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Another way to do team rankings

Wonders what good quarterback play looks like

Wonders what good quarterback play looks like.

The Jets lost by 40 points to the Bengals in Cincinnati; adjust for home field, and that is still a 37-point adjusted margin of victory, the best single game for the Bengals this year.

New York lost by 23 in Buffalo this weekend; that 20-point adjusted MOV was the best single game for the Bills this year.

Back in week four, the Jets lost by 25 in Tennessee, and as you can probably guess, that is the best single game for the Titans this year.

And in week six, at home against the Steelers, New York lost by 13, and that 16-point adjusted MOV was the top performance for Pittsburgh this year.

That’s pretty bad, of course. Four different teams had their best games of the season against the Jets. The only team that’s been worse is the Jaguars, who have seen five different opponents (San Francisco, San Diego, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Arizona) post their best games against Jacksonville. But the Jets were close to matching the Jaguars: Tampa Bay’s best game of the year came on Sunday against Atlanta, making the Bucs’ second best performance in 2013 the game against the Jets in week 1.1

If we do this for every team, we can get a sense of the best/worst teams in the league. You can read some fine print here2, or just take a look at the rankings. Lower is better, as you get a 1 point for producing the worst game by your opponent all year, and 10 points for being the victim of your opponent’s best game.

Rk
Loser/tie
Record
Pts
1Denver Broncos9-12.6
2New Orleans Saints8-23.3
3Carolina Panthers6-33.6
4San Francisco 49ers6-43.7
5Kansas City Chiefs9-13.7
6Seattle Seahawks10-13.7
7New England Patriots7-24
8Cincinnati Bengals7-44.2
9Dallas Cowboys5-54.6
10Indianapolis Colts7-34.6
11Green Bay Packers5-54.7
12Detroit Lions6-45
13Chicago Bears6-45.3
14Baltimore Ravens4-65.4
15Arizona Cardinals6-45.4
16Philadelphia Eagles6-55.6
17Tennessee Titans4-65.6
18San Diego Chargers4-66.1
19St. Louis Rams4-66.1
20Cleveland Browns4-66.2
21Tampa Bay Buccaneers2-86.3
22Miami Dolphins5-56.3
23Buffalo Bills4-76.3
24Houston Texans2-86.5
25New York Giants4-66.6
26Oakland Raiders4-66.6
27Washington Redskins3-76.7
28Pittsburgh Steelers4-66.8
29New York Jets5-56.9
30Minnesota Vikings2-87.2
31Atlanta Falcons2-87.6
32Jacksonville Jaguars1-98.5

The Jets are 31st in points differential, although some have argued that this is the result of “outlier” games like the 40-point drubbing against the Bengals. This method smooths out outlier games, and brings New York all the way up to … 29th.

Another interesting result: seeing 6-4 SF essentially equal to 9-1 Kansas City and 10-1 Seattle. How does that happen? The 49ers had ugly games against Seattle and Indianapolis, receiving 8.2 points for the Seattle game and 9 for the Indianapolis game. But the 49ers received 1 point for games against the Titans and Rams, 1.5 points for the blowout against Houston, 2 points for the blowout against Jacksonville, 2.5 points for the three-point road loss to the Saints, 3 points for the 12-point win over Arizona, 4 points for the 6-point home win against the Packers, and 4.4 points for losing by one at home to the Panthers. That’s pretty good. In other words, close losses to New Orleans and Carolina don’t kill the 49ers.

The Chiefs aren’t even penalized for the Broncos game: that was the 3rd best showing against Denver of any team this season. But a 1-point home win against Houston (8 points), a 6-point home win against Cleveland (6), and a 1-point home win against Dallas (6) bring down the average.

As for Seattle, winning by just 3 at home against Tampa Bay (7.5), winning by only three in Houston (5.5), and losing to the Colts (5.5) drop down the rating. Narrow wins over the Rams (5) and Titans (5) don’t help much, either. Essentially, this formula says the 49ers get more credit for losing close games to Carolina and New Orleans than the Seahawks do for barely beating the Rams and Texans. I’ll leave it to the reader to decide if that is desirable.

The table below lists every game this year. Here’s how to read it: In week 4, Denver was home against Philadelphia, and won 52-20. The Broncos therefore get credit for an adjusted margin of victory of 29 points, which is the #1 aMOV against the Eagles this season. That gives Denver 0.9 points for that game, a pro-rated number since Philadelphia has played 11 games.

