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Looking back: The most surprising games of the year

Five weeks ago, I looked at the most surprising results of the season. It’s time to update that post now that most of the season is in the books.

First, we need to rank the teams. The table below shows each team’s current Simple Rating System rating through week 15. As a reminder, the SRS is simply the sum of a team’s margin of victory and strength of schedule.

RkTeamGMOVSOSSRS
1New England Patriots1413.4-0.213.3
2San Francisco 49ers149.91.711.7
3Seattle Seahawks149.81.210.9
4Denver Broncos1410.1-0.79.4
5Atlanta Falcons148-17
6New York Giants144.91.76.6
7Chicago Bears145.40.86.2
8Houston Texans148.1-26.1
9Green Bay Packers143.71.65.3
10Washington Redskins142.213.2
11Baltimore Ravens142.9-0.82.1
12New Orleans Saints140.71.11.8
13Cincinnati Bengals144.4-2.81.7
14Minnesota Vikings140.80.51.3
15Dallas Cowboys14-0.81.70.9
16Carolina Panthers14-1.62.10.5
17Tampa Bay Buccaneers140.4-0.20.2
18Pittsburgh Steelers141.2-1.9-0.7
19St. Louis Rams14-4.33-1.3
20Miami Dolphins14-1.1-1-2.1
21San Diego Chargers14-0.9-1.5-2.4
22Detroit Lions14-3.10.6-2.5
23Arizona Cardinals14-5.62.5-3.1
24New York Jets14-4.60.8-3.8
25Cleveland Browns14-2.6-2.2-4.7
26Indianapolis Colts14-3.5-2.3-5.8
27Buffalo Bills14-6.9-0.1-6.9
28Philadelphia Eagles14-8.71-7.7
29Tennessee Titans14-7.9-0.7-8.7
30Oakland Raiders14-10.4-1.3-11.7
31Jacksonville Jaguars14-11.7-1.5-13.2
32Kansas City Chiefs14-12.3-1.3-13.6

Eli does not like being surprised.

Half the time, Eli does not like being surprised.

Now that we have each team’s SRS score, it’s easy to come up with a projected game score. For example, since Miami has an SRS of -2.1 and Tennessee has an SRS of -8.7, this means the Dolphins are 6.5 points (rounding error) better than the Titans. Therefore, if Tennessee played at Miami, we would expect Miami to win by 9.5 points.

Well, Tennessee did travel to Miami, but the Titans won the game 37-3. Ouch. Instead of a 9.5-point win, the Dolphins suffered a 34-point loss. Therefore, this game was shocking to the tune of -43.5 points from the standpoint of the Dolphins. That makes it the most surprising game of the year.

Such a method is obviously going to be slanted towards blowouts. What if we wanted to just know which results were the most shocking? If you sort the table below by EXP_MOV — that’s the expected score — and type in “Loss” in the search box, you can see the biggest upsets.

According to the SRS, there were two huge upsets this year that only look more surprising in retrospect. The Patriots should have beaten the Cardinals by 19.4 points in Foxboro, but somehow lost in the final seconds. Meanwhile, the Saints at home against the Chiefs projected as an 18.4-point New Orleans win; it ended up being a Kansas City overtime victory.

You can also type in your favorite team name in the search box to see their most surprising results. For the Jets, the most surprisingly bad game was a 21-point home loss to Miami. On the positive side, the Jets defeated the Colts by 26 points. Eli Manning and the Giants had two games that were over 30 points away from expectations. Again San Francisco, New York shockingly won by 23 on the road, while in Atlanta, the Giants were shut out 34-0.

What results surprise you?

