Coaches of two of the top 3 teams in college football… again.
Meet the new boss, Nick Saban as always.
The Golden Nugget released the point spreads for 100 games this season, and Johnny Detroit was kind enough to pass along that data for purposes of this post. With only data for 100 games, how am I able to conclude that Vegas views Alabama as the best team (or, at least, one of the top 2 teams) in college football? Consider:
- Alabama is a 6-point road favorite at Ole Miss this year. That is the only game this year (of the seven we have lines for) where Mississippi is an underdog, and the Rebels are an 8-point home favorite against Auburn and a 4.5-point home favorite against Georgia. The Rebels finished 10th in the polls last year and are projected to be the 10th-best team this year, so this line says all you need to know about Alabama.
- Against Auburn, Alabama is a 15-point home favorite (that’s a touchdown better than Ole Miss is against Auburn). The Tigers were not great last year, but are still projected at #20 this year.
- In Arkansas, the Crimson Tide are 8.5-point favorites. In the other 3 home games for Arkansas, the Razorbacks are 7.5-point dogs to LSU (the #3 team by this methodology), 1-point underdogs to Mississippi, and a 2.5-point favorite against Florida.
- Alabama is a 15-point favorite at home against Mississippi State and a 14-point home favorite against Texas A&M. Both of those teams are projected to be, by Vegas, top 30 teams this year.
- In Tennessee, Alabama is a 1-point dog, but the Vols are projected as the 6th best team this year! Tennessee is a pick’em in Georgia, a 5-point favorite in College Station, an 11-point favorite at home against Florida, and a 13-point favorite in a neutral site game against Virginia Tech.
- LSU is projected to be the 3rd best team in college football. The Tigers are an 11-point favorite at home against MSU, a 9.5-point home favorite against Ole Miss, 7.5-point road favorites in Florida and Arkansas, a touchdown favorite in Auburn, a 6-point favorite in College Station, and – only – a 2.5-point home favorite against Alabama.
You may be wondering, how do we know how good Alabama’s opponents are? Well, we can imply the ratings of each team in college football based on these points spreads. I explained how to do this last year, but here is the refresher:
The system is pretty simple: I took the point spread for each game and turned it into a margin of victory, after assigning 3 points to the road team in each game. Do this for every game, iterate the results hundreds of times ala the Simple Rating System, and you end up with a set of power ratings.
Two quick notes about the rankings.
1) These are not intended to be surprise. The methodology may be somewhat complicated, but all these ratings are intended to do is quantify public perception.
2) These are not “my” ratings. These are simply the implied ratings based on the Vegas (or, more specifically, the Golden Nugget) points spreads; nothing more, nothing less.
Below are the ratings for 51 college football teams. In the table below, I’ve included the number of games for which we have point spreads for each team on the far left. The “MOV” column shows the home field-adjusted average margin of victory for that team, the “SOS” column shows the average rating of each team’s opponents (for only the number of games for which we have lines), and the “SRS” column shows the school’s implied SRS rating. As you can see, Alabama is projected to be the strongest team in college football, but Oklahoma is just a hair behind:
