Week 13 NFL Power Rankings

December 5, 2013 Current Events

Nobody knows what power rankings are supposed to mean. And frankly, nobody cares. They just want to see lists. Are power rankings supposed to simply reflect records, in which case, what is the point of doing them? For example, I have cracked the code to ESPN’s power rankings: Step 1 – Rank teams in descending […]

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Checkdowns: Pre-Conference Championship Sunday Weighted SRS Ratings

January 19, 2013 Checkdowns

Presented without comment, the most current Simple Ratings, weighted for recency: “Upper” and “Lower” are the 95% confidence intervals around each estimate. Roughly speaking, this means we can be 95% confident that, say, the 49ers’ “true” SRS rating is between 3.66 and 16.80. Tweet

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Week 16 Power Rankings

December 28, 2012 Power Rankings

What’s the point of power rankings now that there is just one week left in the regular season? If you’ve asked that question, you are implicitly saying that power rankings serve a purpose earlier in the year! If you want to see the playoff picture, I laid that out earlier this week, so I’ll assume […]

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Week 15 Power Rankings

December 20, 2012 Power Rankings

With only two weeks left in the regular season, it’s time to change the format of my projected standings. At this point, we might as well just predict each of the remaining 32 games. So here goes: I’m short on time this week, so let’s move on to the weekly Power Rankings. [As always, the […]

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Week 14 Power Rankings

December 13, 2012 Power Rankings

It’s time to take Seattle seriously. On Sunday, the Seahawks had a “name your score” game, the type of matchup college football powerhouses regularly use to beef up their statistics. The Seahawks defense took over the game, posting the 10th highest fantasy performance ever, but the offense wasn’t too shabby, either. Seattle rushed for 284 […]

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Week 13 Power Rankings

December 6, 2012 Power Rankings

We’re 75% of the way through the regular season. We know the Patriots, Broncos, and Texans are elite teams in the AFC, the Ravens and Colts aren’t as good as their gaudy records, and the Bengals and Steelers will consistently be inconsistent. In the NFC, the Giants remain the benchmark for consistent inconsistency. But if […]

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Week 12 Power Rankings

November 29, 2012 Power Rankings

The contenders have emerged in both conferences. The numbers say that the Broncos, Patriots, 49ers, and Texans are legit, while there are still question marks surrounding Atlanta, Baltimore, and Chicago despite their records. What to make of the Giants? No one ever knows. Are we headed towards a rematch of Super Bowl XXIV? That year […]

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Week 11 Power Rankings – Happy Thanksgiving from Football Perspective

November 22, 2012 Power Rankings

The majority of power rankings out there have the Broncos, Texans, Patriots, Falcons, Packers, and 49ers in their top six. Each conference appears to have three elite teams, and one can justifiably rank them in just about any order. Brian Burke has Denver first, San Francisco second, and Houston third (although his algorithm leaves the […]

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Week 10 Power Rankings

November 15, 2012 Power Rankings

Jason Lisk put the Texans on top of his power rankings. Both Aaron Schatz and Brian Burke loves the Broncos. The Patriots offense looks historically great. I know what you’re thinking: wasn’t it only five weeks ago that I read somewhere that the NFC was by far the superior conference in the NFL? That still […]

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Week 9 Power Rankings

November 8, 2012 Power Rankings

Maybe it was the election, the great weekend of college football, or the fact that I had no cable and barely watched the NFL this weekend, but power rankings this week don’t generate any buzz for me. I only was able to see the two night games this week, which worked out well, as I […]

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Checkdowns: Weighted NFL SRS Ratings (through Monday 11/05/12)

November 6, 2012 Checkdowns

Here’s my weekly set of power ratings, according to a weighted version of the Simple Rating System: KEY: Talent – Regressed WPct talent for 2012; Talent = (W + 5.5) / (G + 11) PWAG – Probability of Winning Any Game Off – Offensive SRS (positive = better) Def – Defensive SRS (negative = better) […]

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Checkdowns: How Much Does Last Year’s Record Matter When Predicting This Year’s Games?

November 1, 2012 Checkdowns

In Tuesday’s post, I outlined a method of regressing a team’s record to the mean to estimate its “true winning percentage talent” (the trick is to add eleven games of .500 ball to their record, at any point in the season). In the comments, FP reader Dave wondered if we could incorporate last year’s true […]

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Week 8 Power Rankings

November 1, 2012 Power Rankings

I’d like to extend my best wishes to everyone dealing with the fallout from Sandy. I’m in my fourth location in five nights, and have lost power in my building for two days, but consider myself one of the lucky ones. This has been a tragedy for many out there, and thoughts and prayers go […]

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Week 7 Power Rankings

October 25, 2012 Power Rankings

At 6-1, Houston is sitting pretty atop the AFC. They have to be the Super Bowl favorite right now, as they’re the most likely team in either conference to wrap up the 1 seed and they won’t have to go through two very good teams to get to New Orleans. In addition, they’re also really, […]

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Checkdowns: Weighted NFL SRS Ratings (through Sunday 10/21/12)

October 22, 2012 Checkdowns

Here are the current SRS Ratings, weighted for the recency of each game, along with each team’s quarter-by-quarter Win Probability Added (WPA) so far this season: Tweet

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Checkdowns: Weighted NFL SRS Ratings (through Thursday 10/19/12)

October 19, 2012 Checkdowns

Here are the current SRS Ratings, using the recency-weighted system I described on Monday: Also, just for fun, here’s how SRS sees this weekend’s games going (with the Vegas lines and over/unders for comparison’s sake): Tweet

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Week 6 Power Rankings

October 18, 2012 Power Rankings

Jason Lisk and the wisdom of crowds say the Giants are the best team in the league; Aaron Schatz’ DVOA numbers agree. The computer operated by Brian Burke prefers Denver and Bill Barnwell’s wheel landed on Chicago. ESPN prefers the Falcons, a pick that is surely more retrodictive than predictive. Technically, I don’t do power […]

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Week 5 Power Rankings

October 11, 2012 Power Rankings

I agree with Aaron Schatz and Brian Burke: the 49ers are the best team in the league, not that such a designation holds any meaning. Last week, I had Houston as my only 13-win team, and the Texans aren’t dropping from that pedestal (and Jason Lisk still has Houston at #1). But the big mover […]

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Week 4 Power Rankings

October 4, 2012 Power Rankings

Just like last week, my #1 and #32 teams remain in the same slots. The Houston Texans continue to dominate, while the Browns are still looking for their first win. Suddenly it all makes sense, until next week. As a reminder, after the team name column, I have listed each team’s record in the second […]

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Week 3 Power Rankings

September 27, 2012 Power Rankings

Some additions to the weekly power rankings table. After the team name, I have listed each team’s record in column two and the number of wins I’m projecting each team to finish the season with in column 3 (i.e., the power rankings and the metric by which the table is sorted). The fourth column – […]

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Week 2 Power Rankings

September 20, 2012 Power Rankings

With week 2 in the books, it’s time to present updated win projections for each team. I kept half of the league’s teams at the same win total as last week, gave one additional win to one-quarter of the league, and took one win away from the remaining eight teams. This week, the 49ers move […]

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Week 1 Power Rankings

September 13, 2012 Power Rankings

In my experience, most power rankings are pretty vague about what the rankings are supposed to represent. In general, ranking systems are usually either retrodictive or predictive, meaning they’re either supposed to explain the past or predict the future. If you’re going to make power rankings, you should be clear what you’re rankings are supposed […]

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