## Guest Post: Bryan Frye’s Advanced Quarterback Ranking System

Bryan Frye, owner and operator of the great site www.thegridfe.com/, is back for another guest post. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.

I spent a few weeks this offseason parsing out quarterback spike and kneel numbers from post-2002 play by play data. Chase published the findings, which I believe are a useful resource when trying to assess a QB’s stats.1 Since I have the data available, I thought it would be good to use it.

Regular readers know Chase uses Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt as the primary stat for measuring quarterback performance.2 I am going to do something similar, but I am going to incorporate rushing contribution as well. This is something Chase talked about doing awhile ago, but we didn’t have the kneel or spike data available.3 I’ll call the end product Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). The formula, for those curious:4

[Yards + Touchdowns*20 – Interceptions*45 – Fumbles*25 + First Downs*9] / Plays, where

Yards = pass yards + rush yards – sack yards + yards lost on kneels
Touchdowns = pass touchdowns + rush touchdowns
First Downs = (pass first downs + rush first downs) – touchdowns
Plays = pass attempts + sacks + rush attempts – spikes – kneels

There isn’t enough room to include the raw stats and the adjusted stats in the same table, so I have split them into two tables.5 If you don’t care about the inputs as much and want to look at the end results, skip to the next table. If you want to see the ingredients before sating your statistical hunger, you can read this table thus: in 2002, Aaron Brooks of the Saints completed 283 of 528 passes for 3572 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He took 36 sacks, on which he lost 236 yards. He had 0 spikes and gained 165 passing first downs. He turned 62 carries into 253 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had 11 fumbles. He took 6 kneels and lost 6 yards on those kneels, and he gained 21 first downs on the ground.