| RK | Team | G | MOV | SOS | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 7 | 8.3 | 1.6 | 9.9 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 5 | 9.1 | 0.5 | 9.6 |
| 3 | LSU | 7 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 8.3 |
| 4 | Clemson | 4 | 11.3 | -3.7 | 7.6 |
| 5 | Florida St. | 6 | 8.6 | -1.1 | 7.4 |
| 6 | Tennessee | 5 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 6.9 |
| 7 | Ohio St. | 5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 5.9 |
| 8 | Michigan | 4 | 5.8 | -0.5 | 5.2 |
| 9 | Oklahoma St. | 3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| 11 | Stanford | 7 | 3.9 | -1.5 | 2.3 |
| 12 | Georgia | 5 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 2.2 |
| 13 | Washington | 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| 14 | Oregon | 8 | 5.5 | -4.0 | 1.5 |
| 15 | Louisville | 2 | -2.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| 16 | Houston | 3 | 4.3 | -3.4 | 0.9 |
| 17 | USC | 9 | 3.3 | -2.5 | 0.8 |
| 18 | Notre Dame | 7 | 4.8 | -4.4 | 0.4 |
| 19 | UCLA | 5 | 3.1 | -3.1 | 0.0 |
| 20 | Auburn | 7 | -3.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 |
| 21 | N. Carolina | 1 | -8.5 | 7.4 | -1.1 |
| 22 | Florida | 5 | -5.9 | 4.6 | -1.3 |
| 23 | TCU | 4 | -1.8 | 0.5 | -1.3 |
| 24 | Texas A&M | 5 | -6.7 | 5.3 | -1.4 |
| 25 | Nebraska | 3 | -3.2 | 1.5 | -1.6 |
| 26 | Arkansas | 7 | -3.9 | 2.1 | -1.8 |
| 27 | Boise St. | 1 | 3.5 | -5.5 | -2.0 |
| 28 | Mississippi St. | 6 | -2.4 | 0.1 | -2.3 |
| 29 | Texas Tech | 1 | 1.0 | -3.3 | -2.3 |
| 30 | Michigan St. | 4 | -4.5 | 2.1 | -2.4 |
| 31 | West Virginia | 4 | -4.3 | 1.6 | -2.6 |
| 32 | Iowa | 2 | -4.5 | 1.8 | -2.7 |
| 33 | Wisconsin | 3 | -5.8 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| 34 | Texas | 4 | -5.8 | 2.4 | -3.3 |
| 35 | Miami (Fl) | 3 | -4.8 | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 36 | Cincinnati | 1 | -5.0 | 0.9 | -4.1 |
| 37 | Pittsburgh | 1 | -12.5 | 7.6 | -4.9 |
| 38 | Virginia Tech | 3 | -6.2 | 1.1 | -5.1 |
| 39 | BYU | 5 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -5.5 |
| 40 | Arizona | 3 | -4.3 | -1.3 | -5.6 |
| 41 | Utah | 5 | -3.9 | -2.0 | -5.9 |
| 42 | Arizona St. | 5 | -5.2 | -1.9 | -7.1 |
| 43 | Memphis | 1 | -8.5 | 0.9 | -7.6 |
| 44 | Georgia Tech | 2 | -12.8 | 4.9 | -7.9 |
| 45 | South Carolina | 2 | -12.0 | 2.6 | -9.4 |
| 46 | N. Carolina St. | 2 | -13.5 | 3.9 | -9.6 |
| 47 | California | 3 | -11.5 | 1.5 | -10.0 |
| 48 | Vanderbilt | 1 | -14.0 | 2.4 | -11.6 |
| 49 | Virginia | 1 | -14.5 | 1.5 | -13.0 |
| 50 | Navy | 2 | -0.5 | -12.6 | -13.1 |
| 51 | Army | 1 | -12.5 | -13.1 | -25.6 |
In the table below, I’ve listed each game. It’s fully searchable and sortable; for example, you can type “Oklahoma” in the search box to see all Sooners games this year (although you will also get all OSU games, too). Here’s how to read the Oklahoma-Texas line. Oklahoma plays Texas in a neutral site game in Dallas. Oklahoma is a 12-point favorite, which gives the Sooners a 12-point HFA-adjusted margin of victory. Since Texas has a rating of -3.3, that means OU has an SRS rating of +9.4 for this game. Do this for every game for each team, and you get the ratings in the table above.
