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Week 12 College Football SRS Ratings: Auburn Stays Alive

Entering week 12, there were 7 teams with legitimate paths to the national championship. The four undefeated teams came in with cupcake games, while two of the three one-loss teams had tough challenges. So what happened?

  • Alabama was a 23-point favorite at Mississippi State (53rd in the week 11 SRS ratings). It wasn’t pretty, but the Crimson Tide left Starkville with a 20-7 win.
  • Florida State also simply needs to win out, and the Seminoles hosted Syracuse (69). FSU was a 37.5-point favorite, and the game wasn’t even that close. After one quarter, Jameis Winston was 10 for 10 for 170-yards, and the Seminoles were up 28-0, en route to a 59-3 win. That was the largest win of the week, and gives FSU four of the top nine single-game SRS scores of the season.
  • Behind the undefeated behemoths of the SEC and ACC are undefeated teams in two other major conferences: the Big 10 and Big 12. Ohio State was a 33.5-point favorite in Illinois (#74), while Baylor was a 27.5 point favorite against Texas Tech (#41) in Arlington. Ohio State jumped out to a 28-0 lead against Illinois, and won 60-35, but the game got a little close in the middle. It was only 35-21 in the third quarter, and 44-28 in the 4th, but Carlos Hyde and Braxton Miller (combined 40 carries for 430 yards and 5 touchdowns) were too much for the Illini to handle.
  • Baylor fell behind 14-0 early, but still managed to cover the spread after winning 63-34. After the hot start from the Red Raiders, the Bears scored 8 touchdowns in the next 36 minutes of game time. Quarterback Bryce Petty “struggled” in this game, which means he only completed 17 of 31 passes, but still picked up 335 yards and three touchdowns (to go along with two rushing scores). So far, the Bears have been up to the challenge as the meat of the schedule arrived in November, although the toughest test comes next week in Stillwater. The crazy part is that if it wasn’t for West Virginia, this Oklahoma State-Baylor game would be as hyped as any Big 12 game in recent memory: two explosive offenses, two undefeated teams, a B12 title and a possible BCSNCG berth on the line.
  • Three one loss teams were also knocking on the door. Stanford had the hardest SOS through 11 weeks of any team with no more than one loss, and the Cardinal owned the best win (as measured purely by SOS) of any team in the country. Stanford traveled to Los Angeles to face a USC team (#20) that had gone 4-1 since interim head coach Ed Orgeron took over for Lane Kiffin. Stanford was a 3.5-point favorite over the Trojans, but a strong fourth quarter gave USC the win. Kevin Hogan threw two late interceptions, and kicker Andre Heidari hit a 47-yarder in the final minute, completing the upset for Coach O and the Trojans. We can officially rule Stanford out of the BCS race, and absent any upsets, pencil in Oregon-Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
  • Two one-loss SEC teams entered week 12 with quasi control-their-own-destiny fates. Missouri and Auburn know that winning out means an SEC championship and a win over Alabama. No one really knows if that would be enough to vault them into the BCS National Championship Game, but for idle MIZZOU, the debate will have to wait another week (the bye week comes at an opportune time, with Ole Miss and Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M coming up the next two weeks).
  • Auburn was a three-point home favorite against Georgia (#25), and got off to a hot start, outgaining Georgia 149 to 4 and grabbing a 10-0 lead after the first quarter. With 10 minutes left, the Tigers led 37-20, but three touchdowns in eight minutes — the last on a run by Aaron Murray on 4th-and-goal that just barely (if at all) got in — gave Georgia a 38-37 lead. All looked lost, until on 4th and 18, Nick Marshall threw a 73-yard touchdown to Ricardo Louis on the play of the year.

It didn’t take the straightest route, but after week 12, the national picture barely changed. The Iron Bowl in two weeks will be the de facto SEC West Championship Game, but more importantly it could be a quarterfinal matchup for the national title. The winner of Alabama/Auburn goes to the SEC Championship Game, which — if Missouri wins out — may be a de facto semifinal game. Whether a one-loss Auburn/Missouri gets in over an undefeated Baylor or Ohio State is tough to say, of course, although both of those teams could have a loss by then. And don’t worry: if either set of Tigers can upset Alabama, we will surely hear about how dominant the SEC is, which is very hard to argue.