Week
Team
H/R
Opp
PF
PA
aMOV
Rank
Pts
4Denver BroncosPhiladelphia Eagles52202910.9
8New Orleans SaintsBuffalo Bills35171510.9
4Cleveland BrownsCincinnati Bengals176810.9
5Indianapolis ColtsSeattle Seahawks3428310.9
8Cincinnati BengalsNew York Jets4993711
4Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars3733711
3Carolina PanthersNew York Giants3803511
10St. Louis Rams@Indianapolis Colts3883311
9Philadelphia Eagles@Oakland Raiders49203211
10New Orleans SaintsDallas Cowboys49172911
6Carolina Panthers@Minnesota Vikings35102811
4San Francisco 49ers@St. Louis Rams35112711
10Seattle Seahawks@Atlanta Falcons33102611
8Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers31132111
8Denver BroncosWashington Redskins45212111
9New England PatriotsPittsburgh Steelers55312111
3New Orleans SaintsArizona Cardinals3172111
1Denver BroncosBaltimore Ravens49271911
11Cincinnati BengalsCleveland Browns41201811
4New Orleans SaintsMiami Dolphins38171811
10Philadelphia Eagles@Green Bay Packers27131711
7San Francisco 49ers@Tennessee Titans31171711
10Denver Broncos@San Diego Chargers28201111
5New Orleans Saints@Chicago Bears26181111
5Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions2291011
11Denver BroncosKansas City Chiefs2717711
7Indianapolis ColtsDenver Broncos3933311
9New York JetsNew Orleans Saints2620311
5Arizona CardinalsCarolina Panthers2261311.1
5Cincinnati BengalsNew England Patriots136411.1
5San Francisco 49ersHouston Texans343281.51.5
6St. Louis Rams@Houston Texans3813281.51.5
3Indianapolis Colts@San Francisco 49ers277231.51.5
2Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ers293231.51.5
7Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles1731721.8
9Kansas City Chiefs@Buffalo Bills23131321.8
9Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Seattle Seahawks2427021.8
8San Francisco 49ersNJacksonville Jaguars42103222
4Tennessee TitansNew York Jets38132222
9Carolina PanthersAtlanta Falcons34102122
3Dallas CowboysSt. Louis Rams3172122
3Chicago Bears@Pittsburgh Steelers40232022
11Seattle SeahawksMinnesota Vikings41201822
6Detroit Lions@Cleveland Browns31171722
3New England PatriotsTampa Bay Buccaneers2331722
2Green Bay PackersWashington Redskins38201522
7Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals34221522
6Kansas City ChiefsOakland Raiders2471422
5Kansas City Chiefs@Tennessee Titans26171222
11New York GiantsGreen Bay Packers27131122
8New England PatriotsMiami Dolphins2717722
5Oakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers2717722
11Pittsburgh SteelersDetroit Lions3727722
6Green Bay Packers@Baltimore Ravens1917522
5Dallas CowboysDenver Broncos4851-622
1Seattle Seahawks@Carolina Panthers127822.2
10Baltimore RavensCincinnati Bengals201702.52.3
1Chicago BearsCincinnati Bengals242102.52.3
2Denver Broncos@New York Giants4123212.52.5
4Kansas City ChiefsNew York Giants317212.52.5
2Miami Dolphins@Indianapolis Colts242072.52.5
6San Diego ChargersIndianapolis Colts19972.52.5
5Denver Broncos@Dallas Cowboys514862.52.5
4San Diego ChargersDallas Cowboys302162.52.5
4Detroit LionsChicago Bears403252.52.5
10Detroit Lions@Chicago Bears211952.52.5
2Dallas Cowboys@Kansas City Chiefs161722.52.5
7Houston Texans@Kansas City Chiefs161722.52.5
6New England PatriotsNew Orleans Saints302702.52.5
11San Francisco 49ers@New Orleans Saints202302.52.5
3Kansas City Chiefs@Philadelphia Eagles26161332.7
6Tennessee Titans@Seattle Seahawks1320-432.7
1Kansas City Chiefs@Jacksonville Jaguars2822933
11Buffalo BillsNew York Jets37142033
3Baltimore RavensHouston Texans3091833
8Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings44311633
1Miami Dolphins@Cleveland Browns23101633
6Philadelphia Eagles@Tampa Bay Buccaneers31201433
7Carolina PanthersSt. Louis Rams30151233
6Dallas CowboysWashington Redskins31161233
8Arizona CardinalsAtlanta Falcons27131133
9Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers27201033
1Tennessee Titans@Pittsburgh Steelers1691033
6San Francisco 49ersArizona Cardinals3220933
5Baltimore Ravens@Miami Dolphins2623633
7Cincinnati Bengals@Detroit Lions2724633
1Houston Texans@San Diego Chargers3128633
11Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans3027633
