## College Football: The Best Passing Quarterbacks from 2012

The Chiefs play the Baylor game on an endless loop for the other 31 teams.

A few weeks ago, I discovered cfbstats.com, which has made available for download an incredible amount of college football statistics from the last eight seasons. Thanks to them, I plan to apply some of the same techniques I’ve used on NFL numbers over the years to college statistics. If you’re a fan of college football, you’re probably already reading talented writers like Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau, but hopefully I can bring something new to the table for you to enjoy.

There are many differences between college and professional football, but many of the same stats still matter. For quarterbacks, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is still the king of the basic stats1, and it is arguably even more important in college where teams play at varying different paces.

There’s a small problem, however, if you want to calculate ANY/A at the college level: the NCAA counts sacks as rush attempts and sack yards lost as negative rushing yards. I manually overrode2 that decision in my data set, so going forward, all rushing and passing data will include sack data in the preferred manner (keep this in mind when you compare the statistics I present to the “official” ones).

But calculating each quarterback’s ANY/A isn’t enough, as the varying strengths of schedule faced by college quarterbacks are too significant to ignore. So using the method described here, I came up with SOS-adjusted ANY/A for each quarterback in each game last year. This method involves an iterative process, so each quarterback’s performance is adjusted for the strength of the opposing defense, which has a rating that is adjusted for the quarterbacks it faced (including the quarterback in question), and so on, until the ratings converge. The usual caveats apply about defenses and quarterbacks that change in ability level over the course of the year.

Top Quarterbacks in 2012

After estimating sack data and adjusting each quarterback for strength of schedule, we now can rate the 2012 quarterbacks. The table below lists the 50 quarterbacks who added the most passing value over average last year. For each quarterback, I’ve listed his basic passing statistics, ANY/A, SOS, and — for reference only — I’ve included their rushing data, too. The table is sorted by the final column which shows the value added over average. How do we come up with that?

I gave each quarterback credit for his value over the average ANY/A (5.82) for all of major college football over the last 8 years. Let’s use Georgia’s Aaron Murray as an example. He averaged 3.88 ANY/A over average against a schedule that was 0.68 ANY/A tougher than average; that means he gets credit for being 4.56 ANY/A over average against a neutral schedule. Since he had 412 dropbacks last year (386 passes, 26 sacks), we multiply 4.56 by 412 to get his value added over average.

RankQuarterbackTeamAttPydTDINTSkSkydRshRshYdYPCRshTDANY/ASOSValue
1Aaron MurrayGeorgia386389336102616333952.939.70.681884
2Geno SmithWest Virginia513419842622146473136.728.630.031522
3A.J. McCarronAlabama314293330323174261786.719.580.541448
4Nick FlorenceBaylor4644309331318881216565.4108.91-0.211391
5Tyler BrayTennessee451361234127538192.508.070.71352
6Tajh BoydClemson42738963613302061567204.6108.370.31302
7Johnny ManzielTexas A&M43437062692112918015398.6218.110.521281
8David FalesSan Jose State45141933392519017513.108.94-0.631189
9Matt BarkleyUSC38732733615159510232.208.020.491083
10Tyler WilsonArkansas4013387211313102281093.907.530.831054
11Marcus MariotaOregon336267732618110888629.758.310.421028
12Teddy BridgewaterLouisville419371827827201472274.818.29-0.171028
13Ryan AplinArkansas State405332324415108895466.168.37-0.19995
14Landry JonesOklahoma555427230111412115507.480.08990
15Colby CameronLouisiana Tech52241473151054512314.548.44-0.8969
16Ryan NassibSyracuse472375326101691692283.327.650.04912
17Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)421334521716118351885.317.630.19877
18Matt ScottArizona499362027141690975966.266.680.79852
19E.J. ManuelFlorida State3873392231025177784876.247.83-0.01828
20Seth DoegeTexas Tech5414205391618132301916.327.4-0.16796
21Derek CarrFresno State584457939102920741206507.67-0.58784
22Bryn RennerNorth Carolina42233562871174501122.218.15-0.53781
23Tino SunseriPittsburgh393328821338291301003.317.62-0.1732
24David AshTexas3182699198971422125.128.09-0.12705
25Brett SmithWyoming330283227625204894525.168.17-0.38699
26Jordan RodgersVanderbilt319253915523175682463.627.120.72693
28Everett GolsonNotre Dame31824051261584793824.866.890.89653
29J.W. WalshOklahoma State1631564133317473076.6710.04-0.33648
30Taylor KellyArizona State3603040299321991017197.117.7-0.23645
31Brett HundleyUCLA47837402911502951106505.996.680.35641
32Collin KleinKansas State3042646169148619310115.2237.79-0.02622
33Devin GardnerMichigan12612191151175361764.978.321.09491
34Cody VazOregon State1851480113201508-26-3.306.91.3489
35Matt McGloinPenn State446327124521180381293.357.17-0.33477
36Tyler RussellMississippi State3942897241018120251154.526.820.03425
37Casey PachallTCU9794810133018532.9010.75-0.7423
38Brendon KayCincinnati1381298102951393579.229.22-0.66405
39Connor ShawSouth Carolina2281956177251681066035.737.170.22398
40Jordan LynchNorthern Illinois3943138256177927718946.8198.01-1.27378
41Chuckie KeetonUtah State4073373279171171127366.687.99-1.28377
42Bo WallaceMississippi36829942217301951135855.286.220.52368
43Clint ChelfOklahoma State197158815684823210907.67-0.22335
44Joe SouthwickBoise State3722730197943371644.407.23-0.54332
45Blake BortlesUCF399305925722142644276.787.36-0.8317
46Connor DietzAir Force1111131833181416874.959.94-1.38314
48Jonathan PerryUAB1221033611063261244.827.920.26311
49Corey RobinsonTroy390314112985813110.917.32-0.73309
50Logan KilgoreMiddle Tennessee3352571166766151389.417.46-0.78296

Tyler Bray had an outstanding 2012.

It’s not hard to see why Johnny Manziel won the Heisman: in addition to outstanding passing statistics against tough defenses, he also added approximately 1,539 rushing yards (remember, this excludes sack yardage) and 21 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry. Fellow freshman Marcus Mariota of Oregon was also outstanding — he averaged more ANY/A, even when adjusted for SOS — and was also deadly on the ground.

It’s also not hard to see why Geno Smith is expected to be the first quarterback selected in April’s draft. With Murray returning for his senior year, Smith has a good case over everyone else on statistics alone. Matt Barkley is an interesting case: he averaged 8.68 ANY/A against a SOS that was 0.35 ANY/A tougher than average, and added 1,462 yards of value in passing yards in 2011. But Barkley actually increased his NY/A in 2012 compared to 2011. Part of that was due to having a transcendent talent like Marqise Lee have a breakout year last season, but much of Barkley’s “down 2012” is due to the 15 interceptions he threw. The thing to remember is that interceptions are never a great way to judge a young quarterback: if you’re a fan of Barkley’s pro prospects, I think the numbers here tend to put him in a pretty good light. Much of the same can be said for Tyler Wilson, who saw his draft stock decline in 2012 despite him actually averaging more yards per pass last year than he did in 2011. Mike Glennon, who some think may sneak into the first round despite a poor 2012, doesn’t look any better under the advanced stats microscope: he averaged just 6.03 ANY/A against a schedule that was 0.15 ANY/A easier than average.

Perhaps the most interesting name on the table above is Tyler Bray. There are two things that make me very excited about Bray: he’s very young and he’s excellent at avoiding sacks. Bray was a true junior last year, and will be a 21-year-old rookie in the fall. Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman are the only recent players to start at that age in the NFL (Alex Smith and Drew Bledsoe did, too, and Mike Vick saw some spot duty): it’s extremely rare for a 21-year-old to play quarterback in the NFL. But that’s a great thing for Bray’s outlook, as Sean Forman always reminds me. But Bray’s sack rate is even more impressive, particularly in the SEC. Officially, he was sacked just 8 times on 459 dropbacks, a number that would make Peyton Manning or Drew Brees jealous. There’s a whole lot more to being a good quarterback in the NFL than being a good quarterback in college — Tim Tebow has struggled despite his success at Florida and NFL scouts didn’t just randomly place Glennon well above a player like Colby Cameron — but my guess is Bray is undervalued by draftniks who aren’t giving him credit for his outstanding sack rate at such a young age.

Top Pass Defenses

To create the rankings, we needed to rank both the quarterbacks and the defenses, so producing a list of the top defenses takes no extra work. Remember, a positive SOS in the table below means the defenses faced better-than-average quarterbacks. The table below lists all 124 defenses.

