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When Miami was blown out by Tennessee this weekend, I was shocked. So I cooked up a quick little way to measure how shocked I should have been. First, here are the SRS standings for the NFL through 10 weeks:

RkTeamGMOVSOSSRS
1Houston Texans911.6-0.311.3
2Chicago Bears911.8-0.910.9
3Denver Broncos99.41.310.7
4New England Patriots911.2-0.910.4
5San Francisco 49ers99.20.49.7
6Green Bay Packers95.41.77.1
7Atlanta Falcons98.4-2.36.1
8Seattle Seahawks103.72.15.8
9New York Giants105.105.1
10Baltimore Ravens96.1-2.33.8
11Tampa Bay Buccaneers95.3-2.23.1
12Dallas Cowboys9-0.83.62.8
13Pittsburgh Steelers93.7-3.30.4
14Detroit Lions90.3-0.30.1
15Minnesota Vikings101.1-10.1
16New Orleans Saints9-1.10.5-0.6
17San Diego Chargers92.3-3.4-1.1
18Washington Redskins9-2.10.9-1.2
19Carolina Panthers9-6.24.8-1.5
20St. Louis Rams9-5.84.1-1.7
21Arizona Cardinals9-3.61.6-2
22Cincinnati Bengals9-1.6-1.2-2.8
23Miami Dolphins9-1.1-3.1-4.2
24New York Jets9-6.21.9-4.3
25Indianapolis Colts9-2-3.4-5.4
26Buffalo Bills9-7.21-6.2
27Cleveland Browns9-5-1.3-6.3
28Philadelphia Eagles9-7.61-6.5
29Tennessee Titans10-9.21.6-7.6
30Oakland Raiders9-10-0.7-10.7
31Kansas City Chiefs9-11.9-0.7-12.6
32Jacksonville Jaguars9-13.60.6-13

Now the SRS weighs each game equally. This means that we can come up with a projected game score for each week, and see how close the actual result came to meeting our projection. For this iteration of the SRS, I am not using any caps or floors, and am giving the home team three points.

Miami has an SRS rating of -4.2, while the Titans are down at -7.6. Of course, Miami’s SRS score is down in large part because of the loss to Tennessee, but that won’t matter here, since each team would be equally affected by an outlier. At home against Tennessee, we would expect Miami to win by 6.4 points; they lost by 34 points. Therefore, the Dolphins underachieved by 40.4 points. As it turns out, that was the most unexpectedly bad performance of the season. Because of the closed nature of the system, Tennessee overachieved expectations by 40.4 points, which was also the most unexpectedly good performance this year.

The table below lists each game of the year, from “most unexpectedly good” to “most unexpectedly bad.” Here’s what each column is:

MOV = points differential, with 3 points given to the home team
SOS = SRS rating of the opponent
SRS = Sum of the MOV and SOS cells; the single game SRS score
TMSRS = The team’s SRS score for the season
EXP SRS = The expected SRS for the game, calculated by taking the TMSRS and subtracting the SOS (and giving 3 points to the home team)
DIFF = The difference between the EXP SRS and the points differential (not the MOV, so as to not double count home field)

