Fantasy: Running Back Workload Part II (FBG)

July 19, 2014 Fantasy

Last week, I began my analysis of how to measure workload for running backs. Today brings Part II, another attempt to analyze workload and fantasy production. Last year, Joique Bell finished as the 15th best running back in fantasy football. Prior to 2013, Bell had just 82 career carries, all of which came in 2012.  […]

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Fantasy: Running Back Workload (FBG)

July 13, 2014 Fantasy

Over at Footballguys.com, I try to unravel the relationship between workload and age. Eight years ago, Doug wrote three articles on the topic; sadly, I’m not sure we’ve come very far since then. So I decided to at least begin the process of measuring how much of an impact “mileage” really has on running backs. […]

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Fantasy: Running Back Production In Wins and Losses (FBG)

July 12, 2014 Fantasy

Over at Footballguys.com, I looked at which running backs have produced the most extreme fantasy splits in wins and losses. With few exceptions, running backs generally score more fantasy points in wins than in losses.  For example, Adrian Peterson has averaged 22.2 FP/G over the last four years in wins, and 14.8 FP/G in losses, […]

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Fantasy Football: Quarterback By Committee 2014 (FBG)

June 21, 2014 Fantasy

For the eleventh straight years, I’ve written an Quarterback By Committee article for Footballguys.com. Here’s a quick peak at this year’s article: The general rule for QBBC fans is that the first six rounds of your draft should be used to assemble a wealth of talent at running back, wide receiver, and, if the draft […]

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Fantasy Football: Quarterback Rearview FP/G (FBG)

June 7, 2014 Fantasy

Every year, I adjust quarterback statistics — both fantasy and traditional — for strength of schedule. Today, a look at my article at Footballguys.com where I adjust the 2013 numbers for each quarterback for the quality of the opposing defenses. On Monday, I’ll be doing the same for quarterbacks using Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. […]

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A Starting Point for Running Back Projections in 2014 (FBG)

May 31, 2014 Fantasy

Last year, I provided a starting point for my running back projections. The idea is pretty simple: some fantasy statistics are much more repeatable, or sticky, than others. Over at Footballguys.com, I used the following formula to help isolate those factors: 1) Rushing Yards (R^2 = 0.47). The best-fit formula to predict rushing yards is: […]

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How to Project Receiving Yards in 2014 (FBG)

May 24, 2014 Fantasy

Last year, at Footballguys.com, I looked at the best starting point for wide receiver projections. Well, I’ve re-run the numbers and come up with the best starting point for wide receiver projections in 2014. The general philosophy is that receiving yards can be re-written using the following formula: Receiving yards = (Receiving Yards/Target) x (Targets/Team_Pass_Att) […]

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A closer look at running back aging patterns Part II

March 20, 2014 Fantasy

Two years ago, I wrote this post on running back aging curves. One conclusion from my research was that age 26 was the peak age for running backs, which was immediately followed by a steady decline phase until retirement. In that study, I only wanted to look at very good-to-excellent running backs in the modern […]

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Guest Post: Projecting Pass/Run Ratios in Week 14

December 8, 2013 Fantasy

Just above these words, it says “posted by Chase.” And it was literally posted by Chase, but the words below the line belong to Steve Buzzard, who has agreed to write this guest post for us. And I thank him for it. Steve is a lifelong Colts fan and long time fantasy football aficionado. He […]

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Trent Richardson and 400 carries

October 26, 2013 Fantasy

Trent Richardson has been a frequent topic of discussion at Football Perspective. In about 14 months, I’ve written the following articles: How often does the first running back selected in the draft become the best running back from his class? The field is always a better bet than one player: Only about 40% of the […]

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The Best “Real-Life” Fantasy Teams Since the Merger

August 25, 2013 Data Dump

More than a decade ago (on a side note: how is that possible?), Doug wrote a series of player comments highlighting specific topics as they related to the upcoming fantasy football season. I recommend that you read all of them, if for no other reason than the fact you should make it a policy to […]

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The Biggest Fluke Fantasy Seasons Ever (Part II)

August 10, 2013 Fantasy

Yesterday, I set up a method for ranking the flukiest fantasy football seasons since the NFL-AFL merger, finding players who had elite fantasy seasons that were completely out of step with the rest of their careers. I highlighted fluke years #21-30, so here’s a recap of the rankings thus far: 30. Lorenzo White, 1992 29. […]

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The Biggest Fluke Fantasy Seasons Ever (Part I)

August 9, 2013 Fantasy

There’s nothing like a truly great fluke fantasy season. Because they can help carry you to a league championship (and therefore eternal bragging rights — flags fly forever, after all), a random player who unexpectedly has a great season will often have a special place in the heart of every winning owner. And even if […]

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Is Wes Welker the Most PPR Receiver Ever?

