## Week Five (2014) College Football SRS Ratings: The SRS Is Back!

The past couple of weeks, I was using a quasi-Elo style rating system to produce college football team ratings. And while after five weeks it is still far too early to put much faith in any computer ratings, we can at least begin framing the discussion of which are the most impressive teams in college football. So, as we did last year, the first edition of the college football SRS ratings are coming out at the end of September. As a reminder, here is the methodology:

1) For each game not played at a neutral site, 3 points are given to the road team. After that adjustment, all wins and losses of between 7 and 24 points are recorded exactly as such. This means that a 24-10 road win goes down as +17 for the road team, -17 for the home team.

2) With one exception, wins of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7-point wins and losses of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7 point losses. So a 4-point home win goes down as +7 (and not a 1) and a 1-point home loss is a -7 (and not a -4). The one exception is that road losses of 3 or fewer (and home wins of 3 or fewer) are graded as ties. So a 21-20 home victory goes down as a 0 for both teams.

3) Wins/Losses of more than 24 points are scored as the average between the actual number and 24. This is to avoid giving undue credit to teams that run up the score. So a 75-point home win goes down as a 48-point win.

Once we have a rating for each team in each game, we then adjust each result for strength of schedule. This is an iterative process, where we adjust the ratings hundreds of times (to adjust for SOS, you have to adjust for the SOS of each opponent, and the SOS of each opponent’s opponent, and so on.) in Excel. Then we produce final ratings, where the SRS rating is the sum of the Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule in every week.

After five weeks, what are the results? As usual, the table is fully searchable (type “-0″, for example, to see a list of undefeated teams, or SEC to see all SEC teams.) Right now, the number one team is Oklahoma, with an average (adjusted) Margin of Victory of 24.6 points per game against an average opponent that is 43.3 points better than average (average includes all football teams at all levels, so all FBS teams will have a positive grade). Among undefeated teams, the only teams with tougher to-date schedules than Oklahoma are Auburn and UCLA. Below shows the ratings for all 128 FBS teams.

As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs.

