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Guest Post: Are Interceptions Overrated?

Guest contributor Adam Steele is back again. You can read all of Adam’s articles here.


Are Interceptions Overrated?

There’s nothing worse than throwing an interception. Everyone seems to agree on this, from fans to media to advanced stats guys. But is it really true? In this quick study, I looked at the tradeoff between interception avoidance and aggressive downfield passing to see which strategy has a larger impact on winning. To measure this, I created two categories of quarterbacks: Game Managers and Gunslingers.

First, the Game Managers, which includes all post-merger quarterback seasons with an INT%+ of at least 110 [1]Which means the player was at least 0.67 standard deviations better than league average at avoiding interceptions. and a NY/A+ of 90 or below (min 224 attempts). [2]Which means the player was at least 0.67 standard deviations worse than league average in net yards per attempt. These guys avoided picks but failed to move the ball efficiently, the hallmark of a conservative playing style.

ManagerYearTmWLTInt%+NY/A+
Derek Carr2014OAK313011174
Sam Bradford2013STL34011989
Alex Smith2013KAN114012187
Nick Foles2012PHI15011486
Blaine Gabbert2012JAX19011077
Sam Bradford2011STL19011973
Tim Tebow2011DEN74011075
Jason Campbell2008WAS88012689
JaMarcus Russell2008OAK510011290
Joey Harrington2007ATL37011187
Cleo Lemon2007MIA16011777
Brooks Bollinger2005NYJ27011577
Chris Simms2005TAM64011589
Kyle Boller2004BAL97011478
Mark Brunell2004WAS36011172
Josh McCown2004ARI67011286
Drew Bledsoe2003BUF610011079
Rich Gannon2003OAK25012481
Shane Matthews2002WAS34011278
Matt Hasselbeck2001SEA57011283
Brad Johnson2001TAM97012088
Drew Bledsoe2000NWE511011489
Rob Johnson2000BUF47011687
Donovan McNabb2000PHI115011685
Akili Smith2000CIN29011757
Jeff Blake1997CIN38011490
Kent Graham1997ARI15011782
Jim Harbaugh1997IND29012787
Neil O'Donnell1997NYJ86012484
Kent Graham1996ARI44011083
Drew Bledsoe1995NWE69011180
Steve Bono1995KAN133012190
Dave Brown1995NYG511011684
Mark Brunell1995JAX37011979
Rick Mirer1994SEA58012080
Neil O'Donnell1994PIT104011190
John Friesz1993SDG24012688
David Klingler1993CIN310011276
Jim McMahon1993MIN84011589
Randall Cunningham1992PHI105011090
Jeff George1991IND115011773
Bubby Brister1989PIT86011179
Randall Cunningham1989PHI115011386
Steve Beuerlein1988RAI44011388
Randall Cunningham1988PHI106011489
Ken O'Brien1988NYJ65113180
Randall Cunningham1987PHI75011487
Ken O'Brien1987NYJ57012787
David Archer1986ATL55111389
Ron Jaworski1986PHI36012275
Neil Lomax1986STL49111674
Neil Lomax1985STL511012087
Ron Jaworski1984PHI57111290
Phil Simms1981NYG55012178
Steve Fuller1980KAN67011084
Ken Anderson1979CIN411012389
Greg Landry1979BAL210011989
Mike Phipps1979CHI91012187
Ron Jaworski1978PHI97011390
Greg Landry1977DET47012576
Steve Spurrier1976TAM012011480
Terry Bradshaw*1972PIT113011590
Len Dawson*1972KAN75011488
Dan Pastorini1972HOU111011478
Virgil Carter1970CIN74011890

There are 65 seasons fitting this criteria, and the results are not pretty. Collectively, these quarterbacks compiled a record of 339-446-4, for a .432 winning percentage. The Game Managers list is populated by many of the worst modern passers, including notorious busts such as Gabbert, Russell, Harrington, and Boller, plus a host of rookies and washed up veterans. One can certainly go too far when it comes to sacrificing yardage as a way to avoid interceptions. [3]Chase comment: There is another possible explanation. Perhaps these quarterbacks were just not very good, and were lucky to have low interception rates? In that respect, the low NY/A/low INT rate … Continue reading

Now, the Gunslingers. For this category, I simply flipped the two variables, meaning passers with a NY/A+ of at least 110 and an INT%+ of 90 or less. These quarterbacks employed a high risk/high reward strategy, aggressively moving the ball downfield, interceptions be damned.

GunslingerYearTmWLTInt%+NY/A+
Mark Sanchez2014PHI44085111
Philip Rivers2011SDG88090119
Carson Palmer2011OAK45066127
Eli Manning2010NYG106077113
Tony Romo2007DAL133090124
Kurt Warner2007ARI56088116
Sage Rosenfels2007HOU41069111
Tony Romo2006DAL64088131
Ben Roethlisberger2004PIT130090124
Jake Plummer2004DEN106088125
Brett Favre2003GNB106077111
Tommy Maddox2002PIT73182118
Kurt Warner2001STL142087137
Peyton Manning2001IND610084117
Jay Fiedler2001MIA115083112
Trent Green2001KAN610077110
Kurt Warner2000STL83070158
Brett Favre1998GNB115087117
Mike Tomczak1996PIT105083113
Vinny Testaverde1994CLE94074110
Steve Beuerlein1993PHO68090114
Cody Carlson1992HOU42080115
Chris Miller1991ATL95089116
Boomer Esiason1990CIN97074110
Jim Kelly*1989BUF67089118
Steve DeBerg1989KAN64084123
Warren Moon*1987HOU75087115
Wade Wilson1987MIN52086114
Dan Fouts*1986SDG39085110
Dave Krieg1984SEA124090111
Mark Malone1984PIT63074111
Lynn Dickey1983GNB88077139
Eric Hipple1981DET64087122
Terry Bradshaw*1980PIT96090118
Danny White1980DAL124083112
Steve Grogan1980NWE75063127
Richard Todd1979NYJ87078122
Matt Robinson1978NYJ65090110
Steve Grogan1978NWE115086127
Ken Stabler1977OAK103084120
Steve Grogan1977NWE95083115
Jim Zorn1977SEA46076115
Ken Stabler1975OAK103069120
Jim Plunkett1974NWE77090113
Bob Berry1971ATL45185132
Bob Griese*1970MIA104086113