10Carolina Panthers@San Francisco 49ers109433
9Cleveland BrownsBaltimore Ravens2418333
11Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos1727-733
5Cleveland BrownsBuffalo Bills3724103.53.2
10Pittsburgh SteelersBuffalo Bills2310103.53.2
6New Orleans Saints@New England Patriots2730033.3
7New York JetsNew England Patriots3027033.3
2New York Jets@New England Patriots1013033.3
2Buffalo BillsCarolina Panthers2423-233.3
3Denver BroncosOakland Raiders3721133.53.5
4Washington Redskins@Oakland Raiders2414133.53.5
8New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles1571143.6
4Houston TexansSeattle Seahawks2023-643.6
3Seattle SeahawksJacksonville Jaguars45172544
5Philadelphia Eagles@New York Giants36211844
6Pittsburgh Steelers@New York Jets1961644
7Green Bay PackersCleveland Browns31131544
7New York GiantsMinnesota Vikings2371344
3Detroit Lions@Washington Redskins27201044
9Tennessee Titans@St. Louis Rams28211044
11Oakland Raiders@Houston Texans2823844
4Arizona Cardinals@Tampa Bay Buccaneers1310644
7Buffalo Bills@Miami Dolphins2321544
10Jacksonville Jaguars@Tennessee Titans2927544
1San Francisco 49ersGreen Bay Packers3428344
9Washington RedskinsSan Diego Chargers3024344
8Dallas Cowboys@Detroit Lions3031244
2Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears3031244
11New Orleans SaintsSan Francisco 49ers2320044
9Minnesota Vikings@Dallas Cowboys2327-144
1Oakland Raiders@Indianapolis Colts1721-144
1Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans Saints1723-344
8Cleveland Browns@Kansas City Chiefs1723-344
10San Diego ChargersDenver Broncos2028-1144
3Green Bay Packers@Cincinnati Bengals3034-14.54.1
9Miami DolphinsCincinnati Bengals2220-14.54.1
10San Francisco 49ersCarolina Panthers910-444.4
4New England Patriots@Atlanta Falcons3023104.54.5
11Tampa Bay BuccaneersAtlanta Falcons4128104.54.5
2Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh Steelers201074.54.5
4Minnesota VikingsNPittsburgh Steelers342774.54.5
10Houston Texans@Arizona Cardinals242704.54.5
1St. Louis RamsArizona Cardinals272404.54.5
6Cincinnati Bengals@Buffalo Bills2724654.5
2San Diego Chargers@Philadelphia Eagles3330654.5
7San Diego Chargers@Jacksonville Jaguars2462155
1Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Redskins3327955
8Seattle Seahawks@St. Louis Rams149855
2Baltimore RavensCleveland Browns146555
6Seattle SeahawksTennessee Titans2013455
6Chicago BearsNew York Giants2721355
1Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New York Jets1718255
2Arizona CardinalsDetroit Lions2521155
9Cincinnati Bengals@Miami Dolphins2022155
3Cincinnati BengalsGreen Bay Packers3430155
11Miami DolphinsSan Diego Chargers2016155
7Washington RedskinsChicago Bears4541155
1Green Bay Packers@San Francisco 49ers2834-355
2Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans Saints1416-555
1Carolina PanthersSeattle Seahawks712-85.55
8St. Louis RamsSeattle Seahawks914-85.55
5Tennessee TitansKansas City Chiefs1726-1255
1New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills2321565.5
5New England Patriots@Cincinnati Bengals613-465.5
11Washington Redskins@Philadelphia Eagles1624-565.5
3Cleveland Browns@Minnesota Vikings312775.55.5
1Detroit LionsMinnesota Vikings342475.55.5
9Indianapolis Colts@Houston Texans272465.55.5
4Seattle Seahawks@Houston Texans232065.55.5
7Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers312355.55.5
2New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay Buccaneers161455.55.5
1Indianapolis ColtsOakland Raiders211715.55.5
10New York GiantsOakland Raiders242015.55.5
4Buffalo BillsBaltimore Ravens232005.55.5
11Chicago BearsBaltimore Ravens232005.55.5
10Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens172005.55.5
7Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore Ravens191605.55.5
7Denver Broncos@Indianapolis Colts3339-35.55.5
5Seattle Seahawks@Indianapolis Colts2834-35.55.5
6Jacksonville Jaguars@Denver Broncos1935-135.55.5
3Oakland Raiders@Denver Broncos2137-135.55.5
1Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots2123-555.6
7St. Louis Rams@Carolina Panthers1530-1255.6
11Arizona Cardinals@Jacksonville Jaguars27141666
