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Week 16 Power Rankings

What’s the point of power rankings now that there is just one week left in the regular season? If you’ve asked that question, you are implicitly saying that power rankings serve a purpose earlier in the year! If you want to see the playoff picture, I laid that out earlier this week, so I’ll assume you’ll be staying on this post for the snark.

I was on the Seahawks’ bandwagon a couple of weeks earlier than most, but they’re now #1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings and third in Advanced NFL Stats’ Efficiency Rankings. Seattle is also first in Pro-Football-Reference.com’s SRS Ratings; the Seahawks are second in the NFL in points differential, behind the Patriots, but a much tougher schedule was enough to close the gap there. Now that Richard Sherman is cleared to play in the postseason, Seattle is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They may not have home field advantage in the playoffs, but they do have my Coach of the Year.

Here’s the week 17 schedule along with my projected winner:

Road Team Home TeamTimeProj Winner
Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta Falcons1:00 PMAtlanta Falcons
New York Jets@Buffalo Bills1:00 PMBuffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens@Cincinnati Bengals1:00 PMCincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans@Indianapolis Colts1:00 PMHouston Texans
Chicago Bears@Detroit Lions1:00 PMChicago Bears
Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings1:00 PMGreen Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers@New Orleans Saints1:00 PMCarolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles@New York Giants1:00 PMNew York Giants
Jacksonville Jaguars@Tennessee Titans1:00 PMTennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers1:00 PMPittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins@New England Patriots4:25 PMNew England Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos4:25 PMDenver Broncos
Oakland Raiders@San Diego Chargers4:25 PMSan Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams@Seattle Seahawks4:25 PMSeattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers4:25 PMSan Francisco 49ers
Dallas Cowboys@Washington Redskins8:20 PMWashington Redskins

That leaves us with the final week 17 standings:

Atlanta Falcons13-2141300.5001Mike Smith says the Falcons will play to win this game. I believe him.
Houston Texans12-3131410.6250The best season in Texans history will be secure with a win in Indianapolis in week 17.
Denver Broncos12-3131300.1251The best team in the AFC? With a win at home against Kansas City, the Broncos will finish the year on an 11-game win streak.
New England Patriots11-41212-10.4381A home win against the Dolphins will mark just the second time Bill Belichick's Patriots have gone undefeated in the division.
Green Bay Packers11-4121210.5000Winning in Minnesota is going to be difficult, but the Packers need a win to secure a much-needed bye.
San Francisco 49ers10-4-111.511.510.3131The 49ers can salvage a strong season by winning at home against Arizona; a loss and the team is in a full-fledged free fall.
Seattle Seahawks10-5111100.4061A Super Bowl championship? The coach of the year? The rookie of the year? Seattle might end up with all three in a couple of months.
Chicago Bears9-6101000.2500The Bears rooting for the Packers is one of the weirder twists of week 17.
Indianapolis Colts10-5101000.8751A magnificent season in Indianapolis is capped by the return of Chuck Pagano this weekend.
Baltimore Ravens10-5109-10.5630The Ravens plugged the leak against the Giants, but week 17 against the Bengals will be more like a pre-season game.
Washington Redskins9-610900.6251The Redskins entered the year with the least hype in the NFC East; they may end the year with the division crown.
Cincinnati Bengals9-610910.5631In a meaningless game, I'll take the home team. A.J. Green and Geno Atkins will give the Patriots trouble in round 1.
New York Giants8-791000.2501The only team the last three years to start 6-2 and miss the playoffs? The 2010 Giants. The 2012 Giants may soon join them.
Minnesota Vikings9-69810.7501I doubt they can do it, but if they beat the Packers and Texans in back-to-back weeks, they will have earned their playoff berth.
Dallas Cowboys8-781010.5630Tony Romo is closing in on 5,000 yards, Jason Witten set the single-season record for catches by a tight end, DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer have double digit sacks, and the Cowboys still need to win in Washington to make the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers7-88900.3131It's 2006 and 2009 all over again for the Steelers. Another playoff absence that leaves more questions than answers for Pittsburgh.
St. Louis Rams7-7-17.56.5-10.6880Sam Bradford and the passing game haven't improved significantly, but the defense is above-average. Add some weapons and this team can compete in 2013.
Miami Dolphins7-87700.7500Cameron Wake is having the best season by a player you don't hear about.
Carolina Panthers6-97710.3750Cam Newton ranks 1st in yards per completion, 2nd in Y/A, 6th in NY/A, and 10th in NY/A this year. He's also added over 700 rushing yards.
San Diego Chargers6-976-10.2501In sixteen seasons as head coach, Norv Turner has made the playoffs just four times.
New Orleans Saints7-87600.4381The Saints have allowed the most yards of any team through 15 games in NFL history; they're only 282 yards allowed from the record.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6-96810.8130Can the Bucs end the season first in rushing yards allowed and last in passing yards allowed?
New York Jets6-967-10.3750Just. End. The. Season.
Buffalo Bills5-106600.4381C.J. Spiller is closing in on the highest YPC average of any player with 1200 yards in league history.
Tennessee Titans5-106610.1251Chris Johnson joined Eddie George and Earl Campbell as just the 7th running back with 6800 rushing yards in his first five seasons.
Cleveland Browns5-1055-10.5630It's been a typical rookie season for Brandon Weeden, which just looks bad in 2012. A difficult decision faces Cleveland management in the offseason.
Arizona Cardinals5-105510.7190From Kevin Kolb to John Skelton to Ryan Lindley to Brian Hoyer. In case you didn't figure it out, it's been a rough year in the desert.
Detroit Lions4-1144-10.6251Calvin Johnson goes for 2,000 yards and Matt Stafford goes for 700 pass attempts as the Lions try to knock the Bears out of the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles4-1144-10.6250The Andy Reid era is going to go out with a whimper, with the Eagles losing 11 of their final 12 games.
Oakland Raiders4-114400.3750Terrelle Pryor or Matt Leinart? This is what the Raiders-Chargers rivalry has come to.
Jacksonville Jaguars2-1322-10.3750It's been a rough season in Jacksonville, but the Jaguars did put a scare into the Patriots on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs2-1322-10.8130The Chiefs are one loss away from securing the #1 pick. I think Peyton Manning will make sure of that.
  • Richie

