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Week Seven (2016) College Football SRS Ratings

Last week, Michigan jumped to number one in the SRS after demolishing Rutgers. The Wolverines, on bye, stayed at number one this week, but the Crimson Tide are coming after them. The top team of week 7 was Alabama, who destroyed a good conference opponent in Tennessee.  Here’s what you need to know: the Crimson Tide….

  • outgained the Vols, 613-201;
  • outrushed the Vols, 438-32, the most rushing yards by Alabama in 30 years; and
  • scored on both a punt return and an interception return, winning 49-7.

Given that the Volunteers have an SRS rating of 50.4, and that the game was in Tennessee, a 39-point road victory translates to an SRS rating of 83.4; no other team in week 7 cracked 70.

The second best win came from West Virginia; at 5-0 and now #16 in the SRS, it may be time to start watching the Mountaineers more closely.  WVU’s toughest opponents to date have been BYU and Kansas State, and both were close wins.  But the Big 12’s best hope for national relevance is for both West Virginia and Baylor to enter their December 3rd matchup undefeated. Unlikely, of course, but that’s at least a path.

Oh, and the Western Michigan hype machine should keep rolling.  The Broncos destroyed Akron, which may not sound that impressive, but for reference: WMU won 41-0 in Akron, while Wisconsin won 54-10 at home against the Zips. Running back Jarvion Franklin had 33 carries for 281 yards in the win.

Below are the single-game results from week 7:

DateTm_ConfPFOppPAH/RW/LDiffMOVOpp_ConfSOSSRS
10-15-2016Alabama_SEC49Tennessee10RoadWin3933SEC50.483.4
10-15-2016West Virginia_B1248Texas Tech17RoadWin3129B1240.669.6
10-15-2016Western Michigan_MAC41Akron0RoadWin4134MAC34.468.4
10-15-2016Ohio State_B1030Wisconsin23RoadWin710B1058.168.1
10-15-2016Southern Cal_P1248Arizona14RoadWin3430.5P1236.867.3
10-15-2016Oklahoma_B1238Kansas St17HomeWin2118B1246.464.4
10-15-2016Colorado_P1240Arizona St16HomeWin2421P1242.763.7
10-15-2016Syracuse_ACC31Virginia Tech17HomeWin1411ACC51.362.3
10-15-2016North Carolina_ACC20Miami FL13RoadWin710ACC51.861.8
10-15-2016Arkansas_SEC34Mississippi30HomeWin47SEC54.761.7
10-15-2016Minnesota_B1031Maryland10RoadWin2124B1037.361.3
10-15-2016Florida_SEC40Missouri14HomeWin2623SEC37.660.6
10-15-2016LSU_SEC45Southern Miss10HomeWin3528CUSA31.359.3
10-15-2016Wisconsin_B1023Ohio State30HomeLoss-7-10B106858
10-15-2016Clemson_ACC24North Carolina St17HomeWin77ACC49.156.1
10-15-2016Washington St_P1227UCLA21HomeWin67P1248.155.1
10-15-2016North Carolina St_ACC17Clemson24RoadLoss-7-7ACC61.954.9
10-15-2016Baylor_B1249Kansas7HomeWin4231.5B1222.153.6
10-14-2016Duke_ACC14Louisville24RoadLoss-10-7ACC60.453.4
10-15-2016Florida St_ACC17Wake Forest6HomeWin118ACC44.352.3
10-15-2016Northwestern_B1054Michigan St40RoadWin1417B1034.851.8
10-09-2016Georgia_SEC28South Carolina14RoadWin1417SEC34.751.7
10-15-2016Pittsburgh_ACC45Virginia31RoadWin1417ACC33.150.1
10-15-2016Temple_Amer26Central Florida25RoadWin17Amer43.150.1
10-15-2016Stanford_P1217Notre Dame10RoadWin710IND39.349.3
10-12-2016Appalachian St_SUN24Louisiana-Lafayette0RoadWin2425.5SUN23.749.2
10-15-2016UCLA_P1221Washington St27RoadLoss-6-7P125649
10-14-2016Memphis_Amer24Tulane14RoadWin1013Amer35.848.8
10-15-2016Nebraska_B1027Indiana22RoadWin58B1040.848.8
10-15-2016Texas_B1227Iowa St6HomeWin2118B1230.548.5
10-15-2016Louisiana Tech_CUSA56Massachusetts28NeutWin2826IND22.248.2
10-15-2016Tulsa_Amer31Houston38RoadLoss-7-7Amer54.247.2
10-15-2016Houston_Amer38Tulsa31HomeWin77Amer40.147.1
10-15-2016Wake Forest_ACC6Florida St17RoadLoss-11-8ACC5547
10-15-2016Illinois_B1024Rutgers7RoadWin1720B102747
10-15-2016Vanderbilt_SEC17Georgia16RoadWin17SEC39.346.3
10-15-2016New Mexico_MWC45Air Force40NeutWin57MWC39.346.3
10-14-2016Louisville_ACC24Duke14HomeWin107ACC3946
10-14-2016Brigham Young_IND28Mississippi St21HomeWin77SEC37.344.3
10-15-2016South Florida_Amer42Connecticut27HomeWin1512Amer32.344.3
10-15-2016Western Kentucky_CUSA44Middle Tennessee St43RoadWin17CUSA36.743.7
10-15-2016Georgia Tech_ACC35Georgia Southern24HomeWin118SUN35.543.5
10-15-2016Colorado St_MWC23Boise St28RoadLoss-5-7MWC50.443.4
10-15-2016Army_IND62Lafayette7HomeWin5538fcs5.243.2
10-15-2016Indiana_B1022Nebraska27HomeLoss-5-8B1050.842.8
10-15-2016Utah_P1219Oregon St14RoadWin58P1233.641.6
10-15-2016Boise St_MWC28Colorado St23HomeWin57MWC34.141.1
10-15-2016Idaho_SUN55New Mexico St23HomeWin3226.5SUN14.440.9
10-15-2016Eastern Michigan_MAC27Ohio U.20RoadWin710MAC30.640.6
10-15-2016Iowa_B1049Purdue35RoadWin1417B1023.440.4
10-15-2016Mississippi_SEC30Arkansas34RoadLoss-4-7SEC47.340.3
10-15-2016Bowling Green_MAC35Toledo42RoadLoss-7-7MAC4639
10-15-2016Central Michigan_MAC34Northern Illinois28RoadWin69MAC29.938.9
10-14-2016Mississippi St_SEC21Brigham Young28RoadLoss-7-7IND45.938.9
10-15-2016Troy_SUN31Georgia St21HomeWin107SUN31.838.8
10-15-2016Notre Dame_IND10Stanford17HomeLoss-7-10P1248.738.7
10-15-2016Miami FL_ACC13North Carolina20HomeLoss-7-10ACC47.937.9