| RK | ROAD | H/R | N SITE | HOME | LINE | HFA-MOV | SOS | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALABAMA | R | OLE MISS | -6 | 9 | 2.4 | 11.4 | |
| 2 | ALABAMA | H | AUBURN | -15 | 12 | -1.0 | 11.0 | |
| 3 | OKLAHOMA | H | OKLAHOMA ST. | -9.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 10.2 | |
| 4 | OKLAHOMA | R | WEST VIRGINIA | -9.5 | 12.5 | -2.6 | 9.9 | |
| 5 | ALABAMA | R | ARKANSAS | -8.5 | 11.5 | -1.8 | 9.7 | |
| 6 | OKLAHOMA | R | TCU | -8 | 11 | -1.3 | 9.7 | |
| 7 | ALABAMA | H | MISSISSIPPI ST. | -15 | 12 | -2.3 | 9.7 | |
| 8 | ALABAMA | H | TEXAS A&M | -14 | 11 | -1.4 | 9.6 | |
| 9 | OKLAHOMA | H | OHIO ST. | -6.5 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 9.4 | |
| 10 | LSU | H | ALABAMA | -2.5 | -0.5 | 9.9 | 9.4 | |
| 11 | LSU | R | FLORIDA | -7.5 | 10.5 | -1.3 | 9.2 | |
| 12 | LSU | R | AUBURN | -7 | 10 | -1.0 | 9.0 | |
| 13 | LSU | H | OLE MISS | -9.5 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 8.9 | |
| 14 | ALABAMA | R | TENNESSEE | +1 | 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | |
| 15 | ALABAMA | R | LSU | +2.5 | 0.5 | 8.3 | 8.8 | |
| 16 | LSU | R | ARKANSAS | -7.5 | 10.5 | -1.8 | 8.7 | |
| 17 | OKLAHOMA | N | DALLAS | TEXAS | -12 | 12 | -3.3 | 8.7 |
| 18 | FLORIDA ST. | R | N. CAROLINA ST. | -15 | 18 | -9.6 | 8.4 | |
| 19 | CLEMSON | H | SOUTH CAROLINA | -20.5 | 17.5 | -9.4 | 8.1 | |
| 20 | FLORIDA ST. | H | CLEMSON | -3.5 | 0.5 | 7.6 | 8.1 | |
| 21 | TENNESSEE | N | BRISTOL TN | VIRGINIA TECH | -13 | 13 | -5.1 | 7.9 |
| 22 | TENNESSEE | H | ALABAMA | -1 | -2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | |
| 23 | CLEMSON | R | GEORGIA TECH | -12.5 | 15.5 | -7.9 | 7.6 | |
| 24 | LSU | R | TEXAS A&M | -6 | 9 | -1.4 | 7.6 | |
| 25 | CLEMSON | H | PITTSBURGH | -15.5 | 12.5 | -4.9 | 7.6 | |
| 26 | FLORIDA ST. | H | N. CAROLINA | -11.5 | 8.5 | -1.1 | 7.4 | |
| 27 | FLORIDA ST. | R | LOUISVILLE | -3 | 6 | 1.4 | 7.4 | |
| 28 | FLORIDA ST. | H | FLORIDA | -11.5 | 8.5 | -1.3 | 7.2 | |
| 29 | CLEMSON | R | FLORIDA ST. | +3.5 | -0.5 | 7.4 | 6.9 | |
| 30 | TENNESSEE | H | FLORIDA | -11 | 8 | -1.3 | 6.7 | |
| 31 | TENNESSEE | R | TEXAS A&M | -5 | 8 | -1.4 | 6.6 | |
| 32 | OHIO ST. | H | NEBRASKA | -11 | 8 | -1.6 | 6.4 | |
| 33 | FLORIDA ST. | R | MIAMI (FL) | -7 | 10 | -3.9 | 6.1 | |
| 34 | OHIO ST. | R | WISCONSIN | -6 | 9 | -2.9 | 6.1 | |
| 35 | OHIO ST. | R | OKLAHOMA | +6.5 | -3.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | |
| 36 | MICHIGAN | R | OHIO ST. | +3 | 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| 37 | LSU | H | MISSISSIPPI ST. | -11 | 8 | -2.3 | 5.7 | |
