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College Football: The Best Passing Quarterbacks since 2005

by Chase Stuart on February 27, 2013

in College, Draft, SRS, Statgeekery

Yesterday, I ranked every quarterback in college football last season. Today, I’ll do the same for every quarterback since 2005. If you read yesterday’s article, you can skip the next three paragraphs, which explain the system I used.

These guys were great in college.

These guys were great in college.

I start by calculating each quarterback’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, done by starting with passing yards per attempt, adding 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracting 45 yards for each interception, and subtracting sack yards lost from the numerator and adding sacks to the denominator. Because the NCAA treats sack stats as rushing data, and because the game logs I have (courtesy of cfbstats.com) only show separate sack data on the team level, some estimation is involved in coming up with player sacks. Each quarterback is assigned X% of the sacks his team’s offense suffered in each game, with X equaling the number of pass attempts thrown by that player divided by his team’s total number of pass attempts.

Once I have calculate the ANY/A for each player, I then adjusted their ratings for strength of schedule. This involves an iterative process I described here and is virtually identical to how I calculate SRS ratings in college football on the team level. You adjust each quarterback’s ANY/A (weighted by number of pass attempts) for the qualify of the defense, which is adjusted by the quality of the quarterbacks it faced, which is adjusted by the quality of all the defenses all of those quarterbacks faced, and so on. After awhile, the ratings converge, and you come up with final, SOS-adjusted ANY/A ratings.

At this point, we can rank all the quarterbacks (and the defenses) based on ANY/A, but some credit needs to be given for those quarterbacks who shoulder larger workloads. In Georgia Tech’s offense, it’s pretty easy to rack up impressive ANY/A totals because just about every pass attempt comes against an unprepared defense. To adjust for this, I multiplied each quarterback’s number of attempts (including estimated sacks) by the difference between his ANY/A and 5.82, which is the average ANY/A over the eight-year period.

So, which quarterbacks were best from 2005 to 2012?

