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Rams/Raiders was the Least-Conforming Game of 2014

50/50 chance these guys show up

50/50 chance these guys show up

They’re baaack! In November 2013, the St. Louis Rams blew out the visiting Indianapolis Colts in what was the least-conforming game of the 2013 season.

In November 2014, the Rams blew out the visiting Oakland Raiders in what was the least-conforming game of 2014 (although for my money, the runner-up game between the Titans and Chiefs was probably still the strangest result of the year). The Rams finished the season with a -0.8 SRS rating, eight points better than the 2014 Raiders SRS rating of -8.8. Given that the game was in St. Louis, we would have expected the Rams to win by around 11 points.

In reality, the Rams shut out the Raiders, 52-0. That gave St. Louis a single-game SRS score of 40.2, meaning the Rams were 40.2 points better than average that day.1 Since St. Louis won by 52 when the Rams were expected to win by 11, they exceeded expectations by a whopping 41 points.

That 41-point total — the amount by which St. Louis exceeded expectations — was the highest of any game in 2014. The table below lists all relevant information from every regular season game this year, with the “diff” column showing the difference between the expected and actual margins of victory. I have also included a link to the boxscore of each game embedded in the “Wk” cell. Note that the table, by default, lists only the top 10 games, but you can view more using either the dropdown box, the search bar, or the previous/next buttons at the bottom of the table.

TmOppWkH/RTmRatOpp RatExpPFPAW/LSRSDiff
St. Louis RamsOakland Raiders13Home-0.8-8.811520W40.241
Tennessee TitansKansas City Chiefs1Road-11.85.7-20.52610W24.736.5
Carolina PanthersNew Orleans Saints14Road-3-2.9-3.24110W31.134.2
Miami DolphinsSan Diego Chargers9Home2.41.93.5370W35.933.5
Carolina PanthersAtlanta Falcons17Road-3-3.7-2.4343W30.333.4
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers3Home-3.7-9.89.15614W29.232.9
Minnesota VikingsSt. Louis Rams1Road-1.7-0.8-3.9346W30.231.9
Dallas CowboysIndianapolis Colts16Home5.24.53.7427W36.531.3
Kansas City ChiefsNew England Patriots4Home5.710.9-2.24114W34.929.2
New Orleans SaintsGreen Bay Packers8Home-2.98.2-8.14423W26.229.1
Cleveland BrownsCincinnati Bengals10Road-3.90.8-7.6243W24.828.6
Cincinnati BengalsCleveland Browns15Road0.8-3.91.6300W29.128.4
Philadelphia EaglesDallas Cowboys13Road3.95.2-4.33310W31.227.3
New York GiantsWashington Redskins4Road-1.7-8.744514W25.327
Washington RedskinsJacksonville Jaguars2Home-8.7-10.34.54110W17.726.5
Green Bay PackersPhiladelphia Eagles11Home8.23.97.35320W33.925.7
Seattle SeahawksArizona Cardinals16Road9.524.6356W3424.4
Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh Steelers6Home-3.92.3-3.13110W20.324.1
Tampa Bay BuccaneersWashington Redskins11Road-9.8-8.7-4277W14.324
New York JetsMiami Dolphins17Road-5.12.4-10.43724W18.423.4
Green Bay PackersChicago Bears10Home8.2-6.8185514W31.223
Pittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Bengals14Road2.30.8-1.54221W24.822.5
St. Louis RamsDenver Broncos11Home-0.89.6-7.4227W21.622.4
Buffalo BillsNew York Jets12Home4.9-5.113383W26.922
New York GiantsTennessee Titans14Road-1.7-11.87.1367W20.221.9
Jacksonville JaguarsCleveland Browns7Home-10.3-3.9-3.4246W11.121.4
San Diego ChargersNew York Jets5Home1.9-5.110310W22.921
New Orleans SaintsCarolina Panthers9Road-2.9-3-2.82810W1820.8
Indianapolis ColtsCincinnati Bengals7Home4.50.86.7270W24.820.3
San Francisco 49ersDallas Cowboys1Road-15.2-9.22817W19.220.2
Chicago BearsAtlanta Falcons6Road-6.8-3.7-6.12713W13.320.1
Washington RedskinsDallas Cowboys8Road-8.75.2-16.92017W11.219.9
Atlanta FalconsNew Orleans Saints16Road-3.7-2.9-3.83014W16.119.8
Baltimore RavensTampa Bay Buccaneers6Road4.6-9.811.44817W24.219.6
Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore Ravens9Home2.34.60.64323W21.619.4
St. Louis RamsWashington Redskins14Road-0.8-8.74.9240W18.319.1
Green Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings5Home8.2-1.712.94210W27.319.1
Carolina PanthersDetroit Lions2Home-31.8-1.9247W15.818.9
Kansas City ChiefsMiami Dolphins3Road5.72.40.33415W24.418.7
New England PatriotsIndianapolis Colts11Road10.94.53.44220W29.518.6
Miami DolphinsNew England Patriots1Home2.410.9-5.53320W20.918.5
Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants6Home3.9-1.78.6270W22.318.4
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPittsburgh Steelers4Road-9.82.3-15.12724W8.318.1
San Diego ChargersBuffalo Bills3Road1.94.9-62210W19.918
New England PatriotsDenver Broncos9Home10.99.64.34321W28.617.7
Kansas City ChiefsSt. Louis Rams8Home5.7-0.89.5347W23.217.5
Baltimore RavensCarolina Panthers4Home4.6-310.73810W2217.3
Arizona CardinalsDallas Cowboys9Road25.2-6.22817W19.217.2
San Francisco 49ersSt. Louis Rams6Road-1-0.8-3.13117W16.217.1
Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots17Road4.910.9-9179W21.917
New York JetsNew England Patriots7Road-5.110.9-192527L11.917