| 38 | OHIO ST. | R | MICHIGAN ST. | -5 | 8 | -2.4 | 5.6 | |
| 39 | MICHIGAN | H | WISCONSIN | -11.5 | 8.5 | -2.9 | 5.6 | |
| 40 | OHIO ST. | H | MICHIGAN | -3 | 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |
| 41 | TENNESSEE | R | GEORGIA | Pk | 3 | 2.2 | 5.2 | |
| 42 | MICHIGAN | R | IOWA | -4.5 | 7.5 | -2.7 | 4.8 | |
| 43 | MICHIGAN | R | MICHIGAN ST. | -4 | 7 | -2.4 | 4.6 | |
| 44 | OKLAHOMA ST. | H | WEST VIRGINIA | -10 | 7 | -2.6 | 4.4 | |
| 45 | OLE MISS | H | AUBURN | -8 | 5 | -1.0 | 4.0 | |
| 46 | GEORGIA | H | TENNESSEE | Pk | -3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | |
| 47 | STANFORD | H | USC | -6 | 3 | 0.8 | 3.8 | |
| 48 | OLE MISS | H | GEORGIA | -4.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.7 | |
| 49 | OKLAHOMA ST. | H | TEXAS | -10 | 7 | -3.3 | 3.7 | |
| 50 | OKLAHOMA ST. | R | OKLAHOMA | +9.5 | -6.5 | 9.6 | 3.1 | |
| 51 | STANFORD | R | UCLA | Pk | 3 | 0.0 | 3.0 | |
| 52 | STANFORD | R | CALIFORNIA | -10 | 13 | -10.0 | 3.0 | |
| 53 | STANFORD | R | ARIZONA | -5.5 | 8.5 | -5.6 | 2.9 | |
| 54 | OREGON | H | STANFORD | -3.5 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | |
| 55 | GEORGIA | H | AUBURN | -6.5 | 3.5 | -1.0 | 2.5 | |
| 56 | WASHINGTON | R | OREGON | +2 | 1 | 1.5 | 2.5 | |
| 57 | OLE MISS | R | VANDERBILT | -11 | 14 | -11.6 | 2.4 | |
| 58 | USC | H | NOTRE DAME | -5 | 2 | 0.4 | 2.4 | |
| 59 | WASHINGTON | H | STANFORD | -3 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| 60 | NOTRE DAME | H | STANFORD | -3 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| 61 | OREGON | R | USC | +1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | |
| 62 | OLE MISS | R | ARKANSAS | -1 | 4 | -1.8 | 2.2 | |
| 63 | STANFORD | R | WASHINGTON | +3 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| 64 | GEORGIA | H | GEORGIA TECH | -13 | 10 | -7.9 | 2.1 | |
| 65 | OREGON | H | ARIZONA ST. | -12 | 9 | -7.1 | 1.9 | |
| 66 | OLE MISS | R | LSU | +9.5 | -6.5 | 8.3 | 1.8 | |
| 67 | WASHINGTON | H | USC | -4 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | |
| 68 | GEORGIA | N | JACKSONVILLE | FLORIDA | -3 | 3 | -1.3 | 1.7 |
| 69 | OLE MISS | R | TEXAS A&M | Pk | 3 | -1.4 | 1.6 | |
| 70 | USC | H | CALIFORNIA | -14.5 | 11.5 | -10.0 | 1.5 | |
| 71 | OREGON | H | VIRGINIA | -17.5 | 14.5 | -13.0 | 1.5 | |
| 72 | LOUISVILLE | H | FLORIDA ST. | +3 | -6 | 7.4 | 1.4 | |
| 73 | LOUISVILLE | R | HOUSTON | +2.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | |
| 74 | OREGON | R | NEBRASKA | Pk | 3 | -1.6 | 1.4 | |
| 75 | USC | R | WASHINGTON | +4 | -1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | |
| 76 | OREGON | H | WASHINGTON | -2 | -1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | |
| 77 | AUBURN | H | TEXAS A&M | -5.5 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 1.1 | |
| 78 | USC | R | UTAH | -4 | 7 | -5.9 | 1.1 | |
| 79 | UCLA | H | UTAH | -10 | 7 | -5.9 | 1.1 | |
| 80 | STANFORD | R | OREGON | +3.5 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | |
| 81 | HOUSTON | H | LOUISVILLE | -2.5 | -0.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | |
| 82 | HOUSTON | R | MEMPHIS | -5.5 | 8.5 | -7.6 | 0.9 | |
| 83 | HOUSTON | R | CINCINNATI | -2 | 5 | -4.1 | 0.9 | |
| 84 | USC | H | ARIZONA ST. | -11 | 8 | -7.1 | 0.9 | |
| 85 | GEORGIA | R | OLE MISS | +4.5 | -1.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | |
| 86 | OLE MISS | H | ALABAMA | +6 | -9 | 9.9 | 0.9 | |
| 87 | AUBURN | R | MISSISSIPPI ST. | Pk | 3 | -2.3 | 0.7 | |
| 88 | NOTRE DAME | H | MICHIGAN ST. | -6 | 3 | -2.4 | 0.6 | |
| 89 | NOTRE DAME | H | MIAMI (FL) | -7.5 | 4.5 | -3.9 | 0.6 | |
| 90 | OREGON | R | UTAH | -3.5 | 6.5 | -5.9 | 0.6 | |
| 91 | USC | R | UCLA | +2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | |
| 92 | NOTRE DAME | H | VIRGINIA TECH | -8.5 | 5.5 | -5.1 | 0.4 | |
| 93 | NOTRE DAME | N | JACKSONVILLE | NAVY | -13.5 | 13.5 | -13.1 | 0.4 |
| 94 | STANFORD | R | NOTRE DAME | +3 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| 95 | USC | R | ARIZONA | -3 | 6 | -5.6 | 0.4 | |
| 96 | MISSISSIPPI ST. | R | LSU | +11 | -8 | 8.3 | 0.3 | |
| 97 | UCLA | H | USC | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | |
| 98 | OREGON | R | CALIFORNIA | -7 | 10 | -10.0 | 0.0 | |
| 99 | USC | H | OREGON | -1.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | |
| 100 | UCLA | R | ARIZONA ST. | -4 | 7 | -7.1 | -0.1 | |
| 101 | TCU | R | TEXAS | Pk | 3 | -3.3 | -0.3 | |
| 102 | UCLA | R | BYU | -2 | 5 | -5.5 | -0.5 | |
| 103 | NOTRE DAME | R | N. CAROLINA ST. | -6 | 9 | -9.6 | -0.6 | |
| 104 | TEXAS A&M | H | OLE MISS | Pk | -3 | 2.4 | -0.6 | |
| 105 | TEXAS A&M | H | LSU | +6 | -9 | 8.3 | -0.7 | |
| 106 | USC | R | STANFORD | +6 | -3 | 2.3 | -0.7 | |
| 107 | UCLA | H | STANFORD | Pk | -3 | 2.3 | -0.7 | |
| 108 | TCU | H | ARKANSAS | -4 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.8 | |
| 109 | FLORIDA | N | JACKSONVILLE | GEORGIA | +3 | -3 | 2.2 | -0.8 |
| 110 | FLORIDA | R | FLORIDA ST. | +11.5 | -8.5 | 7.4 | -1.1 | |
| 111 | N. CAROLINA | R | FLORIDA ST. | +11.5 | -8.5 | 7.4 | -1.1 | |
| 112 | TEXAS A&M | R | ALABAMA | +14 | -11 | 9.9 | -1.1 | |
| 113 | FLORIDA | R | TENNESSEE | +11 | -8 | 6.9 | -1.1 | |