Rk
Year
Player
College
Att
PYd
TD
INT
Sk
Skyd
Rsh
RshYd
YPC
TD
ANY/A
SOS
Value
12008Sam BradfordOklahoma48347205081186311334.4510.671.22991
22011Case KeenumHouston603563148516148411834.4310.050.062656
32006Colt BrennanHawai'i5595549581225126614928.1510.35-0.422400
42011Robert Griffin IIIBaylor4024293376281611518605.71010.710.352253
52007Tim TebowFlorida350328632613781979734.9239.861.311943
62006John BeckBYU4173885328169634882.669.40.91943
72008Graham HarrellTexas Tech62651114591311028953.368.610.161885
82012Aaron MurrayGeorgia386389336102616333952.939.70.681884
92008Colt McCoyTexas4333859348251691117306.6118.761.171882
102010Kellen MooreBoise State383384535686211302.8110.76-0.221850
112009Ryan MallettArkansas403362430725168331394.228.751.131737
122005Brady QuinnNotre Dame450391932722144482344.918.690.781724
132011Russell WilsonWisconsin309317533424159554979610.510.471718
142007Brian BrohmLouisville4734024301225158321123.537.891.261655
152010Andrew LuckStanford37233323286484950110.239.430.731642
162008Mark SanchezUSC3663207341017111351273.638.691.381628
172005Matt LeinartUSC43138152881486371223.368.830.591603
182008Tim TebowFlorida298274630415971617704.8129.81.031571
192011Brandon WeedenOklahoma State5644727371311966-6-118.320.221569
202010Ryan MallettArkansas41138693212261461872448.750.61543
212006Andre' WoodsonKentucky419351531736252341153.417.831.341528
222012Geno SmithWest Virginia513419842622146473136.728.630.031522
232008Matthew StaffordGeorgia3833459251016122391624.118.51.11506
242008Case KeenumHouston5875013441124181524027.878.53-0.311467
252011Matt BarkleyUSC446352839785120653.228.680.351462
262008Chase DanielMissouri528433539181683533646.817.770.721449
272012A.J. McCarronAlabama314293330323174261786.719.580.541448
282008David JohnsonTulsa4004059461824111682974.339.58-0.351447
292009Jimmy ClausenNotre Dame42537222842115538601.638.850.21442
302008Zac RobinsonOklahoma State3143064251015801316424.989.230.961439
312011Geno SmithWest Virginia526438531726195301625.328.150.261431
322011Andrew LuckStanford404351737101176362266.228.990.231412
332006JaMarcus RussellLSU342312928817132352747.818.910.841412
342008Joe GanzNebraska4193565251121125713835.457.841.181406
352012Nick FlorenceBaylor4644309331318881216565.4108.91-0.211391
362011Kellen MooreBoise State439380043974313-23-1.809.44-0.511389
372010Landry JonesOklahoma617471838122220429762.617.410.561378
382010Cam NewtonAuburn28028543072214324216166.7209.930.411364
392012Tyler BrayTennessee451361234127538192.508.070.71352
402011Tyler WilsonArkansas438363824626182341795.347.890.821346
412007Graham HarrellTexas Tech713570548141713421432.148.08-0.431341
422006John David BootyUSC4353310299159718442.517.521.21310
432006Brian BrohmLouisville314304916516101301464.909.210.561307
442005Drew OlsonUCLA37831983462512825803.218.640.421306
452005Brian BrohmLouisville30128831951712524893.749.150.761305
462012Tajh BoydClemson42738963613302061567204.6108.370.31302
472007Sam BradfordOklahoma3413121368129119985.109.61-0.111298
482011Darron ThomasOregon33927613371080462866.338.660.861295
492005Vince YoungTexas325303626101410014111508.1128.880.741287
502012Johnny ManzielTexas A&M43437062692112918015398.6218.110.521281
512010Brandon WeedenOklahoma State5114277341391138455.908.190.071270
522008Chase ClementRice4904119447272111279047.1128.66-0.431248
532009Kellen MooreBoise State432353639353120221.119.5-0.891219
542007Paul SmithTulsa5445065471929208763274.3138.62-0.691212
552009Tim TebowFlorida31428952152613219110425.4148.710.661205
562009Case KeenumHouston6975632441517130432886.747.99-0.491205
572012David FalesSan Jose State45141933392519017513.108.94-0.631189
582006Erik AingeTennessee3482989199131031310.117.921.141171
592006Brady QuinnNotre Dame467342637730206522775.327.340.781144
602008Kellen MooreBoise State40535022510118027501.818.350.211140
612005D.J. ShockleyGeorgia31025882451880604026.748.430.831127
622007Erik AingeTennessee519352231104441340.306.980.991124
632005Troy SmithOhio State237228216415941217055.8119.251.011119
642006Kevin KolbHouston432380930433216783704.748.64-0.421115
652008Max HallBYU4773957351418103482134.447.930.131107
662010Greg McElroyAlabama313298720530156301444.818.770.271105
672012Matt BarkleyUSC38732733615159510232.208.020.491083
682005Bryan CupitoMinnesota297253019942920592.908.231.181080
692006Graham HarrellTexas Tech617455538111712115553.727.410.111080
702007Chase DanielMissouri5644306331120164884284.947.370.291075
712011A.J. McCarronAlabama3282634165158515634.127.711.191060
722012Tyler WilsonArkansas4013387211313102281093.907.530.831054
732012Marcus MariotaOregon336267732618110888629.758.310.421028
742012Teddy BridgewaterLouisville419371827827201472274.818.29-0.171028
752005Drew TateIowa352282822715101291424.817.780.81012
762007Ben MaukCincinnati386312131919130815066.337.910.41010
772010Darron ThomasOregon3602863309848855346.358.170.381007
782010Andy DaltonTCU3162857276857784926.369.47-0.551006
792011Landry JonesOklahoma56244632915117921552.627.490.081000
802009Andrew LuckStanford2882575134738553927.128.880.331000
812006Troy SmithOhio State311254230618138543426.318.320.54998
822011Aaron MurrayGeorgia4033149351432178552895.226.991.11995
832012Ryan AplinArkansas State405332324415108895466.168.37-0.19995
842012Landry JonesOklahoma5554272301114121011-41.707.480.08990
852005Brett BasanezNorthwestern497362221810771035004.977.110.64977
862009Max HallBYU409356033142112751202428.050.04976
872009Greg McElroyAlabama325250817419103351865.317.461.18971
882008Daryll ClarkPenn State32125971961188683705.5107.880.85970
892012Colby CameronLouisiana Tech52241473151054512314.548.44-0.8969
902005Rudy CarpenterArizona State22822731722213220123619.580.07957
912009Andy DaltonTCU323275623812751045875.638.30.35949
922010Bryant MonizHawai'i5555040391535218463206.948.35-0.94941
932010Ricky StanziIowa345300425620137281314.628.49-0.12933
942008Mike TeelRutgers39634182513149910262.727.880.2930
952011Nick FolesArizona560432928142217721743.507.020.4929
962006Chris LeakFlorida3652942231323159541893.536.851.33919
972005Cody HodgesTexas Tech5314238311233262764535.937.20.25916
982009Tyrod TaylorVirginia Tech243231113530176765467.257.961.21915
992012Ryan NassibSyracuse472375326101691692283.327.650.04912
1002011Brock OsweilerArizona State5164036261328158552484.537.010.48912
1012006Tyler PalkoPittsburgh322287125922156442335.328.170.29910
1022006Nate LongshoreCalifornia37730212413107118191.137.340.82909
1032007Mike TeelRutgers3493147201397312416.108.080.27908
1042005Drew StantonMichigan State3543077221225164965025.347.410.79907
1052007Zac RobinsonOklahoma State31626662295291278566.798.320.32907
1062008Todd ReesingKansas4953880321330219964434.647.080.46905
1072006Colt McCoyTexas3182570297149754267528.240.27894
1082008Jevan SneadMississippi327276226131999381594.237.50.89890
1092005Kellen ClemensOregon2892406194626632544.108.730.08884
1102009Chris ToddAuburn32826122261916425481.907.550.81883
1112012Stephen MorrisMiami (Florida)421334521716118351885.317.630.19877
