Bryan Frye, owner and operator of the great site www.thegridfe.com/, is back for another guest post. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.

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I spent a few weeks this offseason parsing out quarterback spike and kneel numbers from post-2002 play by play data. Chase published the findings, which I believe are a useful resource when trying to assess a QB’s stats. ^[1]For instance, 180 of Peyton Manning’s 303 rush attempts since 2002 have been kneels. He has lost 185 yard on those plays. Why in the world should we include those in his total output? … Continue reading Since I have the data available, I thought it would be good to use it.

Regular readers know Chase uses Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt as the primary stat for measuring quarterback performance. ^[2]It’s not perfect, but it’s at least easy to understand and calculate, and is not proprietary like DVOA, ESPN’s QBR, or PFF’s quarterback grades. I am going to do something similar, but I am going to incorporate rushing contribution as well. This is something Chase talked about doing awhile ago, but we didn’t have the kneel or spike data available. ^[3]For another thing Chase wrote on combining rushing and passing data — while (gasp) analyzing Tim Tebow — click here. I’ll call the end product Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). The formula, for those curious: ^[4]I use 25 as the modifier for fumbles based on the idea that a QB fumble is worth roughly -50 yards, and fumble recovery is a 50/50 proposition.

[Yards + Touchdowns*20 – Interceptions*45 – Fumbles*25 + First Downs*9] / Plays, where

Yards = pass yards + rush yards – sack yards + yards lost on kneels
Touchdowns = pass touchdowns + rush touchdowns
First Downs = (pass first downs + rush first downs) – touchdowns
Plays = pass attempts + sacks + rush attempts – spikes – kneels [continue reading…]

The comments to Parts I and II of this series have been great, so let me start with a thank you. One of the more difficult parts of this process is comparing players across eras not just for efficiency, but for gross volume. In 2013, teams averaged 38.0 pass attempts (including sacks) per game, compared to just 24.5 in 1956. A great quarterback will be above average in either era, but it’s easier for great quarterbacks to accumulate above-average value when they play in a high-dropback era.

So what’s the solution? Simply pro-rating the numbers feels a bit too dramatic; we got into a similar issue with True Receiving Yards, and our solution there was to take a (literal) middle ground approach. I thought it would be fun to apply the same philosophy here. Over the course of the 96 league seasons in this study, the average number of league-wide dropbacks per game was 26.1. If we were going to do a 1:1 adjustment, we would then multiply each quarterback’s value in 2013 by 0.687, since that’s the result of 26.1 divided by 38. Instead, I decided to split the baby, and take the average of 0.687 and 1.000, which means modifying the VALUE metric for each quarterback in 2013 by 84.4%. On the other hand, a quarterback in 1956 now gets his VALUE multiplied by 103%, and a passer in 1937 sees his score multiplied by 129.0%.

The table below shows the revised single-season leader list. Here’s how to read it, which will explain why Dan Marino climbs back ahead of Tom Brady into the top spot on the list.  Under the old system, Marino had a value of 2,267 yards above average, but with the modifier, he gets downgraded to an adjusted value of 1981; of course, Brady’s modifier is more severe, which is why Marino vaults him.  Meanwhile, thanks to a 110.3% modifier, Sid Luckman’s 1943 season ^[1]Note that there is already a 25% deflation rate built into all seasons during World War II. Luckman’s numbers that year were insane. The Bears averaged 9.2 ANY/A, while the rest of the seven … Continue reading jumps ahead of Peyton Manning’s 2004 season, which has a modifier of 88.1%.  The table below shows the top 200 single seasons using this formula. [continue reading…]

Yesterday, I explained the methodology behind the formula involved in ranking every quarterback season since 1960. Today, I’m going to present the career results. Converting season value to career value isn’t as simple as it might seem. Generally, we don’t want a player who was very good for 12 years to rank ahead of a quarterback who was elite for ten. Additionally, we don’t want to give significant penalties to players who struggled as rookies or hung around too long; we’re mostly concerned with the peak value of the player.

