The Greatest QB of All-Time IV, Part III: Playoff Results

The original standard for postseason success.

On Wednesday, I explained the methodology for grading each quarterback in each season. Yesterday, I came up with an all-time career list of the best quarterbacks based on their regular season play. Today, a look at playoff performances.

Using the same formula, we can grade each quarterback in each game and adjust for era¹. However, it should be obvious that the sample sizes here are incredibly small, and the stats are even less likely to tell the true story when looking at just one game. Strength of schedule becomes a significant factor here, as well. But, caveats aside, there’s a lot we can do with playoff data. For example, we can rank every quarterback performance in Super Bowl history:

Rk	QB	Tm	Opp	SB	W/L	Att	Pyd	TD	INT	CY	CYP	VAL
1	Joe Montana	SFO	MIA	19	W	35	331	3	0	406	11	272
2	Steve Young	SFO	SDG	29	W	36	325	6	0	431	11.1	264
3	Troy Aikman	DAL	BUF	27	W	30	273	4	0	381	12.3	258
4	Joe Montana	SFO	DEN	24	W	29	297	5	0	397	13.3	256
5	Kurt Warner	STL	TEN	34	W	45	414	2	0	447	9.7	225
6	Jim Plunkett	OAK	PHI	15	W	21	261	3	0	320	14.5	219
7	Phil Simms	NYG	DEN	21	W	25	268	3	0	323	12.4	216
8	Doug Williams	WAS	DEN	22	W	29	340	4	1	358	11.6	211
9	John Elway	DEN	ATL	33	W	29	336	1	1	331	11	181
10	Jim McMahon	CHI	NWE	20	W	20	256	0	0	284	11.6	174
11	Joe Montana	SFO	CIN	23	W	36	357	2	0	351	9	165
12	Jake Delhomme	CAR	NWE	38	L	33	323	3	0	325	8.8	146
13	Tom Brady	NWE	CAR	38	W	48	354	3	1	369	7.7	141
14	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	DAL	13	W	30	318	4	1	266	7.8	140
15	Mark Rypien	WAS	BUF	26	W	33	292	2	1	287	8.7	128
16	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	RAM	14	W	21	309	2	3	214	10.2	123
17	Bart Starr	GNB	KAN	1	W	23	250	2	1	224	8.7	121
18	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	DAL	10	W	19	209	2	0	200	9.5	121
19	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	PIT	45	W	39	304	3	0	348	8.3	118
20	Brett Favre	GNB	NWE	31	W	27	246	2	0	268	8.1	111
21	Drew Brees	NOR	IND	44	W	39	288	2	0	321	8	107
22	Ken Stabler	OAK	MIN	11	W	19	180	1	0	183	8.7	103
23	Troy Aikman	DAL	PIT	30	W	23	209	1	0	218	8.7	91
24	Kurt Warner	ARI	PIT	43	L	43	377	3	1	329	7.3	87
25	John Elway	DEN	NYG	21	L	37	304	1	1	270	6.5	81
26	Bart Starr	GNB	OAK	2	W	24	202	1	0	182	6.5	79
27	Joe Montana	SFO	CIN	16	W	22	157	1	0	188	7.8	76
