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Bud Dupree Ran The Top Weight-Adjusted 40 At 2015 Combine

Last year, I looked at various data from the NFL combine and tried to put the results from some of the drills in perspective. Let’s do that again with the 40-yard dash, with data courtesy of courtesy of NFLSavant.com.

The best-fit formula to project a 40-yard dash time, given a prospect’s weight, is:

Expected 40 Time = 3.433 + 0.00554 * Weight

Alvin “Bud” Dupree, an outside linebacker from Kentucky, weighed in at 269 pounds at the combine, giving him an expected 40 time of 4.92. But in Indianapolis, he ran the dash in just 4.56 seconds, meaning he exceeded expectations by an incredible 0.36 seconds. That was the top time of 2015, and would have been the second best in 2014 behind only to Jadeveon Clowney.

The full results from the Combine this year, below:

RkFirst LastPosCollegeWeightExp 40Act 40Diff
1Bud DupreeOLBKentucky2694.924.560.36
2Owamagbe OdighizuwaDEUCLA2674.914.620.29
3Darren WallerWRGeorgia Tech2384.754.460.29
4Dante Fowler Jr.OLBFlorida2614.884.60.28
5Kevin WhiteWRWest Virginia2154.624.350.27
6Vic BeasleyOLBClemson2464.84.530.27
7Chris ConleyWRGeorgia2134.614.350.26
8Danielle HunterDELSU2524.834.570.26
9Dorial Green-BeckhamWRMissouri2374.754.490.26
10MyCole PruittTESouthern Illinois2514.824.580.24
11Karlos WilliamsRBFlorida St.2304.714.480.23
12Stephone AnthonyILBClemson2434.784.560.22
13Eli HaroldOLBVirginia2474.84.60.2
14Xavier CooperDTWashington St.2935.064.860.2
15Tavaris BarnesDEClemson28254.80.2
16Jaelen StrongWRArizona State2174.644.440.2
17Preston SmithDEMississippi St.2714.934.740.19
18Tre McBrideWRWilliam & Mary2104.64.410.19
19Derrick LottDTTennessee-Chattanooga3145.174.990.18
20Amari CooperWRAlabama2114.64.420.18
21Edmond RobinsonOLBNewberry2454.794.610.18
22Sammie CoatesWRAuburn2124.614.430.18
23Angelo BlacksonDTAuburn3185.195.020.17
24David JohnsonRBNorthern Iowa2244.674.50.17
25Ryan RussellDEPurdue2694.924.750.17
26Landon CollinsSSAlabama2284.74.530.17
27Jeremy LangfordRBMichigan St.2084.594.420.17
28Wes SaxtonTESouth Alabama2484.814.650.16
29Ali MarpetCHobart & William Smith3075.134.980.15
30Trae WaynesCBMichigan St.1864.464.310.15
31Antwan GoodleyWRBaylor2094.594.440.15
32Malcom BrownDTTexas3195.25.050.15
33Brandon ScherffOGIowa3195.25.050.15
34Frank ClarkDEMichigan2714.934.790.14
35Marcus MariotaQBOregon2224.664.520.14
36DeVante ParkerWRLouisville2094.594.450.14
37Kwon AlexanderOLBLSU2274.694.550.14
38Mario Edwards Jr.DTFlorida St.2794.984.840.14
39Zack HodgesOLBHarvard2504.824.680.14
40Leonard WilliamsDEUSC3025.114.970.14
41Benardrick McKinneyILBMississippi St.2464.84.660.14
42Carl DavisDTIowa3205.215.070.14
43Xzavier DicksonOLBAlabama2604.874.740.13
44Justin CoxFSMississippi St.1914.494.360.13
45Bryce HagerILBBaylor2344.734.60.13
46Phillip DorsettWRMiami1854.464.330.13
48Jaquiski TarttSSSamford2214.664.530.13
47Javorius AllenRBUSC2214.664.530.13
49Ben HeeneyILBKansas2314.714.590.12
