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Week 9 SRS Ratings: When Will Oregon Stop Scoring?

Oregon’s offense is ridiculous, and its defense and special teams aren’t far behind. Entering this weekend, Oregon had outscored opponents 234-46 … in the first half. Prior to their game against Colorado, Bill Connelly ranked Oregon as the third best defense in college football. Against the horrible Buffaloes, the Ducks didn’t disappoint.

Oregon jumped out to a 28-0 lead after the first quarter, and led 56-0 by halftime. Backup quarterback Bryan Bennett led the team with three touchdowns in the 70-14 rout. De’Anthony Thomas rushed for 97 yards on five carries and scored on a 73-yard punt return. Kenjon Barner had 9 carries for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns, and if not for the one-yard score, would have averaged 12.9 yards per carry; he also caught a 48-yard pass.

For the Ducks, this was a going-through-the-motions victory against a very overmatched opponent. Soon, though, we’ll find out a little more about the Ducks. On Saturday, they go to Los Angeles to face a talented but inconsistent USC team. And while California isn’t a serious threat, the Ducks close with games against Stanford and Oregon State, who may at least be able to slow down the mighty Ducks offense. For now, though, Oregon looks like the one hope to make for an exciting BCS National Championship Game.

We can assume Alabama will take one spot, with Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame battling for the other golden ticket. The odds of another all-SEC title game dropped with the Florida loss to Georgia. That’s because the Bulldogs now have the inside track on winning the SEC East, with a head-to-head victory over Florida. South Carolina beat Georgia, but UGA will essentially win the division due to luck of the draw. South Carolina drew Arkansas and LSU in Baton Rouge from the SEC West this year, while Georgia gets to play Ole Miss and Auburn — their final two conference opponents. Assuming the Bulldogs can take care of business against Ole Miss next week, their ticket to Atlanta should be secure. Considering Florida could have boosted their SOS against Florida State — and also faced and defeated LSU — replacing Florida with Georgia as the SEC East champion lowers the odds of that division sending a team to Miami.

Without further ado, below are the week 9 SRS ratings. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for publishing his game results.