1122010Ryan LindleySan Diego State4213830281497410434.308.57-0.73870
1132006Bryan CupitoMinnesota3592819229168721180.807.390.74865
1142011Tajh BoydClemson49938283312312131114313.957.050.39862
1152007Colt BrennanHawai'i5104343381729140531673.187.79-0.38859
1162011Derek CarrFresno State477371127920123382025.337.490.05856
1172012Matt ScottArizona499362027141690975966.266.680.79852
1182008Willie TuitamaArizona39930882382817921592.827.050.76850
1192011Keith PriceWashington3623063331127150291605.637.910.09848
1202005Brian JohnsonUtah330289218725153127631587.840.35845
1212010Aaron MurrayGeorgia342304924825202623695.948.090.03843
1222005John StoccoWisconsin328292021935226511943.827.470.67843
1232011Blaine GautierLouisiana-Lafayette344295823619128996146.238.32-0.19842
1242007Dennis DixonOregon253212920413106926967.698.420.54838
1252009Blaine GabbertMissouri445359324919179843834.537.520.1836
1262009Tony PikeCincinnati338252029611722078427.890.31834
1272010Tyrod TaylorVirginia Tech3152743245322001148597.658.050.15830
1282012E.J. ManuelFlorida State3873392231025177784876.247.83-0.01828
1292006Chase DanielMissouri45235272810161251315043.847.510.06820
1302008Nate DavisBall State40135912681494524067.858.81-1.03819
1312006Matt MooreOregon State37830221873119646185457.030.79818
1322010Nick FolesArizona426319120102416911564.916.611.02816
1332010Denard RobinsonMichigan2912570181185024817527.1147.960.56809
1342009Kirk CousinsMichigan State32826801991169201296.407.630.57809
1352005Sam KellerArizona State264216520914906-4-0.817.441.27803
1362007Andre' WoodsonKentucky518370940113626633732.236.770.5802
1372011Casey PachallTCU343292125713109551602.928.43-0.36800
1382011Kirk CousinsMichigan State419331625101610021612.907.510.15799
1392009Zach CollarosCincinnati1241434102321543656.8411.980.12798
1402012Seth DoegeTexas Tech5414205391618132301916.327.4-0.16796
1412007Max HallBYU4963848261220123321374.217.180.17795
1422012Derek CarrFresno State584457939102920741206507.67-0.58784
1432012Bryn RennerNorth Carolina42233562871174501122.218.15-0.53781
1442008Trevor VittatoeUTEP418327433924212211818.617.50.08780
1452009Bill StullPittsburgh3212633218159917482.827.730.41778
1462009Christian PonderFlorida State330271814716122563015.427.40.64770
1472009Colt McCoyTexas4703521271230161995095.136.720.61759
1482005Omar JacobsBowling Green32125902671174291364.718.2-0.1756
1492009Daryll ClarkPenn State3813003241017101673124.677.370.34755
1502009Joshua NesbittGeorgia Tech1621701105128426711214.2189.161754
1512006Blake MitchellSouth Carolina20217891061055151026.817.851.51751
1522008Russell WilsonNorth Carolina State275195517123149935375.847.051.29751
1532010Scott TolzienWisconsin2662459166139317633.808.65-0.15750
1542010Matt BarkleyUSC377279126121610318864.726.790.93748
1552007Alex BrinkWashington State5033818261520167432014.706.680.55739
1562006Chase HolbrookNew Mexico State566461934934178461002.247.86-0.82737
1572012Tino SunseriPittsburgh393328821338291301003.317.62-0.1732
1582009Russell WilsonNorth Carolina State3783027311129190744506.147.280.32725
1592007Cullen HarperClemson433299127629209421202.936.60.78724
1602009Joe CoxGeorgia33225842415129319653.306.681.24723
1612009Jonathan CromptonTennessee384280027131814026883.416.511.08711
1622012David AshTexas3182699198971422125.128.09-0.12705
1632007Colin KaepernickNevada24721751931899876927.968.76-0.29704
1642011Ryan TannehillTexas A&M53037442915944493507.146.690.43703
1652012Brett SmithWyoming330283227625204894525.168.17-0.38699
1662005Colt BrennanHawai'i5154301351334200653545.427.68-0.6697
1672011James VandenbergIowa404302225729208492695.536.930.49694
1682012Jordan RodgersVanderbilt319253915523175682463.627.120.72693
1692006Zac TaylorNebraska391319726828194321625.117.55-0.1684
1702010Colin KaepernickNevada3593022218116616412697.7208.16-0.49684
1712008Josh FreemanKansas State382294520814110935145.5147.270.27679
1722006Chad HenneMichigan32825082282415823753.206.910.82670
1732011Chandler HarnishNorthern Illinois3843216286118418314638118.66-1.15670
1742009Jerrod JohnsonTexas A&M4973579308282161177226.286.860.23667
1752011Seth DoegeTexas Tech5814004281019125351714.946.650.27660
1762011Terrance OwensToledo2302022183533362426.719.44-0.81659
1772008Colin KaepernickNevada38428492271712414412548.7177.110.34655
1782012Terrance BroadwayLouisiana-Lafayette316284217912591078287.798.3-0.48654
1792007Joe GanzNebraska1521435167527151208390.98653
1802012Everett GolsonNotre Dame31824051261584793824.866.890.89653
1812008Robert Griffin IIIBaylor26720911532316915010126.7137.20.85648
1822012J.W. WalshOklahoma State1631564133317473076.6710.04-0.33648
1832012Taylor KellyArizona State3603040299321991017197.117.7-0.23645
1842012Brett HundleyUCLA47837402911502951106505.996.680.35641
1852010Robert Griffin IIIBaylor4543501228191171307525.887.32-0.16633
1862006Alex BrinkWashington State3962899191027170511783.526.291.02632
1872007Taylor TharpBoise State423334030111588471563.317.66-0.4631
1882005Brandon CoxAuburn30623241582116223371.606.431.31627
1892007Todd ReesingKansas445347633723152683535.237.83-0.68627
1902010Mike HartlineKentucky40531782391510817734.217.45-0.14624
1912012Collin KleinKansas State3042646169148619310115.2237.79-0.02622
1922005Darrell HackneyUAB386318022121571361764.917.51-0.15617
1932009Dan LefevourCentral Michigan455343828716831687974.7157.64-0.52613
1942007Willie TuitamaArizona525368228122921725542.136.290.63610
1952011Bryn RennerNorth Carolina350308626132518132932.917.58-0.14609
1962005Paul SmithTulsa364284720624124873824.467.350.03607
1972011John BrantleyFlorida2402044117151221020.207.161.03605
1982009Levi BrownTroy504425423924124301314.317.93-0.98602
1992010Stephen GarciaSouth Carolina3493059201426140793624.667.160.26602
2002009Landry JonesOklahoma449319826141311022-3-0.106.440.67601
2012011Jacory HarrisMiami (Florida)300248620916112372005.407.490.22600
2022008Juice WilliamsIllinois38131732216241591518785.856.750.54594
2032009Nathan EnderleIdaho31229062292012721723.508.47-0.88590
2042007Nate DavisBall State478366730625135533706.957.68-0.69590
2052006Bobby ReidOklahoma State26722662411151021046025.857.610.29588
2062005Tim HillerWestern Michigan15013342031261261204.719.47-0.03588
2072011G.J. KinneTulsa38830732812151061105114.637.41-0.14587
2082006Jared ZabranskyBoise State288258723818131803284.168.35-0.61587
2092008Brian JohnsonUtah394297227923144862793.217.10.1580
2102009Jacory HarrisMiami (Florida)406335224173425114322.316.40.73579
2112007Rudy CarpenterArizona State3983202251052360411553.806.430.67576
2122005Chad HenneMichigan38225262382110733132416.250.99575
2132008Jeremiah MasoliOregon239174413516951118137.3106.61.44568
2142006Paul ThompsonOklahoma3362667221117110542614.837.090.33565
2152011Jarrett LeeLSU1671306143735-120-33.108.150.91565
2162011Tyler BrayTennessee2471983176121111441317.490.5564
2172006Pat WhiteWest Virginia1791655137125915312788.3188.080.69563
2182005Chris LeakFlorida374263920634220713014.366.240.95563
