There have been four passing touchdown kings in the last 40 years: Fran Tarkenton, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning.  I thought it would be fun to plot the number of career touchdown passes each player had on the Y-Axis after each game of their career (shown on the X-Axis):

[continue reading…]

In 1984, Dan Marino set an NFL record with 48 touchdown passes, but his Dolphins lost in the Super Bowl. Twenty years later, Peyton Manning broke Marino’s record, but he lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots in the playoffs. In 2007, Tom Brady broke Manning’s touchdowns record, but he lost in the Super Bowl, too.

When the greatest quarterback seasons of all time are discussed, these three years dominate the discussion. And with good reason. But if you include the playoffs — and frankly, there’s no reason not to include the playoffs — which quarterback produced the greatest season of all time? I’m going to stipulate that the greatest quarterback season ever has to end in a Lombardi Trophy, because otherwise, I think we’ll end up back in the world of Marino ’84/Brady ’07/Manning ’04. Of course, now another Manning season has entered the mix: and with a Super Bowl win, Manning’s 2013 should and would be remembered as the greatest quarterback season of all time.

So, the question becomes, which season would he knock off the top rung? I think there are six seasons that stand out from the rest, based on regular and postseason performance.

Honorable Mention [continue reading…]

With one game remaining, Peyton Manning has already set the new single-season record with 51 passing touchdowns (two months ago, I projected Manning to finish the season with 52 touchdowns). But all records must be viewed in their environment, and NFL teams are averaging 1.58 touchdown passes per team game this year, the highest average since 1948. In 1984, the year Dan Marino threw 48 touchdowns, teams averaged 1.37 touchdown passes per game.

So which season is more impressive? That’s a complicated question, and one that could be answered in many ways. In my view, the question boils down to which performance was more outstanding; in mathematical terms, we could define that as which season was farthest from the mean.

To make life a little simpler, I’m going to analyze this question on the team level, meaning we will compare “Denver 2013” to “Miami 1984.” Of course, this approach is preferable in many ways, since when we praise Manning we really mean “Manning with his offensive line and his coaching staff throwing to Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas.” And “Marino in 1984” means “Marino and Mark Clayton and Mark Duper and Dwight Stephenson and Ed Newman.”

This season, the Broncos have 51 touchdown passes. The other 31 teams (through 15 games) are averaging 22.8 passing touchdowns, which means Denver is 28.2 touchdowns above average. The standard deviation of the 32 teams in passing touchdowns is 7.4; as a result, we can say that the Broncos are 3.84 standard deviations above average, also known as their Z-score.

In 1984, the other 27 teams (through 16 games) averaged 21.0 touchdowns, while the Dolphins threw 49 scores (Jim Jenson, a college quarterback who played receiver for Miami, threw a 35-yard touchdown to Duper against the Patriots off a Marino lateral). The standard deviation that season in touchdown passes at the team level was 7.5, which gives Miami a Z-score of 3.72 in 1984.

So the Broncos this season have been more extraordinary, at least by this measure. One nice thing about using the Z-score is we don’t need to adjust for games played. I went ahead and calculated the Z-scores for every team since 1932. The current Broncos are #1, with the ’84 Dolphins in second place. The third place team isn’t the Tom Brady 2007 Patriots; that team is down at #7, because the standard deviation in passing touchdowns among the league’s 32 teams was 8.8 that season. Instead, the third slot goes to the 1986 Dolphins. Few remember that Marino threw 44 touchdowns that season; add in Don Strock’s two touchdowns, a lower league average and a smaller standard deviation, and those Dolphins get a Z-score of 3.70.

Let’s look at the top 100 teams using this metric. The 2004 Colts ranked fifth (if you click on the cell in the team column, the link takes you to that team’s PFR page) in Z-score. That year, Indianapolis threw 51 touchdowns, while the other 31 teams averaged 21.97 touchdown passes. That means Indianapolis was 29.03 touchdowns above average, the highest production above average to date. But that year, the standard deviation among the 32 teams in passing touchdowns was 8.53, giving the Colts a Z-score of “only” 3.41; that’s why they’re 5th, not first.
[continue reading…]

Last weekend, I looked at career rushing stats in wins and losses; today I will do the same but for quarterbacks.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all quarterbacks with at least 5,000 career passing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each passer:

– His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
– All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
– His number of career wins, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (which includes a 20-yard bonus for touchdown passes and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions) in wins ^[1]Unfortunately, I excluded sack data from this study due to its general unavailability for most of the covered time period.
– His number of career losses, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt in losses

The table is sorted by AY/A in wins; unsurprisingly, Aaron Rodgers — who is the career leader in that metric — tops this table, too. In fact, Rodgers is also the leader in AY/A in losses. Note that this table includes all games played by the quarterback, not just his starts.