WeekTmH/ROppTMSRSOPP_SRSEXP_MOVPFPAWLTMOVDIFF
10Miami DolphinsHTennessee Titans-2.1-8.79.5337Loss-34-43.5
14Arizona CardinalsRSeattle Seahawks-3.110.9-17058Loss-58-41
15Tampa Bay BuccaneersRNew Orleans Saints0.21.8-4.6041Loss-41-36.4
6San Francisco 49ersHNew York Giants11.76.68.1326Loss-23-31.1
15New York GiantsRAtlanta Falcons6.67-3.4034Loss-34-30.6
1Cincinnati BengalsRBaltimore Ravens1.72.1-3.41344Loss-31-27.6
3Carolina PanthersHNew York Giants0.56.6-3.1736Loss-29-25.9
15Detroit LionsRArizona Cardinals-2.5-3.1-2.51038Loss-28-25.5
15San Diego ChargersHCarolina Panthers-2.40.50.1731Loss-24-24.1
12Green Bay PackersRNew York Giants5.36.6-4.31038Loss-28-23.7
8St. Louis RamsNNew England Patriots-1.313.3-14.6745Loss-38-23.4
8Minnesota VikingsHTampa Bay Buccaneers1.30.24.11736Loss-19-23.1
7Baltimore RavensRHouston Texans2.16.1-71343Loss-30-23
8New York JetsHMiami Dolphins-3.8-2.11.3930Loss-21-22.3
6Houston TexansHGreen Bay Packers6.15.33.82442Loss-18-21.8
5Jacksonville JaguarsHChicago Bears-13.26.2-16.4341Loss-38-21.6
4New York JetsHSan Francisco 49ers-3.811.7-12.5034Loss-34-21.5
3New Orleans SaintsHKansas City Chiefs1.8-13.618.42427Loss-3-21.4
2New England PatriotsHArizona Cardinals13.3-3.119.41820Loss-2-21.4
6Indianapolis ColtsRNew York Jets-5.8-3.8-4.9935Loss-26-21.1
5Buffalo BillsRSan Francisco 49ers-6.911.7-21.6345Loss-42-20.4
10New York GiantsRCincinnati Bengals6.61.71.91331Loss-18-19.9
11St. Louis RamsHNew York Jets-1.3-3.85.51327Loss-14-19.5
9Tennessee TitansHChicago Bears-8.76.2-11.92051Loss-31-19.1
2Tennessee TitansRSan Diego Chargers-8.7-2.4-9.21038Loss-28-18.8
6Atlanta FalconsHOakland Raiders7-11.721.72320Win3-18.7
3San Francisco 49ersRMinnesota Vikings11.71.37.41324Loss-11-18.4
10Oakland RaidersRBaltimore Ravens-11.72.1-16.82055Loss-35-18.2
15Buffalo BillsHSeattle Seahawks-6.910.9-14.91750Loss-33-18.1
14Houston TexansRNew England Patriots6.113.3-10.21442Loss-28-17.8
3San Diego ChargersHAtlanta Falcons-2.47-6.5327Loss-24-17.5
10New England PatriotsHBuffalo Bills13.3-6.923.23731Win6-17.2
14New Orleans SaintsRNew York Giants1.86.6-7.82752Loss-25-17.2
13Carolina PanthersRKansas City Chiefs0.5-13.611.12127Loss-6-17.1
7New England PatriotsHNew York Jets13.3-3.820.12926Win3-17.1
11Chicago BearsRSan Francisco 49ers6.211.7-8.5732Loss-25-16.5
11Houston TexansHJacksonville Jaguars6.1-13.222.34337Win6-16.3
10Carolina PanthersHDenver Broncos0.59.4-5.91436Loss-22-16.1
10San Francisco 49ersHSt. Louis Rams11.7-1.3162424Tie0-16
8Washington RedskinsRPittsburgh Steelers3.2-0.70.91227Loss-15-15.9
12New York JetsHNew England Patriots-3.813.3-14.11949Loss-30-15.9
1New York GiantsHDallas Cowboys6.60.98.71724Loss-7-15.7