What I’ve historically done — and done here — is to give each quarterback 100% of his value or score from his best season, 95% of his score in his second best season, 90% of his score in his third best season, and so on. This rewards quarterbacks who played really well for a long time and doesn’t kill players with really poor rookie years or seasons late in their career. It also helps to prevent the quarterbacks who were compilers from dominating the top of the list. For visibility reasons, the table below displays only the top 25 quarterbacks initially, but you can change that number in the filter or click on the right arrow to see the remaining quarterbacks. ^[1]Note that while yesterday’s list was just from 1960 to 2013, the career list reflects every season in history, using the same methodology as used in GQBOAT IV.

Here’s how to read the table. Manning’s first year was in 1998, and his last in 2013. He’s had 8,740 “dropbacks” in his career, which include pass attempts, sacks, and rushing touchdowns. His career value — using the 100/95/90 formula ^[2]And including negative seasons. is 12,769, putting him at number one. His strength of schedule has been perfectly average over his career; as a reminder, the SOS column is shown just for reference, as SOS is already incorporated into these numbers (so while Tom Brady has had a schedule that’s 0.25 ANY/A tougher than average, that’s already incorporated into his 10,063 grade). Manning is not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame, of course, but I’ve listed the HOF status of each quarterback in the table. Note that I only have quarterback records going back to 1960; therefore, for quarterbacks who played before and during (or after) 1960, only their post-1960 record is displayed. In addition, SOS adjustments are only for the years beginning in 1960. [continue reading…]

In 2006, I took a stab at ranking every quarterback in NFL history. Two years later, I acquired more data and made enough improvements to merit publishing an updated and more accurate list of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. In 2009, I tweaked the formula again, and published a set of career rankings, along with a set of strength of schedule, era and weather adjustments, and finally career rankings which include those adjustments and playoff performances.  And two years ago, I revised the formula and produced a new set of career rankings.

This time around, I’m not going to tweak the formula much (that’s for GQBOAT VI), but I do have one big change that I suspect will be well-received.  Let’s review the methodology.

Methodology

We start with plain old yards per attempt. I then incorporate sack data by removing sack yards from the numerator and adding sacks to the denominator. ^[1]I have individual game sack data for every quarterback back to 2008. For seasons between 1969 and 2007, I have season sack data and team game sack data, so I was able to derive best-fit estimates for … Continue reading To include touchdowns and interceptions, I gave a quarterback 20 yards for each passing touchdown and subtracted 45 yards for each interception. This calculation — (Pass Yards + 20 * PTD – 45 * INT – Sack Yards Lost) / (Sacks + Pass Attempts) forms the basis for Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, one of the key metrics I use to evaluate quarterbacks. For purposes of this study, I did some further tweaking. I’m including rushing touchdowns, because our goal is to measure quarterbacks as players. There’s no reason to separate rushing and passing touchdowns from a value standpoint, so all passing and rushing touchdowns are worth 20 yards and are calculated in the numerator of Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. To be consistent, I also include rushing touchdowns in the denominator of the equation. This won’t change anything for most quarterbacks, but feels right to me. A touchdown is a touchdown.

Now, here comes the twist.  In past year, I’ve compared each quarterback’s “ANY/A” — I put that term in quotes because what we’re really using is ANY/A with a rushing touchdowns modifier — and then calculated a value over average statistic after comparing that rate to the league average. For example, if a QB has an “ANY/A” of 7.0 and the NFL average “ANY/A” is 5.0, and the quarterback has 500 “dropbacks” — i.e., pass attempts plus sacks plus rushing touchdowns — then the quarterback gets credit for 1,000 yards above average. [continue reading…]

On Wednesday, I explained the methodology for grading each quarterback in each season. Yesterday, I came up with an all-time career list of the best quarterbacks based on their regular season play. Today, a look at playoff performances.

