≡ Menu

In week 1, the Titans blew out the Bucs, in Tampa Bay, by the score of 42-14. Right now, the Bucs have an SRS rating of -5.9, but the Titans are even worse, at -7.7. Given the location of the game, we would “expect” Tampa Bay to have defeated Tennessee by about five points. So with the Titans winning by 28 points, that means Tennessee exceeded expectations by about 33 points. That’s the largest outlier of any game this year. Note that the Titans exceeded expectations by 36.5 points in week 1 of 2014, making it the second least-conforming game of last season.

Let’s start with the SRS ratings, presented below. These are through week 12, but also include the Packers/Lions game from Thursday night.

RkTeamGMOVSOSSRS
1New England Patriots1112.0-0.711.3
2Cincinnati Bengals119.21.510.7
3Arizona Cardinals1111.7-1.310.4
4Kansas City Chiefs116.63.19.7
5Carolina Panthers1111.3-3.38.0
6Denver Broncos114.42.56.9
7Green Bay Packers124.31.45.6
8Pittsburgh Steelers113.02.25.2
9Seattle Seahawks113.81.35.2
10Minnesota Vikings113.60.13.8
11Buffalo Bills110.81.42.3
12New York Jets113.5-2.11.3
13Chicago Bears11-2.73.50.7
14Oakland Raiders11-1.20.5-0.7
15Houston Texans11-0.5-0.7-1.2
16Baltimore Ravens11-1.3-0.1-1.4
17Indianapolis Colts11-1.3-0.2-1.4
18St. Louis Rams11-3.72.0-1.7
19New York Giants111.5-3.3-1.8
20Atlanta Falcons112.1-4.2-2.1
21Detroit Lions12-5.93.4-2.5
22Washington Redskins11-2.6-1.1-3.8
23San Diego Chargers11-6.01.7-4.3
24Philadelphia Eagles11-2.5-3.1-5.6
25Miami Dolphins11-4.5-1.1-5.7
26Tampa Bay Buccaneers11-2.5-3.3-5.9
27Jacksonville Jaguars11-5.7-0.4-6.2
28Dallas Cowboys11-5.5-1.1-6.6
29Cleveland Browns11-8.51.6-7.0
30San Francisco 49ers11-11.13.5-7.6
31Tennessee Titans11-5.2-2.6-7.7
32New Orleans Saints11-6.8-1.6-8.4

The second-least conforming game so far this year also involved the Bucs. Here’s how to read the table below. In week 11, Tampa Bay traveled to Philadelphia, and won 45-17. The BUcs have an SRS rating of -5.9, while the Eagles have a rating of -5.6. Therefore, we would expect the Bucs to lose by 3.3 points (the expected MOV), but in reality, Tampa Bay won by 28 points, exceeding expectations by 31.3 points.

The table below is fully searchable and sortable, and displays every game from 2015.

