I thought it would be fun to create NFL SRS ratings through three weeks and one Thursday Night football game. After just 3.0625 weeks, all data are heavily influenced by events that are unlikely to be repeated.  Remember Neil’s old post that showed how for teams with any record, to determine their “true winning percentage”, we need to add 5.5 wins and 5.5 losses. That means through three weeks, a team’s actual record should still be regressed to league average by nearly 80%; in other words, take all these ratings with a big grain of salt.  But there’s no reason not to run the numbers, so here are the customary parameters:

• Home wins of less than 3 points are treated as ties;

• For all other games, give the road team 3 points.  From there, wins of fewer than 7 points are treated as 7-point wins;

• Wins of between 7 and 24 points (after adjusting for home field) are treated as they are.  So a 14-point home win is a 11-point MOV, and a 17-point road win is a 20-point MOV;

• Wins of greater than 24 points convert to a Margin of Victory that is the average of 24 and the HFA-adjusted MOV.  So the Falcons get a 31.5 for beating Tampa Bay by 42 at home, while the Giants get a MOV of 29 for winning in Washington by 31.

From there, we simple use the typical SRS iteration process to produce a set a season ratings. Those are presented below:

• You won’t be too surprised to see the Bengals atop the ratings. But you might be surprised to see the 2-1 Ravens up at #2 on the list. Then again, Baltimore lost a close game to Cincinnati, beat Pittsburgh by 20, and beat a Cleveland team that checks in at #8.

• Wait, why is Cleveland #8? Well, the Browns have played the Ravens, Steelers, and Saints, and have a points differential of just -3. ^[1]Actually, they’re even more harmed in the SRS, where that points differential turns into -14. That’s pretty good, considering Baltimore is #2, Pittsburgh is #6, and New Orleans is #11.

• Wait, the Steelers are #6? Well, Pittsburgh doesn’t get dinged for losing badly to Baltimore, because the Ravens are the 2nd ranked team. Essentially, the SRS says in order to make the ratings converge, we need to set the Bengals’ rating at a really high number.  And since Baltimore only bad game was against the Bengals, we need to give the Ravens a really high rating, which means Pittsburgh can lose by 20 to the Ravens and still check in as well above average. What really helps is that the Steelers blew out #14 Carolina in Carolina. Since Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland are so connected, that game matters a lot. In fact, here is how all AFC North teams have done in non-division games this year:
  • Pittsburgh beat #14 Carolina on the road by 18
  • Cleveland beat #11 New Orleans at home by 2
  • Cincinnati beat #5 Atlanta by 14 at home
  • Cincinnati beat #18 Tennessee by 26 at home ^[2]The Ravens have not played a non-divisional road game this year.
• Let that sink in for a minute: the AFC North is 4-0 in inter-divisional games this year, with the four wins coming by an average of 15 points again pretty decent teams. That’s how they have four of the top eight teams in the SRS.

• Things like the Browns being very good makes the Saints look a lot better. In fact, New Orleans posted its worst game of the year by SRS standards in its lone win. New Orleans gets an SRS of +10 for playing to a 2-point loss in Cleveland, a +8.5 for losing by three in Atlanta, and only +2.1 for beating Minnesota at home by 11 points.

• In non-AFC North news, the thing that really stands out is Philadelphia’s 27th-place rating. So what gives? Jacksonville is horrible — the SRS puts them at 36.8 points below average — and the Eagles only beat them by 17 points at home. For reference, Jacksonville lost its other two games by 27 (at home) and 31 (on the road) points. The Eagles are also penalized for barely beating Washington. And Washington is terrible according to the SRS, ranking 31st courtesy of losing badly to the Giants, beating Jacksonville, and losing by 11 in Houston (the #22 team) in its non-Eagles games.

• What about that Colts win? Well, Indianapolis is only 26th in the ratings; after all, the Colts only beat Jacksonville, which doesn’t mean anything.  And in the team’s only other non-Eagles game, Indianapolis lost to Denver. But that doesn’t help much because the Broncos are only 17th. Why is that? Well, Denver won by 7 at home against a bad Chiefs team and lost by 6 on the road to a good Seahawks team. In other words, the SRS doesn’t know how good Denver is.  Had Denver blown out Kansas City, that would really have helped the ratings of Denver, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia, but instead, that game is dragging down the scores of all three teams.

The best way to learn about a team’s rating on the season is to see its single game ratings. To make that easy, I’ve included each team’s rating from each game in the table below. You can search for any team by using the search box. Here’s how to read the table if you type “Jets” into the search box. New York’s best game came in a 27-19 loss at home to Chicago, which provides a MOV of -11. Since the Bears are 7.4 points above average, the Jets get a rating of -3.6 for that game.