RankTeamPass AttPass YardTDINTSkANY/ASOSValue
1Florida4442498720303.251.151763
2Stanford55033491315574.260.891485
3LSU45726781518353.950.881353
4Oregon51529791925283.820.491351
5Alabama3972431818353.640.871314
6Arizona State39421832321513.070.181302
7South Carolina37925331815434.61.61187
8Florida State45322661311363.580.031108
9Fresno State38021731522382.99-0.49979
10Notre Dame43425971116333.990.24964
11Michigan State42522851014203.830.12937
12Boise State3762203418372.95-0.71890
13Oregon State47129191420284.230.16870
14USC43429512019454.630.46787
15Virginia Tech42125881713354.610.46757
16TCU43428412221294.620.4740
17Utah State47527081214423.92-0.47738
18Oklahoma42026841113244.910.69707
19Rutgers42227881318254.60.34697
20Kansas State47432351818315.10.57651
22Texas35127561615345.641.44621
23Vanderbilt4322493711314.19-0.3612
24Washington39425651717274.740.31582
25Georgia35124591313325.040.65547
26Mississippi42732052215385.811.07502
27BYU37823291212344.39-0.34449
28Ohio State45729221514304.79-0.14431
29Mississippi State41428831719185.140.29417
30Texas A&M48532591712315.60.58410
31Minnesota40424261513264.57-0.31404
32Western Kentucky39427272413325.630.74392
33Pittsburgh41425241515244.59-0.36380
34Oklahoma State54436402011255.940.78374
35Northern Illinois50931211115384.4-0.76360
36North Carolina State45532492016335.540.43344
37Northwestern49732571813285.420.25337
38Missouri4012897197216.671.58310
39Iowa State47534491814156.281.01267
40Wisconsin4642711188315.07-0.21266
41Cincinnati49832821316304.94-0.39258
42Bowling Green41124711110384.37-0.88256
43Georgia Tech44832172316285.840.47211
44San Jose State43928921815424.89-0.6159
45Tulsa48131951912515.04-0.53130
46Louisville38225002211225.620.12129
47Houston51034832519365.29-0.3599
48SMU54036162721245.41-0.2492
49North Carolina42429631516285.19-0.4963
50Penn State43027001510335.06-0.6744
51UCF48030481611275.29-0.4633
52Connecticut3812544156325.74033
53San Diego State44330622314335.61-0.1626
54Michigan3302203167225.75-0.14-25
55UCLA47935082715465.970.07-43
56Texas Tech3652493258196.530.59-49
57Kent State52138082723345.54-0.38-57
58Purdue44730412114225.7-0.24-60
59Kentucky3672757215267.031.02-76
60California45832633214256.460.46-85
61Buffalo34124991813345.51-0.57-101
62Clemson42731242313345.95-0.15-130
63Utah4012823188296.170.03-137
64Virginia3952501234176.480.32-140
65North Texas42030181911196.310.13-161
66Auburn3582675202227.491.2-182
67Hawai'i3082193209275.93-0.47-195
68Florida International43731452410246.510.24-207
69Maryland3682490244276.540.2-208
70Memphis4342928258296.21-0.08-220
71Arkansas State43229552113195.92-0.44-243
72Boston College4292908211066.490.11-247
73Ohio47429772613255.57-0.81-279
74Syracuse3933040239276.880.32-313
75Wake Forest41132012211256.80.24-325
76Navy3562799168187.020.34-326
77Baylor56942063618196.780.4-328
78Iowa35326341610136.65-0.08-333
79Tennessee44633902612176.970.43-333
80South Alabama36828402511246.860.12-364
81Washington State40831462615356.21-0.44-367
83Miami (Florida)42932221511136.65-0.09-409
84Arizona50038072512167.090.45-423
85Toledo50137812617236.46-0.2-445
86Florida Atlantic2862443208128.040.66-466
87Illinois2882324217227.350.01-470
88Louisiana-Monroe45735952916236.860.03-485
89Kansas40234302611118.171.16-493
90Louisiana-Lafayette47536852113276.69-0.14-511
91Middle Tennessee37930312212147.260.08-537
92South Florida3733023172257.720.55-538
93Miami (Ohio)35627191712156.5-0.86-573
94Texas State40830352614126.75-0.58-639
95Troy3723101266138.480.94-664
96UTEP3842950187207.06-0.45-682
97Arkansas4193430246317.50.15-691
98Eastern Michigan350254818777.15-0.67-714
99Southern Mississippi3382628235197.6-0.24-724
101Tulane38031162315186.98-0.71-747
102Rice37830582111286.9-0.76-749
103Massachusetts35128392613127.42-0.46-750
104Temple2972611214258.330.16-760
105UNLV3753096199207.42-0.42-798
106Marshall4263042309197.02-0.6-803
107East Carolina47535842810257.08-0.35-809
108Western Michigan3872889198256.69-1.12-823
109Army2542340197158.6-0.32-835
110Idaho4033302279148.010.11-868
111Indiana3562786237267.21-0.9-876
112Duke38934742911258.240.27-894
113Central Michigan42031292313186.57-1.33-911
114Air Force3432738198177.29-1.14-942
115Wyoming3722840266147.78-0.55-970
116UTSA35329272410167.7-0.75-973
117Akron3802867305167.99-0.31-983
118UAB3562935226197.97-0.49-990
119Ball State4273319287207.72-0.54-1090
120New Mexico41735003311218.08-0.28-1114
121West Virginia43540673810239.230.64-1268
122New Mexico State3813057284118.6-0.67-1355
124Louisiana Tech49540853510208.12-0.71-1553

Top Quarterback Games in 2012

To come up with the numbers, we had to perform the iterative analysis on the game level, so let’s now take a look at the best games from last year. Number one on the list probably won’t surprise anyone: it was Geno Smith’s ridiculous game against Baylor, where he threw for 656 yards and 8 touchdowns on 51 passes. The table below lists the best 500 games by a quarterback in 2012. It is sorted by the VALUE column, which gives quarterbacks credit for their value over the average ANY/A (5.82) in the same way as mentioned above. Using Smith’s game as an example, he averaged 15.6 ANY/A against Baylor, but that drops to 15.1 with the SOS adjustment. That means he was 9.3 ANY/A over average for 52 dropbacks (51 passes, one sack), which is why he is listed with 483 yards over average in that game. You can use the search box to search by player or team; for example, Johnny Manziel’s top two passing games were against Arkansas and Alabama.