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	PYD	Win	TD%_W	INT%_W	Y/A_W	AY/A_W	Loss	TD%_L	INT%_L	Y/A_L	AY/A_L
1	Aaron Rodgers	2005--2011	gnb	19147	49	7.6%	1.3%	8.7	8.3	27	4.3%	2.5%	7.4	6.4
2	Matt Schaub	2004--2011	atl-htx	17936	48	5.3%	1.7%	8.7	8.1	53	3.5%	3.3%	7.2	5.8
3	Tony Romo	2005--2011	dal	21666	60	6.6%	2.1%	8.7	7.9	43	4.3%	3.4%	7	5.5
4	Kurt Warner	1998--2009	ram-nyg-crd	36296	81	6.8%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	57	3.3%	4.4%	7.2	5.3
5	Daunte Culpepper	1999--2009	min-mia-rai-det	25133	45	7.1%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	64	3.3%	4%	6.9	5.1
6	Bob Berry	1965--1975	min-atl	9197	32	7.4%	2.3%	8.6	7.7	36	4.2%	7.4%	7.1	3.8
7	Steve Young	1985--1999	tam-sfo	36450	125	6.8%	1.7%	8.3	7.6	60	2.9%	4.2%	7.2	5.3
8	Philip Rivers	2004--2011	sdg	26105	69	6.2%	2.3%	8.5	7.6	39	4%	3.1%	7.3	6
9	Ben Roethlisberger	2004--2011	pit	29729	90	5.7%	2.2%	8.4	7.6	38	3.7%	4.9%	7.2	5
10	John Friesz	1990--2000	sdg-was-sea-nwe	8699	19	5%	1%	7.8	7.5	38	2.6%	4%	5.8	4
11	Bart Starr	1960--1971	gnb	22810	99	6.6%	2.9%	8.6	7.5	41	2.4%	5.9%	6.7	4.1
12	Don Meredith	1960--1968	dal	17750	51	8.5%	3.3%	8.8	7.5	50	3.5%	6%	6.2	3.6
13	Drew Brees	2001--2011	sdg-nor	43722	97	6.5%	1.7%	8	7.4	66	3.4%	3.7%	6.7	5.1
14	Ken O'Brien	1984--1993	nyj-phi	25598	56	5.8%	1.7%	8	7.4	72	2.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
15	J.P. Losman	2004--2011	buf-rai-mia	6271	17	5.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.4	28	2.5%	4.4%	6.1	4.1
16	Trent Green	1997--2008	was-ram-kan-mia	28794	59	5.3%	2.1%	8.2	7.3	63	3.6%	3.8%	7.1	5.5
17	Rob Johnson	1995--2003	jax-buf-tam-was-rai	5947	20	4.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.3	25	2.8%	3.6%	6.7	5.1
18	Chad Pennington	2000--2010	nyj-mia	19241	46	5.1%	1.2%	7.7	7.3	49	3.2%	4.1%	6.6	4.9
19	Boomer Esiason	1984--1997	cin-nyj-crd	38520	89	6.6%	2.4%	8.2	7.3	103	3.3%	4.4%	6.5	4.6
20	Neil Lomax	1981--1988	crd	23156	48	6.4%	2.1%	8.1	7.3	59	3%	3.3%	6.6	5.2
21	David Garrard	2002--2010	jax	16489	45	5.3%	1.4%	7.8	7.3	44	2.7%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
22	Matthew Stafford	2009--2011	det	8220	13	8.1%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	17	3.4%	4.4%	6.3	4.4
23	Joe Montana	1979--1994	sfo-kan	46323	140	6.4%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	60	2.7%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
24	Eddie LeBaron	1960--1963	dal	5331	11	12.5%	5.5%	9.4	7.2	31	4.7%	8.7%	7.1	3.3
25	Peyton Manning	1998--2010	clt	60217	150	6.3%	1.9%	8	7.2	77	3.9%	4.1%	6.9	5.2
26	Ed Brown	1960--1965	chi-pit-clt	7723	35	7.7%	5.8%	9.7	7.2	33	2.9%	8.8%	6.5	2.6
27	Wade Wilson	1981--1998	min-atl-nor-dal-rai	18605	66	6.1%	2.6%	8.3	7.2	63	2.4%	5.3%	6.2	3.9
28	Jay Cutler	2006--2011	den-chi	18637	42	6.6%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	38	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.5
29	Josh Freeman	2009--2011	tam	8898	17	5.6%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	24	2.8%	4.6%	6.1	4.1
30	Tom Brady	2000--2011	nwe	45264	140	6.1%	1.6%	7.8	7.2	43	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
31	Matt Moore	2007--2011	car-mia	5137	17	6.2%	1.8%	7.8	7.1	19	2.8%	5%	6.2	4
32	Chris Chandler	1988--2004	clt-tam-crd-ram-oti-atl-chi	29212	72	5.9%	2.6%	8.2	7.1	105	3.1%	4.4%	6.4	4.4
33	Len Dawson	1960--1975	cle-kan	30112	105	8.7%	3.6%	8.6	7.1	64	3.2%	6.3%	6.6	3.8
34	Joe Flacco	2008--2011	rav	15348	49	4.6%	1.2%	7.6	7.1	24	3%	4.4%	5.9	4
35	Trent Edwards	2007--2010	buf-jax	6019	14	4%	1.6%	7.7	7.1	22	2%	4.3%	5.7	3.8
36	Jeff Garcia	1999--2009	sfo-cle-det-phi-tam	26894	63	5.4%	1.3%	7.5	7.1	68	3.4%	3.1%	6.4	5.1
37	Ken Anderson	1971--1986	cin	34159	100	6.2%	2.4%	8	7.1	92	2.7%	4.7%	6.7	4.7
38	Rudy Bukich	1960--1968	pit-chi	7865	30	7.5%	3.5%	8.5	7	35	3.5%	8.6%	6	2.3
39	Troy Aikman	1989--2000	dal	36791	105	4.8%	2.1%	7.9	7	76	2.1%	4.1%	6	4.2
40	Damon Huard	1998--2008	mia-nwe-kan	6349	20	4.9%	1.1%	7.4	7	24	2%	4.3%	5.8	4
41	Jim Everett	1986--1997	ram-nor-sdg	35957	66	5.7%	2.6%	8.1	7	97	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
42	Roger Staubach	1969--1979	dal	25491	106	6.1%	2.5%	8	7	44	3.5%	6.3%	6.7	3.9