DateTmH/ROppPFPAMOVSOSSRSTM SRSEXP SRSDIFF
11-11-2012Tennessee Titans@Miami Dolphins37337-4.232.8-7.6-6.440.4
10-14-2012New York Giants@San Francisco 49ers263269.735.75.1-7.530.5
10-28-2012New England Patriots@St. Louis Rams45741-1.739.310.49.128.9
09-20-2012New York Giants@Carolina Panthers36732-1.530.55.13.625.4
10-14-2012Green Bay Packers@Houston Texans42242111.332.37.1-7.225.2
10-28-2012Miami Dolphins@New York Jets30924-4.319.7-4.2-2.923.9
09-30-2012San Francisco 49ers@New York Jets34037-4.332.79.710.923.1
10-07-2012San Francisco 49ersBuffalo Bills45339-6.232.89.718.923.1
11-11-2012Cincinnati BengalsNew York Giants3113155.120.1-2.8-4.922.9
10-14-2012New York JetsIndianapolis Colts35923-5.417.6-4.34.121.9
09-10-2012Baltimore RavensCincinnati Bengals441328-2.825.23.89.621.4
09-23-2012Atlanta Falcons@San Diego Chargers27327-1.125.96.14.219.8
10-21-2012Houston TexansBaltimore Ravens4313273.830.811.310.519.5
10-25-2012Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Minnesota Vikings3617220.122.13.10.118.9
09-16-2012San Diego ChargersTennessee Titans381025-7.617.4-1.19.518.5
09-23-2012Kansas City Chiefs@New Orleans Saints27246-0.65.4-12.6-1518
09-23-2012Minnesota VikingsSan Francisco 49ers241389.717.70.1-6.617.6
11-11-2012Baltimore RavensOakland Raiders552032-10.721.33.817.517.5
09-16-2012Arizona Cardinals@New England Patriots2018510.415.4-2-15.317.3
10-07-2012Chicago Bears@Jacksonville Jaguars41341-132810.920.917.1
10-14-2012Oakland Raiders@Atlanta Falcons202306.16.1-10.7-19.916.9
09-23-2012Jacksonville Jaguars@Indianapolis Colts22178-5.42.6-13-10.615.6
11-04-2012Chicago Bears@Tennessee Titans512034-7.626.410.915.515.5
09-09-2012New York JetsBuffalo Bills482817-6.210.8-4.3515
10-21-2012New York Jets@New England Patriots2629010.410.4-4.3-17.614.6
11-11-2012St. Louis Rams@San Francisco 49ers242439.712.7-1.7-14.414.4
10-28-2012Carolina Panthers@Chicago Bears2223210.912.9-1.5-15.414.4
10-28-2012Jacksonville Jaguars@Green Bay Packers1524-67.11.1-13-23.114.1
09-16-2012Seattle SeahawksDallas Cowboys277172.819.85.8614
09-13-2012Green Bay PackersChicago Bears23101010.920.97.1-0.813.8
10-21-2012New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay Buccaneers3528103.113.1-0.6-6.813.8
11-11-2012Buffalo Bills@New England Patriots3137-310.47.4-6.2-19.613.6
09-23-2012Arizona CardinalsPhiladelphia Eagles27618-6.511.5-27.613.4
09-09-2012Jacksonville Jaguars@Minnesota Vikings232600.10.1-13-1613
09-23-2012Buffalo Bills@Cleveland Browns241413-6.36.7-6.2-2.912.9
11-12-2012Kansas City Chiefs@Pittsburgh Steelers131600.40.4-12.6-15.912.9
11-11-2012Denver Broncos@Carolina Panthers361425-1.523.510.79.212.8
10-07-2012Indianapolis ColtsGreen Bay Packers302707.17.1-5.4-9.512.5
10-07-2012Minnesota VikingsTennessee Titans30720-7.612.40.110.612.4
10-29-2012San Francisco 49ers@Arizona Cardinals24324-2229.78.612.4
11-08-2012Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars271020-137-5.44.612.4
09-05-2012Dallas Cowboys@New York Giants2417105.115.12.8-5.412.4
09-16-2012Miami DolphinsOakland Raiders351319-10.78.3-4.29.612.4
11-04-2012Pittsburgh Steelers@New York Giants242075.112.10.4-7.811.8
09-23-2012Cincinnati Bengals@Washington Redskins383110-1.28.8-2.8-4.611.6
09-09-2012Washington Redskins@New Orleans Saints403211-0.610.4-1.2-3.611.6
11-04-2012Carolina Panthers@Washington Redskins211311-1.29.8-1.5-3.311.3
10-28-2012Oakland Raiders@Kansas City Chiefs261613-12.60.4-10.7-1.211.2
09-23-2012Oakland RaidersPittsburgh Steelers343100.40.4-10.7-8.111.1
