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On September 13, 2008, Doug Drinen wrote this post, which I reproduce in full below.

I’m hearing and reading a lot of crazy stuff this week.

So I just want to document my predictions that (a) the Patriots will win at least 11 games this year, (b) the Patriots will clinch the East before week 17, and (c) Matt Cassel will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback from here out.

That is all.

You think I'm going to lose my top 5 receivers next year? Hahaha. Ok

You think I'm going to lose my top 5 receivers next year? Hahaha. Ok.

With the combination arrest/release of Aaron Hernandez stacked upon five surgeries in seven months for Rob Gronkowski and the departure of Wes Welker to Denver, it’s fair to say that many are wondering about the fate of the New England passing game. In addition to those three, Tom Brady is without Brandon Lloyd (free agent) and Danny Woodhead (San Diego), the fourth and fifth leading receivers on the 2012 Patriots. As Jason Lisk pointed out, that puts Brady in historically bad territory when it comes to roster turnover.

So today’s post doubles as a temperature check and a contest entry. Please predict the following for Tom Brady in 2013, based on the assumption that he is responsible for 99.4% of all Patriots pass attempts by quarterbacks for the second year in a row. To the extent he is not, I will pro-rate his numbers for purposes of judging the contest. To enter, simply copy and paste this table below in the comments and fill out each line.

Your name:
Brady’s number of pass attempts:
Brady’s number of passing yards:
Brady’s number of passing touchdowns:
Brady’s number of interceptions:
Brady’s number of sacks:
Brady’s number of sack yards lost:
Commentary:

Last year, for example, this would have been a perfect form.

Your name: Chase
Brady’s number of pass attempts: 637
Brady’s number of passing yards: 4827
Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 34
Brady’s number of interceptions: 8
Brady’s number of sacks: 27
Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 82

Feel free to write as much or as little as you like in the commentary section.

How will a winner be judged? You can read the formula if you like, but it essentially will be how close you get to predicting how much value Brady will actually provide this year. Here is what I will do after the end of the 2013 season:

1) Calculate Brady’s actual Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt based upon his 2013 results.
2) Subtract the 2013 league average ANY/A from Brady’s ANY/A.
3) Multiply the result in step (2) by the number of (pass attempts + sacks) for Brady in 2013, pro-rated to the extent he does is not responsible for 99.4% of all (pass attempts + sacks) for all Patriots quarterbacks in 2013. Note that for these purposes, I will consider all passes by Tim Tebow as passes thrown by a quarterback.
4) Repeat steps 1 through 3 but use the projected ANY/A from each entrant.
5) Calculate the difference between the result in step (3) and the result in step (4). The entry with the smallest differential wins.

Contest rules:

1. Submit your projections in the form provided.

2. You may enter until an appropriate amount of time has passed from the date of this post, with appropriate being determined in my sole discretion. The winner will be announced after the season.

3. Any ambiguities in the rules will be clarified by me in whatever way causes me the least amount of hassle.

4. If someone thinks of a better way to measure the projections, I reserve the right to use that system instead, pursuant to Rule #3.

5. Honor and Glory, and something else I think of between now and January, will be the two prizes.

{ 30 comments }
  • Bob June 27, 2013, 1:18 am

    Your name: Bob
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 580
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4550
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 35
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 12
    Brady’s number of sacks: 30
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 186
    Commentary: “Roman numerals? They never even tried to teach us that in school.”

    Reply
  • Arif Hasan June 27, 2013, 2:42 am

    Your name: Arif
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 580
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4524
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 32
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 6
    Brady’s number of sacks: 29
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 160

    Reply
  • Dan June 27, 2013, 2:54 am

    Your name: Dan
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 628
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4773
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 34
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 11
    Brady’s number of sacks: 29
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 179
    Commentary: This space intentionally left blank.