QuarterbackYearTmCmpAttYdsTDIntSkSkYdSpk1DPRshYdsTDFmbKnKnY1DR
A.J. Feeley2004MIA1913561893111523136010114131104-42
Aaron Brooks2002NOR28352835722715362360165622532116-621
Aaron Brooks2003NOR3065183546248341954172541752148-720
Aaron Brooks2004NOR309542381021164122301775817341312-1214
Aaron Brooks2005NOR2404312882131733202514545281244-319
Aaron Rodgers2008GNB34153640382813342315182562074108-521
Aaron Rodgers2009GNB35054144343075030631975831651014-1525
Aaron Rodgers2010GNB31247539222811311932183643564413-1322
Aaron Rodgers2011GNB3435024643456362192208602573512-1218
Aaron Rodgers2012GNB3715524295398512933211542592513-1720
Aaron Rodgers2013GNB193290253617621117110830120059-109
Aaron Rodgers2014GNB34152043813852817402194326921210-1420
Alex Smith2006SFO257442289016163520241324414721011-1412
Alex Smith2009SFO225372235018122213419824510310-106
Alex Smith2010SFO204342237014102514031031860046-63
Alex Smith2011SFO2734453144175442630147521792718-1613
Alex Smith2013KAN3085083313237392103165764311811-823
Alex Smith2014KAN303464326518645229017549254146-512
Andrew Luck2012IND339627437423184124682086225551019-1523
Andrew Luck2013IND3435703822239322271185633774615-1323
Andrew Luck2014IND380616476140162716102346427331314-1219
Andrew Walter2006OAK14727616773134625618014300131-12
Andy Dalton2011CIN3005163398201324160015637152158-89
Andy Dalton2012CIN32952836692716462293171471204418-1714
Andy Dalton2013CIN36358642933320291821204611832618-1315
Andy Dalton2014CIN30948133981917211240158601694413-1521
Austin Davis2014STL18028420011292917921061636056-71
Ben Roethlisberger2004PIT19629526211711302131130561441226-2612
Ben Roethlisberger2005PIT168268238517923129011131693212-139
Ben Roethlisberger2006PIT280469351318234628051783298258-811
Ben Roethlisberger2007PIT2644043154321147347316835204295-217
Ben Roethlisberger2008PIT28146933011715462843162341012149-108
Ben Roethlisberger2009PIT3375064328261250348120240822715-1616
Ben Roethlisberger2010PIT240389320017532220814933176269-615
Ben Roethlisberger2011PIT3245134077211440269221031700913-116
Ben Roethlisberger2012PIT28444932652683018261672692068-115
Ben Roethlisberger2013PIT3755844261281442282620527991910-125
Ben Roethlisberger2014PIT408608495232933172924033270916-145
Billy Volek2004TEN218357248618103021641201150162-25
Blaine Gabbert2011JAX21041322141211402931109489801414-148
Blaine Gabbert2012JAX162278166296221580721856052-26
Blake Bortles2014JAX2804752908111755345113256419073-327
Brandon Weeden2012CLE2975173385141728186116827111066-511
Brandon Weeden2013CLE141267173199271801801244062-22
Brett Favre2002GNB3415513658271626188018925730106-66
Brett Favre2003GNB30847133613221191370166181505003
Brett Favre2004GNB34654040883017129342021636049-102
Brett Favre2005GNB3726073881202924170120218620105-54
Brett Favre2006GNB343613388518182113421822329189-94
Brett Favre2007GNB356535415528151593319729120916-173
Brett Favre2008NYJ3435223472222230213418421431107-74
Brett Favre2009MIN363531420233734247321197024-41
Brett Favre2010MIN21735825091119221390114178078-81
Brian Griese2002DEN2914363214151534237015637107129-911
Brian Griese2004TAM2333362632201226169312630170613-121
Brian Hoyer2014CLE242438332612132416011632439044-45
Brooks Bollinger2005NYJ1502661558763219317635135031-113
Byron Leftwich2003JAX2394182819141619900135251082110010
Byron Leftwich2004JAX2674412941151025114014039148253-37
Byron Leftwich2005JAX175302212315523110210131672810-107
Cam Newton2011CAR310517405121173526031731267061457-751
Cam Newton2012CAR2804853869191236244216812774181010-1251
Cam Newton2013CAR292473337924134333631691115856311-1545
Cam Newton2014CAR262448312718123830021551035395127-745
Carson Palmer2004CIN263432289718182517861401847128-104
Carson Palmer2005CIN3455093836321219105019734411518-196
Carson Palmer2006CIN32452040352813362334199263701510-106
Carson Palmer2007CIN3735754131262017119321324100516-163
Carson Palmer2009CIN2824663094211326213415839933612-1212
Carson Palmer2010CIN3625863970262026201220532500712-116
Carson Palmer2011OAK199328275313161711921221620123-25
Carson Palmer2012OAK345565401822142619941841836173-37
Carson Palmer2013ARI362572427424224128912042730620-201
Charlie Frye2006CLE2523922454101744262211647215387-617
Chris Simms2005TAM191313203510729205310719310610-92
Christian Ponder2011MIN158291185313133016409128219063-313
Christian Ponder2012MIN30048329351812321840163602532715-1811
Cleo Lemon2007MIA1733091773662516628731102471-116
Colin Kaepernick2013SFO2434163197218392310147925244911-1028
Colin Kaepernick2014SFO289478336919105234401631046391812-1328
Colt McCoy2011CLE26546327331411321731144612120118-917
Damon Huard2007KAN206332225711133623411119-1055-60
Daunte Culpepper2002MIN3335493853182347244118810660910231-146
Daunte Culpepper2003MIN29545434792511371964169734224161-128
Daunte Culpepper2004MIN37954847173911462383224884062910-932
David Carr2002HOU2334442592915764111117592823211-116
David Carr2003HOU1672952013913159028627151244-811
David Carr2004HOU28546635311614493014173732990107-824
David Carr2005HOU25642324881411684243135563081172-320
David Carr2006HOU30244227671112412402141531952168-816
David Garrard2007JAX208325250918321991126491851312-1419
David Garrard2008JAX3355353620151342288218373322278-831
David Garrard2009JAX314516359715104223631707732331415-1531
David Garrard2010JAX23636627342315332531130662795119-928
Derek Anderson2007CLE2985273787291914109818732703513-1212
Derek Anderson2008CLE14228316159814870822555094-35
Derek Anderson2010ARI16932720657102517609752506002
Derek Carr2014OAK3485993270211224149616329920105-510
Donovan McNabb2002PHI211361228917628166010863460664-334
Donovan McNabb2003PHI27547832161611432533152713553911-1026
Donovan McNabb2004PHI3004693875318321920175412203811-1012
Donovan McNabb2005PHI21135725071691911221162555186-67
Donovan McNabb2006PHI180316264718621140211332212334-414
Donovan McNabb2007PHI2914733324197442272152502360911-1016
Donovan McNabb2008PHI3455713916231123149519639147275-511
Donovan McNabb2009PHI267443355322103526421483714021012-1412
Donovan McNabb2010WAS27547233771415372712152291510107-78
Drew Bledsoe2002BUF3756104359241554369121827672114-410
Drew Bledsoe2003BUF2744712860111249371114224292157-85
Drew Bledsoe2004BUF2564502932201637215101442237095-53
Drew Bledsoe2005DAL3004993639231749295517734502179-96
Drew Brees2002SDG3205263284171624180016338130129-1010
Drew Brees2003SDG20535621081115211783952184056-67
Drew Brees2004SDG262400315927718131114153852720-1818
Drew Brees2005SDG323500357624152722331822149185-58
Drew Brees2006NOR3565544418261118105220142320826-285
Drew Brees2007NOR440652442328181610922322352199-88
Drew Brees2008NOR413635506934171392623222-10610-94
Drew Brees2009NOR36351443883411201351210223321012-128
Drew Brees2010NOR4486584620332225185223618-30914-121
Drew Brees2011NOR468657547646142415842782186114-45
Drew Brees2012NOR422670517743192619032661551511-112
Drew Brees2013NOR4466505162391237244124435523719-196
Drew Brees2014NOR456659495233172918662582768179-96
EJ Manuel2013BUF180306197211928159186531862612-2614
Eli Manning2005NYG2945573762241728184017229801912-146
Eli Manning2006NYG3015223244241825186316325210913-155
Eli Manning2007NYG29752933362320272172165296911312-159
Eli Manning2008NYG2894793238211027174116920101513-164
Eli Manning2009NYG3175094021271430216218317650136-74
Eli Manning2010NYG3395394002312516117119232700717-174
Eli Manning2011NYG3595894933291628199021635151921-192
Eli Manning2012NYG321536394826151913601862030059-102
Eli Manning2013NYG317551381818273928101741836078-83
Eli Manning2014NYG379601441030142818712161231176-73
Geno Smith2013NYJ2474433046122143315114372366688-623
Geno Smith2014NYJ2193672525131328175111859238183-318
Gus Frerotte2005MIA2574942996181326158514227610138-126
Gus Frerotte2008MIN178301215712152916411011971410-123
J.P. Losman2006BUF26842930511914473322132381401133-314
Jake Delhomme2003CAR26644932191916231680146423911511-1210
Jake Delhomme2004CAR3105333886291533246019225711126-79
Jake Delhomme2005CAR26243534212416282140153243111212-121
Jake Delhomme2006CAR2634312805171122167012818120614-142
Jake Delhomme2008CAR2464143288151220130115220212513-132
Jake Delhomme2009CAR17832120158182318751001760065-55
Jake Locker2012TEN177314217610112515109341291141-113
Jake Plummer2002ARI28453029721820362481145462832131-121
Jake Plummer2003DEN18930221821571473211437205349-816
Jake Plummer2004DEN3035214089272015903184622021614-1313
Jake Plummer2005DEN2774563366187221351162461512416-2013
Jake Plummer2006DEN17531719941113181111103361121713-1310
JaMarcus Russell2008OAK1983682423138312101111171271122-211
Jason Campbell2007WAS25041727001211211104148361851134-515
Jason Campbell2008WAS3155063245136382663162472581715-1515
Jason Campbell2009WAS32750736182015432852186462361139-1217
Jason Campbell2010OAK1943292387138332083108472221911-1113
Jason Campbell2013CLE18031720151181610428614107031-16
Jay Cutler2007DEN297467349720142715331754420511110-1015
Jay Cutler2008DEN3846164526251811694222572002515-1514
Jay Cutler2009CHI3365553666272635204517040173199-914
Jay Cutler2010CHI261432327423165235201595023211018-1915
Jay Cutler2011CHI18231423191372315901061855175-34
Jay Cutler2012CHI25543430331914382500153412330816-1515
Jay Cutler2013CHI2243552621191219132412523118058-67
Jay Cutler2014CHI370561381228183822301813919121213-1314
Jay Fiedler2002MIA1792922024149138901082899333-312
Jay Fiedler2003MIA179314213811131912611073488375-514
Jeff Blake2002BAL165295208413113020309639106189-89
Jeff Blake2003ARI208367224713151913249630177280012
Jeff Garcia2002SFO3285283344211017932171733533210-930
Jeff Garcia2003SFO2253922704181321104413156319794-523
Jeff Garcia2004CLE1442521731109249907135169294-615
Jeff Garcia2007TAM2093272440134191045112351161410-910
Jeff Garcia2008TAM244376271212623100412535148175-514
Jim Miller2002CHI1803141944139161010981311061-13