10-01-2012Chicago Bears@Dallas Cowboys3418192.821.810.95.110.9
10-04-2012St. Louis RamsArizona Cardinals17311-29-1.73.210.8
09-30-2012Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants1917-15.14.1-6.5-8.710.7
10-14-2012Cleveland BrownsCincinnati Bengals34247-2.84.2-6.3-0.610.6
09-30-2012St. Louis RamsSeattle Seahawks191335.88.8-1.7-4.510.5
10-28-2012Pittsburgh SteelersWashington Redskins271212-1.210.80.44.510.5
10-07-2012Kansas City ChiefsBaltimore Ravens69-63.8-2.2-12.6-13.410.4
09-30-2012New England Patriots@Buffalo Bills522827-6.220.810.413.610.4
10-14-2012Washington RedskinsMinnesota Vikings382690.19.1-1.21.710.3
10-14-2012Buffalo Bills@Arizona Cardinals19166-24-6.2-7.310.3
09-30-2012Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions2013100.110.10.1-310
09-30-2012Cincinnati Bengals@Jacksonville Jaguars271020-137-2.87.29.8
09-30-2012New Orleans Saints@Green Bay Packers272827.19.1-0.6-10.79.7
11-11-2012Houston Texans@Chicago Bears1361010.920.911.3-2.69.6
09-16-2012Pittsburgh SteelersNew York Jets271014-4.39.70.47.69.4
10-14-2012Tampa Bay BuccaneersKansas City Chiefs381025-12.612.43.118.79.3
09-30-2012Washington Redskins@Tampa Bay Buccaneers242253.18.1-1.2-7.39.3
09-09-2012Arizona CardinalsSeattle Seahawks201615.86.8-2-4.78.7
11-11-2012Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia Eagles382318-6.511.52.86.38.7
09-30-2012Carolina Panthers@Atlanta Falcons283016.17.1-1.5-10.68.6
09-16-2012Buffalo BillsKansas City Chiefs351715-12.62.4-6.29.48.6
11-04-2012Buffalo Bills@Houston Texans921-911.32.3-6.2-20.58.5
09-23-2012Houston Texans@Denver Broncos3125910.719.711.3-2.58.5
09-30-2012San Diego Chargers@Kansas City Chiefs372020-12.67.4-1.18.58.5
10-07-2012Miami Dolphins@Cincinnati Bengals17137-2.84.2-4.2-4.48.4
09-09-2012San Francisco 49ers@Green Bay Packers3022117.118.19.7-0.48.4
09-16-2012Philadelphia EaglesBaltimore Ravens2423-23.81.8-6.5-7.38.3
11-11-2012Seattle SeahawksNew York Jets28718-4.313.75.8138
10-11-2012Tennessee TitansPittsburgh Steelers262300.40.4-7.6-4.97.9
10-07-2012Philadelphia Eagles@Pittsburgh Steelers141610.41.4-6.5-9.97.9
10-22-2012Detroit Lions@Chicago Bears713-310.97.90.1-13.87.8
11-11-2012New Orleans SaintsAtlanta Falcons312716.17.1-0.6-3.87.8
09-23-2012Tennessee TitansDetroit Lions444100.10.1-7.6-4.77.7
09-17-2012Atlanta FalconsDenver Broncos2721310.713.76.1-1.67.6
10-07-2012New England PatriotsDenver Broncos3121710.717.710.42.67.4
11-11-2012Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions342470.17.10.137
10-21-2012Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati Bengals241710-2.87.20.40.16.9
11-04-2012Detroit Lions@Jacksonville Jaguars311420-1370.110.16.9
10-28-2012Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans19139-7.61.4-5.4-0.86.8
10-28-2012Detroit LionsSeattle Seahawks282415.86.80.1-2.76.7
10-08-2012New York JetsHouston Texans1723-911.32.3-4.3-12.56.5
09-30-2012Denver BroncosOakland Raiders37628-10.717.310.724.56.5
09-23-2012New York Jets@Miami Dolphins23206-4.21.8-4.3-3.16.1
09-09-2012New England Patriots@Tennessee Titans341324-7.616.410.414.96.1
09-27-2012Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens1623-43.8-0.2-6.3-13.16.1
11-05-2012New Orleans SaintsPhiladelphia Eagles281312-6.55.5-0.68.96.1
09-16-2012Carolina PanthersNew Orleans Saints35275-0.64.4-1.52.25.8
10-28-2012New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys292482.810.85.1-0.65.6
10-28-2012Denver BroncosNew Orleans Saints341417-0.616.410.714.45.6