2192006John StoccoWisconsin26821851762316425853.417.190.52553
2202009Todd ReesingKansas4963616221031270733895.366.330.54551
2212005Paul PinegarFresno State416333530151388331474.537.39-0.29550
2222005Marcus VickVirginia Tech28923931710322121155925.266.441.07544
2232009Sean CanfieldOregon State44632712172721421542.626.680.28543
2242005John BeckBYU5133709271324143492044.126.560.26540
2252007Pat WhiteWest Virginia216172414493818813737.3147.930.28539
2262007Matthew StaffordGeorgia348252319101410525873.426.490.81537
2272008Drew WillyBuffalo46833042563019235772.246.710.17529
2282010Kirk CousinsMichigan State338282520102117019341.817.260.03526
2292010Jordan WynnUtah2992334171064712363.107.130.41526
2302007Rusty SmithFlorida Atlantic4793688329131232670.327.72-0.84523
2312007Matt RyanBoston College6544507311920182481843.926.060.52520
2322010Terrelle PryorOhio State32327722711191201168747.647.88-0.55516
2332005Michael RobinsonPenn State3112350171013911508976116.640.76511
2342009Scott TolzienWisconsin3282705161122150321584.926.80.47510
2352008Tim HillerWestern Michigan522372536101499241014.217.27-0.5509
2362008Omar ClaytonUNLV25818941841080582414.117.450.25505
2372005Kyle WrightMiami (Florida)307240318103322431123416.141.15501
2382009Rusty SmithFlorida Atlantic25319151455438253.217.460.29501
2392012Devin GardnerMichigan12612191151175361764.978.321.09491
2402012Cody VazOregon State1851480113201508-26-3.306.91.3489
2412005Phil HorvathNorthern Illinois23820011881698181196.617.490.25489
2422009Steven SheffieldTexas Tech1361219144108610454.428.460.7487
2432009Jeremiah MasoliOregon305214715610911117596.9136.610.73483
2442010T.J. YatesNorth Carolina422341819937264421874.436.820.04480
2452011Tevin WashingtonGeorgia Tech1501652118116623110524.6148.97-0.18478
2462012Matt McGloinPenn State446327124521180381293.357.17-0.33477
2472006Brandon CoxAuburn27121981493420217251.516.131.25476
2482010Taylor PottsTexas Tech5503726359181641516811.526.78-0.13474
2492005Ryan HartRutgers2552135188105115332.207.86-0.26472
2502010Chandler HarnishNorthern Illinois292253021512721259087.278.74-1.37472
2512005Justin HollandColorado State369318523152319514211.507.07-0.07467
2522005Brodie CroyleAlabama33924991443523529792.816.320.74466
2532007Tom BrandstaterFresno State337265415516101322196.837.45-0.32462
2542009Kevin RileyCalifornia382285018830171522224.316.50.43458
2552009Martevious YoungSouthern Mississippi2301861163764663585.418.36-0.62457
2562005Dustin AlmondSouthern Mississippi394286023121411222150.726.540.39456
2572006Jordan PalmerUTEP429359526142317324873.617.33-0.51451
2582008Jerrod JohnsonTexas A&M3262435211028211663254.936.20.87444
2592011Tanner PriceWake Forest42230172063323245179416.410.37439
2602011James FranklinMissouri377287221111811619910975.5156.790.14439
2612006Isaiah StanbackWashington18913251031048753985.346.751.24431
2622010Danny O'BrienMaryland3372438228138118331.816.970.07428
2632012Tyler RussellMississippi State3942897241018120251154.526.820.03425
2642012Casey PachallTCU9794810133018532.9010.75-0.7423
2652011Austin DavisSouthern Mississippi4753496301117125934775.147.07-0.4422
2662011Dan PersaNorthwestern298238017732223472555.516.60.49421
2672005Steven MoffettUCF375292522934272623655.926.570.27420
2682005Charlie WhitehurstClemson3402483111019147311735.635.871.11417
2692005Alex BrinkWashington State3582891241317111392175.627.13-0.2417
2702008Dan LefevourCentral Michigan3762784216181211507134.767.15-0.28412
2712010Jake LockerWashington332226517918105964905.165.990.99406
2722008Austen ArnaudIowa State401279215101692934935.356.110.68405
2732012Brendon KayCincinnati1381298102951393579.229.22-0.66405
2742011Connor HallidayWashington State10396194154-8-2.109.190.51403
2752006John Parker WilsonAlabama3792707171027200552835.205.90.91403
2762008Lyle MoevaoOregon State361253419131914617281.725.741.13402
2772008Andy DaltonTCU307224211515118985505.686.580.48401
2782012Connor ShawSouth Carolina2281956177251681066035.737.170.22398
2792005Bret MeyerIowa State3682876191037233963563.716.350.44395
2802006Will ProctorClemson3042353161116102451874.116.50.55394
2812009Thaddeus LewisDuke449333020823166632143.446.78-0.13393
2822010Adam WeberMinnesota368267920917121352777.806.640.2390
2832011Riley NelsonBYU2021717197126276454618.04-0.41388
2842009Matt BarkleyUSC352273515141810527672.426.220.64388
2852005Josh BettsMiami (Ohio)434317827131814726863.316.610.06385
2862006Riley SkinnerWake Forest2602051952114731762.406.620.56383
2872010Geno SmithWest Virginia372276324727197794145.206.85-0.07383
2882005Isaiah StanbackWashington26421369621113794665.956.780.38382
2892009Aaron OpeltToledo26119971610751232159.336.780.46380
2902012Jordan LynchNorthern Illinois3943138256177927718946.8198.01-1.27378
2912009Jordan JeffersonLSU29621661773222780398515.980.98378
2922012Chuckie KeetonUtah State4073373279171171127366.687.99-1.28377
2932006Nick DavilaCincinnati11810578384920231.118.230.59376
2942006Dan LefevourCentral Michigan38830312610271871057086.777.02-0.3375
2952006Jeff BallardTCU3072394135126198484587.42-0.43375
2962009Riley SkinnerWake Forest4003160261227170432265.326.95-0.26373
2972008Austin DavisSouthern Mississippi4543128238301851256935.596.290.29370
2982008Terrelle PryorOhio State1661311124191341207656.466.691.12369
2992012Bo WallaceMississippi36829942217301951135855.286.220.52368
3002005Matt RyanBoston College195151485842291364.756.930.67362
3012008Adam DiMicheleTemple231191118615125462164.737.61-0.35358
3022011E.J. ManuelFlorida State311266618834239753955.347.03-0.18357
3032005JaMarcus RussellLSU311244315920196411744.226.470.42357
3042010Ricky DobbsNavy1501527136106525610324149.08-1.04355
3052006Brett RatliffUtah391279623915118833784.516.74-0.04355
3062011Richard BrehautUCLA12194861416401854.628.060.59355
3072008Pat WhiteWest Virginia2741842217169317510676.186.390.62348
3082009Stephen GarciaSouth Carolina4322862171035246854325.145.361.19345
3092005Jay CutlerVanderbilt462307321923180833954.7160.52342
3102011Colby CameronLouisiana Tech2141649133635372155.707.92-0.56339
3112005Joel KlattColorado400269614818137361403.805.940.69338
3122011Logan ThomasVirginia Tech39130131910161071375764.2116.96-0.32337
3132007John David BootyUSC33923512310121121160.516.420.36336
3142012Clint ChelfOklahoma State197158815684823210907.67-0.22335
3152005Reggie McNealTexas A&M2651963169957877218.336.640.39333
3162012Joe SouthwickBoise State3722730197943371644.407.23-0.54332
3172010Tim JeffersonAir Force15914591065251498195.5158.32-0.48331
3182005James PinkneyEast Carolina366277314821144743374.676.580.08329
3192011Tyler TettletonOhio41333062810231731417945.6107.43-0.87326
3202010Christian PonderFlorida State298204420821124793043.946.140.69322
3212007Kevin O'ConnellSan Diego State4393063158292021056286115.990.51320
3222006Adam TafralisSan Jose State27622842171579743094.227.94-1.03319
3232010Ryan KatzOregon State3532383181133220452345.225.251.39318
3242012Blake BortlesUCF399305925722142644276.787.36-0.8317