10-15-2016Connecticut_Amer27South Florida42RoadLoss-15-12Amer49.537.5
10-15-2016Georgia St_SUN21Troy31RoadLoss-10-7SUN44.237.2
10-14-2016San Diego St_MWC17Fresno St3RoadWin1417MWC19.836.8
10-15-2016UNLV_MWC41Hawai`i38RoadWin37MWC29.536.5
10-15-2016Tennessee_SEC10Alabama49HomeLoss-39-33SEC69.536.5
10-15-2016Oregon St_P1214Utah19HomeLoss-5-8P1244.436.4
10-15-2016Georgia Southern_SUN24Georgia Tech35RoadLoss-11-8ACC44.436.4
10-15-2016Arkansas St_SUN17South Alabama7HomeWin107SUN2936
10-15-2016Central Florida_Amer25Temple26HomeLoss-1-7Amer42.335.3
10-14-2016Tulane_Amer14Memphis24HomeLoss-10-13Amer47.934.9
10-15-2016Miami OH_MAC18Kent St14HomeWin47MAC27.734.7
10-15-2016Kansas St_B1217Oklahoma38RoadLoss-21-18B1252.434.4
10-15-2016Arizona St_P1216Colorado40RoadLoss-24-21P1254.733.7
10-15-2016Middle Tennessee St_CUSA43Western Kentucky44HomeLoss-1-7CUSA39.532.5
10-15-2016Georgia_SEC16Vanderbilt17HomeLoss-1-7SEC37.530.5
10-15-2016Louisiana-Monroe_SUN40Texas St-San Marcos34HomeWin67SUN22.729.7
10-15-2016Toledo_MAC42Bowling Green35HomeWin77MAC21.428.4
10-15-2016Northern Illinois_MAC28Central Michigan34HomeLoss-6-9MAC3728
10-15-2016San José St_MWC14Nevada10HomeWin47MWC20.727.7
10-15-2016Virginia_ACC31Pittsburgh45HomeLoss-14-17ACC44.227.2
10-15-2016Missouri_SEC14Florida40RoadLoss-26-23SEC5027
10-09-2016UNC-Charlotte_CUSA28Florida Atlantic23RoadWin58CUSA1927
10-15-2016Purdue_B1035Iowa49HomeLoss-14-17B1043.426.4
10-15-2016Ball St_MAC31Buffalo21RoadWin1013MAC13.426.4
10-15-2016Marshall_CUSA27Florida Atlantic21HomeWin67CUSA1926
10-15-2016Texas-San Antonio_CUSA14Rice13RoadWin17CUSA18.825.8
10-15-2016Michigan St_B1040Northwestern54HomeLoss-14-17B1042.525.5
10-15-2016Virginia Tech_ACC17Syracuse31RoadLoss-14-11ACC36.325.3
10-15-2016Southern Miss_CUSA10LSU45RoadLoss-35-28SEC52.824.8
10-15-2016Texas Tech_B1217West Virginia48HomeLoss-31-29B1253.824.8
10-15-2016Florida Int'l_CUSA27UNC-Charlotte26RoadWin17CUSA17.324.3
10-15-2016Rice_CUSA13Texas-San Antonio14HomeLoss-1-7CUSA29.822.8
10-15-2016Air Force_MWC40New Mexico45NeutLoss-5-7MWC29.622.6
10-15-2016Hawai`i_MWC38UNLV41HomeLoss-3-7MWC29.422.4
10-14-2016Fresno St_MWC3San Diego St17HomeLoss-14-17MWC39.322.3
10-09-2016South Carolina_SEC14Georgia28HomeLoss-14-17SEC39.322.3
10-15-2016South Alabama_SUN7Arkansas St17RoadLoss-10-7SUN28.921.9
10-15-2016Akron_MAC0Western Michigan41HomeLoss-41-34MAC55.321.3
10-15-2016Iowa St_B126Texas27RoadLoss-21-18B1239.321.3
10-15-2016Arizona_P1214Southern Cal48HomeLoss-34-30.5P1251.521
10-15-2016Maryland_B1010Minnesota31HomeLoss-21-24B1044.320.3
10-15-2016Texas St-San Marcos_SUN34Louisiana-Monroe40RoadLoss-6-7SUN26.819.8
10-15-2016Buffalo_MAC21Ball St31HomeLoss-10-13MAC32.119.1
10-15-2016Ohio U._MAC20Eastern Michigan27HomeLoss-7-10MAC28.918.9
10-15-2016Kansas_B127Baylor49RoadLoss-42-31.5B1248.917.4
10-12-2016Louisiana-Lafayette_SUN0Appalachian St24HomeLoss-24-25.5SUN42.717.2
10-15-2016Florida Atlantic_CUSA21Marshall27RoadLoss-6-7CUSA22.915.9
10-15-2016Kent St_MAC14Miami OH18RoadLoss-4-7MAC22.415.4
10-15-2016Nevada_MWC10San José St14RoadLoss-4-7MWC20.213.2
10-15-2016Rutgers_B107Illinois24HomeLoss-17-20B1032.912.9
10-15-2016Massachusetts_IND28Louisiana Tech56NeutLoss-28-26CUSA37.811.8
10-15-2016UNC-Charlotte_CUSA26Florida Int'l27HomeLoss-1-7CUSA17.610.6
10-09-2016Florida Atlantic_CUSA23UNC-Charlotte28HomeLoss-5-8CUSA17.39.3
10-15-2016New Mexico St_SUN23Idaho55RoadLoss-32-26.5SUN27.71.2

