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Week 10 College Football SRS Ratings: Florida State Staying Strong at #1

Jameis Wins a ton

Jameis Wins a ton.

The Florida State Seminoles have done everything a championship team should do. FSU obliterated a 4-0 Maryland team 63-0, the most dominant win of the first five weeks of the season. That performance has only been eclipsed by one game since: the Seminoles 51-14 victory on the road against Clemson, a team that is currently ranked 10th in this week’s version of the SRS. In week 10, FSU was a 21-point favorite against an undefeated but underwhelming Hurricanes team: the Seminoles and Jameis Winston struggled a bit early, but won 41-14. That win gives FSU three of the top nine single game performances of the season.

Of course, FSU is still on the outside looking in when it comes to the BCS. If Oregon and Alabama remain undefeated, that’s your national championship game, a matchup college football fans have been pining for each of the past few seasons. Obviously an undefeated FSU team would deserve to be in the title game, just like an undefeated Alabama and undefeated Oregon would, too. Such is life in (thankfully, the last year of) college football’s two-team playoff system. But if we’re forced to split hairs, is FSU better than Alabama and/or Oregon? And what do we make of an Ohio State team that’s now 21-0 under Urban Meyer?

Let’s start with the SRS ratings through ten weeks. As a reminder, you can read about the methodology here. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game.