3252012Connor DietzAir Force1111131833181416874.959.94-1.38314
3262012Taylor MartinezNebraska368287123123424516112647.9106.330.26313
3272011Tyler RussellMississippi State1291034841175221205.316.731.33313
3282006Casey DickArkansas132991963275152.906.491.65312
3292012Jonathan PerryUAB1221033611063261244.827.920.26311
3302012Corey RobinsonTroy390314112985813110.917.32-0.73309
3312006Nate DavisBall State24519751881310916613.807.23-0.23306
3322007Matt FlynnLSU3592407211125174753895.245.620.99305
3332011Kevin PrinceUCLA22418281282514295566616.290.75305
3342008Greg AlexanderHawai'i245189514532186583255.636.370.54304
3352009Joe WebbUAB27122992181911520715397.4117.73-0.87303
3362008Jimmy ClausenNotre Dame4403172251722181321083.305.90.57303
3372006Shaun CarneyAir Force137119212318931707114.287.750301
3382007Chris TurnerMaryland24119567722154221285.806.190.77299
3392009Jake LockerWashington3952800211127171855596.676.050.47298
3402008Patrick PinkneyEast Carolina363267513724134661842.816.430.16297
3412012Logan KilgoreMiddle Tennessee3352571166766151389.417.46-0.78296
3422005Shaun CarneyAir Force14813937711581597684.8117.290.38295
3432006Sam HollenbachMaryland3282371151120121311314.225.910.75294
3442011Alex CarderWestern Michigan5023873311421162107432447.08-0.7293
3452006Drew TateIowa352262318131683332076.306.290.32292
3462011Austin DantinToledo1881404154537542204.127.7-0.38291
3472008Billy FarrisColorado State3792934191320146261124.406.470.07290
3482010Ryan TannehillTexas A&M234163813613111381874.916.140.85289
3492006Chris NicksonVanderbilt2922085151316921307866.195.541.21289
3502010Zach CollarosCincinnati3832902261431232904344.846.180.33288
3512006Stephen McGeeTexas A&M313229512218100128766647.09-0.41288
3522009Cody EndresConnecticut15413546413844-13-3.507.240.29287
3532011Marshall LobbestaelWashington State34125841983117911756.716.520.06286
3542005Bruce GradkowskiToledo33224692912858533496.647.21-0.56285
3552010Dan PersaNorthwestern3022581154341851307045.497.48-0.82285
3562005Sam HollenbachMaryland3152539131528200441824.125.611.03282
3572008T.J. YatesNorth Carolina135116811410721450.417.81-0.08279
3582011Tyler HansenColorado4122883201127183542985.535.940.51279
3592009Tyler SheehanBowling Green575405127727172461643.646.81-0.54278
3602010Dayne CristNotre Dame29420331571484381584.246.280.43275
3612008Cameron SextonNorth Carolina168126196141041280.715.871.44271
3622009Taylor PottsTexas Tech47034402213171937172.226.38-0.01269
3632009Joey ElliottPurdue4333026221319119683875.746.110.3267
3642008John Parker WilsonAlabama323227310825176471703.655.571.01266
3652006Rudy CarpenterArizona State3322523231434197502665.405.880.66266
3662006Syvelle NewtonSouth Carolina16213161271069763995.236.820.52262
3672008Adam WeberMinnesota410276115829193984264.345.720.69260
3682010Blaine GabbertMissouri475318616922137903694.155.970.37259
3692008Chris TurnerMaryland374251613112619317392.315.221.24256
3702010Jeff TuelWashington State3662780181249255864495.215.650.77251
3712007Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-EnhadaNavy989528510511708855.2127.740.4251
3722006Justin WillisSMU2702047266261831065375.137.14-0.48250
3732008Brian HoyerMichigan State3532404992016723733.215.391.08245
3742010Brock OsweilerArizona State10979750727311514.917.480.43244
3752009Ryan ColburnFresno State298245919111778492495.127.19-0.6243
3762010Cody HawkinsColorado231154714577123917.606.440.4242
3772007Sam KellerNebraska3252422141013871290.706.410.11237
3782007Tyler DonovanWisconsin3332607171129190834675.656.260.2233
3792007Martin HankinsMemphis42832202512106126612.307.12-0.79228
3802007Brian HoyerMichigan State376272520112919118864.816.020.34222
3812006Drew WeatherfordFlorida State31821541211189539812.115.371.11221
3822007Drew WeatherfordFlorida State3182049931796452084.635.970.47210
3832010Tino SunseriPittsburgh346255716921158322668.326.310.08209
3842010Chris RelfMississippi State2171776126181081778094.656.97-0.28206
3852010G.J. KinneTulsa46036503110281611307225.577.5-1.27203
3862010Taylor MartinezNebraska19616311072013314210987.8126.390.34199
3872007Todd BoeckmanOhio State2982372251416111401744.306.79-0.39184
3882007Xavier LeeFlorida State12497255633371303.536.280.94181
3892010Jeff GodfreyUCF2382159138161011366674.9107.7-1.19177
3902007Sean GlennonVirginia Tech235179612533178331354.116.090.37173
3912007Josh FreemanKansas State499335318111613737972.645.990.15162
3922007Andrew RobinsonSyracuse292219213744261512224.405.580.72162
3932010Matt McGloinPenn State21515481496546589.226.20.35161
3942007Caleb HanieColorado State292245518153522357229425.860.42150
3952007Donovan PorterieNew Mexico41429561592212036862.406.26-0.11146
3962007Colt McCoyTexas4243303221824142906347.146.22-0.1137
3972007Nate LongshoreCalifornia384256616138531190.815.740.42134
3982007Joe CraddockMiddle Tennessee15512591251497412195.316.97-0.38130
3992007Casey DickArkansas2621695181097922105.620.65125
4002007Adam TafralisSan Jose State4003022181116102602834.826.69-0.61109
  • It’s hard to overstate how dominant Sam Bradford‘s 2008 season was; remember, those Sooners topped 45 points in 11 games. And his production here includes the less-than-stellar performance he had in the National Championship Game against Florida. He finished number one in this system by over 300 yards.
  • Tim Tebow had two top-20 seasons and a top-60 year, and that excludes all of his rushing statistics. Cam Newton‘s great 2010 season came in at #38, although again, much of Newton’s value came on the ground. Similarly, Vince Young’s fantastic 2005 would look a lot better if we added in his rushing stats. Young ranked 5th in passing value, rushed for 1,150 yards on 8.1 yards per carry, and ran for 12 touchdowns.
  • 2012 was the year of the rookie quarterback in the NFL — and the table here can help us see why. Robert Griffin III‘s 2011 comes in at #4, Russell Wilson at #13, and Andrew Luck finished his career with two top-35 seasons.
  • I discussed yesterday how Matt Barkley‘s 2012 season wasn’t that much worse than his 2011 campaign; of course, USC quarterbacks have tended to perform pretty well over the last eight years. Both Mark Sanchez and Matt Leinart had top-20 seasons. Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones both regressed in 2012, too, and for Jones, he actually had his best year in 2000.
  • The 2007 NFL Draft was a disaster for quarterbacks: JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn went in the first round, but none of the quarterbacks had much success. If you type ’2006′ into the search engine, you don’t see a lot of promising players, but it’s still interesting to see how they performed in college.
  • A few people wondered where was Braxton Miller on yesterday’s last. Well, Miller ranked 61st last year. While the Buckeyes went 12-0, Miller threw just 15 touchdown passes and barely cracked 2,000 yards. He also was sacked on 10% of his dropbacks. His ANY/A was 6.8 but came against a schedule that was 0.4 ANY/A easier than average.