W#	Team	H/R	Opp	PF	PA	Win	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Baltimore Ravens	23	16	Win	10	22.2	32.2
2	Baltimore Ravens		Pittsburgh Steelers	26	6	Win	17	15	32
2	Cincinnati Bengals		Atlanta Falcons	24	10	Win	11	15.5	26.5
3	Cincinnati Bengals		Tennessee Titans	33	7	Win	23.5	0.4	23.9
3	San Diego Chargers	@	Buffalo Bills	22	10	Win	15	8.5	23.5
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Carolina Panthers	37	19	Win	21	1.8	22.8
2	Dallas Cowboys	@	Tennessee Titans	26	10	Win	19	0.4	19.4
2	New England Patriots	@	Minnesota Vikings	30	7	Win	25	-5.9	19.1
1	Arizona Cardinals		San Diego Chargers	18	17	Win	0	19.1	19.1
1	Detroit Lions		New York Giants	35	14	Win	18	0.6	18.6
2	San Diego Chargers		Seattle Seahawks	30	21	Win	7	10.8	17.8
2	Chicago Bears	@	San Francisco 49ers	28	20	Win	11	6.8	17.8
2	Carolina Panthers		Detroit Lions	24	7	Win	14	3.7	17.7
1	Baltimore Ravens		Cincinnati Bengals	16	23	Loss	-10	27.5	17.5
3	Baltimore Ravens	@	Cleveland Browns	23	21	Win	7	10	17
1	Pittsburgh Steelers		Cleveland Browns	30	27	Win	7	10	17
2	Atlanta Falcons	@	Cincinnati Bengals	10	24	Loss	-11	27.5	16.5
3	Atlanta Falcons		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	56	14	Win	31.5	-15.3	16.2
1	San Diego Chargers	@	Arizona Cardinals	17	18	Loss	0	15.8	15.8
3	Cleveland Browns		Baltimore Ravens	21	23	Loss	-7	22.2	15.2
1	San Francisco 49ers	@	Dallas Cowboys	28	17	Win	14	1.1	15.1
1	Tennessee Titans	@	Kansas City Chiefs	26	10	Win	19	-4	15
2	Arizona Cardinals	@	New York Giants	25	14	Win	14	0.6	14.6
1	Buffalo Bills	@	Chicago Bears	23	20	Win	7	7.4	14.4
1	Atlanta Falcons		New Orleans Saints	37	34	Win	7	6.9	13.9
3	Arizona Cardinals		San Francisco 49ers	23	14	Win	7	6.8	13.8
3	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Miami Dolphins	34	15	Win	22	-8.9	13.1
1	Seattle Seahawks		Green Bay Packers	36	16	Win	17	-4.2	12.8
2	Seattle Seahawks	@	San Diego Chargers	21	30	Loss	-7	19.1	12.1
1	Minnesota Vikings	@	St. Louis Rams	34	6	Win	27.5	-15.9	11.6
4	New York Giants	@	Washington Redskins	45	14	Win	29	-18.2	10.8
2	New Orleans Saints	@	Cleveland Browns	24	26	Loss	0	10	10
3	San Francisco 49ers	@	Arizona Cardinals	14	23	Loss	-7	15.8	8.8
1	New Orleans Saints	@	Atlanta Falcons	34	37	Loss	-7	15.5	8.5
1	Cleveland Browns	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	30	Loss	-7	15	8
3	Seattle Seahawks		Denver Broncos	26	20	Win	7	0.6	7.6
2	Buffalo Bills		Miami Dolphins	29	10	Win	16	-8.9	7.1
2	Cleveland Browns		New Orleans Saints	26	24	Win	0	6.9	6.9
1	Miami Dolphins		New England Patriots	33	20	Win	10	-3.1	6.9
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Baltimore Ravens	6	26	Loss	-17	22.2	5.2
3	Detroit Lions		Green Bay Packers	19	7	Win	9	-4.2	4.8
3	New York Giants		Houston Texans	30	17	Win	10	-5.8	4.2
3	Buffalo Bills		San Diego Chargers	10	22	Loss	-15	19.1	4.1
3	Tennessee Titans	@	Cincinnati Bengals	7	33	Loss	-23.5	27.5	4
3	Denver Broncos	@	Seattle Seahawks	20	26	Loss	-7	10.8	3.8
2	Denver Broncos		Kansas City Chiefs	24	17	Win	7	-4	3
3	Chicago Bears	@	New York Jets	27	19	Win	11	-8.2	2.8
2	Houston Texans	@	Oakland Raiders	30	14	Win	19	-16.7	2.3
3	New Orleans Saints		Minnesota Vikings	20	9	Win	8	-5.9	2.1
2	New York Giants		Arizona Cardinals	14	25	Loss	-14	15.8	1.8
1	Chicago Bears		Buffalo Bills	20	23	Loss	-7	8.5	1.5
