This season, Kansas City cornerback Marcus Peters ran away with the award, taking 45 of 50 votes (Buffalo cornerback Ronald Darby (4) and Jets defensive end/tackle Leonard Williams (1) had the remaining votes). Now, how often does the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year wind up leading his draft class in AV? We saw that yesterday, 9 of the first 40 AP OROY wound up being the career leader from their class in offensive AV. On the defensive side, the results were even grimmer: just six of the first 40 AP DROY winners led their draft class in AV: Jack Lambert, Mike Haynes, Lawrence Taylor, Charles Woodson, Brian Urlacher, and Julius Peppers.
The table below shows the results from every season. Here’s how to read the table, using the 2004 line as an example. That year, Jonathan Vilma was the AP DROY, and produced 10 points of career AV. He finished his career with 57 points of career AV, while Jared Allen is the career leader in defensive AV from the class of ’04 with 99 points of career AV.
From 2007, Patrick Willis is still the career leader in AV among defensive players, but he will almost certainly be passed by Darrelle Revis. In 2008, the current 9 leaders in AV all are offensive players. Among active players, Donald, Kuechly, and Suh sure look like decent bets to continue their dominant play, but studies like this are good ways to remind the power of The Field.
- Since no undrafted player has ever won Offensive or Defensive Rookie of the Year, I have limited this analysis to only drafted players for administrative convenience. [↩]