And, let’s look at the updated season-to-date rankings. And while Clemson and Ohio State had skin-of-their-teeth, come-from-behind, overtime victories, both still have the inside track to make the playoffs. Here’s where things stand:

SEC: As usual, the East doesn’t look very good, while the West is dominant.  The top two teams statistically are Bama and A&M, and the Aggies travel to Alabama this weekend.  That projects as a matchup of two top-7 teams in the SRS, but Alabama is currently favored by 16.5 points! Alabama then has a bye before traveling to Baton Rouge.  Assuming Alabama beats Texas A&M this weekend, the Iron Bowl is the most likely game to trip up the Crimson Tide.

B10: Wisconsin gave both Michigan and Ohio State good fights, but ultimately lost to both.  Nebraska is undefeated but hasn’t beaten any teams of note.  The Wolverines and Buckeyes are good bets to run the table with Michigan State being terrible this year: that sets up a de facto play-in game for the playoffs, when the two meet in Columbus in late November.  If enough things break right, the loser might have an argument for making the playoffs, too.

ACC: Clemson, by virtue of beating Louisville earlier in the year, is in great shape in the Atlantic; as usual, the Coastal is just okay. The best thing for the conference would be for Clemson to run the table: the toughest matchup left for the Tigers is Florida State in two weeks. Even if Clemson loses that game, though, the Tigers would still be ahead of both Louisville (head-to-head) and FSU (conference record) and the frontrunner in the division.