Using the same formula, we can grade each quarterback in each game and adjust for era ^[1]Note that I do not have individual playoff sack data prior to 2008, so I am using pro-rated sack numbers based on team sack data.. However, it should be obvious that the sample sizes here are incredibly small, and the stats are even less likely to tell the true story when looking at just one game. Strength of schedule becomes a significant factor here, as well. But, caveats aside, there’s a lot we can do with playoff data. For example, we can rank every quarterback performance in Super Bowl history:

Rk	QB	Tm	Opp	SB	W/L	Att	Pyd	TD	INT	CY	CYP	VAL
1	Joe Montana	SFO	MIA	19	W	35	331	3	0	406	11	272
2	Steve Young	SFO	SDG	29	W	36	325	6	0	431	11.1	264
3	Troy Aikman	DAL	BUF	27	W	30	273	4	0	381	12.3	258
4	Joe Montana	SFO	DEN	24	W	29	297	5	0	397	13.3	256
5	Kurt Warner	STL	TEN	34	W	45	414	2	0	447	9.7	225
6	Jim Plunkett	OAK	PHI	15	W	21	261	3	0	320	14.5	219
7	Phil Simms	NYG	DEN	21	W	25	268	3	0	323	12.4	216
8	Doug Williams	WAS	DEN	22	W	29	340	4	1	358	11.6	211
9	John Elway	DEN	ATL	33	W	29	336	1	1	331	11	181
10	Jim McMahon	CHI	NWE	20	W	20	256	0	0	284	11.6	174
11	Joe Montana	SFO	CIN	23	W	36	357	2	0	351	9	165
12	Jake Delhomme	CAR	NWE	38	L	33	323	3	0	325	8.8	146
13	Tom Brady	NWE	CAR	38	W	48	354	3	1	369	7.7	141
14	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	DAL	13	W	30	318	4	1	266	7.8	140
15	Mark Rypien	WAS	BUF	26	W	33	292	2	1	287	8.7	128
16	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	RAM	14	W	21	309	2	3	214	10.2	123
17	Bart Starr	GNB	KAN	1	W	23	250	2	1	224	8.7	121
18	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	DAL	10	W	19	209	2	0	200	9.5	121
19	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	PIT	45	W	39	304	3	0	348	8.3	118
20	Brett Favre	GNB	NWE	31	W	27	246	2	0	268	8.1	111
21	Drew Brees	NOR	IND	44	W	39	288	2	0	321	8	107
22	Ken Stabler	OAK	MIN	11	W	19	180	1	0	183	8.7	103
23	Troy Aikman	DAL	PIT	30	W	23	209	1	0	218	8.7	91
24	Kurt Warner	ARI	PIT	43	L	43	377	3	1	329	7.3	87
25	John Elway	DEN	NYG	21	L	37	304	1	1	270	6.5	81
26	Bart Starr	GNB	OAK	2	W	24	202	1	0	182	6.5	79
27	Joe Montana	SFO	CIN	16	W	22	157	1	0	188	7.8	76
28	Tom Brady	NWE	PHI	39	W	33	236	2	0	259	7.4	75
29	Joe Namath	NYJ	BAL	3	W	28	206	0	0	195	6.5	68
30	Peyton Manning	IND	NOR	44	L	45	333	1	1	308	6.8	67