Chicago BearsSan Francisco 49ers2Road-6.8-1-8.82820W1016.8
New England PatriotsMiami Dolphins15Home10.92.411.54113W27.416.5
Cincinnati BengalsNew Orleans Saints11Road0.8-2.90.72710W17.116.3
Pittsburgh SteelersIndianapolis Colts8Home2.34.50.85134W18.516.2
Dallas CowboysWashington Redskins17Road5.2-8.710.94417W21.316.1
Oakland RaidersSan Francisco 49ers14Home-8.8-1-4.92413W715.9
Oakland RaidersNew England Patriots3Road-8.810.9-22.7916L6.915.7
Seattle SeahawksGreen Bay Packers1Home9.58.24.33616W25.215.7
Baltimore RavensMiami Dolphins14Road4.62.4-0.72813W20.415.7
Pittsburgh SteelersCarolina Panthers3Road2.3-32.33719W1815.7
Oakland RaidersKansas City Chiefs12Home-8.85.7-11.52420W6.715.5
Detroit LionsGreen Bay Packers3Home1.88.2-3.4197W17.215.4
Oakland RaidersSeattle Seahawks9Road-8.89.5-21.32430L6.515.3
Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars3Road4.5-10.311.74417W19.715.3
New Orleans SaintsChicago Bears15Road-2.9-6.80.93115W12.215.1
Cincinnati BengalsDenver Broncos16Home0.89.6-5.83728W15.614.8
Baltimore RavensPittsburgh Steelers2Home4.62.35.4266W19.314.6
Detroit LionsNew York Giants1Home1.8-1.76.53514W16.314.5
Dallas CowboysSeattle Seahawks6Road5.29.5-7.33023W19.514.3
Philadelphia EaglesCarolina Panthers10Home3.9-3104521W1814
Cincinnati BengalsBaltimore Ravens1Road0.84.6-6.92316W14.613.9
New York GiantsSt. Louis Rams16Road-1.7-0.8-3.93727W12.213.9
San Diego ChargersSeattle Seahawks2Home1.99.5-4.73021W15.513.7
Minnesota VikingsCarolina Panthers13Home-1.7-34.33113W1213.7
Atlanta FalconsArizona Cardinals13Home-3.72-2.62918W1013.6
New York GiantsHouston Texans3Home-1.71.8-0.53017W11.813.5
Buffalo BillsMiami Dolphins2Home4.92.45.52910W18.413.5
Detroit LionsMinnesota Vikings6Road1.8-1.70.5173W15.313.5
New England PatriotsMinnesota Vikings2Road10.9-1.79.6307W24.313.4
Houston TexansCleveland Browns11Road1.8-3.92.6237W15.113.4
Buffalo BillsNew York Jets8Road4.9-5.174323W17.913
Cincinnati BengalsHouston Texans12Road0.81.8-42213W13.813
New England PatriotsDetroit Lions12Home10.91.812.1349W23.812.9
New England PatriotsCincinnati Bengals5Home10.90.813.14317W23.812.9
Indianapolis ColtsNew York Giants9Road4.5-1.73.24024W17.312.8
Miami DolphinsOakland Raiders4Lond2.4-8.811.23814W15.212.8
Dallas CowboysPhiladelphia Eagles15Road5.23.9-1.73827W17.912.7
Oakland RaidersBuffalo Bills16Home-8.84.9-10.72624W3.912.7
Chicago BearsNew York Jets3Road-6.8-5.1-4.72719W5.912.7
Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia Eagles3Road-8.73.9-15.63437L3.912.6
Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia Eagles16Home-8.73.9-9.62724W3.912.6
Miami DolphinsBuffalo Bills11Home2.44.90.5229W14.912.5
Denver BroncosKansas City Chiefs13Road9.65.70.92916W21.712.1
New York JetsNew England Patriots16Home-5.110.9-131617L6.912
New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills6Road10.94.933722W22.912
Houston TexansBaltimore Ravens16Home1.84.60.12513W13.611.9
Denver BroncosOakland Raiders17Home9.6-8.821.44714W21.211.6
Denver BroncosSan Francisco 49ers7Home9.6-113.54217W2111.5
New York JetsPittsburgh Steelers10Home-5.12.3-4.42013W6.311.4
Arizona CardinalsSt. Louis Rams10Home2-0.85.83114W13.211.2
New Orleans SaintsPittsburgh Steelers13Road-2.92.3-8.23532W8.311.2
Philadelphia EaglesHouston Texans9Road3.91.8-0.93121W14.810.9
Baltimore RavensAtlanta Falcons7Home4.6-3.711.3297W15.310.7
Cincinnati BengalsTennessee Titans3Home0.8-11.815.6337W11.210.4
Denver BroncosArizona Cardinals5Home9.6210.64120W2010.4
Arizona CardinalsNew York Giants2Road2-1.70.72514W12.310.3
Chicago BearsMinnesota Vikings11Home-6.8-1.7-2.12113W3.310.1
Jacksonville JaguarsBaltimore Ravens15Road-10.34.6-17.91220L-0.49.9
Dallas CowboysNew Orleans Saints4Home5.2-2.911.13817W15.19.9
St. Louis RamsSeattle Seahawks7Home-0.89.5-7.42826W8.59.4
New York JetsGreen Bay Packers2Road-5.18.2-16.32431L4.29.3
New Orleans SaintsMinnesota Vikings3Home-2.9-1.71.8209W6.39.2
Jacksonville JaguarsHouston Texans17Road-10.31.8-151723L-1.29
Green Bay PackersChicago Bears4Road8.2-6.8123817W17.29
Atlanta FalconsGreen Bay Packers14Road-3.78.2-14.93743L5.28.9
San Francisco 49ersKansas City Chiefs5Home-15.7-3.62217W7.78.6
Denver BroncosOakland Raiders10Road9.6-8.815.44117W18.28.6
Minnesota VikingsBuffalo Bills7Road-1.74.9-9.61617L6.98.6
Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ers13Road9.5-17.5193W188.5
Houston TexansOakland Raiders2Road1.8-8.87.63014W10.28.4
Pittsburgh SteelersKansas City Chiefs16Home2.35.7-0.42012W10.78.4
Buffalo BillsGreen Bay Packers15Home4.98.2-0.42113W13.28.4
San Francisco 49ersNew York Giants11Road-1-1.7-2.31610W7.38.3
Tennessee TitansPittsburgh Steelers11Home-11.82.3-11.12427L-3.78.1
Minnesota VikingsAtlanta Falcons4Home-1.7-3.754128W6.38
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers15Road-9.8-3-9.71719L-27.7
Houston TexansTennessee Titans13Home1.8-11.816.64521W9.27.4
Seattle SeahawksPhiladelphia Eagles14Road9.53.92.62414W16.97.4
New England PatriotsChicago Bears8Home10.9-6.820.75123W18.27.3
Denver BroncosSan Diego Chargers15Road9.61.94.72210W16.97.3
Miami DolphinsDenver Broncos12Road2.49.6-10.23639L9.67.2