28	Tom Brady	NWE	PHI	39	W	33	236	2	0	259	7.4	75
29	Joe Namath	NYJ	BAL	3	W	28	206	0	0	195	6.5	68
30	Peyton Manning	IND	NOR	44	L	45	333	1	1	308	6.8	67
31	Ken Anderson	CIN	SFO	16	L	34	300	2	2	254	6.4	67
32	Jeff Hostetler	NYG	BUF	25	W	32	222	1	0	234	6.9	66
33	Bob Lee	MIN	OAK	11	L	9	81	1	0	100	10.9	65
34	Roger Staubach	DAL	MIA	6	W	19	119	2	0	140	6.7	63
35	Steve McNair	TEN	STL	34	L	36	214	0	0	208	5.6	61
36	Eli Manning	NYG	NWE	46	W	40	296	1	0	302	7	61
37	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	MIN	9	W	14	96	1	0	104	6.5	59
38	Kurt Warner	STL	NWE	36	L	44	365	1	2	287	6	55
39	Roger Staubach	DAL	PIT	13	L	30	228	3	1	161	4.6	53
40	Jim Kelly	BUF	NYG	25	L	30	212	0	0	205	6.6	52
41	Jim Plunkett	RAI	WAS	18	W	25	172	1	0	174	6.4	48
42	Roger Staubach	DAL	DEN	12	W	25	183	1	0	142	4.8	45
43	Brad Johnson	TAM	OAK	37	W	34	215	2	1	210	6.2	45
44	Earl Morrall	BAL	DAL	5	W	15	147	0	1	102	6.8	43
45	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	ARI	43	W	30	256	1	1	209	6.5	37
46	Bob Griese	MIA	MIN	8	W	7	73	0	0	63	7.9	34
47	Brett Favre	GNB	DEN	32	L	42	256	3	1	240	5.6	34
48	Daryle Lamonica	OAK	GNB	2	L	34	208	2	1	181	4.9	32
49	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	MIA	8	L	28	182	0	1	141	4.5	31
50	Gary Kubiak	DEN	NYG	21	L	4	48	0	0	45	10.2	25
51	Troy Aikman	DAL	BUF	28	W	27	207	0	1	159	5.5	21
52	Tom Brady	NWE	NYG	46	L	41	276	2	1	261	6.1	20
53	Len Dawson	KAN	GNB	1	L	27	211	1	1	135	4.2	19
54	Trent Dilfer	BAL	NYG	35	W	25	153	1	0	154	5.5	17
55	Tom Brady	NWE	STL	36	W	27	145	1	0	154	5.3	14
56	Len Dawson	KAN	MIN	4	W	17	142	1	1	97	4.9	10
57	Gary Kubiak	DEN	SFO	24	L	3	28	0	0	25	6.8	7
58	Frank Reich	BUF	WAS	26	L	1	11	0	0	10	9.4	5
59	Steve Young	SFO	DEN	24	W	3	20	0	0	20	6.5	5
60	Vince Ferragamo	RAM	PIT	14	L	25	212	0	1	127	4.4	4
61	Danny White	DAL	DEN	12	W	2	5	0	0	3	1.1	4
62	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	PIT	40	L	49	273	1	1	234	4.5	3
63	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	GNB	45	L	40	263	2	2	211	5.1	2
64	Bill Musgrave	SFO	SDG	29	W	1	6	0	0	6	5.2	0
65	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	OAK	11	L	35	205	1	2	132	3.7	-4
66	Babe Parilli	NYJ	BAL	3	W	1	0	0	0	0	-0.4	-5
67	Zeke Bratkowski	GNB	KAN	1	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.8	-5
68	Jay Schroeder	WAS	DEN	22	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.6	-6
69	Pete Beathard	KAN	GNB	1	L	5	17	0	0	7	1.3	-6
