Bryan Frye is back with another fun guest post.  Bryan, as you may recall, owns and operates his own great site at http://www.thegridfe.com/, where he focuses on NFL stats and history.  You can view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link.

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Reggie Wayne has been in the news recently because Chuck Pagano called a pair of late-game pass plays in order to stretch Wayne’s streak of consecutive games with at least three receptions to 81 games. ^[1]That number has since grown to 82. Frankly, I don’t care to criticize either of them for that. What I do want to do is acknowledge an impressive record from a great player and discuss whether or not he is likely to join fellow greats in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. ^[2]And yes, it is a very impressive streak, regardless of how it was achieved. According to Pro Football Reference, the second longest such streak is Cris Carter’s 58 from 1993-1997.

Hall of Fame voters don’t seem to care too much about advanced stats, so I won’t bother covering anything beyond simple box score numbers. ^[3]However, if you do want a more in depth look at receiving stats, check out Chase’s series on the greatest wide receivers of all time. What voters do seem to care about are counting stats and a good story, or a combination thereof. Without any more ado, let’s get into the stats and the narrative.

The Stats

Currently ranks 7th all-time in receptions, 8th all-time in receiving yards, and 22nd all-time in receiving touchdowns. I am making the assumption that he will play a few more years at a diminishing level until he retires. That will leave us with a few questions about his statistical merits.

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During the 2013 offseason, I wrote 32 articles under the RPO 2013 tag. In my Predictions in Review series, I review those preview articles with the benefit of hindsight. Previously, I reviewed the AFC West and the NFC West. Today, the AFC South, beginning with a straightforward case in Tennessee.

Can Kenny Britt become the next great wide receiver?, July 9, 2013

Spoiler alert: Kenny Britt did not become the next great wide receiver, at least in 2013 (apparently, I still can’t quit him). Britt is an easy player to fall in love with, if you ignored the warning signs. He was just 20 years old when he played in his first NFL game in 2009. In 2010, he led all players in yards per route run according to Pro Football Focus, but his raw numbers underhwlemed because the Titans were a run-heavy team and Britt missed 30% of the season with a hamstring injury. In 2011, he matched his elite YPRR production, but a torn ACL/MCL tear ended his season after 94 pass routes.

He struggled in 2012, but I was willing to write that off due to recovering from the ugly knee injury, additional hamstring and ankle injuries, and a first-year starter in Jake Locker. That set up 2013 as a season where I thought Britt had great breakout potential. I interviewed Thomas Gower, of Total Titans and Football Outsiders, and asked him his thoughts. Gower was more pessimistic than I was about Britt, and for good reason.

As it turned out, Britt never seemed quite right mentally (in more ways than one); he struggled with drops and was eventually dropped behind Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright on the depth chart. He finished the year with 11 catches for only 96 yards and no touchdowns. In late December, Britt said he would definitely be a #1 wide receiver somewhere in 2014, which means I’m susceptible to falling into the Britt trap again. [continue reading…]

Last week, I wrote about how the 2012 Redskins were powered by a pair of rookies in Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris. The only team whose rookies had more passing/rushing/receiving yards in NFL history was the 2012 Colts, while the only non-expansion team with a higher percentage of yards from rookies was the ’55 Colts.

In the comments, Shattenjager pointed out that the list I presented was pretty quarterback-heavy. So I thought a fun thing to do would be to use PFR’s Approximate Value (AV) system instead of yards, and re-run the numbers.

The table below shows all non-expansion teams since 1950 that had at least 25% of their AV come from rookies. For each team, I’ve listed their record and winning percentage, total team AV, their rookie AV, and the percentage compiled by rookies. Then I listed their top four rookies in terms of AV.
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Five years ago, Doug wrote an interesting post about game-winning touchdowns. Let’s be clear: tracking things like game-winning touchdowns is only interesting in a trivial sort way, but hey, it’s April.

Football doesn’t have a statistic like “game-winning RBIs” the way baseball does, although my friend Scott Kacsmar has been doing a great job tracking 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives for quarterbacks. I was wondering which players have scored the most game-winning touchdowns in the 4th quarter or overtime, and fortunately I have the data to answer that pretty easily. I looked at all games, regular and postseason, in all leagues, from 1940 to 2012, and counted all touchdowns scored that put the player’s team ahead for good (with one exception: I did not count touchdowns scored when down by 7 and the team successfully went for two afterwards).

The table below lists all players with at least five such touchdowns and the teams for which they scored those touchdowns.

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I’ve noted a few times this year that Calvin Johnson, in his pursuit of Jerry Rice’s single-season receiving record, has quite an advantage on his side. The Lions have attempted more passes through 13 games of any team ever, and seem likely to break the pass attempts record.

Obviously it’s easier to gain more receiving yards when your team is throwing the ball nearly every play. That’s why when I came up with my Greatest WR Ever series, I looked at receiver performance per pass attempt.

I don’t have time for a nuanced analysis of wide receiver, but let’s just look at a simple statistic: receiving yards per team pass attempt. That’s what the table below shows, along with each player’s rank in receiving yards (the far left column). Brandon Marshall has 1,342 receiving yards while the Bears have only attempted 444 passes this year (including sacks). That means he’s averaging more than three yards per team pass attempt, which is incredible. Of course, it also speaks to the lack of other weapons in Chicago.