Rk
Team
Conf
Conf Rk
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
REC
1Florida StACC1830.239.669.88-0
2BaylorB121734.632.867.47-0
3OregonP121830.83666.88-0
4AlabamaSEC1826.137.163.28-0
5Arizona StP122815.644.560.16-2
6MissouriSEC2917.84057.88-1
7Ohio StateB101924.233.557.79-0
8StanfordP123811.544.756.27-1
9WisconsinB102819.935.955.86-2
10ClemsonACC2915.640.155.68-1
11Oklahoma StB122817.736.554.27-1
12Brigham YoungIND1810.84353.86-2
13LSUSEC3915.837.653.47-2
14Texas A&MSEC4915.437.953.37-2
15LouisvilleAAC1822.83052.77-1
16UCLAP124812.939.352.36-2
17South CarolinaSEC599.442.6527-2
18AuburnSEC6914.637.251.88-1
19WashingtonP12587.84451.85-3
20Southern CalP12695.844.950.76-3
21GeorgiaSEC782.348.250.55-3
22ArizonaP127813.236.8506-2
23Georgia TechACC3911.238.749.96-3
24Kansas StB12387.142.249.34-4
25Miami FLACC4812.436.849.37-1
26UtahP12883.54548.54-4
27Michigan StB103914.933.548.48-1
28Central FloridaAAC2715.532.948.46-1
29FloridaSEC883.144.647.84-4
30OklahomaB124810.836.647.47-1
31MississippiSEC985.441.847.25-3
32TexasB12588.638.547.16-2
33Utah StMWC1913.233.8475-4
34Notre DameIND29739.646.67-2
35Oregon StP12998.138.346.46-3
36Texas TechB126912.233.7467-2
37HoustonAAC3815.429.745.17-1
38Boise StMWC2910.434.344.76-3
39Virginia TechACC593.64144.66-3
40MichiganB10489.434.844.36-2
41IowaB10593.74043.75-4
42Northern IllinoisMAC1918.824.1439-0
43DukeACC68933.542.56-2
44East CarolinaCUSA1813.628.341.96-2
45NebraskaB10681031.741.76-2
46Ball StMAC2915.725.741.38-1
47North CarolinaACC78-1.442.741.23-5
48IndianaB10781.639.340.93-5
49PittsburghACC88-0.140.940.84-4
50TCUB1279-141.840.83-6
51Fresno StMWC381327.840.88-0
52Boston CollegeACC98-3.344.140.84-4
53Washington StP12109-2.743.440.74-5
54MarshallCUSA2815.425.240.65-3
55TennesseeSEC109-4.144.340.24-5
56NorthwesternB10891.338.740.14-5
57ToledoMAC396.733.4406-3
58Mississippi StSEC1180.939.1404-4
59MinnesotaB10996.433.439.87-2
60North TexasCUSA3910.229.539.66-3
61VanderbiltSEC1281.837.539.34-4
62MarylandACC1082.736.138.85-3
63Penn StateB101081.536.738.25-3
64Bowling GreenMAC489.428.537.95-3
65BuffaloMAC588.92937.96-2
66West VirginiaB1289-5.34337.74-5
67NavyIND38235.337.34-4
68Louisiana-LafayetteSUN1810.826.437.26-2
69RiceCUSA495.830.536.36-3
70CincinnatiAAC4813.222.936.16-2
71Ohio U.MAC6810.125.135.36-2
72San José StMWC480.334.634.95-3
73IllinoisB10118-4.138.934.93-5
74Wake ForestACC1190.933.734.54-5
75KentuckySEC138-4.93934.12-6
76SyracuseACC128-0.334.434.14-4
77ColoradoP12118-10.243.433.23-5
78North Carolina StACC138-3.936.9333-5
79Colorado StMWC590.632.132.84-5
80RutgersAAC582.129.831.85-3
81Florida AtlanticCUSA59-4.436.231.83-6
82VirginiaACC149-11.343.131.82-7
83ArkansasSEC149-9.741.531.83-6
84MemphisAAC67-5.336.931.61-6
85Iowa StB1298-14.14530.91-7
86Texas-San AntonioCUSA69-3.63430.44-5
87Western KentuckySUN293.327.130.45-4
88San Diego StMWC68-434.130.14-4
89TulaneCUSA791.628.530.16-3
90Middle Tennessee StCUSA89-4.434.429.95-4
91WyomingMWC784.324.829.24-4
92Arkansas StSUN38-1.630.328.64-4
93CaliforniaP12129-18.747.128.51-8
94South AlabamaSUN480.927.628.53-5
95NevadaMWC89-7.535.828.33-6
96SMUAAC77-9.136.727.63-4
97KansasB12108-13.240.427.22-6
98UNLVMWC99-4.130.926.95-4
99TempleAAC89-7.733.7261-8
100Texas St-San MarcosSUN592.423.5266-3
101Louisiana-MonroeSUN69-3.12925.95-4
102South FloridaAAC98-14.339.224.92-6
103AkronMAC710-1034.624.73-7
104TroySUN79-0.724.924.35-4
105Hawai`iMWC108-14.438.524.10-8
106Kent StMAC810-10.934.223.32-8
107New MexicoMWC118-5.928.822.92-6
108ArmyIND49-5.328.222.93-6
109TulsaCUSA98-11.132.621.42-6
110PurdueB10128-21.342.521.21-7
111Air ForceMWC129-11.332.3212-7
112Alabama-BirminghamCUSA108-8.629.320.82-6
113Central MichiganMAC98-1232.420.43-5
114Louisiana TechCUSA118-4.524.419.93-5
115ConnecticutAAC107-1837.619.60-7
116MassachusettsMAC109-18.935.716.81-8
117Western MichiganMAC119-18.433.4151-8
118UTEPCUSA128-13.928.614.71-7
119Georgia StSUN89-18.831.8130-9
120IdahoIND59-23.235.712.51-8
121New Mexico StIND69-21.833.111.31-8
122Florida Int'lCUSA138-21.632.711.11-7
123Miami OHMAC128-19.630.410.80-8
124Eastern MichiganMAC139-22.332.710.41-8
125Southern MissCUSA148-25.434.79.20-8

Ohio State has looked dominant the last two weeks, so why are the Buckeyes all the way down at #7? Let’s investigate with a look at their SRS score from each game, to see why Ohio State has a rating of “only” 57.7:

Date
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
Opp_Conf
SOS
SRS
10-26-2013Ohio State_B1063Penn State14HomeWin4935B1038.273.2
09-28-2013Ohio State_B1031Wisconsin24HomeWin77B1055.862.8
11-02-2013Ohio State_B1056Purdue0RoadWin5641.5B1021.262.7
09-07-2013Ohio State_B1042San Diego St7HomeWin3528MWC30.158.1
08-31-2013Ohio State_B1040Buffalo20HomeWin2017MAC37.954.9
09-21-2013Ohio State_B1076Florida A&M0HomeWin7648.5fcs6.154.6
10-05-2013Ohio State_B1040Northwestern30RoadWin1013B1040.153.1
10-19-2013Ohio State_B1034Iowa24HomeWin107B1043.750.7
09-14-2013Ohio State_B1052California34RoadWin1821P1228.549.5