Washington RedskinsMinnesota Vikings9Road-8.7-1.7-102629L-1.77
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers10Road-3.7-9.83.12717W3.26.9
Miami DolphinsChicago Bears7Road2.4-6.86.12714W9.26.9
San Francisco 49ersPhiladelphia Eagles4Home-13.9-1.92621W5.96.9
Carolina PanthersCincinnati Bengals6Road-30.8-6.83737T3.86.8
Washington RedskinsSan Francisco 49ers12Road-8.7-1-10.81317L-26.8
San Diego ChargersBaltimore Ravens13Road1.94.6-5.83433W8.66.8
Seattle SeahawksNew York Giants10Home9.5-1.714.23817W16.36.8
New Orleans SaintsDetroit Lions7Road-2.91.8-7.72324L3.86.7
Green Bay PackersCarolina Panthers7Home8.2-314.33817W156.7
Oakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers11Road-8.81.9-13.7613L-2.16.7
Jacksonville JaguarsNew York Giants13Home-10.3-1.7-5.62524W-3.76.6
Cincinnati BengalsAtlanta Falcons2Home0.8-3.77.42410W7.36.6
Philadelphia EaglesIndianapolis Colts2Road3.94.5-3.63027W10.56.6
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCincinnati Bengals13Home-9.80.8-7.51314L-3.26.5
Kansas City ChiefsBuffalo Bills10Road5.74.9-2.21713W11.96.2
Arizona CardinalsSt. Louis Rams15Road2-0.8-0.2126W8.26.2
Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh Steelers1Road-3.92.3-9.12730L2.36.1
Houston TexansBuffalo Bills4Home1.84.9-0.12317W7.96.1
St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ers9Road-0.8-1-2.91310W55.9
Indianapolis ColtsWashington Redskins13Home4.5-8.716.24927W10.35.8
Chicago BearsBuffalo Bills1Home-6.84.9-8.72023L-1.15.7
Atlanta FalconsCarolina Panthers11Road-3.7-3-3.61917W25.6
Carolina PanthersSeattle Seahawks8Home-39.5-9.6913L2.55.6
Pittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Bengals17Home2.30.84.52717W7.85.5
Tennessee TitansBaltimore Ravens10Road-11.84.6-19.5721L-6.45.5
Seattle SeahawksArizona Cardinals12Home9.5210.6193W155.4
Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants17Road3.9-1.72.63426W9.35.4
Detroit LionsChicago Bears13Home1.8-6.811.63417W7.25.4
Indianapolis ColtsHouston Texans6Road4.51.8-0.33328W9.85.3
Washington RedskinsSeattle Seahawks5Home-8.79.5-15.31727L-3.55.3
Kansas City ChiefsSan Diego Chargers17Home5.71.96.8197W10.95.2
Cleveland BrownsAtlanta Falcons12Road-3.9-3.7-3.22624W1.35.2
Minnesota VikingsMiami Dolphins16Road-1.72.4-7.13537L3.45.1
New York GiantsAtlanta Falcons5Home-1.7-3.753020W3.35
Houston TexansJacksonville Jaguars14Road1.8-10.392713W6.75
Kansas City ChiefsSeattle Seahawks11Home5.79.5-0.92420W10.54.9
Arizona CardinalsDetroit Lions11Home21.83.1146W6.84.9
Indianapolis ColtsTennessee Titans4Home4.5-11.819.34117W9.24.7
Oakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers6Home-8.81.9-7.72831L-4.14.7
Green Bay PackersNew England Patriots13Home8.210.90.32621W12.94.7
Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions15Road-1.71.8-6.51416L2.84.5
Atlanta FalconsDetroit Lions8Lond-3.71.8-5.52122L0.84.5
Miami DolphinsJacksonville Jaguars8Road2.4-10.39.62713W6.74.4
Cleveland BrownsIndianapolis Colts14Home-3.94.5-5.32425L0.54.3
Buffalo BillsCleveland Browns13Home4.9-3.911.72610W9.14.3
Indianapolis ColtsBaltimore Ravens5Home4.54.62.82013W8.64.2
Tennessee TitansWashington Redskins7Road-11.8-8.7-6.11719L-7.74.1
San Francisco 49ersNew Orleans Saints10Road-1-2.9-1.12724W3.14.1
Chicago BearsMinnesota Vikings17Road-6.8-1.7-8.1913L-2.74.1
Pittsburgh SteelersAtlanta Falcons15Road2.3-3.72.92720W6.34.1
Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals9Road-10.30.8-14.12333L-6.24.1
Dallas CowboysChicago Bears14Road5.2-6.894128W9.24
Tennessee TitansCleveland Browns5Home-11.8-3.9-52829L-7.94
Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay Packers12Home-1.78.2-6.92124L2.23.9
Tampa Bay BuccaneersSt. Louis Rams2Home-9.8-0.8-5.91719L-5.83.9
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCleveland Browns9Road-9.8-3.9-8.91722L-5.93.9
Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans Saints5Road-9.8-2.9-9.93137L-5.93.9
Cincinnati BengalsBaltimore Ravens8Home0.84.6-0.92724W4.63.9
San Diego ChargersJacksonville Jaguars4Home1.9-10.315.23314W5.73.8
Indianapolis ColtsTennessee Titans17Road4.5-11.813.32710W8.23.7
Washington RedskinsArizona Cardinals6Road-8.72-13.72030L-53.7
Arizona CardinalsKansas City Chiefs14Home25.7-0.71714W5.73.7
Cleveland BrownsBaltimore Ravens3Home-3.94.6-5.52123L-0.43.5
San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks15Road-19.5-13.5717L2.53.5
Pittsburgh SteelersHouston Texans7Home2.31.83.53023W5.83.5
Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee Titans16Home-10.3-11.84.52113W-6.83.5
Houston TexansDallas Cowboys5Road1.85.2-6.41720L5.23.4
Houston TexansTennessee Titans8Road1.8-11.810.63016W5.23.4
Denver BroncosSan Diego Chargers8Home9.61.910.73521W12.93.3
Arizona CardinalsOakland Raiders7Road2-8.87.82413W5.23.2
San Diego ChargersSan Francisco 49ers16Road1.9-1-0.23835W53.2
Detroit LionsNew York Jets4Road1.8-5.13.92417W4.93.1
Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers3Home2-15.92314W53.1
Seattle SeahawksDenver Broncos3Home9.59.62.92620W12.63.1
New England PatriotsSan Diego Chargers14Road10.91.962314W13.93
