On September 13, 2008, Doug Drinen wrote this post, which I reproduce in full below.
With the combination arrest/release of Aaron Hernandez stacked upon five surgeries in seven months for Rob Gronkowski and the departure of Wes Welker to Denver, it’s fair to say that many are wondering about the fate of the New England passing game. In addition to those three, Tom Brady is without Brandon Lloyd (free agent) and Danny Woodhead (San Diego), the fourth and fifth leading receivers on the 2012 Patriots. As Jason Lisk pointed out, that puts Brady in historically bad territory when it comes to roster turnover.
I’m hearing and reading a lot of crazy stuff this week.
So I just want to document my predictions that (a) the Patriots will win at least 11 games this year, (b) the Patriots will clinch the East before week 17, and (c) Matt Cassel will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback from here out.
That is all.
So today’s post doubles as a temperature check and a contest entry. Please predict the following for Tom Brady in 2013, based on the assumption that he is responsible for 99.4% of all Patriots pass attempts by quarterbacks for the second year in a row. To the extent he is not, I will pro-rate his numbers for purposes of judging the contest. To enter, simply copy and paste this table below in the comments and fill out each line.
Brady’s number of pass attempts:
Brady’s number of passing yards:
Brady’s number of passing touchdowns:
Brady’s number of interceptions:
Brady’s number of sacks:
Brady’s number of sack yards lost:
Last year, for example, this would have been a perfect form.
Your name: Chase
Brady’s number of pass attempts: 637
Brady’s number of passing yards: 4827
Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 34
Brady’s number of interceptions: 8
Brady’s number of sacks: 27
Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 82
Feel free to write as much or as little as you like in the commentary section.
How will a winner be judged? You can read the formula if you like, but it essentially will be how close you get to predicting how much value Brady will actually provide this year. Here is what I will do after the end of the 2013 season:
1) Calculate Brady’s actual Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt based upon his 2013 results.
2) Subtract the 2013 league average ANY/A from Brady’s ANY/A.
3) Multiply the result in step (2) by the number of (pass attempts + sacks) for Brady in 2013, pro-rated to the extent he does is not responsible for 99.4% of all (pass attempts + sacks) for all Patriots quarterbacks in 2013. Note that for these purposes, I will consider all passes by Tim Tebow as passes thrown by a quarterback.
4) Repeat steps 1 through 3 but use the projected ANY/A from each entrant.
5) Calculate the difference between the result in step (3) and the result in step (4). The entry with the smallest differential wins.
1. Submit your projections in the form provided.
2. You may enter until an appropriate amount of time has passed from the date of this post, with appropriate being determined in my sole discretion. The winner will be announced after the season.
3. Any ambiguities in the rules will be clarified by me in whatever way causes me the least amount of hassle.
4. If someone thinks of a better way to measure the projections, I reserve the right to use that system instead, pursuant to Rule #3.
5. Honor and Glory, and something else I think of between now and January, will be the two prizes.