California is terrible this year — #93 in the SRS — so an 18-point road win makes Ohio State look like just a good team, not a championship contender. Is that fair? I leave that up to you, but consider that Cal is 0-8 against FBS teams this year, with five of those losses coming by 24 or more points. In Eugene, Oregon beat Cal 55-16. Ten-point wins against both Northwestern (2-5 against BCS teams this year) and Iowa (a team that lost to Northern Illinois, and lost by more points to Michigan State and Wisconsin) don’t help the Buckeyes’ cause, either. The last two weeks, OSU has been great, but frankly, that’s how Florida State, Oregon, and Baylor have looked all year long.

Now, what about Alabama? The Crimson Tide have a rating of 63.3, which puts them nearly seven points behind FSU, and over three points behind both Baylor and Oregon. But is there a middle ground explanation, where we can use the SRS and still put Alabama on an equal field with the other top teams?

Date
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
Opp_Conf
SOS
SRS
09-28-2013Alabama_SEC25Mississippi0HomeWin2522SEC47.269.2
08-31-2013Alabama_SEC35Virginia Tech10NeutWin2524.5ACC44.669.1
10-19-2013Alabama_SEC52Arkansas0HomeWin5236.5SEC31.868.3
10-26-2013Alabama_SEC45Tennessee10HomeWin3528SEC40.268.2
10-12-2013Alabama_SEC48Kentucky7RoadWin4134SEC34.168.1
09-14-2013Alabama_SEC49Texas A&M42RoadWin710SEC53.363.3
09-21-2013Alabama_SEC31Colorado St6HomeWin2522MWC32.854.8
10-05-2013Alabama_SEC45Georgia St3HomeWin4231.5SUN1344.5

Alabama’s rating is being harmed by the simple fact of scheduling Georgia State, the 119th best team in the FBS. Now I’m all for questioning why does Alabama need to schedule Georgia State — I mean, really, why? — but from a computer ratings standpoint, some manipulation is probably in order. To earn a 67-point SRS rating at home against Georgia State (SRS of 13), the Crimson Tide would have had to win by 91 points (to give them a MOV of 56). Essentially, the SRS notes that Chattanooga beat Georgia State by 28 points, so Alabama only outdid Chattanooga by 14 points. The safest thing to do is probably just eliminate that game from Alabama’s schedule, which would bump up Alabama to an SRS of 65.8. If you eliminate the Colorado State game — which you would do for the same reason, albeit the logic isn’t as strong — the Crimson Tide get bumped to 67.7. That would put them ahead of everyone other than Florida State.

(On the other hand, it’s worth acknowledging that ‘Bama is getting (deservedly so) a lot of benefit of the doubt in the polls. Alabama has played just one team in the top 25 in the SRS, and Johnny Manziel nearly led an A&M upset all by himself. A 25-0 win over Ole Miss in September is the only other time the Crimson Tide have faced a team in the top 35 of the SRS. Alabama’s schedule has been easier than Florida State’s, but the Crimson Tide tend to get the benefit of the doubt. Of course, with LSU, Auburn, and either Missouri or South Carolina (in the SECCG) on deck, Alabama will either prove itself against tough competition or drop from the unbeaten ranks.)

What about Baylor?

Date
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
Opp_Conf
SOS
SRS
09-07-2013Baylor_B1270Buffalo13HomeWin5739MAC37.976.9
10-19-2013Baylor_B1271Iowa St7HomeWin6442.5B1230.973.4
09-21-2013Baylor_B1270Louisiana-Monroe7HomeWin6342SUN25.967.9
08-31-2013Baylor_B1269Wofford3HomeWin6643.5fcs20.864.3
10-05-2013Baylor_B1273West Virginia42HomeWin3126B1237.763.7
10-26-2013Baylor_B1259Kansas14RoadWin4536B1227.263.2
10-12-2013Baylor_B1235Kansas St25RoadWin1013B1249.362.3