Buffalo BillsDetroit Lions5Road4.91.801714W7.83
San Francisco 49ersArizona Cardinals17Home-120.12017W22.9
Arizona CardinalsPhiladelphia Eagles8Home23.91.12420W4.92.9
St. Louis RamsSan Diego Chargers12Road-0.81.9-5.72427L1.92.7
Washington RedskinsHouston Texans1Road-8.71.8-13.5617L-6.22.5
Baltimore RavensNew Orleans Saints12Road4.6-2.94.53427W7.12.5
Detroit LionsTampa Bay Buccaneers14Home1.8-9.814.63417W4.22.4
Denver BroncosNew York Jets6Road9.6-5.111.73117W11.92.3
Carolina PanthersTampa Bay Buccaneers1Road-3-9.83.72014W-0.82.3
Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars12Home4.5-10.317.7233W6.72.3
Kansas City ChiefsSan Diego Chargers7Road5.71.90.82320W7.92.2
San Diego ChargersArizona Cardinals1Road1.92-3.11718L42.1
Cleveland BrownsOakland Raiders8Home-3.9-8.882313W-1.82
Chicago BearsTampa Bay Buccaneers12Home-6.8-9.862113W-4.82
Dallas CowboysTennessee Titans2Road5.2-11.8142610W7.22
Green Bay PackersTampa Bay Buccaneers16Road8.2-9.815203W10.22
St. Louis RamsPhiladelphia Eagles5Road-0.83.9-7.72834L0.91.7
Oakland RaidersNew York Jets1Road-8.8-5.1-6.71419L-7.11.7
Jacksonville JaguarsPittsburgh Steelers5Home-10.32.3-9.6917L-8.71.6
Detroit LionsMiami Dolphins10Home1.82.42.52016W3.41.5
Cleveland BrownsBaltimore Ravens17Road-3.94.6-11.51020L-2.41.5
Jacksonville JaguarsDallas Cowboys10Lond-10.35.2-15.51731L-8.81.5
New York JetsMiami Dolphins13Home-5.12.4-4.41316L-3.61.4
Indianapolis ColtsHouston Texans15Home4.51.85.71710W5.81.3
New York JetsTennessee Titans15Road-5.1-11.83.71611W-3.81.3
Indianapolis ColtsDenver Broncos1Road4.59.6-8.12431L5.61.1
New York GiantsWashington Redskins15Home-1.7-8.7102413W-0.71
Minnesota VikingsTampa Bay Buccaneers8Road-1.7-9.85.11913W-0.80.9
New York GiantsDallas Cowboys12Home-1.75.2-3.92831L-0.80.9
Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans Saints17Home-9.8-2.9-3.92023L-8.90.9
Atlanta FalconsNew Orleans Saints1Home-3.7-2.92.23734W-2.90.8
Buffalo BillsDenver Broncos14Road4.99.6-7.71724L5.60.7
Seattle SeahawksSt. Louis Rams17Home9.5-0.813.4206W10.20.6
Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions17Home8.21.89.43020W8.80.6
Tennessee TitansJacksonville Jaguars6Home-11.8-10.31.51614W-11.30.5
Kansas City ChiefsOakland Raiders15Home5.7-8.817.53113W6.20.5
Detroit LionsChicago Bears16Road1.8-6.85.62014W2.20.4
New York JetsMinnesota Vikings14Road-5.1-1.7-6.42430L-4.70.4
Carolina PanthersChicago Bears5Home-3-6.86.73124W-2.80.3
Philadelphia EaglesTennessee Titans12Home3.9-11.818.74324W4.20.3
Kansas City ChiefsNew York Jets9Home5.7-5.113.72410W5.90.3
Carolina PanthersCleveland Browns16Home-3-3.93.81713W-2.90.2
Jacksonville JaguarsPhiladelphia Eagles1Road-10.33.9-17.21734L-10.10.2
Green Bay PackersMiami Dolphins6Road8.22.42.92724W8.40.1
Dallas CowboysNew York Giants7Home5.2-1.79.93121W5.30.1
Denver BroncosKansas City Chiefs2Home9.65.76.92417W9.70.1
St. Louis RamsDallas Cowboys3Home-0.85.2-33134L-0.80
New Orleans SaintsCleveland Browns2Road-2.9-3.9-22426L-2.90
Cleveland BrownsNew Orleans Saints2Home-3.9-2.922624W-3.90
Dallas CowboysSt. Louis Rams3Road5.2-0.833431W5.20
Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos2Road5.79.6-6.91724L5.6-0.1
New York GiantsDallas Cowboys7Road-1.75.2-9.92131L-1.8-0.1
Miami DolphinsGreen Bay Packers6Home2.48.2-2.92427L2.2-0.1
Philadelphia EaglesJacksonville Jaguars1Home3.9-10.317.23417W3.7-0.2
Cleveland BrownsCarolina Panthers16Road-3.9-3-3.81317L-4-0.2
New York JetsKansas City Chiefs9Road-5.15.7-13.71024L-5.3-0.3
Tennessee TitansPhiladelphia Eagles12Road-11.83.9-18.72443L-12.1-0.3
Chicago BearsCarolina Panthers5Road-6.8-3-6.72431L-7-0.3
Minnesota VikingsNew York Jets14Home-1.7-5.16.43024W-2.1-0.4
Chicago BearsDetroit Lions16Home-6.81.8-5.61420L-7.2-0.4
Oakland RaidersKansas City Chiefs15Road-8.85.7-17.51331L-9.3-0.5
Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee Titans6Road-10.3-11.8-1.51416L-10.8-0.5
Detroit LionsGreen Bay Packers17Road1.88.2-9.42030L1.2-0.6
St. Louis RamsSeattle Seahawks17Road-0.89.5-13.4620L-1.5-0.6
Denver BroncosBuffalo Bills14Home9.64.97.72417W8.9-0.7
New Orleans SaintsAtlanta Falcons1Road-2.9-3.7-2.23437L-3.7-0.8
New Orleans SaintsTampa Bay Buccaneers17Road-2.9-9.83.92320W-3.8-0.9
Dallas CowboysNew York Giants12Road5.2-1.73.93128W4.3-0.9
Tampa Bay BuccaneersMinnesota Vikings8Home-9.8-1.7-5.11319L-10.7-0.9
Washington RedskinsNew York Giants15Road-8.7-1.7-101324L-9.7-1
Denver BroncosIndianapolis Colts1Home9.64.58.13124W8.5-1.1
Tennessee TitansNew York Jets15Home-11.8-5.1-3.71116L-13.1-1.3
Houston TexansIndianapolis Colts15Road1.84.5-5.71017L0.5-1.3
Miami DolphinsNew York Jets13Road2.4-5.14.41613W0.9-1.4
Dallas CowboysJacksonville Jaguars10Lond5.2-10.315.53117W3.7-1.5
Baltimore RavensCleveland Browns17Home4.6-3.911.52010W3.1-1.5
Miami DolphinsDetroit Lions10Road2.41.8-2.51620L0.8-1.5
Pittsburgh SteelersJacksonville Jaguars5Road2.3-10.39.6179W0.7-1.6
New York JetsOakland Raiders1Home-5.1-8.86.71914W-6.8-1.7
Philadelphia EaglesSt. Louis Rams5Home3.9-0.87.73428W2.2-1.7
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGreen Bay Packers16Home-9.88.2-15320L-11.8-2