50Ronald DarbyCBFlorida St.1934.54.380.12
51Anthony ChickilloDEMiami2674.914.790.12
52Za'Darius SmithDEKentucky2744.954.830.12
53Eric RoweFSUtah2054.574.450.12
54Jake FisherOTOregon3065.135.010.12
55Rakeem Nunez-RochesDTSouthern Miss3075.135.020.11
56Jake RyanOLBMichigan2404.764.650.11
57Nelson AgholorWRUSC1984.534.420.11
58Trenton BrownOGFlorida3555.45.290.11
59Eric KendricksILBUCLA2324.724.610.11
60Ty MontgomeryWRStanford2214.664.550.11
61Craig MagerCBTexas St.2014.554.440.11
62Josh ShawCBUSC2014.554.440.11
63Kenny BellWRNebraska1974.524.420.1
64Melvin GordonRBWisconsin2154.624.520.1
65Matt JonesRBFlorida2314.714.610.1
66Doran GrantCBOhio St.2004.544.440.1
67Devin SmithWROhio St.1964.524.420.1
68Ellis McCarthyDTUCLA3385.315.210.1
69Randy GregoryOLBNebraska2354.734.640.09
70Deon SimonNTNorthwestern St. (LA)3215.215.120.09
71Clayton GeathersSSCentral Florida2184.644.550.09
72Jay AjayiRBBoise St.2214.664.570.09
73Jordan PhillipsNTOklahoma3295.265.170.09
74Keith MumpheryWRMichigan St.2154.624.540.08
75Darius PhilonDTArkansas2985.0850.08
76Laurence GibsonOTVirginia Tech3055.125.040.08
77Devante DavisWRUNLV2204.654.570.08
78Adrian AmosFSPenn St.2184.644.560.08
79Louis Trinca-PasatDTIowa2905.044.960.08
80Jalen CollinsCBLSU2034.564.480.08
81Cameron Artis-PayneRBAuburn2124.614.530.08
82Martin IfediDEMemphis2754.964.880.08
83Obum GwachamDEOregon St.2464.84.720.08
84Kyle EmanuelOLBNorth Dakota St.2554.854.770.08
85T.J. YeldonRBAlabama2264.694.610.08
86Geneo GrissomDEOklahoma2624.884.810.07
87Jarvis HarrisonOGTexas A&M3305.265.190.07
88Blake SimsQBAlabama2184.644.570.07
89Zach ZennerRBSouth Dakota St.2234.674.60.07
90Mike HullOLBPenn St.2374.754.680.07
91Leon OrrDTFlorida3235.225.160.06
92DeAndrew WhiteWRAlabama1934.54.440.06
93Michael DyerRBLouisville2184.644.580.06
94Jordan HicksOLBTexas2364.744.680.06
95Damarious RandallFSArizona State1964.524.460.06
96Grady JarrettNTClemson3045.125.060.06
97Shaq ThompsonOLBWashington2284.74.640.06
98Brett HundleyQBUCLA2264.694.630.06
99Malcolm BrownRBTexas2244.674.620.05
100Stefon DiggsWRMaryland1954.514.460.05
101Jesse JamesTEPenn St.2614.884.830.05
102Terry PooleOGSan Diego St.3075.135.090.04
103Tyler LockettWRKansas St.1824.444.40.04
105Nick MarshallQBAuburn2074.584.540.04
104Duke JohnsonRBMiami2074.584.540.04
106Dezmin LewisWRCentral Arkansas2144.624.580.04
107Cody FajardoQBNevada2234.674.630.04
108Donovan SmithOGPenn St.3385.315.270.04
109Steven NelsonCBOregon St.1974.524.490.03
110Michael BurtonFBRutgers2424.774.740.03
111Clive WalfordTEMiami2514.824.790.03
112Maxx WilliamsTEMinnesota2494.814.780.03
113Henry AndersonDEStanford2945.065.030.03
114James SampleSSLouisville2094.594.560.03
115Blake BellTEOklahoma2524.834.80.03
116Da'Ron BrownWRNorthern Illinois2054.574.540.03
117Mike DavisRBSouth Carolina2174.644.610.03
118Gabe WrightDTAuburn3005.15.070.02
119Trey WilliamsRBTexas A&M1954.514.490.02
120Alani FuaOLBBYU2384.754.730.02
121Damien WilsonILBMinnesota2454.794.770.02
122D'Joun SmithCBFlorida Atlantic1874.474.450.02