5New York Jets@Atlanta Falcons3028566
11Philadelphia EaglesWashington Redskins2416566
2Atlanta FalconsSt. Louis Rams3124466
2Houston TexansTennessee Titans3024366
8Kansas City ChiefsCleveland Browns2317366
1Dallas CowboysNew York Giants3631266
10Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiami Dolphins2219066
3Tennessee TitansSan Diego Chargers2017066
2Detroit Lions@Arizona Cardinals2125-166
8Detroit LionsDallas Cowboys3130-266
2Kansas City ChiefsDallas Cowboys1716-266
1New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys3136-266
6Baltimore RavensGreen Bay Packers1719-566
6Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers2032-966
5Chicago BearsNew Orleans Saints1826-1166
3New York JetsBuffalo Bills2720476.4
1Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia Eagles2733-976.4
7Arizona CardinalsSeattle Seahawks2234-1576.4
7Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh Steelers161906.56.5
11Baltimore Ravens@Chicago Bears202306.56.5
1Cincinnati Bengals@Chicago Bears212406.56.5
2New England PatriotsNew York Jets131006.56.5
7New England Patriots@New York Jets273006.56.5
8Oakland RaidersPittsburgh Steelers211806.56.5
4Chicago Bears@Detroit Lions3240-56.56.5
10Chicago BearsDetroit Lions1921-56.56.5
9Buffalo BillsKansas City Chiefs1323-136.56.5
3Philadelphia EaglesKansas City Chiefs1626-136.56.5
8Miami Dolphins@New England Patriots1727-766.7
6Buffalo BillsCincinnati Bengals2427-67.56.8
7Detroit LionsCincinnati Bengals2427-67.56.8
6Denver BroncosJacksonville Jaguars35191377
10Minnesota VikingsWashington Redskins3427477
1New Orleans SaintsAtlanta Falcons2317377
9Dallas CowboysMinnesota Vikings2723177
1Arizona Cardinals@St. Louis Rams2427077
10Arizona CardinalsHouston Texans2724077
8Pittsburgh Steelers@Oakland Raiders1821077
3San Diego Chargers@Tennessee Titans1720077
10Oakland Raiders@New York Giants2024-177
9Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland Browns1824-377
4Tampa Bay BuccaneersArizona Cardinals1013-677
5Detroit Lions@Green Bay Packers922-1077
8Buffalo Bills@New Orleans Saints1735-1577
7Tennessee TitansSan Francisco 49ers1731-1777
1Baltimore Ravens@Denver Broncos2749-1977
9Atlanta Falcons@Carolina Panthers1034-216.57.2
8Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers1331-216.57.2
2Carolina Panthers@Buffalo Bills2324287.3
6Tampa Bay BuccaneersPhiladelphia Eagles2031-1487.3
11Minnesota Vikings@Seattle Seahawks2041-1887.3
10Miami Dolphins@Tampa Bay Buccaneers192207.57.5
9Seattle SeahawksTampa Bay Buccaneers272407.57.5
3Atlanta Falcons@Miami Dolphins2327-17.57.5
11San Diego Chargers@Miami Dolphins1620-17.57.5
4Dallas Cowboys@San Diego Chargers2130-67.57.5
9Houston TexansIndianapolis Colts2427-67.57.5
2Philadelphia EaglesSan Diego Chargers3033-67.57.5
11Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts2730-67.57.5
4Atlanta FalconsNew England Patriots2330-1077.8
5St. Louis RamsJacksonville Jaguars34201188
3Miami DolphinsAtlanta Falcons2723188
7Chicago Bears@Washington Redskins4145-188
2Chicago BearsMinnesota Vikings3130-288
7Kansas City ChiefsHouston Texans1716-288
9New Orleans Saints@New York Jets2026-388
6New York Giants@Chicago Bears2127-388
2Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens614-588
11Detroit Lions@Pittsburgh Steelers2737-788
1Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions2434-788
3Minnesota VikingsCleveland Browns2731-788
8Atlanta Falcons@Arizona Cardinals1327-1188
5Jacksonville Jaguars@St. Louis Rams2034-1188
6Washington Redskins@Dallas Cowboys1631-1288
6Oakland Raiders@Kansas City Chiefs724-1488
4Miami Dolphins@New Orleans Saints1738-1888
4St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ers1135-2788
4Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills2023098.2
2Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati Bengals1020-798.2
10Green Bay PackersPhiladelphia Eagles1327-1798.2
2San Francisco 49ers@Seattle Seahawks329-2398.2
2Jacksonville Jaguars@Oakland Raiders919-78.58.5
5San Diego Chargers@Oakland Raiders1727-78.58.5
1Pittsburgh SteelersTennessee Titans916-108.58.5
9St. Louis RamsTennessee Titans2128-108.58.5
11Green Bay Packers@New York Giants1327-118.58.5
8Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants715-118.58.5
7Cleveland Browns@Green Bay Packers1331-158.58.5
2Washington Redskins@Green Bay Packers2038-158.58.5
2New York GiantsDenver Broncos2341-218.58.5
8Washington Redskins@Denver Broncos2145-218.58.5
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New England Patriots323-1788.9
6Minnesota VikingsCarolina Panthers1035-2888.9
2Oakland RaidersJacksonville Jaguars199799
1New York JetsTampa Bay Buccaneers1817-299
9San Diego Chargers@Washington Redskins2430-399
2Tennessee Titans@Houston Texans2430-399
3Buffalo Bills@New York Jets2027-499
2St. Louis Rams@Atlanta Falcons2431-499
10Washington Redskins@Minnesota Vikings2734-499
5Miami DolphinsBaltimore Ravens2326-699
6Indianapolis Colts@San Diego Chargers919-799
2Indianapolis ColtsMiami Dolphins2024-799
4Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland Browns617-899
10Buffalo Bills@Pittsburgh Steelers1023-1099
9Green Bay PackersChicago Bears2027-1099
3Washington RedskinsDetroit Lions2027-1099
5Carolina Panthers@Arizona Cardinals622-1399
7Philadelphia EaglesDallas Cowboys317-1799
3Arizona Cardinals@New Orleans Saints731-2199
4New York Giants@Kansas City Chiefs731-2199
3San Francisco 49ersIndianapolis Colts727-2399
6Houston TexansSt. Louis Rams1338-2899
5Houston Texans@San Francisco 49ers334-2899
7Miami DolphinsBuffalo Bills2123-5109.1
11Cleveland Browns@Cincinnati Bengals2041-18109.1
5New York GiantsPhiladelphia Eagles2136-18109.1
3Jacksonville Jaguars@Seattle Seahawks1745-25109.1
5Atlanta FalconsNew York Jets2830-51010
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta Falcons2331-51010
10Tennessee TitansJacksonville Jaguars2729-51010
1San Diego ChargersHouston Texans2831-61010
4Pittsburgh SteelersNMinnesota Vikings2734-71010
11Houston TexansOakland Raiders2328-81010
11Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers2841-101010
5Buffalo Bills@Cleveland Browns2437-101010
7Minnesota Vikings@New York Giants723-131010
4Oakland RaidersWashington Redskins1424-131010
1Cleveland BrownsMiami Dolphins1023-161010
11Jacksonville JaguarsArizona Cardinals1427-161010
8Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay Packers3144-161010
6New York JetsPittsburgh Steelers619-161010
6Cleveland BrownsDetroit Lions1731-171010
3Houston Texans@Baltimore Ravens930-181010
11New York Jets@Buffalo Bills1437-201110
3Pittsburgh SteelersChicago Bears2340-201010
7Jacksonville JaguarsSan Diego Chargers624-211010
9Pittsburgh Steelers@New England Patriots3155-21910
3St. Louis Rams@Dallas Cowboys731-211010
4New York Jets@Tennessee Titans1338-221010
10Atlanta FalconsSeattle Seahawks1033-261110
10Dallas Cowboys@New Orleans Saints1749-291010
1Jacksonville JaguarsKansas City Chiefs228-291010
4Philadelphia Eagles@Denver Broncos2052-291010
8Jacksonville JaguarsNSan Francisco 49ers1042-321010
9Oakland RaidersPhiladelphia Eagles2049-321110
10Indianapolis ColtsSt. Louis Rams838-331010
3New York Giants@Carolina Panthers038-35910
4Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis Colts337-371010
8New York Jets@Cincinnati Bengals949-371110
  1. How can the 2-8 Bucs have had only one game better than their loss to the Jets? Because Tampa Bay lost in New York by 1, which is an adjusted MOV of +2, while their home win against Miami of 3 points gets an adjusted MOV of 0. []
  2. 26 teams have played 10 games, but the Bills, Eagles, Seahawks, and Bengals have yet to have their bye. In addition, the Panthers and Patriots have only played 9 games as of the date of this post. To account for that, I’ve scaled all games against those six teams on a 1-to-10 scale. So the Jets get only 10 points for the games against Cincinnati and Buffalo, but the Jets get 3.33 points instead of 3 for the two games against New England. That brings up one other note: the Jets had an adjusted MOV of 0 in both games against New England, as did the Saints. The Patriots worst game was against Cincinnati, so the second-worst game was a three-way tie between the two Jets games and the New Orleans game. Each of those games gets a 3 (then pro-rated to 3.33), since that is the average rank. []

