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Let’s start with the SRS ratings through nine weeks, excluding the Green Bay/Chicago Monday Night Football game:

1Denver Broncos814.9-3.211.77-1
2Carolina Panthers812.3-2.89.45-3
3Green Bay Packers78.10.995-2
4Seattle Seahawks99.6-18.68-1
5San Francisco 49ers88.8-0.38.46-2
6Indianapolis Colts87.4-0.56.96-2
7Kansas City Chiefs911.2-4.36.99-0
8New Orleans Saints88.8-2.36.56-2
9Cincinnati Bengals96-0.55.56-3
10Dallas Cowboys95-0.14.95-4
11Detroit Lions82.513.55-3
12New England Patriots96.2-2.83.47-2
13Arizona Cardinals8-
14Tennessee Titans80.8-0.20.54-4
15Baltimore Ravens80.30.20.43-5
16Miami Dolphins8-
17San Diego Chargers83-3.1-0.14-4
18Chicago Bears70.6-1.4-0.84-3
19Philadelphia Eagles9-0.3-0.9-1.34-5
20Cleveland Browns9-3.11.8-1.34-5
21Buffalo Bills9-5.62.6-33-6
22Washington Redskins8-6.32.3-3.93-5
23St. Louis Rams9-4.80.4-4.43-6
24Atlanta Falcons8-5.30.2-52-6
25Houston Texans8-9.43.4-62-6
26Tampa Bay Buccaneers8-8.31.9-6.40-8
27Minnesota Vikings8-7.91.3-6.61-7
28New York Giants8-9.52.9-6.62-6
29New York Jets9-7.2-0.3-7.55-4
30Pittsburgh Steelers8-6.1-1.6-7.82-6
31Oakland Raiders8-7.4-0.7-8.13-5
32Jacksonville Jaguars8-21.93.7-18.10-8

Today, I want to use the SRS on the single-game level to analyze two things: the best/worst performances of the year, and the most surprising results of the year (regular readers will remember that I did this last year, too).

The two best single-game SRS scores come courtesy of victories over the 49ers. Seattle won by 26 in Seattle (after adjusting for home field, a Margin of Victory of 23), giving them the same score as the Colts, who won by 20 points in San Francisco. Since the 49ers are 8.4 points better than average, each of those wins gets recorded as +31.4.

What about the biggest surprise of the year? That came when the Rams upset the Texans. St. Louis has a rating of -4.4; when the Rams traveled to Houston (SRS of -6.0), we would “expect” — when retrofitting the data — that the Texans would win by 1.4 points. Instead, St. Louis won by 25 points, producing a result that is 26.4 points off of our “projection.” That makes that game the biggest surprise of the year. The second biggest surprise? The Eagles (-1.3) winning in Oakland (-8.1) by 29 points, when they were expected to win by just 3.8 points.

As always, the table below is fully sortable and searchable (it’s showing 25 entries right now, but you can change that, too). Here’s how to read the first row. In week 3, Indianapolis traveled to San Francisco, and won, 27-7. That gave them a Margin of Victory of 23 (since the Colts were on the road), against a team that has a rating of +8.4. Therefore, the Colts get an SRS score of 31.4 in that game. The “Exp” column shows what you would expect to happen based on the location of the game and each team’s SRS rating: here, the Colts (6.9) in San Francisco (8.4) would be expected to lose by 4.5 points. Since Indianapolis actually won by 20 points, the Colts get a “Diff” of 24.5.