WeekWinner/tieH/RLoser/tiePFPATm_SRSOpp_SRSExp MOVAct MOVDiff
1Tennessee Titans@Tampa Bay Buccaneers4214-7.7-5.9-4.92832.9
11Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Philadelphia Eagles4517-5.9-5.6-3.32831.3
6Miami Dolphins@Tennessee Titans3810-5.7-7.7-0.92828.9
1San Francisco 49ersMinnesota Vikings203-7.63.8-8.31725.3
10Washington RedskinsNew Orleans Saints4714-3.8-8.47.73325.3
4Atlanta FalconsHouston Texans4821-2.1-1.22.02725.0
12Detroit LionsPhiladelphia Eagles4514-2.5-5.66.23124.8
10Chicago Bears@St. Louis Rams37130.7-1.7-0.52424.5
8Kansas City ChiefsNDetroit Lions45109.7-2.512.23522.8
3Buffalo Bills@Miami Dolphins41142.3-5.75.02722.0
4New York Giants@Buffalo Bills2410-1.82.3-7.11421.1
6Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants277-5.6-1.8-0.82020.8
7Miami DolphinsHouston Texans4426-5.7-1.2-1.51819.5
3Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers47710.4-7.621.04019.0
11Kansas City Chiefs@San Diego Chargers3339.7-4.311.13018.9
10Houston Texans@Cincinnati Bengals106-1.210.7-14.8418.8
3Seattle SeahawksChicago Bears2605.20.77.42618.6
2Arizona Cardinals@Chicago Bears482310.40.76.72518.3
11Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings30135.63.8-1.21718.2
4St. Louis Rams@Arizona Cardinals2422-1.710.4-15.2217.2
3Philadelphia Eagles@New York Jets2417-5.61.3-10.0717.0
5Philadelphia EaglesNew Orleans Saints3917-5.6-8.45.82216.2
10Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos29139.76.9-0.21616.2
7New Orleans Saints@Indianapolis Colts2721-8.4-1.4-10.0616.0
5Arizona Cardinals@Detroit Lions421710.4-2.59.92515.1
8Denver BroncosGreen Bay Packers29106.95.64.31914.7
10Minnesota Vikings@Oakland Raiders30143.8-0.71.41614.6
3New Orleans Saints@Carolina Panthers2227-8.48.0-19.4-514.4
6Pittsburgh SteelersArizona Cardinals25135.210.4-2.21214.2
2Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles2010-6.6-5.6-4.01014.0
11Dallas Cowboys@Miami Dolphins2414-6.6-5.7-3.91013.9
3New England PatriotsJacksonville Jaguars511711.3-6.220.53413.5
6New Orleans SaintsAtlanta Falcons3121-8.4-2.1-3.31013.3
2New York Jets@Indianapolis Colts2071.3-1.4-0.31313.3
11Carolina PanthersWashington Redskins44168.0-3.814.82813.2
10Detroit Lions@Green Bay Packers1816-2.55.6-11.1213.1
2Washington RedskinsSt. Louis Rams2410-3.8-1.71.01413.0
2San Diego Chargers@Cincinnati Bengals1924-4.310.7-18.0-513.0
5Chicago Bears@Kansas City Chiefs18170.79.7-12.0113.0
8Oakland RaidersNew York Jets3420-0.71.31.01413.0
9New York Giants@Tampa Bay Buccaneers3218-1.8-5.91.11412.9
2Denver Broncos@Kansas City Chiefs31246.99.7-5.8712.8
4Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh Steelers2320-1.45.2-9.6312.6
8St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ers276-1.7-7.68.82112.2
1Miami Dolphins@Washington Redskins1710-5.7-3.8-4.9711.9
12Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers17130.75.6-7.9411.9
1Cincinnati Bengals@Oakland Raiders331310.7-0.78.42011.6
5Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens3330-7.0-1.4-8.6311.6
7Jacksonville JaguarsNBuffalo Bills3431-6.22.3-8.4311.4
3Green Bay PackersKansas City Chiefs38285.69.7-1.11011.1
4Cincinnati BengalsKansas City Chiefs362110.79.73.91511.1
5Indianapolis Colts@Houston Texans2720-1.4-1.2-3.3710.3
2Cleveland BrownsTennessee Titans2814-7.0-7.73.81410.2
1New Orleans Saints@Arizona Cardinals1931-8.410.4-21.9-129.9
10Jacksonville Jaguars@Baltimore Ravens2220-6.2-1.4-7.829.8
8Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta Falcons2320-5.9-2.1-6.839.8
7St. Louis RamsCleveland Browns246-1.7-7.08.2189.8
1New York JetsCleveland Browns31101.3-7.011.3219.7
3Atlanta Falcons@Dallas Cowboys3928-2.1-6.61.5119.5
8Indianapolis Colts@Carolina Panthers2629-1.48.0-12.4-39.4
2Pittsburgh SteelersSan Francisco 49ers43185.2-7.615.8259.2
10New York GiantsNew England Patriots2627-1.811.3-10.1-19.1
5New England Patriots@Dallas Cowboys30611.3-6.614.9249.1
6Houston Texans@Jacksonville Jaguars3120-1.2-6.22.0119.0
12San Francisco 49ersArizona Cardinals1319-7.610.4-15.0-69.0
8New England PatriotsMiami Dolphins36711.3-5.720.0299.0
6Minnesota VikingsKansas City Chiefs16103.89.7-3.069.0
12Cincinnati BengalsSt. Louis Rams31710.7-1.715.4248.6
9Indianapolis ColtsDenver Broncos2724-1.46.9-5.338.3