Tennessee TitansDallas Cowboys2Home-11.85.2-141026L-13.8-2
Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago Bears12Road-9.8-6.8-61321L-11.8-2
Oakland RaidersCleveland Browns8Road-8.8-3.9-81323L-10.9-2
Arizona CardinalsSan Diego Chargers1Home21.93.11817W-0.1-2.1
San Diego ChargersKansas City Chiefs7Home1.95.7-0.82023L-0.3-2.2
Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis Colts12Road-10.34.5-17.7323L-12.5-2.3
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers1Home-9.8-3-3.71420L-12-2.3
New York JetsDenver Broncos6Home-5.19.6-11.71731L-7.4-2.3
Tampa Bay BuccaneersDetroit Lions14Road-9.81.8-14.61734L-12.2-2.4
New Orleans SaintsBaltimore Ravens12Home-2.94.6-4.52734L-5.4-2.5
Houston TexansWashington Redskins1Home1.8-8.713.5176W-0.7-2.5
San Diego ChargersSt. Louis Rams12Home1.9-0.85.72724W-0.8-2.7
Philadelphia EaglesArizona Cardinals8Road3.92-1.12024L1-2.9
Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers17Road2-1-0.11720L-1-2.9
Detroit LionsBuffalo Bills5Home1.84.901417L-1.1-3
San Diego ChargersNew England Patriots14Home1.910.9-61423L-1.1-3
Denver BroncosSeattle Seahawks3Road9.69.5-2.92026L6.5-3.1
San Francisco 49ersArizona Cardinals3Road-12-5.91423L-4-3.1
New York JetsDetroit Lions4Home-5.11.8-3.91724L-8.2-3.1
San Francisco 49ersSan Diego Chargers16Home-11.90.23538L-4.1-3.2
Oakland RaidersArizona Cardinals7Home-8.82-7.81324L-12-3.2
San Diego ChargersDenver Broncos8Road1.99.6-10.72135L-1.4-3.3
Tennessee TitansHouston Texans8Home-11.81.8-10.61630L-15.2-3.4
Dallas CowboysHouston Texans5Home5.21.86.42017W1.8-3.4
Tennessee TitansJacksonville Jaguars16Road-11.8-10.3-4.51321L-15.3-3.5
Houston TexansPittsburgh Steelers7Road1.82.3-3.52330L-1.7-3.5
Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ers15Home9.5-113.5177W6-3.5
Baltimore RavensCleveland Browns3Road4.6-3.95.52321W1.1-3.5
Kansas City ChiefsArizona Cardinals14Road5.720.71417L2-3.7
Arizona CardinalsWashington Redskins6Home2-8.713.73020W-1.7-3.7
Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts17Home-11.84.5-13.31027L-15.5-3.7
Jacksonville JaguarsSan Diego Chargers4Road-10.31.9-15.21433L-14.1-3.8
Baltimore RavensCincinnati Bengals8Road4.60.80.92427L0.8-3.9
New Orleans SaintsTampa Bay Buccaneers5Home-2.9-9.89.93731W-6.8-3.9
Cleveland BrownsTampa Bay Buccaneers9Home-3.9-9.88.92217W-7.8-3.9
St. Louis RamsTampa Bay Buccaneers2Road-0.8-9.85.91917W-4.8-3.9
Green Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings12Road8.2-1.76.92421W4.3-3.9
Cleveland BrownsTennessee Titans5Road-3.9-11.852928W-7.8-4
Chicago BearsDallas Cowboys14Home-6.85.2-92841L-10.8-4
Cincinnati BengalsJacksonville Jaguars9Home0.8-10.314.13323W-3.3-4.1
Atlanta FalconsPittsburgh Steelers15Home-3.72.3-2.92027L-7.7-4.1
Minnesota VikingsChicago Bears17Home-1.7-6.88.1139W-5.8-4.1
New Orleans SaintsSan Francisco 49ers10Home-2.9-11.12427L-7-4.1
Washington RedskinsTennessee Titans7Home-8.7-11.86.11917W-12.8-4.1
Baltimore RavensIndianapolis Colts5Road4.64.5-2.81320L0.5-4.2
Cleveland BrownsBuffalo Bills13Road-3.94.9-11.71026L-8.1-4.3
Indianapolis ColtsCleveland Browns14Road4.5-3.95.32524W0.1-4.3
Jacksonville JaguarsMiami Dolphins8Home-10.32.4-9.61327L-14.6-4.4
Detroit LionsAtlanta Falcons8Lond1.8-3.75.52221W-2.7-4.5
Detroit LionsMinnesota Vikings15Home1.8-1.76.51614W-2.7-4.5
New England PatriotsGreen Bay Packers13Road10.98.2-0.32126L6.2-4.7
San Diego ChargersOakland Raiders6Road1.9-8.87.73128W-2.8-4.7
Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts4Road-11.84.5-19.31741L-16.5-4.7
Detroit LionsArizona Cardinals11Road1.82-3.1614L-3-4.9
Seattle SeahawksKansas City Chiefs11Road9.55.70.92024L4.7-4.9
Jacksonville JaguarsHouston Texans14Home-10.31.8-91327L-15.2-5
Atlanta FalconsNew York Giants5Road-3.7-1.7-52030L-8.7-5
Miami DolphinsMinnesota Vikings16Home2.4-1.77.13735W-2.7-5.1
Atlanta FalconsCleveland Browns12Home-3.7-3.93.22426L-8.9-5.2
San Diego ChargersKansas City Chiefs17Road1.95.7-6.8719L-3.3-5.2
Seattle SeahawksWashington Redskins5Road9.5-8.715.32717W4.3-5.3
Houston TexansIndianapolis Colts6Home1.84.50.32833L-3.5-5.3
Chicago BearsDetroit Lions13Road-6.81.8-11.61734L-12.2-5.4
New York GiantsPhiladelphia Eagles17Home-1.73.9-2.62634L-7.1-5.4
Arizona CardinalsSeattle Seahawks12Road29.5-10.6319L-3.5-5.4
Baltimore RavensTennessee Titans10Home4.6-11.819.5217W-0.8-5.5
Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh Steelers17Road0.82.3-4.51727L-4.7-5.5
Seattle SeahawksCarolina Panthers8Road9.5-39.6139W4-5.6
Carolina PanthersAtlanta Falcons11Home-3-3.73.61719L-8.7-5.6
Buffalo BillsChicago Bears1Road4.9-6.88.72320W-0.8-5.7
Washington RedskinsIndianapolis Colts13Road-8.74.5-16.22749L-14.5-5.8
San Francisco 49ersSt. Louis Rams9Home-1-0.82.91013L-6.8-5.9
Buffalo BillsHouston Texans4Road4.91.80.11723L-1.2-6.1
Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland Browns1Home2.3-3.99.13027W-3.9-6.1
St. Louis RamsArizona Cardinals15Home-0.820.2612L-7-6.2
Buffalo BillsKansas City Chiefs10Home4.95.72.21317L-1.3-6.2
Cincinnati BengalsTampa Bay Buccaneers13Road0.8-9.87.51413W-5.8-6.5