    Reply
  • Rob June 27, 2013, 4:00 am

    Your name: Rob
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 592
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4695
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 32
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 8
    Brady’s number of sacks: 24
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 70

    Reply
  • ChevSS454 June 27, 2013, 6:21 am

    Your name: Will
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 590
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4600
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 31
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 9
    Brady’s number of sacks: 24
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 91

    Reply
  • Willy June 27, 2013, 6:51 am

    Your name:
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 650
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4720
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 35
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 13
    Brady’s number of sacks: 35
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 100
    Commentary: And lo, the Lord said, I hath delivered unto you the Patriot Way and unmatched consistency, and though the disciples Aaron and Brandon be lost and not found, and the disciple Robert be at once sound of body and not sound of body, and the prophet Wesley hath rebelled against me, I have given you my son, Tim of Tebow, so that he may share the burden of the Way of the Patriot, which shall be known as the Patriot Way, which shall continue, unabated and unending, until the postseason.

    Reply
  • C M Sweet June 27, 2013, 7:24 am

    Your name: C M Sweet
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 660
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4787
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 32
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 12
    Brady’s number of sacks: 31
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 179.8

    Reply
  • Kevin June 27, 2013, 7:46 am

    Your name: Kevin
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 605
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4438
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 31
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 11
    Brady’s number of sacks: 26
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 85
    Commentary:

    Reply
  • Joe D June 27, 2013, 8:47 am

    Name: Joe
    B’s # pass attempts: 589
    B’s # passing yards: 3890
    B’s # touchdowns: 24
    B’s # interceptions: 14
    B’s # sacks: 32
    B’s # sack yards lost: 115
    Commentary: It’s the beginning of the end

    Reply
  • Quinton June 27, 2013, 9:18 am

    Your name: Quinton
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 672
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4712
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 32
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 6
    Brady’s number of sacks: 30
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 95

    Reply
  • Shattenjager June 27, 2013, 12:55 pm

    Your name: Shattenjager (If you want a real name, it is Damien.)
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 625
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4596
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 31
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 6
    Brady’s number of sacks: 29
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 181
    Commentary: Apparently nearly everyone pretty much agrees on TDs and yardage.
    I think Brady showed noticeable decline last season and it’s going to continue, but a declining Brady still will produce damn good statistics. I wondered about his pass attempts–with all of the personnel change and losing a couple of the team’s most versatile pieces (Hernandez and Woodhead), it seems likely that the supersonic no huddle stuff will have to be reduced, even if it’s only for the early part of the season. With fewer plays, obviously he should have fewer pass attempts, but I also think that the passing game will be rather less effective (mostly due to Brady’s natural decline rather than the changes in weapons, though also due to counting on Amendola), which will lead to having to pass on a higher percentage of plays. Add that up and he ends up in about the same range of pass attempts as the last two seasons.
    I also predict that Brandon Lloyd will be back.

    Reply
  • Richie June 27, 2013, 3:10 pm

    Your name: Richie
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 601
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4,748
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 36
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 9
    Brady’s number of sacks: 26
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 191

    Reply
    • Richie December 27, 2013, 8:23 pm

      In week 17, I need:
      -3 pass attempts
      527 yards
      12 TD’s
      -1 interception
      -13 sacks
      -58 sack yards

      I really missed on the TD’s (high) and sacks (low).

      Reply
  • Adam June 27, 2013, 3:40 pm

    1. 663
    2. 4423
    3. 31
    4. 11
    5. 31
    6. 94

    Reply
  • Bob June 27, 2013, 4:10 pm

    Nice breakdown of where Hernandez lined up and how defenses responded via Pro Football Focus:

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/06/27/neils-nfl-daily-june-27-2013/

    Reply
  • Danish June 27, 2013, 5:01 pm

    Your name: Danish
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 575
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4200
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 29
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 8
    Brady’s number of sacks: 27
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 82
    Commentary: The passing game will be less efficient -> fewer called passes. Less efficiency -> more trailing -> more passes. Lack of familiarity -> lower tempo. Therefore the overrall fall in pass attempts. Lack of familiarity will also mean slightly higher int-ratio and (coverage) sack-rate.