9Tennessee Titans@New Orleans Saints3428-7.7-8.4-2.368.3
6San Francisco 49ersBaltimore Ravens2520-7.6-1.4-3.258.2
9Philadelphia Eagles@Dallas Cowboys3327-5.6-6.6-2.068.0
12New York JetsMiami Dolphins38201.3-5.710.0188.0
6Cleveland BrownsDenver Broncos2326-7.06.9-10.9-37.9
8Dallas CowboysSeattle Seahawks1213-6.65.2-8.8-17.8
12Houston TexansNew Orleans Saints246-1.2-8.410.3187.7
4Detroit Lions@Seattle Seahawks1013-2.55.2-10.7-37.7
6Cincinnati Bengals@Buffalo Bills342110.72.35.4137.6
2Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New Orleans Saints2619-5.9-8.4-0.577.5
12Denver BroncosNew England Patriots30246.911.3-1.467.4
12Carolina Panthers@Dallas Cowboys33148.0-6.611.6197.4
2Atlanta Falcons@New York Giants2420-2.1-1.8-3.347.3
7Oakland Raiders@San Diego Chargers3729-0.7-4.30.787.3
7Seattle Seahawks@San Francisco 49ers2035.2-7.69.7177.3
12San Diego Chargers@Jacksonville Jaguars3125-4.3-6.2-1.267.2
12Minnesota Vikings@Atlanta Falcons20103.8-2.12.9107.1
10Buffalo Bills@New York Jets22172.31.3-2.057.0
1St. Louis RamsSeattle Seahawks3431-1.75.2-3.936.9
7Baltimore Ravens@Arizona Cardinals1826-1.410.4-14.8-86.8
8New Orleans SaintsNew York Giants5249-8.4-1.8-3.636.6
2Green Bay PackersSeattle Seahawks27175.65.23.5106.5
11Houston TexansNew York Jets2417-1.21.30.576.5
1Buffalo BillsIndianapolis Colts27142.3-1.46.7136.3
1Green Bay Packers@Chicago Bears31235.60.71.986.1
12Seattle SeahawksPittsburgh Steelers39305.25.22.996.1
3New York GiantsWashington Redskins3221-1.8-3.85.0116.0
7New York Jets@New England Patriots23301.311.3-13.0-76.0
5Tennessee TitansBuffalo Bills1314-7.72.3-7.0-16.0
4New York JetsNMiami Dolphins27141.3-5.77.0136.0
6San Diego Chargers@Green Bay Packers2027-4.35.6-13.0-76.0
6New York JetsWashington Redskins34201.3-3.88.1145.9
9Oakland Raiders@Pittsburgh Steelers3538-0.75.2-8.9-35.9
3Minnesota VikingsSan Diego Chargers31143.8-4.311.1175.9
10Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland Browns3095.2-7.015.2215.8
5San Francisco 49ers@New York Giants2730-7.6-1.8-8.8-35.8
7Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions28193.8-2.53.395.7
7Philadelphia Eagles@Carolina Panthers1627-5.68.0-16.6-115.6
3Denver Broncos@Detroit Lions24126.9-2.56.4125.6
12Indianapolis ColtsTampa Bay Buccaneers2512-1.4-5.97.5135.5
5Seattle Seahawks@Cincinnati Bengals24275.210.7-8.5-35.5
9St. Louis Rams@Minnesota Vikings1821-1.73.8-8.5-35.5
9Jacksonville Jaguars@New York Jets2328-6.21.3-10.5-55.5
11Indianapolis Colts@Atlanta Falcons2421-1.4-2.1-2.335.3
1Baltimore Ravens@Denver Broncos1319-1.46.9-11.3-65.3
2Houston Texans@Carolina Panthers1724-1.28.0-12.2-75.2
3Baltimore RavensCincinnati Bengals2428-1.410.7-9.1-45.1
11Buffalo Bills@New England Patriots13202.311.3-12.1-75.1
9Buffalo BillsMiami Dolphins33172.3-5.711.0165.0
12Washington RedskinsNew York Giants2014-3.8-1.81.065.0
4New Orleans SaintsDallas Cowboys2620-8.4-6.61.264.8
10Arizona Cardinals@Seattle Seahawks393210.45.22.374.7
4Jacksonville Jaguars@Indianapolis Colts1316-6.2-1.4-7.7-34.7
1Philadelphia Eagles@Atlanta Falcons2426-5.6-2.1-6.5-24.5
8Houston TexansTennessee Titans206-1.2-7.79.6144.4
10Carolina Panthers@Tennessee Titans27108.0-7.712.7174.3
6Carolina Panthers@Seattle Seahawks27238.05.2-0.244.2
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Washington Redskins3031-5.9-3.8-5.1-14.1
10Miami Dolphins@Philadelphia Eagles2019-5.7-5.6-3.014.0
1San Diego ChargersDetroit Lions3328-4.3-2.51.153.9
11Detroit LionsOakland Raiders1813-2.5-0.71.253.8
4Green Bay Packers@San Francisco 49ers1735.6-7.610.2143.8
5Tampa Bay BuccaneersJacksonville Jaguars3831-5.9-6.23.373.7
3Oakland Raiders@Cleveland Browns2720-0.7-7.03.373.7
5Green Bay PackersSt. Louis Rams24105.6-1.710.3143.7
8Cincinnati Bengals@Pittsburgh Steelers161010.75.22.463.6
9San Francisco 49ersAtlanta Falcons1716-7.6-2.1-2.413.4
12Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland Browns3327-1.4-7.02.663.4
6Detroit LionsChicago Bears3734-2.50.7-0.233.2
4Minnesota Vikings@Denver Broncos20233.86.9-6.1-33.1
4Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers37238.0-5.910.9143.1
8San Diego Chargers@Baltimore Ravens2629-4.3-1.4-6.0-33.0
8Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears23203.80.70.132.9
1Dallas CowboysNew York Giants2726-6.6-1.8-1.812.8