Rk
Team
Conf
Conf Rk
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
REC
1AlabamaSEC1827.643.771.38-0
2Kansas StB121822.543.866.38-0
3OregonP121827.238.765.98-0
4Notre DameIND--814.648.563.18-0
5OklahomaB122717.245.662.95-2
6FloridaSEC2813.747.861.57-1
7Texas A&MSEC3817.84360.86-2
8Florida StACC1924.731.656.48-1
9South CarolinaSEC491244.356.37-2
10Texas TechB123811.844.456.16-2
11LSUSEC5813.741.755.47-1
12Oregon StP12278.446.855.26-1
13GeorgiaSEC6812.942.255.17-1
14Southern CalP123813.740.353.96-2
15Ohio StateB101913.540.353.89-0
16StanfordP12487.146.753.86-2
17Arizona StP125811.941.253.25-3
18ArizonaP12685.347.552.95-3
19Oklahoma StB124714.837.752.55-2
20TexasB12587.944.352.16-2
21Utah StWAC1916.435.351.77-2
22MichiganB10287.643.551.25-3
23Brigham YoungIND--99.641.5515-4
24ClemsonACC2815.435.5517-1
25Fresno StMWC1913.237.150.26-3
26Iowa StB12684.245.950.15-3
27UCLAP12788.441.6506-2
28Boise StMWC2813.635.849.47-1
29WisconsinB10397.741.649.46-3
30Mississippi StSEC7812.935.848.77-1
31NebraskaB104810.338.448.76-2
32MississippiSEC884.843.348.15-3
33Michigan StB10593.444.147.55-4
34Louisiana TechWAC281630.846.87-1
35Northern IllinoisMAC1916.629.946.68-1
36North CarolinaACC3913.433.146.56-3
37TCUB12788.537.746.25-3
38West VirginiaB1287244.146.15-2
39BaylorB12970.845.2463-4
40Louisiana-MonroeSun1811.534.245.76-2
41San José StWAC389.636.145.76-2
42Penn StateB10688.137.545.65-3
43MissouriSEC98-0.946.245.34-4
44NorthwesternB1079738.345.37-2
45TennesseeSEC108-0.245.345.13-5
46UtahP1288-1.746.745.13-5
47CincinnatiBgE1712.931.644.45-2
48Central FloridaCUS1812.731.544.26-2
49WashingtonP1298-6.650.644.14-4
50TulsaCUS2812.231.843.97-1
51LouisvilleBgE289.634.143.78-0
52RutgersBgE3811.831.543.37-1
53CaliforniaP12109-3.245.542.33-6
54North Carolina StACC484.637.742.25-3
55Miami FLACC58-3.945.9424-4
56ArkansasSEC118-3.345.3423-5
57San Diego StMWC398.633.341.96-3
58PurdueB1088-0.842.341.53-5
59VanderbiltSEC1282.638.541.14-4
60Western KentuckySun287.433.6416-2
61Kent StMAC2810.330.640.97-1
62IowaB1098-1.341.840.54-4
63SyracuseBgE480.839.640.44-4
64ToledoMAC398.23240.28-1
65MinnesotaB101081.938.340.25-3
66IndianaB10118337.140.13-5
67SMUCUS384.135.839.94-4
68Virginia TechACC68335.938.94-4
69NavyIND--82.136.238.35-3
70NevadaMWC496.331.738.16-3
71Air ForceMWC586.730.937.65-3
72Ball StMAC491.935.437.26-3
73PittsburghBgE584.932.337.24-4
74South FloridaBgE68-3.14036.92-6
75DukeACC792.334.436.76-3
76KansasB12108-12.448.636.21-7
77Arkansas StSun384.23236.25-3
78Georgia TechACC881.634.335.93-5
79AuburnSEC138-13.649.135.51-7
80Middle Tennessee StSun482.432.835.25-3
81Washington StP12118-9.444.4352-6
82Ohio U.MAC5811.623.234.77-1
83KentuckySEC149-13.848.334.51-8
84Louisiana-LafayetteSun574.629.834.54-3
85Bowling GreenMAC69826.334.36-3
86HoustonCUS48-1.835.934.14-4
87New MexicoMWC69-1.435.333.94-5
88TroySun680.932.533.44-4
89East CarolinaCUS59-1.734.7335-4
90MarylandACC98131.832.84-4
91Texas St-San MarcosWAC47-3.835.932.23-4
92TempleBgE77-4.53631.53-4
93Western MichiganMAC79-2.233.731.53-6
94MarshallCUS68-2.734.231.53-5
95Boston CollegeACC108-7.438.531.12-6
96UTEPCUS79-8.839.230.42-7
97ConnecticutBgE88-2.132.330.23-5
98North TexasSun78-4.93530.13-5
99RiceCUS89-434303-6
100UNLVMWC79-11.841.229.41-8
101Florida AtlanticSun88-9.938.528.52-6
102WyomingMWC88-11.44028.51-7
103VirginiaACC118-9.337.3282-6
104Alabama-BirminghamCUS98-8.436.327.91-7
105Wake ForestACC128-7.935.827.94-4
106Colorado StMWC98-11.839.427.72-6
107IllinoisB10128-12.339.727.42-6
108Central MichiganMAC88-8.835.927.13-5
109Florida Int'lSun99-10.736.325.61-8
110BuffaloMAC98-11.236.625.51-7
111Miami OHMAC108-9.835.125.34-4
112ColoradoP12128-20.944.9241-7
113South AlabamaSun108-1033.723.72-6
114Texas-San AntonioWAC583.51922.55-3
115Eastern MichiganMAC118-14.636.922.31-7
116AkronMAC129-10.332.322.11-8
117ArmyIND--8-12.834.7221-7
118TulaneCUS108-17.639.221.72-6
119Southern MissCUS118-19.440.220.70-8
120New Mexico StWAC68-12.532.5201-7
121MemphisCUS128-15.435.319.91-7
122Hawai`iMWC107-17.136.619.41-6
123IdahoWAC78-20.437.216.81-7
124MassachusettsMAC138-24.936.111.20-8

Fun update: you can now view every game by an FBS school this season over at the Football Perspective NCAA Games page. I think that’s one of the coolest pages on college football out on the web. But if you want to look at just week 9 results, check out the table below:

Rank
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
OppConf
SOS
SRS
1Notre Dame_IND30Oklahoma13RoadWin1720B1262.982.9
2Kansas St_B1255Texas Tech24HomeWin3126B1256.182.1
3Alabama_SEC38Mississippi St7HomeWin3126SEC48.774.7
4Texas A&M_SEC63Auburn21RoadWin4234.5SEC35.570
5Georgia_SEC17Florida9NeutWin88SEC61.569.5
6Florida St_ACC48Duke7HomeWin4131ACC36.767.7
7Oklahoma St_B1236TCU14HomeWin2219B1246.265.2
8Central Florida_CUS54Marshall17RoadWin3732CUS31.563.5
9Oregon_P1270Colorado14HomeWin5638.5P122462.5
10Nebraska_B1023Michigan9HomeWin1411B1051.262.2
11Brigham Young_IND41Georgia Tech17RoadWin2425.5ACC35.961.4
12Utah_P1249California27HomeWin2219P1242.361.3
13Ohio State_B1035Penn State23RoadWin1215B1045.660.6
14Navy_IND56East Carolina28RoadWin2827.5CUS3360.5
15UCLA_P1245Arizona St43RoadWin27P1253.260.2
16Arkansas St_Sun50Louisiana-Lafayette27RoadWin2325Sun34.559.5
17Kent St_MAC35Rutgers23RoadWin1215BgE43.358.3
18Boise St_MWC45Wyoming14RoadWin3129MWC28.557.5
19Iowa St_B1235Baylor21HomeWin1411B124657
20Pittsburgh_BgE47Temple17HomeWin3025.5BgE31.557
21Michigan St_B1016Wisconsin13RoadWin37B1049.456.4
22Tennessee_SEC35South Carolina38RoadLoss-30SEC56.356.3
23Clemson_ACC42Wake Forest13RoadWin2928ACC27.955.9
24Washington_P1220Oregon St17HomeWin30P1255.255.2
25Minnesota_B1044Purdue28HomeWin1613B1041.554.5
26Missouri_SEC33Kentucky10HomeWin2320SEC34.554.5
27Fresno St_MWC49New Mexico32RoadWin1720MWC33.953.9
28Arizona_P1239Southern Cal36HomeWin30P1253.953.9
29Southern Cal_P1236Arizona39RoadLoss-30P1252.952.9
30Air Force_MWC48Nevada31HomeWin1714MWC38.152.1
31Utah St_WAC48Texas-San Antonio17RoadWin3129WAC22.551.5
32North Carolina_ACC43North Carolina St35HomeWin87ACC42.249.2
33Mississippi_SEC30Arkansas27NeutWin37SEC4249
34Northern Illinois_MAC48Western Michigan34RoadWin1417MAC31.548.5
35Northwestern_B1028Iowa17HomeWin118B1040.548.5
36Florida_SEC9Georgia17NeutLoss-8-8SEC55.147.1
37Washington St_P1217Stanford24RoadLoss-7-7P1253.846.8
38SMU_CUS44Memphis13HomeWin3126CUS19.945.9
39Mississippi St_SEC7Alabama38RoadLoss-31-26SEC71.345.3
40Kansas_B1217Texas21HomeLoss-4-7B1252.145.1
41South Carolina_SEC38Tennessee35HomeWin30SEC45.145.1
42Rice_CUS44Southern Miss17HomeWin2724CUS20.744.7
43Indiana_B1031Illinois17RoadWin1417B1027.444.4
44Louisville_BgE34Cincinnati31HomeWin30BgE44.444.4
45Oregon St_P1217Washington20RoadLoss-30P1244.144.1
46Middle Tennessee St_Sun38North Texas21HomeWin1714Sun30.144.1
47Syracuse_BgE37South Florida36RoadWin17BgE36.943.9
48Cincinnati_BgE31Louisville34RoadLoss-30BgE43.743.7
49Texas_B1221Kansas17RoadWin47B1236.243.2
50Oklahoma_B1213Notre Dame30HomeLoss-17-20IND63.143.1
51Arizona St_P1243UCLA45HomeLoss-2-7P125043
52Vanderbilt_SEC49Massachusetts7HomeWin4231.5MAC11.242.7
53Stanford_P1224Washington St17HomeWin77P123542
54Arkansas_SEC27Mississippi30NeutLoss-3-7SEC48.141.1
55Wisconsin_B1013Michigan St16HomeLoss-3-7B1047.540.5
56Florida Atlantic_Sun34Troy27HomeWin77Sun33.440.4
57Texas Tech_B1224Kansas St55RoadLoss-31-26B1266.340.3
58Bowling Green_MAC24Eastern Michigan3HomeWin2118MAC22.340.3
59San José St_WAC31Texas St-San Marcos20HomeWin118WAC32.240.2
60Central Michigan_MAC35Akron14HomeWin2118MAC22.140.1
61North Carolina St_ACC35North Carolina43RoadLoss-8-7ACC46.539.5
62Baylor_B1221Iowa St35RoadLoss-14-11B1250.139.1
63Penn State_B1023Ohio State35HomeLoss-12-15B1053.838.8
64Michigan_B109Nebraska23RoadLoss-14-11B1048.737.7
65Texas St-San Marcos_WAC20San José St31RoadLoss-11-8WAC45.737.7
66Houston_CUS45UTEP35HomeWin107CUS30.437.4
67San Diego St_MWC24UNLV13HomeWin118MWC29.437.4
68Iowa_B1017Northwestern28RoadLoss-11-8B1045.337.3
69Louisiana Tech_WAC28New Mexico St14RoadWin1417WAC2037
70Western Kentucky_Sun14Florida Int'l6RoadWin811Sun25.636.6
71Tulane_CUS55Alabama-Birmingham45HomeWin107CUS27.934.9
72South Alabama_Sun24Louisiana-Monroe38RoadLoss-14-11Sun45.734.7
73Louisiana-Monroe_Sun38South Alabama24HomeWin1411Sun23.734.7
74Miami OH_MAC23Ohio U.20HomeWin30MAC34.734.7
75UNLV_MWC13San Diego St24RoadLoss-11-8MWC41.933.9
76Toledo_MAC25Buffalo20RoadWin58MAC25.533.5
77TCU_B1214Oklahoma St36RoadLoss-22-19B1252.533.5
78South Florida_BgE36Syracuse37HomeLoss-1-7BgE40.433.4
79Ball St_MAC30Army22RoadWin811IND2233
80Boston College_ACC20Maryland17HomeWin30ACC32.832.8
81Buffalo_MAC20Toledo25HomeLoss-5-8MAC40.232.2
82Colorado St_MWC42Hawai`i27HomeWin1512MWC19.431.4
83Maryland_ACC17Boston College20RoadLoss-30ACC31.131.1
84New Mexico_MWC32Fresno St49HomeLoss-17-20MWC50.230.2
85Florida Int'l_Sun6Western Kentucky14HomeLoss-8-11Sun4130