3Indianapolis ColtsHJacksonville Jaguars-5.8-13.210.41722Loss-5-15.4
3Cleveland BrownsHBuffalo Bills-4.7-6.95.21424Loss-10-15.2
12Arizona CardinalsHSt. Louis Rams-3.1-1.31.21731Loss-14-15.2
4Seattle SeahawksRSt. Louis Rams10.9-1.39.21319Loss-6-15.2
1Seattle SeahawksRArizona Cardinals10.9-3.1111620Loss-4-15
14Pittsburgh SteelersHSan Diego Chargers-0.7-2.44.72434Loss-10-14.7
15Philadelphia EaglesHCincinnati Bengals-7.71.7-6.41334Loss-21-14.6
1Minnesota VikingsHJacksonville Jaguars1.3-13.217.52623Win3-14.5
8Seattle SeahawksRDetroit Lions10.9-2.510.52428Loss-4-14.5
15St. Louis RamsHMinnesota Vikings-1.31.30.42236Loss-14-14.4
9New York GiantsHPittsburgh Steelers6.6-0.710.32024Loss-4-14.3
1Buffalo BillsRNew York Jets-6.9-3.8-6.12848Loss-20-13.9
9Washington RedskinsHCarolina Panthers3.20.55.71321Loss-8-13.7
4Dallas CowboysHChicago Bears0.96.2-2.31834Loss-16-13.7
14Atlanta FalconsRCarolina Panthers70.53.52030Loss-10-13.5
6Cincinnati BengalsRCleveland Browns1.7-4.73.42434Loss-10-13.4
3Philadelphia EaglesRArizona Cardinals-7.7-3.1-7.6627Loss-21-13.4
4New York GiantsRPhiladelphia Eagles6.6-7.711.31719Loss-2-13.3
12Seattle SeahawksRMiami Dolphins10.9-2.110.12124Loss-3-13.1
13San Francisco 49ersRSt. Louis Rams11.7-1.3101316Loss-3-13
11Indianapolis ColtsRNew England Patriots-5.813.3-222459Loss-35-13
10Pittsburgh SteelersHKansas City Chiefs-0.7-13.615.91613Win3-12.9
14Tampa Bay BuccaneersHPhiladelphia Eagles0.2-7.710.92123Loss-2-12.9
15Baltimore RavensHDenver Broncos2.19.4-4.31734Loss-17-12.7
10Jacksonville JaguarsHIndianapolis Colts-13.2-5.8-4.41027Loss-17-12.6
8Green Bay PackersHJacksonville Jaguars5.3-13.221.52415Win9-12.5
7Cincinnati BengalsHPittsburgh Steelers1.7-0.75.41724Loss-7-12.4
3Denver BroncosHHouston Texans9.46.16.32531Loss-6-12.3
15Cleveland BrownsHWashington Redskins-4.73.2-52138Loss-17-12
15Chicago BearsHGreen Bay Packers6.25.33.91321Loss-8-11.9
12Denver BroncosRKansas City Chiefs9.4-13.619.9179Win8-11.9
3Washington RedskinsHCincinnati Bengals3.21.74.63138Loss-7-11.6
15New England PatriotsHSan Francisco 49ers13.311.74.63441Loss-7-11.6
14Kansas City ChiefsRCleveland Browns-13.6-4.7-11.8730Loss-23-11.2
6Kansas City ChiefsRTampa Bay Buccaneers-13.60.2-16.81038Loss-28-11.2
8Kansas City ChiefsHOakland Raiders-13.6-11.71.11626Loss-10-11.1
5Green Bay PackersRIndianapolis Colts5.3-5.88.12730Loss-3-11.1
3Pittsburgh SteelersROakland Raiders-0.7-11.783134Loss-3-11
11Philadelphia EaglesRWashington Redskins-7.73.2-14631Loss-25-11
2New York JetsRPittsburgh Steelers-3.8-0.7-6.11027Loss-17-10.9
2Chicago BearsRGreen Bay Packers6.25.3-2.11023Loss-13-10.9
5Cincinnati BengalsHMiami Dolphins1.7-2.16.81317Loss-4-10.8
