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Last week, I looked at how the Big 12 schedule was backloaded. There are four top teams in the conference, and the six-game round robin among those teams was placed at the back third of each team’s schedule. So far, just two of those six games have been played: Oklahoma State beat TCU last weekend, and Oklahoma beat Baylor last night. That means the winner in Bedlam in two weeks — which takes place in Stillwater — has a leg up on the rest of the conference. The winner in Bedlam will be the Big 12 champion assuming they win next weekend. Of course, that’s no sure thing, given that next week Oklahoma hosts TCU and Oklahoma State hosts Baylor. And yes, for those keeping score at home, that does mean the Cowboys got home draws against TCU, Baylor, and OU this year.

If the Bedlam winner wins next week, too, they are almost certainly going to make the college football playoff. The only way they don’t is if literally everything here happens:

  • Ohio Sate beats Michigan State, Michigan, and wins in the B10 Championship Game
  • Notre Dame wins in Boston against Boston College and in Palo Alto against Stanford
  • Clemson beats Wake Forest and South Carolina and then wins in the ACC Championship Game
  • The winner of the SEC Championship Game wins their in-state rivalry game (UF-FSU and Bama-Auburn)
  • The committee decides that Notre Dame is more deserving than the B12 champ.

The odds of that happening would be, by my back-of-the-envelope calculations, under five percent. So while the Big 12 won’t occupy a top four spot in this week’s playoff standings, and may even fail to place a team in the top five, there’s little reason to think the B12 won’t send a team to the playoffs for the second year in a row. That is, unless the Bedlam winner loses at home next week.

Below are the SRS ratings through eleven weeks. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs.