09-16-2012Indianapolis ColtsMinnesota Vikings232000.10.1-5.4-2.45.4
10-21-2012Washington Redskins@New York Giants2327-15.14.1-1.2-9.35.3
10-21-2012Tennessee Titans@Buffalo Bills35344-6.2-2.2-7.6-4.35.3
09-16-2012Detroit Lions@San Francisco 49ers1927-59.74.70.1-12.64.6
09-23-2012Baltimore RavensNew England Patriots3130-210.48.43.8-3.64.6
09-09-2012Philadelphia Eagles@Cleveland Browns17164-6.3-2.3-6.5-3.24.2
10-21-2012Green Bay Packers@St. Louis Rams302013-1.711.37.15.84.2
10-21-2012Dallas Cowboys@Carolina Panthers19148-1.56.52.81.33.7
10-07-2012New Orleans SaintsSan Diego Chargers31244-1.12.9-0.63.43.6
11-01-2012San Diego ChargersKansas City Chiefs311315-12.62.4-1.114.53.5
09-23-2012Dallas CowboysTampa Bay Buccaneers161033.16.12.82.63.4
10-28-2012Atlanta Falcons@Philadelphia Eagles301716-6.59.56.19.73.3
10-28-2012Cleveland BrownsSan Diego Chargers76-2-1.1-3.1-6.3-2.33.3
11-04-2012Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland Browns251513-6.36.73.87.12.9
11-11-2012Tampa Bay BuccaneersSan Diego Chargers34247-1.15.93.17.22.8
10-07-2012Atlanta Falcons@Washington Redskins241710-1.28.86.14.32.7
10-14-2012Seattle SeahawksNew England Patriots2423-210.48.45.8-1.62.6
11-04-2012Cincinnati BengalsDenver Broncos2331-1110.7-0.3-2.8-10.52.5
10-14-2012Miami DolphinsSt. Louis Rams17140-1.7-1.7-4.20.62.4
10-21-2012Jacksonville Jaguars@Oakland Raiders23260-10.7-10.7-13-5.22.2
10-15-2012Denver Broncos@San Diego Chargers352414-1.112.910.78.82.2
09-30-2012Houston TexansTennessee Titans381421-7.613.411.321.82.2
09-30-2012Miami Dolphins@Arizona Cardinals21240-2-2-4.2-5.22.2
09-16-2012New York GiantsTampa Bay Buccaneers413443.17.15.152
10-21-2012Minnesota VikingsArizona Cardinals21144-220.152
10-14-2012Dallas Cowboys@Baltimore Ravens293113.84.82.8-42
11-04-2012Green Bay PackersArizona Cardinals311711-297.112.11.9
09-09-2012Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers1016-33.10.1-1.5-7.61.6
09-09-2012Houston TexansMiami Dolphins301017-4.212.811.318.41.6
09-23-2012Chicago BearsSt. Louis Rams23614-1.712.310.915.61.4
09-09-2012Pittsburgh Steelers@Denver Broncos1931-910.71.70.4-13.41.4
09-10-2012San Diego Chargers@Oakland Raiders221411-10.70.3-1.16.71.3
11-04-2012Seattle SeahawksMinnesota Vikings302070.17.15.88.71.3
09-16-2012Jacksonville JaguarsHouston Texans727-2311.3-11.7-13-21.21.2
11-04-2012Indianapolis ColtsMiami Dolphins23200-4.2-4.2-5.41.81.2
11-04-2012Oakland RaidersTampa Bay Buccaneers3242-133.1-9.9-10.7-10.90.9
09-09-2012St. Louis Rams@Detroit Lions2327-10.1-0.9-1.7-4.80.8
09-09-2012Chicago BearsIndianapolis Colts412117-5.411.610.919.30.7
10-14-2012Philadelphia EaglesDetroit Lions2326-60.1-5.9-6.5-3.60.6
10-07-2012Cleveland Browns@New York Giants2741-115.1-5.9-6.3-14.50.5
09-16-2012St. Louis RamsWashington Redskins31280-1.2-1.2-1.72.50.5
11-04-2012Dallas Cowboys@Atlanta Falcons1319-36.13.12.8-6.40.4
09-16-2012Cincinnati BengalsCleveland Browns34274-6.3-2.3-2.86.60.4
09-09-2012Atlanta Falcons@Kansas City Chiefs402419-12.66.46.115.70.3
09-24-2012Seattle SeahawksGreen Bay Packers1412-17.16.15.81.70.3
10-07-2012Carolina PanthersSeattle Seahawks1216-75.8-1.2-1.5-4.20.2
10-18-2012San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks13645.89.89.76.90.1
10-21-2012Cleveland Browns@Indianapolis Colts1317-1-5.4-6.4-6.3-40
10-21-2012Indianapolis ColtsCleveland Browns17131-6.3-5.3-5.440
11-11-2012Miami DolphinsTennessee Titans337-37-7.6-44.6-4.26.4-40.4
10-14-2012San Francisco 49ersNew York Giants326-265.1-20.99.77.5-30.5