11Oakland RaidersHNew Orleans Saints-11.71.8-10.51738Loss-21-10.5
15Kansas City ChiefsROakland Raiders-13.6-11.7-4.9015Loss-15-10.1
10Chicago BearsHHouston Texans6.26.13.1613Loss-7-10.1
5Tennessee TitansRMinnesota Vikings-8.71.3-12.9730Loss-23-10.1
12Minnesota VikingsRChicago Bears1.36.2-7.91028Loss-18-10.1
6Arizona CardinalsHBuffalo Bills-3.1-6.96.81619Loss-3-9.8
11Kansas City ChiefsHCincinnati Bengals-13.61.7-12.2628Loss-22-9.8
5Baltimore RavensRKansas City Chiefs2.1-13.612.796Win3-9.7
1New Orleans SaintsHWashington Redskins1.83.21.63240Loss-8-9.6
8New Orleans SaintsRDenver Broncos1.89.4-10.51434Loss-20-9.5
9Jacksonville JaguarsHDetroit Lions-13.2-2.5-7.61431Loss-17-9.4
2Oakland RaidersRMiami Dolphins-11.7-2.1-12.61335Loss-22-9.4
11Carolina PanthersHTampa Bay Buccaneers0.50.23.32127Loss-6-9.3
10Philadelphia EaglesHDallas Cowboys-7.70.9-5.72338Loss-15-9.3
2San Francisco 49ersHDetroit Lions11.7-2.517.22719Win8-9.2
5Arizona CardinalsRSt. Louis Rams-3.1-1.3-4.8317Loss-14-9.2
3New England PatriotsRBaltimore Ravens13.32.18.23031Loss-1-9.2
8Arizona CardinalsHSan Francisco 49ers-3.111.7-11.8324Loss-21-9.2
11Atlanta FalconsHArizona Cardinals7-3.113.12319Win4-9.1
4Kansas City ChiefsHSan Diego Chargers-13.6-2.4-8.12037Loss-17-8.9
14Chicago BearsRMinnesota Vikings6.21.31.91421Loss-7-8.9
13Baltimore RavensHPittsburgh Steelers2.1-0.75.82023Loss-3-8.8
1Miami DolphinsRHouston Texans-2.16.1-11.21030Loss-20-8.8
2Kansas City ChiefsRBuffalo Bills-13.6-6.9-9.61735Loss-18-8.4
7Tampa Bay BuccaneersHNew Orleans Saints0.21.81.42835Loss-7-8.4
13Detroit LionsHIndianapolis Colts-2.5-5.86.23335Loss-2-8.2
5Pittsburgh SteelersHPhiladelphia Eagles-0.7-7.7101614Win2-8
6Pittsburgh SteelersRTennessee Titans-0.7-8.752326Loss-3-8
11Denver BroncosHSan Diego Chargers9.4-2.414.83023Win7-7.8
2Baltimore RavensRPhiladelphia Eagles2.1-7.76.82324Loss-1-7.8
3Miami DolphinsHNew York Jets-2.1-3.84.72023Loss-3-7.7
12Dallas CowboysHWashington Redskins0.93.20.73138Loss-7-7.7
8Chicago BearsHCarolina Panthers6.20.58.72322Win1-7.7
12Oakland RaidersRCincinnati Bengals-11.71.7-16.41034Loss-24-7.6
7Carolina PanthersHDallas Cowboys0.50.92.61419Loss-5-7.6
4Atlanta FalconsHCarolina Panthers70.59.53028Win2-7.5
12Pittsburgh SteelersRCleveland Browns-0.7-4.71.11420Loss-6-7.1
1Cleveland BrownsHPhiladelphia Eagles-4.7-7.761617Loss-1-7
2Minnesota VikingsRIndianapolis Colts1.3-5.842023Loss-3-7
6Minnesota VikingsRWashington Redskins1.33.2-52638Loss-12-7
2Dallas CowboysRSeattle Seahawks0.910.9-13727Loss-20-7
15Jacksonville JaguarsRMiami Dolphins-13.2-2.1-14.1324Loss-21-6.9
4Oakland RaidersRDenver Broncos-11.79.4-24.1637Loss-31-6.9
4Buffalo BillsHNew England Patriots-6.913.3-17.22852Loss-24-6.8