3Indianapolis Colts@San Francisco 49ersWin277238.431.4-4.524.5
2Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ersWin293238.431.43.222.8
8Cincinnati BengalsNew York JetsWin49937-7.529.51624
3Carolina PanthersNew York GiantsWin38035-6.628.419.118.9
4Denver BroncosPhiladelphia EaglesWin522029-1.327.715.916.1
9Philadelphia Eagles@Oakland RaidersWin492032-
4San Francisco 49ers@St. Louis RamsWin351127-4.422.69.814.2
5Arizona CardinalsCarolina PanthersWin226139.422.4-5.621.6
6St. Louis Rams@Houston TexansWin381328-622-1.426.4
5San Francisco 49ersHouston TexansWin34328-62217.413.6
3New Orleans SaintsArizona CardinalsWin317210.821.88.615.4
6Carolina Panthers@Minnesota VikingsWin351028-6.621.41312
1Denver BroncosBaltimore RavensWin4927190.419.414.27.8
4Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville JaguarsWin37337-18.118.922.111.9
4New Orleans SaintsMiami DolphinsWin3817180.118.19.411.6
7San Francisco 49ers@Tennessee TitansWin3117170.517.54.99.1
1Seattle Seahawks@Carolina PanthersWin12789.417.4-3.98.9
8Denver BroncosWashington RedskinsWin452121-3.917.118.65.4
3Dallas CowboysSt. Louis RamsWin31721-4.416.612.311.7
9Carolina PanthersAtlanta FalconsWin341021-51617.46.6
7Seattle Seahawks@Arizona CardinalsWin3422150.815.84.87.2
7Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia EaglesWin17317-1.315.73.210.8
6Detroit Lions@Cleveland BrownsWin311717-1.315.71.812.2
1Miami Dolphins@Cleveland BrownsWin231016-1.314.7-1.614.6
7Indianapolis ColtsDenver BroncosWin3933311.714.7-1.77.7
8Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin311321-6.414.612.85.2
4Tennessee TitansNew York JetsWin381322-7.514.51114
4Kansas City ChiefsNew York GiantsWin31721-6.614.416.57.5
2Denver Broncos@New York GiantsWin412321-6.614.415.32.7
6San Diego ChargersIndianapolis ColtsWin19976.913.9-4.114.1
2Miami Dolphins@Indianapolis ColtsWin242076.913.9-9.913.9
8San Francisco 49ersNJacksonville JaguarsWin421032-18.113.926.65.4
7Green Bay PackersCleveland BrownsWin311315-1.313.713.34.7
4Cleveland BrownsCincinnati BengalsWin17685.513.5-3.814.8
5Green Bay PackersDetroit LionsWin229103.513.58.54.5
9New England PatriotsPittsburgh SteelersWin553121-7.813.214.29.8
5Kansas City Chiefs@Tennessee TitansWin2617120.512.53.45.6
3Chicago Bears@Pittsburgh SteelersWin402320-7.812.2413
8New Orleans SaintsBuffalo BillsWin351715-31212.45.6
3Baltimore RavensHouston TexansWin30918-6129.411.6
1San Francisco 49ersGreen Bay PackersWin342839122.43.6
3Kansas City Chiefs@Philadelphia EaglesWin261613-1.311.75.24.8
5Indianapolis ColtsSeattle SeahawksWin342838.611.61.34.7
5Philadelphia Eagles@New York GiantsWin362118-6.611.42.412.6
2Green Bay PackersWashington RedskinsWin382015-3.911.115.92.1
4San Diego ChargersDallas CowboysWin302164.910.9-211
5Denver Broncos@Dallas CowboysWin514864.910.93.8-0.8
1Kansas City Chiefs@Jacksonville JaguarsWin28229-18.110.9224
3New England PatriotsTampa Bay BuccaneersWin23317-6.410.612.87.2
5New Orleans Saints@Chicago BearsWin261811-0.810.24.23.8
9Kansas City Chiefs@Buffalo BillsWin231313-3106.93.1
3Cincinnati BengalsGreen Bay PackersWin34301910-0.54.5
6San Francisco 49ersArizona CardinalsWin322090.89.810.61.4
8New York Giants@Philadelphia EaglesWin15711-1.39.7-8.416.4
7Cincinnati Bengals@Detroit LionsWin272463.59.5-0.93.9
9New York JetsNew Orleans SaintsWin262036.59.5-1117
8Green Bay Packers@Minnesota VikingsWin443116-6.69.412.60.4
7Houston Texans@Kansas City ChiefsLoss161726.98.9-15.914.9
2Dallas Cowboys@Kansas City ChiefsLoss161726.98.9-54
9Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Seattle SeahawksLoss242708.68.6-1815
6Pittsburgh Steelers@New York JetsWin19616-7.58.5-3.216.2
6Dallas CowboysWashington RedskinsWin311612-
7Carolina PanthersSt. Louis RamsWin301512-4.47.616.8-1.8
6Philadelphia Eagles@Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin312014-
2Buffalo BillsCarolina PanthersWin2423-29.47.4-9.410.4
5Cincinnati BengalsNew England PatriotsWin13643.
8New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsWin271770.
