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Last week, the top five was Florida State, Baylor, Oregon, Alabama, and Arizona State. Florida State won big (by 56), while Baylor and Alabama won big games (against Oklahoma and LSU) by comfortable margins. Arizona State won by a point at Utah, an underrated team (despite the record, Utah ranks 24th in the SRS). Of course, the big story of the week was Stanford (who lost to Utah earlier in the year) upsetting Oregon. Oregon understandably will drop in the rankings, but this late in the season, one game doesn’t swing the SRS nearly as much. After all, each game is given the same weight. Oregon gets credited with a 50.7 SRS score for losing in Palo Alto, which essentially says for one game, the Ducks were about the 20th best team in the country. Alabama gets 69.9 points for defeating LSU at home by 21. But while the Crimson Tide move up, and moves the Ducks down, Alabama did not pass Oregon in the SRS.

Say what? Yes, the SRS still has FSU, Baylor, and Oregon ahead of Alabama. I’ll explain more in a minute, but first, the SRS ratings through eleven weeks. As a reminder, you can read about the methodology here. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game.

Rk
Team
Conf
Conf Rk
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
REC
1Florida StACC1931.43768.49-0
2BaylorB121833.434.167.58-0
3OregonP121926.637.564.18-1
4AlabamaSEC1925.238.363.59-0
5Arizona StP122914.644.559.17-2
6Ohio StateB101924.233.757.99-0
7StanfordP12391146.757.78-1
8MissouriSEC21018.938.757.69-1
9WisconsinB102918.437.756.27-2
10ClemsonACC2915.638.453.98-1
11Oklahoma StB122918.934.953.88-1
12AuburnSEC31016.137.253.29-1
13WashingtonP124910.942536-3
14Texas A&MSEC41014.638.352.98-2
15Brigham YoungIND198.844.152.86-3
16UCLAP125912.44052.47-2
17LSUSEC51012.439.551.97-3
18South CarolinaSEC699.442.251.67-2
19Kansas StB12399.141.9515-4
20Southern CalP126108.342.550.87-3
21LouisvilleAAC1922.92749.98-1
22Georgia TechACC3911.238.549.76-3
23ArizonaP127910.838.449.36-3
24UtahP12892.346.548.84-5
25GeorgiaSEC795.343.448.76-3
26Central FloridaAAC2814.433.347.77-1
27Michigan StB103914.932.647.58-1
28Virginia TechACC4105.341.847.17-3
29TexasB12498.837.946.67-2
30Oregon StP12998.138.446.56-3
31MississippiSEC895.640.345.86-3
32Utah StMWC11012.63345.66-4
33Miami FLACC598.736.845.57-2
34OklahomaB12596.838.645.47-2
35Notre DameIND2105.638.944.57-3
36Boise StMWC2910.434.144.56-3
37HoustonAAC3912.931.444.37-2
38IowaB104105.93843.96-4
39FloridaSEC990.642.943.44-5
40Fresno StMWC3915.22843.29-0
41Texas TechB126108.534.5437-3
42DukeACC699.733.342.97-2
43MichiganB10597.635.142.86-3
44East CarolinaCUSA1915.127.542.67-2
45North CarolinaACC791.64142.64-5
46Northern IllinoisMAC1918.823.642.59-0
47NebraskaB10699.732.542.27-2
48PittsburghACC890.741.3425-4
49VanderbiltSEC1093.837.541.35-4
50IndianaB1079338.241.24-5
51MarshallCUSA2917.223.8416-3
52MinnesotaB108106.933.940.78-2
53Mississippi StSEC1190.140.540.54-5
54Washington StP12109-2.743.140.34-5
55Ball StMAC21015.824.540.39-1
56NorthwesternB10991.338.7404-5
57BuffaloMAC3910.62939.67-2
58TCUB12710-0.239.839.64-6
59ToledoMAC496.732.839.46-3
60Boston CollegeACC99-1.140.439.35-4
61North TexasCUSA31011.927.1397-3
62Bowling GreenMAC5912.226.138.36-3
63TennesseeSEC1210-6.744.137.44-6
64Penn StateB101090.136.937.15-4
65West VirginiaB12810-5.842.436.64-6
66NavyIND39333.636.65-4
67Louisiana-LafayetteSUN1910.326.236.57-2
68RiceCUSA495.830.135.96-3
69SyracuseACC109233.635.65-4
70MarylandACC1190.234.8355-4
71CincinnatiAAC4911.722.834.67-2
72Colorado StMWC4102.431.233.65-5
73San José StMWC59-0.53433.55-4
74IllinoisB10119-5.238.633.53-6
75Wake ForestACC1210-3.435.832.44-6
76Ohio U.MAC696.32632.46-3
77MemphisAAC58-3.135.432.22-6
78KentuckySEC139-7.639.832.22-7
79North Carolina StACC139-5.137.332.23-6
80RutgersAAC682.129.831.95-3
81ArkansasSEC1410-9.541.231.73-7
82San Diego StMWC69-2.834.231.45-4
83Florida AtlanticCUSA59-4.435.831.43-6
84Middle Tennessee StCUSA610-0.631.731.26-4
85ColoradoP12119-13.144.1313-6
86Arkansas StSUN291.629.330.95-4
87Iowa StB1299-13.344.130.71-8
88Texas-San AntonioCUSA710-3.233.129.95-5
89TulaneCUSA8101.428.229.66-4
90VirginiaACC1410-12.842.429.62-8
91Western KentuckySUN3103.725.729.46-4
92UNLVMWC710-4.432.528.15-5
93South AlabamaSUN480.92727.83-5
94SMUAAC78-835.527.53-5
95CaliforniaP121210-19.947.327.51-9
96NevadaMWC810-8.635.927.33-7
97WyomingMWC990.226.426.64-5
98KansasB12109-14.941.226.32-7
99TempleAAC89-7.732.524.81-8
100Hawai`iMWC109-1438.424.40-9
101Texas St-San MarcosSUN592.421.824.36-3
102TroySUN610-1.325.524.25-5
103South FloridaAAC98-14.337.923.72-6
104AkronMAC710-1033.523.63-7
105New MexicoMWC119-4.427.823.43-6
106Louisiana-MonroeSUN710-5.528.422.95-5
107Kent StMAC810-10.933.722.82-8
108ArmyIND410-5.527.922.43-7
109TulsaCUSA99-12.933.420.42-7
110PurdueB10129-21.842.220.41-8
111Central MichiganMAC99-12.632.6203-6
112Air ForceMWC1210-10.930.8202-8
113Louisiana TechCUSA109-1.821.7204-5
114ConnecticutAAC108-18.838.219.50-8
115Alabama-BirminghamCUSA119-11.130.419.32-7
116MassachusettsMAC109-18.935.816.91-8
117Western MichiganMAC1110-16.630.914.41-9
118UTEPCUSA129-15.429.714.31-8
119Georgia StSUN89-18.831.212.40-9
120New Mexico StIND510-21.333.712.41-9
121IdahoIND610-23.334.711.41-9
122Eastern MichiganMAC1210-20.130.410.32-8
123Miami OHMAC139-21.230.390-9
124Florida Int'lCUSA139-23.1317.91-8
125Southern MissCUSA149-24.832.67.70-9