11Miami DolphinsRBuffalo Bills-2.1-6.91.81419Loss-5-6.8
13Dallas CowboysHPhiladelphia Eagles0.9-7.711.73833Win5-6.7
13Jacksonville JaguarsRBuffalo Bills-13.2-6.9-9.31834Loss-16-6.7
3Seattle SeahawksHGreen Bay Packers10.95.38.61412Win2-6.6
12Tennessee TitansRJacksonville Jaguars-8.7-13.21.51924Loss-5-6.5
3St. Louis RamsRChicago Bears-1.36.2-10.5623Loss-17-6.5
7St. Louis RamsHGreen Bay Packers-1.35.3-3.62030Loss-10-6.4
2New Orleans SaintsRCarolina Panthers1.80.5-1.72735Loss-8-6.3
4Detroit LionsHMinnesota Vikings-2.51.3-0.81320Loss-7-6.2
9Cleveland BrownsHBaltimore Ravens-4.72.1-3.81525Loss-10-6.2
5Washington RedskinsHAtlanta Falcons3.27-0.81724Loss-7-6.2
10Atlanta FalconsRNew Orleans Saints71.82.22731Loss-4-6.2
4Tennessee TitansRHouston Texans-8.76.1-17.81438Loss-24-6.2
8Tennessee TitansHIndianapolis Colts-8.7-5.80.11319Loss-6-6.1
3Detroit LionsRTennessee Titans-2.5-8.73.14144Loss-3-6.1
13San Diego ChargersHCincinnati Bengals-2.41.7-1.11320Loss-7-5.9
15New York JetsRTennessee Titans-3.8-8.71.81014Loss-4-5.8
7Buffalo BillsHTennessee Titans-6.9-8.74.73435Loss-1-5.7
11Dallas CowboysHCleveland Browns0.9-4.78.72320Win3-5.7
7Chicago BearsHDetroit Lions6.2-2.511.7137Win6-5.7
4Green Bay PackersHNew Orleans Saints5.31.86.52827Win1-5.5
13New England PatriotsRMiami Dolphins13.3-2.112.42316Win7-5.4
2Denver BroncosRAtlanta Falcons9.47-0.72127Loss-6-5.3
14Denver BroncosROakland Raiders9.4-11.718.12613Win13-5.1
4Jacksonville JaguarsHCincinnati Bengals-13.21.7-11.91027Loss-17-5.1
1Indianapolis ColtsRChicago Bears-5.86.2-152141Loss-20-5
14Cincinnati BengalsHDallas Cowboys1.70.93.71920Loss-1-4.7
1Green Bay PackersHSan Francisco 49ers5.311.7-3.42230Loss-8-4.6
2Washington RedskinsRSt. Louis Rams3.2-1.31.52831Loss-3-4.5
10San Diego ChargersRTampa Bay Buccaneers-2.40.2-5.62434Loss-10-4.4
13Chicago BearsHSeattle Seahawks6.210.9-1.71723Loss-6-4.3
13Denver BroncosHTampa Bay Buccaneers9.40.212.23123Win8-4.2
9Houston TexansHBuffalo Bills6.1-6.916219Win12-4
14Green Bay PackersHDetroit Lions5.3-2.510.92720Win7-3.9
9Kansas City ChiefsRSan Diego Chargers-13.6-2.4-14.11331Loss-18-3.9
9Miami DolphinsRIndianapolis Colts-2.1-5.80.72023Loss-3-3.7
2Jacksonville JaguarsHHouston Texans-13.26.1-16.3727Loss-20-3.7
5Seattle SeahawksRCarolina Panthers10.90.57.51612Win4-3.5
1Carolina PanthersRTampa Bay Buccaneers0.50.2-2.71016Loss-6-3.3
9Cincinnati BengalsHDenver Broncos1.79.4-4.72331Loss-8-3.3
7Seattle SeahawksRSan Francisco 49ers10.911.7-3.7613Loss-7-3.3
11Pittsburgh SteelersHBaltimore Ravens-0.72.10.21013Loss-3-3.2
10Detroit LionsRMinnesota Vikings-2.51.3-6.82434Loss-10-3.2
12New Orleans SaintsHSan Francisco 49ers1.811.7-6.82131Loss-10-3.2