In other week 12 action, Central Florida nearly lost to Temple, which is Temple. The Knights launched an incredible comeback, highlighted by an incredible touchdown catch by J.J. Worton on a Blake Bortles pass. Had UCF lost, it would have gone down as the third biggest upset of the year (by SRS standards), behind the Virginia victory over BYU and the inexplicable West Virginia upset over Oklahoma State. The third biggest upset? Idaho over … Temple. Which means that a team that is almost certainly going to play in a BCS Bowl game nearly lost to a team that lost to Idaho. Of course, Idaho faces Florida State next week, so watch out Seminoles.

Duke beat Miami 48-30, which means the Blue Devils now are the in the driver’s seat in the ACC Coastal division. Quarterback Brandon Connette rushed for four touchdowns, leading the team to its fifth straight win. Duke has a terrible Wake Forest next week, which means North Carolina is the only thing that stands between a Florida State/Duke ACC Championship Game.

Without further ado, the SRS ratings through twelve weeks. As a reminder, you can read about the methodology here. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game.

Rk
Team
Conf
Conf Rk
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
REC
1Florida StACC11032.236.768.810-0
2BaylorB121932.634.166.79-0
3OregonP121102638649-1
4AlabamaSEC11024.337.962.110-0
5Arizona StP1221014.244.658.88-2
6WisconsinB1011020.137.357.48-2
7Ohio StateB1021024.432.957.310-0
8MissouriSEC21018.93856.99-1
9StanfordP123109.946.656.58-2
10ClemsonACC21016.139.155.29-1
11Oklahoma StB1221019.635.254.89-1
12AuburnSEC31115.237.85310-1
13Texas A&MSEC41014.63852.68-2
14UCLAP1241011.940.552.48-2
15WashingtonP125109.242.651.76-4
16LSUSEC51012.43951.47-3
17Brigham YoungIND11011.34051.27-3
18Southern CalP126117.543.350.98-3
19South CarolinaSEC6109.241.550.78-2
20Kansas StB123108.240.949.16-4
21LouisvilleAAC11021.326.948.29-1
22GeorgiaSEC7104.14448.16-4
23Michigan StB1031015.132.747.89-1
24UtahP127100.147.547.64-6
25Georgia TechACC31083946.96-4
26ArizonaP128108.838.146.96-4
27Oregon StP129106.340.246.56-4
28OklahomaB124109.137.246.38-2
29MississippiSEC8107.637.845.37-3
30Boise StMWC11012.532.845.27-3
31Central FloridaAAC2913.631.545.18-1
32Utah StMWC21012.63244.66-4
33Notre DameIND2105.638.944.57-3
34Virginia TechACC4114.240.244.37-4
35TexasB125105.33944.37-3
36DukeACC51010.233.443.68-2
37Northern IllinoisMAC11018.824.743.410-0
38IowaB104105.937.543.46-4
39HoustonAAC31010.932.243.17-3
40Miami FLACC6106.436.542.97-3
41MichiganB10510834.742.77-3
42FloridaSEC910-0.242.842.64-6
43Fresno StMWC3915.227.342.49-0
44Texas TechB126115.337.142.47-4
45East CarolinaCUSA11017.125.342.48-2
46North CarolinaACC7102.539.742.25-5
47Washington StP121010-1.543.241.75-5
