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How quaint: a quarterback taking snaps form under center

How quaint: a quarterback taking snaps form under center.

With one game remaining, Peyton Manning has already set the new single-season record with 51 passing touchdowns (two months ago, I projected Manning to finish the season with 52 touchdowns). But all records must be viewed in their environment, and NFL teams are averaging 1.58 touchdown passes per team game this year, the highest average since 1948. In 1984, the year Dan Marino threw 48 touchdowns, teams averaged 1.37 touchdown passes per game.

So which season is more impressive? That’s a complicated question, and one that could be answered in many ways. In my view, the question boils down to which performance was more outstanding; in mathematical terms, we could define that as which season was farthest from the mean.

To make life a little simpler, I’m going to analyze this question on the team level, meaning we will compare “Denver 2013” to “Miami 1984.” Of course, this approach is preferable in many ways, since when we praise Manning we really mean “Manning with his offensive line and his coaching staff throwing to Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas.” And “Marino in 1984” means “Marino and Mark Clayton and Mark Duper and Dwight Stephenson and Ed Newman.”

This season, the Broncos have 51 touchdown passes. The other 31 teams (through 15 games) are averaging 22.8 passing touchdowns, which means Denver is 28.2 touchdowns above average. The standard deviation of the 32 teams in passing touchdowns is 7.4; as a result, we can say that the Broncos are 3.84 standard deviations above average, also known as their Z-score.

In 1984, the other 27 teams (through 16 games) averaged 21.0 touchdowns, while the Dolphins threw 49 scores (Jim Jenson, a college quarterback who played receiver for Miami, threw a 35-yard touchdown to Duper against the Patriots off a Marino lateral). The standard deviation that season in touchdown passes at the team level was 7.5, which gives Miami a Z-score of 3.72 in 1984.

So the Broncos this season have been more extraordinary, at least by this measure. One nice thing about using the Z-score is we don’t need to adjust for games played. I went ahead and calculated the Z-scores for every team since 1932. The current Broncos are #1, with the ’84 Dolphins in second place. The third place team isn’t the Tom Brady 2007 Patriots; that team is down at #7, because the standard deviation in passing touchdowns among the league’s 32 teams was 8.8 that season. Instead, the third slot goes to the 1986 Dolphins. Few remember that Marino threw 44 touchdowns that season; add in Don Strock’s two touchdowns, a lower league average and a smaller standard deviation, and those Dolphins get a Z-score of 3.70.

Let’s look at the top 100 teams using this metric. The 2004 Colts ranked fifth (if you click on the cell in the team column, the link takes you to that team’s PFR page) in Z-score. That year, Indianapolis threw 51 touchdowns, while the other 31 teams averaged 21.97 touchdown passes. That means Indianapolis was 29.03 touchdowns above average, the highest production above average to date. But that year, the standard deviation among the 32 teams in passing touchdowns was 8.53, giving the Colts a Z-score of “only” 3.41; that’s why they’re 5th, not first.