123Devin FunchessWRMichigan2324.724.70.02
124Nate OrchardDEUtah2504.824.80.02
125Lorenzo MauldinOLBLouisville2594.874.850.02
126J.J. NelsonWRUAB1564.34.280.02
127Cameron ErvingCFlorida St.3135.175.150.02
128John CrockettRBNorth Dakota St.2174.644.620.02
129D.J. HumphriesOTFlorida3075.135.120.01
130Lynden TrailDENorfolk St.2694.924.910.01
131Chaz GreenOTFlorida3145.175.160.01
132Alex CarterCBStanford1964.524.510.01
133Titus DavisWRCentral Michigan1964.524.510.01
134T.J. ClemmingsOTPittsburgh3095.145.140
135Vince MayleWRWashington St.2244.674.670
136Tyeler DavisonDTFresno St.3165.185.180
138Bobby McCainCBMemphis1954.514.510
137Kaelin ClayWRUtah1954.514.510
139La'el CollinsOTLSU3055.125.120
140Mario AlfordWRWest Virginia1804.434.430
141Marcus PetersCBWashington1974.524.53-0.01
142Max VallesOLBVirginia2514.824.83-0.01
143Corey CrawfordDEClemson28355.01-0.01
144Charles GainesCBLouisville1804.434.44-0.01
145Julian WilsonCBOklahoma2054.574.58-0.01
146Cameron ClearTETexas A&M2774.974.98-0.01
147Andrus PeatOTStanford3135.175.18-0.01
148Deon LongWRMaryland1924.54.51-0.01
149Cody PrewittFSMississippi2084.594.6-0.01
150Mitch MorseOGMissouri3055.125.14-0.02
151Hayes PullardILBUSC2404.764.78-0.02
152Brandon BridgeQBSouth Alabama2294.74.72-0.02
153Zack WagenmannDEMontana2474.84.82-0.02
154Damian SwannCBGeorgia1894.484.5-0.02
155Dean MarloweFSJames Madison2034.564.58-0.02
156Trey FlowersDEArkansas2664.914.93-0.02
157Ramik WilsonILBGeorgia2374.754.77-0.02
158Thomas RawlsRBCentral Michigan2154.624.65-0.03
159Markus GoldenDEMissouri2604.874.9-0.03
160Kyshoen JarrettSSVirginia Tech2004.544.57-0.03
161Jeremiah PoutasiOGUtah3355.295.32-0.03
162Ameer AbdullahRBNebraska2054.574.6-0.03
163Ezell RuffinWRSan Diego St.2184.644.68-0.04
164Denzel PerrymanILBMiami2364.744.78-0.04
165Takoby CofieldOTDuke3105.155.19-0.04
166Quandre DiggsCBTexas1964.524.56-0.04
167Durell EskridgeFSSyracuse2084.594.63-0.04
168Amarlo HerreraILBGeorgia2444.784.83-0.05
169Kevin JohnsonCBWake Forest1884.474.52-0.05
170Donatella LuckettWRHarding2114.64.65-0.05
171Jordan RichardsSSStanford2114.64.65-0.05
172Arik ArmsteadDTOregon2925.055.1-0.05
173Jean SifrinTEMassachusetts2454.794.84-0.05
174Leterrius WaltonDTCentral Michigan3195.25.25-0.05
175Senquez GolsonCBMississippi1764.414.46-0.05
176B.J. DuboseOLBLouisville2845.015.06-0.05
177Ereck FlowersOTMiami3295.265.31-0.05
178B.J. FinneyCKansas St.3185.195.25-0.06
179Quinten RollinsCBMiami (OH)1954.514.57-0.06
180Ross ScheuermanRBLafayette2044.564.62-0.06
181Lorenzo DossCBTulane1824.444.5-0.06
182P.J. WilliamsCBFlorida St.1944.514.57-0.06
183Justin HardyWREast Carolina1924.54.56-0.06
184Kurtis DrummondFSMichigan St.2084.594.65-0.06
185Josh RobinsonRBMississippi St.2174.644.7-0.06
186Jermaine WhiteheadFSAuburn1974.524.59-0.07
187Mark GlowinskiOGWest Virginia3075.135.2-0.07
188Rannell HallWRCentral Florida1984.534.6-0.07
189Justin ColemanCBTennessee1854.464.53-0.07
190J.T. SurrattDTSouth Carolina3045.125.19-0.07