5Cleveland BrownsBuffalo BillsWin372410-374.78.3
5Oakland RaidersSan Diego ChargersWin27177-0.16.9-515
3Seattle SeahawksJacksonville JaguarsWin451725-18.16.929.7-1.7
6New England PatriotsNew Orleans SaintsWin302706.56.503
7New York GiantsMinnesota VikingsWin23713-6.66.4313
3Detroit Lions@Washington RedskinsWin272010-
5Baltimore Ravens@Miami DolphinsWin262360.16.1-2.65.6
8Arizona CardinalsAtlanta FalconsWin271311-568.85.2
1Oakland Raiders@Indianapolis ColtsLoss1721-16.95.9-1814
6Kansas City ChiefsOakland RaidersWin24714-8.15.918-1
1Houston Texans@San Diego ChargersWin31286-0.15.9-8.811.8
5Dallas CowboysDenver BroncosLoss4851-611.75.7-3.80.8
9Tennessee Titans@St. Louis RamsWin282110-
1Chicago BearsCincinnati BengalsWin242105.55.5-3.36.3
8Dallas Cowboys@Detroit LionsLoss303123.55.5-1.60.6
6Green Bay Packers@Baltimore RavensWin191750.45.45.6-3.6
1Green Bay Packers@San Francisco 49ersLoss2834-38.45.4-2.4-3.6
1Philadelphia Eagles@Washington RedskinsWin33279-3.95.1-0.46.4
7Buffalo Bills@Miami DolphinsWin232150.15.1-68
4New England Patriots@Atlanta FalconsWin302310-555.41.6
4Washington Redskins@Oakland RaidersWin241413-
3Denver BroncosOakland RaidersWin372113-8.14.922.7-6.7
2San Diego Chargers@Philadelphia EaglesWin33306-1.34.7-1.94.9
6Tennessee Titans@Seattle SeahawksLoss1320-48.64.6-11.14.1
6Seattle SeahawksTennessee TitansWin201340.54.511.1-4.1
9Miami DolphinsCincinnati BengalsWin2220-15.54.5-2.54.5
3Green Bay Packers@Cincinnati BengalsLoss3034-
2Arizona CardinalsDetroit LionsWin252113.
4Detroit LionsChicago BearsWin40325-
6Baltimore RavensGreen Bay PackersLoss1719-594-5.63.6
5Seattle Seahawks@Indianapolis ColtsLoss2834-36.93.9-1.3-4.7
7Denver Broncos@Indianapolis ColtsLoss3339-
9Minnesota Vikings@Dallas CowboysLoss2327-14.93.9-14.510.5
8Cleveland Browns@Kansas City ChiefsLoss1723-36.93.9-11.25.2
2Baltimore RavensCleveland BrownsWin1465-
8Seattle Seahawks@St. Louis RamsWin1498-4.43.610-5
2Houston TexansTennessee TitansWin302430.53.5-3.59.5
1Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans SaintsLoss1723-36.53.5-14.58.5
9Cleveland BrownsBaltimore RavensWin241830.
7New York JetsNew England PatriotsWin302703.43.4-811
2New York Jets@New England PatriotsLoss101303.43.4-1411
6New Orleans Saints@New England PatriotsLoss273003.43.40-3
6Cincinnati Bengals@Buffalo BillsWin27246-335.5-2.5
1New York Giants@Dallas CowboysLoss3136-24.92.9-14.59.5
8Detroit LionsDallas CowboysWin3130-
2Kansas City ChiefsDallas CowboysWin1716-24.92.95-4
9Washington RedskinsSan Diego ChargersWin30243-0.12.9-0.86.8
7San Diego Chargers@Jacksonville JaguarsWin24621-18.12.9153
4Houston TexansSeattle SeahawksLoss2023-68.62.6-11.58.5
1Tennessee Titans@Pittsburgh SteelersWin16910-
1New England Patriots@Buffalo BillsWin23215-323.4-1.4
8Kansas City ChiefsCleveland BrownsWin23173-1.31.711.2-5.2
5New England Patriots@Cincinnati BengalsLoss613-45.51.5-5.1-1.9
2Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans SaintsLoss1416-56.51.5-9.87.8
2Minnesota Vikings@Chicago BearsLoss30312-0.81.2-8.87.8
9Cincinnati Bengals@Miami DolphinsLoss202210.11.12.5-4.5
3New York JetsBuffalo BillsWin27204-31-1.68.6
9Houston TexansIndianapolis ColtsLoss2427-66.90.9-9.96.9
1St. Louis RamsArizona CardinalsWin272400.80.8-2.25.2
8St. Louis RamsSeattle SeahawksLoss914-88.60.6-105
1Carolina PanthersSeattle SeahawksLoss712-
3San Diego Chargers@Tennessee TitansLoss172000.50.5-3.60.6
7Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore RavensWin191600.40.4-5.28.2
4Buffalo BillsBaltimore RavensWin232000.40.4-0.43.4
3Cleveland Browns@Minnesota VikingsWin31277-
1Detroit LionsMinnesota VikingsWin34247-6.60.413-3
7Washington RedskinsChicago BearsWin45411-0.80.2-0.14.1
9Indianapolis Colts@Houston TexansWin27246-609.9-6.9
4Seattle Seahawks@Houston TexansWin23206-6011.5-8.5
5New York Jets@Atlanta FalconsWin30285-50-5.57.5
3Tennessee TitansSan Diego ChargersWin20170-0.1-0.13.6-0.6
2Detroit Lions@Arizona CardinalsLoss2125-10.8-0.2-0.4-3.6
2Atlanta FalconsSt. Louis RamsWin31244-4.4-