10New York JetsRSeattle Seahawks-3.810.9-17.8728Loss-21-3.2
9Atlanta FalconsHDallas Cowboys70.99.11913Win6-3.1
5Denver BroncosRNew England Patriots9.413.3-6.92131Loss-10-3.1
15Houston TexansHIndianapolis Colts6.1-5.814.92917Win12-2.9
4Baltimore RavensHCleveland Browns2.1-4.79.82316Win7-2.8
14San Francisco 49ersHMiami Dolphins11.7-2.116.82713Win14-2.8
12Buffalo BillsRIndianapolis Colts-6.9-5.8-4.21320Loss-7-2.8
12Philadelphia EaglesHCarolina Panthers-7.70.5-5.22230Loss-8-2.8
12Atlanta FalconsRTampa Bay Buccaneers70.23.82423Win1-2.8
9Seattle SeahawksHMinnesota Vikings10.91.312.73020Win10-2.7
12Houston TexansRDetroit Lions6.1-2.55.63431Win3-2.6
9Arizona CardinalsRGreen Bay Packers-3.15.3-11.41731Loss-14-2.6
2Cincinnati BengalsHCleveland Browns1.7-4.79.43427Win7-2.4
2New York GiantsHTampa Bay Buccaneers6.60.29.44134Win7-2.4
7New York GiantsHWashington Redskins6.63.26.42723Win4-2.4
9Philadelphia EaglesRNew Orleans Saints-7.71.8-12.61328Loss-15-2.4
1St. Louis RamsRDetroit Lions-1.3-2.5-1.72327Loss-4-2.3
8Dallas CowboysHNew York Giants0.96.6-2.72429Loss-5-2.3
3Tampa Bay BuccaneersRDallas Cowboys0.20.9-3.71016Loss-6-2.3
6Baltimore RavensHDallas Cowboys2.10.94.23129Win2-2.2
13Tennessee TitansHHouston Texans-8.76.1-11.81024Loss-14-2.2
6San Diego ChargersHDenver Broncos-2.49.4-8.82435Loss-11-2.2
1Tennessee TitansHNew England Patriots-8.713.3-18.91334Loss-21-2.1
7Cleveland BrownsRIndianapolis Colts-4.7-5.8-21317Loss-4-2
4Tampa Bay BuccaneersHWashington Redskins0.23.202224Loss-2-2
14Indianapolis ColtsHTennessee Titans-5.8-8.75.92723Win4-1.9
13Minnesota VikingsRGreen Bay Packers1.35.3-7.11423Loss-9-1.9
13New Orleans SaintsRAtlanta Falcons1.87-8.21323Loss-10-1.8
1Oakland RaidersHSan Diego Chargers-11.7-2.4-6.31422Loss-8-1.7
1Atlanta FalconsRKansas City Chiefs7-13.617.64024Win16-1.6
15Dallas CowboysHPittsburgh Steelers0.9-0.74.62724Win3-1.6
7Oakland RaidersHJacksonville Jaguars-11.7-13.24.52623Win3-1.5
12San Diego ChargersHBaltimore Ravens-2.42.1-1.51316Loss-3-1.5
13New York GiantsRWashington Redskins6.63.20.41617Loss-1-1.4
13New York JetsHArizona Cardinals-3.8-3.12.376Win1-1.3
8Philadelphia EaglesHAtlanta Falcons-7.77-11.81730Loss-13-1.2
1Denver BroncosHPittsburgh Steelers9.4-0.713.13119Win12-1.1
9Oakland RaidersHTampa Bay Buccaneers-11.70.2-8.93242Loss-10-1.1
14Washington RedskinsHBaltimore Ravens3.22.14.13128Win3-1.1
4Miami DolphinsRArizona Cardinals-2.1-3.1-22124Loss-3-1
5Houston TexansRNew York Jets6.1-3.86.92317Win6-0.9
11Green Bay PackersRDetroit Lions5.3-2.54.92420Win4-0.9
13Cleveland BrownsROakland Raiders-4.7-11.73.92017Win3-0.9
6Philadelphia EaglesHDetroit Lions-7.7-2.5-2.22326Loss-3-0.8
6St. Louis RamsRMiami Dolphins-1.3-2.1-2.21417Loss-3-0.8