RkTeamConfDivConf RkGMOVSOSSRSREC
1OklahomaB12B1211021.342.7649-1
2AlabamaSECSEC-West11016.346.362.69-1
3ClemsonACCACC-Atl11017.444.261.610-0
4Ohio StateB10B10-East11020.539.159.510-0
5Notre DameIndInd-West11013.44659.49-1
6BaylorB12B12292236.958.98-1
7North CarolinaACCACC-Coas21019.138.457.59-1
8MichiganB10B10-East21015.640.4568-2
9Oklahoma StB12B1231016.938.855.710-0
10StanfordP12P12-North11013.941.755.68-2
11Southern CalP12P12-South21010.844.355.17-3
12NavyAmerAmer-West1916.538.454.98-1
13Florida StACCACC-Atl31012.242.654.88-2
14FloridaSECSEC-East21012.541.854.39-1
15TCUB12B1241015.738.554.29-1
16IowaB10B10-West31013.840.354.110-0
17TennesseeSECSEC-East3109.344.653.96-4
18MississippiSECSEC-West41012.241.253.47-3
19LSUSECSEC-West598.744.653.37-2
20UtahP12P12-South3109.743.4538-2
21WisconsinB10B10-West41013.638.351.98-2
22Mississippi StSECSEC-West61011.540.351.87-3
23Bowling GreenMACMAC-East1101536.851.88-2
24Michigan StB10B10-East5109.841.951.79-1
25HoustonAmerAmer-West21019.631.651.210-0
26MemphisAmerAmer-West31012.638.651.28-2
27West VirginiaB12B12593.647.250.85-4
28ArkansasSECSEC-West7105.944.950.86-4
29PittsburghACCACC-Coas4105.145.350.47-3
30CaliforniaP12P12-North4107.142.849.96-4
31UCLAP12P12-South5108.341.549.87-3
32ToledoMACMAC-West2914.833.948.78-1
33North Carolina StACCACC-Atl51010.338.448.76-4
34OregonP12P12-North6105.742.4487-3
35Georgia TechACCACC-Coas6102.245.8483-7
36WashingtonP12P12-North7103.544.247.64-6
37GeorgiaSECSEC-East810839.747.67-3
38Penn StateB10B10-East610740.647.57-3
39LouisvilleACCACC-Atl7103.943.647.56-4
40Texas A&MSECSEC-West910542.547.57-3
41Virginia TechACCACC-Coas8104.642.146.75-5
42Texas TechB12B126112.244.346.56-5
43NorthwesternB10B10-West7103.742.446.18-2
44TempleAmerAmer-East41011.534.6468-2
45NebraskaB10B10-West8114.840.745.55-6
46Washington StP12P12-North810540.445.47-3
47Brigham YoungIndInd-West2106.538.645.17-3
48Georgia SouthernSunSun1914.430.6457-2
49Boise StMWCMWC-Mntn11014.230.644.87-3
50AuburnSECSEC-West1010-0.945.644.75-5
51DukeACCACC-Coas9105.139.344.46-4
52South FloridaAmerAmer-East510638.344.36-4
53Western KentuckyCUSACUSA-East11013.930.444.28-2
54Northern IllinoisMACMAC-West31011.132.743.77-3
55Kansas StB12B1279-2.545.743.23-6
56Arizona StP12P12-South910-0.343.443.15-5
57IllinoisB10B10-West910-0.743.642.95-5
58Appalachian StSunSun21015.527.142.58-2
59Louisiana TechCUSACUSA-West21012.729.642.37-3
60Miami FLACCACC-Coas1010-0.84342.26-4
61Central MichiganMACMAC-West4103.338.7425-5
62ArizonaP12P12-South10111.640.4426-5
63CincinnatiAmerAmer-East610834.1426-4
64Iowa StB12B12810-6.448.4423-7
65San Diego StMWCMWC-West21011.430.341.77-3
66Western MichiganMACMAC-West510635.741.76-4
67TexasB12B12910-5.146.641.54-6
68Air ForceMWCMWC-Mntn3101130.241.27-3
69Utah StMWCMWC-Mntn4104.336.240.55-5
70VirginiaACCACC-Coas1110-747.340.43-7
71MissouriSECSEC-East1110-0.240.340.15-5
72MarshallCUSACUSA-East31115.324.139.49-2
73East CarolinaAmerAmer-East710-2.141.439.34-6
74South CarolinaSECSEC-East1210-5.544.739.23-7
75MarylandB10B10-East1010-10.449.639.22-8
76MinnesotaB10B10-West1110-4.943.738.84-6
77Boston CollegeACCACC-Atl1210-139.738.73-7
78SyracuseACCACC-Atl1310-5.643.938.33-7
79VanderbiltSECSEC-East1310-1.839.938.14-6
80IndianaB10B10-East1210-5.943.9384-6
81Southern MissCUSACUSA-West41013.324.637.97-3
82Arkansas StSunSun310730377-3
83ConnecticutAmerAmer-East8100.436.436.85-5
84Wake ForestACCACC-Atl1410-6.242.536.33-7
85KentuckySECSEC-East1410-6.741.935.24-6
86Middle Tennessee StCUSACUSA-East5101.433.134.55-5
87PurdueB10B10-West1310-9.543.834.32-8
88TulsaAmerAmer-West910-1.936.234.35-5
89BuffaloMACMAC-East6101.732.534.25-5
90ColoradoP12P12-South1111-2.436.534.14-7
91Ohio U.MACMAC-East7102.231.333.46-4
92RutgersB10B10-East1410-9.842.432.73-7
93San José StMWCMWC-West510-0.833.232.44-6
94TroySunSun410-2.935.332.43-7
95AkronMACMAC-East810-0.131.731.65-5
96Colorado StMWCMWC-Mntn6100.830.130.95-5
97UNLVMWCMWC-West710-3.133.430.33-7
98Oregon StP12P12-North1210-14.443.929.52-8
99NevadaMWCMWC-West8100.228.428.56-4
100Florida Int'lCUSACUSA-East6111.725.627.35-6
101New MexicoMWCMWC-Mntn9100.926.427.26-4
102TulaneAmerAmer-West1010-12.939.426.53-7
103SMUAmerAmer-West1110-17.143.526.41-9
104MassachusettsMACMAC-East910-10.436.325.92-8
105ArmyIndInd-West310-5.931.325.42-8
106Ball StMACMAC-West1010-9.234.425.23-7
107Louisiana-LafayetteSunSun59-1.426.625.14-5
108KansasB12B121010-23.748.524.80-10
109South AlabamaSunSun69-7.231.524.35-4
110Florida AtlanticCUSACUSA-East710-7.930.822.92-8
111Kent StMACMAC-East1110-9.832.722.93-7
112Georgia StSunSun79-5.227.922.73-6
113Texas-San AntonioCUSACUSA-West810-9.131.522.42-8
114Fresno StMWCMWC-West1010-12.534.722.23-7
115RiceCUSACUSA-West910-8.730.321.74-6
116IdahoSunSun810-11.532.821.33-7
117Texas St-San MarcosSunSun99-11.832.220.42-7
118Miami OHMACMAC-East1211-13.833.920.12-9
119Hawai`iMWCMWC-West1111-1635.519.62-9
120Central FloridaAmerAmer-East1210-18.137.419.30-10
121WyomingMWCMWC-Mntn1211-15.934.518.61-10
122Louisiana-MonroeSunSun1010-16.83518.21-9
123New Mexico StSunSun119-14.732.417.72-7
124Old DominionCUSACUSA-East1010-9.927.417.65-5
125Eastern MichiganMACMAC-West1311-16.43215.61-10
126North TexasCUSACUSA-West1110-22.437.715.41-9
127UTEPCUSACUSA-West1210-1227.115.14-6
128UNC-CharlotteCUSACUSA-East1310-13.328.2152-8