4Arizona Cardinals@Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin13106-6.4-0.44.2-1.2
6Buffalo BillsCincinnati BengalsLoss2427-65.5-0.5-5.52.5
7Detroit LionsCincinnati BengalsLoss2427-65.5-0.50.9-3.9
6Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ersLoss2032-98.4-0.6-10.6-1.4
4Minnesota VikingsNPittsburgh SteelersWin34277-7.8-
2Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh SteelersWin20107-7.8-0.816.3-6.3
1Cincinnati Bengals@Chicago BearsLoss21240-0.8-0.83.3-6.3
3Atlanta Falcons@Miami DolphinsLoss2327-10.1-0.9-8.14.1
2Carolina Panthers@Buffalo BillsLoss23242-3-19.4-10.4
5Detroit Lions@Green Bay PackersLoss922-109-1-8.5-4.5
6Jacksonville Jaguars@Denver BroncosLoss1935-1311.7-1.3-32.816.8
3Oakland Raiders@Denver BroncosLoss2137-1311.7-1.3-22.76.7
7Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay BuccaneersWin31235-6.4-
2New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin16145-6.4-1.49.8-7.8
2Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati BengalsLoss1020-75.5-1.5-16.36.3
4Chicago Bears@Detroit LionsLoss3240-53.5-1.5-7.2-0.8
1Buffalo BillsNew England PatriotsLoss2123-53.4-1.6-3.41.4
1New Orleans SaintsAtlanta FalconsWin23173-5-214.5-8.5
7St. Louis Rams@Carolina PanthersLoss1530-129.4-2.6-16.81.8
4Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo BillsLoss20230-3-30.4-3.4
1Minnesota Vikings@Detroit LionsLoss2434-73.5-3.5-133
8Miami Dolphins@New England PatriotsLoss1727-73.4-3.6-6.4-3.6
6Chicago BearsNew York GiantsWin27213-6.6-3.68.8-2.8
6New York Giants@Chicago BearsLoss2127-3-0.8-3.8-8.82.8
3Miami DolphinsAtlanta FalconsWin27231-5-48.1-4.1
9Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland BrownsLoss1824-3-1.3-4.3-1.3-4.7
1Arizona Cardinals@St. Louis RamsLoss24270-4.4-4.42.2-5.2
5Chicago BearsNew Orleans SaintsLoss1826-116.5-4.5-4.2-3.8
2Cleveland Browns@Baltimore RavensLoss614-50.4-4.6-4.7-3.3
1Dallas CowboysNew York GiantsWin36312-6.6-4.614.5-9.5
7Chicago Bears@Washington RedskinsLoss4145-1-3.9-4.90.1-4.1
5Tennessee TitansKansas City ChiefsLoss1726-126.9-5.1-3.4-5.6
6Denver BroncosJacksonville JaguarsWin351913-18.1-5.132.8-16.8
4Tampa Bay BuccaneersArizona CardinalsLoss1013-60.8-5.2-4.21.2
1Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New York JetsLoss17182-7.5-5.5-1.90.9
5Miami DolphinsBaltimore RavensLoss2326-60.4-5.62.6-5.6
9Dallas CowboysMinnesota VikingsWin27231-6.6-5.614.5-10.5
2Washington Redskins@Green Bay PackersLoss2038-159-6-15.9-2.1
7Cleveland Browns@Green Bay PackersLoss1331-159-6-13.3-4.7
9Buffalo BillsKansas City ChiefsLoss1323-136.9-6.1-6.9-3.1
3Philadelphia EaglesKansas City ChiefsLoss1626-136.9-6.1-5.2-4.8
2Philadelphia EaglesSan Diego ChargersLoss3033-6-0.1-6.11.9-4.9
4Dallas Cowboys@San Diego ChargersLoss2130-6-0.1-6.12-11
9Seattle SeahawksTampa Bay BuccaneersWin27240-6.4-6.418-15
7Arizona CardinalsSeattle SeahawksLoss2234-158.6-6.4-4.8-7.2
3Washington RedskinsDetroit LionsLoss2027-103.5-6.5-4.4-2.6
4Atlanta FalconsNew England PatriotsLoss2330-103.4-6.6-5.4-1.6
9San Diego Chargers@Washington RedskinsLoss2430-3-3.9-6.90.8-6.8
2Indianapolis ColtsMiami DolphinsLoss2024-70.1-6.99.9-13.9
8Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay PackersLoss3144-169-7-12.6-0.4
1Indianapolis ColtsOakland RaidersWin21171-8.1-7.118-14
6Washington Redskins@Dallas CowboysLoss1631-124.9-7.1-11.8-3.2
6Oakland Raiders@Kansas City ChiefsLoss724-146.9-7.1-181
6Indianapolis Colts@San Diego ChargersLoss919-7-0.1-7.14.1-14.1
5St. Louis RamsJacksonville JaguarsWin342011-18.1-7.116.8-2.8
1Baltimore Ravens@Denver BroncosLoss2749-1911.7-7.3-14.2-7.8
7New England Patriots@New York JetsLoss27300-7.5-7.58-11
2New England PatriotsNew York JetsWin13100-7.5-7.514-11
8Oakland RaidersPittsburgh SteelersWin21180-7.8-
7Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh SteelersLoss16190-7.8-7.85.2-8.2
7Miami DolphinsBuffalo BillsLoss2123-5-3-86-8
7Kansas City ChiefsHouston TexansWin1716-2-6-815.9-14.9
8Pittsburgh Steelers@Oakland RaidersLoss18210-8.1-8.1-2.7-0.3