3	Minnesota Vikings	@	New Orleans Saints	9	20	Loss	-8	6.9	-1.1
2	Green Bay Packers		New York Jets	31	24	Win	7	-8.2	-1.2
2	San Francisco 49ers		Chicago Bears	20	28	Loss	-11	7.4	-3.6
3	New York Jets		Chicago Bears	19	27	Loss	-11	7.4	-3.6
2	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Indianapolis Colts	30	27	Win	7	-12.1	-5.1
1	Denver Broncos		Indianapolis Colts	31	24	Win	7	-12.1	-5.1
3	Green Bay Packers	@	Detroit Lions	7	19	Loss	-9	3.7	-5.3
3	St. Louis Rams		Dallas Cowboys	31	34	Loss	-7	1.1	-5.9
3	Carolina Panthers		Pittsburgh Steelers	19	37	Loss	-21	15	-6
1	Green Bay Packers	@	Seattle Seahawks	16	36	Loss	-17	10.8	-6.2
1	Carolina Panthers	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20	14	Win	9	-15.3	-6.3
1	Indianapolis Colts	@	Denver Broncos	24	31	Loss	-7	0.6	-6.4
2	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Denver Broncos	17	24	Loss	-7	0.6	-6.4
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Carolina Panthers	14	20	Loss	-9	1.8	-7.2
1	Dallas Cowboys		San Francisco 49ers	17	28	Loss	-14	6.8	-7.2
2	Miami Dolphins	@	Buffalo Bills	10	29	Loss	-16	8.5	-7.5
2	St. Louis Rams	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	17	Win	7	-15.3	-8.3
3	Dallas Cowboys	@	St. Louis Rams	34	31	Win	7	-15.9	-8.9
3	Houston Texans	@	New York Giants	17	30	Loss	-10	0.6	-9.4
3	New England Patriots		Oakland Raiders	16	9	Win	7	-16.7	-9.7
1	New York Jets		Oakland Raiders	19	14	Win	7	-16.7	-9.7
3	Indianapolis Colts	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	44	17	Win	27	-36.8	-9.8
3	Oakland Raiders	@	New England Patriots	9	16	Loss	-7	-3.1	-10.1
1	Houston Texans		Washington Redskins	17	6	Win	8	-18.2	-10.2
2	Washington Redskins		Jacksonville Jaguars	41	10	Win	26	-36.8	-10.8
2	New York Jets	@	Green Bay Packers	24	31	Loss	-7	-4.2	-11.2
3	Philadelphia Eagles		Washington Redskins	37	34	Win	7	-18.2	-11.2
2	Detroit Lions	@	Carolina Panthers	7	24	Loss	-14	1.8	-12.2
1	Washington Redskins	@	Houston Texans	6	17	Loss	-8	-5.8	-13.8
1	New York Giants	@	Detroit Lions	14	35	Loss	-18	3.7	-14.3
1	Oakland Raiders	@	New York Jets	14	19	Loss	-7	-8.2	-15.2
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Atlanta Falcons	14	56	Loss	-31.5	15.5	-16
2	Tennessee Titans		Dallas Cowboys	10	26	Loss	-19	1.1	-17.9
1	Kansas City Chiefs		Tennessee Titans	10	26	Loss	-19	0.4	-18.6
1	New England Patriots	@	Miami Dolphins	20	33	Loss	-10	-8.9	-18.9
2	Indianapolis Colts		Philadelphia Eagles	27	30	Loss	-7	-13	-20
3	Washington Redskins	@	Philadelphia Eagles	34	37	Loss	-7	-13	-20
1	Philadelphia Eagles		Jacksonville Jaguars	34	17	Win	14	-36.8	-22.8
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		St. Louis Rams	17	19	Loss	-7	-15.9	-22.9
2	Oakland Raiders		Houston Texans	14	30	Loss	-19	-5.8	-24.8
3	Miami Dolphins		Kansas City Chiefs	15	34	Loss	-22	-4	-26
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Philadelphia Eagles	17	34	Loss	-14	-13	-27
2	Minnesota Vikings		New England Patriots	7	30	Loss	-25	-3.1	-28.1
4	Washington Redskins		New York Giants	14	45	Loss	-29	0.6	-28.4
1	St. Louis Rams		Minnesota Vikings	6	34	Loss	-27.5	-5.9	-33.4
3	Jacksonville Jaguars		Indianapolis Colts	17	44	Loss	-27	-12.1	-39.1
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Washington Redskins	10	41	Loss	-26	-18.2	-44.2