70	Tony Banks	BAL	NYG	35	W	1	0	0	0	-1	-0.7	-6
71	Eli Manning	NYG	NWE	42	W	34	255	2	1	182	4.9	-8
72	Bob Griese	MIA	WAS	7	W	11	88	1	1	44	3.4	-8
73	Peyton Manning	IND	CHI	41	W	38	247	1	1	184	4.7	-10
74	John Elway	DEN	GNB	32	W	22	123	0	1	98	4.3	-12
75	Don Strock	MIA	WAS	17	L	3	0	0	0	-3	-0.9	-17
76	Steve Fuller	CHI	NWE	20	W	4	0	0	0	-3	-0.6	-23
77	Ron Jaworski	PHI	OAK	15	L	38	291	1	3	146	3.8	-28
78	Joe Theismann	WAS	MIA	17	W	23	143	2	2	74	2.8	-33
79	Dan Marino	MIA	SFO	19	L	50	318	1	2	219	4.1	-33
80	Elvis Grbac	SFO	SDG	29	W	1	0	0	0	-30	-28.2	-36
81	Johnny Unitas	BAL	NYJ	3	L	24	110	0	1	65	2.7	-37
82	David Woodley	MIA	WAS	17	L	14	97	1	1	28	1.9	-37
83	Donovan McNabb	PHI	NWE	39	L	51	357	3	3	249	4.5	-40
84	Norris Weese	DEN	DAL	12	L	10	22	0	0	-18	-1.6	-42
85	Gale Gilbert	SDG	SFO	29	L	6	30	0	1	-17	-2.7	-44
86	Gary Cuozzo	MIN	KAN	4	L	3	16	0	1	-32	-9.6	-46
87	Johnny Unitas	BAL	DAL	5	W	9	88	1	2	-12	-1.3	-47
88	Tom Brady	NWE	NYG	42	L	48	266	1	0	219	4.1	-53
89	Bob Griese	MIA	DAL	6	L	23	134	0	1	30	1.3	-58
90	Boomer Esiason	CIN	SFO	23	L	25	144	0	1	78	2.6	-65
91	Jim Kelly	BUF	DAL	28	L	50	260	0	1	182	3.4	-66
92	Stan Humphries	SDG	SFO	29	L	49	275	1	2	189	3.7	-67
93	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	SEA	40	W	21	123	0	2	45	2	-67
94	Tony Eason	NWE	CHI	20	L	6	0	0	0	-40	-5.6	-72
95	Roger Staubach	DAL	PIT	10	L	24	204	2	3	37	1.2	-78
96	Chris Chandler	ATL	DEN	33	L	35	219	1	3	91	2.5	-79
97	Joe Kapp	MIN	KAN	4	L	25	183	0	2	39	1.4	-81
98	John Elway	DEN	WAS	22	L	38	257	1	3	93	2.2	-90
99	Rex Grossman	CHI	IND	41	L	28	165	1	2	54	1.9	-90
100	Steve Grogan	NWE	CHI	20	L	30	177	1	2	56	1.6	-105
101	Jim Kelly	BUF	DAL	27	L	7	82	0	2	-72	-9.3	-107
102	Joe Theismann	WAS	RAI	18	L	35	243	0	2	73	1.8	-112
103	Craig Morton	DAL	BAL	5	L	26	127	1	3	-2	-0.1	-112
104	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	PIT	9	L	26	102	0	3	-33	-1.3	-127
105	Earl Morrall	BAL	NYJ	3	L	17	71	0	3	-64	-3.8	-136
106	Frank Reich	BUF	DAL	27	L	31	194	1	2	16	0.5	-137
107	Neil O'Donnell	PIT	DAL	30	L	49	239	1	3	122	2.3	-147
108	Billy Kilmer	WAS	MIA	7	L	28	104	0	3	-48	-1.6	-159
109	Drew Bledsoe	NWE	GNB	31	L	48	253	2	4	74	1.4	-178
110	John Elway	DEN	SFO	24	L	26	108	0	2	-22	-0.7	-182
111	Rich Gannon	OAK	TAM	37	L	44	272	2	5	35	0.7	-212
112	Craig Morton	DEN	DAL	12	L	15	39	0	4	-157	-9	-214
113	Jim Kelly	BUF	WAS	26	L	58	275	2	4	30	0.5	-269
114	Kerry Collins	NYG	BAL	35	L	39	112	0	4	-124	-2.9	-335