The Bears played Wofford, an FCS school with a better SRS rating than Georgia State, but won by 66 points. As a result, their rating barely improves to 67.9 if you remove the FCS game. Baylor has been remarkably consistent this year, with their one close game coming against a strong KSU team. The Bears are a legitimate top-four team, although I don’t think I’d put them above Alabama. That schedule has been horrible, but fortunately, this is just a theoretical point: with Oklahoma (#30 in the SRS), Texas Tech (#36), Oklahoma State (#11), TCU (#50), and Texas (#32) rounding out the schedule, Baylor can prove its worth on the field. And it doesn’t appear as though Vegas is convinced, either, as the Bears are “only” 14 point home favorites against the Sooners on Thursday night, despite being 20 points better in the SRS. Still, we must at least acknowledge that Bryce Petty is putting up some Star Wars numbers: 2,463 yards on 177 attempts, 18 touchdowns, and just one interception, for a 13.9 yards per attempt average and a 15.7 Adjusted Yards per Attempt average. Those last two figures lead the nation by over two yards per attempt.

Let’s round it out with putting Oregon under the microscope.

Date
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
Opp_Conf
SOS
SRS
10-26-2013Oregon_P1242UCLA14HomeWin2824.5P1252.376.8
10-12-2013Oregon_P1245Washington24RoadWin2124P1251.875.8
09-14-2013Oregon_P1259Tennessee14HomeWin4533SEC40.273.2
09-07-2013Oregon_P1259Virginia10RoadWin4938ACC31.869.8
10-05-2013Oregon_P1257Colorado16RoadWin4134P1233.267.2
10-19-2013Oregon_P1262Washington St38HomeWin2421P1240.761.7
09-28-2013Oregon_P1255California16HomeWin3930P1228.558.5
08-31-2013Oregon_P1266Nicholls St3HomeWin6342fcs9.351.3

We need a Nicholls State adjuster, just like we did for Georgia State. Oregon won by 63 points but gets harmed in the ratings for that game; remove it, and Oregon jumps to 69.0. (Note: The Ducks are 10-point favorites at Stanford (SRS of 56) on Thursday night, which perfectly jives with this adjustment.) Right now, it’s hard to separate Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama, but it seems clear to me that Ohio State is a tier behind all three.

Let’s close with a look at the best and worst performances from week 10 in college football. FSU produced the best game of the week, but Arizona State wasn’t far behind. The Sun Devils are fifth in the SRS — ahead of not just every other two-loss team, but all one-loss teams, too — and looked oustanding again this week. Yes, ASU lost in Arlington against Notre Dame and by two touchdowns in Palo Alto, but they also beat Washington, Washington State, and Southern Cal by 84 combined points.

