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These two men look important

The two best regular season quarterbacks of all time?

Yesterday, I explained the methodology behind the formula involved in ranking every quarterback season since 1960. Today, I’m going to present the career results. Converting season value to career value isn’t as simple as it might seem. Generally, we don’t want a player who was very good for 12 years to rank ahead of a quarterback who was elite for ten. Additionally, we don’t want to give significant penalties to players who struggled as rookies or hung around too long; we’re mostly concerned with the peak value of the player.

What I’ve historically done — and done here — is to give each quarterback 100% of his value or score from his best season, 95% of his score in his second best season, 90% of his score in his third best season, and so on. This rewards quarterbacks who played really well for a long time and doesn’t kill players with really poor rookie years or seasons late in their career. It also helps to prevent the quarterbacks who were compilers from dominating the top of the list. For visibility reasons, the table below displays only the top 25 quarterbacks initially, but you can change that number in the filter or click on the right arrow to see the remaining quarterbacks. [1]Note that while yesterday’s list was just from 1960 to 2013, the career list reflects every season in history, using the same methodology as used in GQBOAT IV.

Here’s how to read the table. Manning’s first year was in 1998, and his last in 2013. He’s had 8,740 “dropbacks” in his career, which include pass attempts, sacks, and rushing touchdowns. His career value — using the 100/95/90 formula [2]And including negative seasons. is 12,769, putting him at number one. His strength of schedule has been perfectly average over his career; as a reminder, the SOS column is shown just for reference, as SOS is already incorporated into these numbers (so while Tom Brady has had a schedule that’s 0.25 ANY/A tougher than average, that’s already incorporated into his 10,063 grade). Manning is not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame, of course, but I’ve listed the HOF status of each quarterback in the table. Note that I only have quarterback records going back to 1960; therefore, for quarterbacks who played before and during (or after) 1960, only their post-1960 record is displayed. In addition, SOS adjustments are only for the years beginning in 1960.