14Jacksonville JaguarsHNew York Jets-13.2-3.8-6.41017Loss-7-0.6
7Minnesota VikingsHArizona Cardinals1.3-3.17.42114Win7-0.4
14Buffalo BillsHSt. Louis Rams-6.9-1.3-2.61215Loss-3-0.4
5New York GiantsHCleveland Browns6.6-4.714.34127Win14-0.3
8San Diego ChargersRCleveland Browns-2.4-4.7-0.767Loss-1-0.3
6New England PatriotsRSeattle Seahawks13.310.9-0.72324Loss-1-0.3
5New Orleans SaintsHSan Diego Chargers1.8-2.47.33124Win7-0.3
5San Diego ChargersRNew Orleans Saints-2.41.8-7.32431Loss-70.3
8Cleveland BrownsHSan Diego Chargers-4.7-2.40.776Win10.3
6Seattle SeahawksHNew England Patriots10.913.30.72423Win10.3
5Cleveland BrownsRNew York Giants-4.76.6-14.32741Loss-140.3
14St. Louis RamsRBuffalo Bills-1.3-6.92.61512Win30.4
7Arizona CardinalsRMinnesota Vikings-3.11.3-7.41421Loss-70.4
14New York JetsRJacksonville Jaguars-3.8-13.26.41710Win70.6
6Detroit LionsRPhiladelphia Eagles-2.5-7.72.22623Win30.8
6Miami DolphinsHSt. Louis Rams-2.1-1.32.21714Win30.8
13Oakland RaidersHCleveland Browns-11.7-4.7-3.91720Loss-30.9
11Detroit LionsHGreen Bay Packers-2.55.3-4.92024Loss-40.9
5New York JetsHHouston Texans-3.86.1-6.91723Loss-60.9
4Arizona CardinalsHMiami Dolphins-3.1-2.122421Win31
9Tampa Bay BuccaneersROakland Raiders0.2-11.78.94232Win101.1
14Baltimore RavensRWashington Redskins2.13.2-4.12831Loss-31.1
1Pittsburgh SteelersRDenver Broncos-0.79.4-13.11931Loss-121.1
8Atlanta FalconsRPhiladelphia Eagles7-7.711.83017Win131.2
13Arizona CardinalsRNew York Jets-3.1-3.8-2.367Loss-11.3
13Washington RedskinsHNew York Giants3.26.6-0.41716Win11.4
7Jacksonville JaguarsROakland Raiders-13.2-11.7-4.52326Loss-31.5
12Baltimore RavensRSan Diego Chargers2.1-2.41.51613Win31.5
15Pittsburgh SteelersRDallas Cowboys-0.70.9-4.62427Loss-31.6
1Kansas City ChiefsHAtlanta Falcons-13.67-17.62440Loss-161.6
1San Diego ChargersROakland Raiders-2.4-11.76.32214Win81.7
13Atlanta FalconsHNew Orleans Saints71.88.22313Win101.8
14Tennessee TitansRIndianapolis Colts-8.7-5.8-5.92327Loss-41.9
13Green Bay PackersHMinnesota Vikings5.31.37.12314Win91.9
7Indianapolis ColtsHCleveland Browns-5.8-4.721713Win42
4Washington RedskinsRTampa Bay Buccaneers3.20.202422Win22
1New England PatriotsRTennessee Titans13.3-8.718.93413Win212.1
13Houston TexansRTennessee Titans6.1-8.711.82410Win142.2
6Denver BroncosRSan Diego Chargers9.4-2.48.83524Win112.2
6Dallas CowboysRBaltimore Ravens0.92.1-4.22931Loss-22.2
1Detroit LionsHSt. Louis Rams-2.5-1.31.72723Win42.3
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6New York GiantsRSan Francisco 49ers6.611.7-8.1263Win2331.1
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{ 6 comments }
  • Richie December 19, 2012, 3:51 pm

