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Checkdowns: Weighted NFL SRS Ratings (through Monday 11/05/12)

by Neil Paine on November 6, 2012

in Checkdowns, Power Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery, Vegas

Here’s my weekly set of power ratings, according to a weighted version of the Simple Rating System:

Rk
Team
W
L
Talent
PWAG
Off
Def
SRS
wpa_loc
wpa_veg
wpa_1st
wpa_2nd
wpa_3rd
wpa_4ot
1Chicago Bears710.65867.7%6.0-6.012.00.0000.9220.802-0.3490.4581.167
2San Francisco 49ers620.60562.3%0.3-11.511.70.0001.2350.0880.1890.576-0.087
3New England Patriots530.55366.7%9.6-1.010.7-0.0671.4080.7120.3040.368-1.724
4Houston Texans710.65864.1%4.1-5.69.70.1351.6480.0740.7800.2540.110
5Denver Broncos530.55350.1%6.0-3.39.30.0000.213-0.398-0.6040.2081.581
6New York Giants630.57560.4%7.8-0.68.40.0670.5280.2520.450-0.2070.410
7Green Bay Packers630.57566.0%6.6-0.67.20.0671.4310.7560.011-0.463-0.302
8Atlanta Falcons800.71175.4%3.8-3.27.10.0000.6880.7350.4840.4181.675
9Seattle Seahawks540.52550.1%-1.2-6.14.9-0.067-0.2920.770-0.4240.1510.362
10Tampa Bay Buccaneers440.50048.4%4.30.63.70.000-0.5540.831-0.2201.095-1.153
11Pittsburgh Steelers530.55363.6%-1.8-4.02.2-0.1350.6250.2480.2460.0070.010
12Dallas Cowboys350.44742.7%-1.5-3.62.1-0.1350.160-0.322-0.5750.531-0.658
13Carolina Panthers260.39531.6%-2.6-3.81.20.000-0.439-0.7660.8030.153-1.751
14Miami Dolphins440.50046.8%-2.4-3.41.0-0.135-0.3710.1581.2010.945-1.799
15Detroit Lions440.50049.6%2.82.00.8-0.1350.335-0.426-0.728-0.4811.435
16Baltimore Ravens620.60568.0%1.41.5-0.10.0000.678-0.1170.429-0.0371.047
17New Orleans Saints350.44753.8%4.45.3-0.90.0000.425-0.152-0.350-0.078-0.846
18Minnesota Vikings540.52544.9%-0.10.9-1.10.0670.2380.301-0.344-0.2830.520
19Washington Redskins360.42537.7%1.83.0-1.2-0.067-0.410-0.2210.3281.173-2.303
20New York Jets350.44748.7%0.11.8-1.70.135-0.642-0.396-0.278-0.5150.695
21San Diego Chargers440.50051.2%-3.3-1.4-1.90.0000.5380.6390.2740.319-1.771
22Arizona Cardinals450.47544.0%-5.7-3.2-2.50.067-0.935-0.356-0.125-0.3561.205
23St Louis Rams350.44738.0%-4.2-1.4-2.80.067-1.223-0.1240.027-0.2950.548
24Cincinnati Bengals350.44741.3%1.26.3-5.10.000-0.0440.6590.152-1.164-0.604
25Philadelphia Eagles350.44747.5%-6.1-0.6-5.50.0000.452-1.300-0.5860.675-0.241
26Indianapolis Colts530.55351.3%-4.11.7-5.80.135-0.8120.623-0.7970.3391.512
27Cleveland Browns270.37531.5%-6.80.4-7.20.067-1.406-0.514-0.7010.163-0.109
28Oakland Raiders350.44745.1%-0.37.3-7.50.000-0.298-0.1940.182-1.9581.268
29Buffalo Bills350.44738.4%-0.28.6-8.8-0.135-0.4750.1910.1150.035-0.731
30Jacksonville Jaguars170.34232.8%-9.12.6-11.70.000-1.202-0.242-0.449-0.187-0.921
31Tennessee Titans360.42541.6%-2.010.2-12.10.067-1.401-0.9790.688-0.7050.830
32Kansas City Chiefs170.34236.9%-8.86.3-15.00.000-1.021-1.332-0.132-1.1400.626


KEY:
Talent - Regressed WPct talent for 2012; Talent = (W + 5.5) / (G + 11)
PWAG - Probability of Winning Any Game
Off - Offensive SRS (positive = better)
Def - Defensive SRS (negative = better)
SRS - Simple Rating System (Off + Def)
wpa_loc - Win Probability Added from location of games
wpa_veg - Win Probability Added from Vegas lines
wpa_1st - Win Probability Added in 1st quarter
wpa_2nd - Win Probability Added in 2nd quarter
wpa_3rd - Win Probability Added in 3rd quarter
wpa_4ot - Win Probability Added in 4th qtr/overtime

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Chase Stuart November 6, 2012 at 1:20 pm

So the Redskins, Dolphins and Chargers are the biggest “chokers” this year, with the Panthers and Pats not far behind. That feels about right to me. Interesting to note that Miami and Washington were also bottom 4 in terms of 4Q WPA in 2011 with different quarterbacks and in Miami’s coach, a different head coach. I’m inclined to think that’s just randomness, and I do believe the Dolphins are one of the better teams in the AFC.

I don’t really believe in the Colts, and obviously the Weighted SRS doesn’t, either. But that was a huge win for tiebreaker purposes, and Indy has been excellent in 4Q WPA. I wasn’t on board their playoff wagon before, but they may just get there.

Reply

George November 6, 2012 at 6:47 pm

Nice post as usual – one quick question as I’m looking to workup another rating system (just for fun to go along with the Winston Least Squares style method); the NFL SRS is like the Massey 1997 thesis style arrangement with two extra vectors to essentially calculate Off SRS and Def SRS (I went and bought the Meyer book and set myself up a matrix in Excel which I haven’t split into O and D – yet!) but the NCAA SRS is a different arrangement as it is calculating SOS (or is it the same principle as the Massey arrangement)?

Reply

Chase Stuart November 6, 2012 at 7:00 pm

Neil can explain better than I can, but there shouldn’t be any difference (I think) between the NFL and NCAA SRS (other than intended differences).

Reply

George November 6, 2012 at 7:12 pm

Thanks that’s really handy to know, as working out matrix’s in Excel isn’t fun (initially but not too bad once you’ve got something set up) but I can see how you can work the NFL numbers through above doing it essentially as described in the Carl Meyer book, but I couldn’t see how you did it the NCAA way and hence wondered if it was a different process.

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