August 1, 2013 Fantasy

If you don’t play fantasy football, you probably have no idea what this title means. Of course, it’s 2013, so if you don’t play fantasy football, you’re now the oddball. “PPR” stands for points per reception. About half of all fantasy leagues do not give any points for receptions, while the other half includes some […]

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Fantasy Football: Defensive Team By Committee (FBG)

July 21, 2013 Defense

For eleven straight years, I’ve written an article called “Defensive Team By Committee.” This year’s version is up at Footballguys.com (subscriber only). Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, making it difficult to predict which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will excel. And, at least in theory, the teams available at the ends of […]

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Fantasy Football: Expected VBD (FBG)

July 14, 2013 Fantasy

[Note: For the rest of the year, content over at Footballguys.com is subscriber-only.] Over at Footballguys.com, I build upon Joe Bryant’s VBD and create the idea of Expected VBD. While VBD is a great way to understand the value of players, Expected VBD explains how we draft. This concept is why even though you may […]

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Questioning the Narrative on Larry Fitzgerald

June 20, 2013 Fantasy

In 2008, Larry Fitzgerald had a fantastic regular season capped off by a historically great postseason; in the Super Bowl, he set the record for receiving yards in a season, including playoff games, with 1,977 yards. Of course, 2008 was decades ago in today’s era of what have you done for me lately. The table […]

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Fantasy Football: How to Project Receiving Yards (FBG)

June 16, 2013 Fantasy

Over at Footballguys.com, I look at a different method to project receiving yards. The number of receiving yards a player produces is the result of a large number of variables. Some of them, like the receiver’s ability, are pretty consistent from year to year. But other factors are less reliable, or less “sticky” from year […]

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Fantasy Football: How to Value a Player Who Will Miss Games (FBG)

June 2, 2013 Fantasy

Over at Footballguys.com, I explain my method of how to value a player that we know is going to a certain number of games. You can’t simply use the player’s projected number of fantasy points because that will underrate him. But if you go by his projected points per game average, he’ll be overrated. Using […]

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Fantasy Football: Regression to the Mean (FBG)

June 2, 2013 Fantasy

At Footballguys.com, I explain why fantasy football owners need to understand the concept of regression to the mean. Readers of this blog probably don’t need the long background, but you might enjoy some of the graphs at the end. For example, this is the distribution of yards per carry in Year N and yards per […]

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Fantasy Football: Which QB Stats are Most Repeatable? (FBG)

May 26, 2013 Fantasy

Over at Footballguys.com, I identified which quarterback statistics are repeatable and which ones are most likely to regress to the mean. I also ran a regression using touchdown length as my input and future touchdowns as my output. From 1990 to 2011, 188 different quarterbacks started at least 14 games and thrown 300+ passes in […]

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Fantasy Football: Yearly Trends in VBD (FBG)

May 19, 2013 Fantasy

Over at Footballguys.com, I analyzed how the fantasy value of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends have changed since 1990. The NFL is a very different beast than it was 23 years ago, but you might be surprised to see what that means for fantasy football. To measure value, I examined the VBD curves […]

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Examining Previous Eddie Lacy/Johnathan Franklin pairs

May 17, 2013 Draft

Green Bay didn’t use a first round pick on a running back, but the Packers did spend a second round pick on Alabama’s Eddie Lacy and a fourth round pick on UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin.  How much weight should we put on draft status when one team drafts two running backs just a couple of rounds […]

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Fantasy Football: A starting point for your running back projections (FBG)

May 5, 2013 Fantasy

As most of you know, I also write for Footballguys.com, what I consider to be the best place around for fantasy football information. If you’re interested in fantasy football or like reading about regression analysis, you can check out my article over at Footballguys on how to derive a better starting point for running back […]

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The predictive value of target data, part II

February 15, 2013 Fantasy

On Monday, I argued that target data has some predictive value. I wanted to update that post with a few observations. Wide Receiver Targets In the original post, I looked at year-to-year data for all players with at least 500 receiving yards in Year N and at least 8 games played for the same team […]

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Checkdowns: My very first football article

December 11, 2012 Checkdowns

Because I am an enormous narcissist, I wondered if I could find the very first article I ever wrote. And I did. While I doubt anyone visiting the site today wants to read an article by a first-time writer from the summer of 2002, if you do, here is my article discussing the fantasy relevance […]

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Best Games by Fantasy Defenses

December 11, 2012 Defense

Bill Barnwell wrote yesterday about the dominant fantasy performance by the Seahawks defense against Arizona on Sunday. The Seahawks scored two touchdowns, forced 8 turnovers, recorded three sacks, and pitched a shutout. That made me wonder: which defense produced the best fantasy in NFL history? I used Footballguys.com’s scoring system in the Footballguys Players Championship […]

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The best fantasy football players since 1950

August 24, 2012 Fantasy

Bill Simmons wrote about LaDainian Tomlinson last month and called him the best fantasy football player of all-time. “Greatest ever” debates are always subjective, but at least when it comes to fantasy football, we can get pretty close to declaring a definitive answer. Joe Bryant’s landmark “Value Base Drafting” system explained that the “value of […]

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Random Perspective On: The 2012 New England Patriots

August 20, 2012 Fantasy

New England has had one of the most creative and flexible offenses for the last decade. From 2002 to 2011, the Patriots offense was always good but it was rarely predictable. On paper, the Patriots arguably have their best and deepest set of skill position players in franchise history. But with the addition of Brandon […]

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Random Perspective On: The 2012 Oakland Raiders

August 15, 2012 Fantasy

Darren McFadden has missed games due to injury in each of his four seasons in the NFL. But he earns the label “injury prone” instead of “bust” thanks to his incredible production the past two years. In 2010 and 2011, McFadden totaled 2,432 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns in 20 games while averaging 5.3 […]

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