As highlighted last week, the Crimson Tide faced two nonconference cupcakes in Georgia State and Colorado State. Those games hurt Alabama in this system: remove them, and the Tide jump to 67.4. But if we do that, we also need to remove the blowouts for all teams that ultimately lower the victor’s rating. For example, Oregon received an SRS grade of just 50.3 for a 66-3 beating of Nicholls State.

So I thought of a new adjustment to the SRS. What if we remove all games where a team won by at least 21 points but the game lowered the winning team’s SRS rating? The top four doesn’t change, although the quantity of games does. Here is how the top 25 would look:

Rk
Team
Conf
Conf Rk
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
REC
1Florida StACC1433.140.273.34-0
2BaylorB121331.540.5723-0
3OregonP121418.650.168.73-1
4AlabamaSEC1422.345.968.14-0
5WisconsinB10159.450.860.23-2
6Arizona StP122811.747.859.56-2
7MissouriSEC2817.241.959.17-1
8Ohio StateB102821.23758.28-0
9StanfordP12391146.757.78-1
10UCLAP12465.848.2544-2
11WashingtonP12575.648.4544-3
12ClemsonACC2915.638.453.98-1
13Oklahoma StB122918.934.953.88-1
14AuburnSEC3913.440.353.78-1
15LSUSEC475.947.853.74-3
16Texas A&MSEC5810.742.653.36-2
17Brigham YoungIND198.844.152.86-3
18Kansas StB12387.14552.14-4
19South CarolinaSEC699.442.251.67-2
20Southern CalP126108.342.550.87-3
21LouisvilleAAC1822.627.349.97-1
22Georgia TechACC3911.238.549.76-3
23GeorgiaSEC782.34749.35-3
24ArizonaP127910.838.449.36-3
25UtahP1288-2.651.849.23-5