6Indianapolis ColtsNew England Patriots2734-1.411.3-9.8-72.8
9Carolina PanthersGreen Bay Packers37298.05.65.482.6
4Cleveland Browns@San Diego Chargers2730-7.0-4.3-5.6-32.6
5San Diego ChargersPittsburgh Steelers2024-4.35.2-6.6-42.6
7Kansas City ChiefsPittsburgh Steelers23139.75.27.5102.5
12Buffalo Bills@Kansas City Chiefs22302.39.7-10.5-82.5
4Oakland Raiders@Chicago Bears2022-0.70.7-4.4-22.4
3Houston TexansTampa Bay Buccaneers199-1.2-5.97.7102.3
1Pittsburgh Steelers@New England Patriots21285.211.3-9.1-72.1
3Pittsburgh Steelers@St. Louis Rams1265.2-1.74.062.0
2New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills403211.32.36.181.9
4Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Redskins2023-5.6-3.8-4.9-31.9
5Denver Broncos@Oakland Raiders16106.9-0.74.661.4
11Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee Titans1913-6.2-7.74.661.4
5Atlanta FalconsWashington Redskins2519-2.1-3.84.761.3
3Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts3335-7.7-1.4-3.3-21.3
11Chicago BearsDenver Broncos15170.76.9-3.2-21.2
13Detroit LionsGreen Bay Packers2327-2.55.6-5.1-41.1
9Washington Redskins@New England Patriots1027-3.811.3-18.1-171.1
12Tennessee TitansOakland Raiders2124-7.7-0.7-4.1-31.1
9Chicago Bears@San Diego Chargers22190.7-4.32.130.9
1Houston TexansKansas City Chiefs2027-1.29.7-7.9-70.9
7Dallas Cowboys@New York Giants2027-6.6-1.8-7.8-70.8
2Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions26163.8-2.59.3100.7
2Jacksonville JaguarsMiami Dolphins2320-6.2-5.72.530.5
8Cleveland BrownsArizona Cardinals2034-7.010.4-14.4-140.4
7Atlanta Falcons@Tennessee Titans107-2.1-7.72.630.4
11St. Louis Rams@Baltimore Ravens1316-1.7-1.4-3.4-30.4
9Cincinnati BengalsCleveland Browns311010.7-7.020.7210.3
10Tampa Bay BuccaneersDallas Cowboys106-5.9-6.63.740.3
2Oakland RaidersBaltimore Ravens3733-0.7-1.43.740.3
11Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ers29135.2-7.615.7160.3
11Arizona CardinalsCincinnati Bengals343110.410.72.730.3
1Jacksonville JaguarsCarolina Panthers920-6.28.0-11.2-110.2
1Carolina Panthers@Jacksonville Jaguars2098.0-6.211.211-0.2
11Cincinnati Bengals@Arizona Cardinals313410.710.4-2.7-3-0.3
11San Francisco 49ers@Seattle Seahawks1329-7.65.2-15.7-16-0.3
2Baltimore Ravens@Oakland Raiders3337-1.4-0.7-3.7-4-0.3
10Dallas Cowboys@Tampa Bay Buccaneers610-6.6-5.9-3.7-4-0.3
9Cleveland Browns@Cincinnati Bengals1031-7.010.7-20.7-21-0.3
11Baltimore RavensSt. Louis Rams1613-1.4-1.73.43-0.4
7Tennessee TitansAtlanta Falcons710-7.7-2.1-2.6-3-0.4
8Arizona Cardinals@Cleveland Browns342010.4-7.014.414-0.4
2Miami Dolphins@Jacksonville Jaguars2023-5.7-6.2-2.5-3-0.5
2Detroit Lions@Minnesota Vikings1626-2.53.8-9.3-10-0.7
7New York GiantsDallas Cowboys2720-1.8-6.67.87-0.8
1Kansas City Chiefs@Houston Texans27209.7-1.27.97-0.9
9San Diego ChargersChicago Bears1922-4.30.7-2.1-3-0.9
12Oakland Raiders@Tennessee Titans2421-0.7-7.74.13-1.1
9New England PatriotsWashington Redskins271011.3-3.818.117-1.1
13Green Bay Packers@Detroit Lions27235.6-2.55.14-1.1
11Denver Broncos@Chicago Bears17156.90.73.22-1.2
3Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans3533-1.4-7.73.32-1.3
5Washington Redskins@Atlanta Falcons1925-3.8-2.1-4.7-6-1.3
11Tennessee Titans@Jacksonville Jaguars1319-7.7-6.2-4.6-6-1.4
5Oakland RaidersDenver Broncos1016-0.76.9-4.6-6-1.4
4Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia Eagles2320-3.8-5.64.93-1.9
2Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots32402.311.3-6.1-8-1.9
3St. Louis RamsPittsburgh Steelers612-1.75.2-4.0-6-2.0
1New England PatriotsPittsburgh Steelers282111.35.29.17-2.1
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Houston Texans919-5.9-1.2-7.7-10-2.3
4Chicago BearsOakland Raiders22200.7-0.74.42-2.4
12Kansas City ChiefsBuffalo Bills30229.72.310.58-2.5
7Pittsburgh Steelers@Kansas City Chiefs13235.29.7-7.5-10-2.5
5Pittsburgh Steelers@San Diego Chargers24205.2-4.36.64-2.6
4San Diego ChargersCleveland Browns3027-4.3-7.05.63-2.6
9Green Bay Packers@Carolina Panthers29375.68.0-5.4-8-2.6
6New England Patriots@Indianapolis Colts342711.3-1.49.87-2.8
1New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys2627-1.8-6.61.8-1-2.8
8Chicago BearsMinnesota Vikings20230.73.8-0.1-3-2.9