RkTeamLgYrPass TDLgAvgTDovAvgLgSDZ-ScoreMain Quarterback
1DENNFL20135122.7728.237.363.84Peyton Manning
2MIANFL19844920.9628.047.533.72Dan Marino
3MIANFL19864620267.033.7Dan Marino
4SFONFL19874421236.513.53Joe Montana
5INDNFL20045121.9729.038.533.41Peyton Manning
6STLNFL19994220.7721.236.443.3Kurt Warner
7NWENFL20075021.6128.398.763.24Tom Brady
8OAKNFL19763314.7818.225.73.2Ken Stabler
9BUFNFL19913917.4821.527.053.05Jim Kelly
10BALNFL19593314.9118.095.963.03Johnny Unitas
11GNBNFL20115122.3928.619.622.97Aaron Rodgers
12GNBNFL19963920.2418.766.382.94Brett Favre
13SFONFL19943720.2216.785.882.85Steve Young
14ATLNFL19923317.8915.115.382.81Chris Miller
15HOUNFL19903719.9317.076.182.76Warren Moon
16STLNFL20013719.9317.076.272.72Kurt Warner
17OAKAFL19693617.5618.446.922.67Daryle Lamonica
18SDGNFL19853720.7816.226.112.66Dan Fouts
19GNBNFL19973520.0714.935.632.65Brett Favre
20HOUAFL19614819.1428.8611.062.61George Blanda
21CHINFL1934164124.612.6Gene Ronzani
22NYGNFL19633920.2318.777.232.6Y.A. Tittle
23OAKNFL19742813.9214.085.532.55Ken Stabler
24NORNFL20124323.0319.977.872.54Drew Brees
25NORNFL20114622.5523.459.622.44Drew Brees
26MINNFL19984121.2819.728.222.4Randall Cunningham
27SFONFL19984121.2819.728.222.4Steve Young
28PHINFL19613419.3114.696.132.4Sonny Jurgensen
29SFONFL19722715.0811.924.992.39Steve Spurrier
30GNBNFL19953921.5217.487.362.38Brett Favre
31STLNFL20003719.917.17.332.33Kurt Warner
32CARNFL19993620.9715.036.442.33Steve Beuerlein
33SFONFL19893520.2614.746.332.33Joe Montana
34BALNFL19572513.1811.825.082.33Johnny Unitas
35OAKNFL19702815.9612.045.212.31Daryle Lamonica
36BALNFL19582616.829.183.992.3Johnny Unitas
37SFONFL19653520.9214.086.122.3John Brodie
38SDGNFL19821911.157.853.452.28Dan Fouts
39WASNFL19883319.3713.6362.27Mark Rypien
40SDGNFL19813420.6313.375.92.27Dan Fouts
41PHINFL19903420.0413.966.182.26Randall Cunningham
42NYGNFL1933154.6710.334.62.25Harry Newman
43GNBNFL1938208.1111.895.292.25Bob Monnett
44NYGNFL19623520.3814.626.512.24Y.A. Tittle
45CINNFL20053219.7412.265.512.22Carson Palmer
46SDGNFL20083419.7414.266.422.22Philip Rivers
47NORNFL20083419.7414.266.422.22Drew Brees
48DALNFL19732614.0811.925.472.18Roger Staubach
49GNBNFL1942288.8919.118.82.17Cecil Isbell
50SDGNFL19712314.648.363.892.15John Hadl
51GNBNFL19943320.3712.635.882.15Brett Favre
52GNBNFL20124023.1316.877.872.14Aaron Rodgers
53PHINFL19532514.9110.094.712.14Bobby Thomason
54SFOAAFC19483019.5710.434.882.14Frankie Albert
55BALNFL19963420.4113.596.382.13Vinny Testaverde
56CLENFL19663317.6415.367.242.12Frank Ryan
57PITNFL19782816.311.75.582.1Terry Bradshaw
58RAMNFL19503115.7515.257.272.1Norm Van Brocklin
59NWENFL19793018.8111.195.362.09Steve Grogan
60PHINFL19543316.1816.828.12.08Adrian Burk
61INDNFL20053119.7711.235.512.04Peyton Manning
62NWENFL20103723.0313.976.862.04Tom Brady
63SFONFL19922918.0410.965.382.04Steve Young
64CHINFL1941198.8910.114.982.03Sid Luckman
65SFOAAFC19492812.6715.337.652.01Frankie Albert
66SFONFL19932918.0710.935.452Steve Young
67BUFNFL19752816.211.85.912Joe Ferguson
68WASNFL19752816.211.85.912Billy Kilmer
69INDNFL20063119.911.15.561.99Peyton Manning
70PHINFL20063119.911.15.561.99Donovan McNabb
71GNBNFL20033220.0611.945.991.99Brett Favre
72MINNFL20033220.0611.945.991.99Daunte Culpepper
73MINNFL20043922.3516.658.531.95Daunte Culpepper
74DETNFL19512915.5513.456.891.95Bobby Layne
75RAMNFL19883119.4411.5661.92Jim Everett
76NWENFL19973120.2110.795.631.92Drew Bledsoe
77GNBNFL1936176.2510.755.641.91Arnie Herber
78DETNFL20114122.7118.299.621.9Matthew Stafford
79SFONFL20013220.111.96.271.9Jeff Garcia
80GNBNFL20013220.111.96.271.9Brett Favre
81DALNFL19792918.8510.155.361.89Roger Staubach
82DALNFL19712214.687.323.891.88Roger Staubach
83CHINFL1943289.5618.449.821.88Sid Luckman
84WASNFL193918994.791.88Frank Filchock
85PHINFL19602916136.961.87Norm Van Brocklin
86CHINFL1937178.118.894.781.86Bernie Masterson
87SEANFL19772313.529.485.11.86Jim Zorn
88CHINFL19472917.6711.336.141.84Sid Luckman
89OAKAFL19673319.6313.387.251.84Daryle Lamonica
90BUFNFL19893220.3711.636.331.84Jim Kelly
91CINNFL19893220.3711.636.331.84Boomer Esiason
92MINNFL19752716.2410.765.911.82Fran Tarkenton
93ATLNFL19932818.119.895.451.81Bobby Hebert
94NYYNFL19502915.9213.087.271.8George Ratterman
95CLENFL19552114.456.553.641.8Otto Graham
96MIANFL19943120.4410.565.881.79Dan Marino
97CHINFL1944219.611.46.381.79Sid Luckman
98CLENFL19642819.238.774.911.79Frank Ryan
99INDNFL20003320.0312.977.331.77Peyton Manning
100MINNFL20003320.0312.977.331.77Daunte Culpepper

The 1987 49ers are an interesting group. Joe Montana led the league with 31 touchdown passes, although four of them came in a game against replacement players. Steve Young also chipped in with ten touchdown, and three other players each threw one touchdown. But the league’s teams were tightly packed together that season, which is why the 44 touchdowns the team produced through the air sticks out as a huge outlier.

