On September 7th, I announced the 38 Questions Contest. There were 82 entries, so that gives us some data to analyze. Let’s look at what turned out to be the most lopsided questions:
1) Number of wins by the team with the second-most wins (72) vs. Number of wins by Washington and Oakland combined (10)
I am not surprised that more people voted for the first option there, but the magnitude caught me off guard. Last year, the team with the second-most wins had 12 wins, although it had been 13 in each of the previous five years. If you had to guess, 13 is probably the most likely answer here, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that Washington and Oakland aren’t likely to combine for 13 (or more) wins. This one looked like a slam dunk after week one, but is on shakier ground after week two.
2t) Number of wins by the Ravens (69) vs. Number of wins by the Lions (13)
I wasn’t exactly in the dark about the preseason projections for these two teams, even if the Lions won one more game last year. This was a throwback to the very first edition of this contest, so I included it as a tip of the cap to Doug. Still, given the rules of this contest — “If the Lions and Ravens end up with the same number of wins, then each Lions-backer will get a point and each Ravens-backer will not” — I thought that might make people lean towards the underdog a bit more here. Not so much. Right now, though, both teams are 0-2.
2t) Yardage of the longest passing TD thrown by Derek Carr (69) vs. Number of distinct players to have a 100-(or more)-yard rushing game (13)
There were 44 distinct players to hit the century mark in ’14, 48 in 2013, and 42 in 2012. So that’s our baseline for the second part of the question; what about the first? Carr did throw a 77-yard touchdown last year to Andre Holmes, but his next-longest one went for 47 yards. But Carr hit Amari Cooper with a 68-yard touchdown yesterday, so this bet is pretty much toast.
4t) Number of wins by the Packers (67) vs. Number of interceptions thrown by Aaron Rodgers (15)
This is a fun one, because it pits a couple of stats you don’t often think about comparing. One twist here is a Rodgers injury effects both sides of the line. We can pencil in Green Bay for 10-12 wins, and Rodgers hasn’t thrown double digit interceptions since 2010. But given how random interceptions can be, I thought this one might attract a more event split.
Here’s your crazy Rodgers stat of the day: Since 2011, Rodgers has 144 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions, while Sam Bradford has 101 fewer touchdown passes and two more interceptions. Through two weeks, the score is Green Bay 2, Rodgers INTs 0.
4t) Number of J.J. Watt sacks (67) vs. Number of total TDs scored by Le’Veon Bell (15)
This one really surprised me. Both Bell and Watt can be expected to get around 1 sack/TD per game, but maybe Bell’s two game suspension was enough to cause this lopsided result? Watt has bounced from 20.5 to 10.5 to 20.5 sacks the last three years, and it’s important to remember that sacks can be pretty inconsistent from year to year. Although with three sacks in two weeks, Watt is off to a very nice start. Bell had eight touchdowns in his last five full games of 2014, and I expect big things out of him this year. But betting against Watt never sounds like a good idea.
6t) Number of rushing yards by Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray (65); combined vs. Number of rushing yards by Chris Ivory; Todd Gurley; and Frank Gore; combined (17)
Week 1 results: Ivory – 91 rushing yards; Gore – 31; Peterson – 31; Murray – 9; Gurley – DNP.
Week 2 results: Peterson – 134; Murray – 2. Ivory and Gore play tonight. I have a feeling that if we re-ran this poll, this would be much more even.
6t) Number of interceptions caught by Darrelle Revis (65) vs. Number of games started by RG3 (17)
This one is 0-0 right now, and could stay that way for awhile.
Finally, here’s one that is quickly becoming one of my favorites:
Number of Passing TDs thrown by Marcus Mariota vs. Margin of the Titans biggest win
With four touchdown throws in the opener and two more yesterday, Mariota is off to a really good start. On the other hand, Tennessee notched a 28-point win in week 1. Stay tuned, although right now, the underdog (only 27% of people picked option 2) is looking pretty good.