10-28-2012St. Louis RamsNew England Patriots745-4110.4-30.6-1.7-9.1-28.9
09-20-2012Carolina PanthersNew York Giants736-325.1-26.9-1.5-3.6-25.4
10-14-2012Houston TexansGreen Bay Packers2442-217.1-13.911.37.2-25.2
10-28-2012New York JetsMiami Dolphins930-24-4.2-28.2-4.32.9-23.9
10-07-2012Buffalo Bills@San Francisco 49ers345-399.7-29.3-6.2-18.9-23.1
09-30-2012New York JetsSan Francisco 49ers034-379.7-27.3-4.3-10.9-23.1
11-11-2012New York Giants@Cincinnati Bengals1331-15-2.8-17.85.14.9-22.9
10-14-2012Indianapolis Colts@New York Jets935-23-4.3-27.3-5.4-4.1-21.9
09-10-2012Cincinnati Bengals@Baltimore Ravens1344-283.8-24.2-2.8-9.6-21.4
09-23-2012San Diego ChargersAtlanta Falcons327-276.1-20.9-1.1-4.2-19.8
10-21-2012Baltimore Ravens@Houston Texans1343-2711.3-15.73.8-10.5-19.5
10-25-2012Minnesota VikingsTampa Bay Buccaneers1736-223.1-18.90.1-0.1-18.9
09-16-2012Tennessee Titans@San Diego Chargers1038-25-1.1-26.1-7.6-9.5-18.5
09-23-2012New Orleans SaintsKansas City Chiefs2427-6-12.6-18.6-0.615-18
09-23-2012San Francisco 49ers@Minnesota Vikings1324-80.1-7.99.76.6-17.6
11-11-2012Oakland Raiders@Baltimore Ravens2055-323.8-28.2-10.7-17.5-17.5
09-16-2012New England PatriotsArizona Cardinals1820-5-2-710.415.3-17.3
10-07-2012Jacksonville JaguarsChicago Bears341-4110.9-30.1-13-20.9-17.1
10-14-2012Atlanta FalconsOakland Raiders23200-10.7-10.76.119.9-16.9
09-23-2012Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars1722-8-13-21-5.410.6-15.6
11-04-2012Tennessee TitansChicago Bears2051-3410.9-23.1-7.6-15.5-15.5
09-09-2012Buffalo Bills@New York Jets2848-17-4.3-21.3-6.2-5-15
10-21-2012New England PatriotsNew York Jets29260-4.3-4.310.417.6-14.6
10-28-2012Chicago BearsCarolina Panthers2322-2-1.5-3.510.915.4-14.4
11-11-2012San Francisco 49ersSt. Louis Rams2424-3-1.7-4.79.714.4-14.4
10-28-2012Green Bay PackersJacksonville Jaguars24156-13-77.123.1-14.1
09-16-2012Dallas Cowboys@Seattle Seahawks727-175.8-11.22.8-6-14
10-21-2012Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans Saints2835-10-0.6-10.63.16.8-13.8
09-13-2012Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers1023-107.1-2.910.90.8-13.8
11-11-2012New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills37313-6.2-3.210.419.6-13.6
09-23-2012Philadelphia Eagles@Arizona Cardinals627-18-2-20-6.5-7.6-13.4
09-09-2012Minnesota VikingsJacksonville Jaguars26230-13-130.116-13
11-12-2012Pittsburgh SteelersKansas City Chiefs16130-12.6-12.60.415.9-12.9
09-23-2012Cleveland BrownsBuffalo Bills1424-13-6.2-19.2-6.32.9-12.9
11-11-2012Carolina PanthersDenver Broncos1436-2510.7-14.3-1.5-9.2-12.8
10-07-2012Green Bay Packers@Indianapolis Colts27300-5.4-5.47.19.5-12.5
09-16-2012Oakland Raiders@Miami Dolphins1335-19-4.2-23.2-10.7-9.6-12.4
10-07-2012Tennessee Titans@Minnesota Vikings730-200.1-19.9-7.6-10.6-12.4
10-29-2012Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers324-249.7-14.3-2-8.6-12.4
11-08-2012Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis Colts1027-20-5.4-25.4-13-4.6-12.4
09-05-2012New York GiantsDallas Cowboys1724-102.8-7.25.15.4-12.4
11-04-2012New York GiantsPittsburgh Steelers2024-70.4-6.65.17.8-11.8
09-09-2012New Orleans SaintsWashington Redskins3240-11-1.2-12.2-0.63.6-11.6
09-23-2012Washington RedskinsCincinnati Bengals3138-10-2.8-12.8-1.24.6-11.6
11-04-2012Washington RedskinsCarolina Panthers1321-11-1.5-12.5-1.23.3-11.3
10-28-2012Kansas City ChiefsOakland Raiders1626-13-10.7-23.7-12.61.2-11.2
09-23-2012Pittsburgh Steelers@Oakland Raiders31340-10.7-10.70.48.1-11.1
