Over the last week, I’ve looked at the best fantasy players since 1970. Here are those links:

QB single-season
QB career
RB single-season
RB career
WR single-season
WR career
TE single-season

We conclude this series with a look at the top fantasy TEs, by career VBD, since 1970.

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

Over the last week, I’ve looked at the best fantasy players since 1970. Here are those links:

QB single-season
QB career
RB single-season
RB career
WR single-season
WR career

Today, we use the same methodology to analyze the top TE seasons in fantasy history (or, at least, since 1970). Todd Christensen has the best season by a fantasy tight end catching 92 passes for 1,247 yards with 12 TDs at a time when many tight ends were doing nothing. Cincinnati’s Dan Ross was the 12th-ranked TE in adjusted fantasy points (he ranked 10th overall and played in 16 games) and he had a 42-483-3 stat line. Suffice it to say, having Christensen on your team was like a cheat code: other than a rookie Eric Dickerson, the Raiders TE was the most valuable player in fantasy football in 1983.

The other names in the top five — Christensen has the 5th best season, too — are much less surprising: Kellen Winslow, Rob Gronkowski, and Tony Gonzalez.

The table below shows the 200 most dominant seasons by a tight end in fantasy football since 1970. [continue reading…]

Over the last week, I’ve looked at the best fantasy players since 1970. Here are those links:

QB single-season
QB career
RB single-season
RB career
WR single-season

Today, the WR career list. It will come as no surprise that Jerry Rice is, by far, the greatest fantasy football wide receiver. His dominance is unmatched. After him comes three contemporaries in Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison. You might be surprised to see Steve Largent come in at #5, who had 7 different seasons where he was a top-5 fantasy wide receiver. [continue reading…]

On Saturday, I looked at the top fantasy seasons by running backs since 1970. On Tuesday, I looked at the top fantasy seasons by quarterbacks, and today, we will do that for wide receivers. I am using the same scoring system throughout this series: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 5 points per passing TD, -2 points for each interception, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 0.5 points per reception.

In 1995, Jerry Rice had one of the best seasons in NFL history. He caught 122 passes for 1,848 yards and 15 touchdowns, and also rushed for 36 yards and a touchdown. That translates to 352.5 fantasy points.  Meanwhile WR30 had 148.7 adjusted fantasy points (using the same system described in the running backs article).  That translates to 203.8 fantasy points of VBD.  That’s probably the best fantasy season by any wide receiver, with perhaps one exception.

In 1982, during the 9-game strike-shortened season, Wes Chandler of the Chargers caught 49 passes for 1,032 yards and 9 TDs, and also rushed for 32 yards. That translates to 184.9 fantasy points, a remarkable amount given that he just played in 8 games. WR36 in 1982 averaged 6.5 fantasy points per game, which means over a full 9-game season Chandler would be worth 191.4 fantasy points. That year, WR30 had 68.5 fantasy points, giving Chandler 122.9 points of VBD. If we pro-rate that to a 16-game season, that is worth 218.4 points of VBD. [continue reading…]

Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in fantasy football history. That much is not open to debate. What separates Manning is not just his remarkable longevity, or his remarkable peak, but sustained level of very, very good play.

Here were Manning’s yearly fantasy ranks:

1998-9
1999-3
2000-3
2001-5
2002-4
2003-2
2004-2
2005-3
2006-1
2007-3
2008-6
2009-5
2010-3
2011-dnp
2012-4
2013-1
2014-3
2015-34

That’s a whopping 10 top-3 seasons, and 14 top-5 seasons, marks that will be difficult for any quarterback to ever match. Drew Brees and Tom Brady each have 7 top-3 seasons, while Aaron Rodgers has 6; Brees has 9 top-5 seasons, while Brady and Rodgers are at 7 and 6, respectively. That’s right: Peyton Manning has more top-5 fantasy seasons than Brady and Rodgers have combined.

The graph below shows each of the four superstar fantasy quarterbacks of our era shown in their primary team colors. This shows their VBD score by year — and remember, a player gets 0 VBD points if he was not a top-12 player in adjusted fantasy points (as described in yesterday’s post). [continue reading…]

On Saturday, I looked at the top fantasy seasons by a running back since 1970. Today, let’s look at quarterbacks.

As a reminder, I am using the following scoring system throughout this series: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 5 points per passing TD, -2 points for each interception, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 0.5 points per reception. Let’s use Dan Marino 1984 as an example. That season, Marino threw for 5,084 yards and 48 TDs, while throwing 17 interceptions. He finished with no rushing touchdowns and -7 rushing yards, for a total of 459.5 fantasy points.

Now, Peyton Manning in 2013 threw for 5,477 yards, with 55 TDs and just 10 interceptions. Like Marino, he wasn’t doing much on the ground, with -31 rushing yards and 1 TD. That’s a total of 531.8 fantasy points, which remains the most fantasy points any single player has every produced in a season of fantasy football.

But in 2013, Manning was probably not even the most valuable player in fantasy football that season, even if he scored the most points of any player ever. That’s because in fantasy football, your value is based on how you perform relative to your peers, the bedrock of VBD, which measures a player’s value relative to the worst starter. When calculating VBD scores, in this series, I used the 12th-ranked quarterback, 24th-ranked running back, 30th-ranked wide receiver, and 12th-ranked tight end. This assumes that the average league starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2.5 WRs, and 1 TE.