Jimmy Clausen2010CAR157299155839332231732357092-22
Joe Flacco2008BAL257428297114123227611435218021118-2516
Joe Flacco2009BAL315499361321123621821863556087-88
Joe Flacco2010BAL3064893622251040294017443841919-1910
Joe Flacco2011BAL31254236102012312030179398811120-2113
Joe Flacco2012BAL3175313817221035227017432223914-1611
Joe Flacco2013BAL3626143912192248324118927131188-711
Joe Flacco2014BAL3445543986271219167619439702612-1317
Joey Harrington2002DET21542922941216875111074022-30
Joey Harrington2003DET3095542880172295541473086068-87
Joey Harrington2004DET27448930471912361965138481750610-109
Joey Harrington2005DET188330202112122413601012480073-33
Joey Harrington2006MIA223388223612151511621131924047-76
Joey Harrington2007ATL2153482215783219201001433003-32
John Skelton2011ARI151275191311142316208228128047-711
Jon Kitna2002CIN2944733178161624159215624574106-89
Jon Kitna2003CIN32452035912615372492181381130918-207
Jon Kitna2006DET37259642082122633882208341562116-79
Jon Kitna2007DET3555614068182051320119625630177-74
Jon Kitna2010DAL2093182365161221100111731147165-76
Josh Freeman2009TAM1582901855101820102389301610103-411
Josh Freeman2010TAM2914743451256281950166683640710-929
Josh Freeman2011TAM34655135921622291646168552384910-925
Josh Freeman2012TAM30655840652717261612185391390109-2416
Josh McCown2004ARI23340825111110312630122361122129-149
Josh McCown2005ARI16327018369111810118429139051-27
Josh McCown2014TAM1843272206111436235498251273101010
Kelly Holcomb2003CLE193302179710122116619487052-20
Kerry Collins2002NYG3355454073191424152119344-3085-50
Kerry Collins2003NYG2845003110131628164315917490123-33
Kerry Collins2004OAK289513349521202514401531636075-53
Kerry Collins2005OAK3025653759201239261018117391136-52
Kerry Collins2008TEN2424152676127860013325490514-124
Kordell Stewart2003CHI12625114187122514656959290373-324
Kurt Warner2004NYG1742772054643919619313301122-35
Kurt Warner2005ARI24237527131192315831341328094-73
Kurt Warner2007ARI2814513417271720140316717151124-41
Kurt Warner2008ARI4015984583301426182322018-201113-131
Kurt Warner2009ARI33951337532614241727191211001112-101
Kyle Boller2004BAL258464255913113524791355318911114-179
Kyle Boller2005BAL17129317991112231462862366182-27
Kyle Boller2007BAL168275174391024159490198905009
Kyle Orton2005CHI190368186991330190092244401211-113
Kyle Orton2008CHI272465297218122716021412449368-118
Kyle Orton2009DEN336541380221122915911852471046-65
Kyle Orton2010DEN29349836532093424321732298044-69
Kyle Orton2014BUF287447301818103319821471514138-102
Marc Bulger2003STL3365323845222237288119329754811-137
Marc Bulger2004STL321485396421144130231801989352-27
Marc Bulger2005STL1922872297149261880109929041-12
Marc Bulger2006STL37058843012484936682111844068-95
Marc Bulger2007STL22137823921115372692129913065-61
Marc Bulger2008STL251440272011133826301211441056-93
Mark Brunell2002JAX245416278817734210214043207052011
Mark Brunell2005WAS262454305023102721311544211101114-1512
Mark Sanchez2009NYJ19636424441220261952123361063108-1315
Mark Sanchez2010NYJ2785073291171327171516230105397-1011
Mark Sanchez2011NYJ30854334742618392433171371036107-713
Mark Sanchez2012NYJ2464532883131834209214622280145-53
Mark Sanchez2014PHI1983092418141123151011734871711-95
Matt Cassel2008NWE32751636932111472193182732702723-2323
Matt Cassel2009KAN27149329241616422434128501890143-36
Matt Cassel2010KAN262450311627726182516333125038-95
Matt Cassel2011KAN1602691713109221201832599055-55
Matt Cassel2012KAN16127717966121910179627145183-312
Matt Hasselbeck2002SEA2674193075151026143115740202153-316
Matt Hasselbeck2003SEA31351338412615422461187361252410-109
Matt Hasselbeck2004SEA2794743382221530155217727901511-105
Matt Hasselbeck2005SEA2944493459249241540182361241415-168
Matt Hasselbeck2006SEA2103712442181534229312518110035-67
Matt Hasselbeck2007SEA3525623966281233204220439890915-158
Matt Hasselbeck2009SEA29348830291717322090146261190112-25
Matt Hasselbeck2010SEA2664443001121729175113623603710-108
Matt Hasselbeck2011TEN3195183571181419153116320520411-124
Matt Leinart2006ARI214377254711122115871242249284-76
Matt Moore2011MIA2103472497169362290122326521411-105
Matt Ryan2008ATL26543434401611171042157551041621-2112
Matt Ryan2009ATL263451291622141992515230491514-149
Matt Ryan2010ATL3575713705289231581199461220419-219
Matt Ryan2011ATL3475664177291226173620537842519-2511
Matt Ryan2012ATL42261547193214282100246341411311-117
Matt Ryan2013ATL439651451526174429812251755057-165
Matt Ryan2014ATL4156284694281431205523029145054-410
Matt Schaub2007HOU192289224199161264971752072-24
Matt Schaub2008HOU2513803043151023149514631682108-119
Matt Schaub2009HOU3965834770291525149523048570318-217
Matt Schaub2010HOU365574437024123222642222228099-87
Matt Schaub2011HOU178292247915616982118159237-73
Matt Schaub2012HOU3505444008221227216020221-90416-190
Matt Schaub2013HOU2193582310101421162011552402001
Matthew Stafford2009DET2013772267132024169711120108242-26
Matthew Stafford2011DET421663503841163625702432278055-56
Matthew Stafford2012DET4357274967201729212426435126464-411
Matthew Stafford2013DET37163446502919231683221376921210-1312
Matthew Stafford2014DET36360242572212452543209439321019-188
Michael Vick2002ATL2314212936168332065139113777898-1145
Michael Vick2004ATL1813212313141246266110312090231614-1849
Michael Vick2005ATL2143872412151333201012610259761111-941
Michael Vick2006ATL204388247420134530301231231039294-455
Michael Vick2010PHI23337230182163421031311006769119-938
Michael Vick2011PHI25342333031814231264155765891106-628
Michael Vick2012PHI20435123621210281532114623321116-720
Mike Glennon2013TAM24741626081994031401262737079-334
Nick Foles2013PHI2033172891272281730129572213415-2216
Nick Foles2014PHI1863112163131097411011668043-36
Patrick Ramsey2003WAS1793372166149302060981562183-33
Peyton Manning2002IND39259142002719231452213381482611-811
Peyton Manning2003IND3795664267291018107021028260610-103
Peyton Manning2004IND336497455749101310122322538059-114
Peyton Manning2005IND305453374728101781019733450518-196
Peyton Manning2006IND36255743973191486424123364217-167
Peyton Manning2007IND3375154040311421124020520-53614-174
Peyton Manning2008IND371555400227121486221020211110-104
Peyton Manning2009IND393571450033161074023719-130216-180
Peyton Manning2010IND450679470033171691025318180315-152
Peyton Manning2012DEN400583465937112113722302360217-202
Peyton Manning2013DEN4506595477551018120128932-3111124-231
Peyton Manning2014DEN3955974727391517118122524-240619-180
Philip Rivers2006SDG284460338822927144116748490822-238
Philip Rivers2007SDG2774603152211522163015729331118-88
Philip Rivers2008SDG3124784009341125151019131840810-1012
Philip Rivers2009SDG317486425428925167220826501610-105
Philip Rivers2010SDG3575414710301338227123429520712-156
Philip Rivers2011SDG3665824624272030198323426361914-156
Philip Rivers2012SDG33852736062615493112184274001515-162
Philip Rivers2013SDG378544447832113015012302872035-55
Philip Rivers2014SDG37957042863118361891213371020812-139
Quincy Carter2003DAL29250533021721371852148682572106-524
Rex Grossman2006CHI262480319323202114211502420818-254
Rex Grossman2011WAS2654583151162025201215920111813-152
Rich Gannon2002OAK41861846892610362141226501563911-1010
Robert Griffin2012WAS25839332002053021721511208157129-1040
Robert Griffin2013WAS27445632031612382742157864890113-324
Rodney Peete2002CAR22338126301514311921114221401011-143
Russell Wilson2012SEA25239331182610332030149944894610-1230
Russell Wilson2013SEA25740733572694427221539653911215-1831
Russell Wilson2014SEA285452347520742242215911884961319-2045
Ryan Fitzpatrick2008CIN2213721905893819321006030421110-1024
Ryan Fitzpatrick2010BUF2554413000231524145115140269084-213
Ryan Fitzpatrick2011BUF35356938322423221483178562150710-1319
Ryan Fitzpatrick2012BUF3065053400241630161217448197189-79
Ryan Fitzpatrick2013TEN2173502454141221109311643225397-715
Ryan Fitzpatrick2014HOU197312248317821831119501842511-1113
Ryan Tannehill2012MIA28248432941213352342151492112916-1316
Ryan Tannehill2013MIA3555883913241758399420440238199-712
Ryan Tannehill2014MIA392590404527124633712245631111014-1418
Shaun Hill2008SFO18128820461382314849924115284-411
Shaun Hill2010DET2574162686161217113313322123031-18
Steve McNair2002TEN30149233872215211210178824403917-1629
Steve McNair2003TEN2504003215247191083164381384127-69
Steve McNair2005TEN2924763161161120134616432139178-812
Steve McNair2006BAL2954683050161214846159451191721-2116
Tarvaris Jackson2007MIN17129419119121970795542603511-1119
Tarvaris Jackson2011SEA2714503091141342293213840108197-77
Teddy Bridgewater2014MIN2594022919141239249513747209137-1113
Terrelle Pryor2013OAK15627217987113120318583576274-427
Tim Couch2002CLE273443284218183021301282377065-59
Tim Rattay2004SFO1983252169101037211110812550111-14
Tim Tebow2011DEN1262711729126332253761226606144-535
Tony Romo2006DAL22033729031913211240143341020911-159
Tony Romo2007DAL33552042113619241760215311292106-68
Tony Romo2008DAL27645034482614201230150284101312-134
Tony Romo2009DAL3475504483269341962203351051618-165
Tony Romo2011DAL346522418431103622742032246179-104
Tony Romo2012DAL4256484903281936263323130491614-225
Tony Romo2013DAL3425353828311035272119420380410-93
Tony Romo2014DAL304435370534929215118926610914-154
Trent Dilfer2005CLE199333232111122313911012046096-42
Trent Edwards2008BUF24537426991110231431132361173910-1311
Trent Green2002KAN2874703690261326141017631225110011
Trent Green2003KAN330523403924122013001982683258-68
Trent Green2004KAN36955645912717322272227258501110-94
Trent Green2005KAN3175074014171032204218235820814-149
Tyler Thigpen2008KAN2304202608181226162412762386365-622
Vince Young2006TEN18435721991213251294107835527125-731
Vince Young2007TEN23838225469172515711419339531015-1724
Vince Young2009TEN152259187910793619155281288-820
Vinny Testaverde2004DAL297495353217203418241632138181-12