8Baltimore RavensSan Diego Chargers2926-1.4-4.36.03-3.0
4Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers2337-5.98.0-10.9-14-3.1
4Denver BroncosMinnesota Vikings23206.93.86.13-3.1
6Chicago Bears@Detroit Lions34370.7-2.50.2-3-3.2
12Cleveland BrownsBaltimore Ravens2733-7.0-1.4-2.6-6-3.4
9Atlanta Falcons@San Francisco 49ers1617-2.1-7.62.4-1-3.4
8Pittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Bengals10165.210.7-2.4-6-3.6
5St. Louis Rams@Green Bay Packers1024-1.75.6-10.3-14-3.7
3Cleveland BrownsOakland Raiders2027-7.0-0.7-3.3-7-3.7
5Jacksonville Jaguars@Tampa Bay Buccaneers3138-6.2-5.9-3.3-7-3.7
4San Francisco 49ersGreen Bay Packers317-7.65.6-10.2-14-3.8
11Oakland Raiders@Detroit Lions1318-0.7-2.5-1.2-5-3.8
1Detroit Lions@San Diego Chargers2833-2.5-4.3-1.1-5-3.9
10Philadelphia EaglesMiami Dolphins1920-5.6-5.73.0-1-4.0
7Washington RedskinsTampa Bay Buccaneers3130-3.8-5.95.11-4.1
6Seattle SeahawksCarolina Panthers23275.28.00.2-4-4.2
10Tennessee TitansCarolina Panthers1027-7.78.0-12.7-17-4.3
8Tennessee Titans@Houston Texans620-7.7-1.2-9.6-14-4.4
1Atlanta FalconsPhiladelphia Eagles2624-2.1-5.66.52-4.5
4Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars1613-1.4-6.27.73-4.7
10Seattle SeahawksArizona Cardinals32395.210.4-2.3-7-4.7
4Dallas Cowboys@New Orleans Saints2026-6.6-8.4-1.2-6-4.8
12New York Giants@Washington Redskins1420-1.8-3.8-1.0-6-5.0
9Miami Dolphins@Buffalo Bills1733-5.72.3-11.0-16-5.0
11New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills201311.32.312.17-5.1
3Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens282410.7-1.49.14-5.1
2Carolina PanthersHouston Texans24178.0-1.212.27-5.2
1Denver BroncosBaltimore Ravens19136.9-1.411.36-5.3
11Atlanta FalconsIndianapolis Colts2124-2.1-1.42.3-3-5.3
9New York JetsJacksonville Jaguars28231.3-6.210.55-5.5
9Minnesota VikingsSt. Louis Rams21183.8-1.78.53-5.5
5Cincinnati BengalsSeattle Seahawks272410.75.28.53-5.5
12Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Indianapolis Colts1225-5.9-1.4-7.5-13-5.5
3Detroit LionsDenver Broncos1224-2.56.9-6.4-12-5.6
7Carolina PanthersPhiladelphia Eagles27168.0-5.616.611-5.6
7Detroit LionsMinnesota Vikings1928-2.53.8-3.3-9-5.7
5New York GiantsSan Francisco 49ers3027-1.8-7.68.83-5.8
10Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers930-7.05.2-15.2-21-5.8
3San Diego Chargers@Minnesota Vikings1431-4.33.8-11.1-17-5.9
9Pittsburgh SteelersOakland Raiders38355.2-0.78.93-5.9
6Washington Redskins@New York Jets2034-3.81.3-8.1-14-5.9
6Green Bay PackersSan Diego Chargers27205.6-4.313.07-6.0
4Miami DolphinsNNew York Jets1427-5.71.3-7.0-13-6.0
5Buffalo Bills@Tennessee Titans14132.3-7.77.01-6.0
7New England PatriotsNew York Jets302311.31.313.07-6.0
3Washington Redskins@New York Giants2132-3.8-1.8-5.0-11-6.0
12Pittsburgh Steelers@Seattle Seahawks30395.25.2-2.9-9-6.1
1Chicago BearsGreen Bay Packers23310.75.6-1.9-8-6.1
1Indianapolis Colts@Buffalo Bills1427-1.42.3-6.7-13-6.3
11New York Jets@Houston Texans17241.3-1.2-0.5-7-6.5
2Seattle Seahawks@Green Bay Packers17275.25.6-3.5-10-6.5
8New York Giants@New Orleans Saints4952-1.8-8.43.6-3-6.6
7Arizona CardinalsBaltimore Ravens261810.4-1.414.88-6.8
1Seattle Seahawks@St. Louis Rams31345.2-1.73.9-3-6.9
10New York JetsBuffalo Bills17221.32.32.0-5-7.0
12Atlanta FalconsMinnesota Vikings1020-2.13.8-2.9-10-7.1
12Jacksonville JaguarsSan Diego Chargers2531-6.2-4.31.2-6-7.2
7San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks320-7.65.2-9.7-17-7.3
7San Diego ChargersOakland Raiders2937-4.3-0.7-0.7-8-7.3
2New York GiantsAtlanta Falcons2024-1.8-2.13.3-4-7.3
12Dallas CowboysCarolina Panthers1433-6.68.0-11.6-19-7.4
12New England Patriots@Denver Broncos243011.36.91.4-6-7.4
2New Orleans SaintsTampa Bay Buccaneers1926-8.4-5.90.5-7-7.5
6Buffalo BillsCincinnati Bengals21342.310.7-5.4-13-7.6
4Seattle SeahawksDetroit Lions13105.2-2.510.73-7.7
12New Orleans Saints@Houston Texans624-8.4-1.2-10.3-18-7.7
8Seattle Seahawks@Dallas Cowboys13125.2-6.68.81-7.8
6Denver Broncos@Cleveland Browns26236.9-7.010.93-7.9
12Miami Dolphins@New York Jets2038-5.71.3-10.0-18-8.0
9Dallas CowboysPhiladelphia Eagles2733-6.6-5.62.0-6-8.0
6Baltimore Ravens@San Francisco 49ers2025-1.4-7.63.2-5-8.2
9New Orleans SaintsTennessee Titans2834-8.4-7.72.3-6-8.3