10-01-2012Dallas CowboysChicago Bears1834-1910.9-8.12.8-5.1-10.9
10-04-2012Arizona Cardinals@St. Louis Rams317-11-1.7-12.7-2-3.2-10.8
09-30-2012New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles17191-6.5-5.55.18.7-10.7
10-14-2012Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland Browns2434-7-6.3-13.3-2.80.6-10.6
09-30-2012Seattle Seahawks@St. Louis Rams1319-3-1.7-4.75.84.5-10.5
10-28-2012Washington Redskins@Pittsburgh Steelers1227-120.4-11.6-1.2-4.5-10.5
09-30-2012Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots2852-2710.4-16.6-6.2-13.6-10.4
10-07-2012Baltimore Ravens@Kansas City Chiefs966-12.6-6.63.813.4-10.4
10-14-2012Minnesota Vikings@Washington Redskins2638-9-1.2-10.20.1-1.7-10.3
10-14-2012Arizona CardinalsBuffalo Bills1619-6-6.2-12.2-27.3-10.3
09-30-2012Detroit LionsMinnesota Vikings1320-100.1-9.90.13-10
09-30-2012Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals1027-20-2.8-22.8-13-7.2-9.8
09-30-2012Green Bay PackersNew Orleans Saints2827-2-0.6-2.67.110.7-9.7
11-11-2012Chicago BearsHouston Texans613-1011.31.310.92.6-9.6
09-16-2012New York Jets@Pittsburgh Steelers1027-140.4-13.6-4.3-7.6-9.4
10-14-2012Kansas City Chiefs@Tampa Bay Buccaneers1038-253.1-21.9-12.6-18.7-9.3
09-30-2012Tampa Bay BuccaneersWashington Redskins2224-5-1.2-6.23.17.3-9.3
09-09-2012Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals1620-1-2-35.84.7-8.7
11-11-2012Philadelphia EaglesDallas Cowboys2338-182.8-15.2-6.5-6.3-8.7
09-30-2012Atlanta FalconsCarolina Panthers3028-1-1.5-2.56.110.6-8.6
09-16-2012Kansas City Chiefs@Buffalo Bills1735-15-6.2-21.2-12.6-9.4-8.6
09-30-2012Kansas City ChiefsSan Diego Chargers2037-20-1.1-21.1-12.6-8.5-8.5
11-04-2012Houston TexansBuffalo Bills2199-6.22.811.320.5-8.5
09-23-2012Denver BroncosHouston Texans2531-911.32.310.72.5-8.5
09-09-2012Green Bay PackersSan Francisco 49ers2230-119.7-1.37.10.4-8.4
10-07-2012Cincinnati BengalsMiami Dolphins1317-7-4.2-11.2-2.84.4-8.4
09-16-2012Baltimore Ravens@Philadelphia Eagles23242-6.5-4.53.87.3-8.3
11-11-2012New York Jets@Seattle Seahawks728-185.8-12.2-4.3-13-8
10-11-2012Pittsburgh Steelers@Tennessee Titans23260-7.6-7.60.44.9-7.9
10-07-2012Pittsburgh SteelersPhiladelphia Eagles1614-1-6.5-7.50.49.9-7.9
11-11-2012Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans Saints2731-1-0.6-1.66.13.8-7.8
10-22-2012Chicago BearsDetroit Lions13730.13.110.913.8-7.8
09-23-2012Detroit Lions@Tennessee Titans41440-7.6-7.60.14.7-7.7
09-17-2012Denver Broncos@Atlanta Falcons2127-36.13.110.71.6-7.6
10-07-2012Denver Broncos@New England Patriots2131-710.43.410.7-2.6-7.4
11-11-2012Detroit Lions@Minnesota Vikings2434-70.1-6.90.1-3-7
11-04-2012Jacksonville JaguarsDetroit Lions1431-200.1-19.9-13-10.1-6.9
10-21-2012Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh Steelers1724-100.4-9.6-2.8-0.1-6.9
10-28-2012Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts1319-9-5.4-14.4-7.60.8-6.8
10-28-2012Seattle Seahawks@Detroit Lions2428-10.1-0.95.82.7-6.7
10-08-2012Houston Texans@New York Jets23179-4.34.711.312.5-6.5
09-30-2012Oakland Raiders@Denver Broncos637-2810.7-17.3-10.7-24.5-6.5
09-27-2012Baltimore RavensCleveland Browns23164-6.3-2.33.813.1-6.1
09-23-2012Miami DolphinsNew York Jets2023-6-4.3-10.3-4.23.1-6.1
11-05-2012Philadelphia Eagles@New Orleans Saints1328-12-0.6-12.6-6.5-8.9-6.1
09-09-2012Tennessee TitansNew England Patriots1334-2410.4-13.6-7.6-14.9-6.1
09-16-2012New Orleans Saints@Carolina Panthers2735-5-1.5-6.5-0.6-2.2-5.8
10-28-2012Dallas CowboysNew York Giants2429-85.1-2.92.80.6-5.6