Date
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
Opp_Conf
SOS
SRS
11-02-2013Florida St_ACC41Miami FL14HomeWin2724ACC49.373.3
10-31-2013Arizona St_P1255Washington St21RoadWin3430.5P1240.771.2
11-02-2013Clemson_ACC59Virginia10RoadWin4938ACC31.869.8
11-02-2013Oklahoma St_B1252Texas Tech34RoadWin1821B124667
11-01-2013Southern Cal_P1231Oregon St14RoadWin1720P1246.466.4
11-02-2013Wisconsin_B1028Iowa9RoadWin1922B1043.765.7
11-02-2013Missouri_SEC31Tennessee3HomeWin2824.5SEC40.264.7
11-02-2013Michigan St_B1029Michigan6HomeWin2320B1044.364.3
11-02-2013Ohio State_B1056Purdue0RoadWin5641.5B1021.262.7
11-02-2013Kansas St_B1241Iowa St7HomeWin3427.5B1230.958.4
11-02-2013South Carolina_SEC34Mississippi St16HomeWin1815SEC4055
11-02-2013Georgia_SEC23Florida20NeutWin37SEC47.854.8
11-02-2013Utah St_MWC47Hawai`i10HomeWin3729MWC24.153.1
11-02-2013Auburn_SEC35Arkansas17RoadWin1821SEC31.852.8
11-02-2013Northern Illinois_MAC63Massachusetts19RoadWin4435.5MAC16.852.3
11-02-2013UCLA_P1245Colorado23HomeWin2219P1233.252.2
11-02-2013Boston College_ACC34Virginia Tech27HomeWin77ACC44.651.6
11-02-2013Texas A&M_SEC57UTEP7HomeWin5035.5CUSA14.750.2
11-02-2013Georgia Tech_ACC21Pittsburgh10HomeWin118ACC40.848.8
11-02-2013Minnesota_B1042Indiana39RoadWin37B1040.947.9
11-02-2013West Virginia_B1230TCU27RoadWin37B1240.847.8
11-02-2013Boise St_MWC42Colorado St30RoadWin1215MWC32.847.8
10-30-2013Cincinnati_AAC34Memphis21RoadWin1316AAC31.647.6
11-02-2013Texas_B1235Kansas13HomeWin2219B1227.246.2
11-02-2013Miami FL_ACC14Florida St41RoadLoss-27-24ACC69.845.8
10-31-2013North Texas_CUSA28Rice16HomeWin129CUSA36.345.3
11-02-2013Syracuse_ACC13Wake Forest0HomeWin1310ACC34.544.5
11-02-2013Notre Dame_IND38Navy34HomeWin47IND37.344.3
11-02-2013Florida Atlantic_CUSA34Tulane17HomeWin1714CUSA30.144.1
11-02-2013North Carolina_ACC27North Carolina St19RoadWin811ACC3344
11-02-2013Marshall_CUSA61Southern Miss13HomeWin4834.5CUSA9.243.7
11-02-2013Florida_SEC20Georgia23NeutLoss-3-7SEC50.543.5
11-02-2013Texas-San Antonio_CUSA34Tulsa15RoadWin1922CUSA21.443.4
11-02-2013Fresno St_MWC41Nevada23HomeWin1815MWC28.343.3
11-02-2013Kentucky_SEC48Alabama St14HomeWin3427.5fcs1542.5
11-02-2013California_P1228Arizona33HomeLoss-5-8P125042
11-02-2013Penn State_B1024Illinois17HomeWin77B1034.941.9
11-02-2013Pittsburgh_ACC10Georgia Tech21RoadLoss-11-8ACC49.941.9
11-02-2013Northwestern_B1024Nebraska27RoadLoss-30B1041.741.7
11-02-2013Toledo_MAC55Eastern Michigan16HomeWin3930MAC10.440.4
11-02-2013Nebraska_B1027Northwestern24HomeWin30B1040.140.1
11-02-2013San José St_MWC34UNLV24RoadWin1013MWC26.939.9
11-02-2013Navy_IND34Notre Dame38RoadLoss-4-7IND46.639.6
10-31-2013Louisiana-Monroe_SUN49Troy37RoadWin1215SUN24.339.3
11-02-2013Mississippi St_SEC16South Carolina34RoadLoss-18-15SEC5237
11-02-2013Arizona_P1233California28RoadWin58P1228.536.5
10-31-2013South Florida_AAC23Houston35RoadLoss-12-9AAC45.136.1
11-02-2013Arkansas St_SUN17South Alabama16RoadWin17SUN28.535.5
11-02-2013East Carolina_CUSA34Florida Int'l13RoadWin2124CUSA11.135.1
10-31-2013Houston_AAC35South Florida23HomeWin129AAC24.933.9
11-02-2013Air Force_MWC42Army28HomeWin1411IND22.933.9
