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Sunday morning, I noted that the Falcons had a 2.4% chance of going undefeated and that the team most likely give them their first loss was the Dallas Cowboys. After Atlanta’s victory on Sunday night, they halfway to perfection. This is the first time in franchise history the Falcons have started off 8-0, although star tight end Tony Gonzalez once played on a 9-0 team and Matt Ryan went 8-0 in 2007 at Boston College. After the victory over the Cowboys, what is the current probability that Atlanta goes 16-0?

First, we need to calculate SRS standings. Neil gave us his Weighted SRS Ratings earlier today, but the table below shows the vanilla SRS ratings:

Rk
Team
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
1San Francisco 49ers810.81.111.8
2Chicago Bears814.5-2.811.7
3New England Patriots812.3-1.510.7
4Houston Texans811.8-2.19.6
5Denver Broncos87.51.69.1
6New York Giants97.318.4
7Atlanta Falcons89.6-2.37.4
8Green Bay Packers95.41.67
9Seattle Seahawks92.13.25.3
10Tampa Bay Buccaneers85.1-1.83.3
11Dallas Cowboys8-3.15.72.6
12Pittsburgh Steelers84.1-2.12.1
13Miami Dolphins83.4-2.31
14Detroit Lions81.3-0.50.7
15Baltimore Ravens82.9-2.20.7
16Carolina Panthers8-3.94.50.6
17Washington Redskins9-2.11.2-0.9
18Minnesota Vikings90.4-1.3-0.9
19Arizona Cardinals9-3.62.1-1.5
20New Orleans Saints8-1.4-0.3-1.7
21San Diego Chargers83.5-5.3-1.8
22New York Jets8-4.82.6-2.1
23St. Louis Rams8-6.94.3-2.6
24Philadelphia Eagles8-6.31.1-5.2
25Cincinnati Bengals8-3.6-1.9-5.5
26Indianapolis Colts8-4.8-1.9-6.6
27Cleveland Browns9-5-2.6-7.6
28Oakland Raiders8-7.3-0.7-7.9
29Buffalo Bills8-7.8-0.8-8.5
30Jacksonville Jaguars8-12.81-11.7
31Tennessee Titans9-14.31.9-12.4
32Kansas City Chiefs8-13.4-1.3-14.7


The Falcons rank 7th according to the SRS and are 7.4 points better than average. Using Neil’s win probability method and the SRS, we can come up with a projected point spread and the resulting win probability for Atlanta in each of their remaining eight games:

Wk
Opp
Atl SRS
Opp SRS
ProjSpread
Win%
10@New Orleans Saints7.4-1.7-6.066.8%
11Arizona Cardinals7.4-1.5-11.880.3%
12@Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.43.1-1.353.6%
13New Orleans Saints7.4-1.7-12.080.7%
14@Carolina Panthers7.40.6-3.760.6%
15New York Giants7.48.4-2.055.7%
16@Detroit Lions7.40.7-3.660.3%
17Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.43.3-7.069.4%
Undefeated3.3%

So which team is now most likely to end the Falcons’ bid for a perfect season? Again, it’s the next team on their schedule:

Wk
Opp
Atl SRS
Opp SRS
Diff
Win%
First?
10@New Orleans Saints7.4-1.7666.8%33.2%
11Arizona Cardinals7.4-1.511.880.3%13.2%
12@Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.43.11.353.6%24.9%
13New Orleans Saints7.4-1.71280.7%5.5%
14@Carolina Panthers7.40.63.760.6%9.1%
15New York Giants7.48.4255.7%6.2%
16@Detroit Lions7.40.73.660.3%3.1%
17Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.43.3769.4%1.4%
Total96.7%

The Falcons have just a 3.3% chance of going undefeated, and there’s a 38.7% chance that the Saints are the team to give Atlanta their first loss. If Atlanta can make it past the Giants, at that point, Atlanta will be more likely than not to have a perfect season. If you like a different metric, Football Outsiders says the Falcons have just a 1.1% chance of a 16-0 season.

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