48Mississippi StSEC1010-1.642.6414-6
49VanderbiltSEC11104.736.240.96-4
50Bowling GreenMAC21014.52640.57-3
51NebraskaB106107.133.340.47-3
52PittsburghACC810-0.440.540.25-5
53TCUB12711-0.240.340.14-7
54ToledoMAC3106.73339.77-3
55MinnesotaB107106.932.739.68-2
56Boston CollegeACC9100.539.139.56-4
57IndianaB10810-0.840.139.34-6
58MarshallCUSA21016.922.339.27-3
59NorthwesternB109100.138.538.64-6
60Ball StMAC41112.725.638.39-2
61BuffaloMAC5108.929.338.17-3
62North TexasCUSA31011.92637.97-3
63NavyIND3105.232.237.46-4
64RiceCUSA4108.228.736.97-3
65CincinnatiAAC41013.72336.68-2
66TennesseeSEC1210-6.743.236.64-6
67Penn StateB1010102.234.336.56-4
68MarylandACC10100.93535.86-4
69SyracuseACC1110-2.136.834.75-5
70Louisiana-LafayetteSUN1101123.734.78-2
71West VirginiaB12811-6.140.734.64-7
72Colorado StMWC4114.53034.46-5
73IllinoisB101110-7.340.2333-7
74MemphisAAC59-133.732.73-6
75Wake ForestACC1210-3.435.4324-6
76North Carolina StACC1310-637.331.33-7
77ColoradoP121110-10.441.631.24-6
78San Diego StMWC510-1.532.731.26-4
79Florida AtlanticCUSA510-0.931.830.94-6
80KentuckySEC1310-8.13930.92-8
81San José StMWC610-2.432.930.55-5
82ArkansasSEC1410-9.539.930.53-7
83Arkansas StSUN2102.927.630.46-4
84Middle Tennessee StCUSA610-0.630.630.16-4
85NevadaMWC711-635.329.34-7
86Texas-San AntonioCUSA710-3.232.329.15-5
87Iowa StB12910-1543.9291-9
88VirginiaACC1410-12.841.728.92-8
89Ohio U.MAC6102.226.428.66-4
90TulaneCUSA8101.42728.46-4
91Western KentuckySUN3103.724.728.36-4
92RutgersAAC69-1.629.828.25-4
93SMUAAC79-5.633.327.74-5
94KansasB121010-12.540.227.73-7
95UNLVMWC810-4.431.427.15-5
96CaliforniaP121211-19.345.426.11-10
97South AlabamaSUN49-1.927.425.53-6
98TempleAAC810-7.632.925.31-9
99WyomingMWC910-2.927.324.44-6
100Hawai`iMWC1010-13.637.423.80-10
101TroySUN511-3.526.5235-6
102AkronMAC711-8.431.122.74-7
103South FloridaAAC99-14.436.822.32-7
104Kent StMAC811-8.530.822.33-8
105Texas St-San MarcosSUN6100.821.322.16-4
106Louisiana-MonroeSUN710-5.527.5225-5
107ArmyIND410-5.52721.53-7
108New MexicoMWC1110-6.627.721.23-7
109TulsaCUSA910-13.134.121.12-8
110PurdueB101210-21.741.619.91-9
111Air ForceMWC1210-10.930.419.62-8
112Central MichiganMAC910-10.529.919.44-6
113ConnecticutAAC109-18.236.618.40-9
114Louisiana TechCUSA1010-4.622.517.94-6
115Alabama-BirminghamCUSA1110-13.530.617.12-8
116MassachusettsMAC1010-17.734.416.71-9
117UTEPCUSA1210-11.926.8152-8
118Western MichiganMAC1111-15.829.213.41-10
119New Mexico StIND510-21.333.111.81-9
120Georgia StSUN810-18.630.411.80-10
121IdahoIND610-23.33410.81-9
122Eastern MichiganMAC1210-20.129.39.22-8
123Miami OHMAC1310-20.6298.40-10
124Southern MissCUSA1310-25.431.25.80-10
125Florida Int'lCUSA1410-22.828.35.61-9

And the week 12 game results. As always, you can view the results from every FBS game this season at this link.