9Denver Broncos@Indianapolis Colts24276.9-1.45.3-3-8.3
12St. Louis Rams@Cincinnati Bengals731-1.710.7-15.4-24-8.6
6Kansas City Chiefs@Minnesota Vikings10169.73.83.0-6-9.0
8Miami Dolphins@New England Patriots736-5.711.3-20.0-29-9.0
12Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers191310.4-7.615.06-9.0
6Jacksonville JaguarsHouston Texans2031-6.2-1.2-2.0-11-9.0
5Dallas CowboysNew England Patriots630-6.611.3-14.9-24-9.1
10New England Patriots@New York Giants272611.3-1.810.11-9.1
2San Francisco 49ers@Pittsburgh Steelers1843-7.65.2-15.8-25-9.2
8Carolina PanthersIndianapolis Colts29268.0-1.412.43-9.4
3Dallas CowboysAtlanta Falcons2839-6.6-2.1-1.5-11-9.5
1Cleveland Browns@New York Jets1031-7.01.3-11.3-21-9.7
7Cleveland Browns@St. Louis Rams624-7.0-1.7-8.2-18-9.8
8Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers2023-2.1-5.96.8-3-9.8
10Baltimore RavensJacksonville Jaguars2022-1.4-6.27.8-2-9.8
1Arizona CardinalsNew Orleans Saints311910.4-8.421.912-9.9
2Tennessee Titans@Cleveland Browns1428-7.7-7.0-3.8-14-10.2
5Houston TexansIndianapolis Colts2027-1.2-1.43.3-7-10.3
4Kansas City Chiefs@Cincinnati Bengals21369.710.7-3.9-15-11.1
3Kansas City Chiefs@Green Bay Packers28389.75.61.1-10-11.1
7Buffalo BillsNJacksonville Jaguars31342.3-6.28.4-3-11.4
5Baltimore RavensCleveland Browns3033-1.4-7.08.6-3-11.6
1Oakland RaidersCincinnati Bengals1333-0.710.7-8.4-20-11.6
12Green Bay PackersChicago Bears13175.60.77.9-4-11.9
1Washington RedskinsMiami Dolphins1017-3.8-5.74.9-7-11.9
8San Francisco 49ers@St. Louis Rams627-7.6-1.7-8.8-21-12.2
4Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore Ravens20235.2-1.49.6-3-12.6
2Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos24319.76.95.8-7-12.8
9Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew York Giants1832-5.9-1.8-1.1-14-12.9
8New York Jets@Oakland Raiders20341.3-0.7-1.0-14-13.0
5Kansas City ChiefsChicago Bears17189.70.712.0-1-13.0
2Cincinnati BengalsSan Diego Chargers241910.7-4.318.05-13.0
2St. Louis Rams@Washington Redskins1024-1.7-3.8-1.0-14-13.0
10Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions16185.6-2.511.1-2-13.1
11Washington Redskins@Carolina Panthers1644-3.88.0-14.8-28-13.2
2Indianapolis ColtsNew York Jets720-1.41.30.3-13-13.3
6Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans Saints2131-2.1-8.43.3-10-13.3
3Jacksonville Jaguars@New England Patriots1751-6.211.3-20.5-34-13.5
11Miami DolphinsDallas Cowboys1424-5.7-6.63.9-10-13.9
2Philadelphia EaglesDallas Cowboys1020-5.6-6.64.0-10-14.0
6Arizona Cardinals@Pittsburgh Steelers132510.45.22.2-12-14.2
3Carolina PanthersNew Orleans Saints27228.0-8.419.45-14.4
10Oakland RaidersMinnesota Vikings1430-0.73.8-1.4-16-14.6
8Green Bay Packers@Denver Broncos10295.66.9-4.3-19-14.7
5Detroit LionsArizona Cardinals1742-2.510.4-9.9-25-15.1
7Indianapolis ColtsNew Orleans Saints2127-1.4-8.410.0-6-16.0
10Denver BroncosKansas City Chiefs13296.99.70.2-16-16.2
5New Orleans Saints@Philadelphia Eagles1739-8.4-5.6-5.8-22-16.2
3New York JetsPhiladelphia Eagles17241.3-5.610.0-7-17.0
4Arizona CardinalsSt. Louis Rams222410.4-1.715.2-2-17.2
11Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay Packers13303.85.61.2-17-18.2
2Chicago BearsArizona Cardinals23480.710.4-6.7-25-18.3
3Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks0260.75.2-7.4-26-18.6
10Cincinnati BengalsHouston Texans61010.7-1.214.8-4-18.8
11San Diego ChargersKansas City Chiefs333-4.39.7-11.1-30-18.9
3San Francisco 49ers@Arizona Cardinals747-7.610.4-21.0-40-19.0
7Houston Texans@Miami Dolphins2644-1.2-5.71.5-18-19.5
6New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles727-1.8-5.60.8-20-20.8
4Buffalo BillsNew York Giants10242.3-1.87.1-14-21.1
3Miami DolphinsBuffalo Bills1441-5.72.3-5.0-27-22.0
8Detroit LionsNKansas City Chiefs1045-2.59.7-12.2-35-22.8
10St. Louis RamsChicago Bears1337-1.70.70.5-24-24.5
12Philadelphia Eagles@Detroit Lions1445-5.6-2.5-6.2-31-24.8
4Houston Texans@Atlanta Falcons2148-1.2-2.1-2.0-27-25.0
10New Orleans Saints@Washington Redskins1447-8.4-3.8-7.7-33-25.3
1Minnesota Vikings@San Francisco 49ers3203.8-7.68.3-17-25.3
6Tennessee TitansMiami Dolphins1038-7.7-5.70.9-28-28.9
11Philadelphia EaglesTampa Bay Buccaneers1745-5.6-5.93.3-28-31.3
1Tampa Bay BuccaneersTennessee Titans1442-5.9-7.74.9-28-32.9