| 114 | TEXAS A&M | H | TENNESSEE | +5 | -8 | 6.9 | -1.1 | |
| 115 | NOTRE DAME | R | USC | +5 | -2 | 0.8 | -1.2 | |
| 116 | NEBRASKA | R | IOWA | +1.5 | 1.5 | -2.7 | -1.2 | |
| 117 | FLORIDA | R | ARKANSAS | +2.5 | 0.5 | -1.8 | -1.3 | |
| 118 | AUBURN | H | ARKANSAS | -3.5 | 0.5 | -1.8 | -1.3 | |
| 119 | AUBURN | R | GEORGIA | +6.5 | -3.5 | 2.2 | -1.3 | |
| 120 | WEST VIRGINIA | H | TCU | -3 | 0 | -1.3 | -1.3 | |
| 121 | ARKANSAS | R | MISSISSIPPI ST. | +2 | 1 | -2.3 | -1.3 | |
| 122 | TCU | H | OKLAHOMA | +8 | -11 | 9.6 | -1.4 | |
| 123 | ARKANSAS | R | AUBURN | +3.5 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | |
| 124 | NEBRASKA | H | OREGON | Pk | -3 | 1.5 | -1.5 | |
| 125 | ARKANSAS | H | OLE MISS | +1 | -4 | 2.4 | -1.6 | |
| 126 | ARKANSAS | H | ALABAMA | +8.5 | -11.5 | 9.9 | -1.6 | |
| 127 | AUBURN | H | LSU | +7 | -10 | 8.3 | -1.7 | |
| 128 | MICHIGAN ST. | H | MICHIGAN | +4 | -7 | 5.2 | -1.8 | |
| 129 | ARKANSAS | H | FLORIDA | -2.5 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -1.8 | |
| 130 | BOISE ST. | H | BYU | -6.5 | 3.5 | -5.5 | -2.0 | |
| 131 | NEBRASKA | R | OHIO ST. | +11 | -8 | 5.9 | -2.1 | |
| 132 | MICHIGAN ST. | H | OHIO ST. | +5 | -8 | 5.9 | -2.1 | |
| 133 | MISSISSIPPI ST. | R | ALABAMA | +15 | -12 | 9.9 | -2.1 | |
| 134 | AUBURN | R | ALABAMA | +15 | -12 | 9.9 | -2.1 | |
| 135 | ARKANSAS | H | LSU | +7.5 | -10.5 | 8.3 | -2.2 | |
| 136 | FLORIDA | H | LSU | +7.5 | -10.5 | 8.3 | -2.2 | |
| 137 | IOWA | H | MICHIGAN | +4.5 | -7.5 | 5.2 | -2.3 | |
| 138 | ARKANSAS | R | TCU | +4 | -1 | -1.3 | -2.3 | |
| 139 | TEXAS TECH | H | TEXAS | -4 | 1 | -3.3 | -2.3 | |
| 140 | WISCONSIN | R | MICHIGAN ST. | +3 | 0 | -2.4 | -2.4 | |
| 141 | TEXAS | N | DALLAS | OKLAHOMA | +12 | -12 | 9.6 | -2.4 |
| 142 | MISSISSIPPI ST. | R | BYU | Pk | 3 | -5.5 | -2.5 | |
| 143 | MIAMI (FL) | H | FLORIDA ST. | +7 | -10 | 7.4 | -2.6 | |
| 144 | TCU | R | WEST VIRGINIA | +3 | 0 | -2.6 | -2.6 | |
| 145 | AUBURN | R | OLE MISS | +8 | -5 | 2.4 | -2.6 | |
| 146 | MICHIGAN ST. | R | NOTRE DAME | +6 | -3 | 0.4 | -2.6 | |
| 147 | MISSISSIPPI ST. | H | ARKANSAS | -2 | -1 | -1.8 | -2.8 | |
| 148 | MISSISSIPPI ST. | H | SOUTH CAROLINA | -9.5 | 6.5 | -9.4 | -2.9 | |
| 149 | MICHIGAN ST. | H | WISCONSIN | -3 | 0 | -2.9 | -2.9 | |
| 150 | WEST VIRGINIA | H | OKLAHOMA | +9.5 | -12.5 | 9.6 | -2.9 | |
| 151 | WEST VIRGINIA | N | LANDOVER | BYU | -2.5 | 2.5 | -5.5 | -3.0 |
| 152 | IOWA | H | NEBRASKA | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -3.1 | |
| 153 | WISCONSIN | H | OHIO ST. | +6 | -9 | 5.9 | -3.1 | |
| 154 | WISCONSIN | R | MICHIGAN | +11.5 | -8.5 | 5.2 | -3.3 | |