If you type Montana’s name into the search box, you can see that he has the 1st, 4th, 11th and 27th best performance in Super Bowl history. The best performance in a losing effort goes to Jake Delhomme, who shredded the Patriots secondary in the second half of Super Bowl XXXVIII (he began the game 1 for 9 for 1 yard). The worst performance in a winning effort, unsurprisingly, goes to Ben Roethlisberger in Super Bowl XL, although Joe Theismann against the Dolphins gets an honorable mention. Worst performance overall goes to Kerry Collins, although Craig Morton’s 4 interceptions and 39 yards on 15 attempts against his former team in Super Bowl XII could give Collins a run for his money.

What about best championship game performances in the pre-Super Bowl era?

Rk	QB	Tm	Opp	Year	W/L	Att	Pyd	TD	INT	CY	CYP	VAL
1	Tobin Rote	DET	CLE	1957	W	19	280	4	0	380	19	304
2	Sid Luckman	CHI	WAS	1943	W	26	286	5	0	386	14.8	248
3	Otto Graham	CLE	RAM	1950	W	33	298	4	1	292	7.7	236
4	Sammy Baugh	WAS	CHI	1937	W	33	335	3	1	320	9.7	228
5	Harry Newman	NYG	CHI	1933	L	19	209	2	1	204	10.7	197
6	Charlie Conerly	NYG	CHI	1956	W	10	195	2	0	232	22.1	192
7	Bart Starr	GNB	NYG	1961	W	17	164	3	0	224	13.2	152
8	Otto Graham	CLE	DET	1954	W	12	163	3	2	193	12.9	135
9	Frank Ryan	CLE	BAL	1964	W	18	206	3	1	212	11.2	132
10	Norm Van Brocklin	RAM	CLE	1951	W	6	128	1	0	148	24.7	129
11	Tobin Rote	SDG	BOS	1963	W	15	173	2	0	226	13.1	127
12	Sid Luckman	CHI	NYG	1941	W	12	160	0	0	160	13.3	125
13	George Blanda	HOU	LAC	1960	W	31	301	3	0	361	11.6	123
14	Charlie Conerly	NYG	BAL	1958	W	14	187	1	0	190	11.6	122
15	Arnie Herber	GNB	NYG	1938	L	14	123	1	0	143	10.2	117
16	Johnny Unitas	BAL	NYG	1959	W	29	264	2	0	267	7.4	115
17	Charlie O'Rourke	CHI	WAS	1942	L	7	128	0	0	128	18.3	105

But we can look at more than just individual game performances. After grading each quarterback in each post-season game, we can then come up with a career post-season rating. There’s an argument to be made for placing more weight on the most important games; what I’ve done in the table below is created an unweighted post-season value added grade and a weighted grade, with the conference championship game counting twice as much as an early-round playoff game, and the Super Bowl (or the championship game in the pre-SB era) counting for three times as much. Here are the career post-season ratings for each quarterback with at least 175 career playoff attempts², sorted by their weighted value. I’ve also listed their number of playoff games, their playoff record (in starts), and their converted yards per play during the playoffs (unweighted):