    I guess it’s a residue of the circular reasoning with SRS, but if you sum up the DIFF for each team, they all net out to within 0.2 of zero.

    But then I also summed up the absolute value of each teams’ DIFF to see which teams have had the most and least “surprising” seasons so far.

    The most surprising is the Giants, with an average game DIFF of 14.3. The 49ers are 2nd at 12.9 and the Cardinals are 3rd at 12.4.

    The least surprising team is the Browns at 6.2, then Dallas at 6.4.

    Reply
    • George December 19, 2012, 6:35 pm

      “I guess it’s a residue of the circular reasoning with SRS, but if you sum up the DIFF for each team, they all net out to within 0.2 of zero.”

      Something like this – I don’t understand the maths behind it but that’s the way it works. The interesting one is if you take the standard deviation of this (the DIFF) you’ll usually find after about 6 or 7 weeks of the NFL season it’s somewhere around 12 or 13. This backs up the paper by Hal Stern from 1991 “on the probability of winning a football game”. Neil had an epic post/comment on this a while ago where he calculated the standard deviation over about 20 years worth of games and proved on average it is slightly lower than the recognised value from the Stern paper of about 13.86 (which makes a small percentage difference in outcomes of predictions).

      Reply
  • Neil December 19, 2012, 4:22 pm

    I like how Seahawks over Patriots, which was considered a somewhat major upset at the time, is now tied for the least-surprising game of the season.

    Reply
    • George December 19, 2012, 6:21 pm

      Interesting one and a good post, as I think it comes down to that whole backsight and foresight projection. I just adjusted my spreadsheet back to week 5 (the furthest back SRS figures on here are through the Sunday games of week 6) to remember how well Seattle were ranked at the time and I think it comes down to the fact that we weren’t believing what the figures told us essentially (in the same way that I shouldn’t have believed what the figures told me about Arizona in week 5). I think we all felt Seattle were going to get found out. The SRS figures on here through the week 6 games actually only had a two point difference between the Pats and the Seahawks and 9 weeks on from that, those figure looks valid (difference is only 0.4 different).

      The question is I think is; is it more valid to look back on the figures now as a backsight projection of your current figure from week 15 onto the team at the time (when arguably we all have a lot more faith in all of the numbers for all of the teams through 15 weeks) or to take the figure for the team from before the game (when arguably there was more doubt about some of the figures – e.g. Arizona or Miami)? The best example I think is the Miami, Tennessee game which still provides the biggest surprise but if you take the figures from before the game (which again I shouldn’t have believed….) the surprise was even bigger (when the figures had Miami as a substantially better team).

      Reply

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