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Here’s a quick Monday data dump… I ran the Simple Rating System (for offense and defense) on this year’s NFL results, but instead of weighing each game equally, I used Wayne Winston’s method of giving more weight to recent outcomes. Winston’s system is simply to give each game a weight of:

λ ^ (weeks ago)

In the NFL’s case, a λ of 0.95 works best for predicting future outcomes. The games from yesterday were (6 – week 6) = 0 weeks ago, so they get a weight of .95 ^ 0, or 1.00. Last week’s games were (6 – week 5) = 1 week ago, and get a weight of .95 ^ 1 = 0.95; the opening-week games were (6 – week 1) = 5 weeks ago, and get a weight of .95 ^ 5 = 0.77. See how it works?

Using this weighted form of SRS, here are the rankings going into tonight’s game (NOTE: For defenses, negative SRS numbers are better):

Rk
Team
Gms
W
L
Off
Def
SRS
wpa_loc
wpa_vegas
wpa_1st
wpa_2nd
wpa_3rd
wpa_4th/ot
1Chicago Bears5417.6-7.615.2-0.070.480.130.020.730.22
2New York Giants6429.8-3.012.80.000.260.060.210.050.43
3San Francisco 49ers6420.5-10.410.90.000.80-0.040.210.30-0.28
4New England Patriots6339.00.48.6-0.141.000.620.000.27-1.75
5Green Bay Packers6334.9-2.57.50.000.670.440.06-0.64-0.53
6Seattle Seahawks642-2.0-8.76.60.00-0.200.68-0.740.191.07
7Houston Texans6514.6-1.25.80.001.34-0.190.760.12-0.02
8Atlanta Falcons6602.3-3.25.40.000.610.520.200.411.25
9Denver Broncos5232.5-2.24.70.07-0.13-0.34-0.630.120.41
10Tampa Bay Buccaneers523-0.5-4.54.00.07-0.420.350.200.36-1.06
11St Louis Rams633-2.8-6.73.90.00-0.770.020.27-0.100.58
12Dallas Cowboys5231.4-2.33.6-0.070.23-0.21-0.18-0.400.13
13Baltimore Ravens6511.4-2.13.50.140.65-0.310.760.060.70
14Arizona Cardinals642-3.8-5.71.90.14-0.360.080.10-0.191.22
15Washington Redskins6337.35.51.80.00-0.150.010.751.15-1.76
16Minnesota Vikings642-2.3-3.10.80.00-0.010.71-0.36-0.010.67
17Miami Dolphins633-2.8-2.5-0.30.00-0.59-0.010.741.29-1.43
18Detroit Lions5235.27.2-2.0-0.070.20-0.31-0.82-0.330.83
19Carolina Panthers514-2.5-0.4-2.20.07-0.12-0.84-0.050.24-0.80
20Philadelphia Eagles633-6.5-3.8-2.70.000.52-0.68-0.310.70-0.24
21New York Jets633-2.30.5-2.80.14-0.400.04-0.10-0.410.73
22San Diego Chargers532-3.3-0.5-2.8-0.070.270.450.020.36-0.53
23Cincinnati Bengals6330.34.9-4.6-0.140.170.610.43-1.210.14
24New Orleans Saints5143.27.8-4.60.070.390.05-0.95-0.08-0.99
25Pittsburgh Steelers523-2.02.8-4.8-0.070.540.130.160.18-1.44
26Cleveland Browns615-2.13.0-5.00.00-1.15-0.21-0.740.080.02
27Buffalo Bills6330.99.1-8.3-0.14-0.310.320.02-0.140.25
28Indianapolis Colts523-1.86.8-8.60.07-0.620.25-0.350.020.13
29Oakland Raiders514-4.26.6-10.8-0.07-0.39-0.240.30-1.550.45
30Kansas City Chiefs615-7.16.5-13.60.00-0.76-1.110.05-1.000.82
31Tennessee Titans624-4.98.9-13.80.00-1.15-0.610.39-0.350.72
32Jacksonville Jaguars514-10.73.3-14.00.07-0.60-0.38-0.44-0.210.06


I also included a breakdown of each team’s quarter-by-quarter Win Probability Added (WPA), so you can see where each team’s wins above/below average thus far have come from.

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