43	Bert Jones	1973--1982	clt-ram	18589	47	6.4%	3.1%	8.2	7	58	3.6%	4.6%	6.3	4.3
44	Frank Reich	1985--1998	buf-car-nyj-det	6858	39	8.8%	2.1%	7.7	7	39	3.3%	4.3%	6.3	4.4
45	Jeff Hostetler	1986--1997	nyg-rai-was	17464	70	5.5%	1.9%	7.7	7	40	2.3%	4.1%	6.3	4.5
46	Dan Fouts	1973--1987	sdg	45165	91	5.9%	3.2%	8.3	6.9	95	3.1%	5.5%	7.1	4.7
47	Bill Kenney	1980--1988	kan	17374	37	5.9%	2.5%	8	6.9	49	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
48	Y.A. Tittle	1960--1964	sfo-nyg	11542	40	8.9%	4.3%	8.7	6.9	23	2.5%	6.9%	5.7	2.7
49	Mark Brunell	1994--2011	gnb-jax-was-nor-nyj	33905	99	4.8%	1.8%	7.6	6.9	91	3.2%	2.9%	6.2	4.9
50	Aaron Brooks	2000--2006	nor-rai	20822	41	5.8%	1.6%	7.5	6.9	54	3.3%	4.1%	6.4	4.7
51	Patrick Ramsey	2002--2008	was-nyj-den	5929	16	5.2%	2.3%	7.8	6.9	24	3.1%	3.8%	5.8	4.2
52	Scott Mitchell	1992--2001	mia-det-rav-cin	15925	40	6%	2.1%	7.7	6.9	45	2.6%	4.6%	5.9	3.9
53	Randy Wright	1984--1988	gnb	7106	12	5.4%	3.4%	8.3	6.9	33	2.2%	5.5%	5.9	3.5
54	Rich Gannon	1987--2004	min-was-kan-rai	30434	91	5.5%	1.5%	7.4	6.9	71	3%	3.6%	6.2	4.6
55	Earl Morrall	1960--1976	det-nyg-clt-mia	17529	92	7.9%	4.8%	8.9	6.9	44	4.2%	6.9%	6.6	3.6
56	Sonny Jurgensen	1960--1974	phi-was	31546	74	7.7%	3.9%	8.4	6.9	79	4.5%	4.9%	6.8	4.7
57	Steve DeBerg	1978--1998	sfo-den-tam-kan-mia-atl	34752	72	5.4%	2.3%	7.8	6.9	114	3.2%	4.9%	6.4	4.2
58	Steve Beuerlein	1988--2003	rai-dal-crd-jax-car-den	24317	64	5.6%	2.3%	7.8	6.8	66	3.4%	4.2%	6.8	5
59	Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	min-nyg	48806	131	6.8%	2.8%	8	6.8	117	3.6%	5.5%	6.5	4.1
60	John Brodie	1960--1973	sfo	30783	78	6.7%	3.3%	8.2	6.8	79	3.3%	6%	6.1	3.5
61	Doug Flutie	1986--2005	chi-nwe-buf-sdg	15209	48	5.2%	2.4%	7.8	6.8	45	2.9%	3.9%	6	4.3
62	Johnny Unitas	1960--1973	clt-sdg	32335	107	6.3%	3.8%	8.4	6.8	59	2.7%	7.3%	6.5	3.2
63	Joe Namath	1965--1977	nyj-ram	28299	68	6.4%	4%	8.5	6.8	71	3.3%	6.8%	6.5	3.5
64	Matt Ryan	2008--2011	atl	14832	43	6.1%	1.9%	7.5	6.8	22	2.4%	3%	6.1	4.8
65	Craig Erickson	1992--1997	tam-clt-mia	7625	18	4.8%	2.7%	7.9	6.8	34	3.2%	3.9%	6.5	4.8
66	Marc Bulger	2002--2009	ram	23758	42	4.9%	2.6%	7.8	6.8	57	3.1%	3.3%	6.8	5.4
67	Matt Cassel	2005--2011	nwe-kan	11769	42	5.1%	2%	7.6	6.8	30	3.5%	3.3%	5.7	4.3
68	Tom Flores	1960--1969	rai-buf-kan	11960	40	8.3%	3.8%	8.3	6.8	44	2.8%	6.7%	5.7	2.8
69	Phil Simms	1979--1993	nyg	35141	102	5.3%	2.5%	7.7	6.7	72	3%	4.3%	6.4	4.6
70	Derek Anderson	2006--2011	cle-crd-car	9148	21	5.5%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	32	2.7%	4.6%	5.7	3.6
71	Michael Vick	2001--2011	atl-phi	18889	65	5.8%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	51	2.8%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
72	Brett Favre	1991--2010	atl-gnb-nyj-min	77693	201	6.3%	2.2%	7.6	6.7	125	3.2%	4.9%	6.4	4.3
73	Craig Morton	1965--1982	dal-nyg-den	29143	118	6.7%	3.7%	8.2	6.7	82	2.6%	6.5%	6.2	3.4
74	Steve Pelluer	1985--1990	dal-kan	6870	17	3.3%	2.2%	7.6	6.7	26	2.9%	4.7%	6.9	4.8
75	Dan Marino	1983--1999	mia	65871	155	5.7%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	105	4.1%	3.9%	6.8	5.1
76	Donovan McNabb	1999--2011	phi-was-min	40859	106	5.4%	2%	7.4	6.7	74	2.9%	2.6%	6.1	5
77	Dave Krieg	1980--1998	sea-kan-det-crd-chi-oti	40042	113	6.7%	3%	7.9	6.7	98	3%	4.4%	6.5	4.5
78	Warren Moon	1984--2000	oti-min-sea-kan	52195	108	5.5%	2.6%	7.7	6.6	110	3.1%	4.2%	6.8	4.9
79	Jim Kelly	1986--1996	buf	39330	110	6.1%	3.2%	8	6.6	67	3.1%	4.6%	6.6	4.6
80	John Hadl	1962--1977	sdg-ram-gnb-oti	33941	103	7%	3.7%	8.2	6.6	92	3.3%	7.8%	6.1	2.7
81	Bernie Kosar	1985--1996	cle-dal-mia	25254	67	4.8%	1.9%	7.4	6.6	66	3.1%	3.4%	6.6	5.1
82	Jake Delhomme	1999--2011	nor-car-cle-htx	22822	65	5.5%	2.9%	7.8	6.6	45	3.1%	4.2%	6.6	4.8
83	Vince Evans	1977--1995	chi-rai	9511	37	7.1%	3.8%	8.2	6.6	57	2.4%	6%	6.3	3.6
84	John Elway	1983--1998	den	56439	163	5%	2.6%	7.7	6.6	92	2.8%	3.9%	6.3	4.6
85	Drew Bledsoe	1993--2006	nwe-buf-dal	45946	102	5.1%	1.9%	7.4	6.6	99	2.4%	4.2%	5.9	4
86	Jason Campbell	2006--2011	was-rai	14417	32	3.8%	1.7%	7.3	6.6	39	3.3%	2.7%	6.4	5.3
87	Pete Liske	1964--1972	nyj-den-phi	5170	16	7%	2.6%	7.6	6.6	23	2.2%	8.2%	5.9	2.3
88	Jeff George	1990--2001	clt-atl-rai-min-was	28603	48	5.5%	2.7%	7.7	6.6	85	3.2%	2.9%	6.6	5.4