10-28-2012New Orleans Saints@Denver Broncos1434-1710.7-6.3-0.6-14.4-5.6
09-16-2012Minnesota Vikings@Indianapolis Colts20230-5.4-5.40.12.4-5.4
10-21-2012New York GiantsWashington Redskins27231-1.2-0.25.19.3-5.3
10-21-2012Buffalo BillsTennessee Titans3435-4-7.6-11.6-6.24.3-5.3
09-16-2012San Francisco 49ersDetroit Lions271950.15.19.712.6-4.6
09-23-2012New England Patriots@Baltimore Ravens303123.85.810.43.6-4.6
10-21-2012St. Louis RamsGreen Bay Packers2030-137.1-5.9-1.7-5.8-4.2
09-09-2012Cleveland BrownsPhiladelphia Eagles1617-4-6.5-10.5-6.33.2-4.2
10-21-2012Carolina PanthersDallas Cowboys1419-82.8-5.2-1.5-1.3-3.7
10-07-2012San Diego Chargers@New Orleans Saints2431-4-0.6-4.6-1.1-3.4-3.6
11-01-2012Kansas City Chiefs@San Diego Chargers1331-15-1.1-16.1-12.6-14.5-3.5
09-23-2012Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Dallas Cowboys1016-32.8-0.23.1-2.6-3.4
10-28-2012San Diego Chargers@Cleveland Browns672-6.3-4.3-1.12.3-3.3
10-28-2012Philadelphia EaglesAtlanta Falcons1730-166.1-9.9-6.5-9.7-3.3
11-04-2012Cleveland BrownsBaltimore Ravens1525-133.8-9.2-6.3-7.1-2.9
11-11-2012San Diego Chargers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers2434-73.1-3.9-1.1-7.2-2.8
10-07-2012Washington RedskinsAtlanta Falcons1724-106.1-3.9-1.2-4.3-2.7
10-14-2012New England Patriots@Seattle Seahawks232425.87.810.41.6-2.6
11-04-2012Denver Broncos@Cincinnati Bengals312311-2.88.210.710.5-2.5
10-14-2012St. Louis Rams@Miami Dolphins14170-4.2-4.2-1.7-0.6-2.4
09-30-2012Tennessee Titans@Houston Texans1438-2111.3-9.7-7.6-21.8-2.2
09-30-2012Arizona CardinalsMiami Dolphins24210-4.2-4.2-25.2-2.2
10-15-2012San Diego ChargersDenver Broncos2435-1410.7-3.3-1.1-8.8-2.2
10-21-2012Oakland RaidersJacksonville Jaguars26230-13-13-10.75.2-2.2
10-21-2012Arizona Cardinals@Minnesota Vikings1421-40.1-3.9-2-5-2
10-14-2012Baltimore RavensDallas Cowboys3129-12.81.83.84-2
09-16-2012Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New York Giants3441-45.11.13.1-5-2
11-04-2012Arizona Cardinals@Green Bay Packers1731-117.1-3.9-2-12.1-1.9
09-09-2012Miami Dolphins@Houston Texans1030-1711.3-5.7-4.2-18.4-1.6
09-09-2012Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers16103-1.51.53.17.6-1.6
09-23-2012St. Louis Rams@Chicago Bears623-1410.9-3.1-1.7-15.6-1.4
09-09-2012Denver BroncosPittsburgh Steelers311990.49.410.713.4-1.4
11-04-2012Minnesota Vikings@Seattle Seahawks2030-75.8-1.20.1-8.7-1.3
09-10-2012Oakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers1422-11-1.1-12.1-10.7-6.7-1.3
11-04-2012Miami Dolphins@Indianapolis Colts20230-5.4-5.4-4.2-1.8-1.2
09-16-2012Houston Texans@Jacksonville Jaguars27723-131011.321.2-1.2
11-04-2012Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Oakland Raiders423213-10.72.33.110.9-0.9
09-09-2012Detroit LionsSt. Louis Rams27231-1.7-0.70.14.8-0.8
09-09-2012Indianapolis Colts@Chicago Bears2141-1710.9-6.1-5.4-19.3-0.7
10-14-2012Detroit Lions@Philadelphia Eagles26236-6.5-0.50.13.6-0.6
09-16-2012Washington Redskins@St. Louis Rams28310-1.7-1.7-1.2-2.5-0.5
10-07-2012New York GiantsCleveland Browns412711-6.34.75.114.5-0.5
09-16-2012Cleveland Browns@Cincinnati Bengals2734-4-2.8-6.8-6.3-6.6-0.4
11-04-2012Atlanta FalconsDallas Cowboys191332.85.86.16.4-0.4
09-24-2012Green Bay Packers@Seattle Seahawks121415.86.87.1-1.7-0.3
09-09-2012Kansas City ChiefsAtlanta Falcons2440-196.1-12.9-12.6-15.7-0.3
10-07-2012Seattle Seahawks@Carolina Panthers16127-1.55.55.84.2-0.2
10-18-2012Seattle Seahawks@San Francisco 49ers613-49.75.75.8-6.9-0.1