86New Mexico St_WAC14Louisiana Tech28HomeLoss-14-17WAC46.829.8
87Western Michigan_MAC34Northern Illinois48HomeLoss-14-17MAC46.629.6
88Colorado_P1214Oregon70RoadLoss-56-38.5P1265.927.4
89Purdue_B1028Minnesota44RoadLoss-16-13B1040.227.2
90UTEP_CUS35Houston45RoadLoss-10-7CUS34.127.1
91Auburn_SEC21Texas A&M63HomeLoss-42-34.5SEC60.826.3
92Army_IND22Ball St30HomeLoss-8-11MAC37.226.2
93California_P1227Utah49RoadLoss-22-19P1245.126.1
94Rutgers_BgE23Kent St35HomeLoss-12-15MAC40.925.9
95Georgia Tech_ACC17Brigham Young41HomeLoss-24-25.5IND5125.5
96Duke_ACC7Florida St48RoadLoss-41-31ACC56.425.4
97Ohio U._MAC20Miami OH23RoadLoss-30MAC25.325.3
98Kentucky_SEC10Missouri33RoadLoss-23-20SEC45.325.3
99Nevada_MWC31Air Force48RoadLoss-17-14MWC37.623.6
100Illinois_B1017Indiana31HomeLoss-14-17B1040.123.1
101Wake Forest_ACC13Clemson42HomeLoss-29-28ACC5123
102Texas-San Antonio_WAC17Utah St48HomeLoss-31-29WAC51.722.7
103Troy_Sun27Florida Atlantic34RoadLoss-7-7Sun28.521.5
104North Texas_Sun21Middle Tennessee St38RoadLoss-17-14Sun35.221.2
105Wyoming_MWC14Boise St45HomeLoss-31-29MWC49.420.4
106Eastern Michigan_MAC3Bowling Green24RoadLoss-21-18MAC34.316.3
107Hawai`i_MWC27Colorado St42RoadLoss-15-12MWC27.715.7
108Alabama-Birmingham_CUS45Tulane55RoadLoss-10-7CUS21.714.7
109Memphis_CUS13SMU44RoadLoss-31-26CUS39.913.9
110Marshall_CUS17Central Florida54HomeLoss-37-32CUS44.212.2
111Temple_BgE17Pittsburgh47RoadLoss-30-25.5BgE37.211.7
112Louisiana-Lafayette_Sun27Arkansas St50HomeLoss-23-25Sun36.211.2
113East Carolina_CUS28Navy56HomeLoss-28-27.5IND38.310.8
114Massachusetts_MAC7Vanderbilt49RoadLoss-42-31.5SEC41.19.6
115Akron_MAC14Central Michigan35RoadLoss-21-18MAC27.19.1
116Southern Miss_CUS17Rice44RoadLoss-27-24CUS306
  • Entering week 9, there were 11 undefeated teams, including the post-season ineligible Ohio State Buckeyes. Of the remaining 10 teams, only half of them remain unblemished. Ohio, Rutgers, Mississippi State, Oregon State, and Florida all lost this week, giving us a group of four undefeated teams, since nobody seems to care much about Louisville.
  • Congrats to Bill Snyder, Collin Klein and the Kansas State Wildcats for running their record to 8-0. In what looked to be a tough matchup, the Wildcats ended up defeating Texas Tech 55-24 as Klein threw for two touchdowns and rushed for two more. Still, the game was 13-10 at halftime and 27-17 with 20 minutes to go, before Kansas State slammed its foot on the pedal. With the win, K-State is now #2 in the SRS.
  • The Big 10 is almost certainly going to have Wisconsin in its championship game, which just played a game that nobody should have ever watched. I can’t say it any better than this: “After rushing for 804 yards in its last two games [against Purdue and Minnesota], Wisconsin managed a measly 19 yards rushing, its fewest in five years. Michigan State recovered a botched punt at the Wisconsin 11, only to be forced to punt after going minus-23 yards.
  • The world’s largest outdoor cocktail party between Florida and Georgia in Jacksonville took us back to 1936. The Gators had 13 drives in the game, and none of them were good. Four ended on fumbles and two on interceptions, with two of those turnovers coming in the Georgia end zone. Three drives ended on punts, where Florida gained a total of 13 yards; a 26-yard drive ended on downs. That leaves the three drives that ended in field goals — a 5-yard drive where the Gators gained possession at the Georgia 10, a 15-yard drive where Florida started on the UGA 43, and a 15-play, 75 yard drive where the team self-destructed inside the red zone — as the three candidates for best drive of the day.
  • Ohio wasn’t any good — they ranked 77th in the SRS last week – but even I didn’t see them losing to a previously pitiful Miami of Ohio. The Redhawks ranked 112th in the SRS last week, with its three wins coming over Massachusetts (0-8), Akron (0-8 against FBS schools), and an FCS school (Southern Illinois).
  • Oregon’s game against the Trojans lost a bit of its luster, as USC fell to Arizona, 39-36. An Arizona team, you may recall, that lost 49-0 to Oregon. Still, with Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, and Marqise Lee, you never know when USC will bring their A game. One man not to blame for the loss? Lee, who gained 16 catches for 345 yards (the fifth most in FBS history) and two scores. Last year, the Trojans went into Eugene and knocked off Oregon, 38-35.