Finally, we can use these ratings to see which teams have been the most and least consistent this year, by measuring the standard deviation of each team’s “Diff” ratings. As it turns out, the Eagles have been the most inconsistent team this year, followed by the Bucs and Dolphins. That’s probably not too surprising to most observers, but it’s always nice to be able to quantify things:

RkTeamStDev
1Philadelphia Eagles17.1
2Tampa Bay Buccaneers15.7
3Miami Dolphins15.0
4Tennessee Titans14.7
5New Orleans Saints13.8
6Kansas City Chiefs13.5
7Houston Texans13.0
8Arizona Cardinals12.9
9Chicago Bears12.9
10Detroit Lions12.4
11San Francisco 49ers12.2
12St. Louis Rams12.2
13Minnesota Vikings12.0
14New York Giants11.5
15Buffalo Bills11.4
16Washington Redskins11.2
17Atlanta Falcons10.7
18Green Bay Packers10.2
19New York Jets10.1
20Cincinnati Bengals9.9
21Denver Broncos9.5
22Indianapolis Colts9.1
23Dallas Cowboys8.8
24San Diego Chargers8.6
25Seattle Seahawks8.5
26Oakland Raiders8.0
27Carolina Panthers8.0
28Jacksonville Jaguars7.8
29Pittsburgh Steelers7.6
30Baltimore Ravens7.6
31New England Patriots7.5
32Cleveland Browns7.5