{ 10 comments… add one }

  • Nate November 19, 2013, 9:51 am

    Considering that relatively large role that luck plays in football, it seems like it might make more sense to have some kind of point differential metric than to just put the games in order. For example, it seems like Carolina’s loss to Arizona is a bit of an outlier, and Jacksonville’s 2 point victory on the road when they’ve lost by double digits every other game…

    Looking at the chart, this metric seems to overrate the 49ers and the Cowboys a bit.

    • Chase Stuart November 19, 2013, 11:56 am

      I’m not sure I follow you. How would a point differential model treat the Panthers or Titans loss any better?

      • Nate November 19, 2013, 8:22 pm

        The Jaguars have a total point differential of -189 on 5 home games, and 5 away games. So, we can say that ‘par’ against them is to win by 19 points. If we look at their opponents scores vs the average against Jacksonville we get:

        KC: 8.5
        OAK: -10.5
        SEA: 7.5
        IND: 16.5
        STL: -6.5
        DEN: -4.5
        SD: 0.5
        SF: 14.5
        TEN: -22.5
        ARI: -4.5
        

        The Tennessee score is 10 points worse than everyone else’s.

  • Ty November 19, 2013, 2:21 pm

    Have you thought about taking away defensive scores and special team TDs? Those aren’t as predictive when it comes to how good a team is at scoring. Just a thought…

    • CH November 20, 2013, 12:56 pm

      I this was an offensive ranking I’d agree, but a team with a reliable defense or special teams unit has to be accounted for in an overall ranking.

      Just looking at a list of the top offenses by yardage or scoring shows how much a defense or ST can affect a team’s overall rank. Half of the top 10 offenses don’t even have winning records. Scoring looks better for teh top teams, but even there, half of the divison leaders are nowhere near the top in scoring.

  • Phil November 23, 2013, 12:00 pm

    are the points an average points? if you get 10 points for being the victim of your opponents best game, how could the team with the most points have fewer than 10 points?

    • Chase Stuart November 23, 2013, 12:13 pm

      Because that opponent had 11 games.

  • JayGo November 24, 2013, 11:47 am

    Sorry, don’t buy the analysis. Not saying at all that the Jets are world-beaters, but this system marginalizes close wins and wins over teams that are heavily favored. Like it or not, Jets go into play later today with a 5-5 record meaning they won 5 games. If all you do is look at the losses and emphasize the bad ones, of course they’re at the bottom of the list. Where do you account for their wins over your #2 Saints and your #7 Pats? Jets win over Saints was at least equally impactful as their loss the week before to the Bengals. Can’t just focus on the low lows without taking into account the high highs IMHO.

    • Chase Stuart November 24, 2013, 11:59 am

      The Jets get a huge bump for the Saints win, and large bumps for both games against the Patriots, as explained in the post.

    • James November 26, 2013, 11:39 am

      JayGo, how do you feel about your post after Sunday’s game?

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