RkTeamConfConf RkGMOVSOSSRSREC
1OklahomaB121424.643.367.94-0
2AuburnSEC142245.667.64-0
3AlabamaSEC2422.439.962.34-0
4BaylorB122433.528.762.24-0
5OregonP121422.138.660.74-0
6Texas A&MSEC3528.430.6595-0
7UCLAP12241444.258.24-0
8TCUB123329.728.3583-0
9MississippiSEC4425.931.857.74-0
11Notre DameInd142135.956.94-0
12GeorgiaSEC5416.140.456.53-1
13Kansas StB124413.441.755.13-1
14Michigan StB102421.333.554.73-1
15Brigham YoungInd2417.636.754.44-0
16Florida StACC1413.540.5544-0
17LSUSEC6520.433.253.64-1
18West VirginiaB12544.948.753.62-2
19ArkansasSEC7513.839.853.63-2
20Mississippi StSEC8420.632.853.44-0
21TennesseeSEC944.34953.32-2
22MarylandB103515.537.653.14-1
23MissouriSEC10513.538.652.14-1
24Southern CalP12341338.751.73-1
25Oklahoma StB12649.940.950.83-1
26Ohio StateB104415.634.149.73-1
27UtahP124417.531.949.43-1
28StanfordP12541633.249.23-1
29WisconsinB105417.631.248.83-1
30East CarolinaAmer1415.333.548.83-1
31FloridaSEC11310.737.748.42-1
32ClemsonACC246.940.547.42-2
33LouisvilleACC3516.830.347.14-1
34MarshallCUSA1425.920.646.54-0
35Virginia TechACC457.43946.43-2
36South CarolinaSEC125-1.74846.33-2
37VirginiaACC55739463-2
38ArizonaP126413.532.5464-0
39SyracuseACC64-0.346.245.92-2
40TexasB12743.442.645.92-2
41Miami FLACC756.538.344.83-2
42DukeACC8519.624.844.44-1
43WashingtonP127510.433.243.64-1
44MemphisAmer248.335.343.52-2
45PittsburghACC9510.732.843.53-2
46MinnesotaB1065835.143.14-1
47Louisiana TechCUSA25-1.344.242.92-3
48Georgia TechACC10412.529.942.44-0
49IowaB10756.23642.24-1
50Washington StP12852.339.7422-3
51TempleAmer3421.320.441.73-1
52CaliforniaP12948.53341.53-1
53Arizona StP1210410.830.741.43-1
54Boston CollegeACC1157.533.941.43-2
55IndianaB1084-0.641.640.92-2
56Penn StateB1095733.840.84-1
57North Carolina StACC12510.430.340.74-1
58Western KentuckyCUSA347.432.6402-2
59RutgersB101058.431.439.84-1
61Georgia SouthernSun1516.422.939.33-2
62KentuckySEC13411.827.339.13-1
63Iowa StB1284-11.850.7391-3
64Arkansas StSun240.338.7392-2
65NorthwesternB101144.534.338.82-2
66CincinnatiAmer43335.838.82-1
68Boise StMWC353.834.538.33-2
69Texas-San AntonioCUSA44-4.141.937.71-3
70NavyInd35-2.439.937.52-3
71Northern IllinoisMAC148.827.736.43-1
72AkronMAC240.336.236.42-2
73Florida AtlanticCUSA55-6.74336.32-3
74MichiganB10125-2.738.635.92-3
75Central FloridaAmer53-1.33735.71-2
76Texas TechB1294-4.339.535.22-2
77North CarolinaACC134-1.536.635.12-2
78Oregon StP121144.830.2353-1
79IllinoisB10135-5.239.934.73-2
80ToledoMAC35-0.134.634.53-2
81HoustonAmer647.826.734.52-2
82WyomingMWC45-943.334.33-2
83North TexasCUSA646.626.733.32-2
84Middle Tennessee StCUSA755.927.433.33-2
85Air ForceMWC5410.422.632.93-1
86Utah StMWC64-1.834.432.72-2
87RiceCUSA84-9.140.531.41-3
88Alabama-BirminghamCUSA946.624.330.92-2
89San José StMWC74-8.839.630.81-3
91PurdueB10145-6.236.730.52-3
92Ball StMAC44-232.530.51-3
93Hawai`iMWC84-6.336.530.31-3
94UTEPCUSA104-1.93230.12-2
95Fresno StMWC95-8.737.7292-3
96San Diego StMWC1043.825.128.92-2
97Western MichiganMAC544.823.928.72-2
98BuffaloMAC65-0.52928.53-2
99Texas St-San MarcosSun346.521.628.12-2
100Florida Int'lCUSA115-2.630.527.92-3
101South FloridaAmer75-9.336.827.52-3
102Central MichiganMAC75-4.63227.42-3
103South AlabamaSun44-3.929.325.42-2
104ArmyInd44-732.325.31-3
105Bowling GreenMAC85-4.329.3253-2
106Old DominionCUSA1250.624.224.83-2
107Wake ForestACC145-226.824.82-3
108KansasB12104-9.133.424.32-2
109TulsaAmer84-15.338.823.61-3
110VanderbiltSEC145-1740.623.61-4
111Ohio U.MAC95-2.325.523.23-2
112Miami OHMAC105-12.635.823.20-5
113Louisiana-MonroeSun54-326233-1
114TulaneAmer95-12.935.9231-4
115Louisiana-LafayetteSun64-12.634.421.81-3
116Southern MissCUSA135-15.937.121.22-3
117ConnecticutAmer105-14.535.120.61-4
118Appalachian StSun74-0.82120.31-3
119New Mexico StSun85-7.727.219.52-3
120MassachusettsMAC115-14.232.318.10-5
121New MexicoMWC114-1230181-3
122SMUAmer114-35.853.117.40-4
123Georgia StSun94-11.528.5171-3
124TroySun105-2034.514.50-5
125Kent StMAC124-22.536.113.60-4
126UNLVMWC125-18.230.512.31-4
127Eastern MichiganMAC134-23.535.411.91-3
128IdahoSun114-14.125.110.90-4

Again, the ratings here don’t provide near the utility they will in a few more weeks. Florida State is currently 16th, but we can expect them to rise as they play (and presumably beat) better teams. The SRS doesn’t know how good these teams actually are — no preseason information is used — all it knows is how the teams have played to date.

Once again, I’ve set up a page that shows the results of every single FBS game this season. You can view that page here. The single best performance so far this season came by BYU in week 2, when the Cougars went into Austin and defeated Texas (#40 in the SRS), 41-7. You can use that page to understand exactly how each team’s rating is derived. For example, you may wonder why Stanford is only 28th in these ratings. Well, the Cardinal got single-game ratings of 53.6 for a 7-point road win against Washington, 53.3 for a blowout of Army, 45.3 for a blowout of UC-Davis, and 44.7 for the 3-point home loss to USC. Once Stanford’s SOS increases — and a trip to South Bend next week will help do that — the Cardinal could rise in these ratings.

Finally, let’s look at each FBS team from week five, sorted from best to worst by SRS. At this point, it’s big blowouts over bad teams topping the list, but the table below is fully sortable and searchable. For example, if you sort by the SOS column (double click it to sort from best to worst teams), and type “win” in the search box, the table will sort based solely on which teams beat the best teams. In week 5, that was Texas A&M over Arkansas, Georgia over Tennessee, Washington State over Utah, Missouri over South Carolina, and Notre Dame over Syracuse. With many more high-profile games in week 6, that list will look more impressive next week.