So why is a “3-1″ Oregon team ahead of a “4-0″ Crimson Tide? Not, as you might suspect, because of the high-octane Oregon offense. No, the Ducks are ahead because of a tougher strength of schedule.1 For non-predictive ranking purposes, the difference between 4-0 and 3-1 is huge; for predictive purposes, a 7-point win against Texas A&M is only 12 points better than a 6-point loss to Stanford. Oregon’s rating is pumped up because Washington and UCLA are ranked in the top 11, and Oregon smoked both teams. Essentially, this tells us that Oregon and Alabama are essentially equal, although the SRS does not know that the 26-20 score against Stanford was quite a bit deceiving. But putting that aside, I’m not too bothered by Oregon being sliiiiiightly ahead of Alabama: Humans are subject to a recency bias, but the SRS is not. Had Oregon lost to Stanford in week 1, and then played the Washington game last weekend, it wouldn’t be very jarring to consider Oregon one of the top three teams in the country. And if Alabama beats Auburn and Missouri to end the season, the Crimson Tide’s strength of schedule should be enough to boost them ahead of the Ducks.

One team that jumps up in this modified system is Wisconsin. The Badgers blew out Purdue 41-0, Tennessee Tech 48-0, Massachusetts 45-0, and Illinois 56-32…. and all of those games hurt Wisconsin’s rating. Take those out, and Wisconsin jumps into the top five based on blowing out respectable teams in Iowa and Northwestern, and defeating a very good BYU team by 10 points. The two losses were against top-eight teams on the road, so the Badgers aren’t really harmed. Ohio State is still on the outside looking in, at least in the SRS, because the wins against Cal, Iowa, and Northwestern were very underwhelming given the level of competition.

What about the top games of week 11? In what seems to be a very common occurrence, Florida State again produced the top game of the year. It’s getting boring talking about FSU, but rest assured, they’re #1 for a reason. With the Gators tanking and the eventual opponent in the ACC Championship Game unlikely to present a real challenge, it would be a major shock if FSU didn’t wind up in the BCS National Championship Game.