Of course, the Dolphins not only turned in the most unexpectedly bad game of the year, they also played simply the worst game of the year. They played like they were 45 points below average against the Titans.

[Edited to add: A few minutes after posting this, I realized that I shouldn’t count the London game as a home game for St. Louis. Oh well.]

{ 8 comments }
  • George November 15, 2012, 4:54 pm

    Really good post and I will hold my hand up to trusting the numbers enough to actually back Miami last weekend (along with New England and Pittsburgh – so it was a good weekend – hadn’t got involved for a couple of weeks so felt the need). When doing the least squares through week 10 (for week 11) the sharpest adjustment was for Miami (which dropped 11 places for straight up, no capping or weighting and 13 places for 95% weighted). For a system which is relatively insensitive to adjustments, for an adjustment that big it is quite an indication of just how bad in comparison to previous games Miami were last week, or perhaps how overvalued they were based on previous games (think of Arizona earlier in the season before people realised their O Line was an issue). With respect to the Miami game this evening whilst they may look like the slightly better team on ratings (least squares or SRS), factor in a weighting on previous games and they are predicted to need substantially more than +1.5 (or the 2.5 which it is now at locally).

    Reply
  • Chase Stuart November 15, 2012, 6:18 pm

    Thanks George. I think we may be the only ones, but I really enjoy posts like this.

    Reply
  • George November 15, 2012, 6:48 pm

    No worries – I just appreciate the fact that there are people out there that get this and write about it (i.e. trying to put a number on something like this with a logical method as to how they get that number). The only thing I would suggest – and I may be wrong in this – is to look at the foresight projection (e.g. Neil’s rating from before the game in his post from last week) rather than the hindsight projection (from after the game). I had Miami about 12 points better plus home advantage with unweighted least squares (which is about what Neil had with SRS) which makes Miami’s performance from last week that little bit more bad (unweighted least squares I had Tennessee as ranked 30th last week, this week I have them ranked 29th so I don’t have this as an under rating of the Titans – e.g. they didn’t jump up significantly for the win – possibly an over rating of Miami and a below projected performance). I don’t think they bounce back on a short week though, I think this sticks.

    Reply
    • Richie November 15, 2012, 7:26 pm

      I don’t think they bounce back on a short week though, I think this sticks.

      I don’t know…
      I didn’t get to see much of the Mia-Ten game, since it barely made it onto the Red Zone channel because most of the scores were 20+ yards.

      But it seems that turnovers were the main factor in this game, particularly it being a blowout. Miami was -4 turnover margin.

      So far this year, the Dolphins have a direct correlation between turnover margin and wins. http://pfref.com/tiny/9l1Wv If they have a positive turnover margin, they win. If they have an even or negative margin, they lose.

      Is there really any reason to expect them to have so many turnovers in the future? Tannehill had gone 5 straight without a pick.

      I’m not saying the Dolphins will win out, but they should probably be able to win 2-4 more games this year.

      Reply
      • Richie November 16, 2012, 1:46 am

        Is there really any reason to expect them to have so many turnovers in the future?

        Yes.

        Reply
        • George November 16, 2012, 4:18 pm

          Miami was an interesting one. After reading that post from Neil the other week, I went and bought the Carl Meyer book and have managed to get an Excel worksheet set-up to run the Kenneth Massey 1997 thesis method (it’s a bit hard work but different). Uncapped and unweighted Massey, and uncapped and unweighted Least Squares would have both had Miami with about a 60% chance to cover. It was only when you added a weighting to your ratings that it became clear they would have only had about a 30% chance of covering (with last weeks game adding a heavy skew). Personally I think we need to find out just what the team is bringing before we buy it.

          Incidentally things my worksheets liked this (average of weighted and unweighted Least Squares and unweighted Massey) Houston -16 (79% chance), Cincinnati -3.5 (77.3% chance), New Orleans -4.5 (73.6% chance). One major thing to consider with this though is this approach went 0 and 3 last weekend.

          Reply
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