Week Five (2015) College Football SRS Ratings: The SRS Is Back!

Last year, I introduced the first edition of the College Football SRS Ratings after five weeks.  And while it’s too early to put too much weight on these ratings, they help to at least begin framing the discussion of which are the most impressive teams in college football.  As a reminder, here is the methodology:

1) For each game not played at a neutral site, 3 points are given to the road team. After that adjustment, all wins and losses of between 7 and 24 points are recorded exactly as such. This means that a 24-10 road win goes down as +17 for the road team, -17 for the home team.

2) With one exception, wins of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7-point wins and losses of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7 point losses. So a 4-point home win goes down as +7 (and not a 1) and a 1-point home loss is a -7 (and not a -4). The one exception is that road losses of 3 or fewer (and home wins of 3 or fewer) are graded as ties. So a 21-20 home victory goes down as a 0 for both teams.

3) Wins/Losses of more than 24 points are scored as the average between the actual number and 24. This is to avoid giving undue credit to teams that run up the score. So a 75-point home win goes down as a 48-point win.

Once we have a rating for each team in each game, we then adjust each result for strength of schedule. This is an iterative process, where we adjust the ratings hundreds of times (to adjust for SOS, you have to adjust for the SOS of each opponent, and the SOS of each opponent’s opponent, and so on.) in Excel. Then we produce final ratings, where the SRS rating is the sum of the Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule in every week.

After five weeks, what are the results? As usual, the table is fully searchable (type “-0” for example, to see a list of undefeated teams, SEC to see all SEC teams, or ACC-Coas if you really want to see how the ACC Coastal is doing). Right now, the number one team is Alabama.  Despite the Crimson Tide already having one loss, Bama has an average (adjusted) Margin of Victory of 17.6 points per game against an average opponent that is 39.9 points better than average (average includes all football teams at all levels, so all FBS teams will have a positive grade). Below are the ratings for all 128 FBS teams.

As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs.