191Davaris DanielsWRNotre Dame2014.554.62-0.07
192Gus JohnsonRBStephen F. Austin2154.624.7-0.08
193Gerald ChristianTELouisville2444.784.87-0.09
194Tye SmithCBTowson1954.514.6-0.09
195Rashad GreeneWRFlorida St.1824.444.53-0.09
196Eric TomlinsonTETexas-El Paso2634.894.98-0.09
197Daryl WilliamsOTOklahoma3275.245.34-0.1
198J.R. TavaiOLBUSC2494.814.91-0.1
199Jalston FowlerFBAlabama2544.844.94-0.1
200Braylon HeardRBKentucky1984.534.63-0.1
201Nick O'LearyTEFlorida St.2524.834.93-0.1
202Jamison CrowderWRDuke1854.464.56-0.1
203B.J. CatalonRBTCU1864.464.57-0.11
205Laken TomlinsonOGDuke3235.225.33-0.11
204Jon FelicianoOGMiami3235.225.33-0.11
206Marcus MurphyRBMissouri1934.54.61-0.11
207David CobbRBMinnesota2294.74.81-0.11
208Troy HillCBOregon1824.444.55-0.11
209Donald CeliscarCBWestern Michigan1944.514.62-0.11
210Anthony HarrisSSVirginia1834.454.56-0.11
211Tony LippettWRMichigan St.1924.54.61-0.11
212Tevin McDonaldFSEastern Washington1954.514.63-0.12
213Garry PetersCBClemson1914.494.61-0.12
214Nick BoyleTEDelaware2684.925.04-0.12
215Ryan DelaireDETowson2544.844.97-0.13
216Jamil DouglasOGArizona State3045.125.25-0.13
217Joe CardonaLSNavy2424.774.91-0.14
218Ladarius GunterCBMiami2024.554.69-0.14
219Martrell SpaightOLBArkansas2364.744.88-0.14
220Andrew DonnalOTIowa3135.175.31-0.14
221Kenny HilliardRBLSU2264.694.83-0.14
222Jahwan EdwardsRBBall St.2204.654.8-0.15
223Josh HarperWRFresno St.1914.494.64-0.15
224Bobby RichardsonDTIndiana28355.16-0.16
225Rob CrispOTN.C. State3015.15.26-0.16
226Taiwan JonesILBMichigan St.2454.794.95-0.16
227Tayo FabulujeOGTCU3535.395.55-0.16
228Bryce PettyQBBaylor2304.714.87-0.16
229Jerry LovelockeQBPrairie View A&M2484.814.99-0.18
230Kevin WhiteCBTCU1834.454.63-0.18
231Tony WashingtonOLBOregon2474.84.99-0.19
232Christion JonesWRAlabama1824.444.63-0.19
233Anthony JeffersonCBUCLA1984.534.72-0.19
234Paul DawsonILBTCU2354.734.93-0.2
235Robert MyersOGTennessee St.3265.245.44-0.2
236Ty SambrailoOTColorado St.3115.165.36-0.2
237Bryan BennettQBSoutheastern Louisiana2114.64.81-0.21
238Austin ShepherdOTAlabama3155.185.39-0.21
239Jacoby GlennCBCentral Florida1794.424.64-0.22
240John MillerOGLouisville3035.115.33-0.22
241Joey IosefaRBHawaii2474.85.02-0.22
242Reese DismukesCAuburn2965.075.31-0.24
243David ParryNTStanford3085.145.38-0.24
244Rob HavensteinOTWisconsin3215.215.46-0.25
245Jameis WinstonQBFlorida St.2314.714.97-0.26
246Tre' JacksonOGFlorida St.3305.265.52-0.26
247Dee HartRBColorado St.1994.544.8-0.26
248Aaron DavisOLBColorado St.2254.684.95-0.27
249Chris HackettFSTCU1954.514.81-0.3
250Shane CardenQBEast Carolina2184.644.94-0.3
251Anthony BooneQBDuke2314.715.03-0.32
252Danny SheltonNTWashington3395.315.64-0.33
253Andy GallikCBoston College3065.135.5-0.37
254Joey MbuDTHouston3135.175.54-0.37
255Josue MatiasOGFlorida St.3095.145.52-0.38
256Darrian MillerOGKentucky3075.135.51-0.38
257Adam SheadOGOklahoma3385.315.74-0.43
258Sean MannionQBOregon St.2294.75.14-0.44
259Al BondOGMemphis3035.115.57-0.46
260Brett BoykoOTUNLV3015.15.6-0.5
  • Arif Hasan