The table above is more of a reference point, so I am not going to offer comment on it. However, it is fully sortable and searchable, in case you’re interested.

The following table presents total adjusted yardage values for the 388 qualifying seasons since 2002. It is initially sorted by value above replacement, but you can sort and search as is your wont. You can read the table thus: in 2013, Peyton Manning of the Broncos had 684 action plays for 5349 yards, 56 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 11 fumbles, and 290 first downs. This adds up to 7850 total adjusted yards at a rate of 11.48 per play. His per play rate was 3.34 TAYP/P above average, giving him a value of (3.34 * 684 =) 2283 Total Adjusted Yards over average.6 Using 80% of league average as replacement level, he was 4.97 TAY/P above replacement, giving him (4.97 * 684 =) 3396 Total Adjusted Yards over replacement value. The table below shows all 387 seasons for quarterbacks with at least 300 action plays since 2002. You can change the filter in the dropdown box to view more, or use the search or sort functions.

RkQuarterbackYearTmPlyTYdsTTD1DTAYTAYPTAY/P Ov AvgVALTAY/P Ov RepREPL
1Peyton Manning2013DEN684534956290785011.483.3422834.973396
2Peyton Manning2004IND524450549236659312.584.8625476.43356
4Drew Brees2011NOR694540847283781711.263.1121614.743292
6Peyton Manning2006IND573436335248652511.393.8622095.363072
7Aaron Rodgers2011GNB584469348226686011.753.621015.233053
8Daunte Culpepper2004MIN669489441256692910.362.6417634.182796
9Aaron Rodgers2014GNB581449040239655611.282.8616604.542639
11Philip Rivers2009SDG525414729213582811.13.2517064.822530
12Drew Brees2009NOR543429836218591110.893.0316474.62500
13Peyton Manning2009IND584443133237615710.542.6915714.262488
14Peyton Manning2012DEN608454837232649810.692.4214704.072475
15Philip Rivers2010SDG595455030240628010.552.5515164.152468
16Peyton Manning2005IND485373028203529010.913.5417185.022433
17Drew Brees2008NOR654498534236656810.042.1313963.722431
18Matt Schaub2009HOU633469929237640110.112.2614313.832425
19Philip Rivers2013SDG596440532235630210.572.4314514.062421
20Drew Brees2013NOR70249894225069869.951.8112723.442415
21Ben Roethlisberger2014PIT649482132245674810.41.9712793.662373
22Peyton Manning2003IND60241962921358329.692.4915003.932366
23Brett Favre2009MIN567396633212587210.362.514204.072310
24Drew Brees2012NOR69750034426869199.931.6611553.312307
25Aaron Rodgers2009GNB63244593522262779.932.0813143.652307
27Rich Gannon2002OAK69246412923664099.261.8212573.312288
28Drew Brees2006NOR58643732620658189.932.414043.92287
29Tony Romo2009DAL599440827208602210.052.213193.772259
30Trent Green2003KAN56139982620654739.762.56143642243
32Matt Ryan2012ATL66646613325365969.91.6310883.292190
33Aaron Rodgers2010GNB555409832205570010.272.2612563.862145
34Philip Rivers2008SDG524395234203545810.422.5113144.092143
35Donovan McNabb2004PHI531391334187541010.192.4713104.012130
36Carson Palmer2005CIN54437913320353169.772.4113103.882111
37Peyton Manning2007IND54239283420954039.972.3312613.852089
38Aaron Rodgers2012GNB64142784123163239.861.5910223.252082
39Trent Green2004KAN60144582723157949.641.9211533.462081
40Peyton Manning2014DEN618460339225623210.081.6610243.342066
42Matthew Stafford2011DET71648644124967119.371.228762.852043
43Matt Hasselbeck2005SEA49434452519049259.972.6112874.082015
44Tony Romo2007DAL56941703822354909.652.0111413.532011
45Trent Green2002KAN52737742718751449.762.3212213.812005
46Eli Manning2011NYG63147683021861159.691.549733.172001
47Ben Roethlisberger2009PIT58040782821856339.711.8610793.431990
48Peyton Manning2010IND69846423325564609.261.258712.851989
49Peyton Manning2008IND57739472821456169.731.8310533.411966
50Jay Cutler2008DEN66546722723661589.261.358992.931951
51Drew Brees2014NOR70048433426466539.51.087542.761934
52Steve McNair2003TEN447325128173450110.072.8712844.311928
53Andrew Luck2014IND69348854325365909.511.087502.771918
54Brett Favre2004GNB55540413020453429.631.910563.451914
56Tony Romo2011DAL56740133220756039.881.739823.361906
57Nick Foles2013PHI387296130145440611.393.2512564.871886
58Brett Favre2007GNB56040912820052999.461.8210193.351875
59Trent Green2005KAN55839061719151629.251.8910533.361874
61Kurt Warner2008ARI62644123022158269.311.48762.981866
62Tony Romo2014DAL475356634193504710.632.210443.881845
63Marc Bulger2006STL63939882421656868.91.378732.871836
64Matt Schaub2010HOU61541802422957409.331.338152.931800
65Matt Ryan2011ATL60441133121657339.491.348112.971795
66Jake Plummer2005DEN50734022017547829.432.0710483.541795
67Robert Griffin2012WAS53238082719152999.961.698993.341779
68Matt Ryan2014ATL67946382824063519.350.936292.611774
69Philip Rivers2011SDG62144772824058209.371.227592.851771
70Peyton Manning2002IND63942112922455418.671.237842.721735
73Matt Hasselbeck2003SEA58037302819650278.671.478532.911688
74Daunte Culpepper2003MIN55937062919749038.771.578803.011685
75Ben Roethlisberger2010PIT437316219164447210.232.239733.831673
76Drew Brees2007NOR68043742924058188.560.916212.441660
77Cam Newton2011CAR668450435224601590.855712.481660
78Jake Plummer2004DEN58142142819752459.031.317592.851656
79Cam Newton2012CAR63643782721958569.210.945962.591648
80Michael Vick2010PHI49434933016947999.711.718433.311634
81Josh Freeman2010TAM56036292519552149.311.37302.91627
82Carson Palmer2006CIN56838492820550428.881.347642.851619
83Drew Brees2004SDG45031312915943919.762.049163.581611
84Marc Bulger2004STL54037532418749459.161.447752.981609
85Russell Wilson2014SEA59141022620455849.451.026042.711600
86Carson Palmer2007CIN59740382621652438.781.146802.671593
87David Garrard2007JAX382260919145391310.242.69934.131577
88Jeff Garcia2002SFO60636132420151868.561.116752.61577
89Donovan McNabb2006PHI363272321127375210.342.810184.311565
90Michael Vick2002ATL55435182418448538.761.327292.81554
91Derek Anderson2007CLE55237603219949238.921.287042.81548
92Matt Hasselbeck2007SEA61738662821253178.620.976012.51545
93Tony Romo2012DAL69747112923661498.820.553852.211537
94Matthew Stafford2012DET78348852427567098.570.32331.951528
95Steve McNair2002TEN57837222520749608.581.146572.631518
96Ben Roethlisberger2011PIT56938892121652099.151.015722.641499
97Eli Manning2014NYG63442613121957689.10.674252.361494
98Aaron Rodgers2008GNB61340193220353638.750.845152.421485
99Matt Ryan2008ATL48334611716945249.371.467043.041468
100Eli Manning2009NYG54838772718749028.951.095992.661460
101Donovan McNabb2008PHI62339192520753878.650.744602.321446
102Philip Rivers2006SDG51233162217545288.841.316722.821443
103Russell Wilson2013SEA53036422718448909.231.095762.721439
104Matt Hasselbeck2002SEA48131371617342958.931.487142.971430
105Joe Flacco2014BAL59439022921154309.140.714252.41426
106Kerry Collins2002NYG60739231919350398.30.865202.351424
107Aaron Brooks2003NOR59435332619248378.140.955622.391417
108Matthew Stafford2013DET68145643123358478.590.453042.071413
109Matt Schaub2012HOU57638022220252229.070.84582.451411
110Michael Vick2011PHI51237721918347489.271.125752.751410
111Ben Roethlisberger2007PIT47830133418543329.061.426792.951409
112Tony Romo2013DAL57936033119751678.920.784542.411397
113Matt Ryan2010ATL62036902820853658.650.654002.251393
114Jay Cutler2007DEN52535592119045958.751.115832.641385
115Russell Wilson2012SEA51034163017947579.331.065392.711383
116Andrew Luck2013IND64939852720855998.630.493172.121373
117Tony Romo2006DAL38128961915236639.612.087933.591367
118Drew Bledsoe2002BUF68640612622854497.940.53421.991363
119Ben Roethlisberger2005PIT310233820120318310.272.99004.381357
120Kyle Orton2010DEN54835142018248678.880.874792.481357
121Drew Brees2010NOR68544443323757258.360.352401.951337
122Matt Cassel2008NWE61037672320551958.520.613712.191336
123Drew Brees2005SDG54034072519045178.3615402.471336
124Andy Dalton2013CIN65743073521956138.540.42662.031335
125Kyle Orton2009DEN58737202119050218.550.74122.271334
126Kurt Warner2009ARI53936012619247108.740.894782.461324
127Ben Roethlisberger2004PIT35425781814235099.912.197763.741322
128Jake Delhomme2008CAR44031921715441009.321.416202.991316
129Matt Cassel2010KAN49630682716844879.051.045152.641310
130Jake Plummer2003DEN34223221813032759.582.388143.821306
132Donovan McNabb2009PHI50134432416044478.881.025132.591300
133Ben Roethlisberger2013PIT63740902921054448.550.412592.041296
134Philip Rivers2014SDG63042123122255418.80.372322.051294
135Eli Manning2012NYG56638522618850308.890.623492.271285
136Matt Schaub2011HOU314239717121332810.62.457694.081281
137Colin Kaepernick2013SFO53635002517547658.890.754022.381275
138Jake Delhomme2004CAR58537183020148828.350.623652.171268
139Ben Roethlisberger2012PIT49131862617245109.190.914492.571261
140Cam Newton2013CAR61336433021452398.550.412502.041248
141Steve McNair2005TEN51431741717642758.320.954902.431247
142Jon Kitna2003CIN57534752618845537.920.724152.161243
143Aaron Rodgers2013GNB331254917117339410.252.117003.741239
144Matt Hasselbeck2004SEA51833272318244188.530.814182.351218
146Jeff Garcia2007TAM36624611412234339.381.746363.271195
147Matt Schaub2008HOU42129731715538559.161.255262.831192
149Joe Flacco2009BAL56134592119446968.370.522912.091172
150Matt Ryan2013ATL70442882623057548.170.03241.661170
151Marc Bulger2003STL58636452620045417.750.553241.991167
152Ryan Tannehill2014MIA67740332824257298.460.04241.721165
154Joe Flacco2010BAL55334312618446988.50.492702.091155
156Steve McNair2006BAL50031061717541538.310.773872.281140
157Donovan McNabb2007PHI55433431916845248.170.522902.051137
159Eli Manning2010NYG56939723119647778.40.392211.991132
160Jeff Garcia2003SFO46129242515437758.190.994582.431121
161Brett Favre2003GNB50832393216940427.960.763862.21117
162Kurt Warner2007ARI48132962816840518.420.783752.311110
163Josh Freeman2012TAM61240672720151588.430.16971.811109
164Alex Smith2014KAN55232951918748178.730.31651.991096
165Jake Delhomme2005CAR47532502515438918.190.833932.31092
166Donovan McNabb2003PHI57833281917844197.650.452601.891091
167Brett Favre2002GNB59635492719546317.770.331941.811081
168Brian Griese2002DEN49830931616740478.130.683402.171081
169Eli Manning2008NYG51230902217343148.430.522652.11075
170Andrew Luck2012IND70343982823157258.14-0.13-891.531074
171Carson Palmer2012OAK60238582319150258.350.08461.731042
172David Carr2004HOU57735371619746067.980.261511.811042
173Matthew Stafford2014DET66841142421755418.29-0.13-881.551038
174David Garrard2009JAX61736991820149067.950.1611.671030
175Joe Flacco2012BAL58436282518548938.380.11631.761029
176Donovan McNabb2002PHI44825862314236978.250.813622.31029
177Jeff Garcia2008TAM42527651313937148.740.833532.411025
178Tony Romo2008DAL48633792615440968.430.522532.11021
179Alex Smith2013KAN60935422418849838.180.04261.671018
180Eli Manning2005NYG60236722517845597.570.211261.681012
181Ryan Fitzpatrick2014HOU37125951913235079.451.033812.711006
182Mark Brunell2005WAS50829632316639857.840.482441.95992
184Mark Brunell2002JAX48927851715138917.960.512512979
185David Garrard2008JAX64036621721450157.84-0.07-461.51966