RankQuarterbackTeamOppPass AttPass CompPass YardTDINTSkSkydANY/ASOSVALUE
1Geno SmithWest VirginiaBaylor5145656801315.6-0.6482
2Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)North Carolina State49265665111712.10.7348
3Matt BarkleyUSCOregon543548452168.92.5305
4David AshTexasMississippi2319326400017.71.1297
6Marcus MariotaOregonCalifornia3427377600.95.514.1-0.2282
7Keith WenningBall StateKent State4332445501612.3-0.1279
9Tyler BrayTennesseeTroy4729530500013.4-1.7276
10Aaron MurrayGeorgiaMississippi282138440534131.1274
11Tyler BrayTennesseeSouth Carolina43273684115.992.8265
12Marcus MariotaOregonUSC23203044031714.11.6258
13Nick FlorenceBaylorSMU30213414000140.2251
14Derek CarrFresno StateAir Force3228452400.96.616-2.6248
15Seth DoegeTexas TechTCU4230318703219.71.6247
16Matt ScottArizonaStanford6945491313176.82.4246
17Aaron MurrayGeorgiaKentucky3830427402.920.911.9-0.2241
18David AshTexasIowa State31253642000130.5241
19AJ McCarronAlabamaNotre Dame2820264400012.32.1239
20Johnny ManzielTexas A&MArkansas3829453300013.5-1.5234
21Colby CameronLouisiana TechTexas A&M584445050216.78.90.8232
23Tajh BoydClemsonWake Forest3827428502.934.212.1-0.7226
24Cody VazOregon StateBYU3220332302611.41.1225
25Logan KilgoreMiddle TennesseeNorth Texas3020349300013.6-0.4223
26Nick FlorenceBaylorTexas Tech3722396301711.8-0.1223
27J.W. WalshOklahoma StateLouisiana-Lafayette3021347400014.2-1222
28Taylor KellyArizona StateNavy1917268400018.3-0.9221
29Gary NovaRutgersArkansas35253975011213.5-1.5220
31Geno SmithWest VirginiaKansas2423407312.914.415.2-1.2219
32Tyler BrayTennesseeGeorgia State2018310400019.5-2.9215
33Derek CarrFresno StateSan Diego State554253652199.60.1214
34AJ McCarronAlabamaTennessee22173064021515.5-0.7214
35Tyler WilsonArkansasRutgers392041932179.61.6212
36Tajh BoydClemsonNorth Carolina State443042652009.90.7211
37David AshTexasTexas Tech1911264300017.1-0.1211
38Derek CarrFresno StateHawai'i2315304402.114.614.7-0.6209
39Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)Duke2515369301.98.315.7-2.2206
40Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)South Florida3221413302.619.913.1-1.4205
41Munchie LegauxCincinnatiVirginia Tech42193763117.88.91.7205
42Arsenio FavorSouthern MississippiUTEP2216374210016.8-1.7204
43EJ ManuelFlorida StateBoston College3427439420.95.412.1-0.6201
44Brett HundleyUCLAOregon State4227372102138.61.7200
45Seth DoegeTexas TechWest Virginia42324996116.813.2-2.8198
46Zac DysertMiami (Ohio)Akron49345166021512.2-2.5198
47Tyler BrayTennesseeMissouri54374044016.98.70.7198
48Aaron MurrayGeorgiaFlorida Atlantic1914342210017.7-1.6197
49Taylor KellyArizona StateUtah2619326302.515.113-0.3196
51David FalesSan Jose StateBowling Green433339520199.70.6195
52EJ ManuelFlorida StateDuke168282200020.1-2.2194
53Brett HundleyUCLAArizona State2919274414.717.88.62.9194
54Matt ScottArizonaWashington2214256410013.21.4193
55Matt BarkleyUSCHawai'i3823372400.910.211.3-0.6193
56Bryn RennerNorth CarolinaLouisville4126363510010.20.3193
57Zach MettenbergerLSUAlabama3524298102.921.47.83191
58Maxwell SmithKentuckyKent State3930354401610.7-0.1191
59Landry JonesOklahomaWest Virginia5138554610012.3-2.8191
60EJ ManuelFlorida StateClemson35273802011011.4-0.3190
62Tajh BoydClemsonLSU5036346205286.52.8189
63Corey RobinsonTroyArkansas State3526417101.813.811.5-0.5189
64Bo WallaceMississippiMississippi State22152945214131188
65Nick FlorenceBaylorWest Virginia47295815132012.3-2.8187
66Collin KleinKansas StateWest Virginia2119323300.98.217.1-2.8187
67Brendon KayCincinnatiDuke25173324021214.8-2.2185
68Seth DoegeTexas TechTexas State3225319500013.1-1.5184
69Casey PachallTCUGrambling99201300029-2.9182
70Johnny ManzielTexas A&MAlabama3124253204157.93181
71Tyler WilsonArkansasJacksonville State2719367300.84.815.2-2.9179
72Matt BarkleyUSCUtah3023303300012.1-0.3179
73J.W. WalshOklahoma StateIowa State4732415101390.5179
74Andrew ManleyNew Mexico StateSacramento State22143673042115.6-2.9179
75Tino SunseriPittsburghGardner-Webb2418344300.98.315.9-2.9178
76Ryan NassibSyracuseMissouri402638521009.50.7177
77Ryan NassibSyracuseConnecticut2014251200014.60.1176
78Teddy BridgewaterLouisvillePittsburgh2617304101.99.611.30.9176
79Tyler TettletonOhioLouisiana-Monroe2214331210014.8-1176
80Matt ScottArizonaUSC502736931007.71.6175
81Mike GlennonNorth Carolina StateClemson5329493514259.2-0.3175
82Philip NelsonMinnesotaPurdue2215246300013.9-0.1175
83Colby CameronLouisiana TechIllinois22152844021314.6-1.5175
84Connor ShawSouth CarolinaMissouri2120249200.92.713.10.7175
85Devin GardnerMichiganIowa2318314310014.3-0.9174
86Aaron MurrayGeorgiaVanderbilt2418250200.93.711.51.3174
88Ryan AplinArkansas StateOregon442930431007.32.5173
89Tino SunseriPittsburghVirginia Tech2819283311510.11.7172
90Jordan LynchNorthern IllinoisToledo3625407311311.3-0.8172
91Dalton WilliamsAkronMiami (Ohio)4232446410011.5-1.5172
92Jonathan PerryUABUCF28213072018.511.70.1172
94Ryan GriffinTulaneSMU3217302301410.80.2171
96Tyler WilsonArkansasLSU52313591112.96.22.8169
97Ryan NassibSyracuseLouisville2315246301612.50.3168
98Sean MannionOregon StateArizona45294333021310.2-0.8168
99Bo WallaceMississippiVanderbilt4931403102.921.67.71.3168
100Ryan NassibSyracuseNorthwestern664548241147.70.6166
101Ryan GriffinTulaneUAB4234466510012.4-2.6166
102Brett SmithWyomingUNLV33254123032512.4-2165
103Josh NunesStanfordArizona3421360201311.3-0.8165
104Everett GolsonNotre DameWake Forest3020346310012-0.7164
105AJ McCarronAlabamaAuburn2115216400014.1-0.5164
106J.W. WalshOklahoma StateTexas2718301212119.81.6163
108Teddy BridgewaterLouisvilleCincinnati41244162131490.5163
109Geno SmithWest VirginiaOklahoma352032042008.91.6162
110Teddy BridgewaterLouisvilleTemple2819324501.720.413.6-2.4161
113Wes LuntOklahoma StateTCU331832411009.11.6160
114Matthew McGloinPenn StateNavy2113231401513.9-0.9159
115Colby CameronLouisiana TechRice2419276401614-1.8158
116Landry JonesOklahomaIowa State453240542008.80.5158
117Bryn RennerNorth CarolinaMaryland3928305500010.4-0.5158
118Tajh BoydClemsonMaryland2618261300012.3-0.5156
119Tyler BrayTennesseeNorth Carolina State412733320138.80.7155
120Terrance OwensToledoBowling Green2820303101.910.610.40.6155
121Corey RobinsonTroyNavy2825322100012.2-0.9155
122Johnny ManzielTexas A&MSMU3620294401.67.29.80.2154
123Nick FlorenceBaylorTexas413035221387.71.6154
124Seth DoegeTexas TechNew Mexico3527340600.8712.7-2.5154
125Jordan RodgersVanderbiltFlorida3117237103326.63.7154
126Ryan AplinArkansas StateNorth Texas32253282011110.8-0.4153
127Teddy BridgewaterLouisvilleFlorida3220266215316.23.7152
128Nick FlorenceBaylorIowa State513142621008.30.5152
129Aaron MurrayGeorgiaGeorgia Tech1714215200.96.613.80.4152
130Clint ChelfOklahoma StateTexas Tech21112293016.712.9-0.1152
131Seth DoegeTexas TechTexas442632910187.61.6152
132David FalesSan Jose StateUtah State50384673012.71006.81.4152
133Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)Georgia Tech523143621008.30.4152
134Rakeem CatoMarshallTulsa44313913113.98.90.2151
135Chuckie KeetonUtah StateUNLV3421404411.95.812.1-2151
136Jordan LynchNorthern IllinoisBuffalo2013232200013.6-0.3150
137Johnny ManzielTexas A&MMissouri4432372310.98.88.40.7150
138Johnny ManzielTexas A&MAuburn2316260200.71.412.6-0.5149
139Cameron CoffmanIndianaMichigan State4833282301116.82.1149
140Tyler BrayTennesseeKentucky34202934011410.3-0.2149
141Robert MarvePurdueIndiana2920348410013.2-2.3148
142Colby CameronLouisiana TechIdaho3729400200011.9-2.1148
143Brett HundleyUCLAArizona2823288300.98.411.7-0.8148
144Tyler BenzEastern MichiganArmy3119369510013.7-3.1148
145Cameron CoffmanIndianaIowa3321315300.71.311.1-0.9147
146Ryan AplinArkansas StateMiddle Tennessee2119238300014.2-1.4147
147Landry JonesOklahomaTexas3721321210.99.58.11.6147
148Zach MettenbergerLSUMississippi State3019273201169.61147
149Geno SmithWest VirginiaTexas3525268404387.91.6146
150Casey PachallTCUKansas30243352011211.7-1.2146
151Connor ShawSouth CarolinaGeorgia106162201917.51.4145
152Ryan AplinArkansas StateAlcorn St.1312198300019.8-2.9144
153Kolton BrowningLouisiana-MonroeTulane2115253300.81.514.3-1.9144
154David FalesSan Jose StateNew Mexico State1812276410017.3-3.5144
156Sean MannionOregon StateCalifornia3424325410.98.710.1-0.2142
157Chuckie KeetonUtah StateSan Jose State352627330009.50.3141
158Sam RichardsonIowa StateKansas2723250400012.2-1.2141
159Bryn RennerNorth CarolinaVirginia3629315300.97.69.9-0.3140
160Marcus HendricksonNorth DakotaSan Diego State5027434414188.40.1140
161David FalesSan Jose StateBYU3425305312108.61.1140
162Johnny ManzielTexas A&MOklahoma342228721008.31.6138
163Brett SmithWyomingIdaho3523365502.927.211.5-2.1138
164Sawyer KollmorgenNorthern IowaWisconsin341826530129.20.5138
165Taylor KellyArizona StateWashington State2320246402.915.812-0.8138
166Landry JonesOklahomaOklahoma State71465003115.87.10.7138
167Landry JonesOklahomaKansas2920300300.913.611.6-1.2137
168Matt ScottArizonaOregon State5331403322126.61.7137
169Jordan LynchNorthern IllinoisArmy2718342410014-3.1136