89	Alex Smith	2005--2011	sfo	13038	33	4.4%	1.1%	7	6.6	39	2.9%	4.3%	6	4.1
90	Jim Zorn	1976--1987	sea-gnb-tam	21249	52	4.9%	2.9%	7.8	6.6	68	2.8%	5.4%	6.1	3.7
91	Lynn Dickey	1971--1985	oti-gnb	23914	52	6.5%	4.4%	8.4	6.6	76	3.5%	6.6%	7	4.1
92	Jon Kitna	1997--2011	sea-cin-det-dal	30104	56	5.7%	2%	7.4	6.6	86	2.8%	4.7%	6.3	4.3
93	Eric Hipple	1981--1989	det	11009	30	6.3%	3%	7.8	6.6	36	1.8%	5.5%	6.4	4
94	Bob Griese	1967--1980	mia	26559	108	7.4%	3.9%	8.1	6.5	62	3.5%	6.4%	6.4	3.5
95	Chris Miller	1987--1999	atl-ram-den	19789	37	5.7%	2.4%	7.5	6.5	63	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
96	Gus Frerotte	1994--2008	was-det-den-cin-min-mia-ram	21666	58	5.1%	2.7%	7.6	6.5	60	2.5%	4.1%	6.2	4.4
97	Matt Hasselbeck	1999--2011	gnb-sea-oti	35891	91	5.1%	2.4%	7.5	6.5	80	3%	3.4%	6.3	4.8
98	Tarvaris Jackson	2006--2011	min-sea	7239	27	4.5%	3.1%	7.8	6.5	23	2.8%	3.4%	5.8	4.3
99	Jeff Blake	1992--2005	nyj-cin-nor-rav-crd-phi-chi	21711	42	5.1%	2.1%	7.4	6.5	77	3.6%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
100	Tony Eason	1983--1990	nwe-nyj	11703	35	5.1%	2.8%	7.7	6.5	31	3.3%	3.4%	6.7	5.2
101	Jim Harbaugh	1987--2000	chi-clt-rav-sdg	27194	78	4.8%	2.1%	7.3	6.5	93	2.3%	3.6%	6.2	4.6
102	Don Majkowski	1987--1996	gnb-clt-det	12906	34	4.8%	2.8%	7.7	6.5	43	2.6%	4.2%	6	4.2
103	Gary Hogeboom	1982--1989	dal-clt-crd	9598	31	5.1%	2.6%	7.5	6.5	28	2.7%	6.1%	6.7	4
104	Joe Theismann	1974--1985	was	26988	95	6%	2.8%	7.6	6.5	59	2.4%	5.1%	6.3	4.1
105	Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	phi-min-dal-rav	32405	98	6.1%	2.6%	7.6	6.5	73	3.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
106	Byron Leftwich	2003--2010	jax-atl-pit-tam	10439	30	5%	1.6%	7.1	6.5	31	2.6%	3.5%	6.2	4.7
107	Tony Banks	1996--2005	ram-rav-was-htx	15315	43	5.2%	2.2%	7.4	6.5	52	2%	3.7%	5.9	4.3
108	Bobby Hebert	1985--1996	nor-atl	22331	63	5.2%	3%	7.7	6.5	55	3.5%	5%	6.2	4.1
109	Greg Landry	1968--1984	det-clt-chi	16100	55	6.7%	3.9%	8.1	6.5	65	2.5%	4.7%	6.3	4.2
110	Eli Manning	2004--2011	nyg	30095	77	5.5%	2.2%	7.3	6.4	54	3.7%	4.5%	6.7	4.7
111	Jay Fiedler	1998--2005	min-jax-mia-nyj	12499	50	5%	2.6%	7.5	6.4	29	2.5%	5.9%	6	3.4
112	Stan Humphries	1989--1997	was-sdg	18538	55	4.4%	2.3%	7.4	6.4	39	2.2%	5.1%	5.9	3.7
113	Jim Plunkett	1971--1986	nwe-sfo-rai	28175	85	5.6%	3.4%	7.9	6.4	82	3.2%	7.1%	6.4	3.2
114	Elvis Grbac	1994--2001	sfo-kan-rav	17492	61	4.8%	2.4%	7.4	6.4	39	3.1%	4.4%	6.2	4.3
115	Richard Todd	1976--1985	nyj-nor	21636	51	5.2%	3.6%	7.9	6.4	70	3.2%	7%	6.2	3.1
116	Steve Grogan	1975--1990	nwe	27457	80	6.7%	4.3%	8.2	6.4	71	3.5%	7.2%	6.8	3.6
117	Frank Ryan	1960--1970	ram-cle-was	15833	66	9.3%	4.4%	8.2	6.4	42	4%	6.1%	6.6	3.9
118	Carson Palmer	2004--2011	cin-rai	25659	50	5.9%	2.9%	7.6	6.4	59	3.8%	3.5%	6.9	5.3
119	Shaun Hill	2005--2011	min-sfo-det	6209	18	5.5%	1.8%	7.1	6.4	16	3.2%	2.8%	6.3	5.1
120	Mark Rypien	1988--2001	was-cle-ram-phi-clt	20249	58	5.7%	3.3%	7.7	6.4	47	2.9%	3.6%	6.5	4.9
121	Bubby Brister	1986--2000	pit-phi-nyj-den-min	14801	47	5.7%	2.3%	7.3	6.4	51	1.9%	4.3%	5.9	3.9
122	Kerry Collins	1995--2011	car-nor-nyg-rai-oti-clt	42478	92	4.4%	2.1%	7.2	6.4	113	2.7%	4%	6.1	4.3
123	Steve McNair	1995--2007	oti-rav	33068	100	4.6%	2.1%	7.2	6.4	72	2.6%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
124	Charlie Batch	1998--2011	det-pit	10610	40	5.2%	2.8%	7.5	6.3	37	3.1%	3.4%	6.6	5.1
125	Bill Nelsen	1963--1972	pit-cle	15004	46	6.5%	4.1%	8	6.3	43	3%	7.2%	6.5	3.4
126	Charley Johnson	1961--1975	crd-oti-den	24410	68	7.3%	4.7%	8.3	6.3	70	3%	5.9%	6.3	3.6
127	Steve Bartkowski	1975--1986	atl-ram	24916	60	5.9%	3.1%	7.6	6.3	73	3.5%	5.2%	6.5	4.3
128	Sam Bradford	2010--2011	ram	5676	8	4.1%	1.5%	6.9	6.3	18	1.9%	2.5%	5.6	4.5
129	Gary Danielson	1977--1988	det-cle	14000	42	4.9%	2.9%	7.5	6.3	43	3.5%	5.3%	6.7	4.4
130	Brian Sipe	1974--1983	cle	23896	60	6%	3.2%	7.6	6.3	62	3%	5.4%	6.2	3.8
131	Jay Schroeder	1985--1994	was-rai-cin-crd	20854	71	5.2%	2.7%	7.4	6.3	50	2.7%	5.3%	6.6	4.3
132	Virgil Carter	1968--1976	chi-cin-sdg	5127	21	5.7%	3%	7.5	6.3	24	2.1%	4.7%	5.6	3.5
133	Tommy Kramer	1977--1990	min-nor	25651	64	5.9%	2.8%	7.4	6.3	66	2.9%	5.7%	6.2	3.7
134	Brad Johnson	1994--2008	min-was-tam-dal	30457	102	4.6%	2.1%	7.1	6.2	70	2.9%	3.9%	6.2	4.5