RkQuarterbackFirst YrLast YrDBValueSOSRecordWin %HOF
1Peyton Manning199820138740127690167-730.696not el.
2Tom Brady200020136943100630.25148-430.775not el.
3Dan Marino1983199986379850-0.01147-930.613YES
4Steve Young19851999455084870.0194-490.657YES
5Fran Tarkenton19611978708982890.18124-109-60.531YES
6Joe Montana1979199457247948-0.05117-470.713YES
7Drew Brees2001201370827947-0.01110-750.595not el.
8Johnny Unitas19561973558478830.1191-50-40.641YES
9Dan Fouts19731987593677600.1286-84-10.506YES
10Ken Anderson19711986489369180.0491-810.529NO
11Norm Van Brocklin1949196030466620-0.3310-20.833YES
12Brett Favre19912010107086503-0.03186-1120.624not el.
13Otto Graham194619552861650000YES
14Roger Staubach1969197932915994-0.0185-290.746YES
15Sonny Jurgensen1957197445895891-0.267-70-70.49YES
16Aaron Rodgers2005201332055784-0.0158-290.667not el.
17John Brodie19571973476856830.3569-73-80.487NO
18Sammy Baugh193719523049563200YES
19Sid Luckman193919501752543000YES
20Len Dawson19571975412948650.0394-56-80.62YES
21Philip Rivers2004201343604843-0.0979-490.617not el.
22John Hadl19621977499647250.1282-76-90.518NO
23Tony Romo20052013399347140.0163-450.583not el.
24John Elway19831998779946870.07148-82-10.643YES
25Y.A. Tittle1948196447954655-0.3335-14-30.702YES
26Joe Namath1965197739424354-0.0462-63-40.496YES
27Daryle Lamonica1963197427804197066-16-60.784NO
28Roman Gabriel19621977487841790.0786-64-70.57NO
29Boomer Esiason1984199755304173-0.0280-930.462NO
30Jim Hart19661984537541200.0287-88-50.497NO
31Bart Starr19561971350240440.1987-41-50.673YES
32Ben Roethlisberger20042013474739600.1395-470.669not el.
33Trent Green19972008400539440.0756-570.496NO
34Warren Moon19842000730338450.03102-1010.502YES
35Donovan McNabb19992011581238270.0298-62-10.612not el.
36Kurt Warner1998200943333809-0.2166-490.574not el.
37Jeff Garcia1999200938833695-0.1158-580.5not el.
38Troy Aikman19892000498335580.0794-710.57YES
39Steve McNair1995200748353553-0.0591-620.595NO
40Cecil Isbell19381942828334900NO
41Bert Jones1973198227973258-0.1647-490.49NO
42Bobby Layne1948196239973196-0.2514-150.483YES
43Rich Gannon1987200445293172-0.0976-560.576NO
44Charlie Conerly1948196130403100-0.228-3-10.708NO
45Daunte Culpepper19992009353130000.1341-590.41not el.
46Matt Schaub20042013335729970.0446-440.511not el.
47Jim Everett19861997518429030.0364-890.418NO
48Vinny Testaverde19872007713328680.0890-123-10.423NO
49Bob Griese1967198037712835-0.1392-56-30.619YES
50Carson Palmer20042013493328120.1864-730.467not el.
51Joe Theismann19741985395927570.0677-470.621NO
52Jim Kelly1986199651092745-0.18101-590.631YES
53Randall Cunningham19852001480827350.0782-52-10.611NO
54Arnie Herber193219451177269000YES
55Tommy Thompson194019501455265300NO
56Earl Morrall1956197629602651-0.0554-24-30.685NO
57Mark Brunell1994201150452635-0.0778-730.517not el.
58Terry Bradshaw1970198342402577-0.08107-510.677YES
59Greg Landry19681984263625770.2844-51-30.464NO
60Mark Rypien19882001271825200.0847-310.603NO
61Matt Ryan20082013345024790.0960-340.638not el.
62Johnny Lujack19481951877237500NO
63George Blanda1949197541922350-0.0645-380.542YES
64Milt Plum19571969262923130.0438-32-60.539NO
65Craig Morton1965198242032243-0.1881-62-10.566NO
66Ken Stabler1970198440782220-0.2196-49-10.661NO
67Bob Waterfield194519521667217300YES
68Chad Pennington20002010264021580.0644-370.543not el.
69Billy Kilmer1961197832212156-0.3161-52-10.539NO
70Brad Johnson1994200845852143-0.0172-530.576NO
71Michael Vick2001201333532132-0.0158-48-10.547not el.
72Dave Krieg19801998581820980.1998-770.56NO
73Steve Grogan1975199038752035-0.2975-600.556NO
74Doug Williams1978198926062020-0.0438-42-10.475NO
75Bernie Kosar1985199636431978-0.1353-54-10.495NO
76Frank Ryan1958197023441959-0.0257-24-30.696NO
77Danny White19761988319918450.1362-300.674NO
78Charley Johnson1961197536681797-0.0659-57-80.508NO
79Tommy Kramer19771990390817900.1554-560.491NO
80Doug Flutie19862005226816910.0338-280.576NO
81Ed Danowski19341941641168400NO
82Phil Simms1979199351301681095-640.597NO
83Matt Hasselbeck1999201353801676-0.0880-720.526not el.
84Steve DeBerg19781998532716680.0453-86-10.382NO
85Brian Sipe1974198336741613-0.0557-550.509NO
86Jim McMahon1982199628151610-0.0567-300.691NO
87Bernie Masterson19341940415160800NO
88Neil Lomax19811988352516080.0347-52-20.475NO
89Billy Wade19541966274415560.1128-25-20.527NO
90Russell Wilson2012201388215140.3124-80.75not el.
91Ron Jaworski1974198944961502-0.0373-69-10.514NO
92Wade Wilson19811998265414730.136-330.522NO
93Bill Munson19641979217814250.2327-34-50.447NO
94Jeff Hostetler1986199725621381-0.0151-320.614NO
95Cam Newton2011201316171361-0.0725-230.521not el.
96Joe Ferguson1973199048421340-0.0879-920.462NO
97Tom Flores1960196918881215031-32-40.493NO
98Bob Monnett19341938294120200NO
99Colin Kaepernick2011201370311680.3617-60.739not el.
100Jeff George1990200143271159-0.0446-780.371NO
101Steve Bartkowski19751986382311420.0859-680.465NO
102Jim Zorn19761987337911330.0644-620.415NO
103George Ratterman194719561464113100NO
104Bobby Thomason194919571483111900NO
105Elvis Grbac1994200125811090-0.0540-300.571NO
106Neil O'Donnell1991200334921031-0.1155-450.55NO
107Bobby Hebert1985199633001024-0.0456-440.56NO
108Keith Molesworth19321936227100600NO
109Ace Parker1937194673199900YES
110Ed Brown1954196522029870.0721-21-40.5NO
111Bill Kenney198019882630983-0.1834-430.442NO
112Jay Schroeder1985199430219630.1461-380.616NO
113Don Meredith196019682581943-0.3248-33-40.588NO
114Chris Chandler198820044397929-0.1267-850.441NO
115Ray Mallouf1941194932791300NO
116Bill Nelsen196319722057905-0.3140-31-30.561NO
117James Harris196919791260893-0.0825-160.61NO
118Pat Haden1976198114848810.0635-19-10.645NO
119Erik Kramer1987199924268750.0731-360.463NO
120Eli Manning200420135264874-0.0585-660.563not el.
121Babe Parilli1952196936228700.0345-33-70.571NO
122Norm Snead196119764710863-0.1752-99-70.351NO
123Frankie Albert19461952167184800NO
124Ed Hargett196919714608010.411-5-10.214NO
