Week Four College Football Ratings (2014)

by Chase Stuart on September 21, 2014

Last week, I unveiled some ELO-style college football ratings. Next week, with five weeks of data, I plan to run the first edition of the traditional SRS ratings. But for one more week, let’s stick with the current format.

Step 1) Twenty-five FBS teams were off in week 3, leaving 103 teams to analyze.

Step 2) In 25 of those matchups, one team had an SRS rating at least 15 points higher than its opponent. In 22 of those games, the favorite one; as a result, there is no change in either team’s rating following that game, so Oregon does not get downgraded for only beating Washington by 7 points on the road. But the three “upsets” include the big surprise of the week: Indiana going into Columbia and upsetting Missouri, 31-27. For those games, we’ll include them in Step 4.

Step 3) After eliminating the 22 heavy favorites who were victorious, there are 81 teams remaining. While some of those games were against FCS schools, 16 of the heavy underdogs in those games were against FBS schools. Since those teams will not have their ratings change, that leaves 65 teams to analyze.

Step 4) For all other teams, I modified each team’s rating following the result of that game, with 85% of the new rating coming from the old rating, and 15% coming from that single game.

Below are the ratings through four weeks. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs.

Post-Wk 4 Rk	Team	Post-Wk 4 SRS	Rec	Conf	Conf Rk	Wk 3 Rk	Wk 3 SRS
1	Oregon	64.2	4-0	P12	1	1	64.2
2	Alabama	63.2	4-0	SEC	1	2	63.2
3	Florida St	61.7	3-0	ACC	1	3	61.7
4	Oklahoma	59.1	4-0	B12	1	4	58.9
5	Stanford	58.4	2-1	P12	2	5	58.4
6	Auburn	55.4	3-0	SEC	2	9	54.8
7	Texas A&M	55.1	4-0	SEC	3	8	55.1
8	Georgia	54.3	2-1	SEC	4	10	54.3
9	LSU	53	3-1	SEC	5	7	55.7
10	Notre Dame	52.9	3-0	Ind	1	11	52.9
11	Michigan St	52.9	2-1	B10	1	12	52.9
12	Brigham Young	52.5	4-0	Ind	2	13	52.5
13	Oklahoma St	52.5	2-1	B12	2	14	52.5
14	South Carolina	52.2	3-1	SEC	6	15	52.2
15	UCLA	52	3-0	P12	3	16	52
16	Missouri	51.9	3-1	SEC	7	6	55.8
17	Arizona St	51.2	3-0	P12	4	17	51.2
18	Southern Cal	50.5	2-1	P12	5	18	50.5
19	Mississippi	50.2	3-0	SEC	8	20	50.2
20	Baylor	49.9	3-0	B12	3	21	49.9
21	Kansas St	49.5	2-1	B12	4	19	50.2
22	Wisconsin	49.4	2-1	B10	2	22	49.4
23	Ohio State	48.8	2-1	B10	3	23	48.8
24	Washington	48.3	4-0	P12	6	24	48.3
25	Mississippi St	48.2	4-0	SEC	9	30	45.4
26	Utah	48	3-0	P12	7	29	45.5
27	Oregon St	47.6	3-0	P12	8	25	47.1
28	Nebraska	46.9	4-0	B10	4	26	46.9
29	Louisville	46.5	3-1	ACC	2	27	46.5
30	Clemson	45.5	1-2	ACC	3	28	45.5
31	TCU	45.1	2-0	B12	5	32	45.1
32	West Virginia	44.8	2-2	B12	6	33	44.9
33	Iowa	44.7	3-1	B10	5	35	44.2
34	Florida	44.4	2-1	SEC	10	34	44.4
35	Virginia Tech	43.7	2-2	ACC	4	31	45.3
36	Boise St	43.7	3-1	MWC	1	36	43.7
37	Arkansas	43.5	3-1	SEC	11	52	37.9
38	Central Florida	43.5	1-2	Amer	1	37	43.5
39	Georgia Tech	43.2	4-0	ACC	5	44	41
40	Texas	42.4	1-2	B12	7	40	42.4
41	East Carolina	41.7	3-1	Amer	2	55	37
42	Arizona	41.6	4-0	P12	9	38	43.2
43	Cincinnati	41.5	2-0	Amer	3	42	41.5
44	Houston	41.4	2-2	Amer	4	43	41.4
45	Penn State	40.6	4-0	B10	6	45	40.6
46	Michigan	40.5	2-2	B10	7	39	43
47	Duke	40.3	4-0	ACC	6	47	40.3
48	Pittsburgh	40.3	3-1	ACC	7	48	40.3
49	Miami FL	39.8	2-2	ACC	8	46	40.4
50	Maryland	39.5	3-1	B10	8	53	37.6
51	Indiana	39.3	2-1	B10	9	60	35.6
52	Marshall	37.7	4-0	CUSA	1	69	34.6
53	Texas Tech	37.3	2-1	B12	8	54	37.3
54	Rutgers	36.9	3-1	B10	10	66	34.9
55	Boston College	36.9	3-1	ACC	9	70	34.2
56	Virginia	36.9	2-2	ACC	10	56	36.9
57	North Carolina	36.7	2-1	ACC	11	41	41.9
58	Navy	36.5	2-2	Ind	3	50	38.6
59	North Carolina St	35.9	4-0	ACC	12	57	35.9
60	Northwestern	35.8	1-2	B10	11	58	35.8
61	Syracuse	35.8	2-1	ACC	13	51	38.5
62	Temple	35.7	2-1	Amer	5	59	35.7
63	Tennessee	35.5	2-1	SEC	12	61	35.5
64	Texas-San Antonio	35.4	1-2	CUSA	2	62	35.4
65	Minnesota	35.3	3-1	B10	12	68	34.7
66	Nevada	35.2	2-1	MWC	2	63	35.2
67	Iowa St	35	1-2	B12	9	64	35
68	Kentucky	35	2-1	SEC	13	65	35
69	Washington St	34.9	1-3	P12	10	67	34.9
70	Toledo	33.9	2-2	MAC	1	71	33.7
71	Northern Illinois	33.8	3-1	MAC	2	49	40.2
72	California	33	2-1	P12	11	74	31.2
73	San Diego St	32.2	1-2	MWC	3	72	32.8
74	Bowling Green	30.8	2-2	MAC	3	75	30.8
75	Vanderbilt	30.2	1-3	SEC	14	76	30.2
76	Fresno St	30	1-3	MWC	4	87	26
77	Memphis	29.6	2-1	Amer	6	84	27.7
78	Colorado St	29.6	2-1	MWC	5	77	29.6
79	Western Kentucky	28.7	1-2	CUSA	3	79	28.7
80	Louisiana Tech	28.6	2-2	CUSA	4	73	32.4
81	Connecticut	28.3	1-3	Amer	7	81	28.3
82	Utah St	28.3	2-2	MWC	6	78	29.3
83	Tulane	28	1-3	Amer	8	83	28
84	Florida Atlantic	27.3	1-3	CUSA	5	82	28.1
85	Illinois	27.3	3-1	B10	13	80	28.7
86	Arkansas St	27.1	2-2	Sun	1	88	26
87	North Texas	27	2-2	CUSA	6	86	27
88	Louisiana-Lafayette	25.4	1-3	Sun	2	89	25.4
89	Western Michigan	24.9	2-1	MAC	4	108	20.6
90	Tulsa	24.7	1-2	Amer	9	92	24.7
91	San José St	24.4	1-2	MWC	7	93	24.7
92	South Florida	24.4	2-2	Amer	10	95	23.7
93	Kansas	24.3	2-1	B12	10	101	21.6
94	Army	23.9	1-2	Ind	4	94	24.2
95	Ball St	23.8	1-3	MAC	5	97	22.9
96	Purdue	23.5	2-2	B10	14	111	19.5
97	Middle Tennessee St	23.2	2-2	CUSA	7	90	25.2
98	Buffalo	22.4	2-2	MAC	6	99	22.4
99	Rice	22.4	0-3	CUSA	8	91	24.9
100	Wake Forest	22	2-2	ACC	14	100	21.6
101	Hawai`i	21.5	1-3	MWC	8	98	22.8
102	Central Michigan	21.4	2-2	MAC	7	96	23.3
103	SMU	21.3	0-3	Amer	11	103	21.3
104	South Alabama	21.2	1-2	Sun	3	85	27.4
105	Air Force	21.2	2-1	MWC	9	104	21.2
106	Colorado	21.2	2-2	P12	12	110	20.1
107	Wyoming	21.1	3-1	MWC	10	105	21.1
108	Kent St	20.9	0-3	MAC	8	106	20.9
109	Alabama-Birmingham	20.8	2-1	CUSA	9	107	20.8
110	Louisiana-Monroe	20.3	2-1	Sun	4	109	20.3
111	Ohio U.	20.1	2-2	MAC	9	113	19.4
112	UNLV	19.4	1-3	MWC	11	112	19.4
113	UTEP	19	2-1	CUSA	10	114	19
114	Florida Int'l	18.5	1-3	CUSA	11	115	18.5
115	Akron	18.3	1-2	MAC	10	102	21.4
116	Georgia Southern	17.5	2-2	Sun	5	122	11.3
117	Old Dominion	17.4	3-1	CUSA	12	118	15
118	Texas St-San Marcos	16.8	1-2	Sun	6	117	15.4
119	Southern Miss	16.1	2-2	CUSA	13	116	17.2
120	New Mexico	14	1-2	MWC	12	120	13.6
121	Idaho	13.2	0-3	Sun	7	119	13.7
122	Appalachian St	13.1	1-2	Sun	8	121	12.1
123	Georgia St	11	1-3	Sun	9	123	11
124	Troy	10.4	0-4	Sun	10	124	10.4
125	Miami OH	10.2	0-4	MAC	11	125	10.2
126	New Mexico St	9.2	2-2	Sun	11	126	9.5
127	Massachusetts	9.2	0-4	MAC	12	127	9.2
128	Eastern Michigan	7.1	1-3	MAC	13	128	7.1