3Minnesota VikingsCleveland BrownsLoss2731-7-1.3-8.3-2.3-1.7
1New York JetsTampa Bay BuccaneersWin1817-2-6.4-8.41.9-0.9
8Buffalo Bills@New Orleans SaintsLoss1735-156.5-8.5-12.4-5.6
7Tennessee TitansSan Francisco 49ersLoss1731-178.4-8.6-4.9-9.1
2Chicago BearsMinnesota VikingsWin3130-2-6.6-8.68.8-7.8
2Tennessee Titans@Houston TexansLoss2430-3-6-93.5-9.5
2St. Louis Rams@Atlanta FalconsLoss2431-4-5-9-2.4-4.6
4Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland BrownsLoss617-8-1.3-9.33.8-14.8
2New York GiantsDenver BroncosLoss2341-2111.7-9.3-15.3-2.7
8Washington Redskins@Denver BroncosLoss2145-2111.7-9.3-18.6-5.4
1Pittsburgh SteelersTennessee TitansLoss916-100.5-9.5-5.3-1.7
9St. Louis RamsTennessee TitansLoss2128-100.5-9.5-1.9-5.1
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta FalconsLoss2331-5-5-10-4.4-3.6
8Atlanta Falcons@Arizona CardinalsLoss1327-110.8-10.2-8.8-5.2
1Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia EaglesLoss2733-9-1.3-10.30.4-6.4
9New Orleans Saints@New York JetsLoss2026-3-7.5-10.511-17
2Oakland RaidersJacksonville JaguarsWin1997-18.1-11.113.1-3.1
5Buffalo Bills@Cleveland BrownsLoss2437-10-1.3-11.3-4.7-8.3
3Buffalo Bills@New York JetsLoss2027-4-7.5-11.51.6-8.6
4Miami Dolphins@New Orleans SaintsLoss1738-186.5-11.5-9.4-11.6
8Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina PanthersLoss1331-219.4-11.6-12.8-5.2
9Atlanta Falcons@Carolina PanthersLoss1034-219.4-11.6-17.4-6.6
1San Diego ChargersHouston TexansLoss2831-6-6-128.8-11.8
7Philadelphia EaglesDallas CowboysLoss317-174.9-12.1-3.2-10.8
5Carolina Panthers@Arizona CardinalsLoss622-130.8-12.25.6-21.6
5Atlanta FalconsNew York JetsLoss2830-5-7.5-12.55.5-7.5
6Cleveland BrownsDetroit LionsLoss1731-173.5-13.5-1.8-12.2
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New England PatriotsLoss323-173.4-13.6-12.8-7.2
4Pittsburgh SteelersNMinnesota VikingsLoss2734-7-6.6-13.6-1.2-5.8
4New York Giants@Kansas City ChiefsLoss731-216.9-14.1-16.5-7.5
2San Francisco 49ers@Seattle SeahawksLoss329-238.6-14.4-3.2-22.8
3Arizona Cardinals@New Orleans SaintsLoss731-216.5-14.5-8.6-15.4
2Jacksonville Jaguars@Oakland RaidersLoss919-7-8.1-15.1-13.13.1
5San Diego Chargers@Oakland RaidersLoss1727-7-8.1-15.15-15
6Tampa Bay BuccaneersPhiladelphia EaglesLoss2031-14-1.3-15.3-2.1-8.9
5Jacksonville Jaguars@St. Louis RamsLoss2034-11-4.4-15.4-16.82.8
1Cleveland BrownsMiami DolphinsLoss1023-160.1-15.91.6-14.6
3San Francisco 49ersIndianapolis ColtsLoss727-236.9-16.14.5-24.5
3St. Louis Rams@Dallas CowboysLoss731-214.9-16.1-12.3-11.7
3Jacksonville Jaguars@Seattle SeahawksLoss1745-258.6-16.4-29.71.7
4Oakland RaidersWashington RedskinsLoss1424-13-3.9-16.9-1.2-8.8
4Philadelphia Eagles@Denver BroncosLoss2052-2911.7-17.3-15.9-16.1
3Houston Texans@Baltimore RavensLoss930-180.4-17.6-9.4-11.6
9Pittsburgh Steelers@New England PatriotsLoss3155-213.4-17.6-14.2-9.8
8Philadelphia EaglesNew York GiantsLoss715-11-6.6-17.68.4-16.4
6Minnesota VikingsCarolina PanthersLoss1035-289.4-18.6-13-12
4St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ersLoss1135-278.4-18.6-9.8-14.2
5New York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesLoss2136-18-1.3-19.3-2.4-12.6
5Houston Texans@San Francisco 49ersLoss334-288.4-19.6-17.4-13.6
7Minnesota Vikings@New York GiantsLoss723-13-6.6-19.6-3-13
3Pittsburgh SteelersChicago BearsLoss2340-20-0.8-20.8-4-13
7Jacksonville JaguarsSan Diego ChargersLoss624-21-0.1-21.1-15-3
4New York Jets@Tennessee TitansLoss1338-220.5-21.5-11-14
1Jacksonville JaguarsKansas City ChiefsLoss228-296.9-22.1-22-4
8Jacksonville JaguarsNSan Francisco 49ersLoss1042-328.4-23.6-26.6-5.4
6New York JetsPittsburgh SteelersLoss619-16-7.8-23.83.2-16.2
3New York Giants@Carolina PanthersLoss038-359.4-25.6-19.1-18.9
4Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis ColtsLoss337-376.9-30.1-22.1-11.9
8New York Jets@Cincinnati BengalsLoss949-375.5-31.5-16-24
6Houston TexansSt. Louis RamsLoss1338-28-4.4-32.41.4-26.4
9Oakland RaidersPhiladelphia EaglesLoss2049-32-1.3-33.3-3.8-25.2