The Aaron Rodgers 2011 Packers got an assist from Matt Flynn in the season finale to get to 51 touchdowns, but only come in 11th place here because the standard deviation was pretty wide that year. You can type “gnb” in the search box to see all the Packers teams, or “sfo” to marvel at the number of Jerry Rice teams on the list.

Randy Moss deserves a lot of credit for the 2007 Patriots finishing as one of the greatest pass offenses ever. He deserves a lot of blame for the team atop the next table: the worst Z-scores with respect to passing touchdowns since 1932:

RkTeamLgYrPass TDLgAvgTDovAvgLgSDZ-ScoreMain Quarterback
1OAKNFL2006720.68-13.685.56-2.46Andrew Walter
2HOUNFL20021122.03-11.034.58-2.41David Carr
3TAMNFL1995522.69-17.697.36-2.4Trent Dilfer
4KANNFL1979719.67-12.675.36-2.36Steve Fuller
5CHINFL19691120.8-9.84.2-2.33Jack Concannon
6NORNFL1981821.59-13.595.9-2.31Archie Manning
7BUFAFL19651321.43-8.433.7-2.28Jack Kemp
8BDAAAFC1947420.43-16.437.23-2.27Bob Hoernschemeyer
9SFONFL2005820.52-12.525.51-2.27Alex Smith
10PITNFL1945012.11-12.115.45-2.22Buzz Warren
11TAMNFL1977314.26-11.265.1-2.21Gary Huff
12CHINFL1993718.89-11.895.45-2.18Jim Harbaugh
13CARNFL2010923.94-14.946.86-2.18Jimmy Clausen
14DALNFL19641020.62-10.624.91-2.16Don Meredith
15PITNFL19651022.85-12.856.12-2.1Bill Nelsen
16BUFNFL1985921.81-12.816.11-2.1Vince Ferragamo
17DETNFL19691220.73-8.734.2-2.08Bill Munson
18KANNFL2012824.16-16.167.87-2.05Matt Cassel
19GNBNFL1949518.11-13.116.41-2.05Jug Girard
20MIAAAFC19461017.57-7.573.7-2.05Marion Pugh
21CINNFL2000620.93-14.937.33-2.04Akili Smith
22ARINFL20101023.9-13.96.86-2.03Derek Anderson
23BUFNFL1973414.96-10.965.47-2Joe Ferguson
24OAKNFL2003920.81-11.815.99-1.97Rich Gannon
25ATLNFL1974414.88-10.885.53-1.97Bob Lee
26BOSNFL1970716.8-9.85.21-1.88Joe Kapp
27PHINFL1998722.45-15.458.22-1.88Bobby Hoying
28ATLNFL1968919.87-10.875.83-1.86Randy Johnson
29DENNFL1971815.24-7.243.89-1.86Steve Ramsey
30CRDNFL19521018.91-8.914.86-1.83Charlie Trippi
31OAKAFL19621123.57-12.576.91-1.82Cotton Davidson
32SEANFL1992918.78-9.785.38-1.82Stan Gelbaugh
33CHINFL1978717.07-10.075.58-1.81Bob Avellini
34KANNFL1978717.07-10.075.58-1.81Mike Livingston
35RAMNFL1955915.55-6.553.64-1.8Norm Van Brocklin
36GNBNFL1946413.56-9.565.34-1.79Irv Comp
37PITNFL1946413.56-9.565.34-1.79Bill Dudley
38OAKNFL20091022.58-12.587.06-1.78JaMarcus Russell
39GNBNFL1972715.88-8.884.99-1.78Scott Hunter
40GNBNFL1974514.84-9.845.53-1.78John Hadl
41CHINFL1950517.92-12.927.27-1.78Johnny Lujack
42PITNFL19891021.19-11.196.33-1.77Bubby Brister
43GNBNFL1948820.89-12.897.37-1.75Jack Jacobs
44PITNFL1948820.89-12.897.37-1.75Ray Evans
45PHINFL1956614.18-8.184.7-1.74Bobby Thomason
46DALNFL20021421.94-7.944.58-1.73Chad Hutchinson
47ARINFL19941121.19-10.195.88-1.73Steve Beuerlein
48BKNNFL1944312.67-9.675.6-1.73Charlie McGibbony
49BUFAFL1968720.22-13.227.67-1.72Dan Darragh
50DETNFL1960617.92-11.926.96-1.71Jim Ninowski