| 155 | WEST VIRGINIA | R | OKLAHOMA ST. | +10 | -7 | 3.7 | -3.3 | |
| 156 | TEXAS | R | OKLAHOMA ST. | +10 | -7 | 3.7 | -3.3 | |
| 157 | TEXAS | R | TEXAS TECH | +4 | -1 | -2.3 | -3.3 | |
| 158 | TEXAS A&M | R | AUBURN | +5.5 | -2.5 | -1.0 | -3.5 | |
| 159 | VIRGINIA TECH | H | MIAMI (FL) | -3 | 0 | -3.9 | -3.9 | |
| 160 | MISSISSIPPI ST. | H | AUBURN | Pk | -3 | -1.0 | -4.0 | |
| 161 | CINCINNATI | H | HOUSTON | +2 | -5 | 0.9 | -4.1 | |
| 162 | MIAMI (FL) | R | NOTRE DAME | +7.5 | -4.5 | 0.4 | -4.1 | |
| 163 | TEXAS | H | TCU | Pk | -3 | -1.3 | -4.3 | |
| 164 | PITTSBURGH | R | CLEMSON | +15.5 | -12.5 | 7.6 | -4.9 | |
| 165 | UTAH | H | BYU | -3.5 | 0.5 | -5.5 | -5.0 | |
| 166 | BYU | H | UCLA | +2 | -5 | 0.0 | -5.0 | |
| 167 | UTAH | H | OREGON | +3.5 | -6.5 | 1.5 | -5.0 | |
| 168 | MIAMI (FL) | R | VIRGINIA TECH | +3 | 0 | -5.1 | -5.1 | |
| 169 | BYU | N | LANDOVER | WEST VIRGINIA | +2.5 | -2.5 | -2.6 | -5.1 |
| 170 | VIRGINIA TECH | R | NOTRE DAME | +8.5 | -5.5 | 0.4 | -5.1 | |
| 171 | ARIZONA | H | USC | +3 | -6 | 0.8 | -5.2 | |
| 172 | BYU | H | MISSISSIPPI ST. | Pk | -3 | -2.3 | -5.3 | |
| 173 | BYU | R | BOISE ST. | +6.5 | -3.5 | -2.0 | -5.5 | |
| 174 | ARIZONA | H | ARIZONA ST. | -4.5 | 1.5 | -7.1 | -5.6 | |
| 175 | VIRGINIA TECH | N | BRISTOL TN | TENNESSEE | +13 | -13 | 6.9 | -6.1 |
| 176 | ARIZONA | H | STANFORD | +5.5 | -8.5 | 2.3 | -6.2 | |
| 177 | UTAH | H | USC | +4 | -7 | 0.8 | -6.2 | |
| 178 | BYU | R | UTAH | +3.5 | -0.5 | -5.9 | -6.4 | |
| 179 | ARIZONA ST. | H | UTAH | -2.5 | -0.5 | -5.9 | -6.4 | |
| 180 | UTAH | R | ARIZONA ST. | +2.5 | 0.5 | -7.1 | -6.6 | |
| 181 | UTAH | R | UCLA | +10 | -7 | 0.0 | -7.0 | |
| 182 | ARIZONA ST. | H | UCLA | +4 | -7 | 0.0 | -7.0 | |
| 183 | ARIZONA ST. | R | ARIZONA | +4.5 | -1.5 | -5.6 | -7.1 | |
| 184 | ARIZONA ST. | R | USC | +11 | -8 | 0.8 | -7.2 | |
| 185 | ARIZONA ST. | R | OREGON | +12 | -9 | 1.5 | -7.5 | |
| 186 | MEMPHIS | H | HOUSTON | +5.5 | -8.5 | 0.9 | -7.6 | |
| 187 | GEORGIA TECH | R | GEORGIA | +13 | -10 | 2.2 | -7.8 | |
| 188 | GEORGIA TECH | H | CLEMSON | +12.5 | -15.5 | 7.6 | -7.9 | |
| 189 | CALIFORNIA | H | OREGON | +7 | -10 | 1.5 | -8.5 | |
| 190 | N. CAROLINA ST. | H | NOTRE DAME | +6 | -9 | 0.4 | -8.6 | |
| 191 | SOUTH CAROLINA | R | MISSISSIPPI ST. | +9.5 | -6.5 | -2.3 | -8.8 | |
| 192 | SOUTH CAROLINA | R | CLEMSON | +20.5 | -17.5 | 7.6 | -9.9 | |
| 193 | N. CAROLINA ST. | H | FLORIDA ST. | +15 | -18 | 7.4 | -10.6 | |
| 194 | CALIFORNIA | H | STANFORD | +10 | -13 | 2.3 | -10.7 | |
| 195 | CALIFORNIA | R | USC | +14.5 | -11.5 | 0.8 | -10.7 | |
