220.86167.660.6548
1977Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West145900.3572823734.2-8.6299.26360.860.3846
1977Chicago BearschiNFC Central149500.6432552530.0-3.6240.46290.860.3888
1977Detroit LionsdetNFC Central146800.429183252-4.4-3.0178.86282.460.2565
1977Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1441000.286134219-9.10.4113.06234.860.1693
1977Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central149500.643231227-1.0-0.6226.46248.860.4473
1977Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1421200.143103223-11.10.385.06236.260.1020
1977Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1412200.8573452127.60.2346.86237.660.7242
1977New York GiantsnygNFC East145900.357181265-4.0-2.2184.46271.260.2903
1977Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East145900.357220207-2.51.9205.46213.860.4802
1977St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East147700.5002722872.6-4.0276.86296.460.4607
1977Washington RedskinswasNFC East149500.643196189-3.12.6197.06204.060.4834
1977Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West147700.500179129-6.16.6155.06148.060.5279
1977Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1410400.7143021463.84.6293.66176.060.7748
1977New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1431100.2142323360.3-9.4244.66372.060.2595
1977San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West145900.357220260-1.1-2.7225.06278.260.3778
1976Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1410400.7143352105.05.1338.14196.690.7840
1976Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central149500.6432672870.7-2.4277.94301.690.4419
1976Houston OilersotiAFC Central145900.357222273-2.71.0230.34254.090.4346
1976Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1410400.7143421385.79.6347.94133.690.9010
1976Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1411300.7864172469.30.4398.34262.490.7394
1976Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1421200.143245363-2.5-6.7233.14361.890.2413
1976Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East146800.429263264-1.81.7242.94244.290.4898
1976New England PatriotsnweAFC East1411300.7863762366.52.2359.14237.290.7330
1976New York JetsnyjAFC East1431100.214169383-7.1-6.8168.74363.290.1254
1976Denver BroncosdenAFC West149500.6433152062.54.4303.14206.490.7105
1976Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West145900.3572903762.2-6.9298.94364.690.3672
1976Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1413100.9293502376.32.2356.34237.290.7289
1976San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West146800.429248285-1.70.5244.34261.090.4531
1976Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamAFC West1401400.000125412-10.8-8.8116.94391.290.0439
1976Chicago BearschiNFC Central147700.5002532160.34.2272.34209.290.6456
1976Detroit LionsdetNFC Central146800.429262220-0.63.4259.74220.490.5898
1976Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central145900.357218299-2.5-2.0233.14296.090.3508
1976Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1411210.8213051763.75.7319.94188.290.7765
1976Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1411300.7862961940.54.0275.14212.090.6444
1976New York GiantsnygNFC East1431100.214170250-5.52.1191.14238.690.3667
1976Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1441000.286165286-7.3-1.4165.94287.690.2077
1976St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1410400.7143092673.5-1.0317.14282.090.5665
1976Washington RedskinswasNFC East1410400.7142912171.21.8284.94242.890.5896
1976Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1441000.286172312-6.7-3.5174.34317.090.1849
1976Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1410310.7503511905.94.5350.74205.090.7840
1976New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1441000.286253346-0.6-5.5259.74345.090.3207
1976San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West148600.571270190-1.35.0249.94198.090.6264
1976Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1421200.143229429-2.2-12.9237.34448.690.1525
1975Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1411300.7863402464.02.9344.27247.560.6979
1975Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1431100.214218372-2.6-4.2251.87346.960.3097
1975Houston OilersotiAFC Central1410400.7142932261.25.2305.07215.360.7019
1975Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1412200.8573731625.48.8363.87164.960.8755
1975Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1410400.7143952696.32.2376.47257.360.7274
1975Buffalo BillsbufAFC East148600.57142035510.4-3.4433.87335.760.6671
1975Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1410400.7143572223.36.0334.47204.160.7725
1975New England PatriotsnweAFC East1431100.214258358-2.3-2.0256.07316.160.3729
1975New York JetsnyjAFC East1431100.214258433-1.2-7.1271.47387.560.2864
1975Denver BroncosdenAFC West146800.429254307-2.7-0.7250.47297.960.3959
1975Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West145900.357282341-0.6-3.7279.87339.960.3801
1975Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1411300.7863752555.51.3365.27269.960.6860
1975San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1421200.143189345-6.0-3.4204.27335.760.2289
1975Chicago BearschiNFC Central1441000.286191379-4.9-6.6219.67380.560.2012
1975Detroit LionsdetNFC Central147700.500245262-3.21.3243.47269.960.4391
1975Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1441000.286226285-3.3-0.9242.07300.760.3708
1975Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1412200.8573771803.55.4337.27212.560.7594
1975Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1410400.7143502684.00.1344.27286.760.6163
1975New York GiantsnygNFC East145900.357216306-6.2-0.6201.47296.560.2839
1975Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1441000.286225302-4.0-0.6232.27296.560.3562
1975St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1411300.7863562763.40.1335.87286.760.6009
1975Washington RedskinswasNFC East148600.5713252762.60.2324.67285.360.5826
1975Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1441000.286240289-2.7-0.8250.47299.360.3930
1975Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1412200.8573121350.58.7295.27166.360.7970
1975New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1421200.143165360-8.2-5.9173.47370.760.1347
1975San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West145900.357255286-2.2-2.5257.47323.160.3629
1974Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central147700.5002832591.90.2281.14251.740.5704
1974Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1441000.2862513440.5-4.7261.54320.340.3787
1974Houston OilersotiAFC Central147700.500236282-1.3-0.6236.34262.940.4391
1974Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1410310.7503051892.34.5286.74191.540.7270
1974Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1421200.143190329-4.6-4.1190.14311.940.2352
1974Buffalo BillsbufAFC East149500.643264244-0.31.4250.34234.940.5411
1974Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1411300.7863272163.92.3309.14222.340.6948
1974New England PatriotsnweAFC East147700.5003482896.6-1.8346.94279.740.6372
1974New York JetsnyjAFC East147700.5002793001.1-3.7269.94306.340.4247
1974Denver BroncosdenAFC West147610.5363022943.4-2.8302.14293.740.5209
1974Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West145900.357233293-1.3-1.1236.34269.940.4233
1974Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1412200.8573552286.42.7344.14216.740.7624
1974San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West145900.357212285-3.5-1.3205.54272.740.3403
1974Chicago BearschiNFC Central1441000.286152279-7.4-2.9150.94295.140.1747
1974Detroit LionsdetNFC Central147700.5002562700.5-2.1261.54283.940.4526
1974Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central146800.429210206-3.22.0209.74226.540.4582
1974Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1410400.7143101953.62.5304.94219.540.6937
1974Dallas CowboysdalNFC East148600.5712972354.01.9310.54227.940.6846
1974New York GiantsnygNFC East1421200.143195299-3.5-2.1205.54283.940.3182
1974Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East147700.5002422170.03.0254.54212.540.6085
1974St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1410400.7142852182.83.0293.74212.540.6896
1974Washington RedskinswasNFC East1410400.7143201965.74.5334.34191.540.7992
1974Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1431100.214111271-9.7-2.6118.74290.940.1161
1974Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1410400.714263181-0.14.0253.14198.540.6424
1974New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West145900.357166263-5.7-1.7174.74278.340.2533
1974San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West146800.429226236-2.1-0.5225.14261.540.4142
1973Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1410400.7142862310.12.9273.69231.750.5939
1973Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central147520.571234255-2.71.3234.49254.150.4463
1973Houston OilersotiAFC Central1411300.071199447-4.4-12.4210.69445.950.1205
1973Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1410400.7143472104.23.5331.09223.350.7207
1973Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1441000.286226341-2.4-5.9238.69354.950.2635
1973Buffalo BillsbufAFC East149500.643259230-1.72.2248.49241.550.5115
1973Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1412200.8573431505.18.3343.69156.150.8650
1973New England PatriotsnweAFC East145900.357258300-2.5-3.4237.29319.950.3172
1973New York JetsnyjAFC East1441000.286240306-1.5-1.3251.29290.550.4061
1973Denver BroncosdenAFC West147520.5713542965.4-2.5347.89307.350.5738
1973Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West147520.571231192-4.25.1213.49200.950.5293
1973Oakland RaidersraiAFC West149410.6792921750.06.6272.29179.950.7208
1973San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1421110.179188386-3.7-8.4220.49389.950.1851
1973Chicago BearschiNFC Central1431100.214195334-4.4-4.4210.69333.950.2376
1973Detroit LionsdetNFC Central146710.4642712470.81.2283.49255.550.5580
1973Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central145720.429202259-5.00.2202.29269.550.3300
1973Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1412200.8572961681.76.9296.09175.750.7704
1973Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1410400.7143822036.86.0367.49188.350.8343
1973New York GiantsnygNFC East1421110.179226362-2.8-4.7233.09338.150.2777
1973Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East145810.3933103933.5-7.7321.29380.150.3859
1973St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East144910.3212863651.8-5.1297.49343.750.4028
1973Washington RedskinswasNFC East1410400.7143251981.26.1289.09186.950.7334
1973Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West149500.6433182242.33.6304.49221.950.6787
1973Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1412200.8573881788.15.2385.69199.550.8340
1973New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West145900.357163312-7.0-1.7174.29296.150.2153
1973San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West145900.3572623191.4-1.6291.89294.750.4884
1972Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central148600.5712992291.23.0300.34241.590.6239
1972Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1410400.714268249-1.61.9261.14256.990.5028
1972Houston OilersotiAFC Central1411300.071164380-7.1-5.9184.14366.190.1475
1972Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1411300.7863431753.46.6331.14191.190.7856
1972Baltimore ColtscltAFC East145900.357235252-5.12.8212.14244.390.4102
1972Buffalo BillsbufAFC East144910.321257377-1.6-5.6261.14361.990.2961
1972Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1414001.0003851714.56.5346.54192.590.8023
1972New England PatriotsnweAFC East1431100.214192446-6.3-11.1195.34438.990.1047
1972New York JetsnyjAFC East147700.5003673244.7-4.2349.34342.390.5061
1972Denver BroncosdenAFC West145900.3573253502.9-4.7324.14349.390.4444
1972Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West148600.5712872540.42.2289.14252.790.5750
1972Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1410310.7503652485.03.0353.54241.590.7161
1972San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West144910.321264344-0.2-2.6280.74319.990.4111
1972Chicago BearschiNFC Central144910.321225275-2.81.5244.34262.590.4495
1972Detroit LionsdetNFC Central148510.6073392904.40.0345.14283.590.6159
1972Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1410400.7143042262.34.7315.74217.790.7063
1972Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central147700.5003012522.63.4319.94235.990.6731
1972Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1410400.7143192403.42.7331.14245.790.6712
1972New York GiantsnygNFC East148600.5713312473.52.4332.54249.990.6646
1972Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1421110.179145352-9.2-5.3154.74357.790.1084
1972St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East144910.321193303-4.5-1.2220.54300.390.3130
1972Washington RedskinswasNFC East1411300.7863362182.73.7321.34231.790.6849
1972Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West147700.500269274-2.30.4251.34277.990.4316
1972Los Angeles RamsramNFC West146710.4642912860.1-0.6284.94291.990.4777
1972New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1421110.179215361-5.3-5.0209.34353.590.2066
1972San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West148510.6073532494.91.5352.14262.590.6712
1971Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1441000.286284265-0.4-0.1265.37272.640.4793
1971Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central149500.6432852731.1-0.8286.37282.440.5046
1971Houston OilersotiAFC Central144910.321251330-3.0-3.8228.97324.440.2927
1971Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central146800.429246292-1.8-1.8245.77296.440.3825
1971Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1410400.7143131402.08.5298.97152.240.8264
1971Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1411300.071184394-4.5-8.9207.97395.840.1600
1971Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1410310.7503151742.45.3304.57197.040.7372
1971New England PatriotsnweAFC East146800.429238325-2.1-3.0241.57313.240.3404
1971New York JetsnyjAFC East146800.429212299-3.7-1.6219.17293.640.3254
1971Denver BroncosdenAFC West144910.321203275-5.51.0193.97257.240.3356
1971Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1410310.7503022080.64.5279.37208.240.6653
1971Oakland RaidersraiAFC West148420.6433442784.8-1.1338.17286.640.5999
1971San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West146800.4293113412.6-6.6307.37363.640.3885
1971Chicago BearschiNFC Central146800.429185276-4.41.1209.37255.840.3793
1971Detroit LionsdetNFC Central147610.5363412866.5-2.4361.97304.840.6055
1971Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central144820.3572742981.4-2.3290.57303.440.4687
1971Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1411300.786245139-3.49.9223.37132.640.7568
1971Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1411300.7864062228.31.6387.17248.840.7523
1971New York GiantsnygNFC East1441000.286228362-1.7-6.3247.17359.440.2751
1971Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East146710.464221302-2.7-1.6233.17293.640.3586
1971St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East144910.321231279-4.0-0.2214.97274.040.3542
1971Washington RedskinswasNFC East149410.679276190-0.65.8262.57190.040.6777
1971Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West147610.5362742770.31.0275.17257.240.5372
1971Los Angeles RamsramNFC West148510.6073132604.22.4329.77237.640.6894
1971New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West144820.3572663471.4-4.1290.57328.640.4182
1971San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West149500.6433002162.43.8304.57218.040.6893
1970Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central148600.5713122551.2-0.6286.47278.120.5201
1970Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central147700.5002862650.50.1276.67268.320.5206
1970Houston OilersotiAFC Central1431010.250217352-3.5-5.8220.67350.920.2408
1970Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central145900.357210272-5.9-1.5187.07290.720.2604
1970Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1411210.8213212340.9-0.5282.27276.720.5140
1970Boston PatriotsnweAFC East1421200.143149361-9.1-6.8142.27364.920.0943
1970Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1431010.250204337-5.8-6.5188.47360.720.1691
1970Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1410400.714297228-1.30.0251.47269.720.4591
1970New York JetsnyjAFC East1441000.286255286-2.2-2.7238.87307.520.3507
1970Denver BroncosdenAFC West145810.393253264-2.5-0.1234.67271.120.4152
1970Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West147520.571272244-0.11.6268.27247.320.5510
1970Oakland RaidersraiAFC West148420.6433002932.3-1.3301.87287.920.5314
1970San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West145630.4642822780.5-1.2276.67286.520.4800
1970Chicago BearschiNFC Central146800.4292562610.41.8275.27244.520.5734
1970Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1410400.7143472027.46.6373.27177.320.8647
1970Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central146800.429196293-2.40.6236.07261.320.4407
1970Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1412200.8573351435.99.2352.27140.920.9024
1970Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1410400.7142992212.54.5304.67206.720.7212
1970New York GiantsnygNFC East149500.6433012701.90.1296.27268.320.5630
1970Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1431010.250241332-0.9-3.6257.07320.120.3678
1970St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East148510.6073252283.83.6322.87219.320.7234
1970Washington RedskinswasNFC East146800.4292973143.6-0.6320.07278.120.5894
1970Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West144820.357206261-3.51.2220.67252.920.4211
1970Los Angeles RamsramNFC West149410.6793252024.45.3331.27195.520.7858
1970New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1421110.179172347-4.6-3.3205.27315.920.2606
1970San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1410310.7503522676.40.1359.27268.320.6799


Now, as an aside, I wouldn’t go plugging those directly into the log5 formula to predict this weekend’s games just yet. You first need to regress to the mean to account for the uncertainty we see in any observed result. To do that, just add about 17.65 games of .500 performance to each team’s pythagorean Wpct, and you’ll get a “true talent” number that should yield more accurate probabilities regarding future outcomes.

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