As you can see, Oklahoma ranks as the top team in the SRS. If you are curious why, you can see the results of every single FBS game this year at the always-updated NCAA games page at the top of this site. Oklahoma scored a 34.5 for that loss to Texas, but other than a 14-point win over Tulsa, the Sooners have scored a 61 or higher in every game this year. That’s highlighted by a 55-point road win over Kansas State (84.2 SRS rating for that game), 36-point home win over Texas Tech (75.0), 10-point road win at Baylor (71.9),1 and 36-point home win over Iowa State (70.5).

What about the best wins of the week? That honor belongs to Alabama, who suffered no let down this week. The Crimson Tide obliterated Mississippi State after dominating LSU a week ago. Despite the dynasty being over, Alabama seems to be doing okay.

DateTm_ConfPFOppPAH/RW/LDiffMOVOpp_ConfSOSSRS
11-14-2015Alabama_SEC31Mississippi St6RoadWin2526SEC51.877.8
11-14-2015Arkansas_SEC31LSU14RoadWin1720SEC53.373.3
11-14-2015Oklahoma_B1244Baylor34RoadWin1013B1258.971.9
11-14-2015North Carolina_ACC59Miami FL21HomeWin3829.5ACC42.271.7
11-14-2015Ohio State_B1028Illinois3RoadWin2526B1042.968.9
11-14-2015Pittsburgh_ACC31Duke13RoadWin1821ACC44.465.4
11-14-2015South Florida_Amer44Temple23HomeWin2118Amer4664
11-14-2015Marshall_CUSA52Florida Int'l0HomeWin5236.5CUSA27.363.8
11-14-2015Georgia Southern_Sun45Troy10RoadWin3531Sun32.463.4
11-14-2015Florida St_ACC34North Carolina St17HomeWin1714ACC48.762.7
11-14-2015Southern Miss_CUSA65Rice10RoadWin5541CUSA21.762.7
11-14-2015Oregon_P1238Stanford36RoadWin27P1255.662.6
11-14-2015Arizona_P1237Utah30HomeWin77P125360
11-11-2015Bowling Green_MAC41Western Michigan27RoadWin1417MAC41.758.7
11-14-2015Navy_Amer55SMU14HomeWin4131Amer26.457.4
11-14-2015Washington St_P1231UCLA27RoadWin47P1249.856.8
11-14-2015West Virginia_B1238Texas20HomeWin1815B1241.556.5
11-14-2015Texas Tech_B1259Kansas St44HomeWin1512B1243.255.2
11-14-2015California_P1254Oregon St24HomeWin3025.5P1229.555
11-12-2015Virginia Tech_ACC23Georgia Tech21RoadWin27ACC4855
11-14-2015New Mexico_MWC31Boise St24RoadWin710MWC44.754.7
11-14-2015Georgia_SEC20Auburn13RoadWin710SEC44.754.7
11-14-2015Arizona St_P1227Washington17HomeWin107P1247.654.6
11-14-2015Notre Dame_Ind28Wake Forest7HomeWin2118ACC36.354.3
11-14-2015Michigan St_B1024Maryland7HomeWin1714B1039.253.2
11-14-2015Nebraska_B1031Rutgers14RoadWin1720B1032.752.7
11-14-2015Florida_SEC24South Carolina14RoadWin1013SEC39.252.2
11-14-2015Missouri_SEC20Brigham Young16NeutWin47Ind45.152.1
11-14-2015Clemson_ACC37Syracuse27RoadWin1013ACC38.351.3
11-14-2015Memphis_Amer34Houston35RoadLoss-10Amer51.251.2
11-14-2015Houston_Amer35Memphis34HomeWin10Amer51.251.2
11-14-2015Baylor_B1234Oklahoma44HomeLoss-10-13B126451