186Jason Campbell2009WAS58535812120346397.930.08461.65964
187Carson Palmer2013ARI61940082420549778.04-0.1-611.53947
188Aaron Brooks2002NOR62035952918646387.480.04221.52945
189Kurt Warner2005ARI40425901113733148.20.843392.31934
190Kerry Collins2005OAK61535422118345557.410.04261.51932
192Jason Campbell2008WAS57332521417745547.950.04231.62929
193Brian Hoyer2014CLE48132091216841688.670.241151.92925
194Michael Vick2006ATL55232142217842487.70.16901.67922
195Alex Smith2011SFO52330761916043258.270.12631.75915
196Carson Palmer2010CIN63038302621149407.84-0.17-1051.44904
197Matt Hasselbeck2011TEN54534821816744538.170.02121.65900
198Marc Bulger2005STL32121391411127878.681.324232.79896
199Ben Roethlisberger2006PIT53433392018941007.680.15781.65882
200Carson Palmer2011OAK35626561412731838.940.792822.42862
202Jay Fiedler2002MIA33020371712028248.561.113672.6859
203Kerry Collins2008TEN43426771213736028.30.391701.97856
204Daunte Culpepper2002MIN70042192823450237.18-0.27-1881.22854
205Brian Griese2004TAM37624922012731658.420.72622.24842
206Jay Cutler2013CHI38526131913233458.690.552112.18838
207Aaron Brooks2004NOR62937722519147217.51-0.22-1361.33835
209Donovan McNabb2005PHI393245617123314580.642512.11830
210Matt Ryan2009ATL48128872316138347.970.12571.69813
211Byron Leftwich2004JAX50229781714739137.790.07371.62812
212Carson Palmer2009CIN51529862417040457.85011.57810
213Joe Flacco2011BAL59235162119246607.87-0.28-1651.35800
214Byron Leftwich2005JAX34420901710828248.210.842912.32797
216Jon Kitna2006DET68539832321749247.19-0.34-2351.16796
217Aaron Brooks2005NOR50029641516437407.480.12581.59794
218Andy Dalton2012CIN60035773118547637.94-0.33-1991.32793
219Drew Bledsoe2005DAL56834032518341357.28-0.08-481.39789
220Trent Edwards2008BUF42226861414334528.180.271151.85782
221Drew Brees2002SDG57932441817342297.3-0.14-811.35781
222Ryan Fitzpatrick2010BUF50031262316439807.96-0.05-241.55777
223Vince Young2009TEN31421321211127488.750.92822.47776
224Colin Kaepernick2014SFO62236772019149667.98-0.44-2751.24773
225Brett Favre2006GNB64637891918646627.22-0.32-2041.19769
226Jon Kitna2002CIN51330842016538197.44001.49764
227Andy Dalton2014CIN54934582317944578.12-0.31-1691.38756
228Jake Delhomme2003CAR50331022015636317.220.02111.46735
229Philip Rivers2007SDG50330302216538077.57-0.07-371.45732
230Jay Cutler2010CHI51631732417440337.82-0.19-991.41728
231Jason Campbell2007WAS46627801316335707.660.0281.55721
232Andy Dalton2011CIN56933982116544047.74-0.41-2331.22694
233Jon Kitna2010DAL36424191712330238.30.31081.9691
234Michael Vick2005ATL51128172116736917.22-0.14-721.33680
235Cam Newton2014CAR58033732320045867.91-0.52-3021.17676
236Robert Griffin2013WAS57534211618144117.67-0.47-2691.16667
237Michael Vick2004ATL47229671715235827.59-0.13-631.41666
238Mark Sanchez2010NYJ55232352017342027.61-0.4-2181.21666
239Matt Schaub2007HOU3162169910125978.220.581822.1665
240Byron Leftwich2003JAX46228371614533237.190-21.44663
241Ryan Fitzpatrick2012BUF57234432518344457.77-0.5-2861.15660
242Jon Kitna2007DET62938181820044917.14-0.5-3161.03645
243Shaun Hill2010DET45126971614135277.82-0.19-841.41638
244Billy Volek2004TEN39223221912530567.80.07291.62634
245David Garrard2010JAX45527692815835497.8-0.21-941.39634
246Jay Cutler2012CHI49730311916839227.89-0.38-1881.28634
247Jake Delhomme2006CAR45726641713033767.39-0.14-661.36622
249Ryan Tannehill2013MIA67337592521649887.41-0.73-4900.9606
250Ryan Fitzpatrick2011BUF63439122419747397.47-0.67-4280.96606
251Vinny Testaverde2004DAL54533891816539727.29-0.43-2361.11605
252Kyle Orton2014BUF48528441914938697.98-0.45-2181.24599
253Jay Cutler2011CHI35022181411028728.210.06201.69590
254Teddy Bridgewater2014MIN47628901515037907.96-0.46-2211.22581
255Carson Palmer2004CIN46127761914434217.42-0.3-1391.24573
256Joe Flacco2008BAL49329001615936927.49-0.42-2071.16573
257Rex Grossman2006CHI50630782315436177.15-0.38-1941.12568
259Tyler Thigpen2008KAN49928382114937207.45-0.45-2261.13563
260Mark Sanchez2014PHI35523631512229568.33-0.1-351.59563
261Kerry Collins2004OAK54933922115639527.2-0.52-2871.02561
262Jay Cutler2014CHI62537933019547687.63-0.8-4990.89555
263Matt Leinart2006ARI40924451313030187.38-0.15-631.35554
264Kyle Orton2008CHI50628722114937547.42-0.49-2471.09553
265Ryan Fitzpatrick2013TEN40425771713131787.87-0.27-1101.36547
267Donovan McNabb2010WAS52932641416039337.43-0.57-3031.03544
268Shaun Hill2008SFO32720171511026127.990.08261.66543
269Jason Campbell2010OAK39524121412130707.77-0.24-931.37540
270Jay Fiedler2003MIA36121051412125887.17-0.03-101.41510
271Brett Favre2005GNB64337782020642976.68-0.68-4380.79509
272Ryan Tannehill2012MIA55032841416741317.51-0.76-4180.89492
273David Carr2003HOU3312082119723917.220.0391.47485
274Eli Manning2006NYG55630942416838356.9-0.63-3530.87485
275Nick Foles2014PHI33221601310727168.18-0.25-821.44478
276Kerry Collins2003NYG53929981316235796.64-0.56-3000.88476
277Quincy Carter2003DAL60233791917239416.55-0.65-3910.79475
278Tarvaris Jackson2007MIN34921121211426057.46-0.18-621.35471
279Matt Hasselbeck2006SEA41523291813229657.14-0.39-1611.12464
280Brett Favre2008NYJ56233092318840147.14-0.77-4300.82459
282Vince Young2006TEN45626291913831957.01-0.53-2400.98447
283Chris Simms2005TAM34818701010924967.17-0.19-671.28446
284Alex Smith2010SFO37622961410628547.59-0.42-1571.18445
285Ben Roethlisberger2008PIT53731281917038427.15-0.75-4050.83445
286Vince Young2007TEN48428011216534037.03-0.61-2960.92444
287Joey Harrington2004DET55830361914738786.95-0.77-4310.77431
288Brandon Weeden2012CLE56533151417941657.37-0.9-5080.76427
289Christian Ponder2012MIN56030222017440937.31-0.96-5380.69388
290Gus Frerotte2005MIA53429111814835316.61-0.75-4020.72385
291Philip Rivers2012SDG58633512618642617.27-1-5850.66384
292Josh Freeman2011TAM61936752019344177.14-1.01-6280.62381
293J.P. Losman2006BUF50928622014634416.76-0.77-3930.73374
294Kurt Warner2004NYG326189179823707.27-0.45-1471.09356
295Jay Cutler2009CHI61636442818442136.84-1.01-6240.56343
296Trent Dilfer2005CLE36922321110325156.82-0.55-2030.92341
297Rex Grossman2011WAS48829761716135127.2-0.95-4650.68330
298Alex Smith2006SFO50628491814433736.67-0.87-4380.64324
299JaMarcus Russell2008OAK41323421412229347.1-0.8-3320.78321
300Mark Sanchez2011NYJ60933413218442897.04-1.11-6740.52319
301Josh McCown2005ARI315187699121746.9-0.46-1461.01318
302Eli Manning2007NYG57132032417438086.67-0.97-5560.55317
303Jim Miller2002CHI34218551310123526.88-0.57-1940.92315
304Patrick Ramsey2003WAS37920251510124946.58-0.62-2330.82312
305Matt Hasselbeck2010SEA48528961514434177.05-0.96-4670.64310
306Michael Vick2012PHI43325481313431727.33-0.94-4090.71307
307Drew Bledsoe2004BUF49427592014733576.8-0.93-4570.62305
308Joey Harrington2007ATL3912059710226946.89-0.75-2940.78303
309Matt Moore2011MIA40423431812729297.25-0.9-3630.73295
310Jason Campbell2013CLE3442019119225337.36-0.78-2670.85293
311Rodney Peete2002CAR42224661511728046.64-0.8-3380.69291
312Jake Locker2012TEN37923171110627977.38-0.89-3370.76289
313Jeff Blake2002BAL35519951410523996.76-0.69-2440.8285
316Austin Davis2014STL32118651210724307.57-0.86-2750.83266
318Tim Couch2002CLE49127111813731826.48-0.96-4730.52258
319Jake Plummer2006DEN35720081211323976.71-0.82-2920.69246
320Alex Smith2009SFO40722771810427966.87-0.98-4000.59239
321Jeff Garcia2004CLE3071807128620836.79-0.94-2880.61187
322Jeff Blake2003ARI41222921510825546.2-1-4110.44182
323Gus Frerotte2008MIN33820121310423166.85-1.06-3570.53178
324David Carr2006HOU52627301315733466.36-1.17-6160.34177
326Damon Huard2007KAN37120281111124386.57-1.07-3970.46170
327Kyle Boller2007BAL314167399920886.65-0.99-3120.54168
328Tarvaris Jackson2011SEA52329131514535736.83-1.32-6890.31163
329Geno Smith2014NYJ45025911413631847.08-1.35-6080.33150
330Matt Schaub2013HOU38421721011626466.89-1.25-4790.38146
331Terrelle Pryor2013OAK3812175911226126.86-1.28-4890.34131
332Joe Flacco2013BAL68037262020045566.7-1.44-9790.19128
333Joey Harrington2005DET37519681210423216.19-1.18-4410.3112
334Tim Rattay2004SFO37220141011224076.47-1.25-4650.29109
335Joey Harrington2006MIA41321511211925796.24-1.29-5320.2290
336Cleo Lemon2007MIA36217101010323026.36-1.28-4650.2489
337Brooks Bollinger2005NYJ331150178920346.15-1.22-4040.2584
338Matt Cassel2012KAN3131843710821526.88-1.39-4370.2681
339EJ Manuel2013BUF37420251310025136.72-1.42-5310.2178
340Mike Glennon2013TAM47423641913031636.67-1.47-6950.1677
341Geno Smith2013NYJ54931031816636506.65-1.49-8180.1475
342Eli Manning2013NYG60035811817739826.64-1.5-9010.1375
343Josh McCown2004ARI46623741313129466.32-1.4-6520.1467
344Marc Bulger2007STL41721421113026086.25-1.39-5790.1458
345Matt Cassel2011KAN3101697108820696.67-1.48-4570.1548
346Colt McCoy2011CLE54727811416136146.61-1.54-8440.0948
347Kelly Holcomb2003CLE3281640109419315.89-1.31-4290.1343
348John Skelton2011ARI3191886119321146.63-1.52-4860.1134
349Matt Hasselbeck2009SEA54429411715134476.34-1.52-8250.0530
350Brett Favre2010MIN38923861111525126.46-1.55-6030.0520
352Drew Brees2003SDG38920201110222595.81-1.39-5400.0520
353Tim Tebow2011DEN41921691811127466.55-1.6-6690.0314
354Mark Sanchez2009NYJ41623681513826256.31-1.54-6410.0312
355Joey Harrington2003DET58129191715433525.77-1.43-8290.017
356Christian Ponder2011MIN34619111310422556.52-1.63-5650-1
357Derek Anderson2010ARI357191479922826.39-1.62-577-0.01-5
358Drew Bledsoe2003BUF53625261314730775.74-1.46-780-0.02-9
359Kyle Boller2005BAL3351721129319505.82-1.54-517-0.07-24
360Marc Bulger2008STL48625071112430346.24-1.67-809-0.08-41
361Joey Harrington2002DET44122261211025785.85-1.6-705-0.11-48
362Charlie Frye2006CLE47424131313327885.88-1.65-782-0.14-68
363Kyle Boller2004BAL52925181414431986.05-1.68-887-0.13-70
364Kordell Stewart2003CHI3271565109317975.5-1.7-556-0.26-86
365Brandon Weeden2013CLE303159798218796.2-1.94-587-0.31-94
366Derek Carr2014OAK64132182117342166.58-1.85-1186-0.16-105
367Blaine Gabbert2012JAX316156297819686.23-2.04-645-0.39-123
368Derek Anderson2008CLE318158698718835.92-1.99-632-0.41-129
369Jake Plummer2002ARI61030082016634975.73-1.71-1044-0.22-136
370Matthew Stafford2009DET41222081511724265.89-1.96-809-0.39-162
371David Carr2005HOU54223751515530155.56-1.8-977-0.33-178
373Josh Freeman2009TAM33419181010018685.59-2.26-755-0.69-230
374Josh McCown2014TAM38320981410823446.12-2.31-883-0.62-238
375Jake Delhomme2009CAR3511893810519665.6-2.25-790-0.68-239
376Mark Sanchez2012NYJ50227071314930316.04-2.23-1121-0.58-290
377Ryan Fitzpatrick2008CIN45820261012425725.62-2.29-1050-0.71-325
378Blake Bortles2014JAX58229851115935976.18-2.25-1307-0.56-326
381Matt Cassel2009KAN57828731613431855.51-2.34-1354-0.77-446
382A.J. Feeley2004MIA38917741210319084.9-2.82-1096-1.27-495
383Kyle Orton2005CHI411173499518034.39-2.98-1224-1.5-618
384Andrew Walter2006OAK334145238213133.93-3.6-1203-2.09-700
385Jimmy Clausen2010CAR352139437514724.18-3.83-1347-2.22-783
386Blaine Gabbert2011JAX48620331211723734.88-3.27-1588-1.64-796
387David Carr2002HOU57724641213325934.49-2.95-1703-1.46-843