Indianapolis ColtsPhiladelphia Eagles2Home4.53.93.62730L-2.1-6.6
Atlanta FalconsCincinnati Bengals2Road-3.70.8-7.41024L-10.2-6.6
New York GiantsJacksonville Jaguars13Road-1.7-10.35.62425L-8.3-6.6
San Diego ChargersOakland Raiders11Home1.9-8.813.7136W-4.8-6.7
Carolina PanthersGreen Bay Packers7Road-38.2-14.31738L-9.8-6.7
Detroit LionsNew Orleans Saints7Home1.8-2.97.72423W-4.9-6.7
New York GiantsSeattle Seahawks10Road-1.79.5-14.21738L-8.5-6.8
Baltimore RavensSan Diego Chargers13Home4.61.95.83334L-2.1-6.8
San Francisco 49ersWashington Redskins12Home-1-8.710.81713W-7.7-6.8
Cincinnati BengalsCarolina Panthers6Home0.8-36.83737T-6-6.8
Philadelphia EaglesSan Francisco 49ers4Road3.9-11.92126L-3-6.9
Chicago BearsMiami Dolphins7Home-6.82.4-6.11427L-13.6-6.9
Tampa Bay BuccaneersAtlanta Falcons10Home-9.8-3.7-3.11727L-16.7-6.9
Minnesota VikingsWashington Redskins9Home-1.7-8.7102926W-8.7-7
Denver BroncosMiami Dolphins12Home9.62.410.23936W2.4-7.2
San Diego ChargersDenver Broncos15Home1.99.6-4.71022L-5.4-7.3
Chicago BearsNew England Patriots8Road-6.810.9-20.72351L-14.1-7.3
Philadelphia EaglesSeattle Seahawks14Home3.99.5-2.61424L-3.5-7.4
Tennessee TitansHouston Texans13Road-11.81.8-16.62145L-19.2-7.4
Carolina PanthersTampa Bay Buccaneers15Home-3-9.89.71917W-10.8-7.7
Atlanta FalconsMinnesota Vikings4Road-3.7-1.7-52841L-11.7-8
Pittsburgh SteelersTennessee Titans11Road2.3-11.811.12724W-5.8-8.1
New York GiantsSan Francisco 49ers11Home-1.7-12.31016L-10-8.3
Green Bay PackersBuffalo Bills15Road8.24.90.41321L-0.1-8.4
Kansas City ChiefsPittsburgh Steelers16Road5.72.30.41220L-2.7-8.4
Oakland RaidersHouston Texans2Home-8.81.8-7.61430L-17.2-8.4
San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks13Home-19.5-7.5319L-9.5-8.5
Buffalo BillsMinnesota Vikings7Home4.9-1.79.61716W-3.7-8.6
Oakland RaidersDenver Broncos10Home-8.89.6-15.41741L-17.4-8.6
Kansas City ChiefsSan Francisco 49ers5Road5.7-13.61722L-3-8.6
Green Bay PackersAtlanta Falcons14Home8.2-3.714.94337W-0.7-8.9
Chicago BearsGreen Bay Packers4Home-6.88.2-121738L-15.8-9
Houston TexansJacksonville Jaguars17Home1.8-10.3152317W-7.3-9
Minnesota VikingsNew Orleans Saints3Road-1.7-2.9-1.8920L-10.9-9.2
Green Bay PackersNew York Jets2Home8.2-5.116.33124W-1.1-9.3
Seattle SeahawksSt. Louis Rams7Road9.5-0.87.42628L0.2-9.4
New Orleans SaintsDallas Cowboys4Road-2.95.2-11.11738L-12.8-9.9
Baltimore RavensJacksonville Jaguars15Home4.6-10.317.92012W-5.3-9.9
Minnesota VikingsChicago Bears11Road-1.7-6.82.11321L-11.8-10.1
New York GiantsArizona Cardinals2Home-1.72-0.71425L-12-10.3
Arizona CardinalsDenver Broncos5Road29.6-10.62041L-8.4-10.4
Tennessee TitansCincinnati Bengals3Road-11.80.8-15.6733L-22.2-10.4
Atlanta FalconsBaltimore Ravens7Road-3.74.6-11.3729L-14.4-10.7
Houston TexansPhiladelphia Eagles9Home1.83.90.92131L-9.1-10.9
Pittsburgh SteelersNew Orleans Saints13Home2.3-2.98.23235L-8.9-11.2
St. Louis RamsArizona Cardinals10Road-0.82-5.81431L-12-11.2
Pittsburgh SteelersNew York Jets10Road2.3-5.14.41320L-9.1-11.4
San Francisco 49ersDenver Broncos7Road-19.6-13.51742L-12.4-11.5
Oakland RaidersDenver Broncos17Road-8.89.6-21.41447L-20.4-11.6
Baltimore RavensHouston Texans16Road4.61.8-0.11325L-7.2-11.9
Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots6Home4.910.9-32237L-7.1-12
New England PatriotsNew York Jets16Road10.9-5.1131716W-1.1-12
Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos13Home5.79.6-0.91629L-6.4-12.1
Buffalo BillsMiami Dolphins11Road4.92.4-0.5922L-7.6-12.5
Philadelphia EaglesWashington Redskins16Road3.9-8.79.62427L-8.7-12.6
Philadelphia EaglesWashington Redskins3Home3.9-8.715.63734W-8.7-12.6
New York JetsChicago Bears3Home-5.1-6.84.71927L-17.8-12.7
Buffalo BillsOakland Raiders16Road4.9-8.810.72426L-7.8-12.7
Philadelphia EaglesDallas Cowboys15Home3.95.21.72738L-8.8-12.7
Oakland RaidersMiami Dolphins4Lond-8.82.4-11.21438L-21.6-12.8
New York GiantsIndianapolis Colts9Home-1.74.5-3.22440L-14.5-12.8
Cincinnati BengalsNew England Patriots5Road0.810.9-13.11743L-12.1-12.9
Detroit LionsNew England Patriots12Road1.810.9-12.1934L-11.1-12.9
Houston TexansCincinnati Bengals12Home1.80.841322L-11.2-13
New York JetsBuffalo Bills8Home-5.14.9-72343L-18.1-13
Cleveland BrownsHouston Texans11Home-3.91.8-2.6723L-17.2-13.4
Minnesota VikingsNew England Patriots2Home-1.710.9-9.6730L-15.1-13.4
Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions6Home-1.71.8-0.5317L-15.2-13.5
Miami DolphinsBuffalo Bills2Road2.44.9-5.51029L-11.1-13.5
Houston TexansNew York Giants3Road1.8-1.70.51730L-11.7-13.5
Arizona CardinalsAtlanta Falcons13Road2-3.72.61829L-11.7-13.6
Carolina PanthersMinnesota Vikings13Road-3-1.7-4.31331L-16.7-13.7
Seattle SeahawksSan Diego Chargers2Road9.51.94.72130L-4.1-13.7
St. Louis RamsNew York Giants16Home-0.8-1.73.92737L-14.7-13.9
Baltimore RavensCincinnati Bengals1Home4.60.86.91623L-9.2-13.9
Carolina PanthersPhiladelphia Eagles10Road-33.9-102145L-17.1-14
Seattle SeahawksDallas Cowboys6Home9.55.27.32330L-4.8-14.3
New York GiantsDetroit Lions1Road-1.71.8-6.51435L-16.2-14.5
Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore Ravens2Road2.34.6-5.4626L-12.4-14.6