51CHINFL20051120.42-9.425.51-1.71Kyle Orton
52NYJNFL20051120.42-9.425.51-1.71Brooks Bollinger
53CLENFL1975717.04-10.045.91-1.7Mike Phipps
54SDGNFL1975717.04-10.045.91-1.7Dan Fouts
55CHINFL19681019.8-9.85.83-1.68Jack Concannon
56CHINFL2004923.32-14.328.53-1.68Chad Hutchinson
57ARINFL19991121.8-10.86.44-1.68Jake Plummer
58ARINFL20121124.06-13.067.87-1.66John Skelton
59DENAFL19641425.14-11.146.76-1.65Jacky Lee
60DENAFL19661223.38-11.386.94-1.64John McCormick
61CLENFL20091122.55-11.557.06-1.64Brady Quinn
62BALNFL1982611.63-5.633.45-1.63Mike Pagel
63STLNFL1982611.63-5.633.45-1.63Neil Lomax
64BALNFL19831222.7-10.76.57-1.63Mike Pagel
65NYGNFL19831222.7-10.76.57-1.63Scott Brunner
66BUFNFL20031120.74-9.745.99-1.63Drew Bledsoe
67CLENFL2000920.83-11.837.33-1.62Tim Couch
68INDNFL19931018.78-8.785.45-1.61Jeff George
69DETNFL19891121.15-10.156.33-1.6Bob Gagliano
70BUFAFL19631625.14-9.145.71-1.6Jack Kemp
71KANNFL19811221.44-9.445.9-1.6Bill Kenney
72GNBNFL1977614.15-8.155.1-1.6Lynn Dickey
73NYGNFL1977614.15-8.155.1-1.6Joe Pisarcik
74MINNFL1971915.2-6.23.89-1.59Gary Cuozzo
75PITNFL19471019.78-9.786.14-1.59Johnny Clement
76TENNFL2007922.94-13.948.76-1.59Vince Young
77CINAFL1968820.11-12.117.67-1.58John Stofa
78DETNFL1966819.43-11.437.24-1.58Karl Sweetan
79CLENFL20101323.81-10.816.86-1.58Colt McCoy
80RAMNFL19631122.38-11.387.23-1.57Roman Gabriel
81SDGNFL19971220.86-8.865.63-1.57Craig Whelihan
82HOUAFL19671122.38-11.387.25-1.57Pete Beathard
83GNBNFL1953916.36-7.364.71-1.56Tobin Rote
84NYGNFL19951122.48-11.487.36-1.56Dave M. Brown
85PHINFL19951122.48-11.487.36-1.56Rodney Peete
86CHINFL1967921-127.76-1.55Jack Concannon
87CHINFL1957714.82-7.825.08-1.54Ed Brown
88NYJNFL1976715.74-8.745.7-1.53Joe Namath
89STLNFL2011923.74-14.749.62-1.53Sam Bradford
90SDGNFL19881120.19-9.196-1.53Mark Malone
91CLENFL19581218.09-6.093.99-1.53Milt Plum
92NORNFL1975817-95.91-1.52Archie Manning
93CRDNFL193527.75-5.753.79-1.52Phil Sarboe
94SDGNFL19991221.77-9.776.44-1.52Jim Harbaugh
95CARNFL20021521.9-6.94.58-1.51Rodney Peete
96NYYAAFC1949516.5-11.57.65-1.5Don Panciera
97MINNFL19681119.73-8.735.83-1.5Joe Kapp
98NYJNFL20131324-117.36-1.49Geno Smith
99NYJNFL20091222.52-10.527.06-1.49Mark Sanchez
100STLNFL20091222.52-10.527.06-1.49Marc Bulger

The 2006 Raiders were one of the worst passing teams in history, and their reward was the right to draft JaMarcus Russell. As always, the table is fully sortable and searchable. If you sort by year, you’ll notice that the Geno Smith Jets barely crack the list, as does the version with a rookie Mark Sanchez from four years earlier. I’m not too surprised seeing the 2010 Panthers (which landed them Cam Newton) or the 2012 Chiefs on the list, either. If you type “cle” into the search box, you might be surprised to see only three Browns teams since 2000 on the list. I’ll leave it to you guys to add your thoughts in the comments.

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