135	Kelly Holcomb	1995--2007	tam-clt-cle-buf-min	6453	9	5.5%	3.4%	7.7	6.2	29	4%	4.5%	6.5	4.6
136	Quincy Carter	2001--2004	dal-nyj	6491	20	4.7%	2.2%	7.1	6.2	18	1.8%	5.3%	5.9	3.5
137	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005--2011	ram-cin-buf	10936	22	6.2%	2.4%	7.2	6.2	34	2.9%	4.5%	5.9	3.9
138	Neil O'Donnell	1991--2003	pit-nyj-cin-oti	23399	72	5%	2%	7	6.2	58	2.5%	2.3%	6.3	5.4
139	James Harris	1969--1979	buf-ram-sdg	8479	44	5.8%	4.2%	8	6.2	34	1.8%	6.6%	6	3.1
140	Brian Griese	1998--2008	den-mia-tam-chi	19440	53	5.2%	2.8%	7.4	6.2	40	3.3%	4.2%	6.6	4.7
141	Terry Bradshaw	1970--1983	pit	31822	125	7%	4.3%	8	6.2	62	3%	7.3%	6.1	2.9
142	Bill Munson	1964--1979	ram-det-sea-sdg-buf	12940	41	6.4%	2.6%	7.2	6.2	58	2.8%	5%	6.1	3.9
143	Steve Tensi	1966--1970	sdg-den	5558	15	8.5%	4.4%	8	6.1	29	3.5%	5.7%	5.8	3.3
144	Jeff Kemp	1981--1991	ram-sfo-sea-phi	6403	28	6.7%	2.9%	7.3	6.1	26	1.9%	5.5%	6.3	3.8
145	Ty Detmer	1993--2001	gnb-phi-sfo-cle-det	6499	18	4.9%	2.5%	7.1	6.1	24	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.4
146	Billy Wade	1960--1966	ram-chi	11390	34	6.1%	3.5%	7.6	6.1	33	3.8%	6.3%	6.4	3.7
147	Dave M. Brown	1992--2000	nyg-crd	10304	29	4.1%	2.5%	7.2	6.1	42	1.9%	4.2%	5.8	4
148	Mark Sanchez	2009--2011	nyj	10364	30	5.1%	2%	6.9	6.1	22	2.9%	5%	6.2	4
149	Joe Ferguson	1973--1990	buf-det-tam-clt	30631	83	6.4%	3.1%	7.4	6.1	107	3%	5.8%	6.1	3.5
150	Norm Snead	1961--1976	was-phi-min-nyg-sfo	30797	57	6.9%	4.3%	7.9	6.1	114	3.5%	6.7%	6.7	3.7
151	Dennis Shaw	1970--1975	buf-crd	6347	12	5.9%	5.3%	8.4	6.1	34	2.8%	8.1%	6.5	2.9
152	Vince Ferragamo	1977--1986	ram-buf-gnb	12564	35	7.1%	3.7%	7.6	6.1	42	2.9%	7.1%	6.5	3.4
153	Jake Plummer	1997--2006	crd-den	30593	74	4.7%	2.5%	7.1	6.1	75	2.9%	4.8%	6.4	4.3
154	Tommy Maddox	1992--2005	den-ram-nyg-pit	8754	27	5.9%	3.2%	7.4	6.1	28	2.6%	5.3%	6.1	3.7
155	Daryle Lamonica	1963--1974	buf-rai	21082	104	7.8%	4.6%	8	6.1	37	3%	7.3%	6	2.8
156	Kyle Orton	2005--2011	chi-den-kan	14532	36	4.5%	1.9%	6.8	6.1	35	3%	3.1%	6.4	5
157	Roman Gabriel	1962--1977	ram-phi	29780	87	5.7%	2.6%	7.1	6.1	79	3.2%	4%	5.8	4.1
158	Bob Lee	1969--1980	min-atl-ram	5416	60	5.9%	4.8%	8.1	6.1	24	1.2%	6.2%	5	2.3
159	David Carr	2002--2010	htx-car-nyg-sfo	14433	32	3.4%	2.2%	7	6.1	61	2.7%	3.4%	6.2	4.7
160	Jack Trudeau	1986--1995	clt-nyj-car	10494	25	3.2%	2.4%	7.1	6	43	2.3%	5.2%	5.8	3.5
161	Steve Fuller	1979--1986	kan-chi	7454	33	4%	3.5%	7.5	6	29	1.9%	4%	6.2	4.5
162	Danny White	1976--1988	dal	24243	124	5.8%	4%	7.7	6	59	4%	5.3%	6.7	4.4
163	Archie Manning	1971--1984	nor-oti-min	23911	37	4.4%	3.2%	7.4	6	110	3.1%	5.1%	6.3	4.1
164	Ken Stabler	1970--1984	rai-oti-nor	30579	110	6.6%	4.6%	7.9	6	64	3%	7.3%	6.5	3.3
165	Doug Williams	1978--1989	tam-was	18108	49	5.4%	2.8%	7.2	6	45	3.1%	4.8%	6.5	4.4
166	Joe Pisarcik	1977--1984	nyg-phi	5552	25	4.6%	4.1%	7.8	6	32	2.1%	5.7%	5.7	3.1
167	Jim McMahon	1982--1996	chi-sdg-phi-min-crd-gnb	19260	86	4.5%	3.3%	7.4	6	40	2.6%	3.8%	6.4	4.8
168	Milt Plum	1960--1969	cle-det-ram-nyg	13335	46	6.9%	4.9%	8.1	6	40	3.1%	6%	6.3	3.7
169	Ron Jaworski	1974--1989	ram-phi-mia-kan	29859	89	5.4%	2.9%	7.2	6	79	3.4%	4.8%	6.5	4.4
170	Rodney Peete	1989--2004	det-dal-phi-was-car	16636	55	4.3%	3.4%	7.5	6	48	2.2%	4.3%	6.5	4.6
171	Vinny Testaverde	1987--2007	tam-cle-rav-nyj-dal-nwe-car	47553	102	5.3%	3.1%	7.3	6	137	3.3%	4.5%	6.7	4.7
172	Billy Kilmer	1961--1978	sfo-nor-was	21555	88	6.7%	3.7%	7.5	6	81	3.3%	5.9%	6.1	3.5
173	Tim Couch	1999--2003	cle	11131	22	5.5%	3.2%	7.3	6	40	2.7%	4.3%	6	4.1
174	Erik Kramer	1987--1999	atl-det-chi-sdg	16336	38	4.9%	2.4%	7	6	48	3.4%	4.1%	6.5	4.7
175	Trent Dilfer	1994--2007	tam-rav-sea-cle-sfo	21489	68	5.3%	2.7%	7.1	6	65	2%	5.1%	6	3.7
176	Mike Pagel	1982--1993	clt-cle-ram	9593	22	4.5%	2.6%	7.1	6	53	2.9%	4.9%	6	3.8
177	Kordell Stewart	1995--2005	pit-chi-rav	15490	76	3.5%	2.1%	6.8	5.9	54	2.7%	5.6%	5.5	3
178	Chad Henne	2008--2011	mia	7114	14	3.6%	1.7%	6.6	5.9	20	2.4%	4.6%	6.7	4.7
179	Jim Hart	1966--1984	crd-was	35156	93	5.7%	4%	7.6	5.9	103	2.9%	5.5%	6.2	3.8
180	Vince Young	2006--2011	oti-phi	9102	35	4.5%	3%	7.1	5.9	27	2.2%	4.9%	6.5	4.3
181	Josh McCown	2002--2011	crd-det-rai-car-chi	6998	15	4.2%	1.6%	6.5	5.9	36	2.9%	5.2%	6.2	3.9