QB	G	Rec	VALUE	WTVALUE	ATT	CYP
Joe Montana	23	16-7	1810	3777	780	6.9
Kurt Warner	13	9-4	1219	2081	482	7.6
Terry Bradshaw	19	14-5	1108	1955	483	5.9
Troy Aikman	16	11-4	746	1877	536	6.2
Bart Starr	10	9-1	727	1766	238	7.1
Steve Young	20	8-6	711	1347	507	5.8
Peyton Manning	19	9-10	1142	1330	746	6.6
Brett Favre	24	13-11	795	1292	828	5.9
John Elway	22	14-7	942	1268	698	5.9
Ken Stabler	13	7-5	794	1155	381	5.7
Drew Brees	9	5-4	764	1025	408	7.2
Jim Plunkett	10	8-2	369	1018	300	5.7
Tom Brady	22	16-6	531	950	836	5.7
Daryle Lamonica	11	4-5	643	884	279	6.2
Aaron Rodgers	6	4-2	517	756	240	7.4
Mark Rypien	8	5-2	313	756	242	6
Otto Graham	12	4-3	232	686	334	4.3
Ken Anderson	6	2-4	368	618	188	6
Bernie Kosar	9	3-4	412	569	285	6.1
Len Dawson	8	5-3	249	552	216	5
Matt Hasselbeck	11	5-6	391	496	426	5.9
Dan Marino	18	8-10	395	494	711	5.3
Roger Staubach	19	11-6	303	463	470	4
Jake Delhomme	8	5-3	178	408	243	5.6
Phil Simms	10	6-4	-99	365	302	4.2
Ben Roethlisberger	14	10-4	222	307	447	5.6
Eli Manning	11	8-3	223	302	381	5.9
Doug Williams	7	4-3	-87	274	176	4.1
Johnny Unitas	9	6-2	175	243	247	4.6
Dan Fouts	7	3-4	201	223	299	5.2
Vinny Testaverde	5	2-3	205	212	196	6
Bob Griese	12	6-5	124	181	224	4.2
Joe Theismann	8	6-2	391	162	237	6.1
Warren Moon	10	3-7	141	141	427	5.1
Philip Rivers	7	3-4	144	66	245	5.8
Steve McNair	10	5-5	-142	43	331	4
Randall Cunningham	10	3-6	77	41	395	4.8
Jeff Garcia	6	2-4	-37	-37	228	4.7
Jack Kemp	6	2-4	-21	-52	179	2.9
Wade Wilson	6	2-3	-22	-75	211	4.5
Billy Kilmer	7	2-5	108	-76	184	4.3
Vince Ferragamo	7	3-3	-105	-76	201	3.9
Brad Johnson	7	4-3	-241	-84	234	3.8
Jim Harbaugh	5	2-3	-197	-109	178	3.7
Danny White	13	5-5	-119	-171	382	4.2
Chad Pennington	6	2-4	-200	-200	233	4.3
Jake Plummer	6	2-4	-161	-239	207	4.2
Dave Krieg	11	3-6	-53	-280	308	4.6
Neil O'Donnell	9	3-4	-53	-285	290	4.7
Rich Gannon	9	4-3	83	-343	257	5.1
Ron Jaworski	9	4-4	-56	-354	292	4.1
Mark Brunell	11	5-5	-169	-363	325	4.2
Jim Everett	5	2-3	-195	-383	183	3.7
Fran Tarkenton	11	6-5	-109	-435	314	3.3
Donovan McNabb	16	9-7	-148	-440	628	4.6
Joe Flacco	9	5-4	-328	-446	269	4.2
Stan Humphries	6	3-3	-393	-487	240	3.1
George Blanda	8	2-2	-236	-540	197	2.5
Kerry Collins	7	3-4	-42	-571	252	4.8
Jim Kelly	17	9-8	-14	-822	570	4.7
Craig Morton	12	5-5	-446	-938	251	2.1
Drew Bledsoe	7	3-3	-634	-1104	269	2.5

Manning and Brady.

Not a lot of surprises here. Joe Montana’s Super Bowl performances were legendary, and Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, and Bart Starr became legends based on their playoff performances. Fran Tarkenton, Jim Kelly and Donovan McNabb had their playoff struggles, and come up towards the bottom of the list. Joe Flacco, for all his bravado, has been a miserable quarterback in the postseason.

One thing that might jump out at you is seeing Peyton Manning ahead of Tom Brady as a playoff quarterback. But as Brady has become a more dominant regular season quarterback, his playoff success has faded. Whereas at one time in his career Manning had the choker label — and to some, whenever he makes a mistake in the playoffs, he re-earns such label — he’s had a number of dominant playoff performances. Take a look at the career numbers for both Manning and Brady in the post-season:

QB	CMP	ATT	YD	TD	INT	SK	SKYD	Rsh	Ryd	RTD	Fum	Fum Rec	NetFum	CY	CY/P	ANY/A	VALUE
Brady	499	793	5285	38	20	40	258	53	80	3	8	3	5	4797	5.7	5.9	531
Manning	453	718	5389	29	19	25	194	23	27	3	3	1	2	4920	6.6	6.6	1142

It’s still early, but Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have been outstanding in the postseason. Kurt Warner was an excellent post-season quarterback, which is what will likely push him over the edge as a Hall of Fame candidate.