To prevent this post from getting too long, I’ll keep my commentary brief and let you provide your thoughts in the comments. A few thoughts:

• The ranking of the replacement column is more easily affected by volume, so, if efficiency is your thing, the value column may be your better choice of sorting options.
• Peyton Manning is very good at picking up first downs. The top four seasons in first down percentage all belong to him. His proclivity for moving the chains plays a significant part in moving him ahead of Aaron Rodgers in the TAY/P stat. Manning’s 2004 is the top rated season on a per-play and total value basis, and it ranks second in replacement value, despite the low volume of action plays. Note that Brady’s ’07 would looks even better with a strength of schedule adjustment.
• Along with Manning’s 2004 (and 2013), Tom Brady’s 2007 is on most people’s shortlist for the title of greatest QB season of all time. It’s no different in the Value column, with those seasons taking the top spots.
• The top of the list comprises the usual suspects. With few exceptions, it’s basically the  Manning-Brady-Drew Brees-Rodgers-Philip Rivers Show. I doubt this surprises anyone.
• Daunte Culpepper’s 2004 season will end up going down in history with Joe Montana’s 19847 and Milt Plum’s 1960 as one of the overlooked great seasons of all time. Of course, because it is overlooked, it will only go down in history in the minds of folks like us.
• You could make an argument that Steve McNair deserved sole possession of the AP MVP award in 2003. He missed a few games, but he outstripped Manning in nearly every rate category. But the counter is that he had only 75% as many action plays as Manning did that year.
• On a national level, Trent Green is generally a footnote in the Kurt Warner biography. However, Green put up tremendous numbers for both the Rams and the Chiefs. He was good in Washington too, and I give him credit for knowing when to get off a sinking ship.
• It will be personally satisfying for me when Tony Romo retires and Cowboys fans get to see what a bad quarterback really looks like.
• It’s hard to believe, but there was a time when Matt Schaub was a good quarterback. This really happened.
• David Carr and Derek Carr both rank in the bottom ten for total value. Both David and Derek are also millionaires, so don’t feel too bad for them.
• Jay Cutler in Denver compared with Jay Cutler in Chicago is like two completely different quarterbacks. His best season for the Bears yielded 211 marginal adjusted yards of value, whereas his last two Broncos seasons were worth 583 and 899, respectively.