182	Mark Malone	1981--1989	pit-sdg-nyj	10733	29	6.3%	3%	7.1	5.8	44	2.3%	5.9%	5.8	3.2
183	Babe Parilli	1960--1969	rai-nwe-nyj	18778	64	7.1%	4.1%	7.5	5.8	47	3.2%	7.5%	5.9	2.5
184	Don Strock	1974--1988	mia-cle	5913	37	7.1%	3.6%	7.3	5.8	30	4.5%	7.3%	6.6	3.3
185	Dick Wood	1962--1966	sdg-nyj-rai-mia	7153	17	7.1%	3.4%	7.2	5.8	28	2.6%	7.3%	5.3	2.1
186	Shaun King	1999--2004	tam-crd	5057	19	5.9%	2.3%	6.7	5.8	16	1.1%	4.1%	5.5	3.7
187	Pat Haden	1976--1981	ram	10024	41	4.4%	2.9%	7	5.8	26	3.1%	7.1%	6.4	3.3
188	Bobby Douglass	1969--1978	chi-sdg-nor-gnb	6493	16	6.2%	3.5%	7.2	5.8	57	2.1%	5.8%	5.1	2.5
189	Cotton Davidson	1960--1968	kan-rai	11451	30	6.5%	4.1%	7.5	5.7	40	2.9%	7.2%	6.3	3.1
190	Steve Bono	1985--1999	min-pit-sfo-kan-gnb-ram-car	10576	49	4.6%	1.8%	6.4	5.7	26	2.5%	3.7%	5.7	4.1
191	Marc Wilson	1980--1990	rai-nwe	14526	39	5.8%	4%	7.4	5.7	42	2.8%	5.8%	6.5	3.9
192	Billy Joe Tolliver	1989--1999	sdg-atl-oti-kan-nor	10760	24	5%	2.6%	6.8	5.7	53	3%	4.1%	6.1	4.4
193	Rick Mirer	1993--2003	sea-chi-nyj-sfo-rai	11969	27	3.9%	2.4%	6.6	5.6	52	1.8%	4.4%	5.5	3.5
194	Steve Ramsey	1970--1976	nor-den	6437	23	5.4%	5.9%	8.1	5.6	28	2.4%	6.5%	6.3	3.4
195	Jacky Lee	1960--1969	oti-den-kan	6191	30	9%	7%	8.5	5.5	29	4%	6.9%	6.6	3.6
196	Hugh Millen	1987--1995	ram-atl-nwe-den	6440	8	2.3%	4.2%	7.4	5.5	30	2.4%	3.6%	6.8	5.2
197	Jim Ninowski	1960--1969	det-cle-was-nor	6953	33	4.3%	4.5%	7.5	5.5	27	2.6%	7.4%	6.2	2.9
198	Dave Wilson	1981--1988	nor	7007	16	4.2%	5.2%	7.8	5.5	37	3.1%	5.5%	6.2	3.8
199	Kyle Boller	2003--2011	rav-ram-rai	8931	30	4.1%	1.7%	6.2	5.5	36	2.6%	4.7%	5.7	3.6
200	Joey Harrington	2002--2007	det-mia-atl	14693	27	4.4%	2.2%	6.4	5.5	55	2.5%	3.8%	5.5	3.9
201	Todd Blackledge	1983--1989	kan-pit	5366	22	5.2%	3.4%	6.9	5.5	22	1.7%	5.2%	5.3	2.9
202	Mike Tomczak	1985--1999	chi-gnb-cle-pit	16963	79	3.8%	3.9%	7.1	5.5	59	3.4%	5.3%	6.6	4.2
203	Mike Livingston	1968--1979	kan	11295	37	4.4%	3.2%	6.8	5.5	52	2.4%	5.7%	6.2	3.7
204	Danny Kanell	1996--2003	nyg-atl-den	5328	14	5.3%	2.5%	6.5	5.5	25	2.2%	4%	4.9	3.2
205	Steve Dils	1980--1988	min-ram-atl	5816	18	3.5%	2.6%	6.5	5.4	29	2.4%	3.6%	5.7	4.1
206	Jack Thompson	1979--1984	cin-tam	5329	15	5.3%	1.8%	6.1	5.4	30	3.5%	6.2%	6.3	3.6
207	Kent Graham	1992--2001	nyg-crd-pit-was	7801	27	4.4%	1.6%	6	5.4	33	1.8%	3.1%	5.7	4.3
208	David Woodley	1980--1985	mia-pit	9203	38	4.4%	3.5%	6.9	5.4	24	3%	7.4%	6.3	3.1
209	Randy Johnson	1966--1976	atl-nyg-was-gnb	8329	14	7.8%	4.4%	7.2	5.4	58	3.2%	7.6%	6.3	3
210	Rex Grossman	2003--2011	chi-htx-was	11015	30	4.7%	3.3%	6.8	5.4	27	2.3%	4.3%	6.2	4.3
211	Jim Miller	1995--2002	pit-chi	6410	20	3.9%	2.9%	6.6	5.3	18	3%	3.2%	5.6	4.3
212	Dan Pastorini	1971--1983	oti-rai-ram-phi	19469	62	4.6%	4.2%	7.1	5.3	81	2.5%	6.1%	5.4	2.7
213	Paul McDonald	1980--1984	cle	5550	12	3.8%	3.4%	6.8	5.3	23	2.8%	5.1%	7	4.7
214	George Blanda	1960--1975	oti-rai	22029	142	8.4%	6%	7.8	5.3	79	3.9%	8%	6.1	2.5
215	Jack Kemp	1960--1969	sdg-buf	22256	71	4.6%	5.2%	7.5	5.2	46	2.2%	7.1%	6.2	3
216	David Whitehurst	1977--1983	gnb	6205	21	6.1%	5.3%	7.4	5.1	30	1.1%	5.4%	5.7	3.3
217	Zeke Bratkowski	1960--1971	chi-ram-gnb	8005	30	4.7%	5.5%	7.5	5.1	45	3.5%	8.9%	6.6	2.7
218	Steve Spurrier	1967--1976	sfo-tam	6878	48	6.4%	4.9%	7.1	5.1	53	2.2%	5.2%	5.4	3.1
219	Joe Kapp	1967--1970	min-nwe	6746	26	6.6%	6.2%	7.7	5.1	26	2.2%	8.1%	5.7	2.1
220	Bob Avellini	1975--1984	chi	7288	30	4.2%	5.9%	7.5	5	36	2.3%	6.8%	5.7	2.7
221	Frank Tripucka	1960--1963	den	7676	13	5.1%	5.9%	7.5	5	29	3.3%	6.7%	5.2	2.3
222	Pete Beathard	1964--1973	kan-oti-crd-ram	8544	40	4.5%	5.3%	7.2	4.9	34	2.5%	7.3%	5.6	2.4
223	Gary Cuozzo	1963--1972	clt-nor-min-crd	7688	47	4.6%	3.9%	6.5	4.9	35	2.9%	5.7%	6	3.5
224	Al Dorow	1960--1962	nyj-buf	5732	14	5.7%	5%	6.9	4.8	18	4.7%	8.5%	5.8	2.1
225	Steve Walsh	1989--1999	dal-nor-chi-ram-tam-clt	8248	27	3.9%	3.2%	6.2	4.8	34	2.4%	4.5%	5.9	3.9
226	Mike Phipps	1970--1981	cle-chi	10806	50	4.5%	3.7%	6.4	4.8	51	1.7%	8.4%	5.3	1.6
227	Scott Brunner	1980--1985	nyg-crd	6843	16	3.7%	3.7%	6.3	4.7	29	3%	5.8%	6.2	3.6
228	Jack Concannon	1964--1975	phi-chi-gnb-det	6270	27	4.6%	4.3%	6.5	4.6	32	2.5%	6.8%	5.1	2.1
229	Mike Taliaferro	1964--1972	nyj-nwe-buf	5241	19	8.2%	4.7%	6.3	4.4	41	2.2%	7.2%	5.1	1.9