What sticks out to you when looking at the postseason data?

Note that I do not have individual playoff sack data prior to 2008, so I am using pro-rated sack numbers based on team sack data. [↩]
Attempts includes passing attempts, sacks, and rushing touchdowns [↩]

Tagged as: GQBOAT, Joe Montana, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Playoffs, Tom Brady

{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }

Danish August 31, 2012 at 5:09 am

“Big game performer” is to me a guy who elevates his play for these big games. I think subtracting each player’s reg.season value from the playoffvalue gives us an idea of which player stepped up his game when the lights were brightest.

Danish August 31, 2012 at 5:29 am: Of course I don’t mean the raw value – I mean change the baselines alltogether. These ratings are, I assume, made with regular season league averages. I would change those baselines to regular season player averages.

I mean if Peyton Manning shows up to a playoff game and plays like the 10th ranked regular season QB, I don’t think we want to count that as a good big game performance, but since this system will in fact give him a slightly positive score for a game like that.

Richie August 31, 2012 at 4:51 pm: Eh, the “when the lights were brightest” argument never holds a whole lot of water with me. This almost falls into the Splits Happen category.

Troy Aikman played in 15 postseason games and started 165 regular season games. Less than 10% of his career was played in the playoffs. Obviously he was a good QB in both places, but there’s just no way that he put any less effort into performing during the regular season. The other thing is that, in Aikman’s case, of his 15 postseason games, only 4 of them were played on the road, which means that he was presumably playing for the better team 67% of the time, plus I think they were favored in all 3 Super Bowls, so he was really expected to win 73% of his games. The deck was stacked in his favor.

Chase Stuart August 31, 2012 at 9:57 am

My guess is by doing this, you’ll end up saying Mark Sanchez was a better playoff quarterback than Joe Montana. Sanchez averaged 7.1 CY/P in the playoffs and has a value of +274 (unweighted) in six playoff games.

Tim Truemper August 31, 2012 at 2:35 pm

“Not a lot of surprises here.” True enough, however I am surprised to see Danny White, Vince Ferragamo and Jim Kelly so low–either by just being in the negative for AV and weighted AV (the first two) or by the magnitude of Kelly’s AV/weighted AV. Their performances in losses must have been abysmal given all three had some strong games when winning in the playoffs. Also, not sure how Drew Bledsoe’s playoff career can be lower than Craig Morton’s! Then again, I may be overestimating without the hard numbers his horrible numbers in his SB starts.

Richie August 31, 2012 at 4:56 pm: Yeah, I was also surprised to see Kelly ranked so low. Yeah, he lost 4 Super Bowls, but that also means he had 4+ pretty successful playoff runs.

Looking at his playoff game log: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KellJi00/gamelog/post/ looks like he only had 7 games with a QB rating of 80+ out of 17 games. Only 3 games with 100+.

Mark Frederick August 31, 2012 at 4:30 pm

Just to play devil’s advocate, what if we said the most important games were the earlier rounds of the playoffs? One could argue that for your team to win the Super Bowl you must first get there, and if as a QB you played exceptionally to drag your team along in the playoffs, you still give them some chance even if you have a subpar Super Bowl.

I would love to see a ranking to see which QB’s performed best weighting the earlier playoff games heavily and the championship/Super Bowl games less. Maybe giving a chance to have Fran Tarkenton and Jim Kelly look good?

{ 1 trackback }

Is Tom Brady the greatest QB of all time? | Colt Following

The Greatest QB of All-Time IV, Part III: Playoff Results

Recent Posts

Recent Comments

Sign up for the Football Perspective Newsletter

Archives

Categories

FootballPerspective.com

Friends of FP

Football Perspect Feedburner