Finally, below is the full voting breakdown:
| Rk | Choice 1 | Perc | Choice 2 | Perc |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Number of wins by the team with the second-most wins | 87.8% | Number of wins by Washington and Oakland combined | 12.2% |
| 2 | Number of wins by the Ravens | 84.1% | Number of wins by the Lions | 15.9% |
| 2 | Yardage of the longest passing TD thrown by Derek Carr. | 84.1% | Number of distinct players to have a 100-(or more)-yard rushing game | 15.9% |
| 4 | Number of wins by the Packers | 81.7% | Number of interceptions thrown by Aaron Rodgers | 18.3% |
| 4 | Number of J.J. Watt sacks | 81.7% | Number of total TDs scored by Le’Veon Bell | 18.3% |
| 6 | Number of rushing yards by Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray; combined | 79.3% | Number of rushing yards by Chris Ivory; Todd Gurley; and Frank Gore; combined | 20.7% |
| 6 | Number of interceptions caught by Darrelle Revis | 79.3% | Number of games started by RG3 | 20.7% |
| 8 | Maximum number of TDs thrown by Drew Brees in a single game | 75.6% | Number of playoff (non-Super Bowl) games won by the visiting team | 24.4% |
| 9 | Number of Passing TDs thrown by the league’s leader in passing TDs | 74.4% | Maximum number of points scored in a game by the Ravens | 25.6% |
| 10 | Number of Passing TDs thrown by Marcus Mariota. | 73.2% | Margin of the Titans biggest win. | 26.8% |
| 10 | Number of LeSean McCoy rushing yards | 73.2% | Number of Sammy Watkins receiving yards | 26.8% |
| 12 | Number of wins by the Giants | 72% | Number of wins by the Jets | 28% |
| 12 | Number of rushing TDs by the rookie with the most rushing TDs | 72% | Number of postseason games where the winner scores under 32 points | 28% |
| 14 | Number of Jamaal Charles games with 100 yards from scrimmage | 70.7% | Number of Blair Walsh missed field goals and missed extra points; combined | 29.3% |
| 15 | Minimum number of passing TDs by a player from this group: Tony Romo; Peyton Manning; Andrew Luck; Ben Roethlisberger; Philip Rivers; Matt Ryan | 69.5% | Maximum number of passing TDs by a player from this group: Ryan Fitzpatrick; Geno Smith; Josh McCown; Johnny Manziel; Brian Hoyer; and Ryan Mallett | 30.5% |
| 16 | Number of wins by the Cowboys | 68.3% | Number of wins by the Dolphins | 31.7% |
| 16 | Number of receiving yards by the Jaguars leader in receiving yards | 68.3% | Number of Blake Bortles rushing yards times three | 31.7% |
| 16 | NFC Championship Game victories by the Packers and Seahawks | 68.3% | NFC Championship Game victories by the rest of the NFC | 31.7% |
| 16 | Number of playoff games won by the Patriots | 68.3% | Number of playoff games won by NFC South teams; plus 0.5 | 31.7% |
| 20 | Number of COMBINED receiving TDs by Pierre Garcon; Eddie Royal; Jarvis Landry; and Percy Harvin | 67.1% | Number of receiving TDs by the player with the MOST in this group: Dez Bryant; Odell Beckham; Julio Jones; and A.J. Green | 32.9% |
| 20 | Number of interceptions thrown by Kirk Cousins | 67.1% | Number of games started by Sam Bradford | 32.9% |
| 22 | Number of wins by the last place team in the AFC East | 65.9% | Number of wins by the Bears; minus one | 34.1% |
| 23 | AFC Championship Game victories by AFC East and AFC West | 64.6% | AFC Championship Game victories by AFC South and AFC North | 35.4% |
| 23 | Number of double-digit losses suffered by the Eagles during the regular season | 64.6% | Number of interceptions thrown in the Super Bowl | 35.4% |
| 25 | Number of rushing yards by Jeremy Hill | 63.4% | Number of combined passing yards by all Bills players EXCEPT FOR Tyrod Taylor. | 36.6% |
| 25 | Number of interceptions thrown by Jameis Winston; minus two | 63.4% | Number of interceptions thrown by Jay Cutler | 36.6% |
| 25 | Highest single-game receiving yardage by a player from this group: Tavon Austin; Ladarius Green; and Shane Vereen | 63.4% | Number of receptions by the player with the MOST receptions from this group: Rob Gronkowski; Greg Olsen; and Martellus Bennett | 36.6% |
| 25 | Number of divisions whose 2015 champ is the same as the 2014 champ; minus 0.5 | 63.4% | Number of divisions whose 2015 champ is NOT the same as the 2014 champ | 36.6% |
| 29 | Number of receiving TDs by C.J. Spiller and Danny Woodhead; combined | 62.2% | Number of rushing TDs by Cam Newton | 37.8% |
| 30 | Number of catches by the player with MOST receptions in this group: Eddie Lacy; Giovani Bernard; Ameer Abdullah; C.J. Anderson | 57.3% | Total points scored in the Super Bowl | 42.7% |
| 31 | Number of wins by the 49ers | 56.1% | Number of wins by the Bucs | 43.9% |
| 31 | Total number of TD passes thrown by the Giants. | 56.1% | Number of games started by QBs drafted in the 2015 draft; minus three | 43.9% |
| 31 | Number of combined kick and punt return TDs by Darren Sproles | 56.1% | Number of combined kick and punt return TDs by Devin Hester | 43.9% |
| 34 | Number of road wins by the Seahawks | 54.9% | Number of home wins by the Rams | 45.1% |
| 34 | Super Bowl Championships won by the Patriots; Colts; Broncos; Cowboys; and Seahawks | 54.9% | Super Bowl Championships won by all other teams | 45.1% |
| 36 | Number of wins by the Cardinals | 53.7% | Number of wins by the Falcons | 46.3% |
| 36 | Number of players who throw 35 or more TD passes | 53.7% | Number of players in the NFL’s top 10 in rushing yards who were born in the 1990s | 46.3% |
| 38 | Number of points scored in the NFC Championship game | 52.4% | Number of points scored in the AFC Championship game; minus 5 | 47.6% |