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Roster Building with AV Outliers

Today’s article comes from friend of the site Pierce Conboy, whom you can find in the comments as pgc or on Twitter as @pgconb. Below the line are his words. Enjoy.


 

Pro Football Reference is undoubtedly one of my favorite websites, so initial apologies for what amounts to taking pot shots at Approximate Value (AV) in a way that they did not intend, though consistent with how it’s widely misused by football fans at large.

This project is fairly nebulous and has no actual rules aside from a general attempt to create an extremely high AV team that would get crushed by a low AV team. I held my offense and defense below 100 AV apiece which was my arbitrary self-imposed ceiling along with keeping the average era from each of the two teams relatively close.

Here are the squads I came up with, having also consulted with Bryan, Bipedal-Moose from Reddit and cribbing from Turney and Troup articles at Pro Football Journal.

Among the skill position players on the high AV team (HAV), Lydell Mitchell provides a solid all purpose back that was a workhorse, leading the league in touches while putting up reasonable YPC and top tier receiving numbers. However, 23 AV is a gaudy number and tough to pass up. Tucker, Cobb, and Brown provide decent talent and production but by and large are not overly noteworthy in their chosen season or career.

Team low AV (LAV) relies on early seasons of two HOF TEs as well as decent seasons from fringe HOF WRs. While I like the TE selections, I suspect there is room to improve both WR choices at the 7-9 AV range, but I’ve yet to stumble into anything eye opening. McCoy is the best RB I could find at ~10 AV that also had a reasonably balanced skill set.

The QB position is where the two teams dramatically part ways. Cassel ate 47 sacks while being inferior to Brees in every meaningful stat ever created. There are plenty of 16, 15 and 14 AV QBs for anyone trying to find bigger bargains.

There are endless ways to approach the OL. I opted for low AV seasons from HOF caliber players. Walter looked great in all of the games on YouTube I’ve checked out, despite not winning any accolades. After the 2000 season he won postseason honors for the next 8 seasons. Macek and Slater were both graded ‘Blue’ by Pro Scout Inc. Hutchinson perhaps has the most egregious AV, having won 1st Team PFWA AP, 1st Team SN AP, 2nd Team Associated Press AP (by 2 votes), 1st Team All-Conference, and NFLPA Offensive lineman of the year. 2015 Martin passed every conceivable eye test and graded as lights out dominant by PFF.

With the exception of Jeff Saturday, who was unceremoniously benched in his chosen season, the remaining 4 players were reasonably talented lineman that were boosted due to the formula’s offensive performance components.

Burnett, Nash, Larsen, and Alfred Williams combine for an astronomical 72 AV. Burnett and Larsen played well in their respective years but are added due to their AV not film. Purely from box score scouting, Nash’s ’84 does look fairly impressive. While a fine collection of players, it pales when compared to prime seasons of Deacon, Snacks, Aaron Donald, and Selmon. All among the best ever at either rushing the passer, stopping the run, or well-rounded ability. I may have gone overboard with spending DL AV, there is a lot of room to creatively cull 10 or more points from my selections.

Football purists may scoff at LT being a 43 OLB, and LT fans may feel their blood pressure rise at his HAV inclusion. Swapping Alfred Williams for someone that can play as a 2nd ILB (like Randall Godfrey 19 AV) can mostly solve the alignment issue, if needed. The reason for LTs inclusion is that he managed 23 AV in what was likely his 6th to 8th best season in the NFL. That is a huge disconnect at 23 AV, even for someone who is possibly the greatest defensive player in NFL history. [1]Note from Bryan: Taylor himself has said 1985 was a bad year for him, and contemporary scouts graded him as merely good and far from his normal standard. That it preceded his best season is a fun … Continue reading Dan Currie is going to be a huge deficit; he was one of the first OLBs I thought of given how I remembered him looking in 1962 film. This carries over into the Championship game where he intercepts a tipped pass and is unable to make an athletic return (his legs give out and he flails uncontested into the grass).

Transitioning back to LAV, the best season from possibly the best MLB of all time is hard to overlook at just 10 AV. Seau and Lavonte have both played most every LB position, and were stellar in 1991 and 2014.

The strategy used to pick OL was also used for secondary players. Nolan Cromwell was graded by PSI as the best S in the NFL despite not winning any award, he would grab 1st team All Pro his following 3 seasons. Leroy Butler had a 39.4 passer rating in coverage according to Stats LLC. Like Cromwell, he received no recognition but would grab 1st team all pro his next 3 seasons. Jimmy Johnson follows this general trend. Nnamdi and Chris Harris were stellar according to PFF along with anyone that watched them play.

The HAV secondary is filled with great seasons, though they lose a lot of luster given their supporting cast and opposition. Duerson won’t be able to play in the box as much as he would like given how poor Curries coverage will be, and Krause won’t have one of the greatest DLs help force errant passes as he plays 20 yards deep. PFF has Finnegan giving up 0 touchdowns during his 20 AV campaign which is commendable.

The punter and year may raise some eyebrows among special team aficionados. Shane Lechler was great in 2009, leading the league in both Gross and NET punting average, possibly the best season of his career. However, most would agree his season was demonstrably below 2016 Hekker who beat him on NET putting average, touchbacks, TB %, along with punts inside the 20 and inside the 20 %, and crushing the league in Net Yards over Average. Another factor, of course, was Lechler doubling his AV.

Minimal time was given to researching kickers. I grabbed a fantastic season from Tucker, who is likely the best kicker in NFL history and contrasted it with the highest pure kicker AV I could find. People could get a little cheeky here and find higher AVs by grabbing an older kicker that also punted.

If any reader feels so inclined, I would enjoy critiques on better seasons for less or similar AV, along with ways to cripple the high AV team while keeping in relatively good faith.

 

References

References
1 Note from Bryan: Taylor himself has said 1985 was a bad year for him, and contemporary scouts graded him as merely good and far from his normal standard. That it preceded his best season is a fun anecdote, I think.
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