170Aaron MurrayGeorgiaGeorgia Southern2818330401.813.513.3-2.9136
171Brett SmithWyomingNew Mexico32203744032612.2-2.5135
172Zach MettenbergerLSUWashington1812195100011.91.4135
173Jordan LynchNorthern IllinoisWestern Michigan2818274400012.6-2135
174Jake MedlockFlorida InternationalMiddle Tennessee38243802015.710.6-1.4134
175Aaron MurrayGeorgiaBuffalo2615258302.97.710.7-0.3134
176Teddy BridgewaterLouisvilleNorth Carolina282327930329100.1134
177Tino SunseriPittsburghTemple28203213011012.8-2.4134
178Shaun RutherfordTexas StateStephen F. Austin2621301300013.9-2.9134
179Tyler RussellMississippi StateLSU3826295111.914.66.42.8133
180Blake BortlesUCFEast Carolina2115269100013.8-1.6133
181Nick FlorenceBaylorKansas4226367300010.2-1.2133
182AJ McCarronAlabamaWestern Kentucky1914219405.745.610.30.9132
184Matthew McGloinPenn StatePurdue36223212019.79.5-0.1132
185Derek ThompsonNorth TexasLouisiana-Lafayette2817282200011.5-1131
186Sean MannionOregon StateUCLA3524379213209.3-0.1130
187Ryan KatzSan Diego StateNorth Dakota1811241300.95.715.6-2.9130
188Nick FlorenceBaylorUCLA13101882021014.5-0.1130
189Joe SouthwickBoise StateWashington38262642011.97.81.4129
191Jeff DriskelFloridaTennessee2014219200013-0.7128
193Mike GlennonNorth Carolina StateNorth Carolina5229467525277.90.1126
195Bryn RennerNorth CarolinaGeorgia Tech3524350213158.70.4126
196Aaron MurrayGeorgiaAlabama3318265112.914.66.33126
197Cody VazOregon StateArizona State3314267315476.22.9125
198Connor ShawSouth CarolinaTennessee3222356311.924.210.2-0.7125
199Devin GardnerMichiganNorthwestern29162862111.99.30.6124
200Johnny ManzielTexas A&MMississippi State3630311000.98.38.21124
201Everett GolsonNotre DameAlabama36212701121663124
202Casey PachallTCUVirginia3221305310010-0.3123
203Tyler TettletonOhioPenn State413132420118.60.1123
204Kolton BrowningLouisiana-MonroeNorth Texas3425324310.90.99.7-0.4123
205Taylor McHargueRiceSMU36242972015.890.2122
206Tyler Van TubbergenWestern MichiganCentral Michigan3323362411711.5-2.1122
208Marcus MariotaOregonWashington241519841119.31.4121
209Collin KleinKansas StateOklahoma State2216245000.86.310.50.7121
210Trevone BoykinTCUBaylor30222614021710.1-0.6120
211Colby CameronLouisiana TechHouston523435330007.90.2120
213James FranklinMissouriSyracuse231727920328.911.2-0.7120
214David FalesSan Jose StateUTSA2617279300013-2.6119
217Mike GlennonNorth Carolina StateMiami (Florida)4224440422159.4-0.9118
218Denard RobinsonMichiganIllinois117159200018.1-1.5118
219Geno SmithWest VirginiaMarshall3632323400.93.710.8-1.8118
220Shane CardenEast CarolinaUAB3523386201411.7-2.6118
221Matt BarkleyUSCArizona493149332278.9-0.8118
222Teddy BridgewaterLouisvilleSyracuse493642431009-0.7117
223Jordan RodgersVanderbiltMississippi3621279203177.71.1117
224Tajh BoydClemsonBoston College3828367311169.4-0.6117
225Teddy BridgewaterLouisvilleSouth Florida2521256200011.8-1.4117
226Kawaun JakesWestern KentuckyAustin Peay2318296410.9613.6-2.9116
227Matthew McGloinPenn StateIndiana32223954133011.4-2.3116
228Rakeem CatoMarshallMemphis4434341402168.8-0.5116
229EJ ManuelFlorida StateNorthern Illinois382629110008.20.7115
230Nick FlorenceBaylorOklahoma State392329610008.10.7115
231Logan KilgoreMiddle TennesseeFlorida Atlantic1410178200015.6-1.6115
232Shane CardenEast CarolinaMemphis3325308506489.2-0.5115
233Dylan ThompsonSouth CarolinaUAB105177201.18.518.8-2.6115
234Cody GreenTulsaTulane2616274200012.1-1.9114
235Corey RobinsonTroyTennessee463039310009-0.7112
236Teddy BridgewaterLouisvilleRutgers2820263212.217.981.6112
237Garrett GilbertSMUMemphis3525353104169.2-0.5112
238Marcus MariotaOregonArkansas State2218200300.65.111.3-0.5112
239Mike WegzynMassachusettsOhio512737340248.5-0.6111
240Terrance OwensToledoEastern Michigan3221401321211.2-2111
242Tino SunseriPittsburghConnecticut3419302203208.70.1110
243Tajh BoydClemsonDuke2316344531.63.212.4-2.2110
244Clint ChelfOklahoma StatePurdue2217197301.39.110.6-0.1109
245Zach MaynardCaliforniaUCLA3025295414209.1-0.1109
246Ryan NassibSyracuseSouth Florida402732840159.8-1.4109
247Michael RoccoVirginiaMiami (Florida)3729300401.412.89.6-0.9108
248Chuckie KeetonUtah StateTexas State2720316420011.3-1.5108
249Tyler RussellMississippi StateTroy2611244300011.7-1.7108
250David PilandHoustonNorth Texas413132120008.8-0.4107
251EJ ManuelFlorida StateSavannah State1311161300017-2.9107
252AJ McCarronAlabamaMississippi State2316208201.920.19.11107
253Tajh BoydClemsonFlorida State3620237311.811.16.42.3107
254Brendon KayCincinnatiConnecticut29192452016.89.30.1106
255Case McCoyTexasOklahoma85102200.21.117.21.6106
256Connor DietzAir ForceWyoming97141200020.1-2.5106
257Driphus JacksonRiceAir Force2115264201.48.713.2-2.6106
258Collin KleinKansas StateTexas Tech26192332016.79.9-0.1106
259Sean RenfreeDukeMemphis3726314410.94.69.1-0.5106
260Geno SmithWest VirginiaIowa State312223620128.60.5105
261Shane CardenEast CarolinaMarshall4738439302.913.79.7-1.8105
262Steele JantzIowa StateBaylor523638151008.4-0.6105
263Logan KilgoreMiddle TennesseeMemphis302225320009.8-0.5104
264Braxton MillerOhio StateCalifornia301624941009.5-0.2104
265David FalesSan Jose StateSan Diego State31212604116.890.1104
266Austin BrownUABEast Carolina3722319300010.2-1.6104
267Devin GardnerMichiganMinnesota1812234213239.80.9104
268Jeff TuelWashington StateStanford5942403219.862.94.92.4103
269Collin KleinKansas StateMiami (Florida)119210111115.3-0.9103
270Tyler BrayTennesseeFlorida4422257221104.43.7103
271Denard RobinsonMichiganMassachusetts24162913116.712-2.1103
272Everett GolsonNotre DameUSC26152170011.981.6103
273EJ ManuelFlorida StateVirginia Tech4225326315446.31.7102
274Tyler BenzEastern MichiganToledo2718301210.98.410.3-0.8101
275Collin KleinKansas StateNorth Texas2015230210011.3-0.4101
276Cody VazOregon StateNicholls State1714190300014.7-2.9101
277Anthony BooneDukeVirginia311821240009.4-0.3101
278Logan KilgoreMiddle TennesseeGeorgia Tech2317246211119.60.4101
279Graham WilbertFlorida AtlanticWestern Kentucky3623257202107.60.9101
280AJ McCarronAlabamaWestern Carolina66133100025.5-2.9101
281David AshTexasOklahoma State3730304311.917.57.70.7101
282Ryan PoliteUTSASan Jose State3220302212108.40.3100
283Sean RenfreeDukeMiami (Florida)59364324017.68.4-0.9100
286Tajh BoydClemsonBall State2319229300012.6-2.499
287Ryan AplinArkansas StateFlorida International2315223100010.6-0.499
288Matt ScottArizonaOklahoma State4128320204297.40.799
289Jared BarnettIowa StateTCU21121833116.78.71.699
290Trevone BoykinTCUOklahoma3117231102137.21.699
291Derek CarrFresno StateWeber State252029820112.512.5-2.998
292Jacob KaramMemphisTulane1814270211.814.412.7-1.998
293Sean RenfreeDukeFlorida International302129021009.5-0.497
294Ryan AplinArkansas StateLouisiana-Monroe342633421009.7-197
295Landry JonesOklahomaNotre Dame513535601215.75.62.197
296Aaron MurrayGeorgiaTennessee2620286211810.1-0.797
297David AshTexasBaylor311927410009.5-0.696
298Tajh BoydClemsonFurman2920310200012.1-2.996
299Brett SmithWyomingTexas281627622187.51.696
300Bryn RennerNorth CarolinaIdaho1914231310012.9-2.196
301Reilly O'TooleIllinoisCharleston So.3126333511.76.711.7-2.996
302Tajh BoydClemsonGeorgia Tech4126397222.915.67.50.495
303Zac DysertMiami (Ohio)Kent State5037455424307.7-0.195
306Johnny ManzielTexas A&MSam Houston State2014267310.76.213.3-2.995
307Jonathan WallaceAuburnTexas A&M96122202.111.613.50.894
308Tyler Van TubbergenWestern MichiganMassachusetts28232835111511.1-2.194
309AJ McCarronAlabamaLSU271416510156.42.894
310Geno SmithWest VirginiaOklahoma State5436364202.916.46.80.794
311Collin KleinKansas StateTexas148184111210.51.694
312Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)Virginia Tech281317020007.51.794
313Kolton BrowningLouisiana-MonroeLouisiana-Lafayette75124100.21.319.9-194
314Derrius VickOhioNorfolk State2014199401213.2-2.993
315Jeff DriskelFloridaSouth Carolina161193402.823.57.92.893
316Chase RettigBoston CollegeMiami (Florida)513244121008.5-0.992
317Munchie LegauxCincinnatiFordham2415262200012.6-2.992
318Geno SmithWest VirginiaMaryland4330338302218.4-0.592
319Jordan RodgersVanderbiltMassachusetts2117217200012.2-2.191
320AJ McCarronAlabamaArkansas1611189100013.1-1.591
321Teddy BridgewaterLouisvilleKentucky2119232001.64.810-0.291
322Taylor KellyArizona StateUCLA3525315415238.2-0.191
323Devin GardnerMichiganSouth Carolina3618214312.921.45.32.891
324Brendon KayCincinnatiTemple2113244202612.1-2.490
325Munchie LegauxCincinnatiPittsburgh28142052011280.989
326Aaron MurrayGeorgiaAuburn2418208301.915.49.7-0.589
327Taylor McHargueRiceMarshall3621314300.84.210-1.889
328Ryan NassibSyracuseStony Brook3522335300011.3-2.989
329Marcus MariotaOregonKansas State241216620148.11.389
330Johnny ManzielTexas A&MFlorida3023173002.915.54.83.789
331Alex ZordichBuffaloMorgan State2116237410013-2.988
332Dylan ThompsonSouth CarolinaMichigan107117200.8514-0.188
333Cody VazOregon StateStanford3823226102.920.55.52.488
334Ryan AplinArkansas StateTroy422836941009.6-1.787