There’s a lot to digest, so I’ll leave the analysis to you. But there’s one more thing I want to do with that data: figure out which teams are most/least consistent. If you take the absolute value1 of the difference column for each team in each game, you get a sense of the most/least consistent teams. If you ask me, the results here match my intuition: the Texans, Jets, Colts, 49ers, and Eagles are the least consistent teams, while teams like Green Bay (again, this is prior to Monday Night) and Detroit have been successful but flying under the radar. The “variability” of each team — defined as the average of the absolute value of the “Diff” column in the table above — is in the “Var” column in the table below.

1Houston Texans8-9.43.4-612.92-6
2New York Jets9-7.2-0.3-7.512.25-4
3Indianapolis Colts87.4-0.56.912.26-2
4San Francisco 49ers88.8-0.38.411.86-2
5Philadelphia Eagles9-0.3-0.9-1.311.84-5
6Carolina Panthers812.3-2.89.410.75-3
7New York Giants8-9.52.9-6.610.42-6
8Oakland Raiders8-7.4-0.7-8.19.33-5
9New Orleans Saints88.8-
10Seattle Seahawks99.6-18.68.78-1
11St. Louis Rams9-4.80.4-4.48.53-6
12San Diego Chargers83-3.1-0.18.44-4
13Miami Dolphins8-
14Denver Broncos814.9-3.211.787-1
15Cleveland Browns9-3.11.8-1.37.74-5
16Pittsburgh Steelers8-6.1-1.6-7.87.72-6
17Cincinnati Bengals96-
18Arizona Cardinals8-
19Dallas Cowboys95-
20Minnesota Vikings8-7.91.3-6.66.81-7
21Tampa Bay Buccaneers8-8.31.9-6.46.20-8
22Tennessee Titans80.8-
23Jacksonville Jaguars8-21.93.7-18.16.10-8
24Baltimore Ravens80.30.20.463-5
25Buffalo Bills9-5.62.6-35.73-6
26New England Patriots96.2-
27Kansas City Chiefs911.2-
28Chicago Bears70.6-1.4-0.85.54-3
29Atlanta Falcons8-5.30.2-55.22-6
30Washington Redskins8-6.32.3-3.94.93-5
31Detroit Lions82.513.53.95-3
32Green Bay Packers78.10.993.35-2
  1. By definition, the sum of all the “Diff” results for each game will be zero for each team on the season level. []
  • Chase Stuart