There are 46 Gunslinger seasons since 1970, and these quarterbacks were far more successful than their conservative counterparts. The group went 363-229-2, for a .613 winning percentage. Even if we only consider the 15 seasons with an INT%+ of 80 or worse, the combined winning percentage is still .585. [4]Another Chase note: interceptions can be the effect of losing, too, as quarterbacks are more likely to throw interceptions when they are trailing in the 4th quarter than when they are ahead. So … Continue reading It appears that quarterbacks can get away with high interception rates as long as they move the ball efficiently. Why are Gunslingers so successful? And why are there so many Game Manager types in the modern game, when it doesn’t usually lead to winning?

First off, I think we need to redefine what throwing a pick actually means. Most observers equate throwing interceptions with recklessness, carelessness, inability to read coverage, and poor accuracy. No question those attributions may be true in specific cases. But I see a different, more encouraging corollary: Throwing interceptions is a byproduct of aggressive, optimal quarterbacking. The interceptions themselves are not good, but the willingness to risk throwing them is. Benjamin Morris has mentioned this phenomenon several times in his FiveThirtyEight research, specifically with regard to Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers.

Despite throwing a high number of picks, Luck has consistently won games, and erased double digit deficits in many of those victories. While interceptions are damaging to his overall stats (both traditional and advanced), his risk/reward balance is probably closer to optimal than any other quarterback in the league, especially considering his relatively weak supporting cast. In contrast, take a closer look at Aaron Rodgers. Despite owning the lowest interception rate in NFL history, he has a middling record in close games, and a downright terrible record when coming from behind. Why? He’s not taking the risks necessary to optimize his chances of winning. Even when trailing, which calls for a more aggressive strategy, Rodgers will usually take a sack rather than force a throw downfield. Avoiding interceptions keeps his stats looking pretty, but he has almost certainly left several wins on the table in the process.

This is not a theory without support from the analytics crowd. Brian Burke wrote something similar with respect to Jason Campbell in 2008. Jason Lisk also produced some interesting research on the subject, and Doug Drinen once wrote about how avoiding turnovers is like showing up to the airport too early.

I would hypothesize that aggression is even more important in the playoffs, where the one-and-done format favors a high variance strategy, especially for the underdog. Consider the unlikely Super Bowl runs over the past decade; every one of those teams had a Gunslinger type QB (Joe Flacco in 2012, Eli Manning in 2011 and 2007, Kurt Warner in 2008, Jake Delhomme in 2003). While all of them look terrible when things go wrong, their high risk styles give their teams a chance even when they’re overmatched. Everyone makes fun of Jake Delhomme for his 5 INT meltdown in the 2008 playoffs, but he also threw an 85 yard TD bomb to tie Super Bowl XXXVIII with under two minutes left.

As lucky as the Helmet Catch was, Eli Manning deserves credit for even attempting that pass; if he had taken the sack or thrown a checkdown, the Giants surely would have lost. Who can forget Joe Flacco’s 70 yard TD to force OT against the Broncos, which literally saved his team’s season? Now imagine Sam Bradford or Jason Campbell making these plays. In your dreams.

Given this evidence, why are so many quarterbacks afraid of throwing an interception? In my opinion, it’s the same psychology that causes coaches to be risk averse on fourth downs. Even though the aggressive strategy is better in the long run, they know they’ll be raked through the coals when their gambles don’t pay off. Let me share the example that inspired this study in the first place:

In week 13, Denver and Kansas City met on Sunday Night Football. With 25 seconds left in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs faced a fourth and 19 at their own 8-yard line down by 13 points.  No, Kansas City was not going to win the game, but what did Alex Smith do? He ran out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage! Let that sink in. Even in a situation where there was zero downside to throwing an interception, Smith was still too risk averse to even attempt a pass. But in spite of this decision, he was spared any criticism from the media, and this game was on national TV! Then consider the reaction when Tony Romo or Peyton Manning throws a late interception in a comeback attempt; they’re excoriated from coast and coast for trying to make something happen. The incentives are backwards, just like they are for coaches. And given that these are human beings with their jobs potentially on the line, it’s no wonder some choose to walk on the safe side.

References

References
1 Which means the player was at least 0.67 standard deviations better than league average at avoiding interceptions.
2 Which means the player was at least 0.67 standard deviations worse than league average in net yards per attempt.
3 Chase comment: There is another possible explanation. Perhaps these quarterbacks were just not very good, and were lucky to have low interception rates? In that respect, the low NY/A/low INT rate combination may not be a reflection of a conscious decision.
4 Another Chase note: interceptions can be the effect of losing, too, as quarterbacks are more likely to throw interceptions when they are trailing in the 4th quarter than when they are ahead. So against that backdrop, the results here are even more significant.
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