[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I explained the methodology behind the formula involved in ranking every quarterback season in football history. Today, I’m going to present the career results. Converting season value to career value isn’t as simple as it might seem. Generally, we don’t want a player who was very good for 12 years to rank ahead of a quarterback who was elite for ten. Additionally, we don’t want to give significant penalties to players who struggled as rookies or hung around too long; we’re mostly concerned with the peak value of the player.

What I’ve historically done — and done here — is to give each quarterback 100% of his value or score from his best season, 95% of his score in his second best season, 90% of his score in his third best season, and so on. This rewards quarterbacks who played really well for a long time and doesn’t kill players with really poor rookie years or seasons late in their career. It also helps to prevent the quarterbacks who were compilers from dominating the top of the list. The table below shows the top 150 regular season QBs in NFL history using that formula, along with the first and last years of their careers, their number of career attempts (including sacks and rushing touchdowns), and their career records and winning percentages (each since 1950). For visibility reasons, I’ve shown the top 30 quarterbacks below, but you can change that number in the filter or click on the right arrow to see the remaining quarterbacks.
[continue reading…]

In 2006, I took a stab at ranking every quarterback in NFL history. Two years later, I acquired more data and made enough improvements to merit publishing an updated and more accurate list of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. In 2009, I tweaked the formula again, and published a set of career rankings, along with a set of strength of schedule, era and weather adjustments, and finally career rankings which include those adjustments and playoff performances.