31	Ken Anderson	CIN	SFO	16	L	34	300	2	2	254	6.4	67
32	Jeff Hostetler	NYG	BUF	25	W	32	222	1	0	234	6.9	66
33	Bob Lee	MIN	OAK	11	L	9	81	1	0	100	10.9	65
34	Roger Staubach	DAL	MIA	6	W	19	119	2	0	140	6.7	63
35	Steve McNair	TEN	STL	34	L	36	214	0	0	208	5.6	61
36	Eli Manning	NYG	NWE	46	W	40	296	1	0	302	7	61
37	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	MIN	9	W	14	96	1	0	104	6.5	59
38	Kurt Warner	STL	NWE	36	L	44	365	1	2	287	6	55
39	Roger Staubach	DAL	PIT	13	L	30	228	3	1	161	4.6	53
40	Jim Kelly	BUF	NYG	25	L	30	212	0	0	205	6.6	52
41	Jim Plunkett	RAI	WAS	18	W	25	172	1	0	174	6.4	48
42	Roger Staubach	DAL	DEN	12	W	25	183	1	0	142	4.8	45
43	Brad Johnson	TAM	OAK	37	W	34	215	2	1	210	6.2	45
44	Earl Morrall	BAL	DAL	5	W	15	147	0	1	102	6.8	43
45	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	ARI	43	W	30	256	1	1	209	6.5	37
46	Bob Griese	MIA	MIN	8	W	7	73	0	0	63	7.9	34
47	Brett Favre	GNB	DEN	32	L	42	256	3	1	240	5.6	34
48	Daryle Lamonica	OAK	GNB	2	L	34	208	2	1	181	4.9	32
49	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	MIA	8	L	28	182	0	1	141	4.5	31
50	Gary Kubiak	DEN	NYG	21	L	4	48	0	0	45	10.2	25
51	Troy Aikman	DAL	BUF	28	W	27	207	0	1	159	5.5	21
52	Tom Brady	NWE	NYG	46	L	41	276	2	1	261	6.1	20
53	Len Dawson	KAN	GNB	1	L	27	211	1	1	135	4.2	19
54	Trent Dilfer	BAL	NYG	35	W	25	153	1	0	154	5.5	17
55	Tom Brady	NWE	STL	36	W	27	145	1	0	154	5.3	14
56	Len Dawson	KAN	MIN	4	W	17	142	1	1	97	4.9	10
57	Gary Kubiak	DEN	SFO	24	L	3	28	0	0	25	6.8	7
58	Frank Reich	BUF	WAS	26	L	1	11	0	0	10	9.4	5
59	Steve Young	SFO	DEN	24	W	3	20	0	0	20	6.5	5
60	Vince Ferragamo	RAM	PIT	14	L	25	212	0	1	127	4.4	4
61	Danny White	DAL	DEN	12	W	2	5	0	0	3	1.1	4
62	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	PIT	40	L	49	273	1	1	234	4.5	3
63	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	GNB	45	L	40	263	2	2	211	5.1	2
64	Bill Musgrave	SFO	SDG	29	W	1	6	0	0	6	5.2	0
65	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	OAK	11	L	35	205	1	2	132	3.7	-4
66	Babe Parilli	NYJ	BAL	3	W	1	0	0	0	0	-0.4	-5
67	Zeke Bratkowski	GNB	KAN	1	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.8	-5
68	Jay Schroeder	WAS	DEN	22	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.6	-6
69	Pete Beathard	KAN	GNB	1	L	5	17	0	0	7	1.3	-6
70	Tony Banks	BAL	NYG	35	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.7	-6