DateTm_ConfPFOppPAH/RW/LDiffMOVOpp_ConfSOSSRS
09-27-2014LSU_SEC63New Mexico St7HomeWin5638.5Sun19.558
09-27-2014Michigan St_B1056Wyoming14HomeWin4231.5MWC34.365.8
09-27-2014Virginia_ACC45Kent St13HomeWin3226.5MAC13.640.1
09-27-2014Kansas St_B1258UTEP28HomeWin3025.5CUSA30.155.6
09-27-2014Auburn_SEC45Louisiana Tech17HomeWin2824.5CUSA42.967.4
09-27-2014Southern Cal_P1235Oregon St10HomeWin2522P123557
09-27-2014Rutgers_B1031Tulane6HomeWin2522Amer2345
09-27-2014Ohio State_B1050Cincinnati28HomeWin2219Amer38.857.8
09-27-2014Mississippi_SEC24Memphis3HomeWin2118Amer43.561.5
09-25-2014Georgia Southern_Sun34Appalachian St14HomeWin2017Sun20.337.3
09-27-2014Notre Dame_Ind31Syracuse15NeutWin1616ACC45.961.9
09-27-2014Virginia Tech_ACC35Western Michigan17HomeWin1815MAC28.743.7
09-27-2014Wisconsin_B1027South Florida10HomeWin1714Amer27.541.5
09-27-2014San Diego St_MWC34UNLV17HomeWin1714MWC12.326.3
09-27-2014Clemson_ACC50North Carolina35HomeWin1512ACC35.147.1
09-27-2014Ohio U._MAC34Eastern Illinois19HomeWin1512fcs17.429.4
09-27-2014Air Force_MWC28Boise St14HomeWin1411MWC38.349.3
09-27-2014Toledo_MAC42Central Michigan28HomeWin1411MAC27.438.4
09-27-2014Miami FL_ACC22Duke10HomeWin129ACC44.453.4
09-27-2014Texas A&M_SEC35Arkansas28NeutWin77SEC53.660.6
09-27-2014Florida Atlantic_CUSA41Texas-San Antonio37HomeWin47CUSA37.744.7
09-25-2014Oklahoma St_B1245Texas Tech35HomeWin107B1235.242.2
09-27-2014Louisville_ACC20Wake Forest10HomeWin107ACC24.831.8
09-27-2014Kentucky_SEC17Vanderbilt7HomeWin107SEC23.630.6
09-27-2014Buffalo_MAC35Miami OH27HomeWin87MAC23.230.2
09-27-2014Georgia_SEC35Tennessee32HomeWin30SEC53.353.3
09-27-2014Louisiana-Monroe_Sun22Troy20HomeWin20Sun14.514.5
09-27-2014Arkansas_SEC28Texas A&M35NeutLoss-7-7SEC5952
09-27-2014South Carolina_SEC20Missouri21HomeLoss-1-7SEC52.145.1
09-27-2014Utah_P1227Washington St28HomeLoss-1-7P124235
09-27-2014Tulsa_Amer34Texas St-San Marcos37HomeLoss-3-7Sun28.121.1
09-27-2014Massachusetts_MAC42Bowling Green47HomeLoss-5-8MAC2517
09-27-2014Washington_P1213Stanford20HomeLoss-7-10P1249.239.2
09-27-2014Navy_Ind27Western Kentucky36HomeLoss-9-12CUSA4028
09-27-2014Pittsburgh_ACC10Akron21HomeLoss-11-14MAC36.422.4
09-26-2014New Mexico_MWC24Fresno St35HomeLoss-11-14MWC2915
09-27-2014Syracuse_ACC15Notre Dame31NeutLoss-16-16Ind56.940.9
09-26-2014Old Dominion_CUSA28Middle Tennessee St41HomeLoss-13-16CUSA33.317.3
09-27-2014Purdue_B1010Iowa24HomeLoss-14-17B1042.225.2
09-27-2014Alabama-Birmingham_CUSA20Florida Int'l34HomeLoss-14-17CUSA27.910.9
09-27-2014North Carolina St_ACC41Florida St56HomeLoss-15-18ACC5436
09-27-2014Michigan_B1014Minnesota30HomeLoss-16-19B1043.124.1
09-27-2014Southern Miss_CUSA23Rice41HomeLoss-18-21CUSA31.410.4
09-27-2014Iowa St_B1228Baylor49HomeLoss-21-24B1262.238.2