Ryds Rk	Player	Tm	Rec	Ryds	TD	TMATT	Yds/Att	Y/A Rk
2	Brandon Marshall	CHI	101	1342	9	444	3.02	1
7	Vincent Jackson	TAM	56	1145	8	442	2.59	2
4	Andre Johnson	HOU	82	1209	3	471	2.57	3
1	Calvin Johnson	DET	96	1546	5	618	2.5	4
6	A.J. Green	CIN	79	1151	10	478	2.41	5
5	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	74	1197	8	503	2.38	6
12	Steve Smith	CAR	60	999	2	425	2.35	7
9	Wes Welker	NWE	95	1116	4	519	2.15	8
3	Reggie Wayne	IND	94	1220	4	569	2.14	9
8	Roddy White	ATL	77	1140	5	535	2.13	10
11	Victor Cruz	NYG	76	1004	9	479	2.1	11
14	Brian Hartline	MIA	62	925	1	442	2.09	12
28	Michael Crabtree	SFO	66	761	5	383	1.99	13
13	Julio Jones	ATL	63	997	7	535	1.86	14
22	Dwayne Bowe	KAN	59	801	3	436	1.84	15
10	Dez Bryant	DAL	75	1028	9	567	1.81	16
45	Sidney Rice	SEA	45	658	7	365	1.8	17
26	Steve Johnson	BUF	61	776	5	432	1.8	18
24	Davone Bess	MIA	61	778	1	442	1.76	19
19	Anquan Boldin	BAL	58	828	4	482	1.72	20
35	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	52	728	2	435	1.67	21
31	Mike Williams	TAM	46	736	7	442	1.67	22
20	Cecil Shorts	JAX	43	824	7	500	1.65	23
39	Greg Olsen	CAR	54	691	5	425	1.63	24
25	Randall Cobb	GNB	71	777	7	484	1.61	25
15	Marques Colston	NOR	65	889	8	559	1.59	26
42	Percy Harvin	MIN	62	677	3	429	1.58	27
23	Eric Decker	DEN	64	790	8	503	1.57	28
29	Torrey Smith	BAL	43	753	7	482	1.56	29
18	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	81	831	7	535	1.55	30
16	Jason Witten	DAL	92	880	1	567	1.55	31
27	Malcom Floyd	SDG	54	775	5	503	1.54	32
17	Lance Moore	NOR	53	848	4	559	1.52	33
32	Josh Gordon	CLE	42	732	5	487	1.5	34
21	Miles Austin	DAL	55	819	5	567	1.44	35
30	Rob Gronkowski	NWE	53	748	10	519	1.44	36
34	Mike Wallace	PIT	59	728	8	509	1.43	37
47	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	50	652	3	479	1.36	38
44	Jordy Nelson	GNB	46	658	6	484	1.36	39
59	Brandon LaFell	CAR	34	577	4	425	1.36	40
72	Golden Tate	SEA	37	492	7	365	1.35	41
40	Heath Miller	PIT	61	679	7	509	1.33	42
52	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	55	636	5	478	1.33	43
70	Vernon Davis	SFO	38	506	5	383	1.32	44
53	Owen Daniels	HOU	52	622	6	471	1.32	45
49	Nate Washington	TEN	39	648	4	499	1.3	46
33	Brandon Myers	OAK	70	728	4	561	1.3	47
38	DeSean Jackson	PHI	45	700	2	541	1.29	48
36	Jimmy Graham	NOR	64	710	8	559	1.27	49
58	Chris Givens	STL	36	584	3	464	1.26	50

Let’s start with some trivia before moving to today’s post:

• Only two quarterback-receiver pairs have ever topped the 10,000 yard mark. Can you name them?

  Hint:	SelectShow
  The same quarterback was part of both pairs.

• Only two receivers (minimum: 7,000 yards) gained at least 93% of their career receiving yards from one quarterback. Do you know who they are?

  Hint:	SelectShow
  The same quarterback was part of both pairs, but this is a different quarterback than from question 1.

• Two of the men in the top ten in career receiving yards can credit the same quarterback account for more of their yards than any other passer. Can you name that quarterback?

  Hint	SelectShow
  The receivers won a Super Bowl ring, but the quarterback never did.

• Can you name the receiver who gained over 10,000 yards in his career, but the quarterback from whom he gained the most yards was… Quincy Carter?

  Hint	SelectShow
  Spoiler: Quincy Carter wasn’t very good.

• Among the top twenty-five leaders in career receiving yards, can you guess which player was the only one to fail to catch at least 20% of his yards from a single quarterback?

  Hint	SelectShow
  One of his quarterbacks was Dan Marino.

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On Tuesday, I looked at running back records and argued that Steven Jackson had taken the mantle from Ollie Matson as the most prominent elite running back to have toiled for losing teams for the majority of his career. It’s easy to feel bad for a player like Jackson, relegated to consistent attack as the focal point of opposing defenses for a decade, continuously grinding out yardage while playing for bad teams.

Things are a little different for wide receivers. In fact, it’s often easier for wide receivers to produce better stats while playing for bad teams, since trailing teams are forced to throw later in games. Further, wide receivers don’t face the constant pounding that running backs encounter, making them slightly less sympathetic figures. Still, it’s an interesting question, and one that’s easy enough to answer. Which wide receivers have played for the best and worst teams? Any guesses? The results, after the jump.

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