336Everett GolsonNotre DameBoston College2416200200010-0.687
337Tyler RussellMississippi StateMiddle Tennessee2117191300.87.811.2-1.487
338Kevin HoganStanfordOregon State2922254322116.91.787
339Tyler RussellMississippi StateArkansas3219274402.811.39.8-1.587
340Nate SudfeldIndianaNorthwestern169157100.83.310.30.687
341Jordan RodgersVanderbiltGeorgia2313218002.818.47.71.487
342Marcus MariotaOregonTennessee Tech2821308410.84.211.7-2.986
343Blaine GautierLouisiana-LafayetteOklahoma State3116236100.75.97.90.786
344Tevin WashingtonGeorgia TechVirginia86125100.75.316.1-0.386
345Tyler RussellMississippi StateAuburn292022230179.2-0.586
346Travis WilsonUtahArizona402831120008.8-0.886
347Keith WenningBall StateOhio2016173200010.7-0.685
348Connor ShawSouth CarolinaMichigan2618224202.2138.9-0.185
349Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)Virginia251717930009.6-0.385
350Jake MedlockFlorida InternationalFlorida Atlantic2817264201510.3-1.685
351Taylor KellyArizona StateNorthern Arizona19152471017.613-2.985
352Brett SmithWyomingToledo2820339221.86.19.5-0.885
353Logan ThomasVirginia TechFlorida State3419298122165.92.384
354Dominique BlackmanIdahoBowling Green3730352113.928.27.30.684
355Jim JonesUTEPHouston2278100.31.742.60.284
356Ryan AplinArkansas StateSouth Alabama22172033021810.2-0.983
357AJ McCarronAlabamaMichigan2111199202219.5-0.183
358Seth DoegeTexas TechKansas State503533121286.11.383
359Kawaun JakesWestern KentuckyMiddle Tennessee301928331009.9-1.482
360Tevin WashingtonGeorgia TechDuke106102300016.2-2.282
362Austin BrownUABSoutheastern Louisiana2216266100.76.212.3-2.981
364Dalton WilliamsAkronKent State413031220216.67.8-0.181
365David AshTexasOregon State3321241211.912.66.41.781
366Chandler WhitmerConnecticutBuffalo2215227103149.3-0.381
367Kurt HessYoungstown StatePittsburgh231315420008.40.980
368Gary NovaRutgersLouisville281328422008.40.380
369Clint ChelfOklahoma StateKansas State2716233110.63.47.41.380
370Tyler BrayTennesseeAkron4327401410010.1-2.579
371J.W. WalshOklahoma StatePurdue7586200.42.916.6-0.179
372Tevin WashingtonGeorgia TechClemson149144100011.7-0.379
373Dylan ThompsonSouth CarolinaEast Carolina3721330302.815.79.4-1.679
374Colby CameronLouisiana TechUTSA3930348300010.5-2.678
375Bo WallaceMississippiAuburn2217226101.917.29.6-0.578
376Cameron CoffmanIndianaOhio State442227510006.70.978
377Joel StaveWisconsinMichigan State119127102.5199.52.178
378Phillip SimsVirginiaNorth Carolina State108115100.34.612.70.778
379Brett HundleyUCLAWashington State2118261314329.8-0.878
380Austin BrownUABTulsa3020337317687.70.278
381Connor HallidayWashington StateUCLA4326330514.527.27.5-0.178
383Logan KilgoreMiddle TennesseeSouth Alabama291623320009.4-0.977
384Bo WallaceMississippiLSU3515310232.821.85.12.877
385Trevor SiemianNorthwesternMichigan State2313165000.50.572.177
386Caleb TerBushPurdueOhio State301923021007.50.977
387Kawaun JakesWestern KentuckySouthern Mississippi1812172300.87.811.9-277
388Logan ThomasVirginia TechBoston College331624720008.7-0.676
390Bryn RennerNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech301719410196.61.776
391Anthony AlfordSouthern MississippiMemphis96110201.3913.6-0.576
392Tevin WashingtonGeorgia TechPresbyterian117161100.82.415.2-2.976
393Robert MarvePurdueIowa3325266200.92.88.9-0.975
394Trevor SiemianNorthwesternMichigan7687200.7715.7-0.175
395Logan KilgoreMiddle TennesseeWestern Kentucky171111820009.30.975
396Nick FlorenceBaylorLouisiana-Monroe392635142008.7-175
397Tino SunseriPittsburghRutgers3921227202186.11.674
398Shane CardenEast CarolinaHouston433130541212.77.30.274
399Jordan RodgersVanderbiltSouth Carolina2313214115315.62.874
400Nick LamaisonUTEPTulane1611157200012.3-1.974
401Derek ThompsonNorth TexasLSU21814321006.62.874
402Braxton MillerOhio StateIllinois2012226203.619.110.4-1.574
403Kain ColterNorthwesternIllinois119102300.72.813.6-1.574
404Everett GolsonNotre DameMichigan State321417810125.92.174
405Nick LamaisonUTEPRice228249203.32210.6-1.873
406Matthew McGloinPenn StateIowa382628920008.7-0.973
408Corbin BerkstresserMissouriTexas A&M382027621126.90.873
409Kolton BrowningLouisiana-MonroeWestern Kentucky412230842214.66.60.973
410Blaire SullivanUTEPHouston106105201.38.412.10.273
411Perry HillsMarylandVirginia2614237102128.8-0.373
412Driphus JacksonRiceSouthern Mississippi6492200.77.318.7-272
413Keith PriceWashingtonUtah3324277203248.1-0.372
414Chase RettigBoston CollegeGeorgia Tech3119264212107.50.472
415Spencer KeithKent StateRutgers211412120007.71.672
416Derek CarrFresno StateOregon4729234103164.82.572
417Cody GreenTulsaUCF342125231007.90.171
418Keenan ReynoldsNavyCentral Michigan1161343022013.4-2.171
419Chase RettigBoston CollegeNorthwestern442429110176.80.671
421Jordan LynchNorthern IllinoisMassachusetts1915191200.74.411.5-2.171
422Jonathan PerryUABSouth Carolina3417219005.529.44.82.871
423David FisherKent StateTowson3384100.43.329.5-2.971
424Connor ShawSouth CarolinaArkansas2214272212.61510.2-1.571
425Collin KleinKansas StateKansas147129200012.1-1.271
426Joe SouthwickBoise StateMiami (Ohio)312430421009.6-1.571
427Tyler TettletonOhioNew Mexico State2315257200.85.612.2-3.571
430Jake MedlockFlorida InternationalTroy2918316313199.8-1.771
431Conner PrestonSMUBaylor4376100024-0.671
432Joe SouthwickBoise StateNew Mexico3424311301810.4-2.570
433Landry JonesOklahomaTCU4022244210061.670
434Andrew MaxwellMichigan StateCentral Michigan3120275200010.2-2.170
435Cole GautscheNew MexicoWyoming158155200013-2.570
436Jordan RodgersVanderbiltTennessee261324521009.2-0.770
437Matt SchilzBowling GreenRhode Island2720281200.87.911.3-2.970
438Sean MannionOregon StateNicholls State2320231200011.8-2.970
439Dayne CristKansasTCU3919303013115.91.670
440Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)Notre Dame351820100005.72.170
442Ryan NassibSyracuseRutgers4225356123255.81.669
443Everett GolsonNotre DamePurdue312128910431.87.9-0.169
444Brett HundleyUCLAUSC3022234105396.11.669
446Jameill ShowersTexas A&MSam Houston State4286100.11.225.3-2.969
447Alex DennisonBuffaloOhio11551000.372.6-0.668
448Trey MillerNavyNotre Dame1914192112.917.16.92.168
449Roman RunnerIdahoLouisiana Tech1158100.10.771.4-368
450Nate SudfeldIndianaOhio State10677200011.70.968
451Richard BrehautUCLARice43101000.30.923.6-1.868
452Jon HaysUtahBYU2718196204226.91.167
453Bryn RennerNorth CarolinaElon2114236310012-2.967
454Dontae StricklandAir ForceNavy1154100074-0.967
455Deon AnthonyTroyWestern Kentucky169147101.713.18.70.967
456Colby CameronLouisiana TechTexas State453133730008.8-1.567
457Michael EubankArizona StateIllinois5569200.33.319.8-1.567
458Tevin WashingtonGeorgia TechMiami (Florida)83132001514.1-0.966
459Tino SunseriPittsburghLouisville3728287205307.10.366
460Carson MegerUTEPTulsa2316257113.319.78.10.266
461Seth DoegeTexas TechKansas59454763114.88.1-1.266
462Trent SteelmanArmyWake Forest4377100.70.720.6-0.766
463Joel StaveWisconsinIllinois2516254210010-1.566
464Everett GolsonNotre DameOklahoma2513177000.91.96.81.666
465Collin KleinKansas StateOklahoma211315400007.31.665
466Blake BortlesUCFSMU15101102000100.265
467Taylor KellyArizona StateIllinois2418249101.715.79.9-1.565
468Tyler RussellMississippi StateKentucky392326920147.6-0.265
469Deon AnthonyTroyTennessee128103200011.9-0.765
470Jordan HopgoodBowling GreenEastern Michigan11531000.369.4-264
471Marques IvoryJacksonville StateFlorida2514169011.83.64.53.764
472Ryan GriffinTulaneRice4928476422118.9-1.864
473Jeff TuelWashington StateOregon4462100.43.117.82.564
474Cody VazOregon StateWashington11797100.52101.464
475Sammy WatkinsClemsonFlorida State2152100.10.6342.364
476Chuckie KeetonUtah StateLouisiana Tech3420340201710.7-364
477Bryn RennerNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina State4730358112196.40.764
478Kawaun JakesWestern KentuckyLouisiana-Monroe3225308415278.5-163
479AJ McCarronAlabamaMississippi3022180201106.81.163
480Tyler WilsonArkansasSouth Carolina4126277223324.42.863
482Corbin BerkstresserMissouriVanderbilt309189100.88.36.51.363
483James MauroWestern KentuckyArkansas State128104200.61.311.3-0.562
484Andrew MaxwellMichigan StateOhio State4222269102106.30.962
485Ryan NassibSyracuseUSC4630322222105.51.662
486Wayne TimesFlorida InternationalWestern Kentucky1169000.31.252.90.962
487Landry JonesOklahomaTexas Tech402525920007.5-0.161
488Keenan ReynoldsNavyFlorida Atlantic158147201811.2-1.661
489Jacob KaramMemphisSouthern Mississippi1812162200011.2-261
490James VandenbergIowaMinnesota311819210006.80.961
491Alex CarderWestern MichiganEastern Illinois4029364510.90.910.2-2.961
494Keith PriceWashingtonPortland State1914181300.88.411.8-2.960
495Tyler RussellMississippi StateTennessee3723291201.917.18.1-0.760
496Nick LamaisonUTEPNew Mexico State3221300401.87.111-3.560
497Cody GreenTulsaSMU643641331116.60.260
498Blake BortlesUCFBall State3322272300010.1-2.460
499Ricky LloydSouthern MississippiWestern Kentucky5472100.65.315.50.959
500James LawsonWoffordSouth Carolina2171000.7425.12.859

