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Checkdowns: The Complete History of Brady-Manning Matchups

by Neil Paine on November 25, 2013

in Checkdowns, Data Dump, History, Quarterbacks, Totally Useless

Presented below, without comment, is a table of every matchup featuring Tom Brady & Peyton Manning as the starting quarterbacks. Enjoy:

Date
Home Team
Favorite
Patriots Passing
Colts/Broncos Passing
Advantage
Outcome
2001-09-30NWECLT -11.513-23, 159 yds, 0 TD, 0 Int, 6.63 ANYPA25-43, 240 yds, 1 TD, 3 Int, 2.72 ANYPA+3.91, NWE44-13, NWE
2001-10-21CLTCLT -10.517-21, 262 yds, 4 TD, 0 Int, 16.29 ANYPA22-34, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 8.55 ANYPA+7.73, NWE38-17, NWE
2003-11-30CLTCLT -3.526-35, 226 yds, 2 TD, 2 Int, 4.76 ANYPA29-48, 272 yds, 4 TD, 1 Int, 6.14 ANYPA+1.38, CLT38-34, NWE
2004-01-18 (C)NWENWE -3.522-37, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5.73 ANYPA23-47, 208 yds, 1 TD, 4 Int, 0.94 ANYPA+4.79, NWE24-14, NWE
2004-09-09NWENWE -326-38, 320 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 8.38 ANYPA16-29, 244 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 7.97 ANYPA+0.41, NWE27-24, NWE
2005-01-16 (D)NWENWE -118-27, 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 4.50 ANYPA27-42, 230 yds, 0 TD, 1 Int, 4.30 ANYPA+0.20, NWE20-3, NWE
2005-11-07NWECLT -325-40, 254 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 7.48 ANYPA28-37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 9.08 ANYPA+1.60, CLT40-21, CLT
2006-11-05NWENWE -2.520-35, 201 yds, 0 TD, 4 Int, 0.60 ANYPA20-36, 301 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 7.59 ANYPA+6.99, CLT27-20, CLT
2007-01-21 (C)CLTCLT -321-34, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5.74 ANYPA27-47, 330 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 6.10 ANYPA+0.36, CLT38-34, CLT
2007-11-04CLTNWE -521-32, 237 yds, 3 TD, 2 Int, 6.09 ANYPA16-27, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 6.17 ANYPA+0.08, CLT24-20, NWE
2009-11-15CLTCLT -1.529-42, 364 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int, 8.61 ANYPA28-44, 316 yds, 4 TD, 2 Int, 6.80 ANYPA+1.81, NWE35-34, CLT
2010-11-21NWENWE -4.519-25, 178 yds, 2 TD, 0 Int, 8.38 ANYPA38-52, 396 yds, 4 TD, 3 Int, 6.56 ANYPA+1.83, NWE31-28, NWE
2012-10-07NWENWE -623-31, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int, 6.09 ANYPA31-44, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 8.35 ANYPA+2.26, DEN31-21, NWE
2013-11-24NWEDEN -2.534-50, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 7.25 ANYPA19-36, 132 yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 3.34 ANYPA+3.90, NWE34-31, NWE

{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }

Neil Paine November 25, 2013 at 11:37 am

In 10 of the 14 matchups, the team that won the passing battle (by ANY/A) also won the game. But 3 of the 4 games in which the better passing team didn’t win broke in Brady’s favor — which is pretty much the Brady-Manning debate in a nutshell.

Reply

Dave November 25, 2013 at 1:28 pm

The patriots have also had 9 home games vs 5 road games.

Reply

Richie November 25, 2013 at 1:43 pm

Off topic:

I have been analyzing the win probability charts on PFR this season. Occasionally I come across some unusual things. I’m not sure if they are programming errors or what. There were 2 in the DEN-NE game:

- With 38 seconds left in regulation, Denver punted to the New England 11, leaving New England with a 39.4% chance of winning. Brady completed a 1-yard pass to Edelman and decreased the chance of winning to 28%. Then on the final play Shane Vereen ran for 8 yards, which increased their win percentage to 49.5%. The part I don’t understand is why New England’s win probability dropped so low after that Edelman completion. It was 2nd down with 22 seconds left in the game. It seems pretty unlikely that New England would lose the game in regulation at this point. Is this because Denver had 2 time outs remaining (I think)?

- After the muffed punt at the end of overtime, New England had a 92.8% win probability. Then Brady ran for -1 yard and +1 yards, but New England’s WP dropped to 86.8%. Why would this drop the win probability? The only thing I can guess is programming error. Because after the winning field goal, New England’s win probability is still only listed at 87.8%. So maybe the website doesn’t have sudden death programmed in?

Reply

Neil Paine November 28, 2013 at 12:30 pm

Yeah, I think we need to work on the WP method for OT games, since it’s currently ignoring the sudden-death aspect and treating a given situation like it happens in the 4th quarter instead.

Reply

Richie November 25, 2013 at 1:51 pm

Just think if the NFL didn’t realign in 2002, and the Colts and Patriots got to match up twice every season. Both teams benefitted from having minimal competition from divisional opponents from 2002-2010, so it’s hard to say how things would have shaped up if they had place twice per year.

But there were 8 seasons with Manning on the Colts and Brady on the Patriots – in different divisions. (I threw out 2008 and 2011).

Both teams won 10+ games every season, except 2002 when the Patriots only won 9 games.

Year Tm W L T Pct
2002 Indianapolis Colts 10 6 0 0.625
2002 New England Patriots 9 7 0 0.563

2003 Indianapolis Colts 12 4 0 0.750
2003 New England Patriots 14 2 0 0.875

2004 Indianapolis Colts 12 4 0 0.750
2004 New England Patriots 14 2 0 0.875

2005 Indianapolis Colts 14 2 0 0.875
2005 New England Patriots 10 6 0 0.625

2006 Indianapolis Colts 12 4 0 0.750
2006 New England Patriots 12 4 0 0.750

2007 Indianapolis Colts 13 3 0 0.813
2007 New England Patriots 16 0 0 1.000

2009 Indianapolis Colts 14 2 0 0.875
2009 New England Patriots 10 6 0 0.625

2010 Indianapolis Colts 10 6 0 0.625
2010 New England Patriots 14 2 0 0.875

Reply

Dave\ November 26, 2013 at 11:35 am

ahh, 2001-10-21, the David Patten game. 2 receiving td’s, 1 rush td, and 1 pass td.

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