If nothing else, that was three years ago, so the series was due for an update. I’ve also acquired more data, enabling me to tweak the formula to better reflect player performance. But let’s start today with an explanation of the methodology I’m using. To rank a group of players, you need to decide which metric you’re ordering the list by. I’ll get to all of the criteria I’m not using in a little bit, but the formula does use each of the following: pass attempts, passing touchdowns, passing yards, interceptions, sacks, sack yards lost, fumbles, fumbles recovered, rush attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Most importantly, the formula is adjusted for era and league.

So where do we begin? We start with plain old yards per attempt. I then incorporate sack data by removing sack yards from the numerator and adding sacks to the denominator ^[1]I have individual sack data for every quarterback since 1969. For seasons before then, I have team sack data going back to 1949. For seasons before 1950, I ignored sacks; for seasons between 1950 … Continue reading. To include touchdowns and pass attempts, I gave a quarterback 20 yards for each passing touchdown and subtracted 45 yards for each interception. This calculation — (Pass Yards + 20 * PTD – 45 * INT – Sack Yards Lost) / (Sacks + Pass Attempts) forms the basis for Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, one of the key metrics I use to evaluate quarterbacks.

For purposes of this study, I did some further tweaking. I’m including rushing touchdowns, because our goal is to measure quarterbacks as players. There’s no reason to separate rushing and passing touchdowns from a value standpoint, so all passing and rushing touchdowns are worth 20 yards and are calculated in the numerator of Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. To be consistent, I also include rushing touchdowns in the denominator of the equation. This won’t change anything for most quarterbacks, but feels right to me. A touchdown is a touchdown.
[continue reading…]

No, this article isn’t an article about quarterbacks squaring off against ancient Greek mathematicians. Today, we’re going to look at quarterback win-loss records and see how they compare to their Pythagorean win-loss records.

Over 30 years ago, Bill James wrote that, on average, baseball teams’ true strengths could be measured more accurately by looking at runs scored and runs allowed than by looking at wins and losses. Since then, sports statisticians have applied the same thinking to all sports. The formula to calculate a team’s Pythagorean winning percentage is always some variation of:

(Points Scored^2) / (Points Scored ^2 + Points Allowed^2)

With the exponent changing from 2 to whatever number best fits the data for the particular sport. In football, that number is 2.53. We can look, for example, at the Pythagorean records for each team in the league last season, and line it up against their actual record:

[continue reading…]