RkTeamConfConf RkDivGMOVSOSSRSREC
1AlabamaSEC1SEC-West517.639.957.54-1
2OklahomaB121B12416.940.257.14-0
3MichiganB101B10-East517.838.856.64-1
4Southern CalP121P12-South421.333.754.93-1
5NavyAmer1Amer-West420.633.854.44-0
6BaylorB122B12430.523.453.94-0
7UtahP122P12-South418.135.453.54-0
8StanfordP123P12-North515.537.953.44-1
9West VirginiaB123B12416.636.252.83-1
10ClemsonACC1ACC-Atl415.835.751.54-0
11Ohio StateB102B10-East518.132.450.55-0
12FloridaSEC2SEC-East514.835.550.35-0
13MississippiSEC3SEC-West515.234.649.84-1
14NorthwesternB103B10-West516.233.649.85-0
15Texas A&MSEC4SEC-West515.833.749.55-0
16Notre DameInd1Ind-West514.634.549.14-1
17PittsburghACC2ACC-Coas48.539.848.33-1
18Boise StMWC1MWC-Mntn520.22848.24-1
19IowaB104B10-West514.333.7485-0
20North CarolinaACC3ACC-Coas516.930.747.64-1
21HoustonAmer2Amer-West420.426.847.24-0
22Kansas StB124B12415.431.847.23-1
23UCLAP124P12-South510.836.2474-1
24ToledoMAC1MAC-West414.132.846.94-0
25GeorgiaSEC5SEC-East515.930.946.84-1
26TennesseeSEC6SEC-East58.538.246.72-3
27LSUSEC7SEC-West41531.246.24-0
28Brigham YoungInd2Ind-West50.845.346.13-2
29Florida StACC4ACC-Atl419.326.345.64-0
30WisconsinB105B10-West512.23345.23-2
31TCUB125B12521.223.544.75-0
32North Carolina StACC5ACC-Atl521.323.244.54-1
33Oklahoma StB126B1251628445-0
34Georgia TechACC6ACC-Coas510.43343.42-3
35LouisvilleACC7ACC-Atl54.138.842.92-3
36Western KentuckyCUSA1CUSA-East514.328.642.94-1
37DukeACC8ACC-Coas513.129.742.84-1
38CaliforniaP125P12-North517.524.842.35-0
39Virginia TechACC9ACC-Coas54.436.941.32-3
40IllinoisB106B10-West5833.241.24-1
41WashingtonP126P12-North49.331.841.12-2
42Michigan StB107B10-East58.832.2415-0
43East CarolinaAmer3Amer-East52.538.440.93-2
44Mississippi StSEC8SEC-West51030.540.53-2
45Georgia SouthernSun1Sun513.426.539.94-1
47Louisiana TechCUSA2CUSA-West511.82839.83-2
48TempleAmer4Amer-East415.623.939.54-0
49Iowa StB127B1244.833.838.52-2
50ArkansasSEC9SEC-West51.436.938.32-3
51IndianaB109B10-East52.236.138.34-1
52MemphisAmer5Amer-West518.419.938.35-0
53Air ForceMWC2MWC-Mntn46.631.4382-2
54Arizona StP127P12-South50.337.237.53-2
55MissouriSEC10SEC-East5829.137.14-1
56Texas TechB128B1255.431.336.73-2
57Miami FLACC10ACC-Coas412.623.836.43-1
58Bowling GreenMAC2MAC-East51.934.536.43-2
59Middle Tennessee StCUSA3CUSA-East59.526.435.92-3
60OregonP128P12-North55.730.235.93-2
61Penn StateB1010B10-East57.628.335.94-1
62AuburnSEC11SEC-West5-1.436.535.13-2
63ConnecticutAmer6Amer-East5-2.637.735.12-3
64ArizonaP129P12-South53.831.2353-2
65KentuckySEC12SEC-East5430.934.94-1
66SyracuseACC11ACC-Atl47.827.134.83-1
67Northern IllinoisMAC3MAC-West53.830.934.72-3
68VanderbiltSEC13SEC-East50.533.834.32-3
69Ohio U.MAC4MAC-East510.623.734.34-1
70Utah StMWC3MWC-Mntn4-1.535.433.92-2
71Oregon StP1210P12-North4-4.638.333.62-2
72Wake ForestACC12ACC-Atl51.13233.12-3
73TulsaAmer7Amer-West4-1.534.5332-2
74UNLVMWC4MWC-West5032.832.82-3
75Central MichiganMAC5MAC-West5-1.233.532.32-3
76Boston CollegeACC13ACC-Atl59.92231.93-2
77South CarolinaSEC14SEC-East5-4.736.531.82-3
78San José StMWC5MWC-West51.72930.72-3
79BuffaloMAC6MAC-East54.825.2302-3
80VirginiaACC14ACC-Coas4-13.143.129.91-3
81CincinnatiAmer8Amer-East55.724.129.83-2
82PurdueB1011B10-West5-4.633.929.31-4
83MarshallCUSA4CUSA-East511.117.828.94-1
84MinnesotaB1012B10-West5-5.233.928.73-2
85AkronMAC7MAC-East5-0.128.828.72-3
86Appalachian StSun2Sun415.513.228.73-1
87MarylandB1013B10-East5-8.336.928.62-3
88ArmyInd3Ind-West5-0.729.328.61-4
89Southern MissCUSA5CUSA-West58.519.828.33-2
90Ball StMAC8MAC-West5-5.633.327.72-3
92TexasB129B125-12.639.6271-4
93Arkansas StSun3Sun5-3.530.426.92-3
94Western MichiganMAC9MAC-West4-8.934.625.81-3
96Florida Int'lCUSA6CUSA-East50.824.2252-3
97TroySun4Sun4-7.832.324.51-3
98Washington StP1212P12-North4122.623.62-2
100SMUAmer9Amer-West5-13.135.722.61-4
101Louisiana-MonroeSun5Sun4-11.433.822.41-3
102Hawai`iMWC8MWC-West5-13.635.922.32-3
103RutgersB1014B10-East44.11822.12-2
104South FloridaAmer10Amer-East4-1.923.721.81-3
105San Diego StMWC9MWC-West5-1.823.221.42-3
106MassachusettsMAC10MAC-East4-13.935.121.21-3
107Texas-San AntonioCUSA7CUSA-West5-11.430.819.41-4
108South AlabamaSun6Sun5-8.527.619.13-2
109Texas St-San MarcosSun7Sun4-1129.918.91-3
110Florida AtlanticCUSA8CUSA-East4-8.42718.71-3
111TulaneAmer11Amer-West4-7.425.718.32-2
112Kent StMAC11MAC-East5-2.320.518.22-3
113RiceCUSA9CUSA-West5-6.724.7182-3
114IdahoSun8Sun5-18.435.617.21-4
115Central FloridaAmer12Amer-East5-1228.816.80-5
116Louisiana-LafayetteSun9Sun4-824.216.21-3
117KansasB1210B124-17.132.615.50-4
118New MexicoMWC10MWC-Mntn54.111.315.43-2
119Fresno StMWC11MWC-West5-15.330.715.41-4
120Eastern MichiganMAC12MAC-West5-8.523.314.81-4
121Miami OHMAC13MAC-East5-13.82713.21-4
122Old DominionCUSA10CUSA-East5-12.522.710.22-3
123UNC-CharlotteCUSA11CUSA-East5-11.120.29.12-3
124Georgia StSun10Sun4-9.517.47.91-3
125North TexasCUSA12CUSA-West4-23.429.25.80-4
126New Mexico StSun11Sun4-13.919.65.80-4
127UTEPCUSA13CUSA-West5-14.219.45.22-3
128WyomingMWC12MWC-Mntn5-15.619.84.20-5
• Okay, it’s no surprise to see Alabama or Oklahoma at the top. These blue bloods of college football both have played very well this year, and have great points for/points allowed ratios despite difficult schedules. But what about Michigan at #3? Yes, it’s very early, but the Wolverines have outscored opponents 122-14 over the last four games. The one loss came on the road in week 1 to Utah, who ranks #7 in these ratings, by just 7 points.
• How about Navy checking in at #5?? Navy has beaten East Carolina, Air Force, and UCONN by the combined scores of 106-50. No, it’s not reasonable to expect the Midshipmen to keep this up, but so far, it’s been a great year for Navy.
• Remember, the SRS only looks at points scored, points allowed, game location, and schedule strength. So how come Michigan is ahead of Utah? Well, Utah obviously recorded huge scores in the blowout win over Oregon and in the victory against Michigan. But the Utes beat #70 Utah State, at home, by just 10 points, while a 21-point victory against #119 Fresno State also lowers these ratings. Michigan’s blowouts are carrying the day right now, while Utah’s schedule strength is hurting them. But that will change as the Utes go through the Pac-12 gauntlet.