11-14-2015Arkansas St_Sun59Louisiana-Monroe21RoadWin3832.5Sun18.250.7
11-10-2015Toledo_MAC28Central Michigan23RoadWin58MAC4250
11-14-2015Oklahoma St_B1235Iowa St31RoadWin47B124249
11-14-2015Iowa St_B1231Oklahoma St35HomeLoss-4-7B1255.748.7
11-14-2015Syracuse_ACC27Clemson37HomeLoss-10-13ACC61.648.6
11-14-2015Appalachian St_Sun47Idaho20RoadWin2727Sun21.348.3
11-11-2015Northern Illinois_MAC41Buffalo30RoadWin1114MAC34.248.2
11-13-2015Colorado_P1224Southern Cal27HomeLoss-3-7P1255.148.1
11-14-2015Michigan_B1048Indiana41RoadWin710B103848
11-14-2015Air Force_MWC35Utah St28HomeWin77MWC40.547.5
11-14-2015Louisville_ACC38Virginia31HomeWin77ACC40.447.4
11-14-2015Kansas_B1217TCU23RoadLoss-6-7B1254.247.2
11-14-2015Minnesota_B1035Iowa40RoadLoss-5-7B1054.147.1
11-14-2015Fresno St_MWC42Hawai`i14RoadWin2827.5MWC19.647.1
11-10-2015Ohio U._MAC27Kent St0HomeWin2724MAC22.946.9
11-14-2015Texas A&M_SEC41Western Carolina17HomeWin2421fcs25.646.6
11-14-2015San Diego St_MWC38Wyoming3HomeWin3528MWC18.646.6
11-14-2015Indiana_B1041Michigan48HomeLoss-7-10B105646
11-14-2015Iowa_B1040Minnesota35HomeWin57B1038.845.8
11-14-2015Georgia St_Sun41Texas St-San Marcos19RoadWin2224.5Sun20.444.9
11-14-2015Cincinnati_Amer49Tulsa38HomeWin118Amer34.342.3
11-14-2015Vanderbilt_SEC21Kentucky17HomeWin47SEC35.242.2
11-14-2015Wake Forest_ACC7Notre Dame28RoadLoss-21-18Ind59.441.4
11-14-2015Northwestern_B1021Purdue14HomeWin77B1034.341.3
11-14-2015Colorado St_MWC49UNLV35HomeWin1411MWC30.341.3
11-14-2015South Carolina_SEC14Florida24HomeLoss-10-13SEC54.341.3
11-13-2015Southern Cal_P1227Colorado24RoadWin37P1234.141.1
11-14-2015Stanford_P1236Oregon38HomeLoss-2-7P124841
11-14-2015North Carolina St_ACC17Florida St34RoadLoss-17-14ACC54.840.8
11-10-2015Central Michigan_MAC23Toledo28HomeLoss-5-8MAC48.740.7
11-14-2015Virginia_ACC31Louisville38RoadLoss-7-7ACC47.540.5
11-12-2015Georgia Tech_ACC21Virginia Tech23HomeLoss-2-7ACC46.739.7
11-14-2015Purdue_B1014Northwestern21RoadLoss-7-7B1046.139.1
11-14-2015UCLA_P1227Washington St31HomeLoss-4-7P1245.438.4
11-14-2015Maryland_B107Michigan St24RoadLoss-17-14B1051.737.7
11-14-2015Auburn_SEC13Georgia20HomeLoss-7-10SEC47.637.6
11-14-2015Mississippi St_SEC6Alabama31HomeLoss-25-26SEC62.636.6
11-14-2015Tennessee_SEC24North Texas0HomeWin2421CUSA15.436.4
11-14-2015Washington_P1217Arizona St27RoadLoss-10-7P1243.136.1
11-14-2015Texas_B1220West Virginia38RoadLoss-18-15B1250.835.8
11-14-2015Utah_P1230Arizona37RoadLoss-7-7P124235
11-11-2015Western Michigan_MAC27Bowling Green41HomeLoss-14-17MAC51.834.8
11-14-2015Kansas St_B1244Texas Tech59RoadLoss-15-12B1246.534.5
11-14-2015Utah St_MWC28Air Force35RoadLoss-7-7MWC41.234.2
11-14-2015Tulsa_Amer38Cincinnati49RoadLoss-11-8Amer4234