{ 3 comments }
  • George October 28, 2012, 1:23 pm

    I have a quick query re: the SRS, as I have put together a worksheet over the weekend – do you have to tweak the SOS in any way before running any iterations (e.g. like constrain it to 0 for every team?). I think I’ve sorted the conditional averaging formulas but noted when running the iterations the oSRS, SOS and SRS don’t converge and just cycle upwards. I’m figuring you don’t adjust the MOV (except for making a home-field advantage adjustment) but do you tweak the SOS at all?

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart October 28, 2012, 5:37 pm

      Using the Neil method, no constraining needed. I do not know if that’s the case with the Mathletics model.

      Reply
      • George October 29, 2012, 4:35 pm

        Thanks – this is really helpful and suggests that my Excel formulas may be off (I was trying to do the Neil route – had seen the video) as my numbers aren’t converging at over 1000 iterations. I have Winston’s Mathletics Least Squares (and weighted LS) sorted – but would like to have a different method for rating things (I like putting a number on things) and like what the SRS has to offer.

        I noted SRS and Winston’s Least Squares have fairly similar number but like what SRS does with SOS being part of the rating. Started reading the Carl Meyer book (think SRS is derived from the Massey thesis paper of 1997 possibly – I think Neil mentioned this) and noted he had to put a constraint in to his matrix and wondered if this was the case.

        Reply

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