Finally, here are the single-game SRS ratings for each FBS team in week 5. Obviously the big wins by Alabama and Florida top the charts.

Tm_ConfPFOppPAH/RW/LDiffMOVOpp_ConfSOSSRS
Florida_SEC38Mississippi10HomeWin2824.5SEC49.774.2
Oklahoma_B1244West Virginia24HomeWin2017B1252.769.7
Stanford_P1255Arizona17HomeWin3829.5P1234.964.4
Baylor_B1263Texas Tech35NeutWin2826B1236.662.6
Boise St_MWC55Hawai`i0HomeWin5538MWC22.260.2
TCU_B1250Texas7HomeWin4332B1226.958.9
Navy_Amer33Air Force11HomeWin2219MWC37.956.9
Northwestern_B1027Minnesota0HomeWin2724B1028.652.6
Texas A&M_SEC30Mississippi St17HomeWin1310SEC40.450.4
Clemson_ACC24Notre Dame22HomeWin20Ind4949
Brigham Young_Ind30Connecticut13HomeWin1714Amer3549
Oklahoma St_B1236Kansas St34HomeWin20B1247.147.1
Cincinnati_Amer34Miami FL23HomeWin118ACC36.344.3
Missouri_SEC24South Carolina10HomeWin1411SEC31.842.8
Central Michigan_MAC29Northern Illinois19HomeWin107MAC34.641.6
Auburn_SEC35San José St21HomeWin1411MWC30.641.6
Virginia Tech_ACC13Pittsburgh17HomeLoss-4-7ACC48.241.2
Louisiana Tech_CUSA43Louisiana-Lafayette14HomeWin2925Sun16.141.1
Wisconsin_B106Iowa10HomeLoss-4-7B1047.940.9
Indiana_B1027Ohio State34HomeLoss-7-10B1050.440.4
Georgia Tech_ACC31North Carolina38HomeLoss-7-10ACC47.537.5
Iowa St_B1238Kansas13HomeWin2522B1215.437.4
Penn State_B1020Army14HomeWin67Ind28.535.5
Wake Forest_ACC16Florida St24HomeLoss-8-11ACC45.534.5
LSU_SEC44Eastern Michigan22HomeWin2219MAC14.733.7
Southern Miss_CUSA49North Texas14HomeWin3528CUSA5.733.7
North Carolina St_ACC13Louisville20HomeLoss-7-10ACC42.932.9
Massachusetts_MAC24Florida Int'l14HomeWin107CUSA24.931.9
Duke_ACC9Boston College7HomeWin20ACC31.831.8
Tennessee_SEC20Arkansas24HomeLoss-4-7SEC38.231.2
California_P1234Washington St28HomeWin67P1223.630.6
Tulsa_Amer24Houston38HomeLoss-14-17Amer47.130.1
Georgia_SEC10Alabama38HomeLoss-28-27.5SEC57.530
Ball St_MAC10Toledo24HomeLoss-14-17MAC46.829.8
Michigan St_B1024Purdue21HomeWin30B1029.329.3
Maryland_B100Michigan28HomeLoss-28-27.5B1056.629.1
South Florida_Amer17Memphis24HomeLoss-7-10Amer38.228.2
Arkansas St_Sun49Idaho35HomeWin1411Sun17.128.1
Texas Tech_B1235Baylor63NeutLoss-28-26B1253.827.8
Tulane_Amer45Central Florida31HomeWin1411Amer16.727.7
Buffalo_MAC22Bowling Green28HomeLoss-6-9MAC36.327.3
Middle Tennessee St_CUSA13Vanderbilt17HomeLoss-4-7SEC34.227.2
Akron_MAC12Ohio U.14HomeLoss-2-7MAC34.227.2
Marshall_CUSA27Old Dominion7HomeWin2017CUSA10.227.2
Kentucky_SEC3427HomeWin77fcs19.426.4
San Diego St_MWC21Fresno St7HomeWin1411MWC15.326.3
Kent St_MAC20Miami OH14HomeWin67MAC13.120.1
UCLA_P1223Arizona St38HomeLoss-15-18P1237.419.4
Appalachian St_Sun31Wyoming13HomeWin1815MWC4.219.2
Louisiana-Monroe_Sun31Georgia Southern51HomeLoss-20-23Sun39.816.8
SMU_Amer23East Carolina49HomeLoss-26-26.5Amer40.814.3
New Mexico_MWC38New Mexico St29HomeWin97Sun5.712.7