Denver BroncosCincinnati Bengals16Road9.60.85.82837L-5.2-14.8
Chicago BearsNew Orleans Saints15Home-6.8-2.9-0.91531L-21.9-15.1
Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis Colts3Home-10.34.5-11.71744L-25.5-15.3
Seattle SeahawksOakland Raiders9Home9.5-8.821.33024W-5.8-15.3
Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions3Road8.21.83.4719L-7.2-15.4
Kansas City ChiefsOakland Raiders12Road5.7-8.811.52024L-9.8-15.5
Carolina PanthersPittsburgh Steelers3Home-32.3-2.31937L-18.7-15.7
Miami DolphinsBaltimore Ravens14Home2.44.60.71328L-13.4-15.7
Green Bay PackersSeattle Seahawks1Road8.29.5-4.31636L-7.5-15.7
New England PatriotsOakland Raiders3Home10.9-8.822.7169W-4.8-15.7
San Francisco 49ersOakland Raiders14Road-1-8.84.91324L-16.8-15.9
Washington RedskinsDallas Cowboys17Home-8.75.2-10.91744L-24.8-16.1
Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers8Road4.52.3-0.83451L-11.7-16.2
New Orleans SaintsCincinnati Bengals11Home-2.90.8-0.71027L-19.2-16.3
Miami DolphinsNew England Patriots15Road2.410.9-11.51341L-14.1-16.5
San Francisco 49ersChicago Bears2Home-1-6.88.82028L-17.8-16.8
New England PatriotsNew York Jets7Home10.9-5.1192725W-6.1-17
New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills17Home10.94.99917L-6.1-17
St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ers6Home-0.8-13.11731L-18-17.1
Dallas CowboysArizona Cardinals9Home5.226.21728L-12-17.2
Carolina PanthersBaltimore Ravens4Road-34.6-10.71038L-20.4-17.3
St. Louis RamsKansas City Chiefs8Road-0.85.7-9.5734L-18.3-17.5
Denver BroncosNew England Patriots9Road9.610.9-4.32143L-8.1-17.7
Buffalo BillsSan Diego Chargers3Home4.91.961022L-13.1-18
Pittsburgh SteelersTampa Bay Buccaneers4Home2.3-9.815.12427L-15.8-18.1
New York GiantsPhiladelphia Eagles6Road-1.73.9-8.6027L-20.1-18.4
New England PatriotsMiami Dolphins1Road10.92.45.52033L-7.6-18.5
Indianapolis ColtsNew England Patriots11Home4.510.9-3.42042L-14.1-18.6
Miami DolphinsKansas City Chiefs3Home2.45.7-0.31534L-16.3-18.7
Detroit LionsCarolina Panthers2Road1.8-31.9724L-17-18.9
Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay Packers5Road-1.78.2-12.91042L-20.8-19.1
Washington RedskinsSt. Louis Rams14Home-8.7-0.8-4.9024L-27.8-19.1
Baltimore RavensPittsburgh Steelers9Road4.62.3-0.62343L-14.7-19.4
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaltimore Ravens6Home-9.84.6-11.41748L-29.4-19.6
New Orleans SaintsAtlanta Falcons16Home-2.9-3.73.81430L-22.7-19.8
Dallas CowboysWashington Redskins8Home5.2-8.716.91720L-14.7-19.9
Atlanta FalconsChicago Bears6Home-3.7-6.86.11327L-23.8-20.1
Dallas CowboysSan Francisco 49ers1Home5.2-19.21728L-15-20.2
Cincinnati BengalsIndianapolis Colts7Road0.84.5-6.7027L-19.5-20.3
Carolina PanthersNew Orleans Saints9Home-3-2.92.81028L-23.9-20.8
New York JetsSan Diego Chargers5Road-5.11.9-10031L-26.1-21
Cleveland BrownsJacksonville Jaguars7Road-3.9-10.33.4624L-25.3-21.4
Tennessee TitansNew York Giants14Home-11.8-1.7-7.1736L-33.7-21.9
New York JetsBuffalo Bills12Road-5.14.9-13338L-27.1-22
Denver BroncosSt. Louis Rams11Road9.6-0.87.4722L-12.8-22.4
Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh Steelers14Home0.82.31.52142L-21.7-22.5
Chicago BearsGreen Bay Packers10Road-6.88.2-181455L-29.8-23
Miami DolphinsNew York Jets17Home2.4-5.110.42437L-21.1-23.4
Washington RedskinsTampa Bay Buccaneers11Home-8.7-9.84727L-32.8-24
Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland Browns6Road2.3-3.93.11031L-21.9-24.1
Arizona CardinalsSeattle Seahawks16Home29.5-4.6635L-22.5-24.4
Philadelphia EaglesGreen Bay Packers11Road3.98.2-7.32053L-21.8-25.7
Jacksonville JaguarsWashington Redskins2Road-10.3-8.7-4.51041L-36.7-26.5
Washington RedskinsNew York Giants4Home-8.7-1.7-41445L-35.7-27
Dallas CowboysPhiladelphia Eagles13Home5.23.94.31033L-22.1-27.3
Cleveland BrownsCincinnati Bengals15Home-3.90.8-1.6030L-32.2-28.4
Cincinnati BengalsCleveland Browns10Home0.8-3.97.6324L-27.9-28.6
Green Bay PackersNew Orleans Saints8Road8.2-2.98.12344L-20.9-29.1
New England PatriotsKansas City Chiefs4Road10.95.72.21441L-18.3-29.2
Indianapolis ColtsDallas Cowboys16Road4.55.2-3.7742L-26.8-31.3
St. Louis RamsMinnesota Vikings1Home-0.8-1.73.9634L-32.7-31.9
Tampa Bay BuccaneersAtlanta Falcons3Road-9.8-3.7-9.11456L-42.7-32.9
Atlanta FalconsCarolina Panthers17Home-3.7-32.4334L-37-33.4
San Diego ChargersMiami Dolphins9Road1.92.4-3.5037L-31.6-33.5
New Orleans SaintsCarolina Panthers14Home-2.9-33.21041L-37-34.2
Kansas City ChiefsTennessee Titans1Home5.7-11.820.51026L-30.8-36.5
Oakland RaidersSt. Louis Rams13Road-8.8-0.8-11052L-49.8-41
  • The second least-conforming game of the year was Titans/Chiefs. Given that the Titans were expected to lose by 20.5 points, and won by 16, that gets my vote, even though I understand why the simple math was more impressed by the Rams blowout. Other games topping the list where the winning team pulled an SRS upset: the Panthers two blowouts of their NFC South rivals in December, the Vikings opening day upset win in St. Louis, the Chiefs 41-14 thrashing of the Patriots, and the Saints 19-point upset win over Green Bay.