That’s all I have to say about that. What do you think?

1. For instance, 180 of Peyton Manning’s 303 rush attempts since 2002 have been kneels. He has lost 185 yard on those plays. Why in the world should we include those in his total output? Similarly, Ben Roethlisberger has spiked the ball 44 times, by far the most in the league since 2002. Why count those 44 “incomplete passes” in his completion rate? []
2. It’s not perfect, but it’s at least easy to understand and calculate, and is not proprietary like DVOA, ESPN’s QBR, or PFF’s quarterback grades. []
3. For another thing Chase wrote on combining rushing and passing data — while (gasp) analyzing Tim Tebow — click here. []
4. I use 25 as the modifier for fumbles based on the idea that a QB fumble is worth roughly -50 yards, and fumble recovery is a 50/50 proposition. []
5. Only QB seasons with at least 300 action plays are included. I doubt anyone wants to see 2006 Ingle Martin’s two kneels for -5 yards taking up space in the table. []
6. Numbers off due to rounding. []
7. You know, to the extent anything Montana did could be overlooked. []
• leo yelverton

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• Bryan Frye

I don’t believe that you are a real person.

• Cotcat

Honestly this stat seems to be about as perfect as it gets – comprehensive, not proprietary, easy to calculate. As far as I know, the only part of the stat which isn’t displayed on PFR is the kneel/kneel yardage data. If there’s a way to do that, so that we could calculate TAY/P on our own, that would be excellent

• Bryan Frye

Thanks, Cotcat. I am hoping to add SOS and weather adjustments, as well as playoff stats. The kneel and spike data is in a table in this link http://www.footballperspective.com/bryan-frye-quarterback-kneels-spikes-and-first-downs-data/, but it is not yet available at PFR. Maybe some day.

• James

I think this is a great goal. The problem is that as you add more adjustments it becomes both more accurate and more opaque. While this formula makes perfect sense for a regular reader here, anyone reading this who isn’t familiar with the prior research is going to be thrown off by 45 yards for interceptions, 9 yards for a first down, etc.

Maybe at some point this offseason it would be worthwhile for Chase to create a new reference tab at the top to list all of the articles where these things were first established or at least explained, like the Approximate Value page at PFR (http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/approximate-value/)? I know the historical archive is there and *I* know to CTRL+F “value of a fumble” and “value of a first down”, but new readers won’t, and some topics like Chase’s ’20 yards for a TD’ research would take a long time to find since it’s on the old PFR blog.

• Tom

James – totally agree. The “bonus yards” concept – 20 for TD, -45 for INT, etc. – is easy to understand, which is great. But I’m sure that some “new” readers would like to see where all this stuff comes from.

• Andrew Healy

Neat stuff. I think the SOS adjustment is the most important thing. And if you do it like SRS, it’s still transparent.

• wouldn’t you need to add false start and delay of game penalties and yardage lost into the equation?

• Bryan Frye

My primary interest is to use stats that anyone can easily find, not to create the next VOA or QBR. While I am happy with my formula, I still wouldn’t put it on par with either of those more granular measurements. One of the best things about TAY/P is how easy it is to calculate.

• sacramento gold miners

Advanced football stats are just like their baseball counterparts, context is so important, since the ultimate goal isn’t numbers, but wins. Manning and Brees would likely tell you their best seasons were really 2006 and 2009 respectively. The 2004 and 2013 versions of Manning really delivered bad performances in the final games of those seasons, and that subtracts slightly from the value of those seasons. I was stunned with Tom Brady’s play in his final game of the 2007, it didn’t look like the same guy who lit up the Giants in the 2007 regular season finale.

A few other thoughts. Culpepper may have been the example of too much, too soon. Great success early, but wasn’t able to respond after the severe knee injury, and lost confidence. Tony Romo’s had a fine career, but his window of opportunity for playoff advancement is closing fast. Only two playoff wins, and he wasn’t significant in the same way Dan Fouts and Warren Moon were. He needs a deep playoff run for his legacy, and serious HOF consideration.

Was never a believer in Matt Schaub, even when the Texans were winning. Always felt he would self-destruct at some point.

Jay Cutler’s career has been disappointing, and proves yet again, playing QB is more than physical tools.

• Bryan Frye

You are right on about the importance of context. That is precisely why you will never hear me say (or see me write) that any statistical measure of QB performance is the correct way to rate QB ability. There are far too many extraneous variables involved. However, I think stats do add a nice tangible context to what we see with our eyes.

At the same time, wins are not a QB stat; they are a team stat. Winning is awesome, and I would wager that most players have that as their professional priority. However, to argue that 04 Manning or 07 Brady didn’t have valuable seasons because their teams failed to win a title (and they didn’t play well in their final games) is, I believe, the wrong direction to go. Were it not for all the value that guys like Manning/Brady/Rodgers.Rivers produce, their teams would never even be in position to choke in the playoffs. Maybe the Pats would, because Belichick is an amazing coach, but I doubt they would go 170-54 with 4 titles and 2 almost titles if they had bad-to-average QB play.

Like it or not, Matt Schaub was once one of the 15 best QBs on the planet. Jay Cutler looked like he was heading that way before being Joshed.

• sacramento gold miners

Agree about 04 Manning and 07 Brady still having valuable seasons, but especially for players of that level, you do need to play better in the final game of the season. Warren Moon and Dan Fouts had stronger games in their final postseason games of different seasons in their career. The more successful teams usually have that good to great QB, and I don’t think that will ever change.

There are QBs like Schaub who will have limited success or Cutler, with a longer track record, but there’s just something missing.

• sn0mm1s

You know, I find the whole “wins are not a QB stat” a bit of a cop out. Especially since most of these stats are based around some modification/enhancement of YPA, NY/A, or ANY/A to begin with. IIRC, the reason guys like Chase (and others) like ANY/A over something like Rating or any other rate stat is that it has a highest correlation to winning out of all the easily calculable stats. If wins are not a QB stat, who cares about the correlation the stat has to winning?

• Richie

“If wins are not a QB stat, who cares about the correlation the stat has to winning?”

Apparently not Chip Kelly.

Rk#353 Tim Tebow 2011 DEN

• Bryan Frye

Having read your comments to this post http://www.footballperspective.com/open-thread-post-your-super-bowl-xlix-reactions-here/, I am well aware of your opinion on the matter. I concede that the influence of a QB on the outcome of a game is proportionally much larger than that of any other position in any other major American team sport. Outside of that, I know that we have fundamental disagreements on how to treat QBWINZ. I am confident that neither of us is going to change the other’s opinion.

• Tom

Caring about the correlation of the stat (TAY/P, ANY/A, etc.) to winning isn’t the same as counting a win as a QB stat. It’s important that we know if a stat correlates with winning, because, among other things, we’re trying to find the QB’s who most help their team win. This has probably been rehashed a million times here and elsewhere, but the last Super Bowl is a perfect example of this. After Brady’s last touchdown drive, the game is out of his hands. He has done what he needed to do to help his team win when they needed it (of course, he hurt his team earlier with two picks as well), and now he sits back and watches. It just doesn’t make any logical sense to me that Brady’s ranking as a QB goes up because Malcolm Butler makes this once-in-a-lifetime interception. It also doesn’t make sense that we would call Brady a 3-time Super Bowl “loser” because Kearse makes this ridiculous catch on his back, and the Beast runs the ball in for the game winning TD. Saying “wins are not a QB stat” isn’t a cop out, it’s the truth. Now, if you want to see how much a QB increased his teams chances of winning, then hop on over to Brian Burke’s website and check out Win Probability.