Date
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
Opp_Conf
SOS
SRS
11-09-2013Florida St_ACC59Wake Forest3RoadWin5641.5ACC32.473.9
11-07-2013Stanford_P1226Oregon20HomeWin67P1264.171.1
11-07-2013Baylor_B1241Oklahoma12HomeWin2925B1245.470.4
11-09-2013Alabama_SEC38LSU17HomeWin2118SEC51.969.9
11-09-2013Kansas St_B1249Texas Tech26RoadWin2325B124368
11-09-2013Washington_P1259Colorado7HomeWin5236.5P123167.5
11-09-2013Auburn_SEC55Tennessee23RoadWin3229.5SEC37.466.9
11-09-2013Virginia Tech_ACC42Miami FL24RoadWin1821ACC45.566.5
11-09-2013Vanderbilt_SEC34Florida17RoadWin1720SEC43.463.4
11-09-2013Missouri_SEC48Kentucky17RoadWin3129SEC32.261.2
11-09-2013Wisconsin_B1027Brigham Young17HomeWin107IND52.859.8
11-09-2013Fresno St_MWC48Wyoming10RoadWin3832.5MWC26.659.1
11-09-2013Southern Cal_P1262California28RoadWin3430.5P1227.558
11-09-2013UCLA_P1231Arizona26RoadWin58P1249.357.3
11-05-2013Buffalo_MAC30Ohio U.3HomeWin2724MAC32.456.4
11-09-2013Arizona St_P1220Utah19RoadWin17P1248.855.8
11-09-2013North Carolina_ACC45Virginia14HomeWin3126ACC29.655.6
11-09-2013Syracuse_ACC20Maryland3RoadWin1720ACC3555
11-09-2013Oklahoma St_B1242Kansas6HomeWin3628.5B1226.354.8
11-09-2013Utah_P1219Arizona St20HomeLoss-1-7P1259.152.1
11-09-2013Pittsburgh_ACC28Notre Dame21HomeWin77IND44.551.5
11-09-2013Central Florida_AAC19Houston14HomeWin57AAC44.351.3
11-09-2013Marshall_CUSA56Alabama-Birmingham14HomeWin4231.5CUSA19.350.8
11-07-2013Oregon_P1220Stanford26RoadLoss-6-7P1257.750.7
11-09-2013Arkansas St_SUN42Louisiana-Monroe14RoadWin2827.5SUN22.950.4
11-09-2013Nebraska_B1017Michigan13RoadWin47B1042.849.8
11-09-2013Brigham Young_IND17Wisconsin27RoadLoss-10-7B1056.249.2
11-09-2013Minnesota_B1024Penn State10HomeWin1411B1037.148.1
11-09-2013East Carolina_CUSA58Tulsa24HomeWin3427.5CUSA20.447.9
11-09-2013Texas A&M_SEC51Mississippi St41HomeWin107SEC40.547.5
11-09-2013Indiana_B1052Illinois35HomeWin1714B1033.547.5
11-09-2013Duke_ACC38North Carolina St20HomeWin1815ACC32.247.2
11-09-2013Texas_B1247West Virginia40RoadWin710B1236.646.6
11-09-2013Mississippi St_SEC41Texas A&M51RoadLoss-10-7SEC52.945.9
11-09-2013Iowa_B1038Purdue14RoadWin2425.5B1020.445.9
11-09-2013LSU_SEC17Alabama38RoadLoss-21-18SEC63.545.5
11-09-2013Colorado St_MWC38Nevada17HomeWin2118MWC27.345.3
11-09-2013Arizona_P1226UCLA31HomeLoss-5-8P1252.444.4
11-09-2013Georgia_SEC45Appalachian St6HomeWin3930fcs1444
11-05-2013Bowling Green_MAC45Miami OH3RoadWin4234.5MAC943.5
11-08-2013Louisville_AAC31Connecticut10RoadWin2124AAC19.543.5
11-07-2013Oklahoma_B1212Baylor41RoadLoss-29-25B1267.542.5
11-09-2013Middle Tennessee St_CUSA48Florida Int'l0HomeWin4834.5CUSA7.942.4
11-09-2013North Texas_CUSA41UTEP7HomeWin3427.5CUSA14.341.8
11-09-2013Houston_AAC14Central Florida19RoadLoss-5-7AAC47.740.7
11-09-2013San Diego St_MWC34San José St30RoadWin47MWC33.540.5
11-09-2013Arkansas_SEC24Mississippi34RoadLoss-10-7SEC45.838.8
11-09-2013Mississippi_SEC34Arkansas24HomeWin107SEC31.738.7
11-09-2013UNLV_MWC24Utah St28HomeLoss-4-7MWC45.638.6
11-09-2013TCU_B1221Iowa St17RoadWin47B1230.737.7
11-06-2013Ball St_MAC44Central Michigan24HomeWin2017MAC2037
11-09-2013West Virginia_B1240Texas47HomeLoss-7-10B1246.636.6
11-09-2013Memphis_AAC21Tennessee-Martin6HomeWin1512fcs23.835.8
11-09-2013Navy_IND42Hawai`i28HomeWin1411MWC24.435.4
11-09-2013Michigan_B1013Nebraska17HomeLoss-4-7B1042.235.2
11-09-2013Utah St_MWC28UNLV24RoadWin47MWC28.135.1
11-09-2013Notre Dame_IND21Pittsburgh28RoadLoss-7-7ACC4235
11-09-2013SMU_AAC25Cincinnati28RoadLoss-30AAC34.634.6
11-09-2013Iowa St_B1217TCU21HomeLoss-4-7B1239.632.6
11-07-2013Louisiana-Lafayette_SUN41Troy36HomeWin57SUN24.231.2
11-09-2013Tulane_CUSA7Texas-San Antonio10RoadLoss-30CUSA29.929.9
11-09-2013Penn State_B1010Minnesota24RoadLoss-14-11B1040.729.7