If we do this for quarterbacks, we can do the opposite for defenses. The best game by a defense last year was LSU against Manziel, because they held Manzeil to only 2.1 ANY/A on 56 passes. Considering the SOS adjustment, and that was the top performance by a pass defense in 2012.3

RankDefenseOffenseQuarterbackPass AttPass CompPass YardTDINTSkSkydANY/ASOSVALUE
1LSUTexas A&MJohnny Manziel5629276033172.12.8385
2FloridaMissouriJames Franklin5124236044350.40.3313
3CaliforniaUCLABrett Hundley4731253246381.41.2298
4South CarolinaGeorgiaAaron Murray3111109012161.54.6295
5TexasOregon StateCody Vaz2815194029.774.30.82.4279
6NorthwesternMississippi StateTyler Russell2812106242.922.2-1.81268
7OregonArizonaMatt Scott4422210030.86.81.51.7267
8USCArizona StateTaylor Kelly3019174136.450.90.21.6263
9North Carolina StateBoston CollegeChase Rettig451612303210-0.5-0.7262
10Kansas StateWest VirginiaGeno Smith3221143123.722.91.42.8259
11VirginiaNorth Carolina StateMike Glennon4623197136340.90.1258
12VanderbiltTennesseeTyler Bray2911103121.410.60.72.9244
13UCLAHoustonDavid Piland602824905120.4-1.5241
14StanfordUSCMatt Barkley4120254024213.22.7240
15Notre DameMichiganDenard Robinson2413138042.920.2-2.30.7239
16Western KentuckyArkansas StateRyan Aplin4023204013.931.22.92.4232
17BaylorKansas StateCollin Klein502728623214.73.42228
18FloridaFlorida StateEJ Manuel3318182131.818.31.42224
19OklahomaTexas TechSeth Doege3622203031.815.81.41.4221
20GeorgiaTennesseeTyler Bray4524281231342.9220
21Utah StateIdahoPseudo QB231049032.727.4-4.4-1.7219
22OklahomaTexasDavid Ash2913113020.83.90.62.2218
23USCCaliforniaZach Maynard3318173028.754.40.70215
24HoustonUTEPNick Lamaison18876042.415.2-5.9-1.1215
26FloridaGeorgiaAaron Murray241215013001.54.6214
27Western KentuckyKentuckyMaxwell Smith60373322419.830.6212
28Washington StateOregonMarcus Mariota3221169122132.52.9211
29TCUWest VirginiaGeno Smith54322603117.94.92.8209
30TCUSMUGarrett Gilbert401519015420-0.8-1.9206
31Oregon StateArizona StateTaylor Kelly412215311292.81.6202
32Florida StateMiami (Florida)Stephen Morris4325223113.932.33.52201
33North TexasFlorida AtlanticGraham Wilbert3421142025220.80.1201
34FloridaTennesseeTyler Bray4422257221104.42.9197
35MississippiTulanePseudo QB412214503325-0.3-1.7197
37Michigan StateMinnesotaPhilip Nelson231061031.517.6-3.7-1.7193
38AlabamaMississippiBo Wallace2615123023.924.40.30.9193
39SMUFresno StateDerek Carr5433362126.9523.91.3192
40Texas A&MArkansasTyler Wilson592937312005.12.5190
41Boston CollegeMiami (Florida)Stephen Morris452820711183.82186
42HoustonTulaneRyan Griffin6636346243222.7-0.5184
43OregonKansas StateCollin Klein32171511218.72.22184
44OregonOregon StateSean Mannion493131114162.90.8184
45LSUSouth CarolinaConnor Shaw3419177223.929.12.61.6182
46Texas TechWest VirginiaGeno Smith552927510005.42.8181
47North CarolinaIdahoDominique Blackman35191090417.8-2.2-3180
48Kent StateRutgersGary Nova4625313262101.5-0.6179
49WashingtonOregon StateSean Mannion3418221141.561.50.8179
50TCUTexasDavid Ash2110104021.711.60.12.2178
52StanfordOregonMarcus Mariota3721207113114.32.9178
53Louisiana-MonroeTulanePseudo QB4421160132.929.30.3-1.7178
54MississippiTexas A&MJohnny Manziel2617191124402.72.8178
55South CarolinaClemsonTajh Boyd2411183126302.82.8177
56Boise StateBYURiley Nelson9419031.48.5-11.9-1175
57FloridaKentuckyPseudo QB217480300-4.1-1.7174
59South CarolinaArkansasTyler Wilson4126277223324.42.5173
60ConnecticutLouisvilleTeddy Bridgewater5330331214.135.15.12.3173
61MemphisTulaneRyan Griffin4325211132.922.51.6-0.5172
62Texas TechIowa StateSteele Jantz20107313424-2.8-1.5169
63South AlabamaNicholls StatePseudo QB27129602639-1-1.7169
64Washington StateOregon StateSean Mannion4225270133282.80.8169
65StanfordDukeSean Renfree4028200021.310.82.40.6167
66AlabamaMissouriCorbin Berkstresser2912126023190.5-0.1167
67AuburnClemsonTajh Boyd3424208113.920.44.32.8166
68TennesseeNorth Carolina StateMike Glennon462728814117.32.40.1165
69KansasTexasDavid Ash16863020.74.9-1.92.2165
70OhioLouisiana-MonroeKolton Browning3921219234.925.42.20.2165
71Arizona StateUSCMatt Barkley3320222332133.82.7164
72MississippiArkansasTyler Wilson4324297223254.82.5163
73Virginia TechRutgersGary Nova4017129013211.5-0.6162
74Florida StateNorthern IllinoisJordan Lynch4115176113163.10.9161
75Kent StateOhioTyler Tettleton3721232018802.40.1161
76Georgia TechUSCPseudo QB37141071300-0.2-1.7161
77South CarolinaMichiganDevin Gardner3618214312.921.45.33.6158
79Oregon StateWashington StateConnor Halliday20981031.69.7-2.9-1.5157
80Fresno StateWyomingBrett Smith3818158210.96.93.82157
81Boise StateUNLVNick Sherry31147102220-1.2-2.3155
82Fresno StateSan Diego StateRyan Katz2313160235351.10.8154
83RutgersCincinnatiBrendon Kay3117251023224.12.8152
84OklahomaBaylorNick Florence3312172003114.52.9152
85SMUTCUCasey Pachall2610107201.917.64.64.2151
86Arkansas StateMiddle TennesseeLogan Kilgore261511402000.90.9150
87Florida InternationalLouisvilleTeddy Bridgewater3619194220042.3148
88North CarolinaMiami (Florida)Stephen Morris2612155020.742.32148
89South CarolinaKentuckyJalen Whitlow2312114027.744.1-0.7-1.7148
90AlabamaGeorgiaAaron Murray3318265112.914.66.34.6148
91CaliforniaUSCMatt Barkley342219222004.22.7147
92TexasMississippiBo Wallace241317813421.61.50.9147
93Arizona StateArizonaMatt Scott391923033133.81.7147
94WashingtonUtahTravis Wilson2385501424-0.5-1145
95TennesseeAkronDalton Williams492722903141.8-1.1144
96BYUWashington StateJeff Tuel4530229023222.4-0.4144
97ArizonaWashingtonKeith Price5229256124312.8-0.5143
98Utah StateLouisiana TechColby Cameron603539612135.31.8143
99AlabamaTennesseeTyler Bray271318402003.52.9143
100MinnesotaUNLVNick Sherry351611613213-0.3-2.3143
101MissouriGeorgiaAaron Murray3522242312156.54.6142
103StanfordSan Jose StateDavid Fales3524217113184.62.5142
105Bowling GreenMassachusettsMike Wegzyn259230200-2.7-2.9140
106Western KentuckyFlorida InternationalJake Medlock3015187018.436.62.70.6140
107RutgersConnecticutChandler Whitmer32141910418.70.1-1.5139
108Virginia TechClemsonTajh Boyd2112160115483.32.8138
110KentuckyMissouriCorbin Berkstresser181071021.36.7-1.3-0.1137
111MinnesotaTexas TechSeth Doege45312711214.84.31.4137
112North CarolinaEast CarolinaShane Carden3017124007492-0.1136
114OregonArizona StateTaylor Kelly181093122.46.80.81.6136
115Miami (Florida)North CarolinaBryn Renner402521401004.21.8136
116Oklahoma StateTexas TechSeth Doege3624230122.616.33.71.4136
117Hawai'iSouth AlabamaRoss Metheny2411111024.648.8-1-2.1135
118San Jose StateNew Mexico StateAndrew Manley18746021.28.7-2.7-1.6135
119RutgersVirginia TechLogan Thomas3915193123.921.52.4-0.3134
120ClemsonLSUZach Mettenberger2314120116411.90.7134
121LouisvilleCincinnatiMunchie Legaux281315713141.30.1134
122South CarolinaUABJonathan Perry3417219005.529.44.82.4133
123ClemsonBall StateKeith Wenning291612802181-0.4133
124Iowa StateTulsaCody Green4923198222172.6-0.7132
125Ohio StateUCFBlake Bortles4125249231103.40.8132
126AlabamaArkansasPseudo QB181060022.914.4-2.1-1.7131
127WashingtonStanfordJosh Nunes3718170012132.90.4130
128Florida StateMurray StatePseudo QB3619117015.730.31-1.7130
129Iowa StateTCUTrevone Boykin4023270134292.90130
130Notre DameStanfordJosh Nunes251212502131.20.4130
131Texas A&MAlabamaAJ McCarron342130912246.54.3129
132Boston CollegeMainePseudo QB422013402001-1.7129
133North Carolina StateWake ForestTanner Price3318113014.131.41-1.3129
134ToledoWestern MichiganTyler Van Tubbergen4626232132112.2-0.9129
135Oklahoma StateSavannah StatePseudo QB251281020.913-0.8-1.7129
136LSUWashingtonKeith Price3617157014282.1-0.5129
137MemphisTennessee-MartinDerek Carr381921112003.71.3129
138Bowling GreenEastern MichiganTyler Benz2411114015440.9-0.5128
139KansasSouth Dakota StatePseudo QB3114175141.68.50.2-1.7128
140Boise StateWyomingBrett Smith3524216003.940.84.52128
141Hawai'iUNLVNick Sherry4317166133160.8-2.3127
142Arizona StateNavyKeenan Reynolds11514113.725.7-2.50.3127
143TCUVirginiaMichael Rocco2813126020.74.91.1-0.3127
144New MexicoTexas StatePseudo QB13530021.95.2-4.4-1.7126
145FloridaTexas A&MJohnny Manziel3023173002.915.54.82.8126
147Arkansas StateAlcorn St.Pseudo QB231239011.717-0.9-1.7125
148Virginia TechBoston CollegeChase Rettig3013129117391.8-0.7124
149Texas A&MOklahomaLandry Jones48352781116.951.7124
150IdahoUtah StateChuckie Keeton2517133221.9262.10.9123
151Middle TennesseeGeorgia TechTevin Washington2214146013.424.532123
152GeorgiaFloridaJeff Driskel2715191024.737.220.1123
153GeorgiaAlabamaAJ McCarron21131621131754.3123
154Virginia TechAustin PeayPseudo QB218620214-1.5-1.7123
156MichiganNotre DameEverett Golson83300200-7.52122
158OregonWashingtonKeith Price311914502151.6-0.5120