B12: As suggested above, the best hope for this conference is West Virginia and/or Baylor continue to exceed expectations.  There are zero B12 teams in the top 15 of the SRS.

Pac-12: Washington looks like the class of the conference.  Games in Utah and against USC could be challenges, but the big matchup to watch is the Apple Cup. This year, the game is at Washington State, and the Cougars have jumped into the top 10 of the SRS despite starting the season with losses to FCS Eastern Washington and Boise State.

As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs.

RkTeamConfDivConf RkGMOVSOSSRSREC
1MichiganB10B10-East1628.843.372.16-0
2AlabamaSECSEC-West1725.943.569.57-0
3Ohio StateB10B10-East2628.140686-0
4ClemsonACCACC-Atl1718.443.6627-0
5WashingtonP12P12-North162833616-0
6LouisvilleACCACC-Atl2621.738.760.45-1
7Texas A&MSECSEC-West2618.242.260.36-0
8WisconsinB10B10-West369.24958.14-2
9AuburnSECSEC-West3612.144.756.74-2
10Washington StP12P12-North2612.843.2564-2
11Western MichiganMACMAC-West1723.132.255.37-0
12Florida StACCACC-Atl376.148.9555-2
13ColoradoP12P12-South3714.84054.75-2
14MississippiSECSEC-West466.548.254.73-3
15HoustonAmerAmer-West1718.935.354.26-1
16West VirginiaB12B121512.441.453.85-0
17LSUSECSEC-West561042.852.84-2
18OklahomaB12B12265.846.652.44-2
19Miami FLACCACC-Coas4616.635.251.84-2
20Southern CalP12P12-South474.147.451.54-3
21Virginia TechACCACC-Coas5613.537.851.34-2
22NebraskaB10B10-West4614.83650.86-0
23Boise StMWCMWC-Mntn1615.135.350.46-0
24TennesseeSECSEC-East671.349.150.45-2
25FloridaSECSEC-East761634505-1
26South FloridaAmerAmer-East2715.53449.56-1
27North Carolina StACCACC-Atl6610.938.249.14-2
28BaylorB12B123622.126.9496-0
29StanfordP12P12-North56-1.750.448.74-2
30UCLAP12P12-South672.445.748.13-4
31North CarolinaACCACC-Coas774.243.747.95-2
32MemphisAmerAmer-West3615.732.247.95-1
33ArkansasSECSEC-West874.942.447.35-2
34Penn StateB10B10-East562.544.747.24-2
35Kansas StB12B12467.638.846.43-3
36ToledoMACMAC-West2618.127.9465-1
37Brigham YoungINDInd172.94345.94-3
38TCUB12B12568.836.445.24-2
39Oklahoma StB12B12668.636.4454-2
40NavyAmerAmer-West458.336.544.84-1
41UtahP12P12-South778.43644.46-1
42Georgia TechACCACC-Coas873.44144.44-3
43MinnesotaB10B10-West668.935.444.44-2
44Wake ForestACCACC-Atl975.139.244.35-2
45TroySUNSun1616.22844.25-1
46PittsburghACCACC-Coas1075.938.344.25-2
47IowaB10B10-West7710.133.343.45-2
48Central FloridaAmerAmer-East566.436.743.13-3
49Arizona StP12P12-South871.641.142.75-2
50Appalachian StSUNSun264.937.842.74-2
51NorthwesternB10B10-West861.241.342.53-3
52TempleAmerAmer-East677.33542.34-3
53OregonP12P12-North96-3.845.441.62-4
54CaliforniaP12P12-North1063.338.141.53-3
55IndianaB10B10-East96-0.541.340.83-3
56Texas TechB12B1276535.640.63-3
57TulsaAmerAmer-West764.535.640.14-2
58Western KentuckyCUSACUSA-East176.632.939.54-3
59San Diego StMWCMWC-West2611.32839.35-1
60GeorgiaSECSEC-East97-140.339.34-3
61TexasB12B12862.836.539.33-3
62Notre DameINDInd27138.339.32-5
63Air ForceMWCMWC-Mntn367.931.339.34-2
64DukeACCACC-Coas1170.138.8393-4
65ArmyINDInd3617.121.538.64-2
66WyomingMWCMWC-Mntn46533.338.34-2
67Louisiana TechCUSACUSA-West277.330.537.84-3
68MissouriSECSEC-East1061.835.937.62-4
69VanderbiltSECSEC-East117-2.339.837.53-4
70MarylandB10B10-East1068.828.537.34-2
71Mississippi StSECSEC-West126-2.940.237.32-4
72Central MichiganMACMAC-West373.633.4375-2
73ArizonaP12P12-South117-7.544.336.82-5
74Middle Tennessee StCUSACUSA-East3610.226.536.74-2
75SyracuseACCACC-Atl127-6.542.836.33-4
76TulaneAmerAmer-West862.233.735.83-3
77Georgia SouthernSUNSun365.430.135.53-3
78Utah StMWCMWC-Mntn56-2.337.134.82-4
79Michigan StB10B10-East116-6.641.334.82-4
80Old DominionCUSACUSA-East466.827.934.74-2
81South CarolinaSECSEC-East136-5.740.434.72-4
82AkronMACMAC-East47-0.534.934.44-3
83Colorado StMWCMWC-Mntn67-4.538.634.13-4
84East CarolinaAmerAmer-East96-6.240.334.12-4
85KentuckySECSEC-East146-5.839.633.73-3
86Oregon StP12P12-North126-6.339.933.62-4
87Boston CollegeACCACC-Atl136-1.134.533.43-3
88VirginiaACCACC-Coas146-437.133.12-4
89IllinoisB10B10-West126-2.635.532.92-4
90ConnecticutAmerAmer-East107-6.538.832.33-4
91Ball StMACMAC-West575.726.432.14-3
92Georgia StSUNSun46-8.139.831.81-5
93Southern MissCUSACUSA-West574.826.631.44-3
94CincinnatiAmerAmer-East116-2.333.331.13-3
95Ohio U.MACMAC-East67426.630.64-3
96Iowa StB12B1297-8.639.230.51-6
97Northern IllinoisMACMAC-West77-9.939.729.91-6
98Texas-San AntonioCUSACUSA-West66227.829.83-3
99SMUAmerAmer-West126-7.837.429.62-4
100New MexicoMWCMWC-Mntn760.62929.63-3
101Hawai`iMWCMWC-West87-4.634.229.53-4
102UNLVMWCMWC-West970.528.929.43-4
103South AlabamaSUNSun56-1.730.7293-3
104Eastern MichiganMACMAC-West873.425.528.95-2
105Arkansas StSUNSun66-10.839.728.92-4
106IdahoSUNSun77-7.435.227.74-3
107Kent StMACMAC-East97-4.33227.72-5
108RutgersB10B10-East137-16.243.2272-5
109Louisiana-MonroeSUNSun86-8.935.726.82-4
110Louisiana-LafayetteSUNSun96-8.331.923.72-4
111PurdueB10B10-West146-6.329.723.43-3
112MarshallCUSACUSA-East76-5.828.722.92-4
113North TexasCUSACUSA-West86-3.426.322.93-3
114Texas St-San MarcosSUNSun106-10.833.522.72-4
115Miami OHMACMAC-East107-1032.422.41-6
116MassachusettsINDInd47-1335.222.21-6
117KansasB12B12106-13.335.322.11-5
118Bowling GreenMACMAC-East117-19.440.821.41-6
119NevadaMWCMWC-West107-525.820.83-4
120San José StMWCMWC-West117-9.930.220.32-5
121Fresno StMWCMWC-West127-12.432.219.81-6
122Florida AtlanticCUSACUSA-East97-11.130.2191-6
123RiceCUSACUSA-West106-16.335.218.80-6
124Florida Int'lCUSACUSA-East117-9.627.217.63-4
125UNC-CharlotteCUSACUSA-East127-12.429.817.32-5
126New Mexico StSUNSun116-13.828.214.42-4
127BuffaloMACMAC-East126-15.829.213.41-5
128UTEPCUSACUSA-West136-19.329.810.51-5

As for the non-power 5 teams?

  • Houston may be very good — the Cougars beat Oklahoma, and have built on last year’s success — but the loss to the United States Navy likely ends any playoff hope for the team. A November 17th game against Louisville should be great, even if it may not be as big of a game for both teams as they hoped a month ago.
  • Western Michigan isn’t going to have much of a schedule to boast about, so any playoff talk is probably a pipe dream.  Toledo is 36th in the SRS, and no other MAC team is in the top 70.  Out of conference, the Broncos beat Northwestern and Illinois, but those are not signature wins.
  • Boise State beat WAZZOU (a win that’s looking better and better each week), and is undefeated, but the SRS is down on the Broncos.  A game against BYU on Thursday should be good, but that’s the best opponent left on the Broncos schedule.

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

  • After watching the BYU/Mississippi State and Clemson/NC State games, I wonder how the ratings would change if you removed the OT period from the ratings and just considered the score after regulation (i.e., a tie). It just seems that a touchdown margin is not indicative of how those games actually played out. Not sure how easy that would be for you to calculate. Perhaps an offseason project? Just curious if that would make the ratings more accurate when predicting things going forward.