Arkansas and East Carolina were two of the big movers in week four. The Razorbacks beat a Northern Illinois team that had a higher SRS rating entering the week by the score of 52-14 (although Arkansas was favored by two touchdowns). It appears as though Bret Bielema has Arkansas on the rise, on the heels of last week’s big win against Texas Tech. East Carolina dropped 70 on North Carolina, as quarterback Shane Carden has the Pirates offense humming.

Mississippi State won in Baton Rouge, helping the Bullsdogs jump into the top 25. Utah, victorious in Ann Arbor yesterday, is right on the border at #26. Georgia Tech jumped into the top 40 with a comeback win over Virginia Tech.

Of course, NIU and UNC plummeted in the ratings after blowout losses. LSU only fell to 9th, although we’ll see how the Tigers look in next week’s rankings (my guess: quite a bit worse). Missouri fell from #7 to #16, and that will likely only look worse in next week’s rankings.

The Big Ten is still really bad, but — other than Michigan — it was a good week for the conference. Indiana scored one of the wins of the week, helping the conference earn respectability by giving them a road win against a good SEC team. As a reminder: this is Indiana we are talking about here! The Hoosiers have had a losing record in conference in every year since 2001. Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin blew out overmatched opponents, while Nebraska earned a win for nostalgia’s sake by defeating the Hurricanes by ten points.

Tagged as: NCAA SRS

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