160MinnesotaSyracuseRyan Nassib3121228123164.21.9119
161PurdueEastern KentuckyPseudo QB2288502215-0.8-1.7119
162LSUClemsonTajh Boyd5036346205286.52.8119
163North CarolinaElonPseudo QB271399021.69.50-1.7118
164StanfordUCLABrett Hundley3820261117384.41.2118
166StanfordUCLABrett Hundley3123177012.910.73.61.2117
167OregonFresno StateDerek Carr4729234103164.81.3117
168Georgia TechFlorida StateEJ Manuel21161340131832117
169LouisvilleFloridaJeff Driskel2916175123332.30.1117
171Pseudo DefBaylorNick Florence4124312323146.12.9115
172PittsburghNotre DameEverett Golson4223227210.82.45.12113
173PittsburghSyracuseRyan Nassib3019185011.97.74.11.9113
174CincinnatiPittsburghTino Sunseri3724278116424.91.7112
175LSUArkansasTyler Wilson52313591112.96.22.5112
176MississippiPittsburghTino Sunseri3216185214214.41.7112
177StanfordOregon StateCody Vaz3823226102.920.55.52.4110
178PittsburghMississippiBo Wallace3222151320.99.53.40.9110
179SMUHoustonPseudo QB7213020.32.7-10.9-1.7110
180Fresno StateOregonMarcus Mariota2719166103345.12.9110
181TulsaHoustonDavid Piland3215148022.419.21.1-1.5109
182SMUStephen F. AustinPseudo QB38231930316.21.3-1.7109
183Arizona StateIllinoisPseudo QB10447022.514.6-4.6-1.7109
184PittsburghBuffaloAlex Zordich4123165012.912.72.4-0.9109
185Penn StateNavyPseudo QB13617011.720.3-3.3-1.7109
186Ohio StateMichiganDevin Gardner2011171114294.93.6109
187Florida StateSouth FloridaB.J. Daniels3317143012182.3-0.4109
188Miami (Florida)Virginia TechLogan Thomas371919902182.7-0.3108
189USCSyracuseRyan Nassib4630322222105.51.9107
190TCUKansas StateCollin Klein2112145013203.32107
192Boise StateFresno StateDerek Carr4329266113214.81.3106
193PittsburghSouth FloridaMatt Floyd261293032.818.6-2.1-4.2106
195East CarolinaUTEPNick Lamaison279143130.92.70.9-1.1106
196Northern IllinoisIowaJames Vandenberg3321129006571.8-1.3106
197MinnesotaMichigan StateAndrew Maxwell2913143122171.8-0.6106
198Kansas StateTCUTrevone Boykin3017164115.538.22.80105
199Oklahoma StateWest VirginiaGeno Smith5436364202.916.46.82.8105
200Notre DameOklahomaLandry Jones513535601215.75.61.7105
201Penn StatePurdueRobert Marve3922138000.68.23.30.1104
202Arizona StateMissouriCorbin Berkstresser412119801210.73.3-0.1104
203Fresno StateTulsaCody Green371320213002.4-0.7104
204MississippiAlabamaAJ McCarron3022180201106.84.3104
205LSUAlabamaAJ McCarron271416510156.44.3103
206NavySan Jose StateDavid Fales3429276012.827.45.52.5103
207Notre DamePittsburghTino Sunseri2919164105314.51.7103
208VirginiaVirginia TechLogan Thomas3818129103263-0.3102
209FloridaSouth CarolinaConnor Shaw2097200211.52.81.6102
210Western KentuckyAustin PeayPseudo QB10211011.819.1-4.5-1.7102
211UCLAArizonaMatt Scott2515124003.314.23.91.7102
212Oregon StateBYURiley Nelson5128305134273-1102
214Notre DameBYURiley Nelson3623177224362.3-1102
215OhioNorfolk StatePseudo QB17863020.52.1-1.7-1.7101
216Bowling GreenOhioTyler Tettleton3421145104403.30.1101
218CincinnatiConnecticutPseudo QB16773021.412.3-1.7-1.7101
219MemphisUABAustin Brown4123187115.937.12.7-1100
220San Diego StateAir ForceConnor Dietz11763011.79.30.72.7100
221San Jose StateTexas StateShaun Rutherford261413002241.3-1100
222Notre DamePurdueCaleb TerBush19879122.111.3-0.1-1.2100
223MissouriArizona StateTaylor Kelly2314178122.6173.61.6100
224Arizona StateCaliforniaZach Maynard289126106462.9098
225Notre DameMichigan StateAndrew Maxwell4523187004303.2-0.698
226NavyVirginia MilitaryPseudo QB16978021.513.9-1.5-1.798
227Ohio StateMiami (Ohio)Zac Dysert533130312227.53.7-0.398
228Kent StateBuffaloAlex Zordich22492121.72.50.8-0.997
229Mississippi StateArkansasTyler Wilson2923225221.913.55.22.597
230BaylorOklahoma StateClint Chelf513033322005.51.697
232UtahWashington StateJeff Tuel452323211531.73.5-0.496
233Texas A&MLSUZach Mettenberger291197102123.40.796
234CincinnatiMiami (Ohio)Zac Dysert4925303232.818.53.7-0.396
235Georgia TechPresbyterianPseudo QB281183011.611.20.9-1.795
236Utah StateSan Jose StateDavid Fales50384673012.71006.82.595
237Mississippi StateNorthwesternKain Colter169760200-0.9-0.894
238FloridaLSUZach Mettenberger2511158014193.20.794
239Pseudo DefSouth CarolinaConnor Shaw2016122113.815.23.41.694
240AlabamaMississippi StateTyler Russell3015169010.86.73.8194
241Mississippi StateAuburnKiehl Frazier221312503212-0.9-2.894
242VanderbiltSouth CarolinaConnor Shaw11767012.217.60.31.693
243Florida StateGeorgia TechTevin Washington14476010.971.6293
244UABSoutheastern LouisianaPseudo QB231078012.919.20.5-1.793
245IllinoisWestern MichiganAlex Carder4326239131.817.42.4-1.492
247PurdueEastern MichiganAlex Gillett159660318.3-4.8-4.992
248Florida AtlanticWestern KentuckyKawaun Jakes261416923152.60.192
249TCUGramblingPseudo QB9314011.915.4-4.2-1.792
250Oklahoma StateTCUTrevone Boykin4021185111.88.23.6091
251North Carolina StateFlorida StateEJ Manuel2917218113.927.15291
252AlabamaWestern KentuckyKawaun Jakes3120178013223.30.191
253Kent StateNorthern IllinoisJordan Lynch3419212114224.30.991
254MarshallUABAustin Brown3420197233152.4-191
256UCFMarshallRakeem Cato6235298204374.60.191
257Kansas StateBaylorNick Florence322023822005.92.990
258Bowling GreenMiami (Ohio)Zac Dysert3117198124.820.73-0.390
259Arizona StateWashington StateJeff Tuel16867012.311.80.6-0.489
260Mississippi StateMiddle TennesseeLogan Kilgore2516159012.320.33.40.989
261TulsaFresno StateDerek Carr4426231102135.21.388
262Pseudo DefMiami (Florida)Stephen Morris352021111005.3288
263LSUAuburnKiehl Frazier22139702417-0.4-2.888
264Iowa StateTexas TechSeth Doege4630331322.934.35.51.488
265South AlabamaTroyCorey Robinson2415223030.911.63.10.888
266Michigan StateIowaJames Vandenberg361913401182.2-1.388
268AlabamaAuburnPseudo QB14571021.92.8-1.4-1.787
269OklahomaOklahoma StateClint Chelf3719253112.917.55.31.687
270Florida StateClemsonTajh Boyd3620237311.811.16.42.887
271Pseudo DefMarylandPerry Hills241614503000.4-1.887
272Southern MississippiLouisvilleTeddy Bridgewater13985112.818.62.62.387
273Georgia TechVirginiaMichael Rocco2515143121.513.62.2-0.386
274Penn StateIowaJames Vandenberg3617189124232.4-1.386
275San Diego StateBoise StateJoe Southwick312016411244.10.986
276Middle TennesseeTroyCorey Robinson3622183110.81.54.30.886
277UTEPEast CarolinaShane Carden402825813003.6-0.186
278WisconsinIndianaCameron Coffman462523322004085
279Boise StateMichigan StateAndrew Maxwell382224803003-0.685
280BYUUtah StateChuckie Keeton3822202002.912.74.60.985
281Georgia TechDukeSean Renfree3624198214204.30.685
283StanfordWashingtonKeith Price3719177113243.2-0.585
284Virginia TechBowling GreenMatt Schilz25987011.22.41.5-1.184
285OregonStanfordKevin Hogan362521111154.91.484
286Air ForceNew MexicoB.R. Holbrook10529011.820.9-3.1-1.884
287Michigan StateBoise StateJoe Southwick3115169010040.983
288Northern IllinoisEastern MichiganTyler Benz221096112.823.81.9-0.583
289IowaMinnesotaMax Shortell3320197232152.5-183
291HoustonTulsaCody Green31171300112.92.6-0.783
292Pseudo DefTexas TechSeth Doege3423199110.75.14.91.483
293LSUFloridaJeff Driskel12861005431.10.182
294MissouriVanderbiltJordan Rodgers2414182011.816.64.7282
295Ohio StateIllinoisNathan Scheelhaase341996012210.8-2.782
296FloridaBowling GreenMatt Schilz4924204010.94.73.1-1.182
297Pseudo DefTexas A&MPseudo QB1029010.72-3.6-1.782
298NorthwesternIndianaCameron Coffman2313109011.24.72.5082
299West VirginiaSyracuseRyan Nassib2412134211.911.54.51.982
300VanderbiltNorth Carolina StateMike Glennon5335383133204.40.181
1. For the uninitiated, ANY/A is calculated by starting with passing yards per attempt, adding 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracting 45 yards for each interception, and subtracting sack yards lost from the numerator and adding sacks to the denominator. []
2. Unfortunately, some estimation was involved. The player game logs at cfbstats do not identify quarterback sacks, but the team game logs do. So for each quarterback, we know how many passes he threw in the game and how many times his team was sacked. For quarterbacks who threw 100% of their team’s passes in a game, this is easy. However, for quarterbacks who threw fewer than 100% of their team’s passes, they were assigned a pro-rata number of their team’s sacks. []
3. In the defense table, you might note the existence of someone called a Pseudo QB. The explanation is a little technical, hence leaving it to the footnotes. To adjusted for strength of schedule, you need each quarterback to play a certain number of teams and throw a certain number of attempts, or else the formula can get out of whack. I set the cut-off at 100 attempts, so quarterbacks that threw fewer than that in a season are all lumped together under the name “Pseudo QB.” []
• George

Interesting one for me in the top QB’s of 2012 – Braxton Miller didn’t make the top 50 (despite Ohio State going 12-0). I think it goes to prove in some respects (I know they had a weak schedule this year) that the right system can make up for minor deficiencies in a QB (e.g. a similar system effectively masked some of Tebow’s issues when he was at Florida that have been exposed since he was in the NFL). I know the table is ranking passing value over average and Braxton contributed on the ground, but so did Manziel, Smith and Mariota who look much more rounded prospects. Incidentally do you think Smith’s numbers are inflated at all, effectively by their weak schedule, style of offense and the fact that at points playing with no RB (e.g. which led them eventually to sticking Tavon Austin in the backfield) so they had no choice but to throw?

• Chase Stuart

Braxton Miller was actually 61st, on account of a terrible sack rate. He also only had 281 dropbacks. More on him tomorrow.

I think Smith’s gross numbers are inflated, but his rate numbers are still excellent. What specifically did you mean?

• George

Thanks for the reply. Your post from today kind of explained what I was trying to get at – I haven’t dug through the season but Smith’s value over numbers went up in 2010 and 2011 under Dana Holgorsen and his style of play compared to his 2009 season (the flipside you could argue was and there is evidence to this – is that he was more experienced and trained harder for the current season – other random thought is there an N-1 style regression opportunity here to define weights given the available data?).

All I was getting at was Smith’s current season – he was at his most experienced, in a system that benefited his talents (e.g. Brandon Weeden also ranked highly in his years in Holgorsen’s style of offense) up against weak Big 12 D’s (e.g. the Baylor game where coverage was questionable on both sides) – over-stating his potential ability (e.g. is he genuinely top 5 – top 10 talent)?

• Chase Stuart

I certainly think it’s a question. Mike Leach made Tim Couch into the #1 overall pick, and Holgo is a Leach disciple. It’s certainly an issue; I mean he’s not Case Keenum but everyone in the world knew Smith’s numbers were about to go crazy once he Holgorsen went to WVA.

• Chase can you explain again why it is only +20 yds for TDs and -45 yds for INTs? Doesn’t that just feel wrong? I have been a reader of yours for years but I never understood why a TD is ‘only’ worth 20 yards. Yes, I know about the study showing it was 19ish yards. I felt it was a bit low but if the study said 19ish yards then ok. But when you compare the two (TD vs INT) my brain is saying, “An INT is 2.5 times more important than a TD.” I must be missing something. I must be misinterpreting how the 45 and the 20 relate to each other.

• Chase Stuart

Well Wintermute, then you know that -45 comes from The Hidden Game of Football. But think of this:

Remember my post where I saw a turnover was worth 4 points, or 60 yards? Well, in that light, doesn’t 45 yards feel about right? Some interceptions are not that costly — third down ones in particular — but then again, some interceptions also bring with them return yards.

(I recognize that this isn’t a “proof” but might help make you think about it a little bit differently.)

• Quinton

Not a huge deal but Blaine Gabbert was 21 when he started his rookie year.

Football doesn’t have an age development curve as well established as baseball but it’s something I try to keep in mind. As a Jags fan, to cope with their new management team putting out story after story indicating Gabbert may be the best option in 2013, I remind myself of how ridiculously young he was/is, and then try to convince myself that matters

/crying

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• Rich

Was Dysert not included, or just not in the top 50?

• Chase Stuart

Dysert had 36 sacks last year. He also, as you might imagine, had an easy SOS (-0.72). So Dysert’s ANY/A of 6.2 doesn’t get him very far.

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