| 196 | VANDERBILT | H | OLE MISS | +11 | -14 | 2.4 | -11.6 | |
| 197 | VIRGINIA | R | OREGON | +17.5 | -14.5 | 1.5 | -13.0 | |
| 198 | NAVY | N | BALTIMORE | ARMY | -12.5 | 12.5 | -25.6 | -13.1 |
| 199 | NAVY | N | JACKSONVILLE | NOTRE DAME | +13.5 | -13.5 | 0.4 | -13.1 |
| 200 | ARMY | N | BALTIMORE | NAVY | +12.5 | -12.5 | -13.1 | -25.6 |
The top five teams based on implied vegas ratings are, in order, Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, Florida State. In Phil Steele’s top 10 rankings, he has Alabama at 1, Oklahoma at 3, at 5, Clemson at 2, and FSU at 4; in other words, that’s the same top five, just in a different order. ESPN’s FPI’s top six teams are FSU-LSU-Oklahoma-Clemson-Tennessee-Alabama. That, of course, is the same top six as these implied ratings. Bill Connelly at SB Nation? His top five was, as of February, also Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, Florida State.
That makes me feel very confident in these ratings. And the beauty is, they go 51 teams deep. One of the more interesting teams to analyze is Houston, and they provide a good example of how these ratings “work” — and, in my opinion, why. Bill C. has Houston down at 53; ESPN has them only at 47, and Steele has them at 20. The Implied SRS has them at 16. Why is that?
Houston plays just three games with point spreads, and two of them are useless:
- Houston is a 5.5-point road favorite in Memphis. Unfortunately for our purposes, Memphis does not have another game in this sample.
- Houston is a 2-point road dog in Cincinnati. Unfortunately for our purposes, Cincinnati doesn’t have another game in this sample, either.
- At home against Louisville, Houston is a 2.5-point favorite. That might not sound good, but the SRS has Louisville at 16. Why is that? Well, Louisville has only one other game, but it’s at home against FSU and Louisville is just a 3-point dog. So, by the transitive property, Houston is only 6.5 points weaker than Florida State. Given that the Seminoles are a top-5 team, this is strong evidence that Houston is pretty good!
So yeah, Houston’s entire rating is driven by being just a half point worse than Louisville. But I think that’s okay: after all, the fact that Louisville is only 6 points worse than Florida State is all we need to know that Louisville is pretty darn good. Also of note: Louisville is in the top 20 in both the FPI and Bill’s ratings. And while “small sample size” is a reasonable criticism in lots of instances, I don’t think it’s applicable here, given that these are projections and not results.
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.