What about the top pass defenses of the last 8 years?

Rank
Year
Defense
Att
TD
INT
Sk
Skyd
ANY/A
SOS
Value
12009Nebraska490720443122.680.892151
22006Florida4581021342583.171.562069
32009Alabama4491124312502.530.711917
42012Florida444720301973.251.151763
52011LSU437718382553.110.981756
62008USC382619292201.930.281715
72009Texas4601425423422.640.141661
82009Florida3961020382412.730.71643
92009Ohio State4161024312012.570.41631
102008Florida4561226332072.820.331624
112012Stanford5501315573464.260.891485
122006Ohio State4151021382782.970.411477
132009Oklahoma4341118382433.180.491472
142008Oklahoma5272219422924.951.711466
152009Iowa383921301772.530.261462
162007Virginia Tech5181022473083.270.031459
172005Penn State4351116412723.710.951455
182008California43212243527030.271446
192010Oregon4891521331983.810.721425
202009North Carolina3961019322573.150.661424
212008Boston College435926352252.69-0.11423
222011South Carolina3461419312022.480.421417
232011Alabama334613301982.160.11368
242007Utah427917372723.280.411368
252012LSU4571518352243.950.881353
262012Oregon5151925281603.820.491351
272011Georgia4301220352663.310.391347
282006Georgia3421119332132.940.671331
292008TCU384815433173.250.541329
302006LSU364111639.52392.860.331325
312012Alabama397818352073.640.871314
322011Oklahoma State5411524301954.480.961313
332007LSU4511923372823.320.181306
342012Arizona State3942321513303.070.181302
352006Boston College4501121291793.610.481290
362006Michigan4881912423254.61.191277
372005USC4521822321834.511.311266
382007Connecticut4301223301813.360.31266
392008Ohio State4401215272153.720.581251
402005Ohio State40586432904.681.641247
412011Penn State4271214312134.090.991241
422006Wisconsin387615291752.57-0.271240
432011Oregon5292517452785.091.421235
442005Oregon4432223302083.980.771232
452005TCU4251426412833.18-0.011223
462007Kansas5281723261813.640.021218
472005Virginia Tech3871119372192.71-0.241212
482010Boise State371814483032.84-0.091212
492008Boise State449822342482.89-0.421211
502010Ohio State385919221593.240.381203
512006Penn State4401013402793.950.621193
522012South Carolina3791815432754.61.61187
532010Nebraska3901319312423.120.111183
542005Michigan3911412262024.871.891180
552008Iowa463923171213.31-0.071171
562005Miami (Florida)354814352582.82-0.071138
572005LSU4311210382843.810.391126
582010Alabama3671222271773.460.491121
592012Florida State4531311362783.580.031108
602010Oklahoma4961519372764.030.281100
612005Texas4361011312593.60.121091
622011Michigan State4012018452953.970.591087
632010LSU3441519342653.670.71074
642008Connecticut368918291843.460.281047
652007South Florida4742123301893.880.111033
662006Virginia Tech314617302182.34-0.481033
672008San Jose State356916332533.210.041029
682008Troy423182140.52713.42-0.191024
692007South Carolina3581414201494.040.921022
702006USC4361311352294.670.971000
712009Clemson3612021352303.80.51999
722007West Virginia3851516392514.210.74996
732008Vanderbilt3621520301933.780.5994
742007Cincinnati4931526423053.980.01992
752008Texas Tech4341918342215.341.64991
762009Mississippi3961213322303.950.44984
772006Arkansas4332016372624.270.55982
782008East Carolina4381822302164.090.37982
792007Ohio State4061311422793.21-0.42982
802005Georgia369816352903.35-0.04981
812012Fresno State3801522382352.99-0.49979
822011Utah4641819292254.80.97978
832005Georgia Tech3841621362434.040.53971
842010Stanford4241618362414.120.41971
852009Air Force3281020231583.270.21966
862011Texas4561312291914.650.83965
872012Notre Dame4341116332333.990.24964
882008Clemson4271419141213.51-0.13960
892007Auburn4031114221743.920.35955
902009Tennessee392510201504.130.63954
912008Cincinnati4781817402554.320.34953
922012Michigan State4251014201513.830.12937
932008Texas491196473835.761.68936
942006Oklahoma4341518262034.180.39929
952005Tulsa35992230.52383.460.02924
962010Miami (Florida)327916372413.23-0.05923
972009Oklahoma State5041618281994.490.41922
982005Nebraska4151313503813.850.01920
992011Vanderbilt3981619271724.220.56919
1002011Oklahoma4731815402884.940.92919
1012010Missouri4411318372503.86-0.05912
1022011Southern Mississippi5351419282054.2-0.01906
1032010TCU3231012271553.370.12898
1042011Rutgers355819362533.29-0.24894
1052010Iowa4791219211734.420.39892
1062012Boise State376418372542.95-0.71890
1072009TCU3991014321913.37-0.39889
1082009Boise State4391524251553.41-0.52877
1092007USC444912452983.68-0.35876
1102009Oregon4561814362064.520.48875
1112006TCU386916372763.42-0.33873
1122012Oregon State4711420281864.230.16870
1132008Alabama4671815251844.370.33870
1142008Utah4091519292243.860.01862
1152006Oregon State4301717473424.960.93851
1162011Mississippi State4341212271654.550.57846
1172006Oregon3611715302104.280.61842
1182008Northwestern4721313342354.40.23838
1192009Pittsburgh4111715473364.580.59837
1202009Virginia Tech367911362733.930.19835
1212009Utah3971217302233.61-0.26833
1222005South Florida3081113362523.980.58832
1232006Clemson38591435.52333.870.03830
1242007Kentucky4312417241674.890.9829
1252010Florida3721722211153.870.16825
1262008South Carolina328914312073.940.41822
1272005North Carolina State3801013422973.83-0.05819
1282008Missouri5822914332546.031.54816
1292008Wake Forest3821518241413.920.11816
1302007Georgia4291215422974.330.25814
1312005San Diego State4071018171014.570.67812
1322010Notre Dame4391118261644.380.31811
1332005Alabama352911271923.750.05800
1342008Penn State3991016332033.95-0.02798
1352005West Virginia3701217291944.250.42795
1362008Arizona4071216241424.040.07793
1372010Texas A&M5101916292314.590.24793
1382007Arkansas4852120241923.93-0.33793
1392007Oklahoma489171932.52394.680.38791
1402012USC4342019452794.630.46787
1412006Western Michigan3821424463273.42-0.56787
1422011Florida State4011616412904.10.06787
1432005Oklahoma4382013452744.420.22784
1442009USC4631211352154.60.35780
1452005Tennessee36499332204.861778
1462010Boston College5101420201364.14-0.21777
1472007Arizona State4871817292144.540.22774
1482009LSU4161313201444.720.67773
1492010Arizona413189332215.491.39766
1502006South Florida3891115372573.92-0.1763
1512012Virginia Tech4211713352404.610.46757
1522008Kansas5202715291965.881.43755
1532006Rutgers312815412593.38-0.31751
1542011North Carolina State4071727402474-0.17740
1552012TCU4342221291994.620.4740
1562012Utah State4751214422903.92-0.47738
1572009Arizona State3661315231534.370.44734
1582009Purdue3721212311954.820.82730
1592010Virginia Tech4291923352164.330.07724
1602005South Carolina365101231.51994.280.28716
1612012Oklahoma4201113241384.910.69707
1622007Rutgers365149412784.470.39704
1632007Hawai'i454162038.52463.97-0.42703
1642007Michigan3931414322054.160701
1652007UCF5282624392694.3-0.28701
1662008Tennessee332817231353.34-0.51698
1672011California3981912331995.331.13697
1682012Rutgers4221318251834.60.34697
1692007Clemson4251216281733.97-0.31697
1702009Auburn4521917282004.690.31693
1712008Oklahoma State525281215846.331.79691
1722007Vanderbilt3671516291764.470.39688
1732009Penn State4011014372233.99-0.26686
1742006Boise State3971720331894.15-0.07684
1752007Oregon487202038.52604.720.21684
1762005Boston College4271011372194.60.26684
1772008UCF3981418301884.14-0.08683
1782008Colorado380169241695.771.64682
1792006Georgia Tech4611113352764.23-0.21681
1802007Oregon State4442022433594.34-0.08680
1812007Missouri5601817312604.960.29680
1822008Oregon5302516382255.40.77675
1832007BYU4481216322284.22-0.19672
1842007Wake Forest5092019292174.33-0.24668
1852005Pittsburgh2951014201203.59-0.11667
1862007Pittsburgh322118352574.510.55664
1872006Alabama3311516131005.031.13661
1882005Florida State404151244.52764.670.33660
1892006Arizona358141315995.561.51658
1902008West Virginia4281117251614.1-0.26657
1912012Kansas State4741818312125.10.57651
1922008Mississippi4381816393054.650.19649
1932007TCU4641316412954.17-0.36646
1942006BYU4451218241754.1-0.34646
1952009South Florida3871413251484.780.52644
1962009South Carolina349116261735.060.95641
1972006Cincinnati4201414312094.570.17639
1982006UCLA4211813392635.250.82636
1992008Notre Dame4221514271984.490.09634
2002012Nebraska3971813311774.560.23634
2012011Louisiana Tech5092121322064.64-0.01632
2022008North Carolina4661520221194.550.02629