71	Eli Manning	NYG	NWE	42	W	34	255	2	1	182	4.9	-8
72	Bob Griese	MIA	WAS	7	W	11	88	1	1	44	3.4	-8
73	Peyton Manning	IND	CHI	41	W	38	247	1	1	184	4.7	-10
74	John Elway	DEN	GNB	32	W	22	123	0	1	98	4.3	-12
75	Don Strock	MIA	WAS	17	L	3	0	0	0	-3	-0.9	-17
76	Steve Fuller	CHI	NWE	20	W	4	0	0	0	-3	-0.6	-23
77	Ron Jaworski	PHI	OAK	15	L	38	291	1	3	146	3.8	-28
78	Joe Theismann	WAS	MIA	17	W	23	143	2	2	74	2.8	-33
79	Dan Marino	MIA	SFO	19	L	50	318	1	2	219	4.1	-33
80	Elvis Grbac	SFO	SDG	29	W	1	0	0	0	-30	-28.2	-36
81	Johnny Unitas	BAL	NYJ	3	L	24	110	0	1	65	2.7	-37
82	David Woodley	MIA	WAS	17	L	14	97	1	1	28	1.9	-37
83	Donovan McNabb	PHI	NWE	39	L	51	357	3	3	249	4.5	-40
84	Norris Weese	DEN	DAL	12	L	10	22	0	0	-18	-1.6	-42
85	Gale Gilbert	SDG	SFO	29	L	6	30	0	1	-17	-2.7	-44
86	Gary Cuozzo	MIN	KAN	4	L	3	16	0	1	-32	-9.6	-46
87	Johnny Unitas	BAL	DAL	5	W	9	88	1	2	-12	-1.3	-47
88	Tom Brady	NWE	NYG	42	L	48	266	1	0	219	4.1	-53
89	Bob Griese	MIA	DAL	6	L	23	134	0	1	30	1.3	-58
90	Boomer Esiason	CIN	SFO	23	L	25	144	0	1	78	2.6	-65
91	Jim Kelly	BUF	DAL	28	L	50	260	0	1	182	3.4	-66
92	Stan Humphries	SDG	SFO	29	L	49	275	1	2	189	3.7	-67
93	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	SEA	40	W	21	123	0	2	45	2	-67
94	Tony Eason	NWE	CHI	20	L	6	0	0	0	-40	-5.6	-72
95	Roger Staubach	DAL	PIT	10	L	24	204	2	3	37	1.2	-78
96	Chris Chandler	ATL	DEN	33	L	35	219	1	3	91	2.5	-79
97	Joe Kapp	MIN	KAN	4	L	25	183	0	2	39	1.4	-81
98	John Elway	DEN	WAS	22	L	38	257	1	3	93	2.2	-90
99	Rex Grossman	CHI	IND	41	L	28	165	1	2	54	1.9	-90
100	Steve Grogan	NWE	CHI	20	L	30	177	1	2	56	1.6	-105
101	Jim Kelly	BUF	DAL	27	L	7	82	0	2	-72	-9.3	-107
102	Joe Theismann	WAS	RAI	18	L	35	243	0	2	73	1.8	-112
103	Craig Morton	DAL	BAL	5	L	26	127	1	3	-2	-0.1	-112
104	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	PIT	9	L	26	102	0	3	-33	-1.3	-127
105	Earl Morrall	BAL	NYJ	3	L	17	71	0	3	-64	-3.8	-136
106	Frank Reich	BUF	DAL	27	L	31	194	1	2	16	0.5	-137
107	Neil O'Donnell	PIT	DAL	30	L	49	239	1	3	122	2.3	-147
108	Billy Kilmer	WAS	MIA	7	L	28	104	0	3	-48	-1.6	-159
109	Drew Bledsoe	NWE	GNB	31	L	48	253	2	4	74	1.4	-178
110	John Elway	DEN	SFO	24	L	26	108	0	2	-22	-0.7	-182
111	Rich Gannon	OAK	TAM	37	L	44	272	2	5	35	0.7	-212
112	Craig Morton	DEN	DAL	12	L	15	39	0	4	-157	-9	-214
113	Jim Kelly	BUF	WAS	26	L	58	275	2	4	30	0.5	-269
114	Kerry Collins	NYG	BAL	35	L	39	112	0	4	-124	-2.9	-335