    The two “least” surprising games: Minnesota losing at home by 16 to Green Bay, and Oakland beating Pittsburgh by 3 at home.

  • james

    In the first table with the season SRS, is HFA accounted into that since some teams played more home games than road games?

  • Ty

    This is somewhat off topic, but I would like to know your opinion on the worth of a superstar non-QB. I know we have a lot of data on QBs to determine what their expected output is, but that isn’t the same for any other position. How many points is a superstar player like Geno Atkins worth against opposing offenses, or Calvin Johnson? I have been doing small research on this (mainly for defensive players), and I think a superstar defensive player would be worth about 3 points (so a league average defense that gives up 23 points a game would average 26 points with Geno Atkins out and being replaced by a backup caliber player). Obviously, with schemes and the quality of each backup, it isn’t as simple as this, but I am just trying to equate each player to how many points they are worth (similar to how baseball uses WAR to equate how many runs (and wins) each player is worth).

    • Richie

      I’m not sure how far you’ve dug into this, and I haven’t thought much about it before.

      Your assumptions: a league average defense gives up 23 points per game.
      Geno Atkins is worth 3 points above replacement. Which I would estimate to mean that Atkins is worth about 1.5 to 2 points above average (as opposed to replacement).

      So if you take a 23 ppg defense full of average players, and upgrade every player to superstar level, you could shave 11 x 1.5 = 16.5 points off that for a 6.5 ppg defense.

      Since I don’t think anybody has every fielded 11 superstars on defense, and I think the lowest ppg post-merger was the 1977 Falcons at 9.2 points per game, it would seem that maybe the 3 ppg estimate would work.

      • George

        This is a really interesting subject, when you can make a points adjustment for substituting players in and out (and again I know this is a touch off topic) and something I would be keen to understand more from a modelling point of view (e.g. along the lines of calculating ratings for teams via linear weights etc. – instead of doing Least Squares or SRS on scores for example to derive a rating and then hence scores).

        I think it also depends on the type of play of a given team and the player in question (e.g. I don’t think Geno Atkins would be as worth as many points as a Calvin Johnson because of the way Detroit throws to him in triple coverage and effectively gets him to out-jump people which is right because he can do it – but fundamentally wrong). It’s also more difficult to judge for football because of the way the points are scored (with spikes of scores around 3 and 7 point separations and why in terms of the spread certain numbers are referred to as largely irrelevant e.g. 4 and 5).

        The only thing I have on this was from a different sport (so I don’t know if this can be applied really) – first games of the first round of the NBA playoffs this year – all games had spreads and totals that were within a point of what you could derive from running least squares (give or take a point). The only game that was off was the Lakers, where the points total was off (from memory) by about 16 points for the loss of Kobe. I just don’t know how you get to this?

        I think it also kind of relates back to the point I had on the Colts line last weekend (at only being -1.5). I had this at -11/-12 (which asked the question for me – what am I not seeing?). I still don’t understand if I was right (in principle) or their line was right (given the losses on both sides e.g. even though he played the fact that Heyward-Bey has been injured for the Colts and Case Keenum in at QB for the Texans). I just don’t get where the adjustment of around +9/+10 to the Texans came from especially as they were running with a rookie QB (and this subject is something that I would be keen to get a better understanding of)?

        • Ty

          Instead of using a strict points scored, I’m trying to use both points scored and yards per play. The more yards you gain per play, the more effective your offense will be (you will score more points), and the less yards per play you give up, the more effective your defense will be (you will give up less points). Even with the way football scores are structured (1, 2, 3, 7, 8), I still think we could put a worth on how many points a certain player is worth. Example: A player is worth 2.5 points, obviously, you can’t score 2.5 points, the same way that a pitcher in baseball doesn’t give up 3.45 runs… it is just averaged out that way.

          I apologize if I didn’t make any sense. My main point is that with a superstar like Geno Atkins, JJ Watt, Patrick Willis, when they are on the field, their teams are going to give up less yards per play than when they are off the field, and yards per play is correlated with scoring (I don’t know the exact correlation, but I know that it is strong), which means that a players worth can be measured by how many points they are worth compared to the average player or replacement level player. With the way football is designed (schemes, lots of moving parts), it is a lot harder to do this, but I think it can be done.