  • Since the table is fully sortable, it’s fun to play around with some of the columns. For example, if you sort by win/loss, you will see that the least-conforming game in a positive way by a losing team was… the Jets near-upset of the Patriots in Foxboro. And New York’s near-upset at home also cracks the top five. Oakland, meanwhile, takes two of the top three slots with near road victories in Foxboro and Seattle, an impressive feat given that those two teams are in the Super Bowl and Oakland is, well, Oakland. The Raiders also beat the 49ers and Chiefs, presumably making Oakland one of the best giant-fighters among 3-win teams in NFL history.

Of course, by definition, every team must have the sum of their “diff” column equal zero, so having a lot of non-conforming games in one direction generally means several in the other direction, too. One way to measure how inconsistent a team was is to take the standard deviation of the “diff” rating for each team in every game; the larger the variance, the more inconsistent the team. And there was no more inconsistent team this year than St. Louis.

Here’s how to read the table below. St. Louis had an average margin of victory2 of -1.9, but faced a schedule that was 1.0 points tougher than average. As a result, St. Louis had an SRS rating of -0.8 (difference due to rounding), 18th best in the NFL. But the standard deviation of the St. Louis’ “diff” ratings in the table above was a whopping 17.1, the highest in the NFL.

RkTeamMOVSOSSRSSRS RkStDev
1St. Louis Rams-1.91-0.81817.1
2Carolina Panthers-2.2-0.9-32316.2
3Cincinnati Bengals1.3-0.50.81715.5
4New England Patriots9.71.210.9115.5
5New Orleans Saints-1.4-1.5-2.92215.3
6Atlanta Falcons-2.1-1.6-3.72415.1
7Dallas Cowboys7-1.85.2615
8Washington Redskins-8.6-0.2-8.72814.9
9Miami Dolphins0.81.62.41114.9
10Kansas City Chiefs4.51.25.7514.7
11Oakland Raiders-12.33.4-8.82914.5
12Green Bay Packers8.6-0.48.2414.3
13Pittsburgh Steelers4.3-22.31213.7
14Cleveland Browns-2.4-1.5-3.92513.7
15Philadelphia Eagles4.6-0.73.91013
16New York Giants-1.3-0.5-1.72012.8
17Tampa Bay Buccaneers-8.3-1.5-9.83012.7
18Indianapolis Colts5.6-1.14.5912.7
19New York Jets-7.42.3-5.12612.4
20Minnesota Vikings-1.1-0.6-1.72112.2
21San Diego Chargers01.91.91412.1
22Baltimore Ravens6.7-24.6811.7
23Buffalo Bills3.41.54.9711.7
24Tennessee Titans-11.5-0.3-11.83211.6
25Chicago Bears-7.70.9-6.82711.1
26Seattle Seahawks8.80.89.5310.8
27San Francisco 49ers-2.11.2-11910.5
28Denver Broncos81.69.6210.5
29Jacksonville Jaguars-10-0.3-10.33110.3
30Arizona Cardinals0.71.32139.9
31Detroit Lions2.3-0.41.8159.1
32Houston Texans4.1-2.31.8168.4
  • St. Louis beat the Raiders by 52, the Broncos by 15, won in Washington 24-0, and beat the Seahawks. Those four games would make you think St. Louis was perhaps the top team in the NFL. But the Rams also lost by 28 at home to the Vikings, by 27 to the Chiefs, by 14 at home to the 49ers, and by 10 at home to the Giants. Those four games would have you think St. Louis was challenging for the number one pick. And the randomness doesn’t have as much to do with the quarterback as you might think: Shaun Hill and Austin Davis each started two of the stinkers, while Davis also started the Seahawks game (Hill started the other three least-conforming games that went the Rams’ way).
  • It’s not surprising seeing the Panthers as the second most variable team this year. Carolina beat the Saints on the road by 31 but lost at home to New Orleans by 18. Carolina obliterated the Falcons and beat the Lions by 17, but were blown out by the Ravens, Steelers, Eagles, and Vikings. It was a weird year for the Panthers, but one that trended towards bad (as evidenced by the team’s 23rd slot in the SRS).
  • Does it feel weird seeing New England as a super-high variance team? That’s probably because the Patriots weren’t really a team that was all over the map in 2014. What happened here is New England started slow, with the team’s two worst games coming in weeks 1 and 4. New England’s third worst game probably didn’t even register for you, since it was the meaningless week 17 home loss to Buffalo. From the team’s 5th through 15th games, the Patriots “diff” ratings had a standard deviation of 11.7.
  • Your most consistent team of the year was the… Houston Texans! Houston faced seven teams in the bottom eight of the SRS, and went 7-0 in those games. But against the rest of the NFL, the Texans went just 2-7, although those two wins did come against two of the best teams the Texans faced in Baltimore and Buffalo. No team is perfectly consistent, but Houston was the league’s most consistent team this year.
  1. Technically, this bit of information is superfluous for the main point of this post, but I always err on the side of including interesting data. []
  2. Technically, this is home-field adjusted margin of victory. For 26 teams, this will be identical to the team’s MOV, since they each play 8 games at 8 and 8 on the road. For the six teams that played in London, however, this will yield a slightly different result. []