• Jack

It is interesting that for the most part the Top QB seasons don’t tend to produce Super Bowl wins. The only winner I see in the top 25 or so is Manning ’06. This effect is probably most apparent with Brady, his first SB wins came before he was producing top QB numbers, his most recent SB came with the 71st overall QB year. Yet in the middle he was having historical QB success and coming away empty handed.

A rudimentary theory is that offenses that are too one-dimensional or lean to heavily on perfect QB play can be doomed to failure in the playoffs when weather is worse and defenses and coaching are both theoretically better.

In fact, a lot of the elite QBs are winning their SBs in years which are statistically “down” years for them. Rodgers won in his 4th best year, Manning, his third best, Brady his sixth best, Rivers never.

• Bryan Frye

I want to throw this out there, because it is a small concern to me. Since 2002, Michael Vick has the highest yards per carry of any QB with 750+ pass attempts. His 6.96 YPC is, by a large margin, tops over that time frame. However, 6.96 would rank 34th in passing yards per attempt, tied with Matt Moore. Passing yields more yards per play than does rushing. We all know that, I assume. This means that QBs who run the ball more often will see their total yards per play brought down because a greater percentage of their plays are runs. Basically, I’m trying to say watch out for Simpson’s Paradox without using the term Simpson’s Paradox. Didn’t quite make it, I guess.

• If a QB runs the ball and gains a first down, that will just about always boost his TAY/P (a QB sneak for 1 yard that gets a first down is 10 TAY/P, which is pretty much higher than every QB’s average). So the real issue you are talking about is runs that don’t gain first downs.

Now, we can break that down into scrambles and designed runs. For scrambles, Vick is going to escape the pocket and gain X yards (but not a first down). A pocket passer is going to take a sack (bad), throw an incomplete pass (bad), or gain yards on a completed pass. If a pocket passer does something bad, Vick has the advantage here by being a runner. But if the pocket passer throws for more yards than Vick runs for, he gets the advantage: which, to me, is exactly how the system should work. Scrambling isn’t inherently a good thing, especially when we are talking about scrambles that don’t gain first downs. And again, on probably half (if not more) of plays where a mobile QB is forced to scramble, the pocket passer either (1) made a read earlier and completed a pass, and should be credited for that, or (2) the pocket passer can’t do anything and throws an incomplete pass (and Vick gets more credit than our pocket passer).

It might be a little trickier on designed runs, but there are so few designs runs for QBs that don’t get first downs but are still valuable that I’m not really worried about it. If Vick runs on 2nd and 10 for 6 yards, I don’t see why that should be treated differently than a pocket passer throwing for six yards.

Thoughts?

• James

I agree 100% that the system works the way it should. If two players averaged 8 YPA and 7 YPC, the one with a higher percentage of passes would be the more effective/productive player and graded higher. That said, I’m amused to see Vick’s career YPA and YPC are the same so the question truly becomes “Did a run replace a throw or a sack?” If it was a throw it makes no difference, if it’s a sack then Vick benefits.

As to your last point, there’s little reason to worry about runs that don’t get first downs because that makes it more likely the QB gets the first down bonus on the next play. After all, you get the same TAY for gaining 10 yards and a 1st down, but if it takes you two plays to get there instead of one you are appropriately punished for the opportunity cost by the per play stats. I say little reason to worry because it’s possible it won’t balance out in the long run if a QB is disproportionately “first down blocked” by a RB getting all of the short yardage first downs, a la Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and touchdowns, but that’s unlikely to happen or matter much with a decent sample size.

• Bryan Frye

I think you are looking forward and I am looking backward. Sort of a prescriptive versus descriptive deal. If we’re going by what we think is going to happen in the future based on what has happened in the past, I agree with what you just said to a letter. If we’re just looking at what happened already, my primary concern is the outcome of a play without regard to how it happened. A five yard first down pass is the same as a five yard first down run, and the formula treats them the same.

When you say scrambles that don’t gain first downs are not a good thing, I agree; however, I don’t know that they are necessarily worse than an Alex Smith dumpoff pass that has the exact same result. Frankly, I think they’re both bad. If bad scrambles or bad passes are a part of a QB’s game, I think those both bode poorly for the future. You will get a guy like RG3 who just scrambles for 8 yards on third and 10, or you get a guy like Alex Smith who throws for 8 yards in the same situation.

• Richie

“Similarly, Ben Roethlisberger
has spiked the ball 44 times, by far the most in the league since 2002.
Why count those 44 “incomplete passes” in his completion rate?”

It’s so frustrating that traditional football stats are so simplistic. Didn’t people even consider back in 1950 that, for instance, an interception on a last-second hail mary (if they even attempted such things back then) belongs in a different category than an interception in the red zone midway through the 3rd quarter?

• Richie

“It will be personally satisfying for me when Tony Romo retires and Cowboys fans get to see what a bad quarterback really looks like.”

Do you find Cowboys fans who criticize him? The Cowboys fans I know seem to support him. His detractors are usually those who like to give QB’s all the blame for a team’s lack of postseason success. #QBWINZ

• James

Everyone in my family is a Cowboys fan and I am very tired of explaining every Christmas how the team has lost *despite* Romo playing well in December. I did a gentle “I told you so” when he was #1 in almost every rate stat in Week 16 which was actually received well so I’m hoping that has sufficiently improved his reputation with the generic fan.

• Bryan Frye

Piggybacking on what James said, I don’t know if you just have smarter friends than I have or if Romo haters just happen to be a cacophonous vocal minority. This happened to me in real life: Two years ago, a former coworker who is a Cowboys fan said that she hated Romo because he cannot win and that Dallas should replace him with Tim Tebow. An adult with a full-time job and children said those words.

• I work with a Cowboys fan who always complained about Romo and then one day I just said, “You know, without him, they wouldn’t be in those games to lose them.”
In a very rare moment for a football fan, he actually thought about that and said, “Yeah I think that’s probably true.”

• James

After scanning through the list I wondered how far down you’d have to go before someone other than the “usual suspects” showed up on the list for a second time. As it turns out it’s the 39th season, so among the top 38 here’s who shows up and how many times:

Peyton x8
Brees x6
Rodgers x5
Rivers x4
Green, Roethlisberger, Favre, Palmer, Culpepper, McNabb, Ryan, Schaub, Gannon, Romo x1

That’s a pretty clear and unarguable top 5, isn’t it? If you want to round it out to the top 50, among those already listed Trent Green gets two more, Romo, Roethlisberger, and Brady one more, and Peyton *three* more for a total of 11. ELEVEN of the top 50 seasons in the past 13 years – that’s absurd! You have to go all the way to the 70s before Brees and Brady get to 8 appearances (at which point Peyton also hits 12).

• Tom

Awesome…as always, lists like these should confirm, to some degree, what we already know and can see…and it would be hard to argue that those 5 guys have been the best in the past 13 seasons.

• sacramento gold miners

These are the top five QBs using this specific formula according to frequency, and we appreciate the work involved. As has been mentioned before, the important component of winning hasn’t been used in this specific formula, and different people have different versions of the top five active QBs for any given period in time. I would have Roethlisberger fourth, ahead of Brees and Rivers, if we came up with a way to affix numerical value to team success.

I’m definitely in the camp of QBs having a significant role in winning, and if you were to track the past Super Bowls, the winning team usually had the better QB play. Brady was much sharper against Seattle than he had been versus the Giants, and New England benefited in the end.

• James

After playing around with the list some more I found another fun factoid: 2009 has *eight* of the top 31 seasons, when it should only have 2 or 3, especially when judging seasons relative to that year’s league average. No other season has more than 3 (although 2012 was very close – thank you multiple endpoints).

That also led me to discover that 2011 has 3 of the top 10 seasons, making it by far the most top heavy season in the study, matching the closeness and heated MVP debate that year.

• Steven Macks

If you sort by TAY/P Ov Avg, Manning’s 2004 comes in 1st and Daunte Culpepper’s 2004 comes in 19 (I counted lines, forgive me if I miscounted). This boggles my mind. 2004 Pep probably would have won the MVP that year if not for Manning. The league average TAY/P was probably somewhat inflated by two great seasons played the same year. I don’t know if that implies that both of those are all the greater for that fact or that implies some miserable quarterback play at the time.
Looking closer, there are only three seasons represented in the top 25 that don’t have another player in the top 25 that year: Rodgers’ 2014, Pennington’s 2002, and River’s 2008. Make of that what you will.

• Richie

Another “Top QB” list? Since Chase won’t do it, I’ll be releasing my 75,000 word manifesto on kickers later this year to break the trend.

• Bryan Frye

I actually have a 6000 word all time 53 man roster that I hope to post whenever Chase takes another vacation.

• Kibbles

It seems rude to mention Daunte Culpepper’s 2004 season on Chase’s site without at least giving him a courtesy link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=316

• Bryan Frye

Hey man, Chase inserts most of the links. I just send some tables and write a few words to surround them.

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