    If we do it by position grouping (I used RB, WR, Edge, Off-ball Linebacker, Interior Defensive Line, Offensive Line, Defensive Back) we get slightly different results. The top 40’s by weight-adjustment and position grouping-

    RB: Jeremy Langford, +0.07 seconds (bad year for them)
    WR: Chris Conley/Kevin White, +0.19 seconds
    Edge: Bud Dupree, +0.23 seconds
    OB: Stephone Anthony, +0.15 seconds
    DT: Tarvares Barnes, +0.11 seconds
    OL: Trenton Brown, +0.29 seconds
    DB: Ronald Darby, +0.16 (huge shock, I know)

    Positional skills seem to matter a lot. For example, no one beats 0.25 seconds. If I include Owa Odighizuwa as an interior DL, he wins with +0.15 seconds. Waller is fast and heavy, but among receivers, the regression equation is different enough that White/Conley walk away with it. And of course, Beasley and Fowler were good enough (+0.18 and +0.16) that their margin of victory would win most categories.

    Offensive linemen are slow. Ali Marpet makes more sense as the winner than Trenton Brown though, so that’s interesting (he had an impressive +0.20, while Laurence Gibson was +0.14).

    I didn’t do TE, but I know Pruitt would win.

    • Thanks, Arif. I like that in theory, but doesn’t Brown’s score seem way too high? The fact that he was the heaviest player at the combine and gets the best score in your formula concerns me.

      OTOH, mine may not be right in the other direction. For example, J.J. Nelson comes in at #126. Although frankly, no system is going to be able to perfectly handle a guy who weighs 20 pounds less than everyone else.

      • Richie

        156 pounds? Dang.

      • Arif Hasan

        Concerns me, too. I drew on NFLDS data going back to 2005, too, so it should have captured weight outliers.

        I think this is just an issue of purely linear regressions. I did it for all data going back to 1999 for each score (with no position groupings), and found the usual suspects as having the best combined combine scores of all time (Vernon Davis, J.J. Watt, Dontari Poe, Evan Mathis, etc) in the top ten, but the best score went to Aaron Gibson, the heaviest man in NFL history (who admittedly moved really, really well—average scores for an offensive lineman, but at 386 pounds).

        My system tends to bias bigger guys, I think. After Davis, the “best” weight/height adjusted combine z-score (again, no position grouping) for a skill position player was Christine Michael at 12, then Jonathan Stewart at 14… then Jarrod Cooper at 22, Curtis Keaton 28.

        The top ten had nine OL/DL, then 11. Big guy, 12. Michael, 13. Big guy, 14. Stewart, 15. Big guy, 16. Big guy, 17. Big guy. 18. Big guy, 19. Big guy, 20. Big guy, 21. Big guy, 22. Cooper

        Etc.