    Reply
  • Red June 27, 2013, 8:14 pm

    Name: Red
    Passes: 599
    Yards: 4444
    TD: 29
    INT: 13
    Sacks: 24
    Sack Yards: 163
    Commentary: Brady begins his age-related decline, but his missing receivers won’t hurt nearly as much as people think. Patriots offense = interchangeable parts.

    Reply
  • Lil' Mac June 30, 2013, 1:36 pm

    Your name: Lil’ Mac
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 546
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 3,224
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 21
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 14
    Brady’s number of sacks: 26
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 146
    Commentary: Brady misses last three games with dislocated shoulder; Patriots fail to make the playoffs.

    Reply
  • Ed July 2, 2013, 10:45 am

    Your name: Ed
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 565
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4397
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 28
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 14
    Brady’s number of sacks: 28
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 201
    Commentary: I took Bradys best pre-going-berzerk-party season (2005) and prorated it based on my expected pass attempts. I don’t believe he was suddenly twice the QB in 2007, but he did suddenly have twice the weaponry. And now he suddenly has probably less than half the weaponry. Hes more experienced, but is also getting old. His run game is getting better again, like the mid 200s with Dillon, which explains a decline is pass attempt. I am not convinced the Gronk or Amendola can stay healthy, and if either, or both, go down, what then?

    Reply
  • Wade Iuele July 25, 2013, 10:34 am

    Your name: Wade Iuele
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 545
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4085
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 30
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 11
    Brady’s number of sacks: 26
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 163
    Commentary: I have no idea what’s going to happen with the Patriots, so I’m putting down a completely average season for Tom Brady. Those numbers still look amazing though.

    Reply
  • Joe July 29, 2013, 9:38 pm

    Your name: Joe
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 607
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4555
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 28
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 12
    Brady’s number of sacks: 28
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 196

    Reply
  • John Boles August 7, 2013, 1:44 pm

    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 612
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4,966
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 36
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 7
    Brady’s number of sacks: 25
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 76
    Commentary: I think Brady still has another season of improvement, rather than decline, left in him. I expect him to throw a little less, but be more efficient in the endzone and slightly more protective of the ball and himself.

    Reply
  • James September 4, 2013, 10:25 am

    James
    Brady’s number of pass attempts: 580
    Brady’s number of passing yards: 4470
    Brady’s number of passing touchdowns: 30
    Brady’s number of interceptions: 12
    Brady’s number of sacks: 29
    Brady’s number of sack yards lost: 175
    Commentary: I think his rate stats will decline slightly, but I’m torn on whether his attempts will go down significantly. Running will be more viable, but I also expect the Pats to be trailing more (which would also feedback to lower rate stats).

    Reply
  • James September 26, 2013, 3:36 pm

    With three games in the books the Patriots have had a terrible passing attack with an ANY/A of 4.95! That’s significantly below league average and by far the worst of Brady’s career, giving Lil’ Mac the early lead.

    Hey Chase, when you say “league average ANY/A” in the scoring system, does that mean average ANY/A for every pass, or average ANY/A per team?

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart September 26, 2013, 9:08 pm

      League average = average ANY/A for every pass

      Reply
  • Richie October 18, 2013, 6:28 pm

    Through six games, on pace for:
    635 attempts
    3,947 yards
    21 TD
    11 Int
    43 Sacks
    293 Sack Yds

    It looks like sacks (high), sack yards (high) and TD (low) are the biggest surprises so far.

    Reply
  • James January 2, 2014, 11:36 am

    So it’s fair to say we were pretty wrong.

    Reply
    • Arif Hasan January 2, 2014, 12:51 pm

      Yea.

      Although that Dan guy hit the number of attempts and interceptions on the freaking nose. Ed got pretty close on total yards, TDs and INTs.

      Adam might be closer than anyone when it is all said and done.

      Reply

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