11-14-2015Illinois_B103Ohio State28HomeLoss-25-26B1059.533.5
11-14-2015Brigham Young_Ind16Missouri20NeutLoss-4-7SEC40.133.1
11-14-2015Middle Tennessee St_CUSA24Florida Atlantic17RoadWin710CUSA22.932.9
11-14-2015North Texas_CUSA0Tennessee24RoadLoss-24-21SEC53.932.9
11-14-2015Nevada_MWC37San José St34HomeWin30MWC32.432.4
11-14-2015Tulane_Amer34Army31RoadWin37Ind25.432.4
11-12-2015South Alabama_Sun32Louisiana-Lafayette25HomeWin77Sun25.132.1
11-14-2015Akron_MAC37Miami OH28RoadWin912MAC2032
11-14-2015TCU_B1223Kansas17HomeWin67B1224.831.8
11-14-2015Kentucky_SEC17Vanderbilt21RoadLoss-4-7SEC38.131.1
11-14-2015LSU_SEC14Arkansas31HomeLoss-17-20SEC50.830.8
11-11-2015Buffalo_MAC30Northern Illinois41HomeLoss-11-14MAC43.729.7
11-14-2015Massachusetts_MAC28Eastern Michigan17RoadWin1114MAC15.629.6
11-14-2015Duke_ACC13Pittsburgh31HomeLoss-18-21ACC50.429.4
11-14-2015San José St_MWC34Nevada37RoadLoss-30MWC28.528.5
11-14-2015Miami FL_ACC21North Carolina59RoadLoss-38-29.5ACC57.528
11-14-2015Temple_Amer23South Florida44RoadLoss-21-18Amer44.326.3
11-14-2015Rutgers_B1014Nebraska31HomeLoss-17-20B1045.525.5
11-14-2015Florida Atlantic_CUSA17Middle Tennessee St24HomeLoss-7-10CUSA34.524.5
11-14-2015Oregon St_P1224California54RoadLoss-30-25.5P1249.924.4
11-14-2015SMU_Amer14Navy55RoadLoss-41-31Amer54.923.9
11-14-2015Old Dominion_CUSA31UTEP21HomeWin107CUSA15.122.1
11-14-2015Texas-San Antonio_CUSA30UNC-Charlotte27RoadWin37CUSA1522
11-14-2015UNLV_MWC35Colorado St49RoadLoss-14-11MWC30.919.9
11-14-2015Miami OH_MAC28Akron37HomeLoss-9-12MAC31.619.6
11-14-2015Army_Ind31Tulane34HomeLoss-3-7Amer26.519.5
11-12-2015Louisiana-Lafayette_Sun25South Alabama32RoadLoss-7-7Sun24.317.3
11-14-2015Boise St_MWC24New Mexico31HomeLoss-7-10MWC27.217.2
11-14-2015Idaho_Sun20Appalachian St47HomeLoss-27-27Sun42.515.5
11-14-2015UNC-Charlotte_CUSA27Texas-San Antonio30HomeLoss-3-7CUSA22.415.4
11-14-2015Troy_Sun10Georgia Southern45HomeLoss-35-31Sun4514
11-14-2015Wyoming_MWC3San Diego St38RoadLoss-35-28MWC41.713.7
11-14-2015Eastern Michigan_MAC17Massachusetts28HomeLoss-11-14MAC25.911.9
11-14-2015UTEP_CUSA21Old Dominion31RoadLoss-10-7CUSA17.610.6
11-10-2015Kent St_MAC0Ohio U.27RoadLoss-27-24MAC33.49.4
11-14-2015Louisiana-Monroe_Sun21Arkansas St59HomeLoss-38-32.5Sun374.5
11-14-2015Florida Int'l_CUSA0Marshall52RoadLoss-52-36.5CUSA39.42.9
11-14-2015Texas St-San Marcos_Sun19Georgia St41HomeLoss-22-24.5Sun22.6-1.9
11-14-2015Rice_CUSA10Southern Miss65HomeLoss-55-41CUSA37.9-3.1
11-14-2015Hawai`i_MWC14Fresno St42HomeLoss-28-27.5MWC22.2-5.3

As always, please leave your questions and comments below.

  1. Given Baylor’s quarterback situation, this game is probably not exactly impressive as it looks, but it is still a very quality win. []