          For your Indy/Houston question, maybe you used Matt Schaub’s career performance (prior to this season) as his real skill level, which would obviously make Houston better, but Schaub has been declining and he isn’t playing much better than a low-level starter, which wouldn’t boost Houston too much lower when Case Keenum comes in at QB. I can’t think of anything else (besides not accounting for HFA), because that is a very large spread you have.

          • George

            Totally agree with your points above in many respects (sorry for not coming back to you sooner – have been really busy). I do like the idea of factoring yards per play in as well as I think it is a worthwhile metric. I think you have uncovered the two difficult points though with football, the constant changing of players and schemes, and the scoring structure. I think these are two of the things that make it very difficult to put a number on things. There is already crude ideas out there at the moment, e.g. Bill Simmons Grantland column last week, referring to Chad Millman’s concept about Point Spread Value above Replacement – which we saw in effect last week with a 9 point line drop in the Green Bay vs Philadelphia game (so the question being – is Aaron Rodgers really worth 9 points relative to an average back up)?

            Re: the Houston vs Indy line – I was still confident in the number – if you work the numbers based on the SRS after the game as above (in other words taking into account the loss which resulted in a decrease in the Indianapolis SRS, and an increase in the Houston SRS – you’d have 6.9 -3 (for the HFA) -(-6) – which would still suggest a line of -10. I just really don’t understand if there was a logical reason for the -1.5 with that one (even though it turned out to be fairly close).

            • Ty

              One win in the NFL is worth 35 points (according to Tom Tango), so if the line assumes that Aaron Rodgers is worth 9 points, that means Aaron Rodgers would be worth 4 wins above replacement (9 x 16) / 35 ~= 4.11. I’m not sure what I replacement level team’s record would be, though I would assume it is 2 or 3 wins, but putting someone like Rodgers onto a replacement level team (theoretically speaking, since things just don’t work that way, like in baseball), they would be about a team 1-2 wins below .500.

              This is still a topic I want to study, more, as soon as I have time to (especially for non-QB positions).

    • James

      Ty, Chase had a series of posts about this topic back in April. You can look up his work, but this is the ‘conclusion’: http://www.footballperspective.com/how-to-determine-the-appropriate-salary-cap-values-for-veterans-part-ii/

      It’s fundamentally based on AV, or Approximate Value, which is from PFR and described here: http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/approximate-value-methodology/

      The last two years Atkins has averaged 16 AV, which would make him worth a bit more than one marginal win. Since it’s 35 points to a win in the NFL (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/base_scores/) Atkins would be worth somewhere around 2.4 ppg the past two seasons. Advanced NFL Stats is in the same range, saying he was worth 3.5 ppg without counting any negative plays (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defteamyear.php?year=2012&team=CIN&season=all).

      Overall, I’d say you’re in the right area!

      • Ty

        James, thanks for the links, they really helped me, and I am going to use them for future reference, as this is something I want to personally study (especially for non-QB positions). I really think something like this is undervalued (people not quite knowing the true value of a player’s production. As I said before, it is a lot harder to determine a player’s production in football than it is in baseball, but I think it can be done. Within footballs chaos hides many one-on-one battles going on.

  • George

    Just wanted to chip in on this – I’m just really not getting the NFL this year at all from a ratings point of view, I just can’t get a feel for who teams are (e.g. the New York Jets – seriously what’s going on there – or the Saints for that matter and Kansas City – who I have as winners, but they don’t win by as much as I would expect them to). Ironically I am probably happier with putting the numbers together than ever before and just feel somewhat lost and confused.

    Pick-wise (I’ve used wagerminds to act as a sandbox environment as I just wanted to test this from a personal point of view), I’ve gone (money line/ats and totals) 61-45-0 for approx. -14 units (basically where things that I’ve had less confidence in have come in, and locks have missed). Re: the Jets point above – I haven’t been right with them on a pick yet this year (e.g. based on ratings prior to the weekend they had about a 4% chance of winning and a 15% chance of winning via the handicap).

    The ratings were off of where I would expect the standard deviation of error (re: stern) to be prior to the weekend and I just think certain things aren’t there at the moment and don’t feel right (I think there are probably 3-5 point shifts for at least a couple of teams before the season is finished). I usually wait until things appear to be stable before applying weighting to more recent games but think that this may be holding the key to trying to explain what is going on.

    Even the position of certain lines I don’t get (e.g. the Colts – who I am fairly happy with the rating of – at the weekend I had by around 12, yet the line was only 1.5 and the result was by 3). I know Houston are a slightly different team with the change at QB, and with some of the issues with the Colts, I just couldn’t figure where you’d get 1.5 from?