The Patriots have been the second-most consistent team this year, which isn’t too surprising. But what might be surprising: the Browns have actually been more consistent!

  • Well the Eagles continued their inconsistent streak today.

    • Tom

      You’re not kidding…I told a buddy of mine that there is simply no way on God’s earth that the Patriots lose this game; the Eagles might cover the spread, but the Pats win. Well, they lost, and the amazing thing to me is this: sure, sometimes games get haywire, and teams score a lot of fluky non-offense scores…but 21 is a lot. Since the merger, there’s been only 47 games in which 21 or more non-offense points were scored (by one team) in a game. The record is 28, held by two teams: the 1984 Chiefs (against the Seahawks in a 0-45 blowout) and the 2012 Jags (in a loss to Tennessee 20-38). The Pats and Eagles were one score away from tying that record!

      But here’s what I find most interesting: these types of things just don’t happen to the Pats. Here’s some numbers:

      1. The most non-offense points the Pats have allowed in a single game since 2001 (the beginning of the Brady/Belichick era) is 9. It was in 2003 against the Broncos and they won that game, 30-26.

      2. The most non-offense points the Pats have allowed in a single season since 2001 is 28; the average in that time period is 26.8, and the record is held by the St. Louis Rams who allowed 84 non-offense points in 2002. So the Belichick Pats are one score away from having their worst “non-offense scores allowed” season since 2001.

      3. Which team has allowed the least amount of non-offense points since 2001? Yes, of course, it’s the Patriots. They’ve allowed 250 non-offense points, which amounts to 17.9 per season. This is 8.9 points above average and for you stat fans that’s 1.7 standard deviations above the norm.

      So for me, the surprise wasn’t that an inferior team beat a superior opponent, or that there were a lot of fluky scores in the game. The surprise was that it was the Patriots that allowed, were the victim of, those flukes. That kind of stuff just doesn’t happen to them, that’s just not how they normally lose games (well, OK, apart from games where a guy catches the ball on his helmet).

      Does this mean anything going forward? A lack of discipline? Doubt it…it was just a day that proved that even the most efficient, mistake-free team the league has probably ever seen can have a cursed day.

      • Richie

        “I told a buddy of mine that there is simply no way on God’s earth that
        the Patriots lose this game; the Eagles might cover the spread, but the
        Pats win.”

        That’s what I thought. And now I’m out of my survivor pool. 🙁

        • Tom

          Man that stinks, ’cause I’d take that pick every day…even without Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, Lewis, etc., the Pats are a better team and the 9.5 point spread was appropriate. Unless, of course, you figure into your calculations that the Eagles were going to score 21 fluky points, including a 100-yard pick-six, then yeah, the spread was way off (yes, I’m aggravated by this as well as I’m losing ground in my ESPN Pigskin Pick’em contest at work!)

          • Richie

            We were down to 7 people left with a $5,000+ pot!

      • Richie

        “Which team has allowed the least amount of non-offense points since 2001? Yes, of course, it’s the Patriots.”

        This looks like one of those “hidden” stats that help explain why the Patriots have been so good for so long. Non-offense scoring is usually overlooked by observers, and is difficult to track in your mind because of the few number of such plays. If you had asked me who had done the best in non-offensive points versus since 2001, I would have no idea who it was.

        Do you have a quick way to see how the Patriots rank in non-offensive points SCORED since 2001?

        • Tom

          Richie – just ran the numbers. New England comes in second, averaging 34.9 non-offense points per season (2.2 per game); again, this is from 2001-2014. I think it’s safe to say that this is one of those “hidden” stats as you say. Basically, the Patriots don’t allow those huge mistakes – pick-sixes, return TD’s, etc. – and somehow (maybe through some kind of Belichick mind-control thing) “cause” other teams to make those blunders. Or maybe this is just more explanatory – the Pats have been winning because they’ve been lucky enough to be on the right side of all those fluky plays? Kind of like that Brian Burke article earlier in the year about how the Pats just don’t fumble…are they just really good at it, or have they just been lucky, and this is just another reason why they win?

          Who’s averaged the most non-offense points per season since 2001? The Bears, at 41.8, which averages out to 2.6 per game! Call it the “Dave Toub (ST coach)/Devon Hester Effect”…

          Taking into account scoring and allowing, the effect seems minimal – the Bears and the Pats during this time period had a +1.1 advantage per game in non-offense points. But my guess is that this advantage has won them a fair share of games…maybe some time I’ll look at the numbers and see how many games the Pats have won when they’ve won the “non-offense points” battle.

          • Richie

            Thanks – this is good info. If you dig deeper some day, it might also be interesting to break down the points further into Special Teams and Defense, to see if the categories separate themselves out. Defensive scores to me seems a little more on the “luck” side of things, but Special Teams scoring could have more to do with talent, strategy and/or coaching.

            • Tom

              I agree…it’s just a “feeling”, but it seems like the presence of guys like John Harbaugh and Dave Toub make a difference…it might only be slight, but I think it’s there. Yeah, a forced fumble return TD is a separate thing all together…

      • Really good stuff, Tom. I also had a flashback to the 2014 Eagles, who seemed to score D/ST touchdowns in bunches.

        • Tom

          Thanks Chase. Yeah, the 2014 Eagles are ranked 5th since the merger with 77 points (4.8/game), tied with three Chiefs teams: 1992, 1999 and 2013. #1 is 1998 Seahawks with 91 points (5.7/game).

          OK, I’ll stop after this one: The GSOT SB-winning Rams come in at #4 with 79 points (4.9/game).