125David Garrard200220102477777-0.0639-370.513not el.
126Marc Bulger200220093433707-0.1841-540.432not el.
127Virgil Carter19681976848683-0.0616-140.533NO
128Steve Beuerlein198820033665680-0.1247-550.461NO
129Tuffy Leemans1941194322963200YES
130Scott Mitchell1992200125126280.0932-390.451NO
131Jake Plummer199720064651623-0.0369-670.507NO
132Brian Griese199820082994609-0.0445-380.542NO
133Stan Humphries198919972667607-0.0450-310.617NO
134Jim Harbaugh198720004297607-0.0766-740.471NO
135Dutch Clark1936193813459900YES
136Jake Delhomme199920113107594-0.1656-400.583not el.
137Nick Foles20122013634585-0.489-70.563not el.
138Frank Filchock1938195068458000NO
139Tobin Rote195019663203578-0.0613-5-10.711NO
140Paul Governali1946194850456400NO
141Drew Bledsoe1993200671945560.0198-950.508NO
142Mike Tomczak1985199924605510.0642-310.575NO
143Glenn Presnell1932193632449200NO
144Gus Frerotte199420083319489-0.1145-47-10.489NO
145Harry Newman1933193423546700NO
146Robert Griffin20122013924465-0.3412-160.429not el.
147Gary Danielson197719882122454-0.0928-31-10.475NO
148Gene Ronzani1934194517143200NO
149Matthew Stafford200920132622427-0.0724-370.393not el.
150Don Strock19741988818423-0.0416-60.727NO
  • Perhaps the most shocking name at the top of the list is Fran Tarkenton, but he gets a big strength of schedule boost (which is consistent with Doug’s findings from years ago). Tarkenton played during some terrible years for quarterbacks, faced a brutal schedule, and played outdoors in Minnesota and New York. His numbers today may look unimpressive, but I’m not too bothered by his top-five ranking here, even if it doesn’t jive with popular opinion. He played forever, which helps, but his efficiency numbers look outstanding once you account for strength of schedule. Had Minnesota won a couple of Super Bowls, his legacy would be quite different, but his regular season numbers would be the same. He does get a bit of a boost by having so many dropbacks, but Tarkenton wasn’t really a compiler. He had three seasons with over 1,000 yards of value added, four more with 800+ yards, three more with 700+ yards, and two more with 600+ yards above average. That’s a dozen years of very good to excellent play.
  • Here’s what I said about Joe Montana last time, when he checked in at #4: “[Montana’s] reputation as the game’s best clutch passer has overshadowed how elite of a quarterback he was whenever he was on the field. His high placement validates this system and shows why football analysts need to ignore volume based passing stats in favor of refined efficiency models.” Well, Brady’s 2012 vaulted him over Montana, and Tarkenton moved up because of SOS, but Montana still sits as the 6th best regular season quarterback ever. That’s pretty darn good, and it’s before you begin to add in his 2800+ yards of postseason value added.
  • I’m not too comfortable with how this list handles older players who simply didn’t get to throw enough passes. But frankly, how do you compare Otto Graham and his 2,861 dropbacks to Drew Brees and his 7,082? I’m pretty lost, but leave your suggestions in the comments and I’ll see what I can do. Surely Brees has provided more value to his teams because well, he’s been involved in another 4000+ plays. But Graham, Sid Luckman, Norm Van Brocklin, and Sammy Baugh could rank in your top ten and I wouldn’t argue with you. Roger Staubach played in more modern times, but he barely finished with more dropbacks than Baugh. Comparing rate versus volume guys is frustrating enough in modern times (say, Matthew Stafford vs. Russell Wilson), and that difficulty is only magnified when you compare across eras.
  • Brett Favre was a great quarterback, but I have a hard time putting him in my top ten. This list seems to confirm that feeling, and that’s before putting Luckman, Baugh, and Graham ahead of him (and, I think, the better argument probably goes in favor of doing just that). He’s pretty clearly behind Dan Marino in my eyes, but I’m willing to hear counter-arguments.
  • Ken Anderson, to nobody’s surprise, ranks as the top quarterback passed over by the Hall of Fame. He even moved up from #12 to #10 this time around, after including the SOS adjustment. Anderson faced a slightly harder than average schedule, which was enough to move him ahead of Van Brocklin (note that for Brocklin, his -0.33 SOS grade consists of just one season — 1960 [3]In all seasons before 1960, there was no SOS adjustment. — but Anderson was only 16 yards behind NVB last time around) and Favre, who had a slightly easier than average schedule.
  • The Hall of Fame needs more 49ers quarterbacks like it needs more Steelers, but John Brodie is another glaring omission.
  • Tony Romo doesn’t just rank ahead of Troy Aikman, but he also has abetter career winning percentage. I bet you didn’t know that. [4]Of course, Aikman provided slightly more value than Romo in the postseason.
  • Regarding John Elway’s 24th-place ranking, you can read some more thoughts I have on Elway here.
  • The anti-Tarkenton is Kurt Warner, who comes in at #34 on this list. Warner had one of the easiest schedules and played in a passer-friendly era, but I doubt he’ll ever make one of my top 25 lists. Frankly, he’s probably too high at 34, which ignores that he played the vast majority of his games in domes and had four Hall of Fame caliber receivers (and Marshall Faulk) on his teams.

What stands out to you? What suggestions/modifications do you have?

References

References
1 Note that while yesterday’s list was just from 1960 to 2013, the career list reflects every season in history, using the same methodology as used in GQBOAT IV.
2 And including negative seasons.
3 In all seasons before 1960, there was no SOS adjustment.
4 Of course, Aikman provided slightly more value than Romo in the postseason.
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