Date
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
Opp_Conf
SOS
SRS
11-16-2013Wisconsin_B1051Indiana3HomeWin4834.5B1039.373.8
11-16-2013Florida St_ACC59Syracuse3HomeWin5638.5ACC34.773.2
11-16-2013Oklahoma St_B1238Texas13RoadWin2526B1244.370.3
11-16-2013Baylor_B1263Texas Tech34NeutWin2926.5B1242.468.9
11-14-2013Clemson_ACC55Georgia Tech31HomeWin2421ACC46.967.9
11-16-2013Oregon_P1244Utah21HomeWin2320P1247.667.6
11-12-2013Bowling Green_MAC49Ohio U.0HomeWin4935MAC28.663.6
11-16-2013Cincinnati_AAC52Rutgers17RoadWin3531AAC28.259.2
11-16-2013Ohio State_B1060Illinois35RoadWin2526B103359
11-15-2013UCLA_P1241Washington31HomeWin107P1251.758.7
11-16-2013Oklahoma_B1248Iowa St10HomeWin3829.5B122958.5
11-16-2013Duke_ACC48Miami FL30HomeWin1815ACC42.957.9
11-16-2013Alabama_SEC20Mississippi St7RoadWin1316SEC4157
11-16-2013Washington St_P1224Arizona17RoadWin710P1246.956.9
11-16-2013Arizona St_P1230Oregon St17HomeWin1310P1246.556.5
11-16-2013Southern Cal_P1220Stanford17HomeWin30P1256.556.5
11-16-2013Michigan St_B1041Nebraska28RoadWin1316B1040.456.4
11-13-2013Northern Illinois_MAC48Ball St27HomeWin2118MAC38.356.3
11-16-2013Boise St_MWC48Wyoming7HomeWin4131MWC24.455.4
11-16-2013Auburn_SEC43Georgia38HomeWin57SEC48.155.1
11-16-2013East Carolina_CUSA63Alabama-Birmingham14HomeWin4935CUSA17.152.1
11-16-2013Maryland_ACC27Virginia Tech24RoadWin37ACC44.351.3
11-16-2013Stanford_P1217Southern Cal20RoadLoss-30P1250.950.9
11-16-2013North Carolina_ACC34Pittsburgh27RoadWin710ACC40.250.2
11-16-2013Louisville_AAC20Houston13HomeWin77AAC43.150.1
11-16-2013Navy_IND42South Alabama14HomeWin2824.5SUN25.550
11-16-2013South Carolina_SEC19Florida14HomeWin57SEC42.649.6
11-16-2013Michigan_B1027Northwestern19RoadWin811B1038.649.6
11-16-2013Nevada_MWC38San José St16HomeWin2219MWC30.549.5
11-16-2013TCU_B1231Kansas St33RoadLoss-20B1249.149.1
11-16-2013Oregon St_P1217Arizona St30RoadLoss-13-10P1258.848.8
11-16-2013Mississippi_SEC51Troy21HomeWin3025.5SUN2348.5
11-16-2013Rice_CUSA52Louisiana Tech14HomeWin3829.5CUSA17.947.4
11-16-2013Colorado St_MWC66New Mexico42RoadWin2425.5MWC21.246.7
11-16-2013Mississippi St_SEC7Alabama20HomeLoss-13-16SEC62.146.1
11-16-2013Georgia_SEC38Auburn43RoadLoss-5-7SEC5346
11-15-2013Washington_P1231UCLA41RoadLoss-10-7P1252.445.4
11-16-2013Boston College_ACC38North Carolina St21HomeWin1714ACC31.345.3
11-16-2013Brigham Young_IND59Idaho St13HomeWin4633.5fcs11.745.2
11-12-2013Toledo_MAC51Buffalo41HomeWin107MAC38.145.1
11-16-2013Utah_P1221Oregon44RoadLoss-23-20P126444
11-16-2013Vanderbilt_SEC22Kentucky6HomeWin1613SEC30.943.9
11-16-2013Florida_SEC14South Carolina19RoadLoss-5-7SEC50.743.7
11-16-2013Kansas_B1231West Virginia19HomeWin129B1234.643.6
11-16-2013Houston_AAC13Louisville20RoadLoss-7-7AAC48.241.2
11-16-2013Penn State_B1045Purdue21HomeWin2421B1019.940.9
11-16-2013Texas Tech_B1234Baylor63NeutLoss-29-26.5B1266.740.2
11-16-2013Kansas St_B1233TCU31HomeWin20B1240.140.1
11-16-2013Colorado_P1241California24HomeWin1714P1226.140.1
11-16-2013Memphis_AAC23South Florida10RoadWin1316AAC22.338.3
11-16-2013Temple_AAC36Central Florida39HomeLoss-3-7AAC45.138.1
11-16-2013Florida Atlantic_CUSA41Southern Miss7RoadWin3430.5CUSA5.836.3