11-09-2013Texas-San Antonio_CUSA10Tulane7HomeWin30CUSA29.629.6
11-07-2013Troy_SUN36Louisiana-Lafayette41RoadLoss-5-7SUN36.529.5
11-09-2013Boston College_ACC48New Mexico St34RoadWin1417IND12.429.4
11-09-2013Western Kentucky_SUN21Army17RoadWin47IND22.429.4
11-09-2013Kentucky_SEC17Missouri48HomeLoss-31-29SEC57.628.6
11-09-2013North Carolina St_ACC20Duke38RoadLoss-18-15ACC42.927.9
11-09-2013Louisiana Tech_CUSA36Southern Miss13HomeWin2320CUSA7.727.7
11-09-2013Cincinnati_AAC28SMU25HomeWin30AAC27.527.5
11-09-2013Illinois_B1035Indiana52RoadLoss-17-14B1041.227.2
11-08-2013New Mexico_MWC45Air Force37HomeWin87MWC2027
11-09-2013Wake Forest_ACC3Florida St59HomeLoss-56-41.5ACC68.426.9
11-09-2013Miami FL_ACC24Virginia Tech42HomeLoss-18-21ACC47.126.1
11-09-2013Texas Tech_B1226Kansas St49HomeLoss-23-25B125126
11-08-2013Connecticut_AAC10Louisville31HomeLoss-21-24AAC49.925.9
11-09-2013Hawai`i_MWC28Navy42RoadLoss-14-11IND36.625.6
11-09-2013Kansas_B126Oklahoma St42RoadLoss-36-28.5B1253.825.3
11-09-2013San José St_MWC30San Diego St34HomeLoss-4-7MWC31.424.4
11-09-2013Tennessee_SEC23Auburn55HomeLoss-32-29.5SEC53.223.7
11-06-2013Central Michigan_MAC24Ball St44RoadLoss-20-17MAC40.323.3
11-09-2013Army_IND17Western Kentucky21HomeLoss-4-7SUN29.422.4
11-09-2013New Mexico St_IND34Boston College48HomeLoss-14-17ACC39.322.3
11-09-2013Florida_SEC17Vanderbilt34HomeLoss-17-20SEC41.321.3
11-09-2013California_P1228Southern Cal62HomeLoss-34-30.5P1250.820.3
11-09-2013Purdue_B1014Iowa38HomeLoss-24-25.5B1043.918.4
11-09-2013Virginia_ACC14North Carolina45RoadLoss-31-26ACC42.616.6
11-09-2013Colorado_P127Washington59RoadLoss-52-36.5P125316.5
11-08-2013Air Force_MWC37New Mexico45RoadLoss-8-7MWC23.416.4
11-05-2013Ohio U._MAC3Buffalo30RoadLoss-27-24MAC39.615.6
11-09-2013Maryland_ACC3Syracuse20HomeLoss-17-20ACC35.615.6
11-09-2013Nevada_MWC17Colorado St38RoadLoss-21-18MWC33.615.6
11-09-2013Tulsa_CUSA24East Carolina58RoadLoss-34-27.5CUSA42.615.1
11-09-2013Eastern Michigan_MAC35Western Michigan32HomeWin30MAC14.414.4
11-09-2013UTEP_CUSA7North Texas41RoadLoss-34-27.5CUSA3911.5
11-09-2013Wyoming_MWC10Fresno St48HomeLoss-38-32.5MWC43.210.7
11-09-2013Western Michigan_MAC32Eastern Michigan35RoadLoss-30MAC10.310.3
11-09-2013Alabama-Birmingham_CUSA14Marshall56RoadLoss-42-31.5CUSA419.5
11-09-2013Idaho_IND38Old Dominion59HomeLoss-21-24fcs29.45.4
11-05-2013Miami OH_MAC3Bowling Green45HomeLoss-42-34.5MAC38.33.8
11-09-2013Louisiana-Monroe_SUN14Arkansas St42HomeLoss-28-27.5SUN30.93.4
11-09-2013Southern Miss_CUSA13Louisiana Tech36RoadLoss-23-20CUSA200
11-09-2013Florida Int'l_CUSA0Middle Tennessee St48RoadLoss-48-34.5CUSA31.2-3.3

Baylor continues to rise, although the Bears really need a loss by FSU or Alabama for it to make a practical difference. As always, you can view the SRS single-game results from each game at this page.

  1. Removing the blowouts eliminates Nicholls State, California, Virginia, Colorado, and Washington State, teams Oregon obliterated. That leaves four games: a 59-14 win over Tennessee, a 42-14 win against UCLA, a 45-24 win on the road against Washington, and the 26-20 loss at Stanford. For Alabama, we get rid of the Georgia State, Colorado State, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ole Miss games. That leaves the 49-42 win in College Station, the 35-10 neutral site victory against Virginia Tech, Saturday night’s 38-17 win against LSU, and the 52-0 blowout of Arkansas. []
{ 9 comments }
  • will November 11, 2013, 7:37 am

    I think it is either a great coincidence or a wonderful artifact of the rating system that Wisconsin and Arizona State are essentially tied.

    Reply

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