Games Started By Each Team’s Top 22 Starters

by Chase Stuart on June 20, 2015

The 2014 Cowboys had a lot of continuity on offense. Each of the team’s 11 main starters on offense started at least 11 games. Quarterback Tony Romo started 15 games, while running back DeMarco Murray, wide receivers Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, and tight end Jason Witten each started 16 games. The sixth non-lineman starter was usually James Hanna who started 12 games, but even that sells the team short. Hanna played in all 16 games, but started only 12; in four other games, Dallas instead started off with either slot receiver Cole Beasley, third-string tight end Gavin Escobar, or fullback Tyler Clutts on the field over a healthy Hanna.

On the offensive line, Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin each started 16 games and made the Pro Bowl; left guard Ronald Leary started 15 games, with the most major injury hitting right tackle Doug Free, who missed three games in the middle of the year with a foot injury, and the final two games (and both playoff games) with an ankle injury.

Things were only slightly hairier on defense. In the secondary, safeties Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox started every game, while cornerback Brandon Carr also played the full slate. Orlando Scandrick started the final 14 games of the year at corner after being suspended for the first two games of the year.

On the defensive line, Jeremy Mincey and Nick Hayden started 16 games, Tyrone Crawford started 15, and George Selvie started 13 games (but played in all 16). The most serious injuries came at linebacker: Rolando McClain started 12 games, Anthony Hitchens started 11, and Bruce Carter started 8 games. Of course, Sean Lee also missed the entire season after tearing his ACL in May.

If you sort the Cowboys roster by number of starts, the top 22 players started 318 games, or 14.5 games per play. That, as you might have guessed, was the most of any team last season:

Rk	Tm	Avg of Top 22
1	DAL	14.5
2	GNB	14.4
3	MIA	14.3
4	CIN	14
5	DEN	13.9
6	BAL	13.8
8	PHI	13.7
8	HOU	13.7
8	DET	13.7
10	KAN	13.6
11	IND	13.6
12	ATL	13.5
13	SEA	13.5
14.5	NYJ	13.4
14.5	BUF	13.4
17	SFO	13.3
17	STL	13.3
17	PIT	13.3
19	SDG	13.3
20	OAK	13.2
21	WAS	13.1
22	CHI	13
23.5	MIN	12.9
23.5	ARI	12.9
25	NOR	12.8
26	NYG	12.7
27.5	NWE	12.6
27.5	CAR	12.6
29	CLE	12.6
30	TAM	12.5
31	JAX	12.4
32	TEN	12.3

While Dallas looks pretty good in this analysis, it’s far from exceptional historically. ^[1]This, at least in part, is due to more specialization in today’s games, and teams being more likely to change the starting lineup (going with three receivers or a fullback instead of two tight … Continue reading Since 1978, 185 teams have had their top 22 starters average at least 14.5 starts.

The table below lists the top 56 teams (a 9-way tie at 48 enlarged a top-50 list) by this metric since 1978. I’ve also displayed each team’s winning percentage in Year N and in Year N+1, with Year N being the initial year in question.

Rk	Tm	Avg of Top 22	Year	Win %	N+1 Win %
1	GNB	15.8	1978	0.531	0.313
2	CIN	15.5	1988	0.75	0.5
3	TAM	15.5	2000	0.625	0.563
4	PHI	15.5	1980	0.75	0.625
5.5	KAN	15.4	2003	0.813	0.438
5.5	MIN	15.4	1994	0.625	0.5
7	NYJ	15.4	2002	0.563	0.375
8	DEN	15.3	1996	0.813	0.75
10	DAL	15.3	1994	0.75	0.75
10	RAI	15.3	1983	0.75	0.688
10	BUF	15.3	1980	0.688	0.625
13	SFO	15.2	2001	0.75	0.625
13	RAI	15.2	1990	0.75	0.563
13	HOU	15.2	1990	0.563	0.688
15.5	SDG	15.2	1994	0.688	0.563
15.5	RAI	15.2	1993	0.625	0.563
19	NYJ	15.1	2001	0.625	0.563
19	HOU	15.1	1991	0.688	0.625
19	HOU	15.1	1988	0.625	0.563
19	CLE	15.1	1986	0.75	0.667
19	HOU	15.1	1979	0.688	0.688
24.5	PHO	15.1	1990	0.313	0.25
24.5	HOU	15.1	1985	0.313	0.313
24.5	DAL	15.1	1983	0.75	0.563
24.5	DAL	15.1	1980	0.75	0.75
24.5	CLE	15.1	1980	0.688	0.313
24.5	ATL	15.1	1978	0.563	0.375
28.5	DEN	15	1998	0.875	0.375
28.5	PHO	15	1988	0.438	0.313
33	TAM	15	2001	0.563	0.75
33	WAS	15	1999	0.625	0.5
33	STL	15	1999	0.813	0.625
33	ATL	15	1981	0.438	0.556
33	BUF	15	1979	0.438	0.688
33	ATL	15	1979	0.375	0.75
33	DAL	15	1978	0.75	0.688
41.5	ATL	15	1998	0.875	0.313
41.5	TEN	15	1997	0.5	0.5
41.5	DET	15	1995	0.625	0.313
41.5	RAI	15	1991	0.563	0.438
41.5	MIA	15	1990	0.75	0.5
41.5	CIN	15	1985	0.438	0.625
41.5	WAS	15	1983	0.875	0.688
41.5	SFO	15	1981	0.813	0.333
41.5	CHI	15	1980	0.438	0.375
41.5	NWE	15	1978	0.688	0.563
51	CAR	14.9	2005	0.688	0.5
51	IND	14.9	2000	0.625	0.375
51	GNB	14.9	1989	0.625	0.375
51	NYG	14.9	1986	0.875	0.4
51	PHI	14.9	1985	0.438	0.344
51	NOR	14.9	1983	0.5	0.438
51	DET	14.9	1981	0.5	0.444
51	RAM	14.9	1978	0.75	0.563
51	MIN	14.9	1978	0.531	0.438

As you might suspect, these teams tended to fare better in Year N than they did the following year. While some regression to the mean is expected, these 56 teams had an average winning percentage of 0.640 in Year N, and then 0.519 in Year N+1. This is too general a study from which to conclude much, if anything, about the 2015 Cowboys. It should go without saying that “starts” are not a perfect proxy for “team health” and even if it were, “team health” is not a good proxy for “amount by which a team was helped/harmed by injuries.” But I did find today’s results interesting enough to share.

References[+]

References
↑1	This, at least in part, is due to more specialization in today’s games, and teams being more likely to change the starting lineup (going with three receivers or a fullback instead of two tight ends, starting in nickel rather than a traditional base defense, etc.

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