If you type Montana’s name into the search box, you can see that he has the 1st, 4th, 11th and 27th best performance in Super Bowl history. The best performance in a losing effort goes to Jake Delhomme, who shredded the Patriots secondary in the second half of Super Bowl XXXVIII (he began the game 1 for 9 for 1 yard). The worst performance in a winning effort, unsurprisingly, goes to Ben Roethlisberger in Super Bowl XL, although Joe Theismann against the Dolphins gets an honorable mention. Worst performance overall goes to Kerry Collins, although Craig Morton’s 4 interceptions and 39 yards on 15 attempts against his former team in Super Bowl XII could give Collins a run for his money.

What about best championship game performances in the pre-Super Bowl era?

Rk	QB	Tm	Opp	Year	W/L	Att	Pyd	TD	INT	CY	CYP	VAL
1	Tobin Rote	DET	CLE	1957	W	19	280	4	0	380	19	304
2	Sid Luckman	CHI	WAS	1943	W	26	286	5	0	386	14.8	248
3	Otto Graham	CLE	RAM	1950	W	33	298	4	1	292	7.7	236
4	Sammy Baugh	WAS	CHI	1937	W	33	335	3	1	320	9.7	228
5	Harry Newman	NYG	CHI	1933	L	19	209	2	1	204	10.7	197
6	Charlie Conerly	NYG	CHI	1956	W	10	195	2	0	232	22.1	192
7	Bart Starr	GNB	NYG	1961	W	17	164	3	0	224	13.2	152
8	Otto Graham	CLE	DET	1954	W	12	163	3	2	193	12.9	135
9	Frank Ryan	CLE	BAL	1964	W	18	206	3	1	212	11.2	132
10	Norm Van Brocklin	RAM	CLE	1951	W	6	128	1	0	148	24.7	129
11	Tobin Rote	SDG	BOS	1963	W	15	173	2	0	226	13.1	127
12	Sid Luckman	CHI	NYG	1941	W	12	160	0	0	160	13.3	125
13	George Blanda	HOU	LAC	1960	W	31	301	3	0	361	11.6	123
14	Charlie Conerly	NYG	BAL	1958	W	14	187	1	0	190	11.6	122
15	Arnie Herber	GNB	NYG	1938	L	14	123	1	0	143	10.2	117
16	Johnny Unitas	BAL	NYG	1959	W	29	264	2	0	267	7.4	115
17	Charlie O'Rourke	CHI	WAS	1942	L	7	128	0	0	128	18.3	105

[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I explained the methodology behind the formula involved in ranking every quarterback season in football history. Today, I’m going to present the career results. Converting season value to career value isn’t as simple as it might seem. Generally, we don’t want a player who was very good for 12 years to rank ahead of a quarterback who was elite for ten. Additionally, we don’t want to give significant penalties to players who struggled as rookies or hung around too long; we’re mostly concerned with the peak value of the player.

What I’ve historically done — and done here — is to give each quarterback 100% of his value or score from his best season, 95% of his score in his second best season, 90% of his score in his third best season, and so on. This rewards quarterbacks who played really well for a long time and doesn’t kill players with really poor rookie years or seasons late in their career. It also helps to prevent the quarterbacks who were compilers from dominating the top of the list. The table below shows the top 150 regular season QBs in NFL history using that formula, along with the first and last years of their careers, their number of career attempts (including sacks and rushing touchdowns), and their career records and winning percentages (each since 1950). For visibility reasons, I’ve shown the top 30 quarterbacks below, but you can change that number in the filter or click on the right arrow to see the remaining quarterbacks.
[continue reading…]

In 2006, I took a stab at ranking every quarterback in NFL history. Two years later, I acquired more data and made enough improvements to merit publishing an updated and more accurate list of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. In 2009, I tweaked the formula again, and published a set of career rankings, along with a set of strength of schedule, era and weather adjustments, and finally career rankings which include those adjustments and playoff performances.

If nothing else, that was three years ago, so the series was due for an update. I’ve also acquired more data, enabling me to tweak the formula to better reflect player performance. But let’s start today with an explanation of the methodology I’m using. To rank a group of players, you need to decide which metric you’re ordering the list by. I’ll get to all of the criteria I’m not using in a little bit, but the formula does use each of the following: pass attempts, passing touchdowns, passing yards, interceptions, sacks, sack yards lost, fumbles, fumbles recovered, rush attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Most importantly, the formula is adjusted for era and league.

So where do we begin? We start with plain old yards per attempt. I then incorporate sack data by removing sack yards from the numerator and adding sacks to the denominator ^[1]I have individual sack data for every quarterback since 1969. For seasons before then, I have team sack data going back to 1949. For seasons before 1950, I ignored sacks; for seasons between 1950 … Continue reading. To include touchdowns and pass attempts, I gave a quarterback 20 yards for each passing touchdown and subtracted 45 yards for each interception. This calculation — (Pass Yards + 20 * PTD – 45 * INT – Sack Yards Lost) / (Sacks + Pass Attempts) forms the basis for Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, one of the key metrics I use to evaluate quarterbacks.

For purposes of this study, I did some further tweaking. I’m including rushing touchdowns, because our goal is to measure quarterbacks as players. There’s no reason to separate rushing and passing touchdowns from a value standpoint, so all passing and rushing touchdowns are worth 20 yards and are calculated in the numerator of Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. To be consistent, I also include rushing touchdowns in the denominator of the equation. This won’t change anything for most quarterbacks, but feels right to me. A touchdown is a touchdown.
[continue reading…]