In 2013, the 12th-ranked QB (after adjusting for games played) had 339.8 fantasy points, so Manning finished with 192.0 points of VBD.  In 1984, the 12th-ranked quarterback had 252.2 fantasy points.  Therefore, Marino had 207.3 points of VBD, making it a more valuable season than Manning.

The table below shows the top 200 fantasy seasons by a quarterback since 1970.  For a full description of the methodology, including how VBD incorporates missed games and non-16 game NFL seasons, click here. [continue reading…]

As I have done before, over the next few days, I want to look at the top fantasy players throughout history.

I will be using the following scoring system throughout this series: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 5 points per passing TD, -2 points for each interception, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 0.5 points per reception. Let’s use LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 as an example. That year, he rushed for 1,815 yards and 28, caught 56 passes for 508 yards and 3 touchdowns, and even threw for 20 yards and 2 touchdowns.

That means Tomlinson scored 457.3 fantasy points that year. How valuable is that? In fantasy football, using principles of VBD, a player’s value is determined based on how much better he was than the worst starter. When calculating VBD scores, in this series, I used the 12th-ranked quarterback, 24th-ranked running back, 30th-ranked wide receiver, and 12th-ranked tight end. This assumes that the average league starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2.5 WRs, and 1 TE.

In 2006, the 24th-ranked running back scored 174.9 fantasy points. Therefore, the traditional methodology would say that Tomlinson produced 282.4 points of VBD in 2006, which is the most of any season since 1970. That is the standard, straightforward way to analyze fantasy production. However, that baseline is probably a bit low because some of the top 24 RBs missed games. Assuming a league where everyone plays two starting running backs, that makes RB30 the backup. So I then sorted all players by fantasy points per game, and added the FP/G from the 30th-best RB in that metric to each player’s fantasy total. Doing this raises the RB24 baseline to 190.2 fantasy points. That means Tomlinson would have 267.1 points of VBD, rather than 282.4.

There are two other adjustments I am making in this series, although neither impact Tomlinson’s 2006 season.

Let’s look at the second-most famous season that O.J. Simpson had in Buffalo. In 1975, Simpson rushed for 1,817 yards and 16 touchdowns, but what made it a historic season was that he also caught 28 passes for 426 yards and 7 touchdowns. That gave him 376.3 fantasy points, while the RB24 that year had just 130.9 fantasy points. However, using adjusted fantasy points, RB24 that year had 134.5 fantasy points. Therefore, Simpson had 241.8 points of VBD that season, but remember: in 1975, the league’s season lasted just 14 games. Therefore, for all non-16 game seasons, I multiplied each player’s VBD by 16 and divided that result by the number of team games that year. Therefore, Simpson gets an era-adjusted VBD score of 276.3, just a hair ahead of Tomlinson’s 2006 campaign. So by this methodology, it’s actually Simpson’s 1975 season that is the best in running back history.

Finally, let’s look at what Marshall Faulk did in 2001. The Rams legend had 1,382 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, while catching 83 passes for 765 yards and 9 TDs. That means Faulk scored 382.2 fantasy points. However, Faulk missed two games that season due to injury. It’s better to score 382.2 fantasy points in 14 games than in 16 games, because from a fantasy perspective, you can play someone else in those two games and get more points. If you owned Marshall Faulk in fantasy that year, you would have played your backup RB those two weeks, and that’s worth something. It would have really been worth something if you played Marshall Faulk’s backup Trung Canidate, who gained 358 yards and scored 3 touchdowns those two weeks. But for these purposes, I took the average FP/G for the average backup — after sorting by FP/G, the results for QB18, RB30, WR36, and TE18 — and added that to each player’s VBD score. For Faulk, this raises his fantasy points total from 382.2 to 400.2, because the average backup running back that year produced 9 points per game. Since RB24 (on an adjusted basis) that year had 170.3 fantasy points, this means Faulk gets 229.9 points of VBD [continue reading…]

If you don’t play fantasy football, you probably have no idea what this title means. Of course, it’s 2013, so if you don’t play fantasy football, you’re now the oddball. “PPR” stands for points per reception. About half of all fantasy leagues do not give any points for receptions, while the other half includes some sort of PPR format. And while the value of every player is dependent on each league’s scoring system, few players see their value fluctuate between scoring systems quite like Wes Welker. Or, at least, that’s how it seems. Is there a way to measure this effect?

First, a review of Welker’s numbers since he joined the Patriots:

Welker doesn’t get many touchdowns, and while he has respectable yardage totals, he is only exceptional when it comes to piling up receptions. Welker has 672 receptions over the last six seasons, easily the most in the NFL (in fact, it’s the most ever over any six-year stretch). Brandon Marshall (592) and Reggie Wayne (578) are the only two players even within 100 catches of Welker. Over that same time frame, he ranks 4th in receiving yards, but only tied for 17th in receiving touchdowns.

So how can we measure how much more valuable Welker is in PPR-leagues than non-PPR leagues? One way is to use VBD, which is a measure of how much value a player provided over the worst starter (or some other baseline). For example, Welker scored 173 fantasy points and ranked as WR12 in non-PPR leagues last season. If you are in a start-three wide receiver league, the worst starter would be WR36, who scored 111 fantasy points. That means Welker provided 62 points of VBD.
[continue reading…]