11-02-2013Iowa_B109Wisconsin28HomeLoss-19-22B1055.833.8
11-02-2013Virginia Tech_ACC27Boston College34RoadLoss-7-7ACC40.833.8
11-02-2013Tennessee_SEC3Missouri31RoadLoss-28-24.5SEC57.833.3
11-02-2013Colorado_P1223UCLA45RoadLoss-22-19P1252.333.3
11-02-2013Texas Tech_B1234Oklahoma St52HomeLoss-18-21B1254.233.2
11-02-2013Indiana_B1039Minnesota42HomeLoss-3-7B1039.832.8
11-02-2013Western Kentucky_SUN44Georgia St28RoadWin1619SUN1332
11-02-2013Temple_AAC20Rutgers23RoadLoss-30AAC31.831.8
11-02-2013Texas St-San Marcos_SUN37Idaho21RoadWin1619IND12.531.5
11-02-2013Illinois_B1017Penn State24RoadLoss-7-7B1038.231.2
11-02-2013Arkansas_SEC17Auburn35HomeLoss-18-21SEC51.830.8
11-01-2013Oregon St_P1214Southern Cal31HomeLoss-17-20P1250.730.7
11-02-2013TCU_B1227West Virginia30HomeLoss-3-7B1237.730.7
10-31-2013Rice_CUSA16North Texas28RoadLoss-12-9CUSA39.630.6
11-02-2013Akron_MAC16Kent St7HomeWin97MAC23.330.3
11-02-2013North Carolina St_ACC19North Carolina27HomeLoss-8-11ACC41.230.2
11-02-2013San Diego St_MWC35New Mexico30HomeWin57MWC22.929.9
11-02-2013Colorado St_MWC30Boise St42HomeLoss-12-15MWC44.729.7
10-31-2013Washington St_P1221Arizona St55HomeLoss-34-30.5P1260.129.6
11-02-2013Michigan_B106Michigan St29RoadLoss-23-20B1048.428.4
11-02-2013Kansas_B1213Texas35RoadLoss-22-19B1247.128.1
11-02-2013Middle Tennessee St_CUSA24Alabama-Birmingham21RoadWin37CUSA20.827.8
11-02-2013New Mexico St_IND35Louisiana-Lafayette49RoadLoss-14-11SUN37.226.2
11-02-2013Rutgers_AAC23Temple20HomeWin30AAC2626
11-02-2013Nevada_MWC23Fresno St41RoadLoss-18-15MWC40.825.8
11-02-2013Wake Forest_ACC0Syracuse13RoadLoss-13-10ACC34.124.1
11-02-2013New Mexico_MWC30San Diego St35RoadLoss-5-7MWC30.123.1
11-02-2013Alabama-Birmingham_CUSA21Middle Tennessee St24HomeLoss-3-7CUSA29.922.9
11-02-2013Louisiana-Lafayette_SUN49New Mexico St35HomeWin1411IND11.322.3
11-02-2013UNLV_MWC24San José St34HomeLoss-10-13MWC34.921.9
11-02-2013Iowa St_B127Kansas St41RoadLoss-34-27.5B1249.321.8
11-02-2013South Alabama_SUN16Arkansas St17HomeLoss-1-7SUN28.621.6
10-30-2013Memphis_AAC21Cincinnati34HomeLoss-13-16AAC36.120.1
11-02-2013Hawai`i_MWC10Utah St47RoadLoss-37-29MWC4718
11-02-2013Florida Int'l_CUSA13East Carolina34HomeLoss-21-24CUSA41.917.9
11-02-2013UTEP_CUSA7Texas A&M57RoadLoss-50-35.5SEC53.317.8
11-02-2013Tulane_CUSA17Florida Atlantic34RoadLoss-17-14CUSA31.817.8
11-02-2013Kent St_MAC7Akron16RoadLoss-9-7MAC24.717.7
11-02-2013Virginia_ACC10Clemson59HomeLoss-49-38ACC55.617.6
11-02-2013Purdue_B100Ohio State56HomeLoss-56-41.5B1057.716.2
11-02-2013Georgia St_SUN28Western Kentucky44HomeLoss-16-19SUN30.411.4
10-31-2013Troy_SUN37Louisiana-Monroe49HomeLoss-12-15SUN25.910.9
11-02-2013Army_IND28Air Force42RoadLoss-14-11MWC2110
11-02-2013Eastern Michigan_MAC16Toledo55RoadLoss-39-30MAC4010
11-02-2013Tulsa_CUSA15Texas-San Antonio34HomeLoss-19-22CUSA30.48.4
11-02-2013Massachusetts_MAC19Northern Illinois63HomeLoss-44-35.5MAC437.5
11-02-2013Idaho_IND21Texas St-San Marcos37HomeLoss-16-19SUN267
11-02-2013Southern Miss_CUSA13Marshall61RoadLoss-48-34.5CUSA40.66.1

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