11-16-2013Arkansas St_SUN38Texas St-San Marcos21HomeWin1714SUN22.136.1
11-14-2013Marshall_CUSA45Tulsa34RoadWin1114CUSA21.135.1
11-14-2013Georgia Tech_ACC31Clemson55RoadLoss-24-21ACC55.234.2
11-16-2013San Diego St_MWC28Hawai`i21RoadWin710MWC23.833.8
11-12-2013Buffalo_MAC41Toledo51RoadLoss-10-7MAC39.732.7
11-16-2013SMU_AAC38Connecticut21HomeWin1714AAC18.432.4
11-16-2013Central Florida_AAC39Temple36RoadWin37AAC25.332.3
11-16-2013Pittsburgh_ACC27North Carolina34HomeLoss-7-10ACC42.232.2
11-16-2013Nebraska_B1028Michigan St41HomeLoss-13-16B1047.831.8
11-16-2013Arizona_P1217Washington St24HomeLoss-7-10P1241.731.7
11-16-2013Northwestern_B1019Michigan27HomeLoss-8-11B1042.731.7
11-16-2013Illinois_B1035Ohio State60HomeLoss-25-26B1057.331.3
11-16-2013Syracuse_ACC3Florida St59RoadLoss-56-38.5ACC68.830.3
11-16-2013Virginia Tech_ACC24Maryland27HomeLoss-3-7ACC35.828.8
11-16-2013Texas_B1213Oklahoma St38HomeLoss-25-26B1254.828.8
11-16-2013Louisiana-Lafayette_SUN35Georgia St21RoadWin1417SUN11.828.8
11-16-2013Miami FL_ACC30Duke48RoadLoss-18-15ACC43.628.6
11-16-2013Kentucky_SEC6Vanderbilt22RoadLoss-16-13SEC40.927.9
11-16-2013UTEP_CUSA33Florida Int'l10HomeWin2320CUSA5.625.6
11-16-2013North Carolina St_ACC21Boston College38RoadLoss-17-14ACC39.525.5
11-13-2013Ball St_MAC27Northern Illinois48RoadLoss-21-18MAC43.425.4
11-14-2013Tulsa_CUSA34Marshall45HomeLoss-11-14CUSA39.225.2
11-16-2013Akron_MAC14Massachusetts13RoadWin17MAC16.723.7
11-13-2013Kent St_MAC24Miami OH6HomeWin1815MAC8.423.4
11-16-2013Indiana_B103Wisconsin51RoadLoss-48-34.5B1057.422.9
11-16-2013Central Michigan_MAC27Western Michigan22RoadWin58MAC13.421.4
11-16-2013Hawai`i_MWC21San Diego St28HomeLoss-7-10MWC31.221.2
11-16-2013Troy_SUN21Mississippi51RoadLoss-30-25.5SEC45.319.8
11-16-2013West Virginia_B1219Kansas31RoadLoss-12-9B1227.718.7
11-16-2013Georgia St_SUN21Louisiana-Lafayette35HomeLoss-14-17SUN34.717.7
11-16-2013California_P1224Colorado41RoadLoss-17-14P1231.217.2
11-16-2013Iowa St_B1210Oklahoma48RoadLoss-38-29.5B1246.316.8
11-16-2013South Florida_AAC10Memphis23HomeLoss-13-16AAC32.716.7
11-16-2013Texas St-San Marcos_SUN21Arkansas St38RoadLoss-17-14SUN30.416.4
11-16-2013Massachusetts_MAC13Akron14HomeLoss-1-7MAC22.715.7
11-16-2013Purdue_B1021Penn State45RoadLoss-24-21B1036.515.5
11-16-2013Wyoming_MWC7Boise St48RoadLoss-41-31MWC45.214.2
11-16-2013Connecticut_AAC21SMU38RoadLoss-17-14AAC27.713.7
11-16-2013South Alabama_SUN14Navy42RoadLoss-28-24.5IND37.412.9
11-16-2013Western Michigan_MAC22Central Michigan27HomeLoss-5-8MAC19.411.4
11-16-2013San José St_MWC16Nevada38RoadLoss-22-19MWC29.310.3
11-16-2013New Mexico_MWC42Colorado St66HomeLoss-24-25.5MWC34.48.9
11-16-2013Alabama-Birmingham_CUSA14East Carolina63RoadLoss-49-35CUSA42.47.4
11-16-2013Louisiana Tech_CUSA14Rice52RoadLoss-38-29.5CUSA36.97.4
11-13-2013Miami OH_MAC6Kent St24RoadLoss-18-15MAC22.37.3
11-16-2013Rutgers_AAC17Cincinnati52HomeLoss-35-31AAC36.65.6
11-12-2013Ohio U._MAC0Bowling Green49RoadLoss-49-35MAC40.55.5
11-16-2013Southern Miss_CUSA7Florida Atlantic41HomeLoss-34-30.5CUSA30.90.4
11-16-2013Florida Int'l_CUSA10UTEP33RoadLoss-23-20CUSA15-5
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