    Teams that won the final 10 games of the regular season:
    09 – SD (lost 1st playoff game, 0-1)
    07 – NE (lost Super Bowl, 2-1)
    06 – SD (lost first round, 0-1)
    04 – Pit (lost conf champiionship, 1-1)
    03 – NE (won Super Bowl, 3-0)
    93 – Hou (lost first round, 0-1)
    76 – Oak (won Super Bowl, 3-0)
    72 – Mia (won Super Bowl, 3-0)
    67 – Oak (lost Super Bowl, 1-1)
    51 – Cle (lost championship, 0-1)
    48 – Cle (won AAFC championship, 1-0)
    48 – Crd (lost championship, 0-1)
    35 – Chi (lost championship, 0-1)

    Combined postseason record, 14-9.

  • Richie

    here are the Super Bowl championship winning streaks to end season (including playoffs):
    11 – NYG – 6 wins
    10 – GB – 6
    09 – NO – 3
    08 – Pit – 4
    07 – NYG – 4
    06 – Ind – 5
    05 – Pit – 8
    04 – NE – 5
    03 – NE – 15
    02 – TB – 4
    01 – NE – 9
    00 – Bal – 11
    99 – SL – 3
    98 – Den – 4
    97 – Den – 5
    96 – GB – 8
    95 – Dal – 5
    94 – SF – 3
    93 – Dal – 8
    92 – Dal -5
    91 – Was – 3
    90 – NYG – 5
    89: SF-8
    88: SF-3
    87: WAS-4
    86: NYG-12
    85: CHI-6
    84: SF-12
    83: LAR-4
    82: WAS-8
    81: SF-8
    80: OAK-6
    79: PIT-4
    78: PIT-8
    77: DAL-7
    76: OAK-13
    75: PIT-3
    74: PIT-5
    73: MIA-4
    72: MIA-17
    71: DAL-10
    70: BAL-7
    69: KC-3
    68: NYJ-6
    67: GB-3
    66: GB-7

    7/46 SB winning teams have won 10+ consecutive games en route to championship.