2032008Virginia Tech3431220352734.01-0.15625
2042006Tennessee3311616171225.261.23623
2052010Oklahoma State5702419291835.060.27621
2062012Texas3511615342295.641.44621
2072011Virginia Tech4131616412844.680.23621
2082008Arizona State4051616231774.50.13620
2092012Vanderbilt432711311964.19-0.3612
2102005Clemson3731014331954.25-0.06611
2112008Oregon State3541513392754.560.28606
2122011Missouri4872013271635.711.07603
2132010Maryland4991719282044.26-0.42600
2142008Baylor4272216191355.941.46599
2152006Wyoming3191011291933.99-0.12595
2162011Texas A&M511197513435.91.13588
2172006Wake Forest4461222321964.37-0.23583
2182007UCLA5032313382604.910.17583
2192012Washington3941717271454.740.31582
2202008Pittsburgh3961916322284.540.08582
2212009Boston College4481215181315.050.48580
2222011West Virginia4481514311804.46-0.15579
2232005Baylor3901416211504.35-0.06576
2242009UCLA3671620251964.36-0.01568
2252005California4551415321984.710.04562
2262005Iowa State4461222271824.18-0.46558
2272008Georgia Tech4152018342524.12-0.45557
2282008Bowling Green3541315241794.17-0.18553
2292010Tennessee4391418261794.890.27553
2302009Arizona4211912341964.980.36547
2312012Georgia3511313322035.040.65547
2322005Kansas4202015302204.770.17547
2332007Illinois4792117392734.950.17539
2342005Florida3751616332324.48-0.02539
2352007Troy378151527.51764.06-0.43537
2362011Illinois3281510412404.660.29534
2372005North Carolina3281311302145.230.9534
2382010West Virginia3931212452603.9-0.7533
2392011Ohio State3521813231445.330.93532
2402010California360159332254.820.36530
2412006Southern Mississippi393141724.51574.51-0.04529
2422006Louisville414121244.52804.850.19529
2432009Virginia3521012221274.670.27528
2442005Northwestern425202012455.961.34526
2452011Houston4691921312264.26-0.51523
2462009West Virginia4231917281844.790.13523
2472005Toledo3881615322284.08-0.51517
2482007Mississippi State3872018191144.31-0.26504
2492011Arkansas4071212291964.680.02502
2502012Mississippi4272215382685.811.07502
2512009Ohio4481720211234.36-0.39501
2522006Nevada3641520372324.31-0.28493
2532010Florida State4771715482644.86-0.03489
2542005Arizona3411312241265.671.19487
2552010Arizona State4301812231735.720.97485
2562008Florida State342159392884.51-0.04484
2572010Air Force3211012131054.420.05484
2582006Missouri4001913352154.58-0.12483
2592011Wisconsin3521516251404.590.03475
2602006Auburn3391310291904.910.37470
2612010Texas305138302714.680.26468
2622008UCLA3321911211524.940.45466
2632010BYU3842016241824.890.21463
2642011Kansas State4782618221395.991.09459
2652007Boston College574212534.52174.33-0.75453
2662006East Carolina376171617.5994.870.2451
2672011UCLA471281414826.231.34451
2682008Virginia3321311292194.820.25450
2692009Rutgers3861315402454.69-0.07449
2702005Mississippi State3161312301804.870.35449
2712012BYU3781212342204.39-0.34449
2722007North Carolina State3991410271775.030.26444
2732006Texas Tech3651911301625.30.61444
2742006South Carolina313131432.52045.490.95442
2752009Texas Tech4661210402654.86-0.1435
2762010Michigan State4221917201275.310.48434
2772009Vanderbilt3051312201204.860.37433
2782012Ohio State4571514302594.79-0.14431
2792007California4441710221655.390.5431
2802006Kent State326816301763.29-1.33427
2812008Air Force3751512342345.20.42424
2822006California4211721261365.350.47422
2832007Alabama4282019241744.970.08419
2842012Mississippi State4141719181475.140.29417
2852011USC457179301825.981.01414
2862005East Carolina3061115201534.37-0.18411
2872012Texas A&M4851712311705.60.58410
2882009Cincinnati4201616372445.140.22408
2892011Kentucky3421915201265.260.57407
2902012Minnesota4041513261764.57-0.31404
2912010Pittsburgh3941513342354.41-0.47400
2922008Michigan State4221814261915.160.24399
2932005Wisconsin4762516302215.550.52399
2942010North Carolina4312319292254.67-0.28398
2952010Arkansas3401311372295.160.4398
2962007San Jose State4302220181335.170.24396
2972008Wisconsin4041512231455.060.17396
2982012Western Kentucky3942413322225.630.74392
2992010Mississippi State4461913261585.780.79392
3002007Arizona4521715261664.83-0.17391
3012006Iowa4232014211435.310.37386
3022012Pittsburgh4141515241374.59-0.36380
3032010Connecticut4451620271884.53-0.48380
3042005Syracuse2931214251584.690.07379
3052007New Mexico4161611231505.10.15377
3062007Indiana4692119422804.8-0.28376
3072012Oklahoma State5442011251635.940.78374
3082011Boise State4012115241465.510.56369
3092011Arkansas State4752019352534.42-0.67369
3102005Auburn3608838.52354.90.01367
3112009Middle Tennessee4401619372524.29-0.76364
3122010Georgia3161416241555.140.4364
3132012Northern Illinois5091115382614.4-0.76360
3142006Tulsa345148201395.070.23355
3152011Kent State3611114261804.56-0.34355
3162010South Florida4041815302494.46-0.55349
3172005Miami (Ohio)3681620231453.99-0.94347
3182011Michigan374129301805.270.31346
3192012North Carolina State4552016332255.540.43344
3202007Notre Dame3441911181254.69-0.18343
3212012Northwestern4971813281855.420.25337
3222005Colorado484151426.51975.310.14333
3232008Ball State454171625.51724.84-0.3326
3242005Connecticut2841014272093.55-1.23321
3252006Illinois3351110211405.10.19320
3262006Nebraska446171231.52385.390.24317
3272005Army304101213674.75-0.07317
3282006Miami (Florida)362912382494.58-0.45317
3292010UCF4752117322084.63-0.57316
3302009Louisiana Tech3681613221705.210.19312
3312007Florida State464241729.51785.530.34311
3322012Missouri401197211496.671.58310
3332010Washington3591512281765.450.42304
3342006Washington State3831516362115.460.34292
3352006Ohio4151413231704.42-0.73290
3362011BYU4311313231594.69-0.49290
3372005Texas Tech3781212171004.47-0.62288
3382005Wyoming3481914261615-0.05287
3392011Nebraska3611610211365.850.77282
3402007Colorado4752716211386.210.95276
3412011Stanford451187393016.20.94274
3422007Maryland4151413271795.1-0.1272
3432007Boise State4281714352194.72-0.52271
3442012Iowa State4751814151026.281.01267
3452009East Carolina5352417261905.590.25267
3462007Virginia4521811432915.06-0.22267
3472010Clemson3821815321944.79-0.38267
3482012Wisconsin464188312035.07-0.21266
3492012Cincinnati4981316302164.94-0.39258
3502012Bowling Green4111110382804.37-0.88256
3512011Florida341158281845.220.08252
3522011Cincinnati4831716463255.08-0.27246
3532011SMU443156332365.620.32245
3542011Nevada4412515241195.570.28243
3552010Wisconsin3672014231465.50.31243
3562011Temple3871315322284.29-0.95239
3572005Houston415211216.51295.550.27234
3582005Iowa445181024.51136.130.81234
3592009BYU4481814241715.1-0.23233
3602005UCLA411198241376.220.93230
3612005Kent State3181512211405.06-0.08229
3622010Louisville343169382554.82-0.4226
3632009Georgia3882510302046.260.98225
3642010Oregon State3562310302066.591.35223
3652007Southern Mississippi4392417292125.380.04220
3662009Baylor4301610181335.490.16220
3672009Wisconsin3852115362485.520.23220
3682010Hawai'i4452423302104.92-0.44215
3692012Georgia Tech4482316281765.840.47211
3702009Mississippi State332181716826.190.94198
3712009Kentucky336171615965.22-0.03198
3722009Connecticut4041712322136.090.72194
3732007Iowa4261314271974.82-0.58189
3742011Iowa State425171117986.310.92189
3752006West Virginia4251716312165.630.21183
3762006Arizona State3882815352105.70.29175
3772009Northwestern4021817291725.35-0.07172
3782006Vanderbilt2931814261985.920.64170
3792011Tennessee30714915865.970.68169
3802010San Diego State4271810272055.22-0.23166
3812012San Jose State4391815422254.89-0.6159
3822011Oregon State3482811241376.721.32155
3832011Arizona State4502115241796.571.08154
3842006Stanford325147141115.830.47152
3852011South Florida4411612382425.16-0.34151
3862010USC4643015271806.350.83146
3872009Minnesota4011512221645.730.24140
3882009Miami (Florida)380149231925.90.43138
3892012Tulsa4811912513525.04-0.53130
3902012Louisville3822211221765.620.12129
3912010Toledo4531620291974.63-0.93126
3922011Notre Dame409238251556.020.48120
3932010South Carolina4602310412596.260.65104
3942012Houston5102519362405.29-0.3599
3952012SMU5402721241585.41-0.2492
3962010Syracuse368159271854.67-0.9387
3972012North Carolina4241516281995.19-0.4963
3982010UCLA360197251406.490.8254
3992010Penn State351191017865.980.351
4002012Penn State4301510332095.06-0.6744

While you might have expected to see an SEC in first place, I don’t think too many will complain about the Ndamukong Suh Cornhuskers taking the top slot. That was a dominant defense that held up extremely well against several excellent Big 12 passing offenses.

What stands out to you?

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Georgw February 27, 2013 at 6:26 pm

Just a couple of interesting points that you can make in trying to rank a player or figure how something played out; following on from my angle in the previous post; Dennis Dixon had a lower value in his year as a starter at Oregon and a busted ACL yet gets drafted, Darron Thomas had higher values in both of his years as a starter, plus a trip to the National Championship yet wasn’t drafted and didn’t even end up on a team.

His 2011 figure isn’t far off what Mariota achieved this year (admittedly Mariota is a freshman and you wonder where that number projects out to – especially if Chip Kelly had stayed) yet there are enough slights against Thomas’s intangibles (character/off-field issues) and mechanics that people didn’t even take a late round chance on him (yet the numbers seem to suggest maybe that shouldn’t have been the case – e.g. a bit like a Tyrod Taylor or a Greg McElroy who had similar values and were late round picks).

Out of interest is there a general regression or weight that can be applied from Year 1 as a starter to Year 2 in terms of value as very few players seem to have the Aaron Murray style increase in value every year (just from taking a cursory look at a few players)?

Also I may have not quite 100% got this, but the average of the Value I’m figuring is averaging out at 0 given the way I’m assuming you worked this out iteratively? (e.g. some players can have a negative value)?

Reply

Chase Stuart February 27, 2013 at 6:46 pm

Good stuff, George.

On the Value, yes, all quarterbacks sum to zero. Many players therefore have negative value.

Reply

Chase Stuart February 28, 2013 at 10:33 am

Good stuff from Bill Connolly on Smith: one-third of his passes were behind the LOS

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/2/28/4036850/adjusted-completion-percentages-collin-klein-matt-barkley

Reply

George February 28, 2013 at 6:15 pm

Real interesting stuff and in some respects, someone in the comments at the bottom gets somewhat what I was getting at the other night – if you take the pop rocket move to Austin (or someone else) running a jet motion out – how does that affect his numbers (also it’s a low risk pass, if Austin misses the catch it’s incomplete – if he catches it, it probably goes for an easy 10 yards so is that potentially easy value when trying to rank something?).

I know you wouldn’t run that move often during a game but possibly often enough (e.g. the Orange Bowl say 10% of dropbacks). Manziel and Mariota also both potentially project out well being ranked so highly as freshmen (I think statistically both have a drop off next year – gut feeling).

Also an interesting one to look at is Braxton Miller again – 100% completion of passes behind the line (the sack on 10% of dropbacks, poor completion rate beyond 10 yards, and the fact that he often took off than went through progressions in what was a run orientated offense) probably goes someway to explaining why despite going 11-0 he didn’t make the top 50 the other day. The data set might not be complete but it’s an interesting insight. Opta does this kind of thing for a lot of sports – one English Soccer team released a whole season of data to try and encourage the moneyball moment for Soccer (which hasn’t exactly happened yet).

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