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2016 Pythagenpat Records

If you’re not familiar with how to calculate Pythagenpat records, you can read this post.

But the short version is, this is a slight upgrade on using Pythagorean records, which I assume most of you are familiar with. The formula to calculate a team’s Pythagorean winning percentage is always some variation of:

(Points Scored^2) / (Points Scored ^2 + Points Allowed^2)

Here, instead of using 2 as the exponent, we use a dynamic exponent that changes based on how much scoring occurs in each team’s games. Here are the 2016 Pythagenpat records:

RkTeamPointsPts AllPyth WinsAct WinsDiff
1NWE44125013.0141.0
2DAL42130611.1131.9
3ATL54040611.0110.0
4KAN38931110.2121.8
5PIT39932710.0111.0
6SEA3542929.910.50.6
7ARI4183629.57.5-2.0
8GNB4323889.1100.9
9DEN3332979.19-0.1
10PHI3673319.17-2.1
11NYG3102848.9112.1
12OAK4163858.8123.2
13BAL3433218.78-0.7
14MIN3273078.68-0.6
15BUF3993788.67-1.6
16IND4113928.58-0.5
17NOR4694548.47-1.4
18WAS3963838.48.50.1
19CIN3253158.36.5-1.8
20TEN3813788.190.9
21SDG4104237.75-2.7
22DET3463587.691.4
23TAM3543697.691.4
24MIA3633807.5102.5
25CAR3694027.16-1.1
26HOU2793286.492.6
27JAX3184005.73-2.7
28CHI2793994.63-1.6
29NYJ2754094.250.8
30SFO3094803.82-1.8
31CLE2644523.21-2.2
32LAR2243943.140.9

Unsurprisingly, the Patriots had by far the best Pythagenpat record in the league, and the best the NFL has seen since the 2013 Seahawks. If you use only the team’s final 12 games — i.e., when Tom Brady was active — New England’s Pythagenpat winning percentage would translate to 13.49 wins per 16 games played. That would be the best since the ’07 Patriots, and rank on the short list of dominant post-1978 teams. [1]The only teams with a better Pythagenpat winning percentage? The ’07 Patriots, ’99 Rams, ’98 Vikings, ’96 Packers, ’91 Redskins, ’85 Bears, and ’84 49ers.

Perhaps most interesting: the Jaguars and Chargers both underachieved by 2.7 wins last year, which might mean both are likely to improve in 2017. Meanwhile, the Raiders wildly overachieved by 3.2 wins, and the Texans and Dolphins both made the playoffs despite being outscored last year.

What stands out to you?

References

References
1 The only teams with a better Pythagenpat winning percentage? The ’07 Patriots, ’99 Rams, ’98 Vikings